二手车价格连续回落带动核心商品价格继续降温。二手车价格回落继续带 动整体核心商品降温，且其前瞻性指标-Manheim 二手车价格指数仍在低 位徘徊，意味着短期核心商品价格可能负增长。但与此同时，红海紧张局 势暂未解除，全球供应链压力难言明显缓解，且航运价格对于商品价格的 传导有滞后性，以及全球制造业景气度回升、欧美阶段性开启补库对于大 宗商品价格均有支撑，意味着商品价格可能不会延续通缩状态。 美国 2024 年 6 月 CPI 同比增 3.0%，低于市场预期的 3.1%，以及上月的 3.3%； 环比-0.1%，预期 0.1%，上月为 0.0%。核心 CPI 同比增 3.3%，低于市场预期及 上月的 3.3%；核心 CPI 环比 0.1%，同样低于预期和上月的 0.2%。 住房通胀滞后回落，但进一步回落空间有限。作为去通胀进程的主要推动 力量，本月住房通胀环比全面放缓，继续沿着其前瞻性指标—租金及住房 价格指数回落。但需要提醒的是住房服务通胀总体滞后性较强，随后住房 通胀进一步回落的空间有限，若根据市场的租金指数，4 季度住房通胀不 仅不会进一步下降，反而可能企稳回升。 全面降温的通胀数据公布后，利率期货隐含的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.80, indicating a potential upside of 69.7% from the current closing price of HKD 2.83 [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a strong certainty of revenue and net profit growth exceeding 10% in 1H24, driven by the continued sales growth of new oncology products and robust performance in core surgical products [1]. - The company aims to complete five business development (BD) transactions in 2024, with four expected in 2H24, focusing on mid-to-late stage or near-commercialization products [1]. - The impact of recent drug price regulations on sales is limited, with no significant price discrimination between retail and hospital channels [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 26,199 million in 2023 to RMB 29,395 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,332 million in 2023 to RMB 2,844 million in 2024, marking a growth of 20.2% [4][11]. - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of over 30% and plans to continue share buybacks after the interim report [1]. Product Updates - Established products like Flurbiprofen gel patch are expected to see a 20% sales increase, compensating for price reductions due to provincial procurement [2]. - New products, particularly biosimilars, are rapidly gaining market share, with innovative drugs projected to contribute 43% to total revenue [2]. - The report anticipates the launch of several new products by 2025, including CDK2/4/6 inhibitors and KRAS G12C inhibitors, which will strengthen the company's position in the oncology market [2]. Valuation and Forecast Adjustments - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 by 2-3% to reflect stronger visibility in performance recovery, maintaining a DCF target price of HKD 4.80 [2][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times and a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 1.4 times for 2024-2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 16.30, indicating a potential upside of 28.5% from the current price of HKD 12.68 [1][4]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motors reported strong earnings in Q2 2024, benefiting from improved export performance and product mix. The company expects a net profit of RMB 6.5 billion to RMB 7.3 billion for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 377.5% to 436.3% [1]. - The sales growth of the Tank brand and strong export performance are anticipated to support profit improvement for the full year. The Tank brand's sales in June increased by 104.0% year-on-year, with Q2 sales reaching 66,900 units, up 95.9% year-on-year [1]. - The report projects an increase in gross margin forecasts for 2024 and 2025 from 17.6% to 20.2% and from 17.6% to 20.6%, respectively, reflecting the rising sales of the Tank brand and higher export sales [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for Great Wall Motors is projected to grow from RMB 137.34 billion in 2022 to RMB 183.56 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% [3][6]. - Net profit is expected to rebound from RMB 7.02 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.81 billion in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 68.2% [3][6]. - The report indicates an increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 0.82 in 2023 to RMB 1.38 in 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 4.4% in 2024 [3][6].

