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汽车及汽车零部件行业研究:汽车行业2026 年投资策略:智能提速、格局再塑与全球化持续
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-31 09:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on globalization, intelligence, and high-end market opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition in the domestic market while witnessing significant growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][3]. - The overall vehicle sales are projected to remain stable in 2026, with a notable increase in NEV sales driven by favorable policies and consumer demand [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end vehicles and intelligent driving technologies as key growth areas for automotive companies [5][14]. Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Review: Intensified Domestic Competition, High Growth in NEV Exports - Total vehicle sales in China for January to November 2025 reached 20.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% in retail and 11.2% in wholesale [2]. - Domestic sales showed slight growth, heavily influenced by policy changes, while exports surged, particularly in the NEV segment, which saw a 19% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The NEV penetration rate reached 40.8% in exports, with significant contributions from plug-in hybrid vehicles [19]. 2. 2026 Outlook: Stability Expected, Acceleration in Globalization and Intelligence - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are expected to reach 22.03 million units in 2026, with NEVs projected to grow by 12% year-on-year [3][4]. - The high-end vehicle segment is anticipated to perform better due to a shift in consumer preferences and the increasing market share of domestic brands [4]. - NEV exports are expected to reach 6.73 million units, with a 34% increase in NEV exports alone, driven by improved product quality and market maturity [4]. 3. Investment Strategy: Favorable Opportunities in Globalization, Intelligence, and High-End Markets - The report highlights the potential for automotive companies that excel in international markets, high-end product offerings, and advanced intelligent driving technologies [5][13]. - Companies like BYD, Geely, and Li Auto are identified as key players likely to benefit from these trends due to their strong export capabilities and innovative products [5][13]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of the AI driving sector, predicting that leading companies will leverage their technological advancements to gain competitive advantages [14][15].
商业航天:2026年,从大国叙事到商业闭环的奇点时刻
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-31 03:23
Core Insights - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for investors, focusing on state-owned system integrators with core frequency resources for stable beta returns, while also investing in private sector leaders in commercial rockets and satellite components for high alpha returns [3] - The Chinese commercial space industry is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for alpha returns as the industry shifts from prototype development to mass production [5] Policy Cycle - Recent policies have provided a long-term development framework for the commercial space industry, with significant catalysts emerging [12] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasized the importance of commercial space, while the 15th Five-Year Plan positions it alongside new energy vehicles and integrated circuits as a pillar industry [14] - The establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies and action plans aims to enhance efficiency in launch approvals and promote industry standardization [14] Technology, Application, and Capital Resonance - Key technological breakthroughs are expected to lower costs significantly, with reusable rockets like the Zhuque-3 projected to reduce launch costs [30] - The shift from national missions to consumer applications is anticipated, with satellite communication becoming a standard feature in smartphones and vehicles [36] - A surge in capital investment is expected, with the establishment of a national commercial space development fund to support long-term investments [41] Competitive Cycle - SpaceX has established a monopoly-level launch capability, necessitating China to develop its own low-orbit broadband communication network for both commercial and national security reasons [20] External Catalysts - The rapid iteration of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship has created competitive pressure, prompting domestic policies and capital to favor core companies in the space sector [5] Investment Strategy and Valuation Framework - The valuation framework for commercial space is shifting from a broad narrative of total addressable market (TAM) to specific analyses of price-to-sales (PS) ratios and order visibility [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies deeply integrated into the commercial rocket and satellite supply chains, which are expected to benefit first from the transition to mass production [3] Future Catalysts - The report highlights 2026-2027 as critical years for the commercial space industry, with significant developments expected in satellite deployment and launch capabilities [6]
一月策略及十大金股:新的主线浮出水面
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-31 00:55
Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]
基金量化观察:2025年主动权益基金及ETF表现回顾
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-30 09:37
- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]
高频因子跟踪:Gemini3 Flash等大模型的金融文本分析能力测评
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-30 09:02
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: High-frequency "Gold" Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines three types of high-frequency factors (price range, price-volume divergence, and regret avoidance) with equal weights to enhance the CSI 1000 Index. It aims to leverage the predictive power of high-frequency factors for stock selection[3][62][66] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine the three high-frequency factors (price range, price-volume divergence, and regret avoidance) with weights of 25%, 25%, and 50%, respectively[36][42][51] 2. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[36][42][51] 3. Implement weekly rebalancing with a turnover buffer mechanism to reduce transaction costs[62][66] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong excess return performance both in-sample and out-of-sample, with a stable upward trend in the net value curve[39][66] 2. Model Name: High-frequency & Fundamental Resonance Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates high-frequency factors with fundamental factors (consensus expectations, growth, and technical factors) to improve the performance of multi-factor investment portfolios[67][69] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine the three high-frequency factors (price range, price-volume divergence, and regret avoidance) with fundamental factors (consensus expectations, growth, and technical factors) using equal weights[67][69] 2. