2025 年 02 月 06 日 光线传媒 (300251) 02-06 03-06 04-06 05-06 06-06 07-06 08-06 09-06 10-06 11-06 12-06 01-06 02-06 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 光线传媒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 《光线传媒（300251）点评：现实题材有 突破，期待动画电影产能释放》 2024/09/23 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com ——《哪吒之魔童闹海》验证中国动画 IP 龙头再上台阶 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 02 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 13.50 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.73/6.43 | | 市净率 | 4.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.52 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 37,628 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,270.66/10,393.63 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已 ...

上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 02 月 06 日 大商股份 (600694) ——头部商业集团迎新帅，线下零售步入革新拐点 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024Q1-3 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,331 | 5,288 | 7,186 | 8,590 | 10,329 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.8 | -6.8 | -2.0 | 19.5 | 20.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 505 | 531 | 602 | 712 | 813 | | 同比增长率（%） | -8.0 | 18.0 | 19.1 | 18.3 | 14.2 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.77 | 1.70 | 1.92 | 2.27 | 2.60 | | 毛利率（%） | 38.8 | 41.3 | 39.4 | 38.1 | 36.9 | | ROE（%） | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 8.5 | | 市盈率 | 15 | ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 06 日 24 年政策激活市场需求，25 年开 年烟灶景气延续 看好 ——2024 年厨电品类零售数据点评 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 一扫阴霾，以旧换新政策激活市场。2024 年 7 月 25 日，国家发展改革委和财政部两 部门印发了《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》的通知，文 件指出统筹安排 3000 亿元左右超长期特别国债资金，加力支持大规模设备更新和消费 品以旧换新。此次家电"以旧换新"政策除了 09 年已经涉及的彩电、冰箱、洗衣机、 空调、电脑 5 个补贴品类外，新增热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机 3 个品 ...

行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《游客接待量持续攀升，消费市场逐步回 暖——社会服务行业周报（1.20-1.24）》 2025/01/27 《跨境复苏驱动旅游升温，春运热潮再创 新高——社会服务行业周报（1.6- 1.10）》 2025/01/12 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 (8621)23297818× yangguang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 06 日 春节出行符合预期，跨境订单同比 高增 看好 ——2025 年春节假期旅游消费数据点评 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 2025 年春节假期出行意愿保持高涨，客单价超过 19 年同期水平。经文化和旅游部数据 中心测算，25 年春节假期 8 天，全国国内出游 5.01 亿人次，同比增长 5.9%，国内出游 总花费 6770.02 亿元，同比增长 7.0%。春节期间国内出游客单价达 1351 元，恢复至 19 年春节 109.12%。25 年春运 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 9.27, indicating a potential upside of 21% based on a 2025 target PE of 12x [2]. Core Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival box office in China reached a historical high of HKD 9.51 billion, representing an 18.6% increase compared to the previous year. The average daily box office was HKD 1.36 billion, up 35.3% year-on-year, driven by a 14.7% increase in audience attendance [1]. - The company's film ticketing business is expected to benefit directly from the recovery of the overall box office market, with a strong supply of quality films anticipated to drive demand [7]. - The offline performance sector is also showing significant growth, with a projected 85% increase in ticket sales for live performances in 2024, indicating a robust market environment [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: HKD 2,319 million - 2023: HKD 4,757 million - 2024E: HKD 4,140 million - 2025E: HKD 5,001 million - 2026E: HKD 5,594 million - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be: - 2022: HKD 233 million - 2023: HKD 1,002 million - 2024E: HKD 308 million - 2025E: HKD 819 million - 2026E: HKD 1,005 million [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2022: HKD 0.20 - 2023: HKD 0.87 - 2024E: HKD 0.27 - 2025E: HKD 0.72 - 2026E: HKD 0.88 [3][8]. Market Data - As of February 5, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was HKD 7.66, with a market capitalization of HKD 88.19 billion. The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 11.08 and a low of HKD 5.56 [4].

2025 年 02 月 06 日 杭州银行 (600926) 营收提速、业绩高增，信贷有望延续开门红 投告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025年02月05日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元) | 14.58 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 15.46/10.49 | | 市净率 | 0.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 6.10 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 80,855 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3.229.49/10.164.22 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 17.83 | | 资产负债率% | 93.42 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 6,050/5,546 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 杭州银行 · 沪深300指数 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A02305220700 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Agents enable AI to collaborate with humans, transitioning from a "co-pilot" role to a "pilot" role [3] - Agents simplify the customization challenges faced by software companies, reconstructing the "man-day" model [4] - The capabilities of Agents are currently at a stage similar to the transition from GPT-3 to ChatGPT, with significant improvements expected post-2025 [5][35] - The adoption of AI Agents is anticipated to revolutionize software companies' pricing models, moving towards per-use charges and revenue sharing [5] Summary by Sections 1. Algorithm: A Key Step Towards AGI - AI Agents are more suited for complex, continuous tasks compared to traditional LLMs [10] - The relationship between LLMs and Agents is that LLMs serve as the brain for Agents, essential for decision-making [10] 2. Industry: Customization and Commercial Reconstruction - The software industry faces challenges with high customization demands, which suppress profit margins and productivity [53][58] - The average profit margin in the software industry has declined from 13% in 2010 to 1.5% in 2023 [58] - The introduction of Agents is expected to address these customization issues by leveraging non-structured data and adapting to diverse business processes [68][73] 3. Overseas: Agents Have Started to Take Off - Major companies like Microsoft and Salesforce are leading the charge in developing AI Agents [98] - Microsoft has established CoreAI to support the development and deployment of AI applications and Agents [100] 4. Related Targets - Key domestic players in the Agent space include ByteDance's UI-TARS and Zhiyu's AutoGLM, both of which are making strides in AI capabilities [27][32] - The report highlights various companies and their advancements in AI Agent technology, including Microsoft, Salesforce, and SAP [5][6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank [1] Core Views - Ningbo Bank's revenue growth accelerated to 8.2% year-on-year in 2024, driven by a significant increase in non-interest income in Q4 2024 [6][7] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in profit growth compared to revenue growth, primarily due to increased effective tax rates [6][7] - The bank's loan growth was robust, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8% in Q4 2024, leading to a total of 223.3 billion yuan in new loans for the year [6][7] - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio holding steady at 0.76% and a decline in the provision coverage ratio to 389% [6][7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2024, Ningbo Bank reported total revenue of 666 billion yuan, up 8.2% from the previous year, and a net profit of 271 billion yuan, up 6.2% [4][5] - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 3.95 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.56% [5][9] - The forecast for net profit growth is adjusted to 6.2% for 2024, 5.5% for 2025, and 7.2% for 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook due to potential interest rate cuts [6][9] - The bank's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.73 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.17 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.93 billion yuan, up 10.5% year-on-year [5][8] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 0.90% in Q4 2024, indicating stable asset quality, with a provision coverage ratio of 425% [5][8] - Credit growth was steady, with loans increasing by 5.8% year-on-year, and deposits growing by 8.0% [5][8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The total operating income for 2024 is projected at 4.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.99% for 2025 and 4.70% for 2026 [6][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 10.53% in 2024, 9.61% in 2025, and 10.85% in 2026 [6][11] - The company’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 0.51, indicating potential undervaluation [8][13] Performance Comparison - The company’s stock closed at 5.29 yuan, with a market capitalization of 9.707 billion yuan [2][13] - The company’s dividend yield stands at 3.40%, which is competitive within the banking sector [2][13] - Compared to its peers, the company maintains a favorable return on equity (ROE) of 11.44% for 2024 [13]