证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 02 月 13 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 生猪业绩兑现肉鸡盈利分化，宠物食品延续高增 看好 ——农林牧渔行业 2024 年年报前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 农林牧渔 ⚫ 预计重点跟踪的农林牧渔板块上市公司 2024 年年报业绩同比大幅扭亏为盈，合计实现归母净利润 391.06 亿元。子行业业绩同比增速排序前五为：生猪养殖（+318%）、肉鸡养殖（+257%）、种业 （+139%）、宠物食品 ...

s 行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 保险Ⅱ 2025 年 02 月 13 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 孙冀齐 (8621)23297818× sunjq@swsresearch.com 聚焦 5 类目标，险企再迎举牌热潮 看好 ——中长期资金入市专题系列研究之二 如何定义保险公司举牌？根据原保监会规定，保险公司举牌的定义为： "保险公司持有或者与 其关联方及一致行动人共同持有一家上市公司已发行股份的 5%，以及之后每增持达到 5% 时，按照相关法律法规规定，在 3 日内通知该上市公司并予以公告的行为" 。 A 股方面，证监 会要求持有上市公司已发行的有表决权股份达到 5%时予以公告；H 股方面，香港证监会明确 首次持有某上市法团 5%或以上的股份权益（包括衍生工具）时产生披露责任，对于 A/H 两 地上市的公司，规定 H 股权益应按已发行 H 股股数的比例计算。 保险公司举牌或将迎来政策 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 相关研究 《 白酒春节仍处调整期 头部企业股息率具 备吸引力——食品饮料行业周报 20250203—20250207》 2025/02/08 《 板块持仓继续下降 头部企业股息率具备 吸引力——食品饮料行业周报 20250120—20250124》 2025/01/25 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 曹欣之 A0230522080002 caoxz@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王栗晴 A0230123110002 wanglq@swsresearch.com 联系人 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 02 月 13 日 白酒 Q4 释放压力 食品 Q4 表现分 化 看好 —— 食品饮料 2024 年报业绩前瞻 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com ⚫ 核心假设风险：食品安全 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 (8621)23297818× zhufz@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 13 日 重申智能化的投资机会；建议关注 国企改革；理想、保隆、银轮更新 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W093） 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 业 及 产 业 行 汽车 ⚫ 随着智能化成为汽车行业的重要发展趋势，2025 年有望成为智能化主题投资的关键之 年。①从市场演绎路径来看，我们认为智能化的演绎路径将类似于 DLP 大灯等配置渗透 率的提升路径。各主机厂持续发布的关于智能化的进展规划，并通过新车发布不断提升 智能化配置率，这将为市场提供持续的催化剂和关注度；②从投资角度来看，智能化是 行业级别的趋势机会，值得高度重视。小鹏、理想、小米、吉利等新势力品牌也值得关 注；在零部件领域，特别值得关注的汽车零部件企业包括伯特利、保隆科技、科博达、 德赛西威等，以及经纬恒润在 2025 年有望迎来较 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant collaboration between Apple and Alibaba to develop AI capabilities for iPhone users in China, which is expected to enhance the local AI ecosystem and drive demand for related services [1]. - The IDC industry is poised for a structural rebound, driven by the increasing demand for AI and cloud services, with major players like Alibaba and Tencent expected to ramp up investments [2]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the IDC market, suggesting that the industry is at a turning point with a potential for high growth similar to the period from 2016 to 2020 [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the anticipated localization and diversification of AI investments in China, with a focus on reasoning capabilities and a return to cloud-centric growth [2]. - It notes that the IDC sector is at the bottom of its cycle and has not yet fully priced in the upcoming demand surge driven by AI applications [2]. Key Players and Opportunities - The report identifies several key players in the IDC space, including Data Port, Huahuan New Network, and Runze Technology, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI and cloud services [2]. - It also highlights the importance of energy supply and cooling solutions in the IDC supply chain, indicating that companies providing these services will see increased demand [2]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key listed companies, showing projected net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [3]. - For instance, Runze Technology is projected to have a net profit of 32.18 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 31 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report outlines the role of telecom operators as significant players in the cloud and IDC markets, suggesting that their investments will also be revalued positively [2]. - It emphasizes that the demand for computing power is expected to rise significantly, driven by the deployment of AI technologies across various sectors [2].