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[67][69] 3. Implement weekly rebalancing with a turnover buffer mechanism to reduce transaction costs[67][69] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows improved performance metrics compared to the high-frequency-only strategy, with higher annualized returns and Sharpe ratios[69][71] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. High-frequency "Gold" Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - Annualized Return: 9.63% - Annualized Volatility: 23.82% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.40 - Maximum Drawdown: 47.77% - Annualized Excess Return: 9.85% - Tracking Error: 4.32% - IR: 2.28 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 6.04%[63][66] 2. High-frequency & Fundamental Resonance Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - Annualized Return: 13.80% - Annualized Volatility: 23.44% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.59 - Maximum Drawdown: 39.60% - Annualized Excess Return: 13.93% - Tracking Error: 4.20% - IR: 3.31 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 4.52%[69][71] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Price Range Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the activity of stock transactions in different price ranges during the day, reflecting investors' expectations of future stock trends[3][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use high-frequency snapshot data to calculate transaction volume and number of transactions in high (80%) and low (10%) price ranges[33][36] 2. Combine sub-factors with weights of 25%, 25%, and 50%[36] 3. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[36] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong predictive power and stable performance, with a steadily upward excess net value curve[39] 2. Factor Name: Price-Volume Divergence Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the correlation between stock price and trading volume. Lower correlation indicates a higher probability of future price increases[3][40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use high-frequency snapshot data to calculate the correlation between price and trading volume, as well as price and transaction count[40][42] 2. Combine sub-factors with equal weights[42] 3. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's performance has been relatively flat in recent years but has shown good excess return this year[44] 3. Factor Name: Regret Avoidance Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on behavioral finance, this factor captures investors' regret avoidance emotions, such as the impact of selling stocks that later rebound[3][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to identify active buy/sell directions[46] 2. Construct sub-factors like sell rebound ratio and sell rebound deviation, and apply restrictions on small orders and closing trades[46] 3. Combine sub-factors with equal weights and neutralize by industry market capitalization[46][51] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows stable upward performance and strong excess return levels out-of-sample[53] 4. Factor Name: Slope Convexity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the impact of order book slope and convexity on expected returns, reflecting investor patience and supply-demand elasticity[3][54] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use order book data to calculate the slope of buy and sell orders at different levels[54] 2. Construct sub-factors for low-level slope and high-level convexity, and combine them[54][58] 3. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[58] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown stable performance since 2016, with relatively flat out-of-sample results[61] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Price Range Factor - Annualized Excess Return: 4.90% - IR: 1.13 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 1.89%[36][39] 2. Price-Volume Divergence Factor - Annualized Excess Return: 5.59% - IR: 1.29 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 2.13%[42][44] 3. Regret Avoidance Factor - Annualized Excess Return: -2.62% - IR: -0.61 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 1.69%[46][53] 4. Slope Convexity Factor - Annualized Excess Return: -10.40% - IR: -2.35 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 2.42%[58][61]
芯源微(688037):涂胶显影国产替代先驱者,在关键设备领域提前卡位平台化布局
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-30 08:59
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 167.18 RMB based on a projected PS of 13 times for 2026 [4]. Core Insights - The company specializes in photoresist coating and developing equipment, with a strong presence in advanced packaging, compound semiconductors, and MEMS industries. It is actively expanding into front-end fields. The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 is under pressure due to delays in order acceptance, but a significant backlog of orders is expected to drive a return to high growth [2][3]. - The semiconductor equipment industry remains robust, with substantial domestic substitution opportunities for coating and developing equipment. In 2024, global semiconductor equipment sales reached 117.1 billion USD, with China accounting for 49.5 billion USD, reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase [2][3]. - The company has successfully broken the monopoly of foreign manufacturers in the domestic market for coating and developing equipment, launching multiple product models and securing orders from leading domestic clients [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Domestic Leader in Coating and Developing Equipment - The company has over 20 years of experience in semiconductor equipment, focusing on the development, production, and sales of specialized equipment, including photoresist coating and developing machines. Its product range has expanded to cover various sectors, including front-end wafer processing and advanced packaging [14][16]. Section 2: Accelerating Domestic Substitution and Market Demand Recovery - The semiconductor market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by high demand for advanced technologies. The company's products are essential in the photolithography process, and the demand for photolithography machines is expected to boost the development of coating and developing equipment [33][34]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is growing significantly, with a notable increase in market share from 13% in 2015 to 42% in 2024. This growth is attributed to the rise of domestic wafer fabrication plants and the demand for domestic substitution of various semiconductor equipment [60][61]. Section 3: Product Platform Development and Competitive Advantage - The company is actively enriching its product lines, including physical/chemical cleaning, temporary bonding machines, and advanced packaging products, to create new growth opportunities. The acquisition by Northern Huachuang is expected to enhance the company's R&D capabilities and optimize supply chain management [3][67]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a research expense ratio that exceeds industry averages, indicating a commitment to innovation and product development [75]. Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.5 million RMB, 2.3 million RMB, and 5.1 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The current PS valuations are 16, 11, and 8 times for the respective years, with a target PS of 13 times for 2026 [4].
