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 债市基本面高频数据跟踪:2025年9月第1周:钢材库存压力上升
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 15:21
 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided.   2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth faces challenges such as rising steel inventory pressure and weakening power plant daily consumption [1][4]. - Inflation shows that the rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient, and oil prices have significantly declined [2][4].   3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs   3.1 Economic Growth: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure  3.1.1 Production: Weakening Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has weakened marginally. On September 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 869,000 tons, a 5.8% decrease from September 2. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has significantly declined. On September 5, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from August 29; the capacity utilization rate was 85.8%, a 4.2 - percentage - point decrease from August 29. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.8% on September 5, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from August 29 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On September 4, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 59.8%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 28; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 67.5%, a 5.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28. The operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise. On September 4, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.3%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28, and the operating rate of downstream weaving machines was 62.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from August 28 [4][16].   3.1.2 Demand: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has turned positive month - on - month. From September 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, an 11.2% increase from the same period in August, a 15.4% increase from the same period in September last year, a 20.3% decrease from the same period in September 2023, and a 38.7% decrease from the same period in September 2022. After the Shenzhen property market new policy was released on September 5, the market activity increased [4][22]. - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][25]. - Steel prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 1.2%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2. However, the steel inventory pressure has increased. On September 5, the inventory of five major steel products was 1.0777 million tons, a 313,000 - ton increase from August 29 [4][30]. - Cement prices continue to decline. On September 9, the national cement price index fell 1.0% compared with September 2. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][30]. - Glass prices have rebounded. On September 9, the active glass futures contract price was 1,199 yuan per ton, a 5.0% increase from September 2 [4][36]. - The container shipping freight index has weakly stabilized. On September 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% compared with August 29, and the SCFI index fell 0.04% [4][38].   3.2 Inflation: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices  3.2.1 CPI: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices - The rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient. On September 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% increase from September 2. The month - on - month decline has narrowed [4][45]. - The agricultural product price index has steadily rebounded. On September 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% compared with September 2. By variety, eggs (up 3.4%) > vegetables (up 2.2%) > chicken (up 0.6%) > fruits (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.3%) > beef (up 0.3%) > mutton (down 0.3%) [4][49].   3.2.2 PPI: Significant Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices have significantly declined. On September 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 66.9 and 62.6 US dollars per barrel, a 3.7% and 4.5% decrease respectively compared with September 9. Major oil - producing countries have decided to increase production, intensifying concerns about oversupply [4][52]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2 [4][55]. - The domestic commodity index has declined month - on - month. On September 9, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.2% compared with September 2, and the CRB index fell 0.7% [4][56].
 “数”看期货:近一周卖方策略一致观点-20250910
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 14:10
 Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts all experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -1.74%, while the CSI 300 index futures had the smallest decline at -1.02% [3][12] - The average trading volume for the current, next, and seasonal contracts of IF, IC, and IM increased compared to the previous week, with IC seeing the largest increase of 3.52% and IM the smallest at 0.87%. Conversely, IH's average trading volume decreased by -0.34% [3][12] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.16%, -9.28%, -10.37%, and -0.23%, respectively, indicating a deepening of the IF discount and a narrowing of the IC and IM discounts [3][12]   Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - The cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at 39.80%, 56.30%, 36.10%, and 47.10% percentiles since 2019, indicating that these rates are within historical distribution norms [4][13] - For arbitrage opportunities, with a 5% annualized return and 15 trading days remaining, the basis rates for the current IF contracts need to reach 0.54% and -0.91% for long and short arbitrage, respectively. Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract [4][13]   Group 3: Market Expectations - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, as indicated by the full decline of the four major index futures contracts last week, with all contracts remaining in a discount state. This reflects a cautious market sentiment [5][14] - The impact of dividend factors on the main contracts is minimal, and it is expected that they will not cause significant disturbances in the market [5][14]   Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among 12 brokerages indicates that the A-share market remains in a bull or slow bull phase, with an upward trend unchanged. Additionally, 9 brokerages believe that expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and foreign capital inflows will improve liquidity [6][54] - There is a consistent positive outlook on sectors such as the AI industry chain, non-ferrous metals, coal, and chemicals among the sell-side strategy teams [6][54]
 美国大幅降息的概率正在增加:美国大幅降息的概率正在增加
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 08:03
 Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell's political shift may lead to a larger-than-expected rate cut in September, potentially 50 basis points, and a total of 100 basis points for the year[4] - The labor market's weakness, with nearly negative job growth over the past four months, will be a key focus for the Fed in September[3] - A significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls provides Powell with a data-driven justification for a substantial rate cut[21]   Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate of 4.3% carries considerable upward risk, indicating a potential inflection point in the labor market[24] - The median probability of finding a job within three months has dropped from 50.7% to 44.9%, marking the lowest level since June 2013[24] - Non-farm payrolls were revised down by 91.1 thousand, representing 0.6% of total employment, which is double the average revision over the past decade[21]   Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's dovish turn is seen as a political maneuver to demonstrate loyalty to Trump, rather than a purely economic assessment[6] - The political landscape is complicated by Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could undermine the Fed's credibility[9] - The composition of the Fed Board may shift, with at least 2-3 votes supporting a 50 basis point cut if Cook is unable to participate in the September FOMC meeting[11]
 ETF业绩跟踪及资金流动周报-20250910
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 02:20
 1. Report Information - The report is titled "ETF Performance Tracking and Fund Flow Weekly Report (2025.09.01 - 2025.09.05)" and was released on September 8, 2025 [1]   2. Core Views - This week, overseas ETF funds showed an overall inflow trend, with a net inflow of 1.447 billion yuan, a slight decline from the previous week. Foreign investors' allocation attitude was positive this week, with the TMT and financial sectors continuing their previous allocation efforts. Short - term attention should be paid to changes in overseas risk preferences and the support of domestic policies to confirm future trends [10]   3. Summary by Category   3.1 Wide - based ETFs - **Fund Inflow Ranking**: The top ten wide - based ETFs with the most significant fund inflows include Southern China Securities 1000 ETF (fund code: 512100.OF) with an inflow of 2.384 billion yuan, Wanjia China Securities 2000 ETF (fund code: 159628.OF) with an inflow of 0.507 billion yuan, etc [4] - **Fund Outflow Ranking**: The top ten wide - based ETFs with the most significant fund outflows include E Fund ChiNext ETF (fund code: 159915.OF) with an outflow of 4.219 billion yuan, Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF (fund code: 588000.OF) with an outflow of 3.475 billion yuan, etc [4]   3.2 Industry Theme, Smart Beta, and Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs - **Industry Theme ETFs**: The average weekly returns vary widely, with some sectors showing significant gains (e.g., 8.82% for a certain theme) and others showing losses (e.g., - 5.49%) [5] - **Smart Beta ETFs**: The average weekly return had fluctuations, and the fund inflow/outflow situation also showed different trends [5] - **Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs**: The average weekly returns and fund inflow/outflow also showed diverse trends, with some sectors having positive returns and inflows [5]   3.3 Overseas ETFs - **Overall Fund Flow**: This week, overseas ETF funds showed an overall inflow trend, with a net inflow of 1.447 billion yuan, a slight decline from the previous week [10] - **Style Index**: CSI 300 and CSI 4500 were favored by funds, with inflow scales more than twice that of SSE 50 [10] - **Industry Level**: All sectors achieved increased allocation. The electronics sector had the most concentrated inflow, and sectors such as banking, computer, and non - bank finance continued the previous trend of fund inflows [10] - **Individual Stocks**: Kweichow Moutai was the most significantly increased in holdings (0.40 billion yuan), and China Ping An, Hygon Information, China Merchants Bank, and Cambricon also had relatively large fund inflows [10]
