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数说公募主动权益基金2025年半年报:机构资金向头部聚焦,市场活跃、基金换手提升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-05 15:22
1. Report Title and Information - The report is titled "Fund Analysis Special Report (In - depth): Counting the Semi - annual Report of Public Active Equity Funds in 2025 - Institutional Funds Focus on the Top, Market Activity and Fund Turnover Increase" [1] - The analysts are Wang Ziwei and Wang Dandan, and the report was released on September 5, 2025 [1] 2. Core View - In the first half of 2025, the A - share market recovered and became more active, but the total share of active equity funds decreased compared with last year. The proportion of institutional holdings increased, while that of individual holdings decreased slightly. Both individual and institutional investor funds were significantly concentrated in top - scale funds, with individual investors preferring larger - scale funds more than institutions [2] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Holder Structure 3.1.1 Share/Proportion Changes - In the first half of 2025, the total share of active equity funds decreased compared with last year. The proportion of institutional holdings increased, and that of individual holdings decreased slightly. By the end of the first half of 2025, the institutional share of active equity funds was 424.585 billion shares, accounting for 15.51%, and the individual share was 2313.5 billion shares, accounting for 84.49%. The institutional holding ratio increased by 1.78% compared with the end of 2024 and 0.58% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. Among different investment categories, the ordinary stock - type funds had the highest institutional holding ratio at 23.59%, and the balanced hybrid - equity - oriented funds had the lowest at 11.50% [17] 3.1.2 Institutional/Individual Fund Distribution - In the first half of 2025, both individual and institutional investor funds were significantly concentrated in top - scale funds. By mid - 2025, 37.05% of institutional funds were concentrated in the top 5% of funds by scale, with the proportion increasing by 2.51% compared with the end of 2024 and 11.38% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. 38.16% of individual funds were concentrated in the top 5% of funds by scale, with the proportion decreasing by 0.66% compared with the end of 2024 but increasing by 1.27% compared with the end of the first half of 2024. Individual investors preferred larger - scale funds [22] 3.2 Institutional Positioning 3.2.1 Funds with Larger Holding Shares - As of the end of the first half of 2025, among the top ten ordinary stock - type funds held by institutions, 8 were increased in holdings and 2 were decreased. Among the partial - equity hybrid funds, 9 were increased and 1 were decreased. Among the flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds, 7 were increased and 3 were decreased. The ordinary stock - type, partial - equity hybrid, and flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds with the largest institutional holdings were "Invesco Great Wall Research Selection", "Changxin Jinli Trend", and "China Europe Dividend Premium", with holding shares of 3.465 billion, 9.571 billion, and 4.383 billion respectively, and the share changes in the past six months were 669 million, - 2.143 billion, and 2 billion respectively [26] 3.2.2 Funds with Larger Increased Holding Shares - In the first half of 2025, the ordinary stock - type fund with the largest increase in institutional holdings was "Fullgoal Consumption Selection 30" managed by Zhou Wenbo, with an increase of 1.755 billion shares. The partial - equity hybrid fund with the largest increase was "Fullgoal Steady Growth" managed by Fan Yan, with an increase of 5.108 billion shares. The flexible - allocation equity - oriented fund with the largest increase was "China Europe Dividend Premium" managed by Lan Xiaokang, with an increase of 2 billion shares [31][34][36] 3.2.3 Small - and Medium - Sized Funds with Faster - Rising Proportions - Among small - sized funds with a scale between 100 million and 500 million, the top ten funds with the fastest - rising institutional holding ratios were "Haitong Quantitative Forward", "Changxin Huizhi Quantitative Stock Selection", etc. Among small - sized funds with a scale between 500 million and 1 billion, the top ten funds with the fastest - rising institutional holding ratios were "China Europe High - end Equipment", "GF Balanced Growth", etc. [38][40] 3.3 FOF Positioning 3.3.1 Funds with Larger Holding Market Values - As of mid - 2025, the active partial - equity funds with the largest FOF holding market values were "Dacheng Gaoxin" with a holding market value of 896 million yuan. Other top - ten funds included "Fullgoal Steady Growth" (773 million yuan), "Xingquan Business Model Preferred" (568 million yuan), etc. [44] 3.3.2 Funds with Larger Increased Holding Shares - From the perspective of the share changes of FOF - held funds in the latest period, "Fullgoal Steady Growth" had the largest increase in FOF holdings, with an increase of 638 million shares. Other funds with large increases included "E Fund Strategic Emerging Industries", "E Fund Active Growth", etc. [47] 3.3.3 Funds with a Larger Number of Holders - As of mid - 2025, "Dacheng Gaoxin" was held by 169 FOFs. The second - and third - ranked funds were "Fullgoal Steady Growth" managed by Fan Yan and "Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen" managed