交银国际研究 公司更新 | 收盘价 | | | | 2024 年 7 月 2 日 | |-------------|----|----|----|-------------------------------| | 港元 3.93 | | | | | 新能源 信义光能 (968 HK) 光伏玻璃供过于求加剧,多晶硅投产陷入两难,维持中性 需求疲软、供给持续增加,光伏玻璃供过于求加剧:5 月美国取消对进口 双面组件的 201 关税豁免,并开展对东南亚 4 国光伏组件的双反调查,导 致东南亚组件尤其是双玻组件对美出货锐减,由于库存压力,组件环节 5- 6 月持续减产。上半年光伏玻璃日熔量增加 1.8 万吨至 12.3 万吨,其中 3-5 月投产加速,6 月有所放缓。由于供给持续增长和需求下降,光伏玻璃 4 月下旬以来持续累库且近期加速,6 月底行业库存天数增至 29 天以上(公 司约 20 天),导致 2.0/3.2 毫米玻璃每平米价格由 4 月的 18.25/26.25 元 (人民币,下同)下跌 13.7%/6.7%至 6 月底的 15.75/24.5 元,7 月或将继 续下跌。尽管东南亚组件产能对玻璃需求减弱 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 吉利汽车 (175 HK) 1 年股价表现 6/23 10/23 2/24 6/24 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%175 HK 恒生指数 资料来源: FactSet 1 季度业绩符合预期;下半年电动化再提速 个股评级 买入 汽车 2024 年 7 月 2 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 8.79 港元 12.50 +42.2% | 股份资料 | | |-----------------------|-----------| | 52 周高位 (港元 ) | 11.26 | | 52 周低位 (港元) | 7.34 | | 市值 (百万港元 ) | 88,457.29 | | 日均成交量 (百万 ) | 36.48 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 2.33 | | 200 天平均价 (港元) | 8.81 | | | | 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2022 | 2023 | 2025E | 2026E | | |--------------------------------|----------|---- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][21]. Core Views - The launch of the mobile game "Naraka: Bladepoint" on July 25 is expected to drive significant growth in the mobile gaming sector, with over 30 million pre-registrations [1]. - The company is projected to achieve mobile game revenues of 2 billion RMB in Q3 and 4.4 billion RMB in 2024, contributing 8% and 5% to total mobile revenue respectively [1]. - Despite a slowdown in mobile game growth and adjustments in PC games, the current stock price reflects these challenges, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the second half of 2024 [2]. - The anticipated recovery in PC game revenue and the new mobile game launch enhances the certainty of revenue growth [3]. Financial Projections - The company expects a 15% year-on-year increase in mobile game revenue for Q2, with a slight decline of 9% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors [7]. - For the full year, mobile game revenue is projected to grow by 13% [7]. - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: 110.16 billion RMB (6.5% growth) - 2025: 121.36 billion RMB (10.2% growth) - 2026: 132.49 billion RMB (9.2% growth) [8]. - Net profit is expected to reach 33.02 billion RMB in 2024, with a slight increase to 35.84 billion RMB in 2025 [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 96.74 USD, with a target price of 117.00 USD, indicating a potential upside of 20.9% [3][21]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 3.84% [5]. Game Revenue Breakdown - The breakdown of game revenue for Q2 2024 is as follows: - Total revenue: 25.11 billion RMB - Mobile games: 14.54 billion RMB - PC games: 4.07 billion RMB [18]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests that the current valuation is below the industry average, with a projected P/E ratio of 18 times for the gaming business in 2024 [2]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 120.26 billion USD [5]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the company driven by new game launches and expected recovery in revenue, supporting the "Buy" rating [2][3].