 转债择券+择时策略周度跟踪-20250910
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 01:39
 Report Overview - The report is a weekly tracking of convertible bond selection and timing strategies from September 1st to September 5th, 2025, released on September 8th, 2025, by the Financial Products Center [1]   Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content   Core Viewpoints - The three strategies jointly hold 12 convertible bonds including Perai Convertible Bond, Jidong Convertible Bond, etc [1] - Affected by the market correction, the turnover of sub - low - price bonds increased, the option strategy maintained low turnover, and the new target price center was lower. The targets increased by the two strategies were mainly A+ rated [1] - The double - low strategy's target increase this week was mainly affected by the change in the conversion premium rate. With the recovery of the equity market, mis - priced targets may have higher recovery space and better trading opportunities [4] - The model's recommended direction points to the power equipment, petroleum and petrochemical, electronics, light manufacturing, and communication industries, still maintaining the technology manufacturing main line. The model marginally increased the petrochemical cycle industry, and optional consumption became the main pressured direction [5]   Summary by Related Catalogs  1. Strategy - held Convertible Bonds - The three strategies jointly hold 12 convertible bonds: Perai Convertible Bond, Jidong Convertible Bond, Fule Convertible Bond, Qiaqia Convertible Bond, Aowei Convertible Bond, Kairun Convertible Bond, Changqi Convertible Bond, Jianfan Convertible Bond, Tiannai Convertible Bond, Aojia Convertible Bond, etc [1]  2. Sub - low - price Convertible Bond Strategy - The top 10 scoring targets for the sub - low - price convertible bond strategy include Chongqing Bank Convertible Bond, Xizi Convertible Bond, etc. The bond ratings of these targets are mainly AAA, AA, and A+ [2]  3. Option Convertible Bond Strategy - The option convertible bond strategy's increased targets include 25 Huomei EB, Xin 23 Convertible Bond, etc. The bond ratings are mainly AA, AA-, and A+ [4]  4. Double - low Strategy - The double - low strategy's target increase this week was mainly affected by the change in the conversion premium rate. Due to the equity market correction, the negative premium of convertible bonds deepened further. Mis - priced targets may have higher recovery space and better trading opportunities with the equity recovery [4]  5. Industry Dimension - The model's recommended direction points to the power equipment, petroleum and petrochemical, electronics, light manufacturing, and communication industries, still maintaining the technology manufacturing main line. The model marginally increased the petrochemical cycle industry, and optional consumption became the main pressured direction [5]  6. Strategy Performance - **Sub - low - price strategy**: Rose 1.35% in the past week, with an excess return of 0.44% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It has risen 16.03% this year, with an excess return of 0.74% compared to the benchmark [9][10] - **Option strategy**: Rose 0.58% in the past week, with an excess return of - 0.33% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It has risen 18.68% this year, with an excess return of 2.99% compared to the benchmark [9][10] - **Double - low enhanced strategy**: Rose 0.91% in the past week, with an excess return of 0.35% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. It has risen 21.41% this year, with an excess return of 9.15% compared to the benchmark [9][10] - **Industry rotation strategy**: Fell 0.63% in the past week, with an excess return of - 1.18% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. However, it still has a cumulative positive excess return of 3.51% compared to the benchmark this year [9][10]  7. Risk - return Characteristics (Last Year) - **Sub - low - price strategy**: Annualized return rate of 37.20%, Sharpe ratio of 2.90, Calmar ratio of 7.11, maximum drawdown of 5.23% [11] - **Option strategy**: Annualized return rate of 36.10%, Sharpe ratio of 3.31, Calmar ratio of 7.71, maximum drawdown of 4.68% [11] - **Double - low enhanced strategy**: Annualized return rate of 48.34%, Sharpe ratio of 2.77, Calmar ratio of 6.37, maximum drawdown of 7.59%, annualized excess return rate of 15.10% [11] - **Industry rotation strategy**: Annualized return rate of 44.23%, Sharpe ratio of 2.58, Calmar ratio of 6.68, maximum drawdown of 