证券板块 券商经营环境进一步改善。交易活跃背景下业绩有望延续高增，上交所数据显示，2026 年 1 月 A 股新开户 491.58 万 户，环比增长 89%，同比 2025 年 1 月的 157.0 万户增长 213%；1 月日均股基成交额同比增长 157%至 3.6 万亿元，日 均两融余额同比增长 47%至 2.7 万亿元，IPO 向常态化恢复。预计交易层面 ETF 净流出将缓解、再融资影响可控，券 商的压制因素逐步解除，当前估值性价比极高。当前板块 PB（LF）估值 1.36 倍，处于十年 34%分位数。 投资建议：建议关注三条主线：（1）强烈推荐估值及业绩错配程度较大的优质券商，重点关注国泰海通；建议关注 AH 溢价率较高、有收并购主题的券商；建议关注短期受益于科技股上市的券商。（2）四川双马：科技赛道占优，创投业 务有望受益，布局基因治疗赛道新标的，深化生物医药产业链。公司管理基金的已投项目：屹唐股份、西安奕材、沐 曦股份（科创板已上市）、奕斯伟计算以及群核科技（港交所 IPO 申报）、邦德激光、丽豪半导体等上市进程加快；公 司参投基金已投：傅利叶已完成多轮融资，奇瑞汽车港交所已上市，慧算账向港交所递 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous with brands actively opening new stores, while the tea beverage sector is experiencing slight pressure due to competition and subsidy reductions [3][14] - E-commerce continues to face challenges, with a projected online retail sales growth of 5.2% by 2025, influenced by the domestic consumption environment [3][13] - Music streaming platforms are identified as high-quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued investment interest in subscription services [3][17] - The virtual asset market is under pressure with limited capital inflow and regulatory scrutiny impacting cryptocurrency prices [3][24] - The automotive service market shows a decline in market entries and production value, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring [3][33] - The AI and cloud sectors are seeing increased capital expenditures, but concerns about investment returns and cash flow persist [3][42] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee: The industry maintains high prosperity with brands like Luckin Coffee actively expanding, while price competition is easing [3][14] - E-commerce: The sector is under pressure, with a projected online retail sales figure of 130,923 billion yuan by 2025, representing 26.1% of total retail sales [3][13] 1.2 Platform & Technology - Streaming Platforms: The media index fell by 9.24%, with companies like Netflix and Spotify facing challenges [3][17] - Virtual Assets: The global cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped to 22,339 billion dollars, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declining significantly [3][24] - Automotive Services: The market is experiencing a decline in entries and production value, with a year-on-year decrease of 6% in market entries [3][33] - AI & Cloud: Increased capital expenditures are noted, but concerns about returns and cash flow remain [3][42]

本周行情综述 行业概况：基本面方面，基于钢厂铁矿进口库存继续增加+钢企钢厂库存小幅增加，判断钢厂处于原料备货阶段末期+ 钢材生产环节初期。上游方面，钢厂春季原料补库基本结束，BHP 谈判妥协后产品有望进入市场流通的预期下，铁矿 价格下行；印尼动力煤出口暂停激发国内焦煤期货做多情绪，考虑到我国自印尼进口焦煤敞口极低，且动力煤和冶金 煤替代关系弱，预计焦煤基本面维持底部不变。钢企端，在短流程支撑边际成本的情况下，本周钢企价差修复，环比 +15.7 元，目前吨亏 22.3 元。据 Mysteel 统计，钢企盈利在 39.4%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳定；行情方面，宽基 EFF 大额卖出冲击商品股，钢铁受地产政策预期影响在后半周迎来修复，本周中信钢铁指数涨幅-3.0%，跑输大盘 1.7%。 钢铁：本周京津冀地区热轧板卷市场震荡下行，调整幅度为-20 元/吨，现全国均价为 3284 元/吨，周环比下调 15 元/ 吨。本周京津冀中厚板普中板 14-20mm 现报价 3210-3340 元/吨。调研数据：本周 Mysteel 样本热轧板卷钢厂产能利 用率为 78.98%，周环比减少 0.02%；周产量为 309.16 万吨， ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations for significant growth in capital expenditures from major companies like Amazon and Google, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1][26]. Core Insights - Amazon raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $200 billion, a more than 50% increase from $131 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand signals in AI hardware and cloud services [1]. - Google's parent company, Alphabet, expects its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double its 2025 spending, reflecting robust growth in its cloud business [1]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to lead to a significant increase in ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) production from companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft, with a projected explosive growth in 2026-2027 [1][4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Capital Expenditure and Demand - Amazon's AWS cloud division saw a 24% year-over-year growth, with a backlog of $244 billion, indicating strong enterprise investment in AI and core cloud services [1]. - Google's cloud revenue reached $17.7 billion in Q4, a 48% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for enterprise-level AI products [1]. 