Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The comprehensive deepening reform policies bring multiple benefits to the consumer sector, including cost reduction in manufacturing and accelerated logistics development[1] - Investors should focus on companies with potential in smart manufacturing, green technology, domestic demand markets, and logistics, such as Midea Group (000333 CH), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH)[1] - Companies like Anta (2020 HK) and Li Ning (2331 HK) in the sportswear sector are expected to gain significant growth opportunities from the new policy dividends[1] Group 2: Market Trends - The policy aims to promote industrial upgrades and new-type industrialization, which will lower manufacturing costs and burdens[10] - The consumer goods manufacturing industry is crucial for meeting the growing consumption demands of the population, including sectors like light industry, textiles, food, and home appliances[10] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing a complete domestic demand system and improving logistics networks to stimulate consumption demand[4] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - China Resources Beer (291 HK) has a target price of 43.90, indicating a potential upside of 62.6% from the current price of 27.00[5] - Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 21.50, representing a potential increase of 49.7% from its closing price of 14.36[5] - Nine Dragons Paper (2689 HK) is highlighted with a target price of 9.90, suggesting a remarkable potential upside of 239.0% from its current price of 2.92[5]

交银国际研究 消息快报 科技行业 科技 2024 年 7 月 22 日 新征程,新机遇——三中全会聚焦系列: 从三中全会看科技行业投资机会:因地制宜发展新质生产力,提升产业 链供应链韧性及和安全水平 2024 年 7 月 15 日至 18 日,第二十届中央委员会第三次全体会议于北京举行。 交银国际宏观策略及各行业研究团队,深入研读三中全会精神与决策,力求以 专业的分析和前瞻性的视角,探索中国式现代化新征程上的新机遇。 本次会议通过《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化 的决定》。该决定明确提出,"健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制", 我们认为其对科技行业,尤其是硬件科技、半导体,以及低空经济、量 子技术相关领域有一定积极作用。 针对硬件科技领域,此次三中全会在"健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制 机制"、"健全促进实体经济和数字经济深度融合制度",以及"健全提升产 业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度"主题下,提出产业深度转型升级;加快 构建促进数字经济发展体制机制,完善促进数字产业化和产业数字化政 策体系;抓紧打造自主可控的产业链供应链,健全强化集成电路、工业 母机、医疗装备、仪器仪表、基础软件、工业软件 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of accelerating the high-end transformation of traditional manufacturing and establishing a self-controllable industrial chain in the context of the recent Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [4][22]. Automotive Industry - The report highlights that China's automotive exports surpassed Japan for the first time in 2023, making China the world's largest automotive exporter, which is expected to drive growth in production and foreign trade [10]. - It suggests focusing on leading automotive companies with supply chain and technological advantages, specifically recommending BYD (1211 HK) as a key investment opportunity [10]. - The report identifies three main investment opportunities in the manufacturing sector: 1) Self-controllable industrial chain focusing on high-end manufacturing segments like industrial mother machines 2) New quality productivity emphasizing the transition of traditional manufacturing to high-end, intelligent, and green production, as well as nurturing new industries such as low-altitude economy and humanoid robots 3) High-end manufacturing exports, particularly in the automotive sector [10].

| --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n消息快报 | | | | | | 证券 | 2024 年 7 月 22 日 | | | | | 证券行业 | | 新征程，新机遇——三中全会聚焦系列： 从三中全会看证券行业投资机会：增强资本市场内在稳定性，助力新质 生产力 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 专业的分析和前瞻性的视角，探索中国式现代化新征程上的新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $4.20, indicating a potential upside of 20.0% from the current price of $3.50 [1][13]. Core Insights - The company has revised its revenue and profit expectations downward for Q2 2024, with revenue now expected to be RMB 7.4 billion, a 4% decrease from previous estimates, and a year-on-year decline of 5% [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for Q2 2024 has been lowered to RMB 240 million, which is below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 480 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 3%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The company anticipates that its membership numbers may hit a low point in Q2 2024 but expects a recovery in Q3 due to the performance of new content [2][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted down by 3% to RMB 31.6 billion, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for net profit from 2023 to 2025 [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is now estimated at RMB 2.9 billion, reflecting a 16% decrease from previous estimates [2][3]. Membership and Advertising Revenue - Membership revenue for Q2 2024 is expected to decline by 5% to RMB 4.5 billion, a 9% year-on-year decrease, primarily due to underperformance in key series [2][11]. - Advertising revenue is projected to decrease by 2% to RMB 1.5 billion in Q2 2024, with brand advertising under pressure due to lower-than-expected performance of key series and a reduction in the number of self-produced variety shows [2][11]. Financial Overview - The company reported a revenue of RMB 28.998 billion in 2022, with a projected revenue of RMB 31.873 billion in 2023, and a slight decline to RMB 31.616 billion in 2024 [3][14]. - The net profit for 2022 was RMB 1.284 billion, with projections of RMB 2.838 billion in 2023 and RMB 2.941 billion in 2024 [3][14]. Market Position - The company's share of the top 20 series viewership has decreased to 20%, trailing behind competitors like Tencent Video and Youku [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the performance of new series in the second half of 2024, which may help stabilize membership revenue [2][11].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 宏观策略 要点解读 "质"是首要任务。此次会议整体上延续了二十大报告的精神，更加突出了"中 国式现代化"，具体的内涵也贴合经济范式从"量"向"质"的转变，会议明确提 出"高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务"。 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 钱昊 Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1853 对于市场体系定性的调整，在追求效率的同时未来会更兼顾公平，在谋发展的 同时，未来也会更兼顾到安全，结合政策方向的协同性、一体性增强，预计政 府将在各个领域扮演更为积极的引领作用。 