本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价维持震荡。俄乌谈判进展顺利施压油价，柏林谈判美乌在多个关键议题上形成初步共识，美方表 示乌俄之间约 90%的问题已解决，准备前往俄罗斯继续推动谈判。同时欧盟理事会对俄罗斯"影子舰队"实施制 裁。而委内瑞拉局势反复，其原油的折扣幅度已扩大至较布油低 21 美元，而上周折价 14 至 15 美元。周中市场 预期特朗普或下令对委内瑞拉宣战，但 18 号特朗普在国情咨文演讲中未提到委内瑞拉，随后表示仍不排除与委 内瑞拉开战的可能性。总体看，俄乌和谈推进而美委局势紧张，地缘博弈持续。截止 12 月 18 日，WTI 现货收于 56.15 美元，环比-1.45 美元；BRENT 现货收于 61.43 美元，环比-0.95 美元。EIA12 月 12 日当周商业原油库存 环比-127.4 万桶，前值-181.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-74.2 万桶，前值+30.8 万桶。汽油库存环比+480.8 万 桶，前值+639.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+0.3%至 94.8%。美国原油库存下降，净进口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "24 Guoyuan 01" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "22 Vanke 02" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 01A(BC)" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 China Everbright Bank Bond 02" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the individual bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, real estate bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 1 - 1.5 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted transactions. The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted transactions. By industry, real estate industry bonds had the largest average deviation in valuation prices [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "24 Guoyuan 01", "Jian Guan VY02", and "24 China Construction MTN002" had significant valuation price deviations in discounted transactions. The industries involved included urban investment, transportation, and building decoration. The transaction scales ranged from several million yuan to tens of millions of yuan [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - Bonds like "22 Vanke 02", "22 Vanke 04", and "22 Vanke 06" had large positive deviations in valuation prices. The industries mainly included real estate, non - bank finance, and urban investment. The transaction scales varied from tens of thousands of yuan to hundreds of millions of yuan [5]. 3.3 Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Bonds such as "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 01A(BC)", "25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 03BC", and "25 Agricultural Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 02A(BC)" had certain valuation price deviations. Banks involved included state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks. The transaction scales were relatively large, reaching tens of millions of yuan to billions of yuan [6]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Bonds like "25 China Everbright Bank Bond 02", "24 China Construction Bank Bond 01B", and "25 Jiangsu Bank Bond 02BC" had valuation price deviations. Banks included joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, and city commercial banks. The transaction scales ranged from several million yuan to hundreds of millions of yuan [7]. 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds such as "22 Vanke 02", "22 Vanke 04", and "24 Chanrong 06" had a transaction yield higher than 5%. The industries mainly included real estate and non - bank finance. The transaction scales were relatively small, mostly in the range of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - Financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 1 - 1.5 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2]. 3.9 Discounted Transaction Proportions and Transaction Scales of Non - Financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The real estate industry had the largest average deviation in non - financial credit bond valuation prices [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - As of December 12, controlling drawdown is the main strategic goal recently. In a market with slow rises and sharp falls in the past month, the focus is on drawdown control rather than achieving excess returns through duration + band operations [2][12] - Last week (December 8 - December 12), bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 2.95 billion yuan, with credit - bond ETFs having a net inflow of 5.37 billion yuan, while interest - rate bond ETFs and convertible - bond ETFs had net outflows of 960 million yuan and 1.46 billion yuan respectively. Bond ETF net values are marginally recovering [3][16] - As of December 15, 2025, compared with the previous week, more than half of the non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bonds saw their yields rise, real - estate bond yields generally increased, and financial bond yields showed differentiation among bond types [4][18] - The trading preference for ultra - long - term credit bonds has not improved. The number of transactions of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years remains at a low level, and the lack of spread protection space weakens investors' motivation [5][20] - In terms of the issuance pricing of local government bonds, the average issuance rate of 10 - year local bonds in the latest week was 2.05%, slightly up from