业绩表现超预期，资产、负债均亮眼 ——保险行业2024年中报综述 证券分析师： 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 2024.9.11 核心观点：中报业绩超预期，资产、负债均亮眼 ➢投资表现亮眼，推动1H24利润大超预期。公允价值变动损益同比高增，A股上市险企合计归母净利 润yoy+12.5%至1717.99亿元，大超预期（我们预计yoy+1.0%）。NBV增速超预期、投资及运营经 验偏差均实现正贡献，1H24 EV增速亮眼；积极响应新"国九条"号召，上市险企中期股利支付率位 于12.3%-25.0%区间。 ➢人身险：新单承压，NBVM大幅改善驱动NBV超预期增长。1）NBV超预期：A股上市险企合计NBV yoy+24.1%至744.81亿元（新华未重述1H23）；2）新单承压：银保"报行合一"、高基数影响下， A股上市险企合计新单yoy-13.7%至3854亿元；3）NBVM高增：银保"报行合一"+预定利率调整 +渠道结构改善影响下，A股上市险企NBVM均值yoy+9.1pct至16.0%。 ➢财险：COR超预期，带动承保利润表现亮眼。1）COR超预期：头部公司主动优 ...

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张文静 A0230122100001 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230122100011 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁智艳 (8621)23297818× dingzy@swsresearch.com 2024 年 09 月 11 日 中报回顾：格局优化持续演绎，优 质企业韧性凸显；家居以旧换新政 策持续落地 看好 ——造纸轻工周报 2024/09/02-2024/09/06 本期投资提示： ⚫ 重点提示：1）关注轻工中报回顾：格局优化持续演绎，优质企业韧性凸显。其中①轻工 内销：产品结构升级、降本 ...

计算机 证 券 研 究 报 告 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 2024 年 09 月 10 日 中国民航信息网络(00696) ——利润超预期，人力杠杆预示成长信心恢复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 10 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.37 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6002.91 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.18/7.35 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 274.19 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 932.56 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0982 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -48% 2% 52% 09/1110/1111/1112/1101/1102/1103/1104/1105/1106/1107/1108/11 HSCEI 中国民航信息网络 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 胡雪飞 A0230522120002 huxf@sws ...

上 市 公 司 轻工制造 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 10 日 慕思股份 (001323) 2024 年中报点评——业绩符合预期，分红力度提升 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 09 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 27.96 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 38.35/27.37 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 3.58 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 2,179 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,736.49/8,063.27 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : 2024 | 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.49 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 34.19 | | 总股本 /流通 A 股（百万） | 4 ...

