Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of USD 111.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.0% from the current price of USD 86.06 [1][5]. Core Insights - Alibaba's recent sale of its 100% stake in Intime to a consortium led by Youngor Group is seen as a strategic move to focus on its core businesses, which is expected to enhance the company's performance recovery opportunities [1][2]. - The sale is projected to result in a one-time accounting loss of approximately RMB 9.3 billion (around USD 1.3 billion), but it is noted that this will not significantly impact Alibaba's overall revenue, as the contribution from Intime is less than 1% of total revenue [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Alibaba's focus on its e-commerce platforms and cloud services, which are expected to drive future growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023, Alibaba reported total revenue of RMB 868.7 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 941.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [4][17]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 141.4 billion, with expectations of RMB 157.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of 10.5% [4][17]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues reaching RMB 1,187.1 billion by 2027 [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - Alibaba's current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.4x for the fiscal year 2024 and 9.7x for 2025, with an expected adjusted net profit growth rate of 8% for 2025 [3][4]. - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to the recovery of Alibaba's core e-commerce business and the potential for improved monetization rates, which could lead to accelerated revenue and profit growth [3][4].

Monetary Policy - The central economic work conference proposed "timely RRR and interest rate cuts" to stimulate demand and stabilize prices, with a potential RRR reduction of 100-150 basis points by the end of 2025[3] - Interest rates are expected to be cut by 20-40 basis points in 2025, considering external rate cut space and currency stability[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase from 3% to 4%, amounting to approximately CNY 5.5 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.44 trillion from 2024[10] - The net financing scale of incremental fiscal policies in 2025 is expected to reach CNY 11-12 trillion, an increase of CNY 2-3 trillion from 2024[11] Consumption and Demand - The conference emphasized boosting consumption, particularly among low-income groups, to enhance consumer demand and improve living standards[17] - Specific measures include expanding the scope of "old-for-new" policies in sectors like electric vehicles and electronics, and introducing consumption vouchers to support service consumption[17] Real Estate Market - Policies will focus on both supply and demand to stabilize the real estate market, with measures to activate existing land and control new land supply[24] - The demand-side measures aim to lower purchasing costs and thresholds, enhancing residents' willingness and ability to buy homes[24] Innovation and Industry Policy - The "AI+" initiative aims to foster future industries, with significant opportunities in smart manufacturing, healthcare, and transportation[28] - The focus on green and low-carbon transitions will benefit the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind energy[29]

Economic Overview - China's economy continues to show steady recovery, with industrial added value growing by 5.4% year-on-year in November, slightly up from 5.3% in October[2] - Manufacturing investment remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in November, although fixed asset investment overall grew by only 2.4%[6] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in November increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in October, primarily due to the earlier timing of promotional events like "Double Eleven"[3] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to drive consumer spending, with household appliances seeing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.2%[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as aerospace and electronic communication equipment, reported year-on-year growth rates of 35.4% and 8.8%, respectively[6] - The service sector's production index rose by 6.1% year-on-year, supported by strong performances in IT services and financial services[3] Investment Insights - Real estate investment saw a narrowing decline of 11.5% year-on-year in November, an improvement from the previous month's 12.4% drop[7] - Private investment decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, but excluding real estate, it grew by 6.2%[6] Financial Indicators - Total social financing in November was 2.34 trillion yuan, a decrease from 3.57 trillion yuan in October, with a notable drop in new RMB loans by 5.8 billion yuan year-on-year[7] - M1 growth rate improved to -3.1% in November, a significant recovery from -6.1% in October, indicating potential positive effects from debt replacement[8]

