证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 宏观定期 政策半月观—下半年政策有 4 大节点 近半月，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，陆家嘴论坛召开。我们对每 半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策；3） 行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（2025.6.9-6.22）的政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策延续聚焦稳增长、扩内需，具体有 6 大焦点： 一是 6.9-10 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，聚焦关税和稀土，本次 会议后中美关税水平保持现状，但随着 7.9（对全球）和 8.12（对中国）两个 暂缓期结束，继续紧盯后续美国与中国、欧盟等关税谈判。二是 6.17 总书记 出席第二节中国-中亚峰会并作主旨发言，继 4 月东南亚之行、5 月访问俄罗 斯，6 月来到中亚，也是今年以来第三次元首出访聚焦周边，此次峰会聚焦共 建"一带一路"、人员往来便利化、绿色矿产、贸易畅通等领域。三是 6.18 陆 家嘴论坛开幕，"一行一会一局"一把手出席开幕式并发表主题演讲，其中， 央行将在上海实施 8 项金融开放政策，金监总局聚焦支持上海金融开放，证 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the stablecoin and RWA sectors [6]. Core Insights - The competition in the stablecoin market is intensifying, particularly in Hong Kong, with major players like JD.com and Ant Group actively seeking licenses to issue stablecoins [10][11]. - The global stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with a total market capitalization reaching approximately $230.74 billion as of June 1, 2025, representing a staggering increase of about 5745.88% since 2019 [42]. - The RWA (Real World Asset) market is also expanding rapidly, with a total market size of around $23 billion, showing a growth rate of 6.4% over the past month [49]. Summary by Sections Stablecoin Development - The Hong Kong government is advancing its stablecoin policy, with the "Stablecoin Ordinance" set to take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing qualified applicants to issue stablecoins [9][31]. - Major companies like JD.com and Ant Group are in the process of applying for stablecoin licenses, aiming to leverage blockchain technology for cross-border payments and other financial services [11][16]. RWA Market Growth - The RWA market is projected to accelerate with multiple projects launching in 2024, covering sectors such as energy and agriculture [44]. - Notable projects include Ant Group's collaboration with Longxin Group for financing based on renewable energy assets, marking a significant step in the RWA space [22][45]. Industry Players and Infrastructure - Key players in the stablecoin infrastructure include ZhongAn Online, Sifang Technology, and others, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for stablecoin solutions [52]. - The report highlights the involvement of local Hong Kong entities like Standard Chartered Bank in forming joint ventures to issue stablecoins, indicating a collaborative approach to market entry [29][27].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 电力 火电出力由降转增，1-5 月绿电交易电量增长近 50% 本周行情回顾：本周（6.16-6.20）上证指数报收 3359.90 点，下跌 0.51%，沪深 300 指数 报收 3846.64 点，下跌 0.45%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2913.94 点，下跌 1.14%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.68pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 11 位。 本周行业观点： ➢ 5 月火电发电增速由负转正，水电降幅扩大。根据国家统计局发布数据，5 月份全国 规上发电量 7378 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.5%，增速比 4 月份放缓 0.4pct；日均发电 238.0 亿千瓦时。1—5 月份，工业发电量 37266 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.3%，扣除天 数原因，日均发电量同比增长 1.0%。 分品种看，5 月单月，规上工业火电由降转增，水电降幅扩大，核电、风电、太阳能 发电增速放缓。其中，规上工业火电同比增长 1.2%，4 月份为下降 2.3%；规上工业 水电下降 14.3%，降幅比 4 月份扩大 7.8 个百分 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing trend of long-term capital entering the market, with a target for large state-owned insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025 [2][3] - As of June 20, 2025, insurance capital has made significant investments in bank stocks, with eight instances of insurance companies acquiring stakes in various banks [3] - Southbound funds have shown a strong preference for Hong Kong bank stocks, with net inflows exceeding 700 billion yuan, and banks like China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank being among the top beneficiaries [4] Group 2 - The banking sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on cyclical stocks that may offer alpha returns [5] - The banking industry has a dividend yield of 4.19%, ranking third among 30 sectors, indicating its stable performance and attractiveness for long-term investment [4] - The report suggests that banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank are worth monitoring under the cyclical strategy, while Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank are highlighted for their dividend strategies [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [7][32]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector is expected to benefit from AI applications, IP monetization, and mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on multi-modal industry directions and companies with IP advantages [1][2]. - The Chinese gaming market reached a scale of 28.051 billion yuan in May 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.86% and a month-on-month growth of 2.56% [3][21]. - The report highlights the emergence of new AI models and video generation technologies, indicating a shift towards dynamic content creation in the media industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.78% during the week of June 16-20, 2025, influenced by the overall market trend [11][12]. - The top five stocks in the media sector by growth during this period were Hualuo Baina (15.7%), Times Publishing (12.8%), Century Huachuang (11.7%), Ciweng Media (10.1%), and Giant Network (8.9%) [12][16]. Sub-sector Insights - Key focus areas include resource integration expectations with companies like Zhongshi Media and Guoxin Culture, AI applications with companies like Rongxin Culture and Aofei Entertainment, and gaming with companies like Shenzhou Taiyue and Kaixin Network [2][18]. - The report suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises in the media sector, such as Ciweng Media and Wuxin Media, due to increased capital advantages [2][18]. Key Events Review - The introduction of a new feature by WeChat allowing public accounts to link to WeChat stores enhances sales opportunities for merchants [20]. - The launch of the Kimi-Dev-72B open-source code model marks a significant advancement in AI software engineering capabilities [4]. Data Tracking - The gaming market's performance is tracked, with notable titles like "Kingshot" and "Genshin Impact" contributing to overseas sales growth [3][21]. - The box office for the week of June 14-20, 2025, reached approximately 302 million yuan, with "How to Train Your Dragon" leading the rankings [23].