量化漫谈系列之十九:AI 选股模型失效的三种应对方法
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-30 08:53
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights a significant shift in the A-share market style from "value/low volatility" to "small-cap/momentum" in 2024, and further converging to "consensus growth" in 2025, leading to a pronounced mean reversion effect due to overcrowding in market capitalization factors [2][13] - During the extreme market conditions from August to September 2025, mainstream AI strategies failed to adapt to the rapid style shift, resulting in significant net value drawdowns that were highly correlated with small-cap factor reversals [2][17] - The report identifies that both traditional linear multi-factor models and advanced AI strategies experienced a notable decline in excess returns during extreme market conditions, with AI strategies suffering more than traditional ones due to their reliance on historical data paths [2][17] Group 2 - The report discusses the issue of strategy homogeneity within the industry, where the widespread use of models like GRU and LightGBM has led to a high correlation between factors generated by different institutions, increasing systemic risk during market reversals [3][24] - It emphasizes that the mismatch between training sample distributions and extreme market conditions is a critical factor in AI model failures, as these models struggle to capture asset linkage patterns during rare events [3][35] Group 3 - An external risk control system has been developed, independent of stock selection models, to address the challenges of traditional timing strategies, utilizing a standardized three-layer processing workflow to generate clear long/short signals [4][40] - The empirical backtesting of this timing framework shows significant improvements in annualized returns and drawdown control, with the annualized return for the composite strategy on the CSI A500 index reaching 10.61% and maximum drawdown reduced to 11.82% [4][45] Group 4 - The report outlines targeted optimizations for core AI models, including enhancements to the LightGBM model through a "high-quality sample weighting" mechanism and the use of Huber Loss to reduce sensitivity to outliers, resulting in a significant reduction in maximum drawdown [5][61] - For the GRU model, the introduction of Attention Pooling and a memory module with CVaR Loss has improved the model's ability to utilize historical information effectively, leading to a substantial increase in excess returns and a decrease in maximum drawdown [5][67]
12月29日信用债异常成交跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-29 15:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "25 Grid MTN024" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "25 Qingdao Chengyang MTN002" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "22 Nanjing Bank Perpetual Bond 01" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "23 Agricultural Bank of China Three - Rural Bond" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, real - estate bonds ranked high. The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 0.5 - 1 - year variety having the highest proportion of discounted transactions; the transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and bonds of various terms were generally traded at a discount. By industry, the bonds in the electronics industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "25 Grid MTN024", "24产融05", and "25邛崃建投PPN001A" had discounted transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "25 Grid MTN024" had a remaining term of 14.48 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.30%, and a transaction scale of 95400000 yuan [4] 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - Bonds like "25 Qingdao Chengyang MTN002", "24 Huaibei 03", and "25 Huai 'an Investment 03" had rising net prices, with varying remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For instance, "25 Qingdao Chengyang MTN002" had a remaining term of 2.99 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.27%, and a transaction scale of 40040000 yuan [5] 3.3 Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Bonds including "22 Nanjing Bank Perpetual Bond 01", "22 Ningbo Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01", and "22 Huaxia Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01" were involved in transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "22 Nanjing Bank Perpetual Bond 01" had a remaining term of 1.82 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.01%, and a transaction scale of 81970000 yuan [6] 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Bonds such as "23 Agricultural Bank of China Three - Rural Bond", "24 Bank of China (Hong Kong) Bond 01BC", and "23 Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank Three - Rural Bond" were traded, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For instance, "23 Agricultural Bank of China Three - Rural Bond" had a remaining term of 0.44 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, and a transaction scale of 50220000 yuan [7] 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds including "21 Gemdale 04", "20 Zunhe 01", and "24 Liaoning Fangda MTN001" had a transaction yield higher than 5%, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "21 Gemdale 04" had a remaining term of 0.27 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.03%, and a transaction scale of 10760000 yuan [8] 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [- 10, - 5), [- 5,0), (0,5], and (5,10] intervals, with corresponding bond numbers and transaction scales [10] 3.7 Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 0.5 years and 5 years, with different transaction scales and proportions of discounted transactions in each interval [12] 3.8 Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 1 year and 5 years, with different transaction scales and proportions of discounted transactions in each interval [15] 3.9 Discounted Transaction Proportion and Transaction Scale of Non - financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - Different industries had different average valuation price deviations and transaction scales for non - financial credit bonds. The electronics industry had the largest average valuation price deviation [18]