6.62%, annualized excess return rate of 11.77% [11]  8. Strategy/Factor Back - testing Results - **Sub - low - price strategy**: The factor is priceavg_priceavg with a weight of 100%, using the average closing price of the past week. The IC mean is - 8.15%, IC standard deviation is 24.84%, ICIR is - 32.81%, the frequency of IC>0 is 17.94%, and the p - Value is 0.00% [19] - **Option strategy**: The factor is amplitude mean with a weight of 100%, using the intraday volatility of convertible bonds relative to the underlying stock. The IC mean is - 4.46%, IC standard deviation is 19.34%, ICIR is - 23.05%, the frequency of IC>0 is 31.30%, and the p - Value is 0.00% [19] - **Double - low enhanced strategy**: Composed of multiple factors such as impliedvol_diff1, MaxPricePremium_diff1_3m, etc., each with a weight of 20% [19] - **Industry rotation strategy**: Composed of factors such as Amihud_diff1_3m, MaxPricePremium_diff1_1m, etc., each with a weight of 25% [19]
 出口韧性几何
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-09 14:50
 Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The US-China trade friction has accelerated the restructuring of global trade, benefiting emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, while posing challenges for Japan, South Korea, and Europe[2][34]. - By July 2025, China's share of US imports is projected to decline by 4.4 percentage points to 9%, while ASEAN's share is expected to rise by 3.2 percentage points to 14%[4][34]. - Despite a significant drop in US import demand since April, imports from ASEAN have maintained a growth rate of around 30%[4][34].   Group 2: Economic Impact - ASEAN's exports of labor-intensive goods such as toys and footwear have increased significantly, with respective shares rising by 21% and 12% in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023[7][34]. - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.5% in the first half of 2024, with foreign direct investment reaching approximately $15.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%[7][34]. - China's exports to ASEAN grew by 12% in the first half of 2025, with capital goods and intermediate goods contributing significantly to this growth[8][34].   Group 3: Market Share Changes - In the overall market, China's export share increased by 0.1 percentage points, while ASEAN's share rose by 0.5 percentage points in the first half of 2024[34]. - The share of imports from Africa to China has increased to 23.1% in 2024, up 6.2 percentage points from 2019, making China Africa's largest trading partner[19][34]. - By August 2025, ASEAN, EU, and Africa accounted for 17.8%, 16.1%, and 5.8% of China's exports, respectively, with ASEAN showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points[24][34].
 资金跟踪系列之十:两融流入放缓,ETF流向非银、有色、化工等领域
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-08 11:38
 Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations also decreasing [1][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced and relatively loose [1][14].   Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with most industry trading heat remaining above the 80th percentile, except for the ChiNext index [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices, except for the ChiNext index, has also decreased, with most industry volatilities below the 80th percentile [2][32].   Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, computer, and automotive sectors have shown high research activity, with an increase in research heat for media, electricity and utilities, food and beverage, and non-ferrous sectors [3][43].   Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 have been adjusted downwards, while sectors such as finance, oil and petrochemicals, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and computers have seen upward adjustments [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices for 2025/2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext index have been lowered [4][23].   Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a net selling trend, with a notable increase in the buy/sell ratio in the communication, electronics, and automotive sectors [5][32]. - Northbound trading has primarily net bought in the electronic, computer, and pharmaceutical sectors, while net selling occurred in military, communication, media, and retail sectors [5][33].   Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has dropped to a near three-week low, with significant net buying in the electric new energy, non-ferrous, and finance sectors, while net selling occurred in the computer, military, and electronics sectors [6][38]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like building materials, automotive, and non-ferrous metals continues to rise [6][38].   Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, primarily in TMT, non-ferrous, and electric new energy sectors, while reducing positions in retail, finance, and military sectors [7][46]. - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, particularly in non-bank, non-ferrous, and chemical sectors, while net redemptions occurred in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computers [7][53].
 量化观市:微盘茅指数轮动信号切换,微盘股还应该持有吗?
