Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 40.7% for steel companies, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is entering a winter storage phase for raw material replenishment, driven by increased iron water production and rising iron ore import inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price gap has decreased by 6.4 yuan, with current losses at 35.1 yuan per ton, indicating pressure on domestic prices due to high export prices [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index increased by 2.7%, outperforming the broader market by 2.4%, influenced by successful negotiations between China Minmetals and BHP [1][11]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is showing signs of stability with a profit rate of 40.7% and a recent increase in the CITIC Steel Index [1][11]. - The industry is experiencing a winter storage phase, with rising iron ore import inventories and production recovery [1][11]. Subsector Overview - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3356 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from last week [2][12]. - The operating rate for medium-thick plate production is at 80%, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.33% [2][12]. - Steel mills are showing a cautious outlook for the market, with expectations of weak price fluctuations in the coming week [2][12]. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The coking coal market remains weak, with the Mysteel coking coal index at 1304.6, unchanged from the previous day [3][13]. - Iron ore prices are mixed, with domestic iron concentrate prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a stable production environment [4][14]. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production is stable, with daily average iron water production at 228.1 million tons, showing a slight increase [3][13]. - The overall supply of iron ore is ample, with port inventories at high levels, leading to a lack of upward price momentum for domestic iron ore [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in livestock and planting industries, suggesting potential for recovery in the medium to long term [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the livestock segment facing challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and price pressures, while the planting sector shows signs of stabilization amid potential price increases [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-quality, low-cost enterprises in the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, where there is potential for profit recovery as the market stabilizes [3][4][5]. - The planting industry is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at increasing crop yields and addressing supply chain disruptions caused by external factors [6][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2923.59 points, with a weekly increase of 0.40%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the national commodity pig price was 12.97 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. The average weight of pigs at market was 128.89 kg, showing a slight increase [22][23]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to weak supply and demand, but a potential recovery in the second half of the year is expected as industry capacity reduces [3][4][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.50 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 1.19% from the previous week. The report notes that while profits are under pressure, there are signs of improvement in the yellow feather chicken market due to better demand [4][28][33]. 2.3 Livestock - As of January 16, live cattle prices in Shandong were 26.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.67% increase week-on-week. The report suggests that beef prices may rise as the market enters a consumption peak [5][37][41]. - The dairy sector is also experiencing a reduction in capacity, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [5][41]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were reported at 2265.71 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.25%. The report indicates that the planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if crop yields decrease significantly [6][43][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - As of January 23, feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices showed some upward movement, particularly for shellfish [54][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI applications, particularly highlighting the global download of Alibaba's Qianwen model exceeding 1 billion [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustained high demand in the coffee industry, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4]. - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% [4]. - The music streaming platform is identified as a high-quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms [4]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing macroeconomic uncertainties, with notable revenue growth forecasts for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new entrants like Meituan, indicating a growing interest in the automotive aftermarket [4]. - The report highlights advancements in Robotaxi technology and the launch of AI applications in healthcare, suggesting a focus on these sectors [4]. - The AI and cloud segment is noted for its growth potential, with significant developments from Alibaba and OpenAI [4]. - The media sector shows positive trends in gaming, particularly with AI gameplay receiving favorable feedback [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee industry remains vibrant with brands expanding despite seasonal challenges [4]. - E-commerce faces challenges with a projected online retail sales growth of 5.2% by 2025 [4]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable assets, with a focus on subscription services [4]. - The virtual asset market is under pressure but shows potential for revenue growth, particularly for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is expanding with new players entering the market [4]. - Significant advancements in Robotaxi technology and AI applications in healthcare are noted [4]. - The AI and cloud sector is experiencing growth, with Alibaba's Qianwen model achieving over 1 billion downloads [4]. 1.3 Media - The gaming sector is performing well, with positive feedback on AI gameplay mechanics [4].

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end liquor such as Moutai, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales and pricing stability post-Spring Festival [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor segment, especially Moutai, is experiencing a sales boost as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations of price recovery due to increased demand driven by wealth effects [10][11]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns about post-festival price drops for Moutai are likely to be unfounded, predicting only minor seasonal fluctuations [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the liquor industry is shifting from a pessimistic outlook to a more stable one, with expectations of improved sales dynamics as external constraints on consumption ease [11][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report highlights that Moutai's sales are performing better than previously cautious expectations, leading to a price recovery for both Moutai and newer Moutai products [10]. - It is noted that the market is still wary of potential price declines after the Spring Festival, but historical patterns suggest only minor adjustments are likely [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning for high-end liquor companies, recommending investments in brands with strong market presence and growth potential [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is seeing a steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks [12]. - The report suggests that the beer industry's performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and improving dividend yields [12]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from pre-Spring Festival stocking and product innovation, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to show significant profit elasticity due to low comparative bases [14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading snack companies that are expanding their store presence and adapting their product offerings [14]. Beverage Industry - The soft drink sector is currently facing challenges due to seasonal demand fluctuations and competition from ready-to-drink tea brands, leading to a slight decline in overall sales growth [14]. - Despite these challenges, leading brands like Dongpeng and Nongfu are expected to maintain double-digit growth through brand strength and market share consolidation [14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing as restaurant demand begins to recover, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 driven by seasonal effects [15]. - The report highlights companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Condiments as having strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and dividend yields [15].

