交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 1 月 13 日 互联网行业 双旦拉动手游大盘恢复环比增长 估值概要 | s | | --- | 资料来源： FactSet( 未评级为一致预测 ) 、交银国际预测 ( 覆盖公司 ) 、每股盈利基于 Non-GAAP 基础 * 收盘价截至 2025 年 1 月 9 日 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 1/24 5/24 9/24 1/25 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 533 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年新能源汽车渗透率 47.6%，新一轮国补有望带动车市消费 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 宁德时代 | 300750 CH | 买入 | 310.10 | 247.33 | 15.143 | 17.050 | 16.3 | 14.5 | 3.88 | 3.29 | NA | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 255.80 | 23.261 | 28.629 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.08, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the warm winter has slightly impacted retail gas sales, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy. The core earnings for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [2][5]. - The company is expected to see a retail gas sales growth of 8.6% for the full year of 2024, despite a year-on-year decline in natural gas demand starting November 2024 [5]. - The LNG receiving station's utilization rate for 2024 has been adjusted down by 1 percentage point to 89% due to a projected 1% year-on-year decline in natural gas imports [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Kunlun Energy are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 188,386 million - 2025E: RMB 202,300 million - 2026E: RMB 215,037 million [4][14]. - Net profit estimates have been revised to: - 2024E: RMB 6,466 million - 2025E: RMB 7,216 million - 2026E: RMB 7,883 million, reflecting decreases of 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [4][14]. Operational Data - The forecasted gas sales volume is expected to grow as follows: - 2024E: 32.9 billion cubic meters - 2025E: 35.9 billion cubic meters - 2026E: 38.8 billion cubic meters, with growth rates of 8.6%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [6]. - The LNG processing volume is projected to increase to 3.27 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 52% [6]. Dividend Policy - The management has set a dividend payout target of 43% for 2024, increasing to 45% in 2025, with expected dividend yields of 4.4% and 5.1% respectively, which remains attractive [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 44.00, indicating a potential upside of 79.2% from the current price of HKD 24.55 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The company has successfully sold its stake in a non-core joint venture for USD 608 million, allowing it to focus on its core innovative R&D business. The transaction is expected to generate a pre-tax profit of USD 477 million, primarily reflected in the 2025 financial results [2][7]. - The company is advancing its proprietary ATTC platform, which is set to enter clinical validation soon. This platform aims to target cancer growth proteins effectively and overcome chemotherapy resistance, with the first candidate expected to enter clinical trials in the second half of 2025 [7]. - The report highlights significant milestones in the clinical pipeline, with key catalysts expected in 2025, including submissions for regulatory approvals and ongoing communication with regulatory bodies regarding additional drug applications [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a significant increase from USD 426 million in 2022 to an estimated USD 717 million in 2025, with a notable growth rate of 96.5% in 2023 before a decline in 2024 [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with a forecasted net income of USD 392 million, a substantial recovery from a loss of USD 361 million in 2022 [3][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve significantly, reaching USD 0.46 in 2025, compared to a loss of USD 0.43 in 2022 [3][15]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately USD 4.916 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 44.00 for 2025 [9]. - The model incorporates a perpetual growth rate of 3% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.9% [9]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 8.87%, with a 52-week high of HKD 34.70 and a low of HKD 19.16 [6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 10.65 million shares, indicating active market participation [6].

