Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The key issue is the residents' balance sheet, with housing prices being a crucial determining factor. Since 2021, the national second-hand housing prices have dropped by 31%, leading to a significant decline in the value of existing housing stock [3][75] - The current housing market shows signs of demand support and supply constraints, indicating a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics, especially in first and second-tier cities [4][5] - The outlook for the industry suggests a focus on stabilizing prices and a bottoming out, with total market activity expected to remain weak but with structural resilience in certain segments [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Core Issues - The residents' balance sheet is critical, and housing prices are a significant factor influencing it. The estimated decline in housing prices has led to a substantial drop in the value of existing housing stock, which is projected to reach 285 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a 23% decrease from the peak in 2021 [3][75] 2. Market Status - The real estate market has undergone deep adjustments since 2021, with a pessimistic outlook. However, there are emerging positive factors, such as an increase in the proportion of first-time buyers in the transaction structure. The total housing transaction volume is expected to decline to 1.38 billion square meters in 2024, below the estimated mid-term demand range [4] 3. Policy Outlook - The focus of policies has shifted towards stabilizing housing prices and repairing residents' balance sheets. Recent policy measures have shown effectiveness, with several cities reporting stabilization in housing prices. Future policies are expected to include measures such as lowering mortgage rates and optimizing purchase restrictions [5][6] 4. Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to stabilize, with total activity remaining weak but structural resilience in first and second-tier cities. The report predicts a decline in sales area by 4.5%, sales revenue by 6.4%, and investment by 9.9% in 2025 [5][6] 5. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and those that are undervalued. Specific companies highlighted include Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments, among others [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the education industry, particularly highlighting the transformation in business models and the potential for high growth in revenue and profits due to the shift from fully market-driven competition to franchising [2][11] Core Views - The K12 after-school tutoring sector is transitioning from a fully market-driven model to a franchising model, leading to rapid capacity expansion and significant revenue and profit growth [2][11] - Vocational education is seeing a recovery in profitability as capital expenditures peak and investment in education slows, increasing the certainty of dividends [2] - The education index underperformed the benchmark index in 2024, with the K12 after-school tutoring sector experiencing a significant pullback, leading to a decline in the overall education index [4][6] K12 After-School Tutoring - The "Double Reduction" policy has significantly reduced the capacity of K12 subject-based tutoring, with a 96% reduction in offline institutions and an 87% reduction in online institutions [14][16][18] - The market size of K12 subject-based tutoring has contracted by over 90%, with the post-"Double Reduction" market size estimated at 58.9 billion yuan, only 6% of the pre-"Double Reduction" size [20] - The franchising model is expected to drive rapid capacity expansion for compliant institutions, leading to high growth in revenue and profits [11] - Non-compliant institutions supply only 11.2% of the market capacity, which does not significantly impact the competitive landscape [26] - Quality education is replacing subject-based tutoring, with a focus on holistic education for younger students and continued demand for subject-based tutoring in high school due to unchanged college entrance exam mechanisms [30][34] Vocational Education and Higher Education - Vocational education is benefiting from the "Quality Improvement Action Plan," which has led to increased investment in education and improved teaching quality, though this has temporarily reduced profitability [63][72] - Private higher education institutions are expected to see a recovery in profitability as capital expenditures peak and investment in education slows, leading to increased dividend certainty [63][90] - The enrollment rate in higher education is expected to continue rising, with private institutions likely to absorb most of the new demand due to limited expansion capacity in public institutions [100][106] Market Trends and Growth Projections - The quality education market is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to reach 8.252 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by increasing demand for holistic education and the integration of subject-based and quality education [40][42] - The integration of subject-based and quality education is expected to be particularly popular, with the market size for subject-integrated quality education projected to reach 7.549 trillion yuan by 2030 [42][45] - Private higher education institutions are expected to see a 40% increase in student enrollment by 2030, driven by rising enrollment