2. AI Hardware and ASIC Demand - The report highlights the strong demand for AI-related hardware, with Amazon's self-developed Trainium chip showing a 30%-40% cost advantage over similar GPUs, leading to significant revenue potential [1]. - Companies are expected to ramp up production of new generation ASIC chips, with Amazon and Google entering a phase of increased demand and production [1][4]. 3. PCB and Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, with companies expanding production capacity due to strong orders driven by AI applications [4][26]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is also expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in light of global supply chain challenges [23][25]. 4. Specific Company Insights - Companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for semiconductor equipment and materials, with a focus on domestic production and technological advancements [28][25]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential for companies involved in AI-related PCB manufacturing, with expectations for sustained high growth in performance and revenue [4][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, particularly focusing on price increase chains and structural economic growth [3][14]. Core Insights - The building materials sector is currently experiencing a price increase chain, with fiberglass leading the way due to a significant price rise in ordinary electronic cloth, which is expected to enhance profitability in the fiberglass sector [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Fifteen Five" plan, suggesting that March-April 2023 could see a strong start for the sector, recommending continued investment during the pre-holiday off-season [3][14]. - Key sectors to watch include electronic cloth, domestic coatings/waterproofing, domestic cement, and domestic glass, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [3][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The building materials sector is performing well, driven by price increases, particularly in fiberglass and consumer building materials, which resonate with downstream real estate data [3][14]. - The report ranks confidence in structural economic growth, external demand, and internal demand, with a focus on specific sub-sectors [3][14]. Market Performance - The building materials index decreased by 0.67% this week, with notable performances in glass manufacturing and consumer building materials [21]. - The average national cement price is reported at 342 RMB/ton, down 53 RMB/ton year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 24.6% [17][31]. Price Changes - The national average price for float glass is reported at 1154.49 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.69 RMB/ton [17][44]. - The report notes that the average price for electronic cloth has increased significantly, enhancing profitability expectations for the fiberglass sector [3][14]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Giant, Keda Manufacturing, and Shengfeng Cement, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][14].

Policy Insights - The implementation of the second-hand housing acquisition policy in Shanghai indicates a shift in local government strategies, signaling a bottoming out of prices for older properties in core areas[2]. - The model of acquiring second-hand homes in Shanghai is expected to be promoted in other key cities, laying the foundation for price stabilization of older properties in core urban areas[2]. Market Trends - In the new housing market, the overall transaction volume in 47 cities remains stable, with a year-on-year decline of 20.6% compared to the same period last year, indicating a seasonal downturn[5]. - For second-hand homes, transaction volumes in 22 cities showed a seasonal decline of 2.7% week-on-week, with an 11.3% decrease compared to the same period last year, although the decline is narrowing[7]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include a greater-than-expected decline in housing prices, exceeding anticipated debt risks for real estate companies, and a macroeconomic downturn that could be more severe than expected[3][13].