| 钧达 | 爱旭 | | --- | --- | | 股份 | 用资 (关) | | 002865 CH | 600732 CH | 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 交银国际研究 行业剖析 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 行业评级 领先 2025 年 1 月 7 日 光伏电池片行业 产能逐步出清下盈利拐点已现，龙头优势明显反转可期 | 估值概要 | | --- | | 公司名称 | | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | -----每股盈利----- | | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | FY24E | | | FY25E FY24E FY25 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huahong Semiconductor with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 30, indicating a potential upside of 50.2% [6][22]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is in a recovery phase, with Huahong Semiconductor expected to benefit from visible supply-side capacity expansion and a recovering demand environment, particularly in consumer electronics and AI-related sectors [6][22]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth starting in 2025, with significant capital expenditures planned to support production capacity increases [6][22]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Huahong Semiconductor are as follows: USD 2,000 million in 2024, USD 2,504 million in 2025, and USD 2,850 million in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of -12.5%, +25.2%, and +13.8% respectively [5][11]. - Net profit is expected to decline to USD 112 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to USD 199 million in 2025 and USD 233 million in 2026 [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be USD 0.07 in 2024, USD 0.12 in 2025, and USD 0.14 in 2026 [5][11]. Capacity and Capital Expenditure - Huahong Semiconductor's capacity is expected to increase significantly, with the second 12-inch production line in Wuxi projected to start contributing revenue in Q1 2025, aiming for a monthly output of 20,000 wafers by the end of 2025 [6][9]. - Capital expenditures are anticipated to peak at approximately USD 20 billion annually from 2024 to 2027, primarily focused on equipment procurement for the new production line [9][10]. Market Position and Valuation - The target price of HKD 30 corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0x for 2025, reflecting a fair valuation based on the company's recovery trajectory and industry conditions [22][23]. - Historical average PB for Huahong Semiconductor has been 1.18x, indicating that the current valuation presents an opportunity for upside as the market recovers [23][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.00, implying a potential upside of 42.0% [1][4] Core Views - JD Logistics' Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 8.6% YoY to RMB 51.25 billion, driven by increased market share capture and prior investments in shipping and air routes [2][7] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is forecasted to increase by 10% YoY to RMB 2.0 billion, surpassing market expectations of RMB 1.7 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.9% [7] - Full-year 2024 revenue is projected to grow by 9% YoY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.2%, in line with company guidance of 3-4% [2][7] - The company's prior investments are expected to continue driving revenue growth in 2025, with further efficiency improvements and the ongoing integration of Taobao contributing to incremental gains [2] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profitability - 2024E revenue is revised upward by 0.6% to RMB 181.99 billion, with 2025E and 2026E revenues forecasted at RMB 194.62 billion and RMB 208.22 billion, respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is revised downward by 3.1% to RMB 7.67 billion, with 2025E and 2026E adjusted net profits projected at RMB 7.91 billion and RMB 8.48 billion, respectively [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 10.6%, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.2% for 2024E and 4.1% for both 2025E and 2026E [3][7] Segment Performance - External customer revenue is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2024E to RMB 95.28 billion, driven by strong performance in other external customer segments [3] - External integrated supply chain revenue is forecasted to decline by 1.1% in 2024E to RMB 31.99 billion, reflecting a slight slowdown in this segment [3] Key Financial Metrics - Non-GAAP adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.212, increasing to RMB 1.241 in 2025E and RMB 1.320 in 2026E [17] - ROE is expected to improve significantly, reaching 29.8% in 2024E, 28.1% in 2025E, and 25.6% in 2026E, reflecting strong profitability and operational efficiency [18] Industry and Peer Comparison - JD Logistics is part of the logistics sector, with peers including SF Express (9699 HK) and Dada Group (DADA US), both of which also hold Buy ratings [12] - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from continued e-commerce growth and supply chain optimization, with JD Logistics well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [2][12]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the US economy will maintain steady growth in 2025, but the support from fiscal policy may be less than before, and interest rates are transitioning from restrictive to neutral [2][4] - The tightening of immigration policies may create labor shortages in specific industries, potentially increasing wage growth, but the overall impact is expected to be limited due to a cooling job market [4][9] - The report suggests that the combination of Trump's core policies may lead to a tighter overall policy environment in 2025, which could weaken economic growth momentum and negatively affect inflation [9][11] Group 2 - The report expects the 10-year US Treasury yield to stabilize between 3.5% and 4.0% in 2025, benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [15][37] - The Chinese stock market has largely absorbed pessimistic expectations, with current valuations reflecting historical averages and providing a strong margin of safety against external shocks [18][19] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is becoming more sensitive to domestic demand changes, with a significant focus on internal factors improving [22][24] Group 3 - The public utility sector is seen as having significant allocation value during the current economic stabilization phase, benefiting from government-supported pricing mechanisms and stable market demand [28] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the US stock market in 2025, supported by factors such as improving corporate confidence and potential increases in consumer spending [30][58] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may benefit from Trump's policies, such as energy and public utilities, while also considering small-cap stocks and cyclical sectors for potential excess returns [59][61] Group 4 - The report indicates that the gold market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations but has a long-term upward trend due to rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical uncertainties [70][71] - The report anticipates that the dollar index will fluctuate between 100-105 in 2025, with potential short-term declines followed by a recovery in the latter half of the year [78][79] - The report emphasizes that the US economy's resilience and inflation persistence may lead to a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting market liquidity and risk appetite [49][111]

