| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|---------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 上海 | | | | | | | | | | | | 西安 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 太原 | | | | | | | | | | | | 成都 | | | | | | | | | | | | 三亚 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | | | | | | | | | | | | 杭州 | | | | | | | | | | | | 长沙 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 海口 北 ...

全球AI10组合个股表现 引言 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-------| | | 总体概览 | 大宗组合细览 | | | • | 全球AI组合表现 vs.MSCIACWI | 6 • 全球大宗精选组合个股表现 | 18 | | • | 全球AI组合表现 vs.QQQ | 7 • 全球大宗10组合个股表现 | 19 | | • | 全球大宗组合表现 vs.MSCIACWI | 8 • 全球大宗10组合个股成立至今表现 | 20 | | • | AI10+ 大宗10=具有内生对冲特征的投资组合 | 9 • 全球大宗组合风险特征 | 21 | | | AI组合细览 | • 行业层面影响因素 | 22 | | • | 全球AI精选组合个股表现 | 11 | | | • | 全球AI10组合个股表现 | 12 | | | • | 全球AI10组合个股成立至今表现 | 13 | | | • | 全球AI组合风险特征 ...

互联网行业月报 2 季度实物电商调整后同比增 6.4%（对比 1 季度+12%），4-6 月增速分别 为9.6%/13%/-1.4%，6 月转负主要因大促销售前置导致错期，合计来看5-6 月增速为 5.1%。分品类看，2 季度，餐饮消费（+5%）同比增速回落，因 去年同期线下需求回暖下基数较高；服饰（+2%）、日用品（+5.1%）和 家具（3.4%）在大促拉动下转正，通讯器材（+12%）维持双位数增长。 邮政局预测，6 月快递业务量同比增约 17%，持续受电商件低客单价趋势 带动。 2 季度行业增速因高基数回落。我们预计 2 季度：1）京东 GMV 同比低个 位数增长，略高于零售收入增速，带电品类收入因空调高基数影响下降， 日百品类中商超保持双位数增长。采购成本降低及空调补贴减少推动利润 释放。2）阿里淘天GMV中个位数增长，CMR增速仍慢于GMV，但呈现收 窄趋势。3）拼多多内地主站继续扩张市占，价格心智领先，内地业务盈 利提升（包括买菜亏损收窄）有望带利润持续超预期。4）快手供给侧及 经营场域拓展带动 GMV 增长趋势不变，但受大促竞争加剧等因素影响， GMV 增速或<20%，慢于此前预期。 投资启示：2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to $20.00 from the previous $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current price of $16.71 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q2 2024 by 1% to RMB 6.135 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%, primarily driven by new game releases exceeding expectations [2][3]. - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms" has been strong, leading to an upward revision of the annual game revenue forecast to RMB 54 billion for 2024 and RMB 67 billion for 2025, with expected growth rates of 34% and 23% respectively [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its advertising capabilities and expanding its e-commerce initiatives, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of RMB 21.899 billion in 2022, with projections of RMB 22.528 billion in 2023, RMB 26.585 billion in 2024, and RMB 30.207 billion in 2025, indicating a growth trajectory [4][10]. - The net loss is expected to narrow from RMB 6.692 billion in 2022 to RMB 3.425 billion in 2023, and further to RMB 478 million in 2024, with a projected return to profitability in 2025 [4][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.6% in 2022 to 30.8% in 2024, reflecting operational efficiencies and increased revenue from advertising [10][11]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mobile games is projected to grow from RMB 4.021 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.405 billion in 2024, while value-added services (VAS) and advertising revenues are also expected to see significant increases [7][10]. - The report highlights that advertising revenue is expected to grow by 26% year-on-year in Q2 2024, driven by improved ad distribution strategies and product enhancements [2][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned favorably within the entertainment content sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $5.37 billion and a 52-week price range between $8.94 and $19.07 [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for further growth in the gaming and advertising sectors, particularly with the upcoming launch of new games and enhancements in advertising technology [2][3].

