Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is in line with expectations, driven by significant increases in dietary fiber and allulose sugar production capacity [8] - The new production capacity is expected to enhance earnings, with allulose sugar anticipated to see both volume and price increases [8] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic producer of health food additives, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to revenue growth [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 868 million yuan in 2023 to 1,818 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.5% [2][10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 193 million yuan in 2023 to 473 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 29.5% [2][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.78 yuan in 2023 to 1.47 yuan in 2026 [2][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 32.7% in 2023 to 36.0% in 2026 [2] Market Data - As of February 17, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 19.68 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6,358 million yuan [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 33 in 2023 to 13 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [2][3] Production Capacity and Growth Drivers - The company has successfully launched new production lines for soluble dietary fiber and crystalline sugar, which are expected to significantly boost sales and revenue [8] - The allulose sugar project, with a capacity of 15,000 tons, is fully operational and is anticipated to contribute to substantial revenue growth [8] - The flexible production line for dietary fiber is expected to maintain high growth rates, enhancing profitability [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to fund projects, including a new factory in Thailand, which will enhance international competitiveness and reduce production costs [8] - The establishment of a research and development center in the United States is aimed at further strengthening the company's core competencies [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is advancing in both pharmaceutical excipients and synthetic lubricant base oils, entering a new development phase. The consistent evaluation of generic drugs is accelerating industry upgrades, with high-end pharmaceutical excipients expected to significantly enhance profits. The company has a stable management structure and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-quality excipients and lubricants [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,156 million yuan in 2023 to 2,071 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 112 million yuan in 2023 to 236 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 26.9% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.83 yuan in 2023 to 1.74 yuan in 2026 [2]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 27.4% in 2023 to 28.8% in 2026 [2]. Market Data - As of February 17, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 24.61 yuan, with a market capitalization of 3,333 million yuan [3]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 30 in 2023 to 14 in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][7]. Business Overview - The company specializes in the research and production of pharmaceutical excipients and synthetic lubricant base oils, utilizing core technologies such as ether polymerization and ester synthesis [18]. - The pharmaceutical excipients market in China is still in its early stages, with a market share of less than 5% in the pharmaceutical formulation industry, indicating significant growth potential [6][36]. Product and Application - Key products include the Tween 80 series, polyethylene glycol series, and propylene glycol, which are widely used in various drug formulations [46][50]. - The company is expanding its product line to include high-end injectable excipients, which are expected to drive revenue growth [46][48]. Competitive Landscape - The pharmaceutical excipients market in China is characterized by a fragmented structure, with many small and non-specialized companies. The company is positioned as a significant player among a few established firms [44][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry has experienced a recent adjustment due to a lack of market confirmation regarding industry changes, but the fundamental outlook is improving as orders are gradually being fulfilled [3][4]. - The report highlights that military orders are expected to continue to materialize, leading to significant improvements in quarterly earnings for military companies [3]. - The industry is projected to maintain high growth rates, driven by modernization efforts and increasing demand for new technologies such as satellite and low-altitude systems [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on two categories of core stocks: elastic varieties (consumable weapons and military electronics) and value varieties (stable performance manufacturers) [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 0.59%, while the overall market indices showed positive growth, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [4]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense sector included Hangjin Technology (up 47.2%), Xuanji Information (up 16.34%), and Andavil (up 13.07%) [10]. - Conversely, the bottom five performers included AVIC Heavy Machinery (down 7.31%) and Torch Electronics (down 5.7%) [11]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense and Military sector is 66.21, indicating it is in the upper range historically, with some segments like aerospace and aviation equipment also showing high valuations [11][12]. - The report lists key stocks with their projected earnings and valuations, highlighting the expected growth in net profits for several companies in the sector [17]. Key Investment Themes - The report identifies two main investment themes: high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat capabilities, focusing on advanced materials, precision-guided weapons, and low-altitude economic opportunities [3]. - Specific stocks to watch include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and Aero Engine Corporation of China, among others [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 539.2 million for Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.4% [5] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 11.4%, up 7.4 percentage points year-over-year but down 0.