Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Legend Biotech (LEGN US) with a target price of $76, indicating a potential upside of 119.2% from the current price of $34.67 [2][3]. Core Insights - Legend Biotech's CARVYKTI® sales in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 110% to $334 million, slightly above the forecast of $322 million. The sales also showed a 17% quarter-over-quarter growth, driven by capacity expansion and market penetration in the 2L+ treatment segment [1]. - The company has treated a total of 5,000 patients with CARVYKTI® across commercial sales and clinical studies, showcasing effective commercialization efforts [1]. - For the full year of 2024, CARVYKTI® sales reached $960 million, and the report anticipates sales to double to $1.9 billion in 2025 due to new capacity coming online and the product's approval in mainland China and more European countries [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q4 2024 CARVYKTI® sales were $334 million, a 110% increase year-over-year and a 17% increase quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The sales growth in Q4 2024 improved from 88% in Q3 2024, indicating strong market demand and effective sales strategies [1]. Future Projections - The report projects that CARVYKTI® sales will double to $1.9 billion in 2025, supported by new production capacities and market expansions [1]. - The anticipated approval of CARVYKTI® in China and further commercialization in Europe are key drivers for this growth [1]. Market Position - The report highlights that Legend Biotech's current stock price is undervalued, with market concerns over competitive products being deemed excessive [1]. - The company is positioned as a key recommendation in the pharmaceutical sector, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory and market strategy [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][13]. Core Views - The company exhibits strong profitability, with new technologies and international expansion supporting continued growth [2]. - The target price has been raised to RMB 314.11, reflecting a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price of RMB 258.00 [1][6][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 361 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, primarily due to falling raw material prices [6][15]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be between RMB 49 billion and RMB 53 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.1% to 20.1% [6][15]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 14.1% for 2024, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][15]. - The company’s market share in the domestic power battery installation market is projected to rise to 45.1% in 2024, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous year [6][15]. - The company plans to establish 1,000 battery swap stations by 2025, with a long-term goal of 30,000 to 40,000 stations [6][15]. Financial Data Overview - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 328,594 - 2023: 400,917 - 2024E: 361,000 - 2025E: 441,723 - 2026E: 477,305 [3][15]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 30,729 - 2023: 44,121 - 2024E: 50,004 - 2025E: 61,857 - 2026E: 67,358 [3][15]. - Earnings per Share (in RMB): - 2022: 7.18 - 2023: 11.79 - 2024E: 13.36 - 2025E: 16.53 - 2026E: 18.00 [3][15]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through the introduction of new products and technologies in various sectors, including commercial vehicles and energy storage [6][15]. - International production capacity is being established, with the German factory expected to break even in 2024 and the Hungarian factory set to commence production in 2025 [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Bilibili (BILI US), with a target price adjusted to $24.00, reflecting a potential upside of 40.8% from the current price of $17.05 [1][2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the gaming revenue is in line with expectations and expresses optimism about the potential for profit release. The company has achieved profitability, leading to a switch to PEG valuation based on comparable entertainment and gaming companies [1][6]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced by 3% to RMB 1.87 billion, while the revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be 19% for advertising and 9% for gaming [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of revenue structure optimization and ongoing cost control to enhance profitability over the long term [6][9]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are RMB 26,716 million, RMB 29,688 million, and RMB 31,936 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% for adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027 [5][14]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 36% for Q4 2024, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach RMB 4 billion [6][9]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately $5.55 billion, with a 52-week high of $29.66 and a low of $8.94 [4][12]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for Q4 2024E includes mobile games at RMB 1,768 million, value-added services (VAS) at RMB 2,989 million, and advertising revenue at RMB 2,389 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% for advertising [9][14]. - The report notes that the gaming segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected increase in revenue from games in 2025 [6][9]. Market Position - Bilibili is positioned favorably within the entertainment content sector, with a competitive edge in gaming and advertising, supported by product optimization and marketing strategies [1][6][12]. - The report suggests that the stock price has limited downside potential, reinforcing the "Buy" rating based on the company's growth prospects and market dynamics [1][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][8]. Core