通信设备：最终 6G 升级尚需时日，但智能化融合或为行业提供设备升级 的意愿。我们认为，与人工智能在消费者端侧的部署相比，人工智能算力 等部署在通信设备端侧似乎是一种兼顾效率和投入的解决方案。一方面消 费者端侧（AI phone、AI PC）的算力有限，且对硬件设备的发热等指标有 较高要求。另一方面，设备侧部署无需让用户需求通过云端，从而节约端 到端时延。诚然，设备端部署人工智能不能解决用户必须入网的问题。根 据历史经验，我们认为，名义上实现 6G 的升级或发生在 2028 年之后。考 虑到运营商的资本支出情况，我们认为，类似之前 5G 那样大规模的重新 组网建设甚至会更晚发生，但设备的智能化升级或是今后运营商的代际更 新间的主要投资方向。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 图表 1: 交银国际科技行业覆盖公司 交银国际 香港中环德辅道中 68 号万宜大厦 10 楼 总机: (852) 3766 1899 传真: (852) 2107 4662 分析员披露 本研究报告之作者﹐兹作以下声明﹕i)发表于本报告之观点准确地反映有关于他们个人对所提及的证券或其发行者之观点; ...

集成电路出口同比增 23.5%，较上月的 30%略有回落，同比拉动出口 增长 0.6%，边际贡献上较上月回落了 0.2%，但依然是本月出口的主要 贡献项。6 月集成电路出口量虽有所回落，但出口价格仍在上升，体 现了全球半导体产业高景气度。当前全球半导体仍然处在上升周期， 预计后续集成电路出口依然有望维持较高增速。 蔡瑞, CFA Carl.Cai@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1808 2024 年 7 月 12 日 资料来源: Wind, 交银国际 图表 8: 中国出口量价贡献情况 资料来源: Wind, 交银国际 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------------|----------------------|-----------|---------|--------------|--------------------|---------|---------| | 重点商品出口额 | 较上月变动 % | 同比增速 \n 2024-06 | \n ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **$40/155 HKD**, based on a 13x forward P/E multiple for JD Retail in 2024 [2][4] Core Views - The company's **Q2 2024 revenue** is expected to grow **1% YoY to RMB 291.4 billion**, below the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 306 billion, with a downward revision of **5 percentage points** in growth expectations [1] - **Adjusted net profit** is projected to increase **15% YoY to RMB 9.8 billion**, **13% higher** than previous expectations, driven by improved gross margins due to changes in product mix, lower procurement costs, and reduced air conditioner subsidies [1] - The **adjusted net profit margin** is expected to improve by **40 basis points YoY to 3.4%** [1] - The company's **active buyers and purchase frequency** showed double-digit growth in Q2, partially offset by a decline in average order value due to changes in product mix and low-price strategies [2] - The company plans to continue investing in low-price strategies, with **full-year revenue growth expectations unchanged**, but may increase investments in the second half of the year to drive revenue growth while ensuring ROI [2] - The **2024 revenue forecast** has been revised downward by **2%**, primarily due to the impact of electronics categories, while the **adjusted net profit** is expected to grow **10% YoY** [2] Operational Data - The company's **user experience NPS** continued to improve in Q2, supported by ecosystem development and low-price strategies [2] - During the **618 shopping festival**, daily active buyers also showed double-digit growth [2] - The **electronics category** is expected to decline by **5% YoY** in Q2, mainly due to a high base effect from air conditioner sales last year, weak PC industry demand, and growth in communication equipment [28] - The **daily necessities category** is expected to grow **9% YoY**, driven by strong performance in supermarkets, partially offset by pressure in home and furniture categories [28] - The **Q2 GMV** is expected to grow at a **low single-digit rate**, with positive growth during the 618 period, slightly higher than retail revenue growth [28] Valuation and Financials - The company's **2024E revenue** is projected at **RMB 1.139 trillion**, with a **5% YoY growth**, while **adjusted net profit** is expected to reach **RMB 38.6 billion**, a **10.4% YoY increase** [15] - The **2024E EPS** is forecasted at **RMB 24.56**, with a **P/E ratio of 8.5x** [15] - The **gross margin** is expected to improve to **15.3% in 2024E**, up from **14.7% in 2023**, driven by better product mix and cost control [15] - The **adjusted EBITDA margin** is projected to increase to **4.4% in 2024E**, up from **3.9% in 2023** [15] Industry and Market Context - The company's **valuation** is considered to be at the bottom, with potential for healthy profit growth, continued shareholder returns, and benefits from new advertising products like **Quanzhan Tui** [2] - The **electronics category**, which accounts for **10% of the electronics segment** and **30% of the home appliance segment**, is expected to see a double-digit decline in air conditioner sales in Q2 [28] - The company expects **Q3 revenue growth** to recover compared to Q2, as it returns to a normal comparable base [28]

