2024年12月20日 行业周报 证券研究报告 买入(维持评级) 分析师： 满在朋（执业 S1130522030002） 分析师：秦亚男（执业 S1130522030005） ginvanan@gizg.com.cn 行情回顾 申万行业板块年初至今表现 机械细分板块上周表现 . 图表 4: 机械细分板块年初至今表现 图表 6: 我国工业机器人产量及当月同比 . 图表 9: 图表 10: 本周板块表现：上周（2024/12/16-2024/12/20）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下降 2.27%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 14；同期沪深 300 指数下降 0.14%。2024 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 9.36%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 14；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 14.47%。 核心观点： 智元机器人正式量产商用，机器人产业催化不断。12 月 16 日，科创板日报了解到，智元正式开启通用机器人 商用量产，用于搬运、组装等工作。截至 12 月 15 日，其机器人累计产量已有 962 台，年底计划产量将接近 10 00 台。我们认为，年底至于 25 年是人形机器人实 ...

金属材料组 分析师：李超（执业 S1130522120001） 分析师：王钦扬（执业 S1130523120001） lichao3@gizq.com.cn 行情综述&投资建议 本周（12.16-12.20）沪深 300 指数上涨 0.41%，其中有色指数下跌 1.76%。个股层面，本周鑫科材料、西部材料涨幅 较大，分别上涨 34.20%、16.16%；永杉锂业、华阳新材跌幅较大，分别下跌 10.54%、8.67%。 稀土：氧化镨钕本周价格为 39.23 万元/吨，环比下降 4.29%。氧化镝本周价格 153.0 万元/吨，环比下降 7.83%。近 期上游企业供应稳定，据百川盈孚预计 12 月氧化镨钕产量仍保持在 8000-8300 吨。近期价格下跌，或为主流企业经 营策略发生变化，通过价格波动，调整库存水平；预计后市价格下跌空间有限。缅甸矿作为重稀土镝、铽，轻稀土镨 钕供给的重要一环，新增资源费叠加供给扰动频繁，有望抬升行业成本曲线，从而抬升稀土价格中枢；持续关注缅甸 局势。我们测算 10 月国内高端磁材消费领域需求增速分别环比/当月同比+3%/+37%，旺季需求持续兑现。我们测算若 2025 年稀土配额增 ...

Company Overview - The company is a high-end domestic cosmetics brand founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping in 2000, positioning itself as a luxury brand with a complete product line including makeup, skincare, and makeup training [24][25] - As of 1H24, the company has 387 SKUs across two brands: MAOGEPING (luxury) and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng (mass market) [25] - In 2023, the company ranked 9th in China's high-end makeup market with a 3.9% market share, making it the only domestic brand in the top 10 [24][25] Financial Performance - The company achieved strong revenue growth of 58% YoY in 2023, with net profit increasing by 88% YoY [31] - In 1H24, revenue and net profit both grew by 41% YoY, maintaining strong momentum [31] - Gross margin and net margin remained at industry-leading levels of 80%+ and 20%+ respectively, showing an upward trend since 2022 [31][33] - Online revenue CAGR reached 49% from 2021 to 2023, with online sales accounting for 49.1% of total revenue in 1H24 [43][174] Product Strategy Makeup Line - The makeup line is based on light and shadow aesthetics and oriental aesthetics, with a strong competitive advantage in base makeup products [44][53] - Key products include the Fish Roe Cushion and Water Cream Foundation, with the Fish Roe Cushion ranking top 3 in Tmall's concealer and highlighter categories from 2021 to 2024 [132][136] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in foundation products, with its Tmall foundation category ranking rising to 5th in 2024 [132] Skincare Line - The skincare line focuses on pre-makeup care and post-makeup repair, with 50 SKUs as of 1H24 [143] - The Fish Roe Mask has become a star product, generating retail sales of 600+ million yuan in 2023 and 450+ million yuan in 1H24 [157] - Skincare revenue grew 50% YoY in 2023 and 35% YoY in 1H24, accounting for 41% of total revenue [150] Channel Strategy Offline Channels - The company operates 372 self-owned counters in over 120 cities as of 1H24, ranking second among all beauty brands in China [161][163] - Offline channels maintain high customer loyalty, with member repurchase rates reaching 32.8% in 2023, significantly higher than the industry average [166] - Same-store sales grew 36% YoY in 2023 and 18% YoY in 1H24, driven by professional makeup services and customer experience [169] Online Channels - Online sales grew rapidly, with revenue increasing from 529 million yuan in 2021 to 1.18 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 49% [174] - Douyin sales surpassed Tmall in 2023, reaching 1.19 billion yuan in 1-11M24, an 85% YoY increase [177][182] - The company has built a balanced live-streaming ecosystem, with brand self-broadcasting and KOL collaborations driving growth [183] Marketing Strategy - The company leverages Mao Geping's personal IP and professional makeup techniques to create viral marketing campaigns, such as the collaboration with fashion blogger "Late Night Teacher Xu" in 2019 [189] - The brand has established a strong presence on social media platforms, with 909k followers on Bilibili, 895k on Xiaohongshu, and 668.9k on Tmall flagship store [190] - The company emphasizes educational content, providing free makeup tutorials and professional makeup services to enhance customer experience and drive conversions [184] Industry Trends - The facial makeup market in China reached 31.2 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for over 50% of the total makeup market, with an expected CAGR of 8.4% from 2023 to 2028 [43][119] - Domestic brands are gaining market share in base makeup categories, with makeup artist IP brands like Mao Geping and Caitang showing strong growth [122][123] - The skincare market is shifting towards premiumization, with high-end products like the Fish Roe Mask meeting the demand for luxury skincare alternatives [157]