投资逻辑： 本周 Q4 公募基金医药持仓情况出炉，Q4 公募基金医药持仓占比为 8.11%，环比减少 1.66pp；剔除主动医药基金后， 公募基金医药持仓占比为3.90%，环比减少1.36pp。创新药ETF在Q4规模达到1006.2亿元，占医药基金比例为13.11%， 环比减少 1.35pp。创新药赛道在 25Q4 展现出了较强的韧性，其中单季医药基金/非药基金针对化学制剂持仓在医药 中占比+0.82%/-2.36%。受到地缘政治因素扰动，CXO 板块持仓比例有所下降。医疗设备赛道得益于脑机接口、手术机 器人等创新产品海外映射叠加政策支持，持仓占比有所提升。非药基金对中药有一定加仓，主要系部分中药公司股息 率较高，具备防守属性。基金对药店持仓总体相对平稳。从个股维度来看，恒瑞医药、信达生物等创新药企持股基金 数均有不同程度下降。药明康德四季度持股比例有一定下降，主要是由于地缘政治和股东减持因素影响。泰格医药持 股比例有一定提升，主要是由于国内市场转暖，订单和报价层面均逐步向好。 药品：1 月 20 日，GSK 宣布将以 22 亿美金收购 PART，强化布局 IgE 抗体等炎症和自免领域，预计 26Q1 将完成 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the industry, highlighting a "golden window period" for the short drama sector, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [2][11]. Core Insights - The short drama industry has reached a scale of nearly 1 trillion yuan, surpassing both the film and long video sectors, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% from 2023 to 2026 [11]. - The market for animated dramas is expected to exceed 22 billion yuan by 2026, contributing 50% of the incremental growth in the short drama industry [11]. - ByteDance is positioned as the absolute leader in the animated drama sector, leveraging its "traffic + IP + AI" integrated strategy to dominate the market [2][17]. - The application of AI technology is transforming the production paradigm of animated dramas, reducing production cycles from over 50 days to under 30 days and significantly lowering costs [3][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: The Golden Window for Short Dramas - The short drama market has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, with user engagement increasing, and the average daily viewing time expected to exceed 100 minutes by 2025 [11]. - The market has entered a phase of rapid growth and commercialization, with significant increases in both supply and demand for animated dramas [11][12]. Section 2: AI Reshaping Production Paradigms - AI technologies are enabling a shift from manual production to industrialized generation, with production costs dropping to the thousand-yuan level [3][21]. - The integration of AI in production processes is expected to streamline workflows, reducing the number of steps from 11 to 5 and cutting costs by 60% [3][24]. Section 3: Trends in AI Applications - The report anticipates a significant uptick in AI applications by 2026, driven by the need for software to leverage substantial computational investments [4][31]. - Companies are increasingly integrating AI into their business models, with some reporting that AI-related revenues account for over 10% of total income [4][31]. Section 4: Related Investment Targets - Key investment targets include companies such as DeCai Co., Zhaochi Co., and Wanxing Technology, among others, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in the animated drama and AI sectors [5][40].

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周原油价格继续反弹。主要核心驱动因素仍然在于地缘风险，美国继续调动军事力量以威胁伊朗，同时 哈萨克斯坦油田复产延期，预期 CPC 管道停滞及动力装置火灾导致的油田停产可能延续至 1 月末。另外由于寒冷 天气美国北达科他州产量下滑 8-11 万桶/天。尽管基本面供给过剩但地缘风险成为了市场交易的核心。未来关注 焦点主要在于特朗普是否打击伊朗以及伊朗是否有供应损失。特朗普强调理想油价在 50 美元/桶附近，我们认为 除非特朗普对伊朗地缘出现误判，否则 2026 年地缘冲突带来的价格上涨不具备持续性。当前向上驱动来自于地 缘政治，供需向下的局面仍未改变。截止 1 月 23 日，WTI 现货收于 61.07 美元，环比+1.63 美元；BRENT 现货收 于 68.73 美元，环比+0.95 美元。EIA1 月 16 日当周商业原油库存环比+360.2 万桶，前值+339.1 万桶。其中库欣 原油环比+147.8 万桶，前值+74.5 万桶。汽油库存环比+597.7 万桶，前值+897.7 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the space photovoltaic industry, indicating it may become a new growth area within the photovoltaic sector [3][18]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry in China has achieved significant milestones in areas such as reusable rocket technology and large satellite constellation networking, driving rapid development in the space photovoltaic sector [3][18]. - Space photovoltaic technology benefits from continuous sunlight in space, leading to much higher energy generation efficiency compared to ground-based systems, making it a key support for long-term stable energy supply for spacecraft [3][18]. - The demand for space photovoltaics is expected to grow due to the scaling of satellite networks and upgrades in onboard equipment, driven by both quantity and quality improvements [3][18]. - The long-term development potential of space photovoltaics is becoming increasingly clear, positioning it as a promising new growth area in the photovoltaic industry [3][18]. Related Companies - Potential companies in the space photovoltaic supply chain include: Maiwei Co., Ltd., Yujing Co., Ltd., Xinwei Communication, Lens Technology, Aotwei, Liancheng CNC, and Shuangliang Energy [3][23]. