看好 ——煤炭行业 2024 年年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 02 月 15 日 煤价下跌，24 年行业利润中枢下 移，高比例长协企业业绩相对稳定 联系人 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 供给端，国内产量小幅增长，煤炭进口量维持高增。据统计局数据，2024 年 1-12 月累 计全国原煤产量 47.59 亿吨，同比增加 1.30%。据海关总署数据，2024 年 1-12 月累计 进口煤炭 5.43 亿吨，同比增长 14.4%。 ⚫ 2024 年动力煤、焦煤港 ...

上 市 公 司 买入（上调） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 02 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.34 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.13/8.13 | | 市净率 | 1.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 7,503 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,332.48/10,626.62 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.32 | | 资产负债率% | 43.97 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 744/662 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 02-19 03-19 04-19 05-19 06-19 07-19 08-19 09-19 10-19 11-19 12-19 01-19 -50% 0% 50% 万和电气 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 家用电器 2025 年 02 月 14 日 万和电气 (00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for key players in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 0.2% increase in the sector index while the CSI 300 rose by 1.2% [4][5]. - The report highlights significant growth in sales during the Spring Festival, with over 310 billion RMB in sales from old-for-new exchanges across various categories, including home appliances and mobile phones, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 166% for home appliances [11][65]. - The expansion of the old-for-new subsidy program in multiple regions is expected to stimulate demand, with new categories added to the subsidy list, including smart home devices and health care products [9][10][64]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that several regions, including Liaoning and Shandong, have expanded the categories eligible for old-for-new subsidies, increasing the total to 20 categories [9][10][64]. - During the Spring Festival period, the total sales volume reached 860 million units, with significant increases in sales revenue for home appliances and mobile phones [11][65]. Sales Data Observations - In January 2025, sales of cleaning appliances like robotic vacuums and floor washers saw a year-on-year increase of 37.16% and 23.89%, respectively, although their average prices decreased significantly [28][30]. - Conversely, personal care appliances such as hair dryers and electric shavers experienced a decline in sales volume, with hair dryers down 4.64% and shavers down 7.12%, while their average prices increased [32][38]. Investment Highlights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. White goods, benefiting from favorable real estate policies and the old-for-new program, with recommended stocks including Hisense, Midea, and Gree [4]. 2. Export-oriented companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Shares, which are expected to see revenue growth from large customer orders [4]. 3. Core components suppliers such as Huaxiang and Shun'an Environment, which are positioned to benefit from increased demand in the white goods sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the internet media sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the current market rally in Hong Kong and A-share media sectors is driven by undervaluation and improving fundamentals, alongside a revaluation of domestic AI and IP [2]. - It emphasizes the potential of AI to drive cloud computing demand and the undervalued AI applications in gaming, community, education, and healthcare sectors [2]. - The report also notes the increasing global influence of domestic IP, particularly following the success of "Nezha 2," which showcases the potential for IP derivatives and overseas box office performance [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Cloud Computing and Internet Giants - The report discusses how low-cost, open-source AI solutions like Deepseek are expected to enhance AI penetration and reignite cloud demand, benefiting cloud providers through scale effects and improved ROI [2]. - Recommended companies include Alibaba, Tencent, Kingsoft Cloud, and Xiaomi, highlighting their strengths in AI and cloud services [2]. AI Gaming - The report mentions the success of Minimax's Talkie in overseas markets, validating the potential of AI in role-playing games [2]. - It identifies key players such as Giant Network, Ke Ying Network, and NetEase as top recommendations in this space [2]. AI Community - AI tools are enhancing product experiences and advertising efficiency, with significant growth seen in platforms like Meta and Pinterest [2]. - Recommended domestic platforms include Kuaishou and Bilibili, which are leveraging AI for video content [2]. AI Education and Healthcare - The report highlights the role of AI in education through companies like Vision Source and in healthcare through advancements in drug discovery and diagnostics [2]. - Recommended companies in healthcare include Jingdong Health and Alibaba Health, which are positioned to benefit from AI integration [2]. Domestic IP Industry - The report emphasizes the revaluation of the domestic IP value chain, particularly in light of successful projects like "Nezha 2" and the global impact of Chinese culture [2]. - Investment opportunities are identified in both upstream IP (e.g., Mango Media, Light Media) and downstream IP derivatives (e.g., Pop Mart, Alibaba Pictures) [2].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 研究支持 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230123050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230123030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230123070006 fancx@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsresearc ...

