Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mechanical industry, recommending attention to four key directions: robotics, cyclical recovery, overseas expansion, and rail transit [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to see significant growth in 2024, with several companies projected to achieve over 100% growth in net profit, including Liugong (300%), Zhongtung High-tech (299%), Sany Heavy Industry (136%), and XCMG (119%) [2][3]. - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of humanoid robots, with major players like Nvidia and Huawei entering the market, indicating a shift from hardware to system integration [2]. - Rail transit investment is projected to be highly certain in 2024, with significant increases in passenger volume and fixed asset investment planned by the National Railway Group [2]. - The engineering machinery sector is approaching a cyclical turning point, with signs of recovery in demand and improved profitability due to increased overseas revenue [2]. - The laser equipment market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by high-power iterations and new technology demands in specialized lasers [2]. Summary by Sections Robotics and Components - The humanoid robot industry is advancing, with a focus on product iterations and supply chain changes. Key companies to watch include Greentech Harmonic, Mingzhi Electric, and Estun Automation [2]. Rail Transit - The National Railway aims for a passenger volume of 4.28 billion in 2025, with a focus on infrastructure investment and new line construction. Recommended companies include China CNR and Siwei Control [2]. Engineering Machinery - The sector is witnessing a recovery with improved profitability and a low valuation base. Key companies include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zhonglian Heavy Industry [2]. Laser Technology - General laser demand is growing rapidly, while specialized lasers are focusing on new technology changes. Recommended companies include Baichu Electronics and Lianying Laser [2]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield service sector is benefiting from high oil prices and increased capital expenditure in oil and gas, with a recommendation for Jerry Holdings [4]. Machine Tools and Cutters - The machine tool industry is shifting towards high-end and intelligent manufacturing, with a focus on domestic replacement of core components. Recommended companies include Haomai Technology and Neway CNC [4].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company from "Hold" to "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company's valuation is expected to improve due to enhanced business structure and performance outlook [7][8] - The company has experienced a recovery in its business capabilities and is benefiting from a market rebound in asset management [5][7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growth of its wealth management and asset management businesses, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2022: Revenue of 25,132.01 million, Net Profit of 7,929.28 million - 2023: Revenue of 23,299.53 million, Net Profit of 6,977.80 million - 2024E: Revenue of 27,260.98 million, Net Profit of 8,352.16 million - 2025E: Revenue of 32,743.81 million, Net Profit of 10,671.84 million - 2026E: Revenue of 37,418.61 million, Net Profit of 12,656.90 million - The expected growth rates for net profit are +19.70% in 2024, +27.77% in 2025, and +18.60% in 2026 [6][8] Business Structure and Performance Improvement - The company has improved its business capabilities since 2022, with a focus on investment banking and proprietary trading, leading to a recovery in performance rankings [7][42] - The asset management business is expected to benefit from the market's recovery, with significant contributions from its holdings in leading public funds [10][11] - The company has a stable shareholder structure and an experienced management team, which supports its long-term strategic goals [51][54] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a unique regional advantage in wealth management and asset management, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which enhances its growth potential [7][10] - The company is actively exploring new models in wealth management, including advisory services, to address market needs [10][11] - The company's asset scale has expanded rapidly, with total assets reaching 7,706.5 billion as of Q3 2024, marking a significant increase from previous years [46]

行 业 及 产 业 环保 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 联系人 莫龙庭 (8621)23297818× molt@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 14 日 环保行业持续分化，运营资产表现 稳健 看好 ——环保行业 2024 年业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 市政水务：整体运营平稳，工程业务有所下滑。市政供水及污水整体运营稳定，部分公司受益战略 扩张及污水处理价格调整，同时污水工程则整体需求下降，工程业务预计有所下滑，预计 2024 年 归母净利整体相对平稳，其中天源环保同比+17%，兴蓉环境+11%，洪城环境+6%。 ⚫ 垃圾焚烧：整体平稳，历史电费收入确认、折旧增加、会计准则调整等带来分化。2024 年垃圾焚 烧项目新建及招标整体进一步放缓，鉴于不同公司承接项目不同、历史电费确认收入、新增产能带 来的折旧增加、建造收入下 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][17]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is expected to see a significant recovery in 2024, with a projected total net profit of 39.106 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 686% [3][4]. - The top five sub-industries by profit growth are: pig farming (+318%), chicken farming (+257%), seed industry (+139%), pet food (+85%), and feed (+65%) [2][3]. - Key companies expected to report substantial profit growth include Petty Holdings (+1840%), Muyuan Foods (+510%), and Lihua Agricultural (+446%) [2][3]. Summary by Sub-Industry Pig Farming - The reduction in breeding capacity has led to decreased supply, driving up pig prices. The average price for pigs is expected to be 16.75 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 11.62% [2][3]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods are projected to sell 71.62 million pigs, achieving a net profit of 17.5 billion yuan, a 510% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The chicken market is experiencing a split in profitability, with white chicken prices declining significantly due to oversupply and weak demand. The average price for chicken is expected to be 9.48 yuan/kg, down 12% year-on-year [2][3]. - Leading companies are expected to report stable profits despite market challenges, with Shengnong Development projected to achieve a net profit of 730 million yuan, up 9% [2][3]. Pet Food - The pet food sector is benefiting from lower raw material prices and strong overseas demand, with exports expected to reach 10.53 billion yuan, a 22.1% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - Companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Holdings are expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 630 million yuan and 380 million yuan, respectively [2][3]. Feed - The feed industry is facing pressure, with total production expected to decline by 2.1% to 31.503 million tons. However, leading companies like Haida Group are expected to achieve a net profit of 4.525 billion yuan, a 65% increase [2][3]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is experiencing mixed performance due to declining grain prices, with major players like Longping High-Tech expected to report a net profit of 250 million yuan, a 25% increase [2][3]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to see a slight recovery in immunization demand, but increased competition may lead to profit declines for companies like Shenghua Biotech and Pulaike, with projected net profits down 60% and 48%, respectively [2][3]. