交银国际研究 公司更新 科技 2024 年 7 月 31 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 138.44 美元 200.00 +44.5% 超微半导体 (AMD US) AI 加速芯片持续加速；重申买入 2Q24 业绩和 3Q24 指引双双超市场预期：AMD 公布 2Q24 业绩，2Q24 单 季收入 58.4 亿美元（同比上涨 9%，环比上涨 7%），符合我们的预测，略 高于 Visible Alpha（VA）一致预期 57.4 亿美元。经营利润率 22%，符合我 们的预测，略高于 VA 一致预期 21.9%。调整后 EPS 0.69 美元，基本符合我 们的预测，略高于VA 一致预期0.68 美元。公司指引3Q24E 单季收入64-70 亿美元，中位数 67 亿美元符合我们的预测，略高于 VA 一致预期 66 亿美 元。 数据中心和客户端业务驱动业绩上升：数据中心业务表现突出，收入同比 上涨 115%至 28 亿美元。如我们在首次覆盖报告中提到的，这主要是因为 数据中心 GPU 加速芯片 MI300X 放量（管理层称对公司收入贡献达到 10 亿 美元）和 EYPC CPU 等传统业务复苏及市场份额上升所驱 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 54.75 港元 80.00↓ +46.1% 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) 2024 财年 4 季度利润率不及预期，教学点扩张稳定推进 2024 财年 4 季度业绩：收入 11 亿美元，基本符合预期，同比增 32%，主 要受教育新业务增长拉动。调整后运营利润 3600 万美元，同比降 54%， 不及我们预期的6900 万美元，对应调整后运营利润率3.2%，同比降5.9 个 百分点，主要因加速教学点拓展、文旅业务投入及提升员工薪酬奖励带来 短期影响。调整后归母净利润 3700 万美元，低于我们/彭博一致预期的 7700 万美元/7200 万美元，对应调整后净利率 3.2%，同比降 4 个百分点。 核心教育业务概览：教学点加速扩张，教育新业务维持高速增长。1）传 统 业 务 ： 留 学 备 考 / 出 国 咨 询 / 成 人 及 大 学 生 / 高 中 收 入 同 比 增 17.7%/17.3%/16.4%/25%，贡献收入约55%。2）新业务：收入同比增50%， 收入贡献约 20%，较去年同期提升 2 个百分点，非学科培训季度招生同比 增 39%至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, Oriental Selection (1797 HK), with a target price of 13.40, indicating a potential upside of 41.1% from the current price of 9.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on a dual-driven strategy of traffic and products, with plans to enhance brand building and strengthen cooperation with Douyin [2][3]. - The company will diversify its product lines by developing both self-operated products and external products, aiming to expand its self-operated product system and build its own app platform [2]. - The company plans to establish offline service/experience stores based on its 800+ offline teaching points to attract foot traffic and increase brand exposure [3]. - The sale of Huixing will negatively impact the company's short-term GMV and profits, but it is expected that operations will stabilize once public sentiment improves [3]. Summary by Sections Company Strategy - The company will reallocate resources to strengthen brand building and continue to output quality content in cooperation with Douyin [2]. - Future strategic planning includes expanding self-operated and external product lines, promoting high-quality products in various provinces, and developing unique local products [2]. Marketing and Promotion - The company will engage in diverse activities that combine content and cultural products to enhance consumer interest, including collaborations with international development agencies and live interviews with authors [3]. - A matrix of accounts targeting niche audiences will be established to further enhance brand influence and traffic acquisition [3]. Financial Outlook - The report notes that the company's stock price dropped by 23% on July 26, and after excluding the profit contribution from Huixing, the corresponding P/E ratio for FY2025 is projected at 18 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to King’s Ray Biotech (1548 HK) with a target price of 27.75 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 122.4% [5]. Core Insights - King’s Ray and its subsidiary Legend Biotech reported a narrower loss for 1H24, which was below expectations. King’s Ray's revenue is projected to grow between 29.1% to 50.6%, reaching approximately 505 to 590 million USD, while the net loss (non-attributable) is expected to narrow to 213 to 226 million USD compared to 246 million USD in 1H23. The adjusted net loss, excluding non-recurring items, is anticipated to significantly decrease to 64.3 to 83.5 million USD from 162 million USD in 1H23, also better than expectations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - King’s Ray's revenue growth is projected at 29.1% to 50.6%, reaching 505 to 590 million USD. The net loss is expected to narrow to 213 to 226 million USD, down from 246 million USD in 1H23. The adjusted net loss is forecasted to decrease to 64.3 to 83.5 million USD from 162 million USD in 1H23 [1]. - Legend Biotech is expected to report a net loss of 75 to 87 million USD, with an adjusted net loss of 95 to 110 million USD, significantly reduced from a net loss of 311 million USD in 1H23 [1]. Business Segments - The non-cell therapy business of King’s Ray is expected to generate revenue of approximately 260 to 350 million USD in 1H24, aligning with market expectations. The life sciences services segment is anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 15-20% for the full year [2]. - R&D expenses are projected to increase by 8-25% to 225 to 260 million USD, primarily for ongoing development activities related to ciltacel and solid tumor projects [1]. Future Outlook - The adjusted net loss for King’s Ray in 2H24 is expected to further narrow year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a target of achieving overall breakeven by 2025 [2].

