行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 传媒 - 黄俊儒 A0230123070011 huangjr@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 (8621)23297818× linqx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 15 日 国产 AI+国产 IP，两大价值重估 主线 看好 —— 互联网传媒周报 ⚫ 我们认为港股互联网和 A 股传媒本轮行情是在低估值、基本面改善背景下叠加国产 AI+ 国产 IP 的价值重估，看好持续性。继续提示 AI 带动云计算 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 研究支持 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230123050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230123030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230123070006 fancx@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsresearc ...

相关研究 《从 Deepseek 看阿里 AI 进展，全体系布 局再提速——商贸零售行业周报（2.3- 2.9）》 2025/02/09 行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 2025 年 02 月 15 日 AI+服务业：全场景服务新生态 看好 ——社会服务行业周报（2.10-2.14） 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 (8621)23297818× yangguang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 米奥会展与李未可科技携手，共同开启 AI 眼镜赋能国际展会的新篇章。在以"AI 与出 海"为主题的发布会上，米奥会展正式推出自研的"AI 慧展 1.0"，其中 AI 智能眼镜备 受瞩目，它优化了近 100 种语言的实时翻译功能，让国际交流更加顺畅,实时语音转文字 记录功能可自动记录展会现场的交流内容，生成沟通纪要并实时同步至国内团队，为后续 合作提供有力的数据支撑。为了更好地服务参展商，根据公司公众号，米奥会展以 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The overall market activity post-Spring Festival has increased, with a rise in risk appetite and improved valuations for leading technology and manufacturing companies. The dividend yield for major liquor and food companies is above 4%, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding the recovery of consumer demand during the Spring Festival, as the basic consumption recovery remains unclear [4][8]. - The report suggests that if economic conditions improve in the second half of 2025, the industry fundamentals may reach a bottom, leading to a potential price recovery for stocks [4][8]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.34% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 3.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.04 percentage points [7]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 8th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [7]. Liquor Sector Analysis - The liquor sector shows signs of bottoming out post-Spring Festival, but further validation is needed. The focus is on the volume and price performance in the off-season [9]. - Key prices include Moutai at 2,230 RMB per bottle, stable week-on-week, and Wuliangye at approximately 930 RMB, also stable [9]. Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - During the Spring Festival, domestic travel reached 501 million trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, with total spending of 6,770 billion RMB, up 7% [10]. - The report anticipates stable demand for food and beverage products, particularly in the context of cautious inventory management following last year's demand drop [10]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Moutai for liquor, and Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy for consumer goods [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the deployment of large models in both public and private cloud environments, detailing the characteristics and competitive advantages of various AI public cloud providers [6][7]. - There is a significant focus on AI in the healthcare sector, with both domestic and international markets emphasizing AI applications in medicine [6][27]. - Key companies such as Deepin Technology, Saiyi Information, and Tax Friend are noted for their advancements in AI and cloud services [6][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Deployment of Large Models - Large model deployment can be categorized into public cloud and local deployment, with public cloud being the more flexible and mainstream option [8][10]. - Public cloud deployment allows users to avoid initial hardware investments and provides elastic computing resources, making it an economical choice for many [10][11]. - Local deployment focuses on data privacy and low latency, suitable for industries with high compliance requirements [20][23]. 2. AI in Healthcare - The report identifies a surge in AI applications in healthcare, with companies like Tempus AI and Doximity gaining traction in the market [27][28]. - AI capabilities are expected to enhance drug discovery, disease diagnosis, and clinical treatment, leading to innovations in medical information systems and AI pharmaceuticals [27][34]. - Key investment targets in the AI healthcare space include companies involved in AI-assisted diagnostics and pharmaceutical applications [37]. 3. Key Company Updates - Deepin Technology is recognized for its AI-first strategy and potential revaluation of its cloud and security business [39][41]. - Saiyi Information is highlighted for integrating AI agents into industrial applications, enhancing operational efficiency [42][45]. - Tax Friend is noted for its AI model tailored for financial and tax processing, indicating a strong market position due to its data and knowledge barriers [46][48].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 02 月 14 日 贵金属价格强势，金铜板块业绩普 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——有色金属行业 2024Q4 业绩前瞻 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 相关研究 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 周期投资分析意见：建议积极关注贵金属，全球信用格局重塑、央行黄金储备占比偏低 背景下央行购金持续，金价上行趋势不变，过去半年黄金板块整体调整较多、估值已跌 至中枢下沿，板块具备修复动力及空间(建议关注山东黄金、山金国际、中金黄金、株冶 集团、盛达资源);铜铝，供给相对刚性、新能源需求稳步增长，当前全球制造业产成品 库存处于周期底部，伴随着国内外政策转向，补库周期有望重启，中长期看好价格(建议 关注云铝股份、天山铝业、神火股份、中孚实业、焦作万方、中国铝业、中国宏桥、紫 金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the insurance sector is expected to outperform the overall market [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant increase in the net profit of A-share listed insurance companies, projecting a year-on-year growth of 76% to reach 336.2 billion yuan in 2024, driven by a low base and strong capital market performance [2]. - Five listed insurance companies have already announced profit increases, with notable growth expected from companies like New China Life (yoy +181%) and China Life (yoy +117%) [2]. - The report highlights that the new business value (NBV) growth will be a key driver for the insurance sector, with expected NBV growth rates for 2024 showing strong performance across major companies [3]. - The property and casualty insurance sector is expected to see improvements in the combined cost ratio due to effective risk control and cost reduction strategies [4]. - The report notes that despite market fluctuations in Q4 2024, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued regulatory support for leading companies [5]. Summary by Sections Profit Forecast - A-share listed insurance companies are projected to achieve a combined net profit of 336.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76% [2]. - Specific company forecasts include New China Life (yoy +181%), China Life (yoy +117%), China Pacific Insurance (yoy +70%), China Property & Casualty Insurance (yoy +82%), and Ping An (yoy +44%) [2]. New Business Value (NBV) - The report expects strong NBV growth for 2024, with projected increases for major companies: China Property & Casualty (yoy +92%), New China Life (yoy +92%), China Pacific Insurance (yoy +35%), Ping An (yoy +31%), and China Life (yoy +23%) [3]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The report anticipates a combined premium income of 1.69 trillion yuan for property and casualty insurance companies in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [4]. - The claims payout is expected to reach 1.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [4]. - The combined cost ratio for leading companies is projected to improve slightly compared to the previous year [4]. Market Conditions and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the capital market is expected to remain favorable, with significant gains in major indices [5]. - Regulatory support for leading insurance companies is anticipated, with potential policy relaxations regarding overseas asset allocation and solvency requirements [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: high valuation elasticity stocks such as New China Life and China Life, and balanced stocks like China Property & Casualty, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance [5].

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 02 月 14 日 24 年传统制造业加速升级，推荐关 注机器人&顺周期&出海&轨交四 大方向 看好 ——机械行业 2024 年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 张婧玮 A0230523090001 zhangjw@swsresearch.com 研究支持 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 苏萌 A0230524080011 sumeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 (8621)23297818× hejl@swsresearch.com 机械设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 我们对 16 家重点跟踪的机械公司 2024Q4 业绩预测如下：1）增速超过 100%的有： 柳工（300%）、 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company from "Hold" to "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company's valuation is expected to improve due to enhanced business structure and performance outlook [7][8] - The company has experienced a recovery in its business capabilities and is benefiting from a market rebound in asset management [5][7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growth of its wealth management and asset management businesses, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2022: Revenue of 25,132.01 million, Net Profit of 7,929.28 million - 2023: Revenue of 23,299.53 million, Net Profit of 6,977.80 million - 2024E: Revenue of 27,260.98 million, Net Profit of 8,352.16 million - 2025E: Revenue of 32,743.81 million, Net Profit of 10,671.84 million - 2026E: Revenue of 37,418.61 million, Net Profit of 12,656.90 million - The expected growth rates for net profit are +19.70% in 2024, +27.77% in 2025, and +18.60% in 2026 [6][8] Business Structure and Performance Improvement - The company has improved its business capabilities since 2022, with a focus on investment banking and proprietary trading, leading to a recovery in performance rankings [7][42] - The asset management business is expected to benefit from the market's recovery, with significant contributions from its holdings in leading public funds [10][11] - The company has a stable shareholder structure and an experienced management team, which supports its long-term strategic goals [51][54] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a unique regional advantage in wealth management and asset management, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which enhances its growth potential [7][10] - The company is actively exploring new models in wealth management, including advisory services, to address market needs [10][11] - The company's asset scale has expanded rapidly, with total assets reaching 7,706.5 billion as of Q3 2024, marking a significant increase from previous years [46]

行 业 及 产 业 环保 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 联系人 莫龙庭 (8621)23297818× molt@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 14 日 环保行业持续分化，运营资产表现 稳健 看好 ——环保行业 2024 年业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 市政水务：整体运营平稳，工程业务有所下滑。市政供水及污水整体运营稳定，部分公司受益战略 扩张及污水处理价格调整，同时污水工程则整体需求下降，工程业务预计有所下滑，预计 2024 年 归母净利整体相对平稳，其中天源环保同比+17%，兴蓉环境+11%，洪城环境+6%。 ⚫ 垃圾焚烧：整体平稳，历史电费收入确认、折旧增加、会计准则调整等带来分化。2024 年垃圾焚 烧项目新建及招标整体进一步放缓，鉴于不同公司承接项目不同、历史电费确认收入、新增产能带 来的折旧增加、建造收入下 ...