by Nong Bingli, held by 132 and 88 FOFs respectively. Other top - ten funds included "Dongfanghong JD Big Data", "Boda Growth Zhihang", etc. [50] 3.4 Shareholding Characteristics 3.4.1 Fund Turnover - In the first half of 2025, the average turnover of all active partial - equity funds was 2.12, higher than that in the first half of 2024 (2.08) and the second half of 2024 (1.93). Among different types of active equity funds, the flexible - allocation equity - oriented funds had the highest turnover in the first half of 2025 at 2.26, followed by partial - equity hybrid funds and balanced hybrid - equity - oriented funds with turnovers of 2.11 and 1.98 respectively. The ordinary stock - type funds had the lowest turnover at 1.92 [53] 3.4.2 Market Value/Plate Changes - In terms of market - value style, active partial - equity funds were mainly allocated to small - and medium - cap stocks. By the end of the first half of 2025, stocks with a market value below 30 billion accounted for the highest proportion at 42.71%. Compared with the end of 2024, the proportion of large - cap stocks increased, while that of small - and medium - cap stocks decreased. By the end of the first half of 2025, among all the holdings of active partial - equity funds, the technology sector accounted for the highest proportion, and the financial sector accounted for the lowest. Compared with the end of 2024, the technology sector had the largest increase in market - value proportion, and the manufacturing sector had the largest decrease [64] 3.4.3 Industry Allocation Proportion Changes - At the sub - industry level, in the first half of 2025, the industries with a relatively large increase in shareholding market - value proportion were pharmaceutical biology, media, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance. The proportions of the power equipment, food and beverage, and household appliance industries decreased significantly. As of mid - 2025, the top three industries held by active equity funds were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, with their shareholding market - value proportions accounting for 17.03%, 12.12%, and 7.53% respectively [66] 3.4.4 "Hidden Heavy Positions" - In the first half of 2025, among the stocks with a heavy - position market value ranked below 50 in the second - quarter heavy - position holdings of active equity funds, the stock with the highest non - heavy - position market value calculated according to all shareholding details was Dongshan Precision, with a total shareholding market value of 922.9 million yuan, of which 380.2 million yuan was non - heavy - position holding. Among the stocks with a heavy - position market value ranked below 100, the stock with the highest non - heavy - position market value was Naxinwei [69] 3.4.5 Sub - Industry Changes - From the perspective of the market value of holdings in Shenwan primary industries, in the technology sector, the allocation proportions of the electronics and media industries increased significantly, and those of the communication and computer industries increased slightly. In the large - consumption sector, the pharmaceutical biology industry was booming in the first half of the year, while traditional consumption - related fields were reduced in holdings. In the cycle - manufacturing sector, except for a slight increase in the proportions of the national defense and military industry and the machinery equipment industry, other industries decreased, with the power equipment industry having the most significant decrease. In terms of resource products, the market - value proportion of the non - ferrous metals industry increased significantly [71][77]
量化行业配置:行业超预期增强策略8月收益达21.63%
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-04 15:36
Market and Industry Overview - In the past month, major domestic market indices have risen, with the CSI 500, CSI 1000, National Index 2000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 increasing by 13.13%, 11.67%, 11.02%, 10.33%, and 7.22% respectively [2][12] - Almost all industry indices have risen, with 29 out of 31 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index showing gains. The telecommunications sector had the highest increase at 33.78%, while construction, coal, and banking sectors lagged behind with monthly changes of 0.77%, 0.57%, and -1.67% respectively [2][12] Industry Rotation Strategy Performance - The August performance of the expected enhancement industry rotation strategy yielded a return of 21.63%, significantly outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark return of 9.34%, resulting in an excess return of 12.33% [4][34] - The economic valuation industry rotation strategy achieved a return of 11.01%, with an excess return of 1.69% relative to the industry equal-weight benchmark [4][34] - The research industry selection strategy had a modest performance with a return of 6.71%, but an excess return of -2.61% [4][42] Factor Analysis and Performance - In August, six fundamental factors showed positive performance, with quality, valuation momentum, analyst expectations, and surprise factors being particularly notable, achieving IC averages of 46.31%, 23.89%, 43.35%, and 31.65% respectively [3][20] - All factors have positive IC values year-to-date, with quality, analyst expectations, and research activity factors standing out, achieving IC averages of 7.48%, 7.49%, and 10.92% respectively [21] - The multi-directional returns for quality, analyst expectations, and research activity factors reached 19.70%, 15.56%, and 11.56% respectively [21] Recommended Industries - For September, the expected enhancement industry rotation strategy recommends the electronics, media, non-bank financials, and computer sectors, with a shift from telecommunications to computers compared to the previous month [5][48] - The economic valuation industry rotation strategy recommends media, electronics, computers, retail, and real estate sectors, although real estate and retail did not receive recommendations from the expected enhancement strategy due to lower analyst expectations [5][48] - The research industry selection strategy for September includes construction, coal, steel, media, and retail sectors, with steel showing increased research activity and reduced crowding [5][53]