the previous week. The average coupon rates of new 20 - year and 30 - year local bonds were above 2.45%, at a relatively high level within the year. The long - end spreads remain high [6][23] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Quantitative Credit Strategy - As of December 12, the cumulative excess returns of the short - end sinking strategy for urban investment bonds, the bullet strategy for commercial financial bonds, and the sinking strategy for securities firm bonds reached 5bp, 4.4bp, and 1.5bp respectively, while those of other medium - and long - term strategies were less than 5bp. The cumulative excess return of the urban investment dumbbell portfolio, which performed well in the previous two months, dropped to a low of - 25.7bp in the past four weeks. The sinking strategy of the financial bond heavy - position portfolio outperformed the corresponding duration strategy by more than 12bp in cumulative returns [2][12] ETF Strategy - Last week (December 8 - December 12), bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 2.95 billion yuan. Credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs had net inflows of 5.37 billion yuan, net outflows of 960 million yuan, and net outflows of 1.46 billion yuan respectively. Compared with the previous week, their cumulative unit net value weekly growth rates were + 0.05%, + 0.08%, and + 0.20% respectively [3][16] Coupon Asset Heat Map - As of December 15, 2025, compared with the previous week, more than half of the non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bonds saw their yields rise. Except for private - placement bonds of private enterprises within 1 year, the yield adjustments of other varieties were less than 4BP. Real - estate bond yields generally increased, with the yields of non - perpetual bonds within 1 year rising by more than 5BP. Financial bond yields showed differentiation among bond types, with the yields of commercial financial bonds within 3 years mainly rising, bank sub - debt valuations generally recovering, and the performance of securities firm sub - debt being better than that of ordinary bonds [4][18] Ultra - long Credit Bond Tracking - The trading preference for ultra - long - term credit bonds has not improved. This week (December 8 - December 12, 2025), the number of transactions of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years remained at a relatively low level of around 300. The spread between the most actively traded 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds is only 19.9bp, which further weakens investors' motivation [5][20] Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - In the latest week, the average issuance rate of 10 - year local bonds was 2.05%, slightly up from the previous week. The average coupon rates of new 20 - year and 30 - year local bonds were above 2.45%, at a relatively high level within the year. The long - end spreads of local government bonds remain high, with the average spread of bonds with a maturity of 10 years and above being higher than 20bp [6][23]

立足水泥产业链，盈利能力行业领先 公司主业以华东市场为核心，依托长江水运便捷的物流通道和当 地稳定优质的石灰石资源布局江、浙、皖、赣等省，较低的成本形 成水泥主业的先发优势。公司具备水泥熟料年产能约 1800 万吨， 水泥年产能约 2000 万吨，骨料年产能 1800 万吨。 （1）T 型战略奠定公司成本优势：公司在沿江石灰石多的地方建 立水泥熟料基地，在经济较为发达的沿海地区收购、改造小水泥厂 为水泥研磨站，既能利用安徽当地优质石灰石矿山，又能凭借长江 水运实现熟料低成本输送。2025 年上半年公司吨成本仅为 154.46 元（同期海螺水泥吨成本为 173.55 元），处于行业领先水平。 （2）"区域+产业链"布局双延伸：公司稳步向西部、南部延伸， 多区域布局有助于降低公司单一市场依赖。公司 2014 年切入骨料 业务，骨料往往价格以成本为底线，市场竞争弱于水泥，有助于缓 解需求下行对公司整体业绩的冲击；公司同时利用水泥窑协同处 置危废、固废，年处置能力约 86.8 万吨，该业务是符合国家产业 政策的创新型环保业务。 前瞻布局半导体投资 战略层面，公司 2020 年提出"一主两翼"规划，在夯实水泥建材 主业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is set to invest approximately 1 billion RMB in the construction of an aerospace equipment assembly base, which aims to establish capabilities for the development and production of aerospace equipment, including the "Haolong" spaceplane [2]. - The "Haolong" aircraft is China's first reusable cargo spaceplane, designed for low-cost transportation systems for commercial space stations, offering significant advantages in cost efficiency and operational flexibility [3]. - The market potential for commercial space services, such as supply to space stations and satellite deployment, is vast, aligning with the company's strategic positioning as a leading aerospace manufacturer [3]. - The company is expected to see substantial growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projections of 3.79 billion RMB, 4.76 billion RMB, and 5.71 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3271.88%, 25.81%, and 19.85% respectively [3][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.68 billion RMB in 2023 to 80.61 billion RMB in 2025, representing a staggering growth rate of 4429.50% [8]. - The company's diluted earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.17 RMB in 2023 to 1.42 RMB in 2025 [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 263.28 in 2023 to 51.74 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as profitability increases [8].

Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - Powell described the U.S. labor market as a "curious kind of balance" due to a marked slowing in both supply and demand for workers[3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise further as labor supply continues to recover, indicating that "weak labor supply" is misleading[3] - The employment distribution is narrowing, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, signaling a weakening "service-employment-income-consumption" chain[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The unemployment rate is becoming a key indicator for observing the U.S. economy, with a significant rise expected in the second half of 2025[9] - The unemployment rate reached 4.564% in November, exceeding the Federal Reserve's forecast of 4.5% for the end of 2025[13] - The anticipated rise in unemployment may trigger a "recession trade" as the Federal Reserve's tolerance for rising unemployment is limited[13] Group 3: Interest Rate and Employment Impact - The ability to suppress the unemployment rate depends on factors such as the relative position to "neutral interest rates" and the clarity of fiscal and monetary policy paths[14] - There is a risk that the impact of interest rate cuts on employment may be overestimated, with smaller stimulus effects and longer lag times[31] - The structure of non-farm payrolls remains weak, with private sector job growth largely stagnant outside of the education and healthcare sectors[14] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[5] - Global economic conditions may worsen under clearer tariffs, potentially leading to unexpected global monetary easing[5] - Data measurement errors could impact the accuracy of economic assessments[5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic pulp molding industry, with a revenue CAGR of 22.79% and a net profit CAGR of 23.89% from 2019 to 2024, maintaining over 85% of its sales from exports [2] - The pulp molding industry is expected to benefit from global trends towards reducing plastic use, with the company positioned to capitalize on this shift due to its fully biodegradable and recyclable raw materials [3][45] - The company's strong mold design and manufacturing capabilities, along with a complete supply chain from mold to raw materials to production, provide a competitive edge and high profitability [4] - The establishment of production capacity in Thailand helps mitigate risks from trade disputes and enhances profit margins due to advanced production technology [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has maintained industry-leading performance and has a robust management team with significant experience in mold design and production [2][21] - The company has a market share of approximately 16% in the global pulp molding food service sector and about 20% in the domestic market [21] Investment Logic - The global consensus on reducing plastic production and consumption is driving demand for pulp molding products, which are environmentally friendly and cost-effective alternatives [3][39] - The company’s products are primarily made from natural fibers like sugarcane and bamboo, which are fully biodegradable and recyclable, positioning them favorably against other alternatives like PLA and PBAT [45][46] Production and Capacity - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain that includes strong control over raw materials, mold design, and production processes, ensuring cost efficiency and high-quality output [4][24] - The Thai production facility, with an initial capacity of 35,000 tons, is operational and a second phase of 65,000 tons is planned, which will further enhance the company's growth potential [5][18] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.568 billion, 2.505 billion, and 3.131 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 296 million, 568 million, and 755 million RMB [6][10] - The expected EPS for the same period is 2.89, 5.56, and 7.38 RMB, with a target price set at 88.89 RMB based on a PE ratio of 16X for 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is implementing differentiated pricing adjustments across various product groups to optimize its business structure and enhance operational quality and value creation [2][3]. - The issuance of HKD 1 billion convertible bonds at a coupon rate of 4.25% aims to strengthen the company's capital structure and support global market expansion and product development [4]. - The integration of SUSONITY is showing initial synergies, with improvements in organizational governance and cross-regional collaboration, enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of HKD 1,056 million in 2023, increasing to HKD 6,702 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 73.36% from 2025 to 2026 [10]. - Net profit is expected to rise from HKD 182 million in 2023 to HKD 864 million in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 161.40% in 2026 [10]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to HKD 661 million and HKD 864 million, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of acquisitions and operational synergies [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The differentiated pricing strategy is designed to align product value with market demand, focusing on high-value-added businesses, with price adjustments ranging from 3% to 30% based on product characteristics [3]. - The company is actively pursuing global expansion through acquisitions, specifically targeting the surface materials business of Merck in Germany, to establish itself as a leader in the pearlescent pigment market [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - As of December 15, 2025, private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds have higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. The yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, and real estate bond yields have generally risen. In the financial bond sector, the yields of financial bonds have declined slightly more than those of general credit bonds, but there is differentiation among bond types [2][3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: Private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds have higher overall valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds have more than half of their yields increasing, with most real estate bond yields rising. In financial bonds, the yields of urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds have higher valuation yields and spreads [2][3][8]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds have more than half of their yields increasing, except for private enterprise private - placement bonds within one year, with the yield adjustment of other varieties being less than 4BP. Real estate bond yields have generally increased, with the yields of non - perpetual bonds within one year rising by more than 5BP, and 3 - 5 - year private enterprise public non - perpetual bonds also having a significant adjustment. Financial bond yields have a slightly higher proportion of decline than general credit bonds, with differentiation among bond types. For example, the 1 - 2 - year public perpetual bonds of leasing bonds have a 5.5BP increase in yield [3][4][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.6%. Bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in Guizhou's county - level areas, and regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, and Gansu also have higher spreads [2][17]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Most yields have declined. The average decline of 2 - 3 - year varieties is 1.4BP, but most varieties within one year have continued to adjust. The varieties with a large decline in yield include 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou prefecture - level cities, 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan county - level areas, etc. [2][17]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.95%. Bonds with yields higher than 4% are in Guizhou's prefecture - level cities, and regions such as Yunnan, Gansu, and Liaoning also have higher spreads [27]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: More than half of the bond varieties have yield adjustments, with the average yield of varieties within one year increasing by 2BP. The varieties with a large decline in yield include 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou county - level areas, 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan county - level areas, etc. [27]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: Private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds have higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties [2][3][8]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: More than half of the yields of non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds have increased. Except for private enterprise private - placement bonds within one year, the yield adjustment of other varieties is less than 4BP. Real estate bond yields have generally increased, with the yields of non - perpetual bonds within one year rising by more than 5BP, and 3 - 5 - year private enterprise public non - perpetual bonds also having a significant adjustment [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: The valuation yields and spreads of urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds are relatively high [4][8]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: The proportion of yield decline is slightly higher than that of general credit bonds, but there is differentiation among bond types. Leasing bonds have the largest adjustment, with the 1 - 2 - year public perpetual bond yield increasing by 5.5BP. The yields of commercial financial bonds within 3 years are mainly increasing, with an increase of generally less than 2BP, and the adjustment of varieties within one year is greater than that of 1 - 3 - year varieties. The valuation of bank sub - bonds has generally recovered, with the yields of 3 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds and 2 - 5 - year perpetual bonds of different banks generally decreasing. The performance of securities company sub - bonds is better than that of ordinary bonds, with the yields of 1 - 2 - year public perpetual and private non - perpetual bonds of the same period decreasing by about 3BP [4][8].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both rebounded, with inflation expectations remaining unchanged [1][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and relatively loose. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds continues to widen [1][19]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with trading heat in sectors such as light industry, retail, military, textiles, communications, and real estate all above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - The volatility of major indices has generally increased, with the volatility of sectors like communications, electric power, and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Institutional Research - Research activity is concentrated in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric power, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, with an upward trend in research heat for non-ferrous metals, computers, and textiles [3][42]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases in forecasts for sectors including pharmaceuticals, coal, automobiles, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals [4][21]. - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased across the A-share market [4][17]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, continuing to net sell A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell amounts in sectors like communications, electronics, and finance has increased, while it has decreased in electric power, chemicals, and automobiles [5][31]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought sectors such as communications, machinery, and home appliances, while net selling occurred in pharmaceuticals, computers, and electronics [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level since late July 2025. The main net purchases were in sectors like electronics, communications, and military [6][39]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, retail, and electronics has increased [6][38]. Hot Stocks Trading - The trading volume on the "Dragon and Tiger List" has increased, with sectors like retail, light industry, and electric power showing relatively high and rising trading volumes [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positioning - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with significant increases in positions in sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and retail [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with mid/small-cap growth and mid-cap value has increased, while the correlation with large-cap growth and large/small-cap value has decreased [8][48]. - The scale of newly established equity funds has continued to decline, with both active and passive fund sizes decreasing [8][50].