图表 41： 关税下降后美国自我国进口 7610/7615 增长（万吨）....................................... 16 图表 46： 23 年墨西哥自我国进口铝材 49 万吨（万吨）.............................................. 18 图表 50： 关税后墨西哥自我国进口其他铝材和铝制品变化不大（万吨） ............................... 19 图表 55： 墨西哥对铝材进口需求较大（万吨） ..................................................... 21 图表 60： 加拿大原铝显著净出口（万吨） ......................................................... 22 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 17 扫码获取更多服务 行业专题研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

买入（首次评级） 投资逻辑： 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 231211240311240611240911241211 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 海澜之家 沪深300 1、折扣，质价比消费的深刻变革 ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.3、TJX: 线下品牌折扣集合店的隐形王者 ... 3.2、独特商业模式迁移新商业合作. 4、盈利预测与投资建议. 5、风险提示 图表 2: 前言 1）折扣零售向纵深化演绎，奥莱逆势领跑。美日折扣零售诞生于 经济下行期，根据智研咨询，2023 年中国折扣规模 1.8 万亿，占 比社零总额 3.8%，供（滞销）需（不足）双驱带动质价比成为主 流消费趋势。本轮折扣零售始于零食量贩店，逐渐向传统零售深刻 演绎。根据奥莱领袖，2023 年中国拥有 239 家奥莱，销售额 1600 亿元，占比折扣零售 9%，同比增长近 10%，领跑其他零售业态。通 过唯品会、TJX、荟品仓、寺库等正反面案例复盘，我们认为奥莱 作为 ...

百多力、库克、戈尔、迈迪顶峰、美敦力、健源医疗6家未中选 静脉支架 特别声明： 2024 年 12 月 19 日，国家组织高值医用耗材联合采购办公室发布《国家组织人工耳蜗类及外周血管支架类医用耗材 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 2 若国金证券以外的任何机构或个人发送本报告，则由该机构或个人为此发送行为承担全部责任。本报告不构成国金证券向发送本报告机构或个人的收件人提供 投资建议，国金证券不为此承担任何责任。 级) 事件 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 非下肢动脉支架 来源：国家组织高值医用耗材联合采购办公室，国金证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------|-------|-----------|--------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------| | 厂商 | | 分组 | 国产/外资 | 人 ...

股票投资策略简报 策略组 分析师：张弛（执业 S1130523070003） 联系人：王超特 zhangchi1@gizq.com.cn 当地时间 12 月 18 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率区间下调 25bps 至 4.25%-4.50%，这是自 2024 年 9 月以来的连 续第三次降息。2022 年 3 月至 2023 年 7 月，美联储累计加息 11 次，幅度达 525 个基点，而后连续八次会议保持利率目标 区间不变。 警惕过度交易"鹰派"利率路径指引，海外景气放缓风险仍存 美联储 2024 年 12 月会议将联邦基金目标利率区间下调 25bps 至 4.25%-4.50%，基本符合市场预期，不过此次会议再 度出现了与会成员投票"不一致"的情况，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克(Hammack)希望保持利率水平不变，此前 9 月份会议中 美联储理事鲍曼(Bowman)倾向于降息 25bps，也与最终的 50bps 降息决定不相一致。本次会议声明整体变动不大，在考虑对 联邦基金利率目标范围新调整时，新增了"程度和时机"(the extent and the timing of)。更值得关注的是，此次会议 更新 ...