超长地方债的逆势行情
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-04 12:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply and trading of local government bonds are tracked, including the rhythm of primary supply and the characteristics of secondary trading [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (August 25 - 29, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 351.6 billion yuan, with 187.98 billion yuan in new special bonds and 62.62 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Income" and "Special New Special Bonds" are the main investment areas for special bond funds. As of August 29, 2025, special refinancing special bonds issued 55.04 billion yuan in August, accounting for 5.6% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the average issuance interest rate of 20 - year local bonds has significantly increased. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 20 - year and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have continuously widened to 26.3BP and 18.8BP, especially the 20 - year variety has a faster increase rate, while the issuance spread of 30 - year local bonds has narrowed to 21.9BP [3][17] - In August, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei and other places are the main regions for local bond issuance. Anhui's issuance scale exceeds 80 billion yuan, Hunan's issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years reaches 34.1 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Ningxia and Gansu are higher than 2.3% [3][19] 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - The index of local government bonds over 10 years has risen against the trend. Last week, the indexes of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds decreased by 0.03% and increased by 0.23% respectively. The defensive property of 7 - 10 - year varieties is better than that of the same - term treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the increase of over 10 - year varieties is slightly lower than that of the same - term treasury bonds [4][23] - Government bonds in Shandong, Guangdong and other provinces have relatively active transactions, but the trading volume in Shandong and Sichuan has decreased significantly compared with the previous period. In terms of trading income, the average income of local government bonds in mainstream regions is basically above 2.2%, and the income in regions with increased trading volume exceeds 2.23% [4][23]
阅兵专题:新质战斗力集中亮相,装备体系化发展趋势明确
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-04 12:55
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the military industry, indicating potential value reassessment of military assets driven by multiple factors including industry recovery and military trade market expansion [4]. Core Insights - The military parade showcased significant advancements in weaponry and equipment, emphasizing the development of new combat capabilities and strategic deterrence [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of 2025 as a critical period for the military industry, marking the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the beginning of the 15th, which could lead to a reversal in industry prosperity [4]. - Key investment themes include military trade, new combat capabilities, consumable ammunition, and military electronics [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Equipment Display - The parade featured various combat groups, including land, sea, air, and strategic strike units, showcasing new equipment such as the 100 tank and various missile systems [1][2][3]. - The land combat group included advanced tanks and support vehicles, highlighting their enhanced capabilities in modern warfare [11][15]. - The sea combat group presented a range of naval defense systems, including the newly unveiled LY-1 shipborne laser weapon [18][21]. - The air combat group demonstrated a comprehensive array of aircraft, including early warning and special mission aircraft, emphasizing integrated operational capabilities [2][70]. 2. Strategic Capabilities - The report notes the significant number of "firsts" achieved during the parade, including the debut of new equipment and the participation of various military branches [3]. - The emphasis on new-generation equipment reflects the military's focus on integrated combat capabilities across different domains [3][4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on military trade, new combat capabilities, consumable ammunition, and military electronics as key investment lines and core targets [4][99]. - The anticipated recovery in the military industry and the global arms race are expected to drive the reassessment of military assets [4][99].