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the growth potential in the pet food sector, suggesting a focus on companies like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Holdings, and Petty Holdings [2][3][5]. - The anticipated acceleration in the promotion of genetically modified corn in 2025 is also highlighted, with recommendations to monitor companies like Longping High-Tech and Denghai Seeds [2][3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the insurance sector, particularly regarding the anticipated resurgence of insurance companies' stake acquisitions [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a new wave of stake acquisitions by insurance companies, driven by favorable regulatory changes and market conditions, with a focus on long-term investments [2][5]. - It identifies five key motivations behind the current wave of acquisitions, including increasing stock asset holdings, optimizing accounting measures, seeking deeper collaboration with target companies, strategic positioning, and leveraging the positive externalities of long-term capital market participation [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Definition of Stake Acquisition - Stake acquisition is defined as an insurance company holding or jointly holding 5% or more of a listed company's issued shares, with subsequent increases of 5% requiring notification within three days [10][11]. 2. Historical Phases of Stake Acquisitions - The report outlines five phases of stake acquisitions by insurance companies from 2015 to 2024, noting a significant increase in activity in 2024 after a period of regulatory tightening and market downturns [3][18][22]. 3. Motivations for Current Stake Acquisitions - The motivations for the recent surge in stake acquisitions are categorized into five types: 1. Increasing stock asset holdings, with a focus on sectors like utilities, banking, transportation, environmental protection, and pharmaceuticals [4][26]. 2. Optimizing accounting measures to stabilize profit fluctuations under new accounting standards [33]. 3. Seeking deeper collaboration with acquired companies, particularly in the banking sector [37]. 4. Strategic positioning in anticipation of market consolidations, as seen in the case of New China Life's acquisition of Haitong Securities [42]. 5. Leveraging the positive externalities of long-term capital market participation [24]. 4. Outlook for Stake Acquisitions - The report anticipates that the current trend of stake acquisitions will continue, supported by favorable policies and the need for insurance companies to optimize their asset allocations [5][15]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines of investment: high-elasticity targets such as New China Life and China Life, and balanced targets like China Property & Casualty, China Ping An, and China Taiping [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a mixed performance in Q4 2024 for the food and beverage sector, with a notable divergence in results among companies [3] - The report highlights that after the Spring Festival, the liquor industry shows signs of bottoming out, but further validation is needed [3] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the volume and price performance post-Spring Festival, particularly in Q2, as it will be a critical period for the industry [3] Summary by Sections Company Performance Forecast - The report predicts that among 41 tracked A-share listed companies in the food and beverage sector, one company, Dongpeng Beverage, is expected to see a net profit growth exceeding 50% at 60% [3] - Five companies are projected to have a growth rate between 20%-50%: Shuanghui Development (50%), Tianwei Food (42%), Babi Food (40%), Yanjinpuzi (38%), and New Dairy (20%) [3] - 21 companies are expected to have growth rates below 20%, including Yili (18%), Haitian (15%), and Guizhou Moutai (14%) [3] - Two companies are forecasted to turn losses into profits: Tianrun Dairy and Lihai Food [3] Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the liquor industry has shown some bottoming characteristics post-Spring Festival, but it requires time for confirmation [3] - It maintains the annual strategy of "No Break, No Stand" and indicates that the first quarter of 2025 will still face significant sales pressure [3] - If the economic environment improves in the second half of 2025, along with inventory adjustments, the industry fundamentals may reach a bottom, leading to a potential stock price recovery [3] - The report recommends increasing allocations to leading companies based on current valuation and dividend levels, highlighting Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Moutai as key investment targets [3] Sector Opportunities - The report identifies two main investment opportunities in the consumer goods sector: the improvement of operational goals among major food companies and the rise of new retail formats driving growth in certain new categories [3] - It also points out that the dairy sector has potential for capacity reduction and structural improvement [3] - Policy support such as consumption vouchers and encouragement of mergers and acquisitions are highlighted as beneficial directions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly emphasizing the investment opportunities in smart technology and state-owned enterprise reforms [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant shift towards smart technology, with 2025 expected to be a pivotal year for investments in this area. The penetration of smart features is anticipated to follow a similar trajectory to that of DLP headlights, driven by continuous