rates and limited expansion in public institutions [106][110] Key Companies and Valuation - Leading companies in the K12 after-school tutoring sector, such as New Oriental and TAL Education, are expected to benefit from the shift to franchising and the expansion of quality education [49][50] - The education sector is currently undervalued, with significant growth potential in both the K12 after-school tutoring and vocational education sectors [115][116]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "standard allocation" for the food and beverage sector in 2025, with a balanced allocation between liquor and food products, emphasizing an overweight position in dairy products [3][32]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.03% in 2024, with an excess return of -16.13%, ranking 29th among the Shenwan first-level sub-industries [3][7]. - A significant policy shift is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2024, focusing on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the sector's long-term opportunities [3][32]. - The report indicates that the sector's performance in early 2025 will be driven by policy and expectations, while the second half will depend on fundamental performance and earnings [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Sector Review - The food and beverage sector's performance was poor, with three out of four years from 2021 to 2024 ranking in the bottom tier [3][7]. - The sector's absolute returns were negative, with half of the months in 2024 showing negative returns [11][19]. 2. Liquor Sector Investment Strategy - The liquor industry faces significant demand pressure, with expectations of a challenging first quarter in 2025 [4][32]. - Long-term, if the economy improves in 2025, the liquor sector may see a bottoming out of its fundamentals, with key recommendations including Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai [4][32]. 3. Consumer Goods Sector Investment Strategy - The consumer goods sector is expected to stabilize, with opportunities arising from new retail formats and consumer trends focused on health and convenience [4][32]. - Key recommendations include Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy, among others [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating that the sector has outperformed the market by nearly 20 percentage points year-to-date, driven by favorable policies and strong earnings performance [3][11]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to see a significant recovery in performance, with quarterly earnings showing strong upward momentum. The report highlights that the policies implemented since late September have exceeded expectations, contributing to a robust recovery in the brokerage sector's fundamentals [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions as a key investment theme, with ongoing reforms in the capital market expected to benefit leading brokerage firms [3][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Performance - Since late September, the brokerage sector has shown a strong recovery, with quarterly earnings consistently exceeding expectations. The net profit for the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 11% year-on-year but increased by 18% quarter-on-quarter, while the third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% [3][11]. - The report notes that the brokerage sector's performance has been bolstered by favorable policies and a significant increase in trading volumes driven by retail investors [3][4]. 2. Outlook on Market Structure - The report outlines four key investment strategies in light of ongoing mergers and acquisitions within the brokerage sector, emphasizing the need to focus on leading firms that are likely to benefit from capital market reforms [3][5]. - The report also highlights the expected improvement in investment banking activities, with a gradual normalization of IPOs and an increase in refinancing activities [4][5]. 3. Business Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from increased trading activity and a growing number of new accounts, with a focus on enhancing wealth management services and understanding client needs [4][5]. - The report suggests that the asset management segment will see significant growth, particularly in ETFs, as firms adapt to changing market conditions [4][5]. 4. Earnings Outlook - The report projects a year-on-year earnings growth of 2% for 2024 and 15% for 2025, indicating a positive trend in the brokerage sector's financial performance [3][5].

行 业 及 产 业 - 非银金融/ 保险Ⅱ 2024 年 12 月 13 日个人养老金制度喜迎六重优化 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 看好 ——《关于全面实施个人养老金制度的通知》点评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 孙冀齐 (8621)23297818× sunjq@swsresearch.com 个人养老金试点工作满两年，将于 12 月 15 日步入全面推广期。12 月 12 日，人社部、财政 部、税务总局、金管局、证监会联合发布《关于全面实施个人养老金制度的通知》（简称 "《通知》"），明确自 2024 年 12 月 15 日起，个人养老金制度的实施范围将扩大至全 国。