监管收紧下的市场韧性 在美国为中心的风险事件频出下，全球资金正在青睐新兴市场与部分非美发达市场。近期 A 股在海外多重风险与国内 监管降温信号下展现韧性。值得注意的是，本周四以来 A 股的交易热度和波动率再度上升，叠加目前两融活跃度仍处 于相对高位，而主题投资也在新催化下明显反弹。我们认为：市场的乐观是必要的，正如我们上周周报提到，在这一 背景下主题投资确实并未到降温的时候。市场未来与监管降温之间的关系值得思考：由于汇金持仓中，沪深 300 的占 比较大，且近期赎回压力较大，沪深 300 过去一段时间明显跑输了其他主要宽基指数。但是我们认为，对于被持续 ETF 流出而降温的沪深 300，投资者也不用过度担忧，因为其反而更早的符合了监管降温的要求，进一步打压必要性下降； 后续需要关注杠杆资金较为密集流入的板块，政策性的降温受到的影响可能更大。 内外需：不要对立，要协调统一 12 月我国出口增速再次大超预期，其核心驱动力在于海外正处于降息周期下投资上行的通道中，直接拉动了我国在 电力设备、机械设备等相关产业链的出口。同时我们看到，目前无论是美国 AI 投资还是以非洲为代表的新兴市场投 资均仍在上升；与此同时，全球 ...

核心观点 碳排放总量和强度双控将全面实施，关注十五五双碳政策 1 月 20 日国务院副总理何立峰在达沃斯经济论坛致辞表示我国将全面实施碳排放总量和强度双控制度，力争 2030 碳排放达到峰值。1 月 20 日国新办发布会亦提出加快能源转型（推动新能源电量逐步覆盖全社会新增用电需求、推动 煤电转为支撑性调节电源）、推动产业升级（推动零碳产业、发挥碳排放评价对"两高"项目的把关作用）、强化全面 节约（推进循环经济和再生资源）、科学开展考核（全面实施碳排放总量和强度双控）的四方面双碳工作方向。立足当 下，十五五作为双碳的阶段性考核节点，我们看好双碳领域政策展开，重点关注碳排放双控、高耗能电价机制调整、 绿色价值、电力成本向终端传导机制、非电可再生消纳等政策方向，重视双碳政策对产业结构和产能规划的引导。在 此过程中，关注火电商业模式转型、绿电国补发放进展、绿氢氨醇的产能建设等方向。 冬季用电负荷再创新高，东北近期出现多次零/负电价，火电容量价值需求提升 受寒潮和用电结构转型影响，1 月 20 日全国冬季用电负荷首次突破 14 亿千瓦，此前于 1 月 4 日首次达到 13.5 亿 千瓦，入冬以来 12 个省级电网负荷 ...