Company Performance and Strategy - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with retail sales slightly outperforming wholesale, though total sales declined by mid-single digits year-over-year [1] - The company continued to close inefficient and loss-making stores, reducing total store count by high single digits YoY and gross sales area by 4.4% YoY as of November 2024 [1] - Average store size increased YoY, aligning with the company's goal to enhance store image and efficiency [1] - The company aims to maintain stable store numbers in the next year, with net store closures in H2 2024 expected to be no less than in H1 2024 [1] Investment Ratings and Targets - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to the company [8] - The target price is set at HKD 3.06, representing a potential upside of 4.7% from the current price of HKD 2.92 [16] - The valuation is based on 11x FY2025-26 P/E, reflecting near-term operational pressures but long-term growth potential in the sports sector [17] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for FY2024 is projected at RMB 28.93 billion, a 6.9% YoY increase, but FY2025 revenue is expected to decline by 8.1% to RMB 26.58 billion [19] - Net profit for FY2024 is forecasted at RMB 2.21 billion, up 20.4% YoY, but FY2025 net profit is expected to drop by 33.4% to RMB 1.47 billion [19] - Gross margin remains stable at around 41.7%-42.1% from FY2023 to FY2027, while EBIT margin is projected to decline to 7.1% in FY2025 before recovering to 8.0% in FY2027 [21] - ROE is expected to decrease from 22.5% in FY2024 to 15.7% in FY2025, reflecting operational challenges [21] Operational Highlights - Retail performance in Q3 2024 followed the trend of H1 2024, with professional sports brands showing faster growth while mass leisure brands remained weak [17] - Online channels contributed double-digit growth in Q3 2024, driven by promotional events, offsetting pressure from offline channels due to reduced foot traffic [17] - Inventory management remains a key focus, with 70-80% of inventory being new products as of November 2024, aligning with the company's de-stocking targets [17] Industry and Market Context - The sports sector is seen as having significant growth potential, despite near-term challenges in offline channels [17] - The company's partnership with Nike is highlighted as a key strength, with Nike's new CEO emphasizing efficient retail collaboration and professional sports categories like outdoor and running [17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on NVIDIA with a **Buy** rating and a target price of **$170**, implying a **31.9%** potential upside from the current price of **$128.91** [1][2][4][15] Core Thesis - NVIDIA is expected to maintain its dominant position in the AI accelerator chip market, with an estimated **87% market share by 2025** and over **80% market share through at least 2027** [1][11] - The report highlights NVIDIA's **CUDA-based solutions** as a key competitive advantage, offering flexibility and scalability compared to ASIC alternatives [1][49] - Despite the rise of ASIC solutions, NVIDIA's market leadership is expected to remain intact, with ASIC adoption likely to be gradual and more impactful on competitors like AMD rather than NVIDIA [1][8][9][21] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA is projected to capture **66% of global CoWoS capacity in 2025**, enabling the production of over **5.8 million chips**, with **Blackwell** chips expected to surpass **Hopper** in revenue by **CY2Q25** [13][32][55] - The report estimates that NVIDIA's **data center revenue** will reach **$173.4 billion in 2025**, driven by strong demand from CSPs and other customers [13][32] - ASIC solutions, while gaining traction, are expected to have a limited impact on NVIDIA's market share, with ASIC revenue for competitors like Broadcom projected to be **$160-240 billion by 2027**, significantly lower than NVIDIA's expected revenue [11][23] Financial Projections - Revenue for **CY2024** and **CY2025** is forecasted at **$129.3 billion** and **$190.9 billion**, respectively, with **Non-GAAP EPS** of **$2.95** and **$4.32** [2][13][52] - Gross margins are expected to remain strong, with **CY2024** and **CY2025** margins projected at **75.6%** and **73.6%**, respectively [2][13][52] - The report predicts **Blackwell** will contribute **$35 billion** in revenue in **CY4Q24**, with data center demand remaining robust throughout **CY2025** [55][56] Valuation and Catalysts - NVIDIA's **CY2025E P/E** of **39.3x** is slightly above its historical average and industry peers, reflecting its strong competitive position and growth prospects [2][18] - Key catalysts for NVIDIA's stock include **increased visibility into CY2026 revenue**, the rise of **C-end GPU business** (e.g., supercomputing), and the expansion of **generative AI applications** [2][13][58] - The report notes that NVIDIA's valuation is in line with peers like Broadcom and AMD, with a **CY2025E P/E** of **30.3x**, positioning it at the **industry median** [12][51] Industry Trends - The report discusses the **ASIC vs. GPU debate**, noting that ASIC adoption is driven by **slowing algorithm evolution** and increasing **inference workloads**, but NVIDIA's CUDA-based solutions are expected to maintain flexibility and scalability [1][20][49] - CSPs are increasingly adopting ASIC solutions to **balance NVIDIA's pricing power** and ensure **supply chain security**, but this trend is expected to have a greater impact on competitors like AMD rather than NVIDIA [46][21] - The **AI accelerator chip market** is projected to grow significantly, with NVIDIA maintaining a dominant position, while ASIC solutions are expected to capture a smaller share of the market [11][23][50]