个人养老金制度于 2022 年 11 月 25 日在 36 个城市或地区开启试点工作，截至 2023 年 3 月，账户总缴费金额达 182 亿元；根据最新可得数据，参与人数已超 7000 万人，占 2023 年末总人口/基本养老保险参与人数的 5.0% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Hong Kong internet sector, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the industry, anticipating it to outperform the overall market [8][65]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in the Hong Kong internet sector driven by improved profitability, increased share buybacks, and a shift in monetary policy, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and significant changes in China's monetary and fiscal policies [3][9]. - Key trends include the emergence of AI as a new growth driver, with major internet companies investing heavily in AI technologies, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and revenue growth [4][25]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a reduction in competition among major players, allowing for new growth opportunities in sectors like automotive and AI [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Shareholder Returns and New Competitive Relationships - Shareholder returns are improving, with increased buybacks and dividends among major internet companies [16][19]. - A new competitive relationship is forming as companies focus on user value and operational efficiency, moving away from closed ecosystems [22][25]. 2. Internet Platforms: Easing Competition and New Growth Curves - Major players like Tencent and Alibaba are focusing on AI and automotive sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [4][19]. - Tencent's gaming pipeline remains strong, with significant global expansion potential [30][31]. 3. Youth Consumption Trends - The report identifies a growing trend in "self-consumption" among the youth demographic, particularly in sectors like trendy toys and card games, which are gaining popularity [5][66]. - Companies like Pop Mart are successfully transitioning from channel products to brand products, expanding their IP offerings [75][82]. 4. Entertainment Content: Exploring Niche Market Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential in niche markets within the entertainment sector, with platforms like NetEase Cloud Music and Bilibili showing strong user engagement and growth potential [86][92]. - Bilibili is recovering from previous lows, with a focus on enhancing its advertising capabilities and user monetization [92][96]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for key companies in the sector, highlighting their market capitalization, revenue forecasts, and profit margins for 2024 and 2025 [119].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies to stabilize the economy, particularly focusing on the real estate market to prevent further declines and stimulate demand [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of repairing residents' balance sheets and boosting consumption as key components of the policy framework [1][3]. - The government plans to accelerate urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which are expected to release housing demand [1][3]. Summary by Sections Macro Economic Insights - The conference called for a more active fiscal policy, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing long-term special bonds to support key projects [6][7]. - A moderately loose monetary policy is also recommended, with potential interest rate cuts to ensure ample liquidity [6][7]. - The focus is on coordinating various policies to stabilize the economy and enhance domestic demand [6][7]. Real Estate Sector Insights - The report indicates a strong commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on preventing further declines and supporting housing demand [1][3]. - The government aims to control new land supply while revitalizing existing land and commercial properties [1][3]. - The emphasis on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations is expected to accelerate demand recovery [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their product strength and valuation recovery potential, including: - Strong product companies: Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Poly Developments, China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, and Jianfa International [1][3]. - Undervalued recovery companies: New Town Holdings, Jianfa Shares, Yuexiu Property, and Longfor Group [1][3]. - Companies benefiting from land acquisition and urban renovation: Yuexiu Property and Huafa Shares [1][3]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike and I Love My Home [1][3]. - Property management firms: China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, China Overseas Property, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating that the current cycle is at a bottom and improvements are expected by 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The steel industry has been affected by declining demand from the real estate sector, but signs of a cyclical bottom are emerging. Three factors are expected to improve the industry landscape in 2025: supply-side adjustments, resilient manufacturing demand, and declining raw material costs [3]. - Supply-side policies, including production limits and cash flow pressures on certain companies, are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated capacity, leading to increased industry concentration [3]. - Manufacturing demand remains resilient, supporting the profitability of plate and special steel segments, while macro policies are expected to stabilize construction demand [3]. - The anticipated decline in raw material prices, particularly iron ore, is expected to restore profitability for steel companies [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply Constraints - Energy consumption requirements are expected to suppress steel supply, with a long-term focus on reducing production capacity in line with carbon neutrality goals [8]. - The government has set targets for energy consumption reduction, which will further reinforce production control expectations [10]. 