2024年12月17日 来源:公司年报、国金证券研究所 建发股份 (600153.SH) 买入(维持评级) 公司点评 证券研究报告 收购增厚利润，提升股东回报 事件 2024年12月17日,公司公告:一是以 30.66 亿元收购建发房产 10%股权，二是增强股东回报规划。 点评 收购建发房产股权有助于增厚公司利润。公司拟以评估价 30.66 亿元收购控股股东建发集团持有的控股子公司建发房产 10%股权, 本次交易完成后,公司将持有建发房产的股权将由 54.654%升至 64.654%。本次收购有助于增强公司自身的盈利能力,增厚归母净 利润,并推进建发集团逐步履行历史遗留的向公司转让建发房产 少数股权的承诺。 收购定价合理,体现公司诚意。 截至 10月 31 日,建发房产扣除 永续债后的归母净资产为 285. 29 亿元,公司本次收购的评估价为 306.63 亿元,增值率 7.48%,对应的收购 PB 为 1.07 倍。我们认 为本次收购的估值水平较低,定价较为合理,体现出公司维护中 小股东利益的诚意。 提升股东回报,股息率具备吸引力。本次收购事项完成后,公司 拟发布"培强股东回报规划",拟针对 2024年度和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye (000858 SZ) with a current PE valuation of 17 1x for 2024 15 9x for 2025 and 14 6x for 2026 [2] Core Views - Wuliangye has defined 2024 as the "Year of Marketing Execution" focusing on product innovation channel optimization and market expansion [2] - Product innovation includes the launch of 45-degree and 68-degree Wuliangye as well as the Classic Wuliangye series and over ten cultural products [2] - Channel optimization saw the addition of 138 specialty stores 5 experience stores and 490 He Mei collection stores with a 18 2% YoY increase in terminal outlets [2] - Market expansion efforts included nearly 30 000 banquet events serving over 6 million people with a 30% YoY growth in banquet activities [2] - For 2025 the company plans to enhance marketing execution with a focus on product sales channel quality and service capabilities [2] - Product strategy will emphasize balanced pricing and ensuring reasonable profits for distributors [2] - Channel strategy will focus on selecting and supporting high-quality dealers with plans to add over 120 specialty stores [2] - The company will also optimize channel investments and strengthen supervision to prevent policy discounting [2] - Wuliangye has announced a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2024 to 2026 with a minimum of RMB 20 billion in dividends [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 7 6% in 2024 7 0% in 2025 and 8 0% in 2026 reaching RMB 89 627 million RMB 95 893 million and RMB 103 535 million respectively [2][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 8 0% in 2024 7 5% in 2025 and 9 0% in 2026 reaching RMB 32 619 million RMB 35 063 million and RMB 38 227 million respectively [2][5] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 8 40 in 2024 RMB 9 03 in 2025 and RMB 9 85 in 2026 [2][5] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is positive with 6 "Buy" ratings in the past week 17 in the past month and 220 in the past six months [13] - The overall market rating score is 1 14 for the past week 1 11 for the past month and 1 01 for the past six months indicating a strong "Buy" consensus [13]

晨讯 产品组 编辑 白晓琦（执业 S11305240800063) baixiaoqi@gjzq.com.cn 特朗普政府的可能抉择:弱势美元 VS 强势美元; 主动量化研究（3） ChatGPT 思维链推理机构调研选股策略 行情回顾 图表1：12 月 18 日主要市场指数行情回顾 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------|------------------------|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|-------------------| | 2024/12/18 | | 上证指数 深证成指 北证 | 50 | 科创 50 | 创业板指 | | 中小综指 恒生指数 | | 收盘点数 | 3,382.21 | 10,584.27 | 1,132.61 | 981.51 | 2,202.14 | 11,391.59 | 19,864.55 | | 当日涨跌幅 | 0.62% | 0.44% | -0.60% | 1.47% | 0.0 ...