Views - The report indicates that while short-term profit margins are expected to fluctuate due to pricing strategy changes, the revenue growth outlook remains positive. The company is projected to achieve revenue growth slightly better than previously expected in the second half of 2024, driven by effective pricing strategies that boost order volume and market share. However, the adjustments in pricing are anticipated to lead to a slight decline in profit margins in the short term [2][7]. - The target price has been revised down from HKD 24 to HKD 18, reflecting a 16.9% potential upside from the current price of HKD 15.40, based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][8]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with a 17% and 32% downward revision in adjusted net profit for those years, respectively. The new revenue forecasts are RMB 14,763 million for 2024 and RMB 16,793 million for 2025, reflecting a 0.3% increase from previous estimates [6][11]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 611 million, with a net profit margin of 4.1%, and for 2025, it is projected to be RMB 783 million, with a net profit margin of 4.7% [6][11]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 14,763 million in 2024, with a gross profit of RMB 3,717 million, resulting in a gross margin of 25.2%. For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to RMB 16,793 million, with a gross profit of RMB 4,296 million and a gross margin of 25.6% [6][11]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 1,082 million, with an EBITDA margin of 6.4%, while for 2025, it is expected to reach RMB 1,558 million, with an EBITDA margin of 8.3% [6][11]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 14.44%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.70 and a low of HKD 10.46. The average daily trading volume is 21.63 million shares [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 133.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of RMB 106.65 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a record high revenue of RMB 256.08 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%. The net profit is projected to be between RMB 31.55 billion and RMB 33.55 billion, with a median estimate of RMB 32.55 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 486% [5]. - The company continues to benefit from the high-end product trend in the CIS (Camera Image Sensor) market, particularly in high-end smartphones and automotive applications, which is expected to drive revenue and margin growth [5]. - The company is actively optimizing its product and supply chain structure, contributing to a gradual recovery in gross margin [5]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to RMB 256.2 billion from RMB 262.1 billion, and the basic earnings per share (EPS) has been slightly lowered to RMB 2.69 from RMB 2.82 [1][4]. - For 2025, the revenue forecast is adjusted to RMB 300.9 billion, with a maintained gross margin prediction of 32.2% and a slight decrease in EPS to RMB 3.65 from RMB 3.70 [1][4]. - The report outlines a consistent growth trajectory in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of RMB 35.22 billion by 2026 [9][10]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 2.15% and has a market capitalization of approximately RMB 127.92 billion [3]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are RMB 117.92 and RMB 79.22, respectively, indicating a significant range of price movement over the past year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for Dada Group (DADA US) with a target price of $1.40, indicating a potential upside of 5.3% from the current price of $1.33 [2][11]. Core Insights - The instant delivery industry is benefiting Dada's express delivery growth, with adjustments in the second delivery business continuing. The revenue forecast for Q4 2024 is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year, with Dada Express revenue adjusted up by 5% due to category expansion, refined operations, and improved fulfillment quality [2][6]. - The report anticipates a net loss of RMB 3.1 billion for 2024, corresponding to a loss rate of 13%. The strategy for JD's second delivery business remains focused on enhancing user perception and increasing order volume and repurchase rates, with revenue growth expected to take time [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 is RMB 9.621 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline, while the adjusted net loss is projected at RMB 7.1 billion, with a loss rate of 7.4% [6][15]. - For 2025, the revenue is expected to increase to RMB 10.227 billion, representing a 6% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 4.3 billion and a loss rate of 4.2% [6][15]. Revenue Breakdown - Dada Express revenue is projected to reach RMB 5.768 billion in 2024, up 1.4% from previous estimates, while JD's second delivery revenue is expected to decline to RMB 3.853 billion, down 2% from prior forecasts [5][6]. - The report outlines that Dada Express revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.658 billion, showing a 39% year-on-year increase, while JD's second delivery revenue is forecasted to be RMB 732 million, down 53% year-on-year [7][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 9.92%, with a 52-week high of $2.56 and a low of $1.04, indicating volatility in its market performance [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of $102.00, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current price of $82.92 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Baidu's core advertising revenue is expected to improve gradually starting from Q1 2025, with a potential year-on-year growth in the second half of 2025 due to the commercialization of AI search [2][6]. - The report anticipates that the Robotaxi RT6 model will significantly improve cost efficiency and accelerate the