Group 1: Policy Framework - Trump's 2.0 policy emphasizes "America First," focusing on "security" and "efficiency" to reshape the U.S. economy, politics, and diplomacy[2] - The new cabinet reflects a higher alignment with Trump's policies compared to the first term, reducing internal conflicts and accelerating policy implementation[26] - Key policies include immigration, tariffs, and tax cuts, which are expected to have significant impacts on the U.S. economy and global markets[29] Group 2: Economic Impacts - Immigration policy tightening may raise wages by limiting labor supply but could also exacerbate structural imbalances in the job market[3] - Tariff policies are expected to have limited effects on trade deficits but serve as negotiation tools to encourage manufacturing return to the U.S.[3] - Tax cuts are projected to boost corporate investment and consumer spending, but their long-term benefits may be offset by tariffs and increased fiscal deficits[3] Group 3: Market Projections - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 100-105 in the short term, with a potential shift from a strong to a weak dollar as fiscal deficits rise[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 3.5%-4.0% in the short term, with a mid-term equilibrium level of 4.5%-5.0%[5] - The combination of high growth, high inflation, and high interest rates is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term, necessitating market adjustments[5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 60, indicating a potential upside of 28.2% [3][16][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the self-owned brand home goods and trendy toy markets, capturing high growth in both sectors. The global market for self-owned brand retail is expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR, reaching USD 86.8 billion in the next three years [3][34]. - The company employs three operational models for rapid expansion: the partner model, agency model, and direct sales model, with expectations for continued growth in the partner model and an increase in overseas direct sales stores [3][21]. - Revenue and profit are projected to grow over 20% in the next three years, supported by a robust expansion strategy and a diversified product offering [3][20]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 77.38 billion in mainland China, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, with TOP TOY revenue growing by 42.5% [20]. - The company plans to open 900-1100 new stores in 2024, with a significant portion in both domestic and overseas markets [21][20]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.1%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased overseas revenue contributions [29][20]. Market Positioning - The company has a strong competitive advantage in the self-owned brand home goods market, with a significant market share in both domestic and international markets [3][34]. - The trendy toy market is also expanding rapidly, with expectations for continued growth driven by consumer trends towards self-indulgence and unique product offerings [2][34]. - The company’s strategic acquisition of a stake in Yonghui Supermarket is expected to enhance its market presence and product diversity, further supporting its long-term growth objectives [23][24].

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading," indicating that the industry is expected to perform attractively compared to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The results of the tenth batch of centralized procurement were released, with significant price reductions but limited impact on listed pharmaceutical companies. The procurement will be implemented starting April 2025, involving 439 companies and 778 products, with an average of 12.5 companies per product, the highest in history [1][2]. - The average price reduction for the selected products is substantial, with some products experiencing reductions of up to 97% compared to previous prices. However, the overall revenue impact on major listed companies is expected to be limited, particularly for companies like Shiyao and Keren, with the exception of Shiyao's Doxorubicin Liposome Injection, which may see a revenue decline of approximately 1 to 1.5 billion RMB [2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "tenglong huan niao" (腾笼换鸟), which refers to the government's strategy of reallocating funds saved from generic drug procurement to support innovative drugs, thereby benefiting the overall healthcare system [2]. Summary by Sections Section: Procurement Results - The tenth batch of centralized procurement includes 62 successful products, with an average of over 6 companies winning bids per product, promoting a more stable and diverse supply of selected products [1][2]. - The procurement process has successfully saved patients approximately 182 billion RMB annually since 2018, with a cumulative payment of over 350 billion RMB for negotiated drugs benefiting 830 million patients [2]. Section: Company Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation overview of various pharmaceutical companies, with several companies rated as "Buy," including AstraZeneca (target price 93.30 RMB), BeiGene (target price 159.00 RMB), and others, indicating strong potential upside [3][13]. - Companies like Heng Rui and Shi Yao are rated as "Neutral," reflecting a more cautious outlook on their future performance compared to their peers [3][13]. Section: Market Trends - The report includes a year-on-year trend analysis of the pharmaceutical industry compared to the Hang Seng Index, indicating the industry's performance trajectory [4]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on the implications of the latest procurement results on market dynamics and company strategies [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as CATL (宁德时代), BYD, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [5][16]. Core