[Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 临期低价转债风险或已基本定价 ——可转债周报 20251213 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周受外部信用事件扰动，部分低价临期转债显著回调，市场正逐步定价偿债风险。鉴于宏观 稳健与债底坚实，若因担忧过度导致超调或提供布局良机，整体信用风险可控。当周 A 股窄幅 震荡，创业板及中盘风格相对占优，通信、军工等科技制造板块回暖明显，周期类行业相对较 弱，板块拥挤度呈分化特征。可转债市场整体略有走强，大盘与小盘表现优于中盘，估值整体 拉伸，隐含波动率维持高位，行情主要由高价券及科技板块带动。一级市场发行平稳，审核有 序推进，条款博弈仍是焦点，下修分化与强赎频现并存，需警惕情绪扰动对估值结构的影响。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 临期低价转债风险或已基本定价 ...

Core Insights - The automotive sector is transitioning from a purely domestic demand-driven model to a multifaceted approach that includes overseas expansion, premiumization, and smart technology integration, with a focus on AI as a key growth driver for 2026 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Outlook - Domestic demand for passenger vehicles may face pressure, with a projected registration volume of 22.6 million units in 2026, down 3.4% year-on-year. Exports are expected to reach 6.8 million units, up 17.2% year-on-year, while wholesale volume is forecasted at 29.41 million units, a slight increase of 0.7% [6][32]. - Heavy-duty trucks are anticipated to see a domestic retail sales volume of 695,000 units in 2026, down 13.2% year-on-year, with exports of 365,000 units, up 10% [6][40]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to continue its recovery, with total sales projected at 23.44 million units in 2026, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [6]. Main Line 1: Overseas Expansion - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) exports. Excluding China, the U.S., and Japan, the potential for EV exports is expected to triple, with a forecast of 3.38 million units exported in 2026 [7]. - Domestic parts manufacturers are leveraging their technological and cost advantages to penetrate global supply chains, particularly benefiting from the growth of the European EV market [7]. - Heavy-duty truck exports are projected to reach 365,000 units in 2026, while bus exports are expected to grow by 15% [7]. Main Line 2: High-End Vehicles and Domestic Substitution - The high-end and luxury passenger vehicle markets are less affected by economic downturns, presenting opportunities for domestic substitution [8]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with significant growth anticipated in areas such as magnesium alloys and smart driving components [8]. - The penetration rate of domestic parts in certain categories, such as seats and airbags, is expected to increase from approximately 10% to over 30% [8]. Main Line 3: Embracing AI - The production of humanoid robots is entering a new phase, with significant growth expected in 2026 as Tesla prepares for mass production [9]. - The liquid cooling sector is poised for explosive growth, with strong applicability in both automotive and server cooling systems [9]. - The smart driving market is entering a phase of affordability, with penetration rates expected to accelerate between 10% and 50% [9]. Investment Recommendations - The automotive sector is advised to focus on identifying turning points in domestic demand while leveraging opportunities in overseas markets, high-end vehicle segments, and AI-driven transformations [10].