交银国际研究 首次覆盖 互联网 2024 年 6 月 26 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 12.96 港元 13.40 +3.4% 东方甄选 (1797 HK) 自营建设虽具长期增长潜力,短期盈利不确定性仍存,首予中性 市场关注点主要包括 1)利润短期承压;2)主账号 GMV 数据下降;3)大 主播稳定性及公司管理战略仍在调整期。我们认为公司利润率或在2024财 年 3 季度(截至 2024 年 2 月 29 日)触底。2024 财年 3 季度为公司战略调 整阶段,增加自营品促销力度,导致自营品毛利率下滑。春节后,运营逐 渐回归正常节奏,专场直播推进更为积极,预计 4 季度公司盈利能力将较 3 季度有所改善。但考虑自营品短期仍以规模增长为目标,投入力度仍存 不确定性。 主账号流量增长面临挑战,GMV 规模部分被货架及其他渠道分流。 "小作 文"事件后,东方甄选主账号经历粉丝数短暂下降,目前已稳定在3000万 量级,但确实反映出新增流量增长承压的局面,公司长期拓圈发展面临挑 战。与辉同行上线后,2-3 月,东方甄选主账号直播间(不含货架销售) GMV 下降至 2-3 亿元(人民币,下同),目前环比稳定。主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 48.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 37.95 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the superior weight loss effects of the drug Masitide compared to competitors, with a 14.0% weight reduction at 48 weeks for the 6mg group, significantly outperforming the placebo group [3][4]. - The drug shows promising results in reducing liver fat content, with an 80.2% reduction in the 6mg group compared to only 5.3% in the placebo group, indicating strong potential for treating metabolic diseases [3][4]. - The company is targeting multiple emerging markets, including obesity in adolescents and other conditions with limited treatment options, which could lead to substantial revenue growth [3][4]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a significant increase from RMB 4,556 million in 2022 to RMB 12,951 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.4% [2][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, reaching RMB 2,030 million, after losses in the previous years [2][15]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 79.6% in 2022 to 83.5% by 2026, reflecting operational efficiency [15]. Market Potential - The report highlights a large unmet clinical need in China, with 500 million overweight adults and 160 million obese individuals, creating a significant market opportunity for Masitide [3][4]. - The anticipated approval of Masitide in China by the end of the year could lead to peak sales of RMB 5.2 billion by 2026 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for China Gas (384 HK) with a target price adjusted down to HKD 6.82, indicating a potential downside of 4.5% from the current closing price of HKD 7.14 [1][11]. Core Insights - The core profit for the fiscal year 2024 is expected to decline by 4.3% year-on-year, which is approximately 10% lower than previous expectations. This is primarily due to lower-than-expected gross margins from retail gas sales and increased financial costs from non-RMB loans [2][4]. - Despite the weak profit levels, the company has improved its free cash flow to HKD 4.3 billion, a 70% increase year-on-year, and has maintained a final dividend of HKD 0.40 [2][4]. - The company anticipates further improvement in gas sales margins in fiscal year 2025, projecting a retail gas margin increase to RMB 0.53 per cubic meter, driven by cost optimization and higher pricing for residential gas [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenues of HKD 91,988 million, which is expected to drop to HKD 81,410 million in fiscal year 2024, reflecting an 11.5% decline. The net profit is projected to decrease from HKD 4,293 million in 2023 to HKD 3,185 million in 2024 [4][12]. - The company’s core profit is expected to recover in fiscal year 2025, with a projected increase of 10% year-on-year, supported by improved gas sales margins and a stabilization in new connection volumes [2][4]. - The retail gas volume is expected to grow by 4.2% year-on-year in fiscal year 2025, with management maintaining a conservative outlook on new residential connections, estimating a range of 1.2 to 1.4 million new connections [2][6]. Operational Overview - The report indicates that the retail gas volume for fiscal year 2024 is projected at 23,513 million cubic meters, with a slight increase from the previous year. The gross margin for gas sales is expected to improve to RMB 0.50 per cubic meter [6][12]. - The company has seen a significant drop in new residential connections, down 28% year-on-year to 1.66 million, which is higher than previous expectations [2][6]. - The operational profit margin for the gas sales segment has stabilized at around 47%, while the connection segment accounts for approximately 20% of the profit structure [2][4].