Group 1 - The coal mining sector is experiencing a slight recovery in prices as summer demand begins to rise, with the market showing signs of life after a prolonged period of decline [2][12][36] - The China Coal Index is at 3,215.27 points, down 0.66%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.21 percentage points, ranking 9th among the CITIC sector performance [2][82] - The report highlights that the main production areas are maintaining stable supply levels, with some coal mines resuming production after previous shutdowns due to safety and environmental inspections [12][39] Group 2 - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is gradually increasing as temperatures rise, leading to a quick uptick in daily consumption by power plants [12][27] - Port inventories are decreasing, but the upward price momentum is limited due to cautious buying behavior from downstream users, primarily relying on long-term contracts [14][36] - The report notes that the focus should be on the intensity of demand during the peak season and any potential policy changes that may affect the market [6][12] Group 3 - The coking coal market is showing mixed price movements, with supply constraints due to environmental checks leading to a slight recovery in prices in some regions [39][42] - The report emphasizes that the overall supply of coking coal is decreasing, with some coal mines still not back to full production, impacting market dynamics [39][58] - The report suggests that the future price movements of coking coal will depend on several factors, including domestic production adjustments and potential import disruptions [39][58] Group 4 - Key recommended stocks in the coal sector include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and new energy companies like Electric Power Investment Energy, indicating a positive outlook for these firms [7][8] - The report identifies several companies with strong performance metrics, suggesting that high-quality firms are likely to outperform in the current market environment [8][7] - The focus on coal companies with potential for recovery and growth is highlighted, particularly those that have recently undergone significant changes or restructuring [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing Radar Six-Facet Chart - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates equity market performance through a multi-dimensional framework, incorporating liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical signals, and crowding indicators. These dimensions are aggregated into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select 21 indicators across six dimensions - Aggregate indicators into four categories - Normalize the composite score to the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to timing equity markets, offering insights into multiple influencing factors[1][6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Monetary Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor assesses the direction of monetary policy by analyzing changes in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days[12] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days - If the factor value > 0, monetary policy is deemed accommodative; if < 0, it is deemed restrictive[12] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures the directional stance of monetary policy[12] 2. Factor Name: Monetary Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, this factor measures the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates to assess liquidity conditions[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 - Smooth and z-score the deviation - Assign scores: >1.5 standard deviations = -1 (tight liquidity), <-1.5 standard deviations = 1 (loose liquidity)[15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a quantitative measure of liquidity conditions in the market[15] 3. Factor Name: Credit Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the trend in credit transmission to the real economy using medium- and long-term loan data[17] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the year-over-year growth of medium- and long-term loans over the past 12 months - Compare the current value to the value three months ago - Assign scores: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1[17] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the directional trend of credit transmission effectively[17] 4. Factor Name: Credit Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Credit Strength Factor = (New RMB loans - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign scores: >1.5 standard deviations = 1, <-1.5 standard deviations = -1[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the surprise in credit data relative to expectations[20] 5. Factor Name: Growth Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses PMI data to assess the directional trend of economic growth[23] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the 12-month moving average of PMI data - Compute year-over-year growth - Compare the current value to the value three months ago - Assign scores: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1[23] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a timely measure of economic growth trends[23] 6. Factor Name: Growth Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Growth Strength Factor = (PMI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign scores: >1.5 standard deviations = 1, <-1.5 standard deviations = -1[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the magnitude of surprises in economic growth data[26] 7. Factor Name: Inflation Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses the directional trend of inflation using CPI and PPI data[30] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Inflation Direction Factor = 0.5 × smoothed CPI YoY + 0.5 × raw PPI YoY - Compare the current value to the value three months ago - Assign scores: downward trend = 1, upward trend = -1[30] - **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects the directional trend of inflation effectively[30] 8. Factor Name: Inflation Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[31] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Inflation Strength Factor = average of CPI and PPI forecast deviations - Assign scores: <-1.5 standard deviations = 1, >1.5 standard deviations = -1[31] - **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies inflation surprises relative to expectations[31] 9. Factor Name: Shiller ERP - **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjusts for economic cycles to evaluate equity valuation[35] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Shiller PE = inflation-adjusted average earnings over the past 6 years - Compute Shiller ERP = 1/Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield - Standardize using a 3-year z-score[35] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a cyclically adjusted measure of equity valuation[35] 10. Factor Name: PB - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation using the price-to-book ratio[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute PB × (-1) - Standardize using a 3-year z-score, truncating at ±1.5 standard deviations[37] - **Factor Evaluation**: Offers a simple and effective valuation metric[37] 11. Factor Name: AIAE - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market-wide equity allocation and risk appetite[41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute AIAE = total market cap of CSI All Share Index / (total market cap + total debt) - Standardize using a 3-year z-score[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures overall market risk appetite[41] --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Monetary Direction Factor - Current score: 1[12] 2. Monetary Strength Factor - Current score: -1[15] 3. Credit Direction Factor - Current score: 1[17] 4. Credit Strength Factor - Current score: -1[20] 5. Growth Direction Factor - Current score: -1[23] 6. Growth Strength Factor - Current score: -1[26] 7. Inflation Direction Factor - Current score: 1[30] 8. Inflation Strength Factor - Current score: 1[31] 9. Shiller ERP - Current score: 0.30[39] 10. PB - Current score: -0.18[37] 11. AIAE - Current score: 0.15[41]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 量化周报 市场仍处于日线级别上涨中 市场仍处于日线级别上涨中。本周（6.16-6.20），大盘震荡下行，上证指 数全周收跌 0.51%。在此背景下，非银确认日线级别上涨，汽车、新能源 迎来日线级别下跌。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基 本不存在了。由于上证指数、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 仍处于日线 级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上涨，因此，我们认为 市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，后续市场有望继续上涨。中期来 看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科 创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期 牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 20 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 7 个行业 周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始，而且还是个 普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，A 股景气指数为 20.94，相 比 2023 年底上升 1 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The coding sector has emerged as a phenomenon in AI applications, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2024 to 2029 [1][16] - The adoption rate of AI in U.S. enterprises has increased to 9.2% as of May 2025, up from 7.4% in Q4 2024, with significant growth in education, information, finance, and general services sectors [2][31] - Major AI models are driving a surge in computing power demand, with Google processing over 480 trillion tokens monthly, a 50-fold increase year-on-year [3][39] Summary by Sections Coding - AI coding has become a leading application, with a16z reporting that nearly 90% of code in a high-growth SaaS company is generated by AI tools like Cursor and Claude [13][16] - Cursor, a leading AI programming tool, has seen its annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceed $500 million, marking a 60% increase in just two months [1][24] Agent - Agents are becoming a new growth engine in AI, capable of understanding complex goals and executing multi-step processes, which is accelerating AI adoption across various industries [2][30] - The average budget for AI in enterprises is expected to grow by approximately 75% over the next year, indicating a shift from pilot projects to core IT and business budgets [2][32] Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power is being reinforced by the rapid growth of major AI models, with Google reporting a monthly token processing volume of over 480 trillion, a 50-fold increase from the previous year [3][39] - OpenAI's revenue is projected to double this year to $12.7 billion, driven by a significant increase in paid enterprise users [42] Domestic AI Applications - Domestic AI applications are also progressing, with ByteDance's AI coding product TRAE achieving over 1 million monthly active users [44] - The daily token usage of the Doubao model has increased by 137 times since its launch, highlighting the growing demand for AI capabilities [56] Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the computing power sector include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, and others [9][58] - In the Agent sector, notable companies include Alibaba, Tencent, and Kingsoft Office, among others [9][58]