advancements from major manufacturers [2][3]. - Li Auto is viewed as undervalued despite market concerns, with projected sales of 650,000 to 670,000 units in 2025 and an estimated net profit of approximately 12.6 billion yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise reforms in 2025, suggesting that companies like Dongfeng Motor, SAIC Motor, and Changan Automobile will undergo significant changes to enhance management efficiency [6]. - Baolong Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 590 million yuan in 2025, benefiting from reduced stock incentive costs and increased orders from key models [8]. - Yinlun Holdings is positioned for growth in new business areas such as robotics and liquid cooling data centers, with a projected net profit of 1.1 billion yuan in 2025 [9]. Summary by Sections Smart Technology Investment Opportunities - The automotive industry's shift towards smart technology is a major investment theme, with significant potential for companies like BYD, Xpeng, and Li Auto [2][3]. Li Auto's Market Position - Li Auto is expected to maintain stable sales and achieve a net profit of around 12.6 billion yuan in 2025, despite market skepticism [4][5]. State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The report emphasizes the upcoming reforms in state-owned enterprises, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and create investment opportunities [6]. Baolong Technology's Growth Potential - Baolong Technology is projected to see a net profit of 590 million yuan in 2025, driven by increased demand for its products [8]. Yinlun Holdings' New Business Ventures - Yinlun Holdings is exploring growth in robotics and data center cooling, with a projected net profit of 1.1 billion yuan in 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant collaboration between Apple and Alibaba to develop AI capabilities for iPhone users in China, which is expected to enhance the local AI ecosystem and drive demand for related services [1]. - The IDC industry is poised for a structural rebound, driven by the increasing demand for AI and cloud services, with major players like Alibaba and Tencent expected to ramp up investments [2]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the IDC market, suggesting that the industry is at a turning point with a potential for high growth similar to the period from 2016 to 2020 [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the anticipated localization and diversification of AI investments in China, with a focus on reasoning capabilities and a return to cloud-centric growth [2]. - It notes that the IDC sector is at the bottom of its cycle and has not yet fully priced in the upcoming demand surge driven by AI applications [2]. Key Players and Opportunities - The report identifies several key players in the IDC space, including Data Port, Huahuan New Network, and Runze Technology, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI and cloud services [2]. - It also highlights the importance of energy supply and cooling solutions in the IDC supply chain, indicating that companies providing these services will see increased demand [2]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key listed companies, showing projected net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [3]. - For instance, Runze Technology is projected to have a net profit of 32.18 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 31 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report outlines the role of telecom operators as significant players in the cloud and IDC markets, suggesting that their investments will also be revalued positively [2]. - It emphasizes that the demand for computing power is expected to rise significantly, driven by the deployment of AI technologies across various sectors [2].

2025 年 02 月 12 日 24Q4 油价下降，上游板块景气预 计回落，中游炼油与下游聚酯板块 预计基本企稳 行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 看好 ——石油化工 2024 年报业绩前瞻 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com ⚫ 风险提示：地缘政治影响；石油及化工品价格波动；经济下行风险；全球疫情影响。 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 2024Q4 原油价格同比、环比下降，成品油价格上调：2024 年 10、11、12 月 Brent 原油均价分别为 75.4、73.4、73.1 美元/桶，波动区间为 71—81 美元；2024Q4 均价 为 74.0 美元/桶，环比下降 6.0% ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Foshan Lighting [7][8]. Core Views - Foshan Lighting has been a leading player in the domestic lighting industry for over 60 years, expanding its business into new areas such as smart, health, marine, airport, and sports lighting through acquisitions [7][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 94.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 112.65 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profit estimates of 4.33 billion yuan and 4.38 billion yuan for the same years [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic acquisitions, including Nanning Liaowang and Guoxing Optoelectronics, which enhance its competitive position in the automotive lighting sector and the overall LED industry [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Background and Growth Strategy - Foshan Lighting, established in 1958, has evolved into a top-tier enterprise in the lighting industry, focusing on vertical and horizontal integration to enhance its market presence [7][8]. - The company has made significant acquisitions to cover the entire LED industry chain, from chip manufacturing to application [7][8]. 2. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2023, Foshan Lighting reported total revenue of 90.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.39%, and a net profit of 2.90 billion yuan, up 26.03% [22]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a revenue growth rate of 4.5%, 8.5%, and 9.7%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 49.2%, -15.3%, and 19.4% [7][8]. 3. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The LED lighting market in China is expected to grow from 6,813 billion yuan in 2022 to 7,386 billion yuan by 2026, with Foshan Lighting holding a market share of 1.30% as of 2022 [7][8]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape is fragmented, with Foshan Lighting ranked third among the top players in the industry [50]. 4. Strategic Acquisitions and New Business Areas - The acquisition of Nanning Liaowang has allowed Foshan Lighting to rapidly expand its automotive lighting business, which is experiencing high growth due to the increasing penetration of electric vehicles [7][8]. - The company is also investing in new business areas such as smart lighting and marine lighting, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [7][8].