交银国际研究 公司更新 好未来教育 (TAL US) 1 年股价表现 7/23 11/23 3/24 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% TAL US MSCI中国指数 资料来源: FactSet 教学点扩张布局暑期拉新,学习机新品发售,硬件收入保持高增长 教育 2024 年 7 月 9 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 10.52 美元 15.50 +47.3% 股份资料 | | | |--------------------|----------| | 52周高位 (美元) | 15.24 | | 52周低位 (美元) | 6.00 | | 市值 (百万美元) | 4,805.22 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 1.75 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (16.71) | | 200天平均价 (美元) | 12.06 | 资料来源: FactSet 估值:我们维持公司2025财年收入增速37%以及调整后净利润增速67%的 | | | |-------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for 汇通达网络 (9878 HK) with a target price of HK$30.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.0% from the current price of HK$22.90 [3][4]. Core Insights - 汇通达网络 is committed to returning at least 15% of its distributable profits as cash dividends to shareholders over the next three years (2024-2026) [1]. - The company is focusing on a production and sales integration strategy and expanding its overseas operations, particularly in Southeast Asia and Central Asia [2]. - The company aims for a 30% profit growth target for the year, despite short-term revenue pressures due to industry adjustments and external factors such as the price reduction of Apple smartphones [2]. Summary by Sections Business Development - As of June 2024, the company has 240,000 registered member stores and 90,000 active member stores, representing year-on-year growth of 12% and 19% respectively. The average procurement amount per store remains at RMB 350,000 [1]. - Revenue from member stores has increased to 44% in the first five months of 2024, up from 35% in the same period last year [1]. - The company has improved its profit structure by increasing its own brand offerings, with the headquarters supply chain accounting for 51% of total sales, and the average gross margin for key product categories rising by 21% year-on-year [1]. Sector Performance - In the consumer electronics sector, smartphone sales have benefited from price reductions by Apple, with expectations of recovery in the second half of the year due to supportive sales policies from brands [1]. - The home appliance sector faces short-term growth challenges but is focusing on developing its own brands, such as the air conditioning brand 阿尔蒂莎, which has already received initial orders [1]. - The new energy transportation sector is expanding into new car sales, used car sales, and battery recycling, along with new photovoltaic-related businesses [1]. - The agricultural inputs sector is experiencing a downturn, with price and sales declines in fertilizers and pesticides, prompting a strategic reduction in general fertilizer scale [1]. - In daily chemical products, the company plans to deepen cooperation with cleaning brands and launch its own household cleaning products [1]. Overseas Expansion - The company is leveraging its supply chain capabilities to expand into Southeast Asia and Central Asia, with a focus on aligning products with local consumer habits [2]. - The partnership with 极兔 is expected to enhance its market presence in Southeast Asia, supported by the existing network of its affiliate, 五星控股 [2].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-----------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2024 年 7 月 8 日 | | 全球宏观 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 6 月非农新增就业 20.6 万人，预期 19 万人，前值修正至 21.8 万人。6 月 失业率升至 4.1%，高于预期和前值 4.0%。劳动参与率微升至 62.6%，符合预 期，上月为 62.6%。6 月平均时薪同比增速回落至 3.9%，与预期一致，前值 4.1%；平均时薪环比增 0.3%，与预期一致，前值 0.4%；平均每周工时维持在 34.3，与预期和前值一致。 新增就业仍主要集中在政府、医疗健康以及社会救助等行业。其中，政府 部门新增就业 7.0 万人，高于过去 12 个月平均的 4.9 万人，与此同时，我 们注意到政府部门就业缺口已基本接近2019年水平，预计后续对于整 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Insurance, with a target price of HKD 51, indicating a potential upside of 38.4% from the current price of HKD 36.85 [7][18]. Core Insights - Ping An's decision to receive special dividends in shares rather than cash has increased its stake in Lufax from 41.4% to 56.82%, allowing it to consolidate Lufax as a subsidiary in its financial statements [5][7]. - Lufax reported a turnaround in its pre-tax profit for Q1 2024, although it is still expected to incur losses for the full year. However, significant improvement in profitability is anticipated for 2025 [1][7]. - The share price of Lufax's American Depositary Shares (ADS) was noted at USD 2.95, which is higher than the offer price of USD 2.254, indicating that Ping An has no intention of privatizing Lufax or changing its listing status [2][7]. Summary by Sections Shareholding Structure Changes - Prior to the special dividend, Ping An held 41.4% of Lufax, with the second-largest shareholder, Tun Kung, holding 26.87%. After the dividend distribution, Ping An's stake increased to 56.82%, while Tun Kung's stake decreased to 17.78% [5][27]. - The new shareholding structure post-dividend distribution shows Ping An's significant increase in ownership, which reflects confidence in Lufax's business prospects [5][7]. Financial Implications - The consolidation of Lufax will result in financial changes for Ping An, but these will be classified as non-recurring items and will not affect its operating profit after tax (OPAT) [7]. - The report projects that Ping An's operating profit for 2024 is likely to show positive growth from last year's low levels, reinforcing the attractiveness of its current valuation [7].

