Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous catalysis in the satellite sector, particularly in satellite testing and reliability services [1]. - Key companies involved in satellite testing include Cisco Rui, Xise Testing, Guangdian Measurement, and Su Testing, which provide various testing services for satellite products [1]. - The report emphasizes the strategic advantages of Wenchang International Space City for establishing a leading reliability technology center for aerospace products [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Satellite Testing Services - Cisco Rui is investing 400 million yuan to build a reliability testing center in Wenchang, focusing on providing integrated and efficient reliability testing solutions for aerospace products [1]. - Xise Testing offers testing services for satellite products, including Mars probe testing, and serves multiple sectors such as aerospace and aviation [1]. - Guangdian Measurement provides reliability and environmental testing services for clients in the Beidou satellite navigation system [1]. - Su Testing offers comprehensive testing services across the entire industry chain, including electromagnetic compatibility and radiation safety [1]. Testing and Simulation Instruments - Companies like Su Testing and Donghua Testing are developing advanced mechanical testing systems and simulation instruments for satellite communication [1]. - Kunheng Shunwei is launching a new generation of wireless channel simulation instruments to meet the testing needs of next-generation wireless devices [1]. Satellite Assembly and Integration - Shanghai Huguang, a subsidiary of Shanghai Huguang, is involved in commercial satellite assembly and key component design, benefiting from the accelerated demand for satellite manufacturing and rocket launches [1]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with notable mentions such as: - Cisco Rui: Closing price at 40.00 yuan per share - Shanghai Huguang: Closing price at 20.12 yuan per share - Guangdian Measurement: Projected net profit of 2.94 billion yuan for 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment strategy for the railway and highway multimodal transport industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities and value reassessment [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of physical network traffic value and institutional innovation in the railway and highway multimodal transport sector, suggesting a revaluation of its worth [1]. - It identifies high dividend assets as a remedy for the "asset scarcity" and "low interest rate era," with infrastructure asset securitization driving non-linear growth in EPS [3]. - The report discusses the significance of PB recovery for provincial highway enterprises amid local government debt management, indicating that these companies may have higher elasticity in market value [3]. Summary by Sections Highways - The optimization of toll road management regulations is expected to reshape the sector's duration and market dynamics [3]. - High dividend assets remain attractive in the current economic climate, with recommendations for specific companies such as招商公路 and others [3]. - The report highlights the importance of provincial highway enterprises in the local government debt management process, suggesting potential for PB recovery [3]. High-Speed Rail - Price regulation and ticket price reforms are anticipated to improve asset profitability, with significant potential for efficiency gains in both traffic and balance sheets [3]. - The report recommends京沪高铁 as a stable growth "white horse" benefiting from ticket price reforms and steady growth in cross-line traffic [3]. Conventional Rail - The report suggests that the shift from road to rail transport will increase volume, while logistics transformation will enhance unit value [3]. - It emphasizes the need for strategic transformation and railway reform to unlock valuation potential, recommending大秦铁路 as a key player [3]. Multimodal Transport Infrastructure - The report identifies the sector as a high-quality track with light asset operations and heavy asset layout, combining high barriers and high elasticity [5]. - It highlights the importance of systematic operational capabilities and the potential for leading companies to benefit from being "standard setters" [5]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a significant opportunity for cross-border multimodal transport logistics growth, with嘉友国际 recommended for investment [5]. Market Trends - The report notes that from 2018 to now, the number of vehicles in China has increased from 229 million to 345 million, indicating robust growth in road network traffic [38]. - It mentions that highway construction investment reached 28,240 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations for stabilization and rebound in 2025 due to policy optimization [40]. - The density of the national highway network reached 192 kilometers per 10,000 square kilometers as of 2023, suggesting room for improvement [47]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that toll road companies have faced increasing expenditure, with a significant gap between toll revenue and debt repayment costs [53]. - It highlights the need for regulatory optimization in toll road management to alleviate financial pressures and improve investment returns [59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank, reiterating its position as a top pick in the banking sector [8] Core Views - Suzhou Bank's major shareholder, Guofa Group, has significantly increased its stake, demonstrating confidence in the bank's long-term value and growth potential [4] - The bank's asset quality and robust provision coverage provide a solid foundation for stable long-term returns, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio below 1% and a provision coverage ratio around 4% [4] - Suzhou Bank's expansion strategy focuses on key regions in Suzhou and Jiangsu Province, with a clear path to achieving a trillion-yuan asset scale [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Suzhou Bank's net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3%, 8.1%, and 9.2% from 2024 to 2026, respectively [8] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase, supported by improved leverage and cost efficiency [4] - Suzhou Bank's price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2024 is 0.7x, indicating potential undervaluation compared to peers [4] Expansion Strategy - Suzhou Bank's expansion is driven by its focus on the Suzhou metropolitan area and four key regions in Jiangsu Province, contributing over 80% of its asset growth [12] - The bank's loan growth rate in 3Q24 was 14%, leading its peers, with further potential growth if the impact of reduced business loans is factored in [4] Asset Quality and Provisioning - Suzhou Bank is one of only five listed