二十届三中全会公告的八大看点 提出完成改革任务的具体时间点 宏观调控一体性明显提升 推进新型城镇化，城乡发展进入新阶段，有助于扩大内循环，拉动内需 宏观策略 "质"是首要任务。此次会议整体上延续了二十大报告的精神，更加突出了"中 国式现代化"，具体的内涵也贴合经济范式从"量"向"质"的转变，会议明确提出 "高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务"。 对于市场体系定性的调整，在追求效率的同时未来会更兼顾公平，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of $111, indicating a potential upside of 45% from the current price of $76.54 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - Alibaba's e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year, aligning with market performance, while CMR growth is anticipated at 3%, slower than GMV growth due to low monetization rates from new merchants [1][21]. - The company is focusing on enhancing product competitiveness and user experience, which is expected to yield positive results in GMV recovery and international business expansion [6][7][21]. - Revenue projections for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, are set at 1,035,048 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [2][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for FY2025 Q1 is projected at 251,013 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [5][6]. - Net profit for FY2025 is forecasted to be 161,730 million RMB, with an EPS of 68.44 RMB, representing a 9.3% growth [2][5]. - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 10.0 in FY2023 to 8.1 in FY2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [2][7]. Segment Performance - Taobao's revenue is expected to grow by 1% year-on-year, while international business is projected to see a 39% increase, driven by the success of the AliExpress Choice service [21]. - Cloud services are anticipated to recover with mid-single-digit growth, supported by public cloud and AI-related revenues [21]. - Local services are expected to grow by 14%, in line with industry trends, while Cainiao's revenue is projected to increase by 22% due to cross-border logistics [21].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 7 月 19 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 1.33 美元 1.70↓ +27.8% 达达集团 (DADA US) 2 季度业绩预览:快送业务表现优异,京东场域结合仍未大规模变现 2024 年 2 季度业绩预览:我们预计收入 23 亿元(人民币,下同),与彭 博市场预期基本一致,同比下降 12%,下调 4 个百分点主要因京东到家广 告收入低于预期,达达快送/京东到家收入分别同比+44%/-46%(Visible Alpha 一致预期+40%/-41%);经调整净亏损 1.7 亿元,对应亏损率 7.4%, 对比彭博市场预期亏损 1.9 亿元。 分业务线来看,2 季度:1)达达快送:我们预计收入 14 亿元,同比增 44% ,上调4个百分点,得益于持续渗透KA客户获取市场份额,带动同城 配送单量增加。2)京东到家:我们下调收入预测 14%,因广告收入低于 预期。预计京东到家收入同比降 46%至 8.7 亿元,降幅高于 1 季度,主要 受低效业务渠道清理及战略变化如广告系统/资源向京东 app 倾斜影响。2 季度将是业务调整影响最大的季度,我们预计下半年降幅有所收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu (BIDU US) is "Buy" with a target price of $129.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.6% from the current price of $93.73 [1][10]. Core Insights - Baidu's core revenue for Q2 2024 is expected to be 26.4 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. However, the advertising revenue is projected to decline by 3% to 19 billion RMB due to the impact of AI search modifications on traditional ad clicks and weak demand from certain sectors like real estate and automotive [2][3]. - The cloud business is anticipated to maintain a revenue growth of 14% year-on-year, reaching 5.1 billion RMB, driven by increased demand for AI models and API usage [2][3]. - The company is focusing on cost control and operational efficiency, maintaining an adjusted operating profit margin of 25% despite the pressure on advertising revenue [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 123,675 - 2023: 134,598 - 2024E: 138,761 - 2025E: 148,230 - 2026E: 159,279 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 8.8% - 2024E: 3.1% - 2025E: 6.8% - 2026E: 7.5% [4][11]. - Net profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 20,680 - 2023: 28,747 - 2024E: 27,651 - 2025E: 31,564 - 2026E: 34,592 [4][11]. - Adjusted operating profit margin is projected to be 25% for 2024, with a net profit margin of 19.8% [2][3][4]. Business Developments - Baidu's autonomous driving initiative, "萝卜快跑," is expanding its operations in over 10 cities, with a significant increase in the proportion of driverless rides in Wuhan, expected to reach 100% in the coming quarters [3]. - The company plans to deploy 1,000 units of the new RT6 model in Wuhan by the end of 2024, which is expected to optimize operational costs [3]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to $129, corresponding to 11x and 9x P/E ratios for 2024 and 2025, respectively. The current price reflects a P/E ratio of 6.7, which is the lowest in the industry [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Kuaishou (1024 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 55.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.6% from the current closing price of HKD 46.75 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a 10% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2 2024, projecting revenues of RMB 30.5 billion. Adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 63% year-on-year to RMB 4.4 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14.4% [1]. - The e-commerce GMV growth forecast has been revised down to 19% for Q2 and 21% for the full year, primarily due to a slowdown in market growth and increased competition in the live-streaming e-commerce sector [1]. - Advertising revenue is expected to grow rapidly, driven by AI-enabled marketing products, with a projected year-on-year increase of 22% to RMB 17.5 billion in Q2 2024 [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 127.70 billion in 2024, RMB 143.03 billion in 2025, and RMB 158.26 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 10.27 billion in 2023, RMB 18.22 billion in 2024, RMB 22.62 billion in 2025, and RMB 27.49 billion in 2026, indicating a significant recovery from previous losses [2][9]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, reaching 55% by 2024, with a gradual increase in operating profit margin projected to 19.5% by 2026 [9][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that Kuaishou's daily active users (DAU) have remained stable, but growth has lagged behind competitors like Taobao and JD during promotional periods, indicating increased competition in the e-commerce space [1][4]. - The report notes that the advertising market remains robust, with continued investment from various sectors, including media and gaming, contributing to Kuaishou's advertising revenue growth [1][6].