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while October's figure was revised to -105,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5%, marking the highest level since October 2021[6][9] - The labor participation rate increased to 62.5%, reflecting a return of workers to the job market[9] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wage growth slowed to 0.1% month-on-month, significantly below the expected 0.3%[9] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased to 3.5%, down from 3.8%[9] - Core service inflation pressures are easing as wage growth decelerates[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current employment data does not indicate a need for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[9] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts until at least Q1 2026, with a potential cumulative cut of at least 50 basis points by year-end[9][32] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership in May 2026 may lead to a more dovish approach to monetary policy, depending on economic conditions[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH) is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Zhuhai Guanyu's subsidiary, Zhejiang Guanyu, has introduced external investors through a capital increase, with the investment from Yufu High-Precision Fund amounting to 200 million yuan for an additional registered capital of 114.92 million yuan. Post this capital increase, Zhuhai Guanyu's shareholding in Zhejiang Guanyu decreased from 62.04% to 59.07%, but the company retains its controlling position [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 4.224 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, up 62.49% year-on-year and 92.17% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the high shipment growth of consumer batteries, particularly from major clients, and the gradual ramp-up of new products. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 25.13%, with expectations for further improvement in consumer battery margins due to increased client share and operational efficiency [12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhuhai Guanyu's current stock price is 22.29 yuan, with a total share capital of 113.207 million shares. The net asset per share is 6.30 yuan, and the highest and lowest prices in the last 12 months were 29.18 yuan and 11.45 yuan, respectively [8] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.224 billion yuan, with a gross profit of approximately 1.065 billion yuan, leading to a gross margin of 25.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, with a significant increase in profitability driven by improved client share and cost control [12] - The financial projections for 2025 estimate total revenue of 13.502 billion yuan, with a net profit of 782 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 32.28 [16] Market Outlook - The outlook for Zhuhai Guanyu remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by overseas consumer clients and opportunities arising from AI trends and wearable product iterations. The company is also expected to benefit from changes in accounting policies related to depreciation, providing additional profit flexibility [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9] Core Insights - The real estate industry continues to show weak fundamentals, with significant year-on-year declines in sales and construction activities. The central economic work conference emphasizes "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating that policy thresholds are approaching, which may open up policy windows for intervention [2][12] - In November 2025, the sales volume and area of commercial housing decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing pressure from high bases and declining market sentiment. The report anticipates that December will also face significant year-on-year pressure [12][12] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on quality real estate companies with low inventory, strong regional presence, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales amount and area decreased by 11.1% and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively. November saw a more pronounced decline, with sales amount and area down by 25.1% and 17.3% [12][12] - The average sales price of new homes in November was 9,097 yuan per square meter, down 9.5% year-on-year, while the average price of residential properties fell by 11.1% [12][12] Construction Activity - New construction area in the first eleven months of 2025 decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with November's decline at 27.6%. The report suggests that the construction sector may have entered an oversold state [12][12] - The completed construction area also saw a decline of 18.0% year-on-year, with November's figure down 25.5% [12][12] Investment Trends - The total funds available to real estate companies decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, with November seeing a sharp decline of 32.5%. This includes a 10.4% drop in domestic loans and a 30.7% decrease in self-raised funds [12][12] - Real estate development investment completed in the first eleven months of 2025 fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with November's investment down 30.3% [12][12] Market Outlook - The report forecasts that the real estate industry will remain in an adjustment phase throughout 2025, with an expected annual sales decline of around 10% and construction activity down by approximately 20% [12][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a slight decline of 0.91%, ranking 17th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, with a market capitalization share of 6.73% [2][4]. - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12A rocket is expected to catalyze the commercial aerospace sector, with a focus on core suppliers in the satellite application segment [6][48]. - The satellite super factory, capable of producing 1,000 satellites annually, is set to enhance the scalability of the commercial aerospace industry [19][22]. - OpenAI's release of the new GPT-5.2 model marks a significant advancement in general intelligence and coding capabilities, with implications for the AI sector [29][31]. - The introduction of the VIO-40K quantum processor by QuantWare represents a breakthrough in quantum computing, supporting the creation of chips with 10,000 qubits [37][42]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector's overall performance showed a minor retraction, with a 0.91% decline amidst significant market fluctuations [4][13]. - Active trading was noted in commercial aerospace and space computing-related stocks [2][15]. Key Developments - The Long March 12A rocket is scheduled for its first launch on December 17, 2025, aiming to achieve reusable rocket technology [6][48]. - The satellite super factory in Wenchang is expected to revolutionize satellite production, allowing for seamless integration from manufacturing to launch [22][23]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model has demonstrated superior performance in various benchmarks, indicating a competitive edge in the AI landscape [29][31]. - The VIO-40K quantum processor's architecture allows for a significant increase in qubit density, paving the way for practical quantum computing applications [37][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][51] Core Insights - As of the end of November, the company's PE ratio stands at 30.30x, which is at the 18th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of investment value [2][6][51] - The report anticipates that with the continued enhancement of the mutual market access policies in Hong Kong's capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuations [2][6][51] - Projected revenues and other income for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 29.7 billion, 32.1 billion, and 34.6 billion HKD, respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders expected to be 17 billion, 17.8 billion, and 19.5 billion HKD, corresponding to PE valuations of 30.0, 28.7, and 26.2 times [2][6][51] Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market has shown an upward trend, supported by domestic policy drivers, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 28.9% and 25.3% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [11][16] - The average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong stock exchange was 230.7 billion HKD in November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.8% despite a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% [16][11] - The IPO scale in Hong Kong saw significant growth in November, with 11 new stocks listed, raising a total of 41.8 billion HKD, marking a 363% year-on-year increase [30][31] Business Segments - In the cash market, the average daily trading volume for Northbound trading was 243.2 billion HKD, while Southbound trading was 97.9 billion HKD, with both showing year-on-year increases despite month-on-month declines [16][11] - The derivatives market experienced a decrease in trading volume, with futures ADV at 637,000 contracts and options ADV at 1,014,000 contracts in November, reflecting a month-on-month decline [20][11] - The LME daily trading volume increased to 807,000 contracts in November, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [26][11] Economic Context - The domestic economic environment is showing signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI for November at 49.20%, indicating a slight improvement [44][46] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have enhanced liquidity in overseas markets, with expectations for further rate reductions in 2026 [46][44]