风险提示 本周观点 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店；库迪结束 9.9 元活动，整体咖啡 行业价格竞争趋缓，但需关注开店带来的阶段性稀释效应。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成 为引流品，补贴以相对趋缓的节奏退坡，数据依旧具备韧性。 电商：持续承压。2025 年实物商品网上零售额 130923 亿元，增长 5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 26.1%， 受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商表现平淡；但关注 AI 带来的电商广告推荐提效。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放， 我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台，估值具备性价比。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：加密市场催化有限，资本流入疲软，币价承压。本周中国人民银行、中国证监会等八 部门联合发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》；中国证监会公布〔2026〕1 号文件：《 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of significant growth in capital expenditures from major companies like Amazon and Google, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1][26]. Core Insights - Amazon raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $200 billion, a more than 50% increase from $131 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand signals in AI hardware and cloud services [1]. - Google's parent company, Alphabet, expects its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double its 2025 spending, reflecting robust growth in its cloud business [1]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to lead to a significant increase in ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) numbers from major tech companies, with a projected explosive growth in 2026-2027 [1][4]. - The semiconductor and PCB (Printed Circuit Board) sectors are anticipated to benefit from the strong demand for AI, with many companies in these areas experiencing high order volumes and expansion plans [4][26]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI and Cloud Infrastructure - Amazon's AWS cloud division saw a 24% year-over-year growth, with a backlog of $244 billion, indicating strong enterprise investment in AI and cloud services [1]. - Google's cloud revenue reached $17.7 billion in Q4, a 48% increase year-over-year, driven by strong demand for enterprise-level AI products [1]. Section 2: Semiconductor and PCB Industry - The PCB industry is maintaining high demand due to the growth in automotive and industrial applications, with expectations of price increases for copper-clad laminates [6]. - AI-driven demand is expected to boost PCB prices and volumes, with companies actively expanding production to meet this demand [4][26]. Section 3: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is seeing a continuous expansion of AI applications, particularly in the Apple supply chain, with innovations in foldable devices and AI glasses [5]. - The demand for AI-enabled devices is expected to drive significant growth in the market, with various manufacturers exploring new product categories [5]. Section 4: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with significant capital expenditures expected to support the growth of advanced manufacturing processes [23][25]. - The materials sector is also poised for improvement, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in response to international supply chain challenges [25][34]. Section 5: Company-Specific Insights - Companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for semiconductor equipment and materials, with strong growth prospects in their respective markets [28][30]. - Three Ring Group is focusing on high-capacity MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) products, which are expected to see increased demand due to AI applications [33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the steel industry, with expectations of price stability in the near term [11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a phase where raw material inventory is increasing, and steel production is at an early stage. The expectation is that iron ore prices will decline due to the completion of spring raw material replenishment by steel mills [11][12]. - The profitability of steel companies is reported at 39.4%, indicating a stable bottom for the steel industry fundamentals. However, the market sentiment is weak as demand is expected to decrease with the approach of the Spring Festival [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in the utilization rate of hot-rolled steel mills to 78.98%, with a slight reduction in weekly production and an increase in inventory levels [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is experiencing a slight recovery in price margins, with a week-on-week increase of 15.7 CNY, although companies are still facing losses of 22.3 CNY per ton [11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 3.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.7% [11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled steel prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have adjusted downwards by 20 CNY/ton, with a national average price of 3284 CNY/ton [12]. - The total inventory of medium-thick plates in the country is reported at 2.55 million tons, with a decrease of 2.19 million tons from the previous week [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The average price index for 62% Australian iron ore in January was 106.05 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6% from December [14]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron ore inventory at steel mills, with a total inventory increase of 11.38 million tons compared to the end of the previous month [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - The operating rate of blast furnaces is reported at 79.53%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53 percentage points [13]. - The daily average pig iron production is 2.2858 million tons, which is an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous week [13].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [1][14] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons [1][14] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is expected to drop by 28.52% to 38.36% next week due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][14] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [2][15] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 258,500 tons [2][15] - The overall aluminum processing operating rate recorded 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant divergence within the sector [2][15] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while the 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88% [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks [3][16] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, indicating rising concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [3][16] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 1.20% this week, with December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand for rare earths [4][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 11.98% this week, driven by tight supply conditions and increased strategic reserves in the U.S. [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" by U.S. lawmakers is expected to elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - Recommended companies include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4][38] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [4][53] - Total lithium carbonate production this week was 20,700 tons, reflecting a slight decrease [4][53] - Market sentiment remains cautious as downstream purchasing activity is expected to slow down as inventory levels stabilize [4][53] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [5][54] - The market for cobalt intermediates is characterized by limited transactions, with prices holding steady amid geopolitical supply concerns [5][54] - Long-term structural shortages in raw materials may support future price increases [5][54]