巨头AI投入不减,积极发力商业变现
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-29 11:09
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Major players in the AI sector are increasing their investments and focusing on commercial monetization strategies, with Nvidia's strategic integration of Groq and ByteDance's significant capital expenditure plans being key highlights [6][8][15] Industry Overview AI Infrastructure - Nvidia has strategically integrated Groq to enhance its capabilities in high-efficiency inference, paying approximately $20 billion for the technology and talent [14] - ByteDance plans to invest 160 billion RMB (approximately $23 billion) in capital expenditures in 2026, with a focus on AI infrastructure [15] AI Model Development - OpenAI has improved its profitability margin to 70% as of October 2023, up from 35% in early 2024, indicating a strong balance between infrastructure investment and revenue generation [16] - ByteDance has launched a new model, Seed Prover 1.5, which has achieved significant performance metrics in formal mathematical reasoning [17] AI Applications - The competitive landscape for leading AI applications remains stable, with ByteDance's app "Doubao" achieving over 100 million daily active users (DAU) [21] - Meta's AI glasses, Ray-Ban, have seen a significant sales increase, with approximately 2.39 million units sold in Q3 2025, marking a 393% year-on-year growth [29] Capital Trends Price Increases in Supply Chain - Major memory suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix have raised HBM3E prices by nearly 20%, attributed to increased orders from AI accelerator companies [24] - The report indicates a sustained high demand in the semiconductor sector driven by AI applications, leading to price adjustments across various components [27] Corporate Strategies - Nvidia has restructured its cloud services team to focus on internal needs rather than external sales, indicating a shift in strategy to optimize its core competencies [25] - Alibaba has launched new versions of its AI models, enhancing their capabilities and moving towards a more integrated development ecosystem [28]
ETF 谋势:科创ETF冲量成色几何?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-29 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week (12/22 - 12/26), bond - type ETFs had a net capital inflow of 54.515 billion yuan. The net unit value of bond ETFs showed marginal recovery. There was no new issuance of bond ETFs. The trading volume and turnover rate of various bond ETFs showed different changes, and the performance of different types of bond ETFs also varied [2][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance Progress Tracking - No new bond ETFs were issued last week [3][16]. 3.2 Stock Product Tracking - As of December 26, 2025, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were 152.6 billion yuan, 426.4 billion yuan, and 60.9 billion yuan respectively, with credit - bond ETFs accounting for 66.6% of the total scale. The circulating market values of Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF and Boshi Convertible - bond ETF ranked top two, at 65.1 billion yuan and 52.3 billion yuan respectively [18]. - Compared with the previous week, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs increased by 1.586 billion yuan, 31.621 billion yuan, and decreased by 2.768 billion yuan respectively. Products with significant scale growth last week included Yinhuakongchuangzhai ETF, Harvest CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, and Huatianfu CSI AAA Kechuang Bond ETF, with a year - on - year scale growth of over 6 billion yuan [20]. - Among credit - bond ETFs, the circulating market values of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were 124.8 billion yuan and 340.5 billion yuan respectively, increasing by 7.262 billion yuan and 56.694 billion yuan compared with the previous week [22]. 3.3 ETF Performance Tracking - Last week, the cumulative net unit values of interest - rate bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs closed at 1.18 and 1.03 respectively [23]. - As of December 26, based on February 7 as the base date, the average cumulative return of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs rose to 0.89%; based on July 17 as the base date, the cumulative return of science - innovation bond ETFs marginally recovered to 0.22%, returning to the positive range [29]. 3.4 Premium/Discount Rate Tracking - Last week, the average premium/discount rates of credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 0.11%, - 0.06%, and - 0.10% respectively. The average trading price of credit - bond ETFs was lower than the fund's net unit value, indicating low allocation sentiment. Specifically, the weekly average premium/discount rates of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were - 0.25% and - 0.07% respectively [36]. 3.5 Turnover Rate Tracking - Last week, the turnover rate was in the order of interest - rate bond ETFs > credit - bond ETFs > convertible - bond ETFs. The weekly turnover rates of the three types of products all increased marginally, reaching 136%, 102%, and 84% respectively. Specifically, products such as Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark - Market - Making Treasury Bond ETF, Southern CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, and Yongying Science - Innovation Bond ETF had relatively high turnover rates [41].