三棵树(603737):社区店vs茶饮店,如何理解涂料新消费
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-04 09:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][22]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in a growth phase with improved profitability and high growth potential in new business models. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 1.0 billion and 1.4 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting optimism about the company's expansion and profit recovery [4][22]. - The "马上住" community store model is compared to the tea beverage industry, highlighting similarities in brand standardization and service enhancement to address consumer trust issues. The tea beverage sector has reached a mature stage, while "马上住" is still in the growth phase, indicating significant market potential [2][10][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has launched the "马上住" one-stop service system since 2016, with strategic upgrades leading to a comprehensive service ecosystem. The goal is to provide a seamless home renovation experience, with plans to expand the number of community stores significantly by 2026 [9][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 12,476 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 10.03%, and expected to reach 16,212 million RMB by 2027. The net profit is projected to grow from 174 million RMB in 2023 to 1,759 million RMB by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [8][22]. Market Comparison - The initial investment for a "马上住" store is approximately 100,000 RMB, significantly lower than the average costs for tea beverage stores, which range from 170,000 to 800,000 RMB. The average payback period for "马上住" stores is around 6 months, suggesting a favorable investment environment [3][16]. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a strong supply chain and human resource management to support rapid expansion. The company aims to leverage its existing brand recognition and operational standards to create a competitive edge in the home renovation market [21][22].
CREDO TECHNOLOGY(CRDO):产品快速放量,指引FY26收入同增120%
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-04 08:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [9]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with FY26 revenue expected to reach $985 million, representing a 125.5% year-over-year increase. For FY27 and FY28, revenues are forecasted at $1.362 billion and $1.710 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 38.3% and 25.6% [5][9]. - The company has diversified its customer base, with three customers contributing over 10% of revenue in FY26Q1, and anticipates additional large cloud vendor clients entering the market [8]. - The AEC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) solutions are expected to benefit from the growing demand in AI and cloud services, leading to increased sales and market share [9]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company is expected to generate revenue of $193 million, with a projected EBITDA of -$8.97 million. By FY26, revenue is expected to reach $985 million with a positive EBITDA of $286.78 million [5][12]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by FY26, with a projected net profit of $250 million, increasing to $458 million by FY28 [5][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY26 is $1.45, increasing to $2.65 by FY28 [5]. Performance Analysis - In FY26Q1, the company reported revenue of $223 million, a 274% increase year-over-year, and a GAAP net profit of $63.4 million, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [7]. - The company expects continued revenue growth in FY26Q2, with guidance of $230 to $240 million [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the AEC market, with expectations of benefiting from the increasing demand for high-speed data solutions driven by AI and cloud computing [9]. - The growth in GPU and ASIC shipments is anticipated to further enhance the demand for the company's AEC products [9].
债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告:2025年8月第5周:建材价格边际回落
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 15:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of economic growth and inflation. In terms of economic growth, the production side shows a mixed trend with high - level power plant consumption but declines in blast furnace and tire operating rates in some areas, while the demand side sees a marginal decline in building material prices. Regarding inflation, most industrial product prices are falling, with the CPI affected by the drop in pork prices and the PPI showing a complex situation of price changes in different industrial products [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices 3.1.1 Production: High - level Power Plant Consumption - Power plant consumption remains at a high level. On September 2, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 922,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from August 26. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19. With the end of the summer peak approaching, power plant consumption in eight coastal provinces is expected to remain high [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has declined locally. On August 29, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.6%, a 3.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, affected by environmental protection restrictions [4][17]. - The tire operating rate has declined slightly. On August 28, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 63.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 21, and the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 72.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease. However, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices - At the beginning of the month, the sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has rebounded month - on - month. From September 1 - 2, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 189,000 square meters, a 19.0% increase from August, a 54.4% increase from September last year, but a 21.8% decrease from September 2023. The rebound trend needs further confirmation. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities have increased year - on - year [4][24]. - The retail trend in the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][24][25]. - Steel prices have generally fallen. On September 2, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.5%, and 0.9% respectively compared to August 26. Steel inventories are slowly accumulating [4][31]. - Cement prices have returned to a downward trend. On September 2, the national cement price index decreased by 1.3% compared to August 26, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions falling more than the national average. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [4][32]. - The decline in glass prices has widened. On September 2, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,142 yuan per ton, a 3.5% decrease from August 26. The demand side is significantly affected by the real estate market, and the implementation effect of policies remains to be seen [4][38]. - The container shipping freight index has stabilized locally. On August 29, the CCFI index decreased by 1.6% from August 22, while the SCFI index increased by 2.1%. The freight rate of the US route has stopped falling and rebounded, mainly due to shipping companies' capacity control [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall Below 20 Yuan - Pork prices have fallen below 20 yuan. On September 2, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from August 26. In September, the theoretical supply of live pigs is expected to increase [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years. On September 2, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to August 26. Different agricultural products have different price trends [4][51]. 3.2.2 PPI: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling - Oil prices have risen slightly. On September 2, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $69.5 and $65.6 per barrel respectively, a 3.0% and 3.7% increase from August 26. The uncertainty of Russian oil supply supports oil prices [4][56]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 2, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively compared to August 26. However, the domestic commodity index has turned down month - on - month [4][59]. - Industrial product prices have turned down month - on - month. Since September, most industrial product prices have fallen, with coking coal and coke having relatively large declines. Most industrial product prices are also down year - on - year [4][63].
