行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《算网传导分化、卫星产业强化、景气周 期优化——2025 年通信行业投资策略》 2024/12/17 证券分析师 郝知雨 A0230123060003 haozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈力扬 (8621)23297818× chenly@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 09 日 聚焦 AI 算网主线与细分板块景气 优化！ 看好 —— 通信行业 24Q4 前瞻 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 通信 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 刘菁菁 A0230522080003 liujj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 ⚫ ⚫ 把握三条主线：算网传导分化，卫星产业强化，景气周期优化。具体而言：1）算网主 线：AI 产业趋势演进至推理主导，算力方案趋于多元化。数据中心供需拐点已现，液冷 等配套技术加速渗透；上游国产芯片、器件、模块等产业链开始导入；端侧模组伴随应 用普及空间打开。2）卫星通信：24H2 开始 ...

业 及 产 业 建筑材料 2025 年 02 月 07 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 郝子禹 (8621)23297818× haozy2@swsresearch.com 需求筑底，水泥提价带来盈利改善 看好 ——建材行业 2024 年年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 2024 年需求仍然探底，Q4 地产销售面积止跌。2024 年全年房地产新开工面积 7.39 亿平，yoy-23%；竣工面积 7.37 亿平，yoy-28%；销售面积 9.74 亿平，yoy-13%； 基建投资（不含电热气水）18.59 万亿元，yoy+5%。全年维度，建材下游需求仍呈现 地产回落探底，基建有所支撑的态势。值得注意的是 ...

行 2025 年 02 月 07 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 政策面践行止跌回稳，基本面承压中磨底 看好 ——房地产行业 2024 年年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 业 及 产 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产 ⚫ 考虑到板块利润率回落、叠加减值压力，预计 24 年房企业绩仍然承压。基本面方面， 2022-24 年房地产行业基本面大幅下行；随着宏观及行业政策持续加码，预计后续行业 基本面有望呈现底部复苏迹象，但复苏态势仍然缓慢、且出现反复现象，预计改善路径将 呈现"L"型曲折性弱复苏走势。展望 2024 年板块业绩，我们认为板块业绩仍将继续承 压，主要源于：1）房企资金紧张影响竣工结算进度；2021 年后销售连续下降推动结算 增速明显放缓；2）前期降价促销推动当期结算影响利润率水平 ...

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 07 日 供给侧、投资端、融资端改革齐头 并进，券商行业景气度抬升 看好 ——《资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》 点评 事件：2025/2/7，证监会发布《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》。 证 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 报 告 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com ⚫ 《意见》作为资本市场"1+N"政策体系的重要组成部分，也是资本市场进一步全面深 化改革的重要举措。在 2025 年适度宽松货币政策托底下，随着中长期资金入市、科技 型企业上市制度优化，资本市场生态有望从根本上得到重塑，强 beta 属性的证券行业 景气度上行。 ⚫ 提升上市公司投资价值：《意见》明确 A+H 两地联动，更大力度支持优质未盈利科技型 企业发行上市，券商 ...