2. Demand Dynamics - Overall demand for steel is projected to decline, with structural differentiation emerging. The construction sector's demand is expected to stabilize, while manufacturing demand shows resilience [13]. - The report provides detailed forecasts for various sectors, indicating a shift in steel consumption from construction to manufacturing [13]. 3. Cost and Profitability - Cost pressures are expected to ease, leading to improved profit expectations for the steel industry. The anticipated increase in iron ore supply is expected to lower prices, benefiting steel producers [3][12]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend steel companies that primarily serve the manufacturing sector, such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel. It also highlights the potential of high-end stainless steel pipes benefiting from the oil and gas sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating due to favorable macroeconomic policies and improving consumer demand [1][4]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to benefit the home furnishing sector [1][4]. - The home furnishing industry is anticipated to see a boost from the "old-for-new" consumption policy, which has shown significant results in benchmark cities like Guangzhou, with substantial subsidies driving sales [1][4][5]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in second-hand housing transactions, which will support home furnishing demand [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the positive signals from the Central Political Bureau regarding economic recovery and the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly in the home furnishing sector [1][4]. Consumer Demand - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue to stimulate demand in the home furnishing market, with significant sales driven by government subsidies [1][4][5]. - As of October 24, 2023, approximately 6.3 million home furnishing products have been subsidized, leading to a total sales increase of 19 billion yuan [1][4]. Real Estate Market - The report notes a marginal improvement in the real estate sector, with second-hand home transactions in key cities showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1% from January to October 2023 [1][4][5]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in the real estate market will further enhance consumer confidence and spending in the home furnishing sector [1][4][5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, including Sophia, Oppein, and Kuka Home, as they are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions and government policies [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, specifically highlighting Nvidia's Omniverse as a key player in the next generation of "soft core" technology [1]. Core Insights - Nvidia's Omniverse is positioned as the next "soft core" following CUDA, focusing on enhancing 3D design and simulation capabilities in industrial applications [4][5]. - The evolution of AI towards physical AI is emphasized, which includes integrating physical AI models into autonomous machines and generating data that adheres to physical laws for model training [5][6]. - The report identifies key players in the market that possess 3D graphics capabilities and physical solving abilities, which are expected to become core platform software in robotics and intelligent driving [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Omniverse as the "Soft Core" - Nvidia introduced Omniverse in 2019 as a real-time collaboration platform for 3D design, aiming to transform traditional 3D workflows into collaborative designs across applications and devices [16][17]. - The platform's ability to unify file formats and enhance image processing efficiency is crucial for its functionality [19][21]. 1.1 Real-time Simulation and Collaboration - Omniverse simplifies the 3D software connection, allowing users to synchronize across devices and applications, significantly improving the efficiency of 3D design processes [17][19]. 1.2 Importance of Simulation Capabilities - The report highlights that the enhancement of simulation capabilities is key to achieving realistic industrial applications, with a focus on physical modeling and simulation [38][40]. 2. AI Moving Towards Physicality - The integration of AI with physical laws is discussed, with two main levels: embedding physical AI in autonomous machines and generating physical data for model training [52][56]. - The report emphasizes the need for reliable physical simulation environments to improve the efficiency and accuracy of autonomous machines [58]. 3. Global Vendor Strategies - Various companies are strategically positioning themselves in the market, such as Altair with its PhysicsAI tool for rapid simulation predictions based on historical data [74][78]. - Ansys is leveraging Omniverse to enhance the simulation of autonomous vehicles, emphasizing the need for extensive testing in controlled environments [80][82]. - Suochen Technology is utilizing generative AI for real-time simulation, focusing on natural language interaction for modeling [88][90]. 4. Conclusion - The report concludes that Nvidia's Omniverse and the advancements in physical AI are pivotal for the future of robotics and intelligent driving, with a strong emphasis on collaboration and simulation capabilities [4][5][6].