超长信用债探微跟踪:超长信用债交易情绪如何?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 14:29
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment remains in a wait - and - see period, and it is still recommended to participate in ultra - long credit bonds cautiously [5][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Super - long Credit Bond Trading Sentiment 1.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond prices continued to decline this week. Although the bond market recovered during the week, the market sentiment towards ultra - long bonds remained cautious, and the yields of ultra - long credit bonds further increased. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with yields of 2.4% - 2.5% increased significantly compared with last week [2][12][13]. 1.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds maintained low growth. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 6.25 billion, remaining at a low level. This might be because the issuance cost of long - term bonds was still relatively high, and bond - issuing entities were waiting for a better opportunity. Although the coupon rate of new ultra - long credit bonds decreased significantly in the latest week, the absolute value was still at a relatively high level within the year. Driven by the recovery sentiment and the reduction of available bond assets, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long credit bonds rebounded this week [3][22]. 1.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The index price of ultra - long credit bonds did not recover. In the first half of the week, the bond market showed a slight recovery, and the weekly change rate of the over - 10 - year treasury bond index returned to positive, but the index of ultra - long credit bonds continued to fall. The over - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index decreased by 0.43% month - on - month [29]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. The liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds further dried up this week. The number of transactions of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds dropped to 160, and the total number of transactions of over - 10 - year credit bonds was less than 30. In terms of transaction yields, the yield of over - 7 - year urban investment bonds recovered by more than 7bp, but the yield of ultra - long industrial bonds showed no obvious downward trend. The spread between 7 - 10 - year varieties and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to 24.6bp [30]. - Corresponding to the rational return of selling sentiment, the amplitude of high - valuation transactions of ultra - long credit bonds began to narrow this week, and urban investment bonds over 20 years old shifted to low - valuation transactions. In terms of buying sentiment, the proportion of TKN transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rebounded, but the reading of over - 10 - year bonds was still at a low point within the year [35]. - In terms of investor structure, the selling behavior of trading desks for ultra - long credit bonds continued. This week, funds still reduced their holdings of over - 7 - year credit bonds by 2 billion. For allocation desks such as insurance companies, although the承接 behavior continued, the intensity weakened. This week, the increase in holdings was concentrated in 7 - 10 - year varieties [40].
公募基础设施REITs周报-20250903
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 11:37
Report Title - The report is titled "Public Offering Infrastructure REITs Weekly Report" [1] Report's Core View - In the week from August 25 to August 29, 2025, the REITs weighted index rose 1.20% to 101.29 points. Different types of REITs showed varied performance in terms of price changes, trading volume, turnover rate, and valuation. There are also 11 REITs in the exchange acceptance stage and 2 in the approved - to - be - listed state as of August 29, 2025 [2][5] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Summary by Relevant Catalog Secondary Market Performance - **Overall Index Performance**: The REITs weighted index rose 1.20%, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 1.84%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.58%, the ChinaBond Net Price Index rose 0.05%, the London Gold Spot rose 1.32%, and the weighted crude oil varieties fell 1.44%. The order of performance from high to low is stocks > gold > REITs > pure bonds > crude oil > convertible bonds [2] - **Underlying Asset Type Performance**: This week, the property - right type fell 2.07% to 112.64, and the franchise type fell 1.08% to 84.97. By industry type, consumer - type REITs rose 2.21%, ecological and environmental - protection type rose 2.03%, and so on. The order of weekly return performance from high to low is consumer - type > ecological and environmental - protection type > affordable rental housing type > warehousing and logistics type > data center > industrial park type > highway type > energy type [2] - **Top Performers**: The top three REITs in terms of weekly increase are Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT (5.70%), AVIC Yishang Warehousing and Logistics REIT (4.29%), and Jiashi Wumei