相关研究 《从 Deepseek 看阿里 AI 进展，全体系布 局再提速——商贸零售行业周报（2.3- 2.9）》 2025/02/09 行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 2025 年 02 月 15 日 AI+服务业：全场景服务新生态 看好 ——社会服务行业周报（2.10-2.14） 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 (8621)23297818× yangguang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 米奥会展与李未可科技携手，共同开启 AI 眼镜赋能国际展会的新篇章。在以"AI 与出 海"为主题的发布会上，米奥会展正式推出自研的"AI 慧展 1.0"，其中 AI 智能眼镜备 受瞩目，它优化了近 100 种语言的实时翻译功能，让国际交流更加顺畅,实时语音转文字 记录功能可自动记录展会现场的交流内容，生成沟通纪要并实时同步至国内团队，为后续 合作提供有力的数据支撑。为了更好地服务参展商，根据公司公众号，米奥会展以 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The overall market activity post-Spring Festival has increased, with a rise in risk appetite and improved valuations for leading technology and manufacturing companies. The dividend yield for major liquor and food companies is above 4%, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding the recovery of consumer demand during the Spring Festival, as the basic consumption recovery remains unclear [4][8]. - The report suggests that if economic conditions improve in the second half of 2025, the industry fundamentals may reach a bottom, leading to a potential price recovery for stocks [4][8]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.34% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 3.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.04 percentage points [7]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 8th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [7]. Liquor Sector Analysis - The liquor sector shows signs of bottoming out post-Spring Festival, but further validation is needed. The focus is on the volume and price performance in the off-season [9]. - Key prices include Moutai at 2,230 RMB per bottle, stable week-on-week, and Wuliangye at approximately 930 RMB, also stable [9]. Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - During the Spring Festival, domestic travel reached 501 million trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, with total spending of 6,770 billion RMB, up 7% [10]. - The report anticipates stable demand for food and beverage products, particularly in the context of cautious inventory management following last year's demand drop [10]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Moutai for liquor, and Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy for consumer goods [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the deployment of large models in both public and private cloud environments, detailing the characteristics and competitive advantages of various AI public cloud providers [6][7]. - There is a significant focus on AI in the healthcare sector, with both domestic and international markets emphasizing AI applications in medicine [6][27]. - Key companies such as Deepin Technology, Saiyi Information, and Tax Friend are noted for their advancements in AI and cloud services [6][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Deployment of Large Models - Large model deployment can be categorized into public cloud and local deployment, with public cloud being the more flexible and mainstream option [8][10]. - Public cloud deployment allows users to avoid initial hardware investments and provides elastic computing resources, making it an economical choice for many [10][11]. - Local deployment focuses on data privacy and low latency, suitable for industries with high compliance requirements [20][23]. 2. AI in Healthcare - The report identifies a surge in AI applications in healthcare, with companies like Tempus AI and Doximity gaining traction in the market [27][28]. - AI capabilities are expected to enhance drug discovery, disease diagnosis, and clinical treatment, leading to innovations in medical information systems and AI pharmaceuticals [27][34]. - Key investment targets in the AI healthcare space include companies involved in AI-assisted diagnostics and pharmaceutical applications [37]. 3. Key Company Updates - Deepin Technology is recognized for its AI-first strategy and potential revaluation of its cloud and security business [39][41]. - Saiyi Information is highlighted for integrating AI agents into industrial applications, enhancing operational efficiency [42][45]. - Tax Friend is noted for its AI model tailored for financial and tax processing, indicating a strong market position due to its data and knowledge barriers [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the precious metals sector, suggesting active attention to gold and copper due to favorable market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The report forecasts a year-on-year profit growth of over 50% for several key companies in Q4 2024, driven by rising metal prices and increased production [1]. - The overall performance of the precious metals sector is expected to benefit from central bank gold purchases and a low gold reserve ratio, indicating a sustained upward trend in gold prices [3]. - The copper and aluminum sectors are anticipated to see stable demand from the new energy sector, with a potential recovery in inventory levels as global manufacturing rebounds [3]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance Forecast - Companies such as Shengda Resources, Hunan Gold, and Zijin Mining are projected to have significant profit increases, with Shengda Resources expected to see a staggering 1152% year-on-year growth [1][5]. - The report highlights that the performance growth is primarily attributed to the rise in metal prices and production volume increases [1]. Price Trends of Major Metals - LME Copper is forecasted at $9,340 per ton, showing a 13% year-on-year increase, while COMEX Gold is expected to reach $2,503 per ounce, reflecting a 34.6% increase [4]. - Other metals like LME Aluminum and LME Zinc are also projected to see price increases, indicating a positive market trend for the sector [4]. Company Valuation Insights - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies, with Zijin Mining's PE ratio projected to decrease from 21 in 2023 to 11 in 2026, indicating potential for valuation recovery [7]. - Companies like Shengda Resources and Hunan Gold are highlighted for their significant profit growth potential, with EPS forecasts showing promising trends [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the insurance sector is expected to outperform the overall market [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant increase in the net profit of A-share listed insurance companies, projecting a year-on-year growth of 76% to reach 336.2 billion yuan in 2024, driven by a low base and strong capital market performance [2]. - Five listed insurance companies have already announced profit increases, with notable growth expected from companies like New China Life (yoy +181%) and China Life (yoy +117%) [2]. - The report highlights that the new business value (NBV) growth will be a key driver for the insurance sector, with expected NBV growth rates for 2024 showing strong performance across major companies [3]. - The property and casualty insurance sector is expected to see improvements in the combined cost ratio due to effective risk control and cost reduction strategies [4]. - The report notes that despite market fluctuations in Q4 2024, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued regulatory support for leading companies [5]. Summary by Sections Profit Forecast - A-share listed insurance companies are projected to achieve a combined net profit of 336.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76% [2]. - Specific company forecasts include New China Life (yoy +181%), China Life (yoy +117%), China Pacific Insurance (yoy +70%), China Property & Casualty Insurance (yoy +82%), and Ping An (yoy +44%) [2]. New Business Value (NBV) - The report expects strong NBV growth for 2024, with projected increases for major companies: China Property & Casualty (yoy +92%), New China Life (yoy +92%), China Pacific Insurance (yoy +35%), Ping An (yoy +31%), and China Life (yoy +23%) [3]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The report anticipates a combined premium income of 1.69 trillion yuan for property and casualty insurance companies in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [4]. - The claims payout is expected to reach 1.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [4]. - The combined cost ratio for leading companies is projected to improve slightly compared to the previous year [4]. Market Conditions and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the capital market is expected to remain favorable, with significant gains in major indices [5]. - Regulatory support for leading insurance companies is anticipated, with potential policy relaxations regarding overseas asset allocation and solvency requirements [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: high valuation elasticity stocks such as New China Life and China Life, and balanced stocks like China Property & Casualty, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance [5].