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [5] - The company experienced a loss of USD 25.2 million primarily due to foreign exchange losses [5] - The full-year revenue for 2024 was USD 2.004 billion, with a gross margin of 10.2% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 58.11 million [5] - The company is expected to maintain a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% in 2024, with significant contributions from the Wuxi Fab 9 [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 16,232 million - 2024E: 14,899 million - 2025E: 17,954 million - 2026E: 27,850 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at -3.3% for 2023, -8.2% for 2024E, 20.5% for 2025E, and 55.1% for 2026E [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024E: 418 million - 2025E: 937 million - 2026E: 1,149 million - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024E to 15.9% in 2026E [7] Operational Highlights - The average selling price (ASP) for wafers in Q4 2024 was USD 444 per piece, with a year-over-year increase of 27.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.3% [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate for Q4 2024 was 103.2%, with 8-inch capacity utilization at 105.8% and 12-inch at 100.9% [9] - The company is entering a construction phase for Fab 9, with a capital expenditure of USD 1.506 billion in Q4 2024 [9] - The company anticipates a stable revenue guidance for Q1 2025, with expected sales between USD 530 million and USD 550 million [9] Adjustments and Future Outlook - The profit forecast has been adjusted to reflect a net profit of 418 million for 2024, 937 million for 2025, and 1,149 million for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 212, 95, and 77 [9] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's asset-heavy nature in the wafer foundry segment and reasonable price-to-book ratios [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the natural gas sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [30]. Core Insights - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, driven by the increasing application of natural gas as a clean energy source [4][5]. - The report highlights significant growth potential in the transportation fuel and gas-fired power generation markets, with LNG prices being notably lower than diesel prices, enhancing LNG's cost advantage [4][10]. - The supply structure of natural gas remains stable, with domestic production and imports continuing to rise, maintaining a balanced supply-demand scenario [4][7]. - The report recommends focusing on two main investment lines: urban gas and natural gas trading, with expectations of improved profitability due to cost reductions and favorable pricing dynamics [4][20]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Consumption and Supply - China's natural gas consumption has shown a robust growth trend, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.2% from 2015 to 2024 [4][5]. - Domestic gas production is expected to reach 246.4 billion cubic meters in 2024, accounting for approximately 58% of total consumption [5][19]. - The import structure is also evolving, with LNG expected to constitute 58% of total natural gas imports in 2024, reflecting a stable trend in supply sources [7][19]. Transportation Fuel and Power Generation - LNG's cost advantage as a transportation fuel is emphasized, with its average price projected to be only 53% of diesel's price in 2024 [10][11]. - The gas-fired power generation capacity is expected to grow significantly, with installed capacity reaching 14,367 MW by the end of 2024, marking a 14.4% increase year-on-year [11][13]. Investment Recommendations - Urban gas companies are expected to benefit from price adjustments and cost reductions, with specific recommendations for companies like China Resources Gas, New Hope Energy, and Kunlun Energy [20][21]. - In the natural gas trading sector, companies such as New Hope Holdings and Jiu Feng Energy are highlighted for their potential to capitalize on favorable market conditions and price differentials [25][26]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms, including New Hope Holdings and Shenzhen Gas, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a record high revenue of $2.207 billion in Q4 2024, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 1.