banks with an NPL ratio below 1% and a provision coverage ratio around 4%, which supports its ability to maintain stable earnings [4] - The bank's provision coverage ratio is expected to decline slightly from 522.77% in 2023 to 401.60% by 2026, reflecting a controlled approach to risk management [16] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Suzhou Bank's valuation remains attractive, with a 2024 PB ratio of 0.7x, which is a 10% discount compared to the average PB ratio of banks with similar asset quality metrics [4] - The bank's dividend yield is projected to be 4.9% in 2024 and 5.2% in 2025, making it an appealing option for income-focused investors [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6][7]. Core Insights - The company announced its mid-term profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per 10 shares, marking the highest dividend since its listing in 2019. This distribution represents over 75% of the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [6][7]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program with a total amount reaching 360 million yuan as of November 29, 2024, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future [6][7]. - The management has undergone a restructuring and introduced an equity incentive plan, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency. The company reported a revenue of 816 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and a net profit of 109 million yuan, up 50.2% year-on-year [6][7]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, and a net profit of 189 million yuan, reflecting a 42.2% increase compared to the previous year [8][11]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 297 million yuan, 397 million yuan, and 530 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 34, 26, and 19 [7][8]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 48.91%, an increase of 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the rail transit equipment sector [1]. Core Insights - Railway fixed asset investment in China is expected to exceed 840 billion yuan for the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 11.1% from January to November, with November alone seeing a 12.48% increase [2]. - The railway investment trend has shown consistent growth since March, maintaining around a 10% increase, with projections suggesting that 2025 will see significant investment certainty due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" aiming for 165,000 kilometers of operational railway, including 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail [2][3]. - Passenger volume reached a historical high with 4 billion trips from January to November, reflecting a 12.44% year-on-year increase, while the profitability of the national railway improved significantly with total revenue of 900.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters [2]. - The demand for new train sets is expected to surge in 2025, with a notable increase in tenders for high-speed trains, indicating a robust investment environment in the rail vehicle sector [3]. Summary by Sections Railway Investment - Fixed asset investment in railways is projected to exceed 840 billion yuan for the year, with a consistent growth rate of around 10% since March [2]. - The investment in November alone was 76.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.48% [1]. Passenger Volume and Profitability - The national railway recorded a passenger volume of 4 billion trips from January to November, a 12.44% increase year-on-year, achieving a historical high [2]. - The national railway's total revenue for the first three quarters was 900.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, indicating improved profitability [2]. Vehicle Investment and Recommendations - The tendering for high-speed trains has increased significantly, with a total of 245 sets tendered this year, a 49.39% increase from the previous year [3]. - Investment in the vehicle sector is expected to remain high, with recommendations to focus on key players in the industry such as China CRRC, Sifang Co., and others involved in core components and systems [3].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 25.59 | | 资产负债率 % | 6.43 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 205/205 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 计算机 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 (8621)23297818× hejl@swsresearch.com | --- | --- | |----- ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic equipment industry as "Overweight" [2][14]. Core Insights - Perovskite battery technology is making significant breakthroughs, with GW-level production capacity gradually being established. The industry is expected to see substantial growth due to the advantages of perovskite batteries, including high theoretical efficiency, low manufacturing costs, and lightweight characteristics [3][4]. - The transition from laboratory to industrialization for perovskite batteries is accelerating, with domestic manufacturers actively planning mass production lines. Notable achievements include successful shipments of perovskite components and record-breaking efficiency levels [4]. - The industrial development of perovskite batteries is anticipated to drive demand for related equipment, as the production process is more streamlined compared to traditional silicon batteries. The value of a GW-level production line is estimated to be around 1 billion yuan, with potential reductions in costs as production scales up [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Perovskite batteries utilize organic metal halide semiconductors as light-absorbing materials, offering a theoretical light conversion efficiency of up to 33% for single-junction cells and 45% for tandem cells, significantly higher than the 29.4% limit of silicon batteries [3]. - The manufacturing process for perovskite batteries is simpler and faster, allowing for the use of lightweight and flexible substrates, which broadens application scenarios [3]. Market Developments - Key companies in the industry include JingShan Light Machine, DeLong Laser, JiePuTe, DiEr Laser, and DaZu Laser, all of which are involved in providing equipment and solutions for perovskite battery production [5]. - Recent financing activities, such as the 500 million yuan raised by Kunshan GCL Photovoltaic Materials Co., will support the construction of a GW-level perovskite production line expected to be operational by 2025 [2]. Equipment Demand - The production process for perovskite batteries is expected to reduce the number of steps and processing time, leading to a concentrated value chain. The core equipment required includes coating, laser processing, and packaging [4]. - As production lines transition from hundreds of megawatts to gigawatt levels, the demand for supporting equipment is projected to increase significantly [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [17]. Core Viewpoints - The trend of "Smart Driving Equality" has emerged, with BYD accelerating the mass production of the Orin platform, and the three-eye solution becoming the largest increment. This trend is validated by the performance of lidar suppliers like Suteng Juchuang and Hesai Technology [2][7]. - The penetration rate of smart driving in mid-to-low-end models is increasing, with pure vision solutions expected to drive up the usage of vehicle-mounted cameras. From January to September this year, the number of 8MP front-view cameras in passenger cars reached 2.752 million, with a penetration rate rising from 10.6% in 2023 to 23.8% [2][8]. - There is still room for improvement in the configuration of chips and lidar in mid-to-high-end models. The upcoming mass production of NVIDIA's Thor chip will mark a top-tier choice for high-level intelligent solutions, while the Orin X solution is expected to become a mainstream option [3][9]. - Investment recommendations include strong domestic manufacturers like BYD and Great Wall Motors, as well as component companies with strong growth or overseas expansion capabilities such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring Co [4]. Summary by Sections Smart Driving Equality - The "Smart Driving Equality" trend is confirmed, with BYD focusing resources on the Orin platform for mass production and delivery. The addition of the three-eye vision solution in numerous models further supports the trend of making advanced smart driving available in the price range below 150,000 yuan [2][7]. Mid-to-Low-End Models - Mid-to-low-end models are primarily adopting pure vision solutions to save costs, leading to a significant increase in the deployment of BYD's three-eye vision solutions. This is expected to further enhance the demand for vehicle-mounted cameras [2][8]. Mid-to-High-End Models - The configuration of chips and lidar in mid-to-high-end models is expected to improve, with the mass production of NVIDIA's Thor chip and the Orin X solution becoming mainstream. Lidar is viewed as a critical safety feature in models priced above 300,000 yuan [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic manufacturers and component companies that exhibit strong performance growth or overseas expansion potential, highlighting companies like BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Fuyao Glass [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the smart meter industry, indicating strong growth potential driven by increasing demand for smart grid solutions and energy management [1][3]. Core Insights - Smart meters play a crucial role in modern energy management and utilization, with various types including mechanical, electronic, and smart meters, each offering distinct advantages [1][20]. - The global smart meter market is expected to grow significantly, with shipments projected to increase from 162 million units in 2024 to 236 million units by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.81% [2][30]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Latin America, present substantial growth opportunities due to low penetration rates of smart meters [2][40]. - The Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) solutions enhance China's competitive edge in exporting smart meters, particularly in regions with underdeveloped AMI standards [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Smart Meter Overview - Smart meters are essential for energy management and have multiple functions, including accurate energy consumption measurement and real-time monitoring [1][22]. - The transition to smart meters is crucial for reducing costs and enhancing safety in energy management [1][25]. - China's smart meter market has seen rapid growth, with a total of 882 million units tendered from 2009 to 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 29.85% [1][27]. 2. Global Smart Meter Market Growth - The global smart meter market is experiencing robust growth, with investment amounts rising significantly, reaching over $20 billion in 2021, nearly doubling since 2015 [2][30]. - The penetration rates of smart meters vary significantly across regions, with developed countries having higher rates and emerging markets like Africa and Latin America showing substantial potential for growth [2][40]. 3. AMI Solutions and Competitive Advantage - AMI solutions are critical for enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers in international markets, particularly in regions with less mature AMI frameworks [2][3]. - The report suggests that companies like Haixing Electric, Samsung Medical, and Weisheng Holdings, which have established overseas factories and service centers, are well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Viewpoints - The company plans to spin off its real estate business (Yuehai Properties) through a special dividend distribution, allowing it to focus on its core water business [7] - After the spin-off, the company's operating performance and overall value are expected to significantly improve, as it will no longer be affected by the volatility of the real estate business [7] - The company's water business is stable, with high-quality assets in the Dongjiang water project, and its valuation is expected to rise after the spin-off [8] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 34% YoY to HKD 3.12 billion, mainly due to a HKD 1.81 billion impairment loss from Yuehai Properties [7] - Excluding the impact of the real estate business, the company's core profit in 2023 was HKD 4.93 billion [7] - The company's operating cash flow in 2023 was HKD 10.71 billion, with HKD 7.1 billion coming from the core business after excluding Yuehai Properties [9] - In H1 2024, the company's operating cash flow was HKD 4.88 billion, with HKD 3.59 billion from the core business after excluding Yuehai Properties [9] Valuation and Forecast - The report maintains the company's profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at HKD 4.003 billion, HKD 4.101 billion, and HKD 4.120 billion, respectively [8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.5x, 8.3x, and 8.3x for 2024-2026 [8] Debt and Dividend - As of H1 2024, the company's total assets were HKD 139.8 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58% [11] - After spinning off Yuehai Properties, which has a higher debt-to-asset ratio of 87%, the company's overall debt level is expected to decrease significantly [11] - The company's dividend payout ratio in 2024H1 was 65%, consistent with 2023 [12] Business Focus - The company will no longer hold any shares in Yuehai Properties after the spin-off, allowing it to fully focus on its water business [7] - The spin-off is expected to enhance the company's operational efficiency and valuation by eliminating the drag from the real estate sector [7][8]