交银国际研究 消息快报 消费行业 发改委联合财政部支持家电以旧换新，力度相比 2009 年增强 事件：7 月 25 日，国家发展改革委和财政部印发《关于加力支持大规模设 备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》的通知，统筹安排总计约 3000 亿 元超长期特别国债资金，用于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换 新。 家电以旧换新政策：对个人消费者购买 2 级及以上能效或水效标准的冰 箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机等 8 类家 电产品给予以旧换新补贴。补贴标准为产品销售价格的 15%，对购买 1 级 及以上能效或水效标准的产品，额外再给予产品销售价格 5%的补贴。每 位消费者每类产品可补贴 1 件，每件补贴不超过 2000 元。 以旧换新资金来源：国家发展改革委牵头，直接向地方安排 1500 亿元左 右超长期特别国债资金，用于落实第（三）、（四）、（五）、（七）、 （八）、（九）条所列支持政策。家电属于第九条。支持资金按照总体 9:1 的原则实行央地共担，东部、中部、西部地区中央承担比例分别为 85%、90%、95%。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日未用完的中央下达资金额度收 回中央。 ...

Company Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to **Oriental Selection (1797 HK)** [3] Core Viewpoints - Oriental Selection sold its subsidiary **Yu Hui Tong Xing** to Dong Yuhui, which is expected to impact the company's 2025 fiscal year profit by **20%+** [1] - The sale of Yu Hui Tong Xing is expected to reduce Oriental Selection's 2025 fiscal year GMV, revenue, and profit by **34%**, **9%**, and **20%+** respectively [1] - The sale is expected to have a short-term financial impact but may reduce public opinion risks, allowing management to focus on self-operated strategies and multi-platform development for long-term stability [1] Financial Impact of Yu Hui Tong Xing Sale - Yu Hui Tong Xing generated a net profit of **140 million RMB** in the first half of 2024 (from December 22, 2023, to June 30, 2024) [1] - The GMV of Yu Hui Tong Xing from January to June 2024 was approximately **3.5 billion RMB**, with a commission rate of **13%**, contributing **410 million RMB** in revenue and a profit margin of **33%** [1] - The sale price of Yu Hui Tong Xing was **76.59 million RMB**, equal to its net asset value, resulting in no gain or loss for Oriental Selection [1] Strategic Adjustments - Oriental Selection plans to reallocate resources to strengthen its own brand, expand self-operated products, and develop its live e-commerce business [1] - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to **500 million RMB** within the next year [1] Industry Coverage - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, including **Baidu (BIDU US)**, **iQiyi (IQ US)**, **Kuaishou (1024 HK)**, **Bilibili (BILI US)**, **NetEase Cloud Music (9899 HK)**, **Tencent Music (TME US)**, **Pinduoduo (PDD US)**, **JD.com (JD US)**, **Alibaba (BABA US)**, **New Oriental Education (9901 HK)**, **Tencent (700 HK)**, and **Meituan (3690 HK)** [3] - Most companies in the internet and education sectors are rated as **Buy**, with potential upside ranging from **15.5%** to **88.0%** [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 2.02, indicating a potential downside of 5.6% from the current price of HKD 2.14 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a 7.9% year-on-year decline in profit for the first half of the year, with a projected profit of RMB 1.64 billion. This decline is attributed to a 4% decrease in wind power generation due to lower wind speeds, although solar power generation increased by 58% due to new installations [1][2]. - The report anticipates a slight reduction in electricity generation forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with expected growth rates of 1.3% and 6.2%, respectively. This adjustment reflects the need for the company to accelerate new installations to maintain growth amid declining utilization rates of existing projects [2][7]. - The company's net debt ratio is lower than its peers, providing room for potential increases in installations or dividends. The expected dividend payout ratio of 23% is below the industry average of 30-50%, suggesting potential for higher dividends if cash flow remains stable [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 12.798 billion, a slight decrease from 2023. Net profit is expected to decline by 2.3% to RMB 2.702 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at RMB 0.30 [3][10]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.6 for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 3.4% [3][10]. - The company’s total installed capacity is expected to remain stable, with wind power capacity at 13,831 MW and solar power capacity at 3,388 MW for 2024 [7][10].