Investment Ratings - The report provides a positive outlook on the new tobacco industry, indicating a steady upward trend, while the home furnishing and packaging sectors are stabilizing at the bottom [6][11][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the marketing strategies around the Spring Festival and Valentine's Day for trendy toys, with companies like Pop Mart and Blok launching limited series to enhance IP value and collectability [7][8]. - In the new tobacco sector, the necessity for domestic development is emphasized, with major players increasing investments in heated tobacco products (HNB) and innovative marketing strategies [11][12]. - The home furnishing market is experiencing a contraction in sales, with significant declines in both new and second-hand property transactions, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by policy support [13][14]. - The packaging industry is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in downstream demand, supported by growth in consumer goods sectors [15][16]. - The pet food industry is facing increased competition, leading to higher sales expense ratios, but listed companies are leveraging their financial advantages for mergers and acquisitions [21]. Summary by Sections Trendy Toys - Focus on marketing strategies for key holidays, with companies like Pop Mart and Blok launching special editions to enhance brand value [7]. - The integration of AI in toys is gaining traction, with companies like Kid King and JD.com developing AI products to meet family needs [8][9]. New Tobacco - The report notes a projected decline in electronic cigarette exports, with a focus on the need for innovation in the domestic market [11]. - Major tobacco companies are increasing their investments in HNB products, indicating a significant growth potential in this segment [12]. Home Furnishing - The report indicates a significant drop in property transactions, with new home sales down 29.23% year-on-year and second-hand home sales down 8.94% [13]. - Despite current challenges, there is optimism for recovery in the home furnishing sector due to supportive policies [14]. Packaging - The packaging sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with growth in consumer goods contributing positively to the industry [15][16]. - The report highlights price fluctuations in raw materials, particularly in the paper and aluminum sectors, which could impact packaging costs [15]. Pet Food - Increased competition in the pet food industry is leading to higher sales expenses, but established companies are positioned to benefit from consolidation opportunities [21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and those actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions [21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it implies a cautious outlook due to recent market conditions and regulatory delays [34]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization dropping by 6.5% to $3.02 trillion. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 6.3% and 10.4%, respectively [10][11]. - The fear and greed index shifted from neutral to fear, indicating a decrease in market sentiment [14]. - Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are anticipated to maintain interest rates, with a high probability of no rate cuts in early 2026 [10][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 6.5% this week, with Bitcoin closing at $89,504 and Ethereum at $2,953 [10]. - The market sentiment has turned cold, with the fear and greed index dropping to 35, indicating fear among investors [14] [10]. 2. Global Policy and Industry News - The Clarity Act is expected to be delayed until late February to March due to prioritization of housing policies in the Senate [2]. - The New York Stock Exchange plans to launch a 24/7 trading platform for tokenized securities, aiming to reduce counterparty risk [27]. - Vietnam is initiating a pilot program for licensing cryptocurrency trading platforms, with about 10 companies expressing interest [29]. 3. Company News - Bitmine received shareholder approval for a stock increase to facilitate future financing [30]. - Strive plans to raise $150 million through preferred stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin and repay debts [31]. - WhiteFiber forecasts preliminary revenues of $22.7 to $25.1 million for Q4 2025 [31]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies transitioning to AI data centers, particularly those with partnerships with Google and significant power reserves [32]. - It also recommends focusing on trading platforms that are exploring stock and equity tokenization opportunities [32].

板块市场回顾 本周（2026/1/17-2026/1/23）交运指数上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.6%，跑赢大盘 2.3%，排名 18/29。交运子板 块中公交板块涨幅最大(+6.7%)，航运板块涨幅最小(+0.5%)。 行业观点 快递：12 月快递业务量同比增长 2.3%，部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（1 月 12 日-1 月 18 日）邮政快递 累计揽收量约 40.73 亿件，环比-6.5%,同比-0.8%；累计投递量约 40.82 亿件，环比-3.9%，同比-1.9%。国家邮政局 公布 2025 年邮政行业运行情况，2025 年，快递业务收入完成 1.5 万亿元，同比增长 6.5%。快递业务量完成 1989.5 亿件，同比增长 13.6%。其中，12 月快递业务收入完成 1388.7 亿元，同比增长 0.7%；快递业务量完成 182.1 亿件， 同比增长 2.3%。反内卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，快递旺季来临，反内卷涨价已兑现。考虑估值性价比、经营韧性、 股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。低价件减少，头部快递市场份额提升，看好中通快递。 物流：危化品水运价格环比持平，发力智慧物流推荐海 ...