2025 年 02 月 12 日 24Q4 油价下降，上游板块景气预 计回落，中游炼油与下游聚酯板块 预计基本企稳 行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 看好 ——石油化工 2024 年报业绩前瞻 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com ⚫ 风险提示：地缘政治影响；石油及化工品价格波动；经济下行风险；全球疫情影响。 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 2024Q4 原油价格同比、环比下降，成品油价格上调：2024 年 10、11、12 月 Brent 原油均价分别为 75.4、73.4、73.1 美元/桶，波动区间为 71—81 美元；2024Q4 均价 为 74.0 美元/桶，环比下降 6.0% ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Foshan Lighting [7][8]. Core Views - Foshan Lighting has been a leading player in the domestic lighting industry for over 60 years, expanding its business into new areas such as smart, health, marine, airport, and sports lighting through acquisitions [7][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 94.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 112.65 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profit estimates of 4.33 billion yuan and 4.38 billion yuan for the same years [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic acquisitions, including Nanning Liaowang and Guoxing Optoelectronics, which enhance its competitive position in the automotive lighting sector and the overall LED industry [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Background and Growth Strategy - Foshan Lighting, established in 1958, has evolved into a top-tier enterprise in the lighting industry, focusing on vertical and horizontal integration to enhance its market presence [7][8]. - The company has made significant acquisitions to cover the entire LED industry chain, from chip manufacturing to application [7][8]. 2. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2023, Foshan Lighting reported total revenue of 90.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.39%, and a net profit of 2.90 billion yuan, up 26.03% [22]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a revenue growth rate of 4.5%, 8.5%, and 9.7%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 49.2%, -15.3%, and 19.4% [7][8]. 3. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The LED lighting market in China is expected to grow from 6,813 billion yuan in 2022 to 7,386 billion yuan by 2026, with Foshan Lighting holding a market share of 1.30% as of 2022 [7][8]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape is fragmented, with Foshan Lighting ranked third among the top players in the industry [50]. 4. Strategic Acquisitions and New Business Areas - The acquisition of Nanning Liaowang has allowed Foshan Lighting to rapidly expand its automotive lighting business, which is experiencing high growth due to the increasing penetration of electric vehicles [7][8]. - The company is also investing in new business areas such as smart lighting and marine lighting, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [7][8].

农林牧渔 2025 年 02 月 11 日 一号文"临近，对农业板块影响几何？ 看好 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 券 研 究 胡静航 (8621)23297818× hujh@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 行 业 深 度 证 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 报 告 联系人 总结历年一号文的核心内容，我们发现了以下趋势：（1）粮食安全重要性日益凸 显。2020 年以来，"粮食安全"在中央一号文中提及的次数明显增加，2021 年至 2023 年均提及 4 次及以上。（2）生物育种成为农业科技创新重点。2021-2024 年， 有序推进→全面实施→扩面提速。2025 年中美贸易关系或再次发生变动，粮食安全主 题大概率再获得强化，农业科技创新、生物育种的重要性凸显。在经历了 3 年试点，1 年商业化推广后，转基因玉米种植效果良好，2025 年销售有望进一步"扩面提速"， 种业板块将迎来主题与基本面的双 ...

行 业 及 产 业 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 基础化工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 联系人 周超 (8621)23297818× zhouchao@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 11 日 DeepSeek 加速 AI 端侧落地，重 视材料端投资机会 看好 ——AI 端侧材料行业点评 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ DeepSeek 催化 AI 竞争从算力军备竞赛转向效率优化，低成本及开源属性加快 AI 走向 场景化，产业链从云端基础建设阶段进入 AI 应用和端侧 AI 快速阶段。2024 年底， DeepSeek 发布 V3 版本，同时宣布开源；2025 年 1 月 20 日，DeepSeek-R1 模型发 布，迅速霸榜全球全球下载排行榜，截至目前包括报读智能云、华 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has fully integrated the DeepSeek large model, aiming to reshape the intelligence of process industries through AI and industry know-how [8] - The company has a strong market presence, covering over 30,000 process enterprise customers and achieving a domestic market share of nearly 40% in DCS, over 55% in the chemical sector, and nearly 50% in the petrochemical sector [8] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.256 billion, 1.512 billion, and 1.822 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 37X, 30X, and 25X [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,620 million yuan in 2023 to 13,586 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.4% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,102 million yuan in 2023 to 1,822 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 20.5% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.44 yuan in 2023 to 2.30 yuan in 2026 [7]