Industry Overview - The service consumption sector in China has significant growth potential, with the current GDP per capita exceeding $13,000, indicating a shift from goods to service consumption as the economy matures [4][7][24] - The proportion of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented service consumption in China is relatively low, particularly in cultural, leisure, and health sectors, suggesting substantial room for improvement [4][7][24] - Recent government policies at both central and local levels have been introduced to support service consumption, focusing on the needs of the elderly and Generation Z, which are expected to drive growth in health, tourism, and new consumption sectors [4][7][24] Tourism and Travel - The domestic tourism market is projected to grow significantly, with 4.998 billion trips expected in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [8][46] - The government has implemented various supportive policies to enhance tourism, including the issuance of travel vouchers and promotional activities to stimulate demand [8][58] - The tourism industry is undergoing consolidation, with companies optimizing resources and enhancing operational efficiency to drive high-quality development [8][58] Local Lifestyle - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, although there is significant market differentiation, with high-end dining facing challenges while mass dining remains robust [10][10] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing growth driven by delivery services, with leading brands expanding their store presence despite potential challenges from subsidy reductions [10][10] - Meituan is facing increased competition in the delivery market, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and service quality to enhance long-term value [10][10] Education and Employment - The education sector is gradually recovering, with leading institutions expected to gain market share due to their brand strength and resource capabilities [11][11] - The human resources sector is seeing structural demand recovery, with AI technology providing opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [11][11] Summary of Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in sectors that combine valuation safety margins with growth logic, particularly in health, tourism, and new consumption areas driven by demographic changes [4][7][24]

行业研究丨深度报告丨航天航空与国防 [Table_Title] 转型，增长的信心—— 国防军工行业 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年，内装、军贸和军转民行情相继成为国防军工的主线行情，总体来讲，第二成长曲线成 为选股的核心矛盾，因此我们提出一种自下而上、以第二成长曲线为核心的新投资框架。展望 2026 年，我们判断军转民、军贸仍旧为国防军工行业投资主线。国防军工开支持续稳定增长背 景下，内装仍将随军费稳定增长，结合政策导向、装备建设现状、技术发展方向，我们判断网 络信息体系建设、无人化智能化作战集群、网络空间与电磁频谱对抗、以及弹药消耗等方向或 将是后续建设的弹性领域。依据前述投资框架，我们筛选出若干投资方向/标的供投资者参考。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王贺嘉 王清 杨继虎 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490524050001 SAC：S0490525040001 SFC：BUX462 张晨晨 张飞 李麟君 SAC：S049052408000 ...

金融工程丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 多因子选股（二十一）：日历效应下的因子投资 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受市场交易影响，不同类别的因子在年内表现有所不同，寻找因子的日历效应规律，可以对因 子选股的收益进行增强，并降低尾部风险。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 郑起 覃川桃 SAC：S0490520060001 SAC：S0490513030001 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 29 %% %% %% %% 2 [Table_Title2] 多因子选股（二十一）：日历效应下的因子投资 [Table_Summary2] 因子的日历效应 本文对 12 个大类因子，共统计了季度、年末年初、春节、两会、国庆五种日历效应： 日历效应指数增强 根据因子的日历效应，在大类因子合成权重上进行调整，构建月度调仓频率的增强策略： 短期展望 进入十二月后，年末年初效应规律为以低波、拥挤度、质量、价值为代表的低风险偏好因子更 为有效，考虑到当前高 Beta 的成长风格仍有一定概率 ...