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-08 08:18
 Quantitative Models and Construction   Macro Timing Model - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic signals to determine equity allocation levels, focusing on economic growth and monetary liquidity signals[4][41] - **Model Construction Process**:    - The model assigns weights to economic growth and monetary liquidity signals   - Economic growth signal strength is derived from macroeconomic indicators   - Monetary liquidity signal strength is based on liquidity conditions in the market   - The final equity allocation recommendation is a weighted combination of these signals   - Example: For September, economic growth signal strength was 100%, monetary liquidity signal strength was 50%, leading to a recommended equity allocation of 75%[41][42] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is described as providing a dynamic and systematic approach to equity allocation, with a focus on macroeconomic conditions[41]  ---   Quantitative Factors and Construction   Equity Selection Factors - **Factor Categories**: Eight major categories, including size, value, growth, reversal, quality, technical, volatility, and consensus expectations[46][60] - **Factor Construction Process**:   - **Size Factor**: Constructed using the logarithm of market capitalization (LN_MktCap)[60]   - **Value Factor**: Includes metrics like book-to-price ratio (BP_LR) and earnings-to-price ratio (EP_FTTM)[60]   - **Growth Factor**: Includes metrics like quarterly operating income growth (OperatingIncome_SQ_Chg1Y)[60]   - **Reversal Factor**: Based on price changes over different time horizons (e.g., Price_Chg60D)[61]   - **Quality Factor**: Includes metrics like return on equity (ROE_FTTM) and gross margin (GrossMargin_TTM)[61]   - **Technical Factor**: Includes metrics like 20-day turnover rate (Turnover_Mean_20D)[61]   - **Volatility Factor**: Includes residual volatility from CAPM and Fama-French models (IV_CAPM, IV_FF)[61]   - **Consensus Expectations Factor**: Includes metrics like changes in expected EPS over the past 3 months (EPS_FTTM_Chg3M)[61] - **Factor Evaluation**: Factors like value, low volatility, and technical indicators showed stronger performance in the past week, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks[46][47]   Convertible Bond Factors - **Factor Categories**: Five convertible bond selection factors, including equity-related factors and valuation factors[57] - **Factor Construction Process**:   - **Equity-Related Factors**: Derived from the relationship between convertible bonds and their underlying stocks, such as consensus expectations and growth metrics[57]   - **Valuation Factor**: Includes metrics like parity-to-floor premium rate[57] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive returns were observed for factors like consensus expectations, growth, financial quality, and value in the past week[57][58]  ---   Backtesting Results   Macro Timing Model - **Performance**:   - Year-to-date return: 11.75%   - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 22.98%   - Model's excess return: -11.23%[41][44]   Equity Selection Factors - **IC Mean**:   - Size Factor: 20.93% (All A-shares), 19.09% (CSI 500), 19.10% (CSI 1000)[47]   - Value Factor: 11.11% (All A-shares), 12.94% (CSI 500), 17.07% (CSI 1000)[47]   - Technical Factor: 8.58% (All A-shares), 18.71% (CSI 500), 20.23% (CSI 1000)[47] - **Multi-Long-Short Returns**:   - Size Factor: 36.13% (All A-shares), 6.17% (CSI 500), 5.73% (CSI 1000)[47]   - Value Factor: 24.38% (All A-shares), 1.72% (CSI 500), 13.11% (CSI 1000)[47]   Convertible Bond Factors - **Multi-Long-Short Returns**:   - Consensus Expectations: 1.4   - Growth: 1.3   - Financial Quality: 1.2   - Value: 1.1   - Valuation: 1.0[58][59]
 量化行业风格轮动及ETF策略(25年9月期):维持中盘成长,聚焦周期和消费
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-08 08:07
 Core Insights - The report maintains a focus on mid-cap growth, emphasizing cyclical and consumer sectors, particularly real estate, agriculture, construction, and food and beverage, driven by fundamentals and price-volume dynamics [3][27] - The industry ETF portfolio includes six ETFs, with notable performance metrics indicating varying returns and tracking errors across different time frames [3][30] - The quantitative style rotation model favors the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices, reflecting a mid-cap growth style, with CSI 500 showing relatively reasonable valuations [3][32]   Industry Style Rotation Model - The industry rotation strategy has evolved to a bi-weekly frequency to capture more effective signals, incorporating both fundamental and price-volume factors [4][24] - The latest model identifies real estate, agriculture, construction, food and beverage, media, and non-ferrous metals as preferred sectors, with a focus on both fundamental and price-volume resonance [27][39] - Historical performance shows the rotation model consistently outperforms major benchmarks, achieving excess returns