Insights - The battery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a 50% year-on-year increase in battery installation volume in November 2024, driven by the rise in new energy vehicle sales [1]. - Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries continue to dominate the market, accounting for 80% of the total battery installation volume in November [1]. - The total battery production in China reached 117.8 GWh in November, marking a 33.3% year-on-year increase, while sales reached 118.3 GWh, up 40.1% year-on-year [2]. - Exports of batteries from China also showed strong growth, with a total of 21.9 GWh exported in November, reflecting a 23.5% year-on-year increase [2]. Summary by Sections Battery Installation and Sales - In November, the total battery installation volume in China was 67.2 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 49.7% and a month-on-month increase of 13.5% [1]. - Cumulative battery installation volume from January to November reached 473.0 GWh, representing a 39.2% year-on-year increase [1]. Production and Export - The production of batteries in November was 117.8 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 4.2% [2]. - The export of energy storage batteries significantly outperformed that of power batteries, with energy storage battery exports increasing by 90% year-on-year [2]. Company Developments - CATL has announced the launch of new heavy-duty commercial vehicle batteries, indicating a strategic expansion into the commercial vehicle sector [3]. - BYD has also introduced new battery models for engineering machinery, highlighting the competitive landscape in the battery market [3]. Investment Implications - The report anticipates continued high growth in battery installation volumes in December, supported by strong sales in the new energy vehicle sector [4]. - The establishment of overseas factories by Chinese automakers and battery manufacturers, such as CATL's joint venture in Spain, is seen as a strategic move to mitigate export challenges [4]. - Companies with cost and technological advantages, particularly CATL, are recommended for investment consideration [4].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 12 月 12 日 全球宏观 通胀合预期，市场押注 12 月降息几成定局—美国 11 月 CPI 点评 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 美国 2024 年 11 月 CPI 同比增 2.7%，预期为 2.7%，上月为 2.6%；11 月 CPI 环 比增 0.3%，预期为 0.3%，上月为 0.2%；11 月核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，持平预期及 前值；核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，预期为 0.3%，上月同为 0.3%。 11 月 CPI 是美联储 12 月 FOMC 会议最后一份重要参考数据。尽管名义 CPI 出现 回升，但合乎市场预期，并没有出现意外上行，也为 12 月降息 25 基点扫清阻 碍。总体来看，11 月通胀分项中，美联储最为重视的粘性通胀部分，包括住 房通胀和超级核心通胀均较为平稳，也是市场对这份数据较为乐观的原因，而 商品通胀则出现明显反弹，新车及二手车价格回升是主要推力，可能与此前的 港口罢工和气候灾害相关，但持续性可能有限。具体来看： 住房通胀回落保障核心服务通胀平稳。主要住所租金以及业主等值租 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price adjusted to $102.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.3% from the current price of $89.21 [6]. Core Insights - Baidu's advertising business is expected to face short-term pressure, with a focus on the progress of AI search monetization in 2025. The negative impact of search transformation on traditional advertising revenue is anticipated to persist for several quarters [1][2]. - The report highlights that Baidu's core advertising revenue is projected to decline by approximately 7.8% year-on-year in 2024, with a further decline expected in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2]. - The company is expected to experience a shift in revenue structure, with advertising revenue growth under pressure while cloud services continue to contribute positively, albeit at lower profit margins compared to advertising [1][2]. Financial Projections - Baidu's core revenue is forecasted to be RMB 132,538 million in 2024, with a slight decrease of 0.2% compared to previous estimates. The revenue is expected to grow to RMB 143,100 million by 2026 [2]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 26,711 million, reflecting a decrease of 3.4% from prior estimates, with an operating margin of 20.2% [2]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 24,757 million in 2024, down 3.4% from previous forecasts, with a net profit margin of 18.7% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The report provides a detailed breakdown of Baidu's revenue sources, with online marketing services expected to generate RMB 72,600 million in 2024, while cloud services are projected to reach RMB 20,989 million [2]. - The revenue from autonomous driving and new businesses is anticipated to be RMB 10,509 million in 2025, indicating growth potential in these segments [2]. Market Context - Baidu's valuation remains below industry averages, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times for 2025, suggesting potential for upward adjustment as the market stabilizes [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the monetization progress of AI initiatives, which could significantly impact Baidu's future revenue streams [1][2].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2024 年 12 月 10 日 | | 中国宏观 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 从"积极"到"更加积极"的政策新意—12 月中央政治局会议点评 2024 年 12 月 9 日，中共中央总书记习近平主持召开中央政治局会议，分析研 究 2025 年经济工作。 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 12 月中央政治局会议意义非凡，既是 9 月政治局会议释放积极信号以来的延 续，又是对 2025 年经济的定调，直接决定着 12 月中央经济工作会议的方向， 以及 2025 年全国两会具体经济工作目标的制定。总体上，我们认为 12 月中央 政治局会议定调更加积极，提出要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策， ...