行 业 及 产 业 电子 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 10 日屏幕更大，影像更强，耳机可降噪 看好 ——苹果 2024 年秋季发布会点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 事件：北京时间 2024 年 9 月 10 日凌晨，苹果召开"高光时刻"2024 年秋季新品发 布会，发布全新 iPhone16 系列手机（iPhone 16、iPhone 16 Plus、iPhone 16 Pro、iPhone 16 Pro Max）及新款 Apple Watch Series 10、Apple Watch Ultra2、 AirPods 4 以及 AirPods Max。 ⚫ 屏幕尺寸增大，增加 Camera Control，摄影更强，价格不变。iPhone 16 Pro 从 6.1 英寸扩大至 6.3 英寸，iPhone 16 Pro Max 由 6.7 英寸扩大至 6.9 英寸，同时边框进 一步收窄，带来更广的视觉效果。影像方面，侧边增加按键 Camera Control 可用于拍 照、拍视频，滑动可控制图片大小以及变焦等，还可以自定义快捷功能；潜望长焦镜头 由 iPhone15 的一款机型下放至今年的两款； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the aviation industry, emphasizing a "dual-driven" investment strategy focusing on international routes and supply recovery [2][22]. Core Insights - The global aviation market is experiencing a recovery, with a 13.4% increase in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) in the first half of 2024, driven by a 17.4% increase in international RPK and a 7.4% increase in domestic RPK [2][4]. - The overall market seat load factor has improved to 82.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points, indicating stronger passenger demand compared to capacity growth [2][4]. - The report highlights a divergence in profitability among airlines, particularly in the U.S. market, where major airlines have shown mixed results in net profits due to rising costs from labor and fuel [2][23]. Summary by Sections Global Aviation Market Overview - The global aviation market's capacity and demand continue to grow, with a 11.6% increase in ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) in the first half of 2024, including a 17.2% increase in international ASK [2][4]. - The recovery in the aviation sector is uneven, with the Asia-Pacific region leading in RPK growth, particularly benefiting from the recovery of international routes in China [2][4]. U.S. Aviation Market Tracking - The U.S. aviation industry returned to profitability in the first half of 2024, achieving an operating profit margin of 2.7%, despite a 7% increase in operating costs [23][24]. - Major U.S. airlines have seen a 5% increase in revenue year-on-year, but costs have risen by 7%, with labor costs being the largest expense [23][24]. European Aviation Market Tracking - The European aviation market is recovering, with passenger volumes increasing by 9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, although ticket prices have shown a downward trend due to high base effects from the previous year [38][39]. - Airlines in Europe are facing pricing pressures despite strong demand, with expectations of continued revenue growth driven by both leisure and business travel [39][42]. Other Major Markets - The recovery in other markets is closely tied to their reliance on Chinese travelers, with airports benefiting from strong transit passenger flows [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of international routes and the impact of global supply chain disruptions on the aviation sector [2][22].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the home appliance industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential in the white goods sector [2][4] Core Views - The home appliance industry experienced a 4% YoY increase in revenue and an 8.59% YoY increase in net profit in Q2 2024, driven by strong performance in white goods and export sectors [2][4] - White goods sector saw a 5.23% YoY revenue growth and a 14% YoY increase in net profit, with gross and net margins improving by 0.29 pcts and 0.78 pcts respectively [2][4] - The export sector benefited from RMB depreciation and recovering overseas demand, with companies like Supor and Roborock showing strong performance [2][4] - Core components sector, driven by white goods demand, saw a 15.97% YoY revenue growth, though net profit declined by 5.34% [2][4] Sub-Sector Performance White Goods - Revenue grew by 5.23% YoY to 2837.33 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 14% YoY to 286.99 billion yuan [2][4] - Gross margin improved by 0.29 pcts to 27.88%, and net margin increased by 0.78 pcts to 10.48% [2][4] - Air conditioner sales grew by 12.52% YoY, with exports surging by 38.67% [4][46] Kitchen Appliances - Revenue declined by 4.18% YoY to 86.69 billion yuan, with net profit dropping by 31.43% YoY to 9.43 billion yuan [2][4] - Gross margin fell by 2.28 pcts to 39.78%, and net margin decreased by 0.96 pcts to 10.74% [2][4] Small Appliances - Revenue increased by 13.05% YoY to 326.31 billion yuan, with net profit growing by 1.03% YoY to 30.46 billion yuan [2][4] - Gross margin declined by 1.33 pcts to 32.69%, and net margin dropped by 1.12 pcts to 9.39% [2][4] Black Appliances - Revenue decreased by 4.34% YoY to 927.08 billion yuan, with net profit falling by 32.01% YoY to 11.78 billion yuan [2][4] - Gross margin dropped by 1.35 pcts to 12.79%, and net margin declined by 2.91 pcts to 0.62% [2][4] Components - Revenue grew by 15.97% YoY to 317.43 billion yuan, while net profit declined by 5.34% YoY to 19.92 billion yuan [2][4] - Gross margin remained stable at 16.92%, but operating expenses increased by 1.61 pcts [2][4] Key Investment Themes - **White Goods**: The sector is expected to benefit from policy support, with companies like Haier and Gree recommended for their low valuation and high dividend yields [2][4] - **Export Sector**: Companies like Supor and Roborock are expected to see improved performance due to recovering overseas demand and favorable exchange rates [2][4] - **Core Components**: Companies like Huaxiang and Sanhua are recommended due to strong demand from the white goods sector and growth in new energy vehicle components [2][4] Key Companies Performance - **Haier**: Q2 revenue grew by 0.1% YoY to 666.45 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 13.2% YoY to 56.47 billion yuan [49] - **Gree**: Q2 revenue declined by 1% YoY to 636.91 billion yuan, but net profit grew by 10% YoY to 94.61 billion yuan [50] - **Roborock**: Overseas revenue grew significantly, with North America sales increasing by over 50% [52] - **Sanhua**: Q2 revenue grew by 6% YoY to 72.37 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 9% YoY to 8.67 billion yuan [55]

轻工制造 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 10 日 欧派家居 (603833) —— 短期业绩承压，坚定践行大家居战略铸就中长期竞 争力 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 09 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 40.46 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 101.36/40.28 | | 市净率 | 1.5 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 6.82 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 24,646 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,736.49/8,063.27 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 27.85 | | 资产负债率 % | 51.68 | | 总股本 /流通 A 股（百万） | ...

行 业 及 产 业 汽车 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 10 日看好小鹏汽车后续表现 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W073） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 当前时点，基于小鹏新车型销量表现超预期、盈利能力有望提升、后续智驾进一步突破 等边际向好的趋势持续显现，我们看好小鹏后续的市场表现。 ⚫ MONA 首发定价、销量超预期，P7+将于 Q4 上市，新车订单放量将改善公司盈利能 力。小鹏新车 MONA M03 于 2024 年 8 月 27 日上市，515 长续航版/620 超长续航版 /580 超长续航 Max 版（搭载高阶智能辅助驾驶）售价分别为 11.98 /12.98 /15.58 万 元，性价比超市场预期。M03 正式上市后仅 52 分钟，订单量就突破了 1 万台，上市 48 小时内大定突破 3 万辆。根据 FANS 上市新车销售周报统计，当前 MONA M03 店均新 增大定 50~60 台，进店量上涨 300%，进店量占比 80%。从地域角度看，地方城市授 权门店销售情况超预期，例如佛山、无锡等地门店直接大定过百。我们认为 MONA M03 销量超预期 ...

行 业 及 产 业 建筑装饰 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 08 日 中非合作论坛顺利召开，海外投资弹性加大 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20240902-20240906） 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面， SW 建筑装饰指数-5.05%，沪深 300 指数 -2.71%，相对收益为-2.34pct，板块表现弱于大市，在 31 个板块排名中 排第 27 位。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为家装（+3.70%）、生态园林 （-0.86%）、专业工程（-0.92%），对应行业内三个公司：中天精装 （+18.73%）、岭南股份（+19.42%）、罗曼股份（+14.15%）；年涨幅 最 ...