between 5% and 21% [4][39]   ETF Fund Configuration - The recommended ETF fund configuration for September 2025 emphasizes cyclical and consumer sectors, reflecting a diversified approach amid unclear market leadership [3][29] - The selected ETFs include Southern China Securities Real Estate ETF, Fortune Agricultural Theme ETF, Guotai Junan Construction Materials ETF, Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF, GF Media ETF, and Southern Non-ferrous Metals ETF [3][30]   Market Review and Fund Flow - The overall market environment is characterized by increased trading activity and a rise in risk appetite, with a significant increase in monthly trading volume [10][21] - The report notes a positive impact on quantitative strategies due to the current market conditions, with a focus on capturing effective signals through enhanced frequency in trading strategies [10][39]
 数说公募主动权益基金2025年半年报:机构资金向头部聚焦,市场活跃、基金换手提升
 SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-05 15:22
 1. Report Title and Information - The report is titled "Fund Analysis Special Report (In - depth): Counting the Semi - annual Report of Public Active Equity Funds in 2025 - Institutional Funds Focus on the Top, Market Activity and Fund Turnover Increase" [1] - The analysts are Wang Ziwei and Wang Dandan, and the report was released on September 5, 2025 [1]   2. Core View - In the first half of 2025, the A - share market recovered and became more active, but the total share of active equity funds decreased compared with last year. The proportion of institutional holdings increased, while that of individual holdings decreased slightly. Both individual and institutional investor funds were significantly concentrated in top - scale funds, with individual investors preferring larger - scale funds more than institutions [2]   3. Summary by Catalog   3.1 Holder Structure  3.1.1 Share/Proportion Changes - In the first half of 2025, the total share of active equity funds decreased compared with last year. The proportion of institutional holdings increased, and that of individual holdings decreased slightly. By the end of the first half of 2025, the institutional share of active equity funds was 424.585 billion shares, accounting for 15.51%, and the individual share was 2313.5 billion shares, accounting for 84.49%. The institutional holding ratio increased by 1.78% compared with the end of 2024 and 0.58% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. Among different investment categories, the ordinary stock - type funds had the highest institutional holding ratio at 23.59%, and the balanced hybrid - equity - oriented funds had the lowest at 11.50% [17]  3.1.2 Institutional/Individual Fund Distribution - In the first half of 2025, both individual and institutional investor funds were significantly concentrated in top - scale funds. By mid - 2025, 37.05% of institutional funds were concentrated in the top 5% of funds by scale, with the proportion increasing by 2.51% compared with the end of 2024 and 11.38% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. 38.16% of individual funds were concentrated in the top 5% of funds by scale, with the proportion decreasing by 0.66% compared with the end of 2024 but increasing by 1.27% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. Individual investors preferred larger - scale funds [22]   3.2 Institutional Positioning  3.2.1 Funds with Larger Holding Shares - As of the end of the first half of 2025, among the top ten ordinary stock - type funds held by institutions, 8 were increased in holdings and 2 were decreased. Among the partial - equity hybrid funds, 9 were increased and 1 were decreased. Among the flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds, 7 were increased and 3 were decreased. The ordinary stock - type, partial - equity hybrid, and flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds with the largest institutional holdings were "Invesco Great Wall Research Selection", "Changxin Jinli Trend", and "China Europe Dividend Premium", with holding shares of 3.465 billion, 9.571 billion, and 4.383 billion respectively, and the share changes in the past six months were 669 million, - 2.143 billion, and 2 billion respectively [26]  3.2.2 Funds with Larger Increased Holding Shares - In the first half of 2025, the ordinary stock - type fund with the largest increase in institutional holdings was "Fullgoal Consumption Selection 30" managed by Zhou Wenbo, with an increase of 1.755 billion shares. The partial - equity hybrid fund with the largest increase was "Fullgoal Steady Growth" managed by Fan Yan, with an increase of 5.108 billion shares. The flexible - allocation equity - oriented fund with the largest increase was "China Europe Dividend Premium" managed by Lan Xiaokang, with an increase of 2 billion shares [31][34][36]  3.2.3 Small - and Medium - Sized Funds with Faster - Rising Proportions - Among small - sized funds with a scale between 100 million and 500 million, the top ten funds with the fastest - rising