特朗普交易+降息交易交织下的双重博弈 美国大选在过去一个月跌宕起伏。从最新的民调来看，总统候选人支持率亦表 现出跌宕起伏的态势，目前共和党总统候选人特朗普保持明显领先优势，实时 民调仍明显领先于民主党潜在候选人哈里斯。 特朗普 2.0 如何演绎？综合 2024 美国共和党纲领，以及近期特朗普演讲和接受 采访释放出来的政策信号，特朗普 2.0 主张主要集中在"美国优先"、削减法 规、减税、贸易再平衡以及实现低成本能源上。 中期来看，特朗普 2.0 潜在增加了降息路径的不确定性。降息周期的起点 适逢美国大选的终点，美国新总统上任伊始，或将是新政策的集中推出时 期。如若特朗普当选，其扩张性的财政政策可能将再度推高通胀，使得美 联储行将半路的降息面临两难。 特朗普 2.0 会带来什么经济影响？特朗普旨在通过减税、提振制造业、解除传 统能源开采限制。虽然特朗普主观希望低利率支持企业发展、弱美元改善贸易 赤字，但实际效果来看，特朗普扩张性财政政策叠加宽货币，在综合影响下最 可能出现高增长、高通胀，进而可能推升利率中枢并带动美元偏强。 资产如何表现？映射在资产配置层面，特朗普 2.0+降息交易，整体上或使大类 资产短、中期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 51.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of HKD 34.25 [1][3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face pressure on performance in the first half of 2024, but its valuation remains attractive. The new business value is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, primarily driven by an increase in the new business value rate [1][2]. - The report highlights a decline in new individual insurance premiums by 5.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a slight improvement in the new business value rate to 23.1% in the second quarter [1][2]. - The company plans to issue USD 3.5 billion in 5-year convertible bonds, which will provide investors with the option to convert to shares, thereby reducing financing costs and having a limited dilution effect [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The expected comprehensive cost ratio for the property and casualty insurance segment is 99.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points due to a slowdown in auto insurance growth and natural disaster impacts [2][6]. - The report anticipates a 3% year-on-year decline in operating profit attributable to the parent company (OPAT) for the first half of 2024, with a more significant decline of 18% in the property insurance segment [2][6]. - The net profit for the first half of 2024 is expected to decrease by 2% year-on-year, with a potential recovery in profit growth in the second half of the year [2][6]. Business Segment Insights - The life and health insurance segment is projected to maintain stable performance, while the property insurance segment is expected to see a significant decline in profits due to concentrated underwriting losses from credit guarantee insurance [2][6]. - The new business value for the life insurance segment is expected to reach RMB 96 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, with the new business value rate improving to 22.9% [1][6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company currently has a dividend yield exceeding 7%, and the report suggests a high certainty of a year-on-year recovery in operating profit for 2024 [3][6]. - The report provides updated forecasts for key financial metrics, including a projected net profit of RMB 94.825 billion for 2024, which is a 3.5% decrease from previous estimates [7][13].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 新征程，新机遇——三中全会聚焦系列： 二十届三中全会《决定》政策学习与解读 短期来看，三中全会对于短期经济目标的兼顾"强调坚定不移实现全年经济社 会发展目标"，这很可能意味着下半年各项政策将更偏积极，这有助于提振市 场表现。 2024 年 7 月 23 日 我们在先前公报的基础上，进一步学习了此次三中全会《决定》的全文内容， 和 7月18 日发布的《公报》相比，《决定》中提到的要求与规划更加详实和具 体，我们就此丰富了对于各项改革细项的理解。整体而言，此次会议覆盖面共 15 个部分，分为 60 条，提出了超过 300 多项具体的改革举措，是中国未来 10 年的改革路线图。从总书记对《决定》的说明来看，其提到"重点部署未来五 年的重大改革举措"，涉及 5 个"注重"： 宏观策略 长期来看，这一方面这有助于提升经济增长的整体质量，另一方面也将降低资 本市场的长期风险溢价，有助于资本市场的长期健康成长。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com ...