1）天孚通信公布业绩预告：公司预计 2025 年实现归母净利润约 18.81 亿元-21.5 亿元，同比增长 40%-60%。AI 行业 加速发展与 IDC 建设的推进是公司高速光器件产品需求增长的主因,行业的高景气度得到验证。但由于汇兑损失，财 务费用同比上升；此外我们预计光芯片物料紧缺问题也可能对业绩带来负面影响。2）阿里推动平头哥上市：阿里巴 巴集团正考虑将其芯片设计子公司平头哥分拆为独立公司并推动上市，但具体时间表尚未最终确定。我们认为平头哥 上市有助于增强阿里在 AI 领域的竞争力，持续看好国产 AI 芯片前景。3）OpenAI 在硬件、AI 应用及融资方面动作频 繁：A）OpenAI 或将在 2H26 推出其首款人工智能设备，这款首款由 ChatGPT 驱动的设备可能具备以下特点：口袋大 小、能感知用户周围环境与生活情境，并且完全无屏幕。B）ServiceNow 在周二宣布，已与 OpenAI 达成合作协议，旨 在利用 OpenAI 的先进模型构建语音对话智能体，让用户能够使用其首选语言进行交流并实时触发诸如创建工单或执 行审批等操作。C）OpenAI 计划未来几周在 ChatGPT 的"免费版" ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 40.7% for steel companies, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is entering a winter storage phase for raw material replenishment, driven by increased iron water production and rising iron ore import inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price gap has decreased by 6.4 yuan, with current losses at 35.1 yuan per ton, indicating pressure on domestic prices due to high export prices [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index increased by 2.7%, outperforming the broader market by 2.4%, influenced by successful negotiations between China Minmetals and BHP [1][11]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is showing signs of stability with a profit rate of 40.7% and a recent increase in the CITIC Steel Index [1][11]. - The industry is experiencing a winter storage phase, with rising iron ore import inventories and production recovery [1][11]. Subsector Overview - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3356 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from last week [2][12]. - The operating rate for medium-thick plate production is at 80%, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.33% [2][12]. - Steel mills are showing a cautious outlook for the market, with expectations of weak price fluctuations in the coming week [2][12]. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The coking coal market remains weak, with the Mysteel coking coal index at 1304.6, unchanged from the previous day [3][13]. - Iron ore prices are mixed, with domestic iron concentrate prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a stable production environment [4][14]. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production is stable, with daily average iron water production at 228.1 million tons, showing a slight increase [3][13]. - The overall supply of iron ore is ample, with port inventories at high levels, leading to a lack of upward price momentum for domestic iron ore [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in livestock and planting industries, suggesting potential for recovery in the medium to long term [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the livestock segment facing challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and price pressures, while the planting sector shows signs of stabilization amid potential price increases [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-quality, low-cost enterprises in the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, where there is potential for profit recovery as the market stabilizes [3][4][5]. - The planting industry is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at increasing crop yields and addressing supply chain disruptions caused by external factors [6][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2923.59 points, with a weekly increase of 0.40%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the national commodity pig price was 12.97 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. The average weight of pigs at market was 128.89 kg, showing a slight increase [22][23]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to weak supply and demand, but a potential recovery in the second half of the year is expected as industry capacity reduces [3][4][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.50 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 1.19% from the previous week. The report notes that while profits are under pressure, there are signs of improvement in the yellow feather chicken market due to better demand [4][28][33]. 2.3 Livestock - As of January 16, live cattle prices in Shandong were 26.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.67% increase week-on-week. The report suggests that beef prices may rise as the market enters a consumption peak [5][37][41]. - The dairy sector is also experiencing a reduction in capacity, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [5][41]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were reported at 2265.71 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.25%. The report indicates that the planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if crop yields decrease significantly [6][43][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - As of January 23, feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices showed some upward movement, particularly for shellfish [54][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI applications, particularly highlighting the global download of Alibaba's Qianwen model exceeding 1 billion [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustained high demand in the coffee industry, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4]. - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% [4]. - The music streaming platform is identified as a high-quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms [4]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing macroeconomic uncertainties, with notable revenue growth forecasts for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new entrants like Meituan, indicating a growing interest in the automotive aftermarket [4]. - The report highlights advancements in Robotaxi technology and the launch of AI applications in healthcare, suggesting a focus on these sectors [4]. - The AI and cloud segment is noted for its growth potential, with significant developments from Alibaba and OpenAI [4]. - The media sector shows positive trends in gaming, particularly with AI gameplay receiving favorable feedback [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee industry remains vibrant with brands expanding despite seasonal challenges [4]. - E-commerce faces challenges with a projected online retail sales growth of 5.2% by 2025 [4]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable assets, with a focus on subscription services [4]. - The virtual asset market is under pressure but shows potential for revenue growth, particularly for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is expanding with new players entering the market [4]. - Significant advancements in Robotaxi technology and AI applications in healthcare are noted [4]. - The AI and cloud sector is experiencing growth, with Alibaba's Qianwen model achieving over 1 billion downloads [4]. 1.3 Media - The gaming sector is performing well, with positive feedback on AI gameplay mechanics [4].

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]