institutional holding ratios were "Haitong Quantitative Forward", "Changxin Huizhi Quantitative Stock Selection", etc. Among small - sized funds with a scale between 500 million and 1 billion, the top ten funds with the fastest - rising institutional holding ratios were "China Europe High - end Equipment", "GF Balanced Growth", etc. [38][40]   3.3 FOF Positioning  3.3.1 Funds with Larger Holding Market Values - As of mid - 2025, the active partial - equity funds with the largest FOF holding market values were "Dacheng Gaoxin" with a holding market value of 896 million yuan. Other top - ten funds included "Fullgoal Steady Growth" (773 million yuan), "Xingquan Business Model Preferred" (568 million yuan), etc. [44]  3.3.2 Funds with Larger Increased Holding Shares - From the perspective of the share changes of FOF - held funds in the latest period, "Fullgoal Steady Growth" had the largest increase in FOF holdings, with an increase of 638 million shares. Other funds with large increases included "E Fund Strategic Emerging Industries", "E Fund Active Growth", etc. [47]  3.3.3 Funds with a Larger Number of Holders - As of mid - 2025, "Dacheng Gaoxin" was held by 169 FOFs. The second - and third - ranked funds were "Fullgoal Steady Growth" managed by Fan Yan and "Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen" managed by Nong Bingli, held by 132 and 88 FOFs respectively. Other top - ten funds included "Dongfanghong JD Big Data", "Boda Growth Zhihang", etc. [50]   3.4 Shareholding Characteristics  3.4.1 Fund Turnover - In the first half of 2025, the average turnover of all active partial - equity funds was 2.12, higher than that in the first half of 2024 (2.08) and the second half of 2024 (1.93). Among different types of active equity funds, the flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds had the highest turnover in the first half of 2025 at 2.26, followed by partial - equity hybrid funds and balanced hybrid - equity - oriented funds with turnovers of 2.11 and 1.98 respectively. The ordinary stock - type funds had the lowest turnover at 1.92 [53]  3.4.2 Market Value/Plate Changes - In terms of market - value style, active partial - equity funds were mainly allocated to small - and medium - cap stocks. By the end of the first half of 2025, stocks with a market value below 30 billion accounted for the highest proportion at 42.71%. Compared with the end of 2024, the proportion of large - cap stocks increased, while that of small - and medium - cap stocks decreased. By the end of the first half of 2025, among all the holdings of active partial - equity funds, the technology sector accounted for the highest proportion, and the financial sector accounted for the lowest. Compared with the end of 2024, the technology sector had the largest increase in market - value proportion, and the manufacturing sector had the largest decrease [64]  3.4.3 Industry Allocation Proportion Changes - At the sub - industry level, in the first half of 2025, the industries with a relatively large increase in shareholding market - value proportion were pharmaceutical biology, media, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance. The proportions of the power equipment, food and beverage, and household appliance industries decreased significantly. As of mid - 2025, the top three industries held by active equity funds were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, with their shareholding market - value proportions accounting for 17.03%, 12.12%, and 7.53% respectively [66]  3.4.4 "Hidden Heavy Positions" - In the first half of 2025, among the stocks with a heavy - position market value ranked below 50 in the second - quarter heavy - position holdings of active equity funds, the stock with the highest non - heavy - position market value calculated according to all shareholding details was Dongshan Precision, with a total shareholding market value of 922.9 million yuan, of which 380.2 million yuan was non - heavy - position holding. Among the stocks with a heavy - position market value ranked below 100, the stock with the highest non - heavy - position market value was Naxinwei [69]  3.4.5 Sub - Industry Changes - From the perspective of the market value of holdings in Shenwan primary industries, in the technology sector, the allocation proportions of the electronics and media industries increased significantly, and those of the communication and computer industries increased slightly. In the large - consumption sector, the pharmaceutical biology industry was booming in the first half of the year, while traditional consumption - related fields were reduced in holdings. In the cycle - manufacturing sector, except for a slight increase in the proportions of the national defense and military industry and the machinery equipment industry, other industries decreased, with the power equipment industry having the most significant decrease. In terms of resource products, the market - value proportion of the non - ferrous metals industry increased significantly [71][77]