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 保险Ⅱ 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 险资正式启动投资黄金试点。2 月 7 日，金管局发布《关于开展保险资金投资 黄金业务试点的通知》（简称"《通知》"），试点参与机构共 10 家，包括 6 家人 身险公司（中国人寿、太平人寿、平安人寿、太保寿险、泰康人寿、新华保 险），3 家财险公司（中国财险、平安财险、太保财险），1 家政策性保险公司 （中国信保）；试点投资黄金范围包括在上海黄金交易所主板上市或交易的黄金 现货实盘合约、黄金现货延期交收合约、上海金集中定价合约、黄金询价即期 合约、黄金询价掉期合约和黄金租借业务。《通知》明确投资要求及监管限制： 联系人 孙冀齐 (8621)23297818× sunjq@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 07 日 资产端再迎政策支持，10 家险企启 动投资黄金试点 将黄金纳入险资投资范围具有多重积极作用。黄 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 相关研究 《Deepseek 全解，从算法到算力——计 算机行业周报 20250127-20250204》 2025/02/04 《AI 算力软件生态：难以突破吗？—华为 系列深度之十五》 2024/09/19 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹峥 A0230123040004 caozheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹峥 (8621)23297818× caozheng@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 07 日 算力新变局：训练 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [6][7]. Core Insights - The company has a solid foundation in e-commerce operations and has successfully expanded into brand management, leading to significant growth in its proprietary brand "Zhanjia" [6][19]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projections of 1.818 billion, 2.375 billion, and 2.877 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. - The proprietary brand "Zhanjia" is anticipated to generate approximately 600 million yuan in GMV in 2024, driven by its differentiated market approach [6][36]. Summary by Sections 1. E-commerce Operations and Brand Management - The company has established itself as a leading third-party e-commerce operator since its inception in 2011, expanding into various categories such as maternal and infant products, beauty, and health [19]. - The transition from e-commerce operations to brand management has been marked by the acquisition of the high-end cleaning brand "Zhanjia" in 2019, which has seen rapid growth since its launch in 2020 [19][20]. 2. Future Prospects - The proprietary brand "Zhanjia" is positioned to capture the high-end cleaning market, appealing to younger consumers who prioritize quality and emotional resonance in their purchases [6][38]. - The brand management segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenue projections of 4.49 billion, 6.74 billion, and 8.09 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][30]. 3. Financial Forecasts - The company anticipates a net profit of 112 million, 164 million, and 215 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting strong growth rates of 106.1%, 46.4%, and 31.0% [2][7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 47.3% in 2024 to 52.1% in 2026, driven by the increasing contribution of high-margin proprietary brand sales [8][26]. 4. Market Dynamics - The domestic cleaning market is expected to grow to approximately 584 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on high-end and differentiated products appealing to the new generation of consumers [38][40]. - The company is leveraging its extensive e-commerce experience to enhance brand management capabilities, which is expected to drive further growth in its proprietary brands [34][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 earnings declined sequentially due to seasonal factors and year-end expenses, but the Moroccan base is expected to ramp up production soon [1][7]. - The company achieved a net profit of approximately 2.23 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 68.7% [2][7]. - The company is expanding its overseas orders and has become a qualified supplier for major automotive manufacturers, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7.84 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.48 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.9% [2][8]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.37 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.81 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.01 yuan in 2023 to 2.72 yuan in 2026 [2][8]. Market Data - As of February 6, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 24.86 yuan, with a market capitalization of 17.53 billion yuan [3]. - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 and a dividend yield of 2.49% [3][4]. Operational Insights - The company is facing cost pressures in 2024, but demand is expected to grow steadily, supported by reduced anti-dumping duties in Thailand and ongoing customer expansion [7]. - The Moroccan facility is projected to produce 6-8 million semi-steel tires in 2025, enhancing the company's high-end offerings and ability to withstand trade barriers [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company has released a performance forecast for 2024, which exceeds expectations, with an anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 570 to 650 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.9% to 59.6% [6]. - The company is actively promoting its own brand development, significantly increasing direct retail customers, and successfully advancing the store-in-store model [6]. - The company has demonstrated strong R&D capabilities, with new product series and innovations contributing to revenue growth and improved profit margins [6]. - The company is enhancing its after-sales service capabilities, leading to improved operational quality and efficiency [6]. - Short-term performance is driven by innovation and brand development, while long-term growth is supported by global expansion and product upgrades [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,921 million yuan in 2023 to 4,193 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.7% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 407 million yuan in 2023 to 917 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 21.3% [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 34.0% in 2023 to 35.1% in 2026 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 13.6% in 2023 to 19.3% in 2026 [2]. Market Data - As of February 6, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 77.50 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 3,299 million yuan [3]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is estimated at 21, decreasing to 14 by 2026 [2][3].