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was $493 million, a year-over-year decrease of 45.4% due to declines in investment and financial income [4] - The company’s A-share forecast for 2024 indicates a revenue of 15.917 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 31%, with a gross margin of 21.1% [5] - The company’s overall capacity utilization rate for Q4 2024 was 85.5%, with an average selling price (ASP) of $1,108 per wafer, reflecting an 8.3% increase due to product mix changes [7] - The company expects Q1 2025 sales revenue to be between $2.34 billion and $2.38 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6% to 8% [7] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, projecting net profits of 3.699 billion yuan, 6.055 billion yuan, and 7.544 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 214, 131, and 105 [7] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 57.796 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 27.7% [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 19.3%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [6] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 3.699 billion yuan, a decline of 23.3% year-over-year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI healthcare sector, indicating it is an undervalued application of AI in the medical field [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on AI in healthcare, with significant developments from companies like TempusAI and Doximity, which have shown strong stock performance [3][4]. - AI capabilities are expected to enhance various areas such as drug discovery, disease diagnosis, clinical treatment, and telemedicine, leading to continuous innovation and efficiency improvements in the healthcare sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections AI in Healthcare - Recent catalysts in AI healthcare have drawn attention both domestically and internationally, with Cathie Wood emphasizing the sector's potential [3][4]. - TempusAI has established connections with over 65% of academic medical centers in the U.S. and more than 50% of oncologists, focusing on genomic analysis and data services [9][10]. - Doximity, covering over 80% of U.S. doctors, has introduced AI tools that have significantly improved its service offerings, with a revenue guidance of $565 million for 2025 [12][14]. Key Companies and Their Developments - TempusAI's revenue guidance for 2025 is $1.23 billion, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive [10]. - Doximity's latest quarterly performance exceeded expectations, with a 60% increase in AI tool usage [14]. - Huawei is set to release a pathology model that aims to enhance the automatic analysis of pathology images, potentially reducing misdiagnosis rates [15]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key players in various AI healthcare segments: - **AI-assisted diagnosis**: Companies like 嘉和美康, 卫宁健康, and 金域医学 are highlighted for their advancements in AI diagnostic tools [16][18]. - **AI in pharmaceuticals**: Companies such as 晶泰控股 and 泓博医药 are noted for their AI-driven drug discovery processes [23]. - **Internet healthcare**: 医脉通, 阿里健康, and 京东健康 are recognized for their innovative applications of AI in online healthcare services [24][27]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial estimates for key companies, indicating strong growth potential in the AI healthcare sector, with projected revenues and earnings per share for 2025 [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - BYD's "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" high-level intelligent driving technology aims to achieve full-speed driving with zero takeover, making intelligent driving accessible for vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan [5] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for intelligent driving, with global and Chinese automobile sales projected to reach 91 million and 31.43 million units respectively [5] - The market response to BYD's intelligent strategy announcement has been significant, with expectations for further developments in the E4.0 release [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for BYD is projected to grow from 602.315 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,194.555 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.2% [5][6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 30.041 billion yuan in 2023 to 58.130 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 8.8% [5][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 10.32 yuan in 2023 to 19.98 yuan in 2026 [5][6] Market Position and Strategic Outlook - BYD's intelligent driving technology is expected to drive significant market demand, with projections indicating that L3-L5 high-level intelligent driving vehicles could contribute to a market demand of approximately 64 million units globally and 29 million units in China by 2030 [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology in the automotive sector, suggesting that companies capable of maintaining or increasing market share during this transformation will likely succeed [5]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 02 月 15 日 非息有力支撑营收，业绩持续稳步 增长 看好 ——银行业 2024 年报业绩前瞻 ⚫ 预计上市银行 2024 年营收增速较三季报进一步改善，归母净利润依旧保持正增长，基 本符合我们此前对全年银行业绩底部平稳过渡的判断。根据我们对重点上市银行跟踪和 盈利预测，预计 2024 年上市银行营收同比下滑 0.4%，降幅较 9M24 进一步收窄 0.7pct，归母净利润同比增长 1.9%（9M24 为 1.4%）。从不同类型银行来看，我们总 体判断优质城农商行业绩继续领跑、多家股份行底部改善、国有大行利润延续正增长。 具体而言，预计城、农商行营收分别同比增长 6.5%/2.3%（9M24 为 4.3%/2.1%），归 母净利润同比增长 8.8%/5.8%（9M24 为 8.1%/5.1%），其中成都银行、江浙一带多家 城农商行将继续实现 10%以上领跑同业的业绩增速；股份行有望底部修复，预计营收 降幅收窄至 1.9%（9M24 为下降 2.5%），归母净利润同比增长 2.3%（9M24 为 0.9%）；国有行平稳收官，预计营收、归母 ...

行 业 及 产 业 公用事业/ 电力 2025 年 02 月 15 日 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 降息促进利润改善 改革优化盈利模式 看好 —— 2024 年公用事业行业年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：煤炭、天然气价格高波动，电力消纳不及预期，来水不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 究 / - ⚫ 火电：全年煤价逐季度回落，煤价旺季不旺助力 4Q24 业绩进一步修复。2024 年煤价走势逐季度回落，且呈现 "旺季不旺"特点，全年秦皇岛 5500 大卡动力煤现货均价为 855 元/吨，同比下降 11.4%。尤其是在传统用煤 旺季，煤价不升反降，4Q24 煤价下降至 823 元/吨，环比下降 3.0%，同比下降 14.1%。相较于 23 年 10 月秦 皇岛 5500 大卡动力煤一度突破 1000 ...