Consumption REIT (4.22%). In terms of trading volume, CICC Hubei Ketou Optics Valley REIT, Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT, and Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT led with 0.29 billion shares, 0.28 billion shares, and 0.24 billion shares respectively. In terms of turnover rate, Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT, Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT, and Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT had higher turnover rates of 14.75%, 12.66%, and 9.85% respectively [2][3][12] Secondary Market Valuation - **P/FFO Indicator**: This week, the dynamic P/FFO of many REITs such as Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT, CICC GLP REIT is lower than the average of their respective industry types [4][19] - **P/NAV Indicator**: The top three REITs with lower valuation quantiles and showing an undervalued state are Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT, Huaxia Yuexiu REIT, and CICC Hubei Ketou Optics Valley REIT [4][19] Primary Market Tracking - As of August 29, 2025, there are 11 REIT products still in the exchange acceptance stage and 2 in the approved - to - be - listed state [5] Market Correlation Statistics - **REITs and Major Asset Correlation**: This week, the correlation coefficient between REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index is the highest at 0.20. The correlation coefficients with other major assets such as the CSI 300, ChiNext Index also vary [23][24]
转债择券+择时策略周度跟踪-20250903
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 07:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the three strategies jointly held 22 convertible bonds, including Pufa Convertible Bond, Muyuan Convertible Bond, 23 Hope E1, etc. The option strategy maintained low turnover with few new targets, while the sub - low - price strategy had increased turnover recently, possibly due to the high enthusiasm in the equity market [1]. - The model recommends the technology sector at the industry level, driven mainly by the momentum factor, consistent with previous reports. The recommended industries include communication, electronics, computer, power equipment, and household appliances, with a marginal increase in the computer factor score and a decline in the household appliance factor score but still within the recommended range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Performance - The sub - low - price strategy rose 2.72% last week, with an excess return of 0.07% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - Price Index. It has risen 18.32% this year, with an excess return of 1.01% compared to the benchmark [10]. - The option strategy rose 3.21% last week, with an excess return of 0.55% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - Price Index. It has risen 20.66% this year, with an excess return of 2.93% compared to the benchmark [10]. - The double - low enhancement strategy rose 3.08% last week, with an excess return of 1.16% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - Low Index. It has risen 24.14% this year, with an excess return of 9.67% compared to the benchmark [10]. - The industry rotation strategy rose 3.21% last week, with an excess return of 1.30% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - Low Index. It has risen 18.37% this year [10]. Risk - Return Characteristics (Last Year) - The sub - low - price strategy has an annualized return of 33.58%, a Calmar ratio of 5.58, and a maximum drawdown of 6.02% [12]. - The option strategy has an annualized return of 33.20%, a Calmar ratio of 7.09, and a maximum drawdown of 4.68% [12]. - The double - low enhancement strategy has an annualized return of 45.33%, a Calmar ratio of 5.92, and a maximum drawdown of 7.65%, with an annualized excess return of 13.60% [12]. - The industry rotation strategy has an annualized return of 43.77%, a Calmar ratio of 6.61, and a maximum drawdown of 6.62%, with an annualized excess return of 12.22% [12]. Factor Back - test Results - For the sub - low - price strategy, the priceavg factor has a weight of 100%, an IC mean of - 3.44%, an IC standard deviation of 17.53%, an ICIR of - 19.63%, an IC>0 frequency of 35.25%, and a p - Value of 0.01% [20]. - For the option strategy, the amplitude_mean_6m factor has a weight of 100%, an IC mean of - 4.41%, an IC standard deviation of 19.36%, an ICIR of - 22.80%, an IC>0 frequency of 31.42%, and a p - Value of 0.00% [20]. - For the double - low enhancement strategy, multiple factors are used with different weights. For example, the impliedvol diff1 3m, MaxPricePremium, pricechangediff di ff1 1w, priceavg priceavg, stkratio diff1 1w, Amihud diff1 3m, and MaxPricePremium factors each have a 20% or 25% weight. The pricechangediff di ff1 1w factor has an IC mean of - 3.02%, an IC standard deviation of 9.17%, an ICIR of - 32.92%, an IC>0 frequency of 24.90%, and a p - Value of 0.00% [20]. - For the industry rotation strategy, factors like diff1 1m, pricechangediff_mean 2w, and stkratio diff1 1m are used with 25% weights. The diff1 1m factor has an IC mean of - 3.29%, an IC standard deviation of 23.44%, an ICIR of - 14.04%, an IC>0 frequency of 42.31%, and a p - Value of 0.45% [20].