commercialization of autonomous driving applications [2]. - The financial forecasts for Baidu show a slight decrease in revenue growth rates for 2024 and 2025, with total revenue expected to be RMB 132.517 billion in 2024 and RMB 133.733 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% and 0.8% respectively [3][16]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 132,517 million - 2025E: RMB 133,733 million - 2026E: RMB 140,750 million - The core business revenue is expected to be RMB 104,098 million in 2024, RMB 105,599 million in 2025, and RMB 110,360 million in 2026 [3][7]. - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 25,946 million in 2024, RMB 25,193 million in 2025, and RMB 27,244 million in 2026, with corresponding operating profit margins of 19.6%, 18.8%, and 19.4% respectively [3][8][16]. Stock Performance - Baidu's stock has shown a year-to-date change of -1.65% and has a market capitalization of approximately $23.21 billion [6][14]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are $115.13 and $77.43 respectively, indicating a significant range of price movement over the past year [6][14]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the potential for revenue recovery driven by AI search commercialization and the expansion of autonomous driving services, while also noting the challenges in the advertising sector due to cautious spending in certain industries [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price raised from $56 to $60, indicating a potential upside of 53.8% [1][6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the trade-in policy, which is expected to continue benefiting JD's sales in the electronics category. Revenue and profit forecasts for Q4 2024 have been raised by 3% and 12%, respectively. The company is projected to maintain healthy profit growth in 2025, supported by a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [1][6][7]. - The anticipated total revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to reach RMB 334 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, which is 3% higher than previous estimates and 2% above Bloomberg consensus [6][7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is projected at RMB 9.5 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, also revised up by 12% from earlier forecasts [6][7]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Total revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted upward by 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively, while net profit estimates have been increased by 2.3% and 2.8% for the same years [5][6]. - The report anticipates that JD's retail revenue will outperform social retail growth in 2025, with continued healthy profit growth and shareholder returns [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, product sales revenue is expected to be RMB 917.2 billion, with a growth rate of 5.6%. The electronics category is projected to generate RMB 556.2 billion, reflecting a 10%+ year-on-year increase [5][6][7]. - The report also details revenue contributions from various segments, including service revenue and logistics, indicating a diversified income stream [5][6][7]. Market Performance - JD's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 12.49%, with a 52-week high of $47.08 and a low of $21.44, reflecting strong market interest [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 46.7% from the current price of HKD 9.20 [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The company has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting revenue and profit growth of no less than 25% and 100% respectively for 2024. The second half of 2024 is projected to see revenue growth of at least 30% year-on-year [2][7]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been revised upward by 4%, driven by better-than-expected growth in key account (KA) business and last-mile delivery services. The report anticipates a decrease in unit prices due to improved delivery efficiency and changes in business structure [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 132 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 160%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 0.8% [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are RMB 15,498 million, RMB 19,350 million, and RMB 23,490 million respectively, with growth rates of 25.1%, 24.8%, and 21.4% [6][15]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 132 million, with a net profit margin of 0.8%. For 2025E, the adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 262 million, with a margin of 1.4% [6][15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the gross profit for 2024E, estimated at RMB 1,022 million, with a gross margin of 6.6% [6][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of -0.97%, with a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.30. The market capitalization is approximately HKD 6,695.48 million [5][15]. - The report indicates that the company's stock performance is expected to align positively with the anticipated growth in the instant delivery industry, driven by strong demand [2][7].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 1 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 83.90 | 人民币 | 97.00↓ | +15.6% | | | 卓胜微 (300782 CH) | | | | | | | 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 1/24 5/24 9/24 1/25 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 300782 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 120.10 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 59.10 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 44,847.07 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 12.54 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (6.47) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 83.70 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 芯卓产线上线或影响公司利润水平 王大卫, PhD, CFA Da ...