我给大家讲一下我们那个JU发布的全体生活手册的报告 那么全球生物的话是在在美国上市的一家在中国美国都有这个新药研发和那个销售的一家一家公司也专注于这个细胞基因治疗那么它最大的收入来源市场最关注的点其实它的核心品种Supercell它本身也是个比较简单的一家公司最关注的这个这个点就是它这个核心产品它是BCMA CAR-T 那么这个产品是公司和强盛合作的那么所以市场最关注的也是怎么去测算它的一个一个短期和长期的一个一个销售的潜力 那么我们对这个品种的未来三年的销售预测分别是9.5亿、18.9亿和26.4亿美元峰值销售预测是73亿美元那么在这里面合作伙伴强生会分走一部分其实这些预测我们都是高于市场一致预期的那么我们也是来简单讲一下我们的一个背后逻辑第一个还是它的一个本身市场空间尤其是它在海外的市场空间 我们都发现骨髓瘤这个适应症在亚洲和欧美白人里的发病率都是相对比较高的现在全球残难患者差不多50万欧美和中国合计占了80%以上正好也是SoS的主攻市场在这里面复发难治的患者占了有差不多三分之二那么在复发难治的患者里面又有差不多80%以上是一到三天就要失败的就是所谓的一个早期复发的患者 那么在这个早期复发的这个试验证里面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 8.2% from the current closing price of $15.71 [8]. Core Insights - Bilibili's first SLG mobile game, "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World," has exceeded revenue expectations since its public launch on June 13, 2024, with projected first-month revenue between 500-800 million RMB [1][2]. - The game has achieved a high ranking on the iOS game download and sales charts, indicating strong user acceptance with an App Store rating of 4.4, slightly above competitors [1]. - The report highlights the long-term operational potential of SLG mobile games, suggesting that effective content updates and event operations could sustain revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Game Performance - "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" has maintained a top position in the iOS game download rankings and sales charts, with a projected first-month revenue exceeding previous expectations [1]. - Comparatively, other SLG games like Alibaba's "Three Kingdoms Strategy Edition" have achieved a maximum monthly revenue of 1.2 billion RMB, showcasing the competitive landscape [1][3]. Market Strategy - The game differentiates itself by reducing time-consuming operations and enhancing player experience through lower spending requirements, which may attract a broader user base [1]. - Marketing strategies include multi-channel promotions and collaborations with content creators to engage core SLG players [1]. Future Growth Potential - The report anticipates that the new game could open up opportunities in overseas markets, referencing the international success of similar titles [1]. - Revenue contributions from "Three Kingdoms" are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, potentially increasing overall game revenue by 12-20% in 2024, surpassing market expectations [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 48.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.2% from the current price of HKD 38.05 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the promising early data from the company's next-generation cancer therapies, particularly the PD-1/IL-2 dual antibody IBI363, which shows significant efficacy in treating solid tumors. The overall response rates (ORR) for all solid tumor patients reached 17.3%, with a notable 46.7% ORR in the 3mg/kg Q3W dosage group [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's differentiated positioning in the oncology sector, with strong early clinical data suggesting substantial market potential if future trials maintain similar efficacy levels [4]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues increasing from RMB 4,556 million in 2022 to RMB 12,951 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.4% [2][9]. - The net profit is projected to improve significantly from a loss of RMB 2,179 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB 2,030 million by 2026, indicating a turnaround in profitability [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to transition from a loss of RMB 1.46 in 2022 to a profit of RMB 1.25 by 2026, showcasing a substantial recovery [2][9]. Clinical Development Highlights - The report notes that IBI363 has demonstrated superior efficacy compared to existing immuno-oncology (IO) therapies in cold tumors and previously treated patients, with specific mention of its performance in melanoma and MSS colorectal cancer [3][4]. - The company is set to release further data on its key oncology pipeline, including updates on IBI363 and CLDN18.2 candidates, which are anticipated to be significant catalysts for future growth [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (836 HK) with a target price of HKD 27.55, indicating a potential upside of 17.0% from the current price of HKD 23.55 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's installed capacity mix shows resilience against changes in utilization rates this year, with clear profit growth potential. Despite weak wind speeds and a slight increase in national power rationing, the company's wind and solar generation increased by 8% and 191% year-on-year in the first four months of the year [1]. - The report notes that the company's hydropower utilization recovery is weaker than expected due to regional hydrological conditions affecting projects in Yunnan and Sichuan. The forecast for hydropower utilization hours has been adjusted downwards by 1.6% [1]. - The high proportion of thermal power generation is beneficial, providing resilience to profitability amid declining wind and solar prices. A 1% change in thermal fuel costs is estimated to impact profits by approximately 2% for 2024/25, while a 1% change in wind/solar utilization hours is expected to affect profits by about 1.2% [1]. - The report adjusts the target price upwards to HKD 27.55 based on operational cost adjustments and hydropower utilization hours, while also lowering profit forecasts for 2024/25 by 0.5% and 1.3% respectively [1]. - The company has shown superior return on equity (ROE) compared to peers, contributing to its attractiveness in the market, especially with a focus on dividends [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 103,305 million in 2022 to HKD 126,419 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from HKD 7,463 million in 2022 to HKD 23,347 million by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of around 25.5% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.46 in 2022 to HKD 4.78 by 2026, indicating strong growth potential [4]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 8.1% by 2026, enhancing its attractiveness to income-focused investors [4]. Installed Capacity and Generation Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to grow from 52,581 MW in 2022 to 88,507 MW by 2026, with the share of renewable energy increasing from 32.3% to 58.1% over the same period [5]. - The forecast for electricity sales indicates a significant increase, with total sales expected to rise from 184,604 GWh in 2024 to 250,723 GWh by 2026 [5]. Valuation Summary - The report utilizes a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, estimating the value of thermal power at HKD 2.97 per share and renewable energy at HKD 24.58 per share, leading to a total valuation of HKD 27.55 per share [6].