图表 20: 量子计算产业规模 图表 21: 量子计算下游应用占比 资料来源：ICV TA&K，交银国际 *注：E=ICV TA&K 预测 资料来源：ICV TA&K，交银国际 *注：E=ICV TA&K 预测 数量技术或将在 2027/28 年达到相对成熟的阶段，为大规模商业应用奠定坚实 的基础；3）人工智能等新型应用对计算的需求或在 2027 年之前持续快速增 长。在半导体行业进入后摩尔时代的背景下，新型的计算方法和计算架构正在 弥补芯片算力增长不足所带来的计算缺口。而量子计算由于其高效的计算速 率，或可在这段时间在特殊计算的场景下获得高增长的机会。 量子通信：受益于网络信息安全需求增长 图表 22: 量子通信全球规模 (QKD/QRNG/PQC) 图表 23: QKD 量子通信下游应用 (2023) 从各个细分市场情况来看，量子随机数发生器现已在民用通信的各个领域，包 括手机移动终端、汽车和 IoT 加密通信应用场景下落地，这些应用场景往往涉 及到传输用户身份、财务数据等敏感信息，我们认为加密信息传输或需要一定 的市场催化（例如大规模重要信息被盗或者加密政策出台）来进一步激发市场 对量子随机数发生器等加 ...

康方生物 (9926 HK) 1 年股价表现 7/23 11/23 3/24 7/24 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%9926 HK 恒生指数 资料来源: FactSet 专家解读:看好依沃西海外成功率,安全性或成关键优势;重申买入 个股评级 买入 医药 2024 年 7 月 4 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 36.50 港元 70.00 +91.8% | 股份资料 | | |------------------------|-----------| | 52 周高位 (港元 ) | 51.95 | | 52 周低位 (港元) | 31.25 | | 市值 ( 百万港元 ) | 31,508.63 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 5.14 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (21.34) | | 200 天平均价 (港元 ) | 44.40 | | | | 财务数据一览 | 年结 12月31 日 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | |--------------------------------|----------|----- ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 新能源 2024 年 7 月 2 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 7.49 港元 9.03 +20.6% 龙源电力 (916 HK) 1 年股价表现 7/23 11/23 3/24 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%916 HK 恒生指数 资料来源: FactSet 开展收购母公司新能源资产,应支持估值提升 个股评级 买入 | 股份资料 | | |------------------------|-----------| | 52 周高位 (港元 ) | 8.24 | | 52 周低位 (港元 ) | 4.42 | | 市值 ( 百万港元 ) | 24,850.92 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 76.77 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 26.52 | | 200 天平均价 (港元 ) | 5.91 | | | | 财务数据一览 | 年结 12月31 日 | 2022 | 2023 | 2025E | 2026E | | |--------------------------------|----------|----------|------- ...