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 7 月 12 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 11.50 港元 13.50↑ +17.4% 顺丰同城 (9699 HK) 同城即配/顺丰落地配双轮驱动;业绩持续改善趋势不变 业绩预览:我们预计 2024 上半年收入 71 亿元(人民币,下同),同比增 22%;净利润同比翻倍至 6700 万元,净利率 0.9%。预计全年收入同比增 22%至 151 亿元,毛利率提升 0.7 个百分点至 7.1%,得益于订单密度增加 和骑手人效等精细化管理带动单均成本下降及效率提升,但提升幅度有所 放缓(对比 2022/23 年提升 2.9 个/2.4 个百分点),预计全年净利润 1.43 亿元,净利率 0.9%,对比彭博一致预期收入 151 亿元/净利润 1.6 亿元。 分业务线来看,1)同城业务:持续深化与 KA 品牌布局合作,通过商圈产 品力打造获取中小商家增量。我们预计上半年收入同比增 25%,单量增速 快于收入,单均价格预计或有下降,主要受下沉市场客单价偏低及茶饮等 高增速品类配送距离较短影响。餐饮品类在去年到店消费旺盛的低基数下 有所恢复,非餐品类单量增速亦将维持高于 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Logistics is Neutral, with a target price adjusted from HKD 10.10 to HKD 9.80, reflecting a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 8.48 [2][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates a downward adjustment in revenue growth expectations for Q2 2024 to RMB 43.87 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, primarily due to weak demand in the large item sector and a focus on managing standard item pricing [1][3]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.2 billion for Q2 2024, representing a 45% year-on-year increase, with a profit margin of 2.7%, better than the previous forecast of 2.3% [1][10]. - The company is enhancing its warehousing capabilities in key industrial zones and deepening partnerships with brands like Xiaomi and Miniso, while also expanding its logistics services in regions like Hong Kong and Europe [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 8%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 4.4 billion, corresponding to a profit margin of 2.4% [1][3]. - The breakdown of revenue shows internal revenue at RMB 13.54 billion and external revenue at RMB 30.34 billion for Q2 2024, with external revenue accounting for 69% of total revenue [3][14]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 9.4% in Q2 2024, up from 7.7% in Q1 2024 [5][10]. Cost Management - The report highlights effective cost management strategies leading to a reduction in operational costs, with marketing expenses expected to rise by 18% year-on-year, while R&D expenses are projected to remain stable [6][8]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q2 2024 is forecasted at RMB 1.35 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 3.1% [9][10]. Future Outlook - The logistics sector is facing challenges due to overall industry demand, but JD Logistics is focusing on efficiency improvements and strategic partnerships to drive growth [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy growth trajectory despite the current market conditions, with a focus on enhancing service capabilities and expanding its logistics network [1][3].

呃大家周末好这个再次欢迎大家呃星期五参加我们交易国际的这个呃线上录影活动我们最近发布了这个呃量子技术的这个主题报告这个也是市场市场上最先发布量子技术报告的几家卖方机构之一哈那这个我们主要的这个观点是包括这个量子技术作为新智生产力的重要代表之一的或或在 计算通信和测量为下游的降本增效提高生产效率做出贡献那量子技术呢简单的讲就是通过类似于量子叠加态啊或者量子纠缠啊等不同系统的量子技术来提高计算安全通信和精确测量的这些这些这些应用具体的说呢就是量子计算的是利用亚原子粒子在物理 原理的亚原子类似的物理原理来取代当今计算机的经济管增加计算机单次运行的单次运算和存储的信息量来提高计算跟存储的效率我们认为目前量子计算机市场上处于比较早的探索阶段不少产品还在实验室阶段并且研发成本还是比较大的量子技术的第二大块是在量子通信它是利用量子信息单位不可克隆的性质 来做到信息的保密传输我们认为量子信量子通信进入大规模民用的商业化阶段上去时这个过程呢需要科研资本和政府企业的共同配合和努力量子第三块呢是在量子测量是对于物理世界进行间接测量的过程进而对物理对外界物理量的变化 导致的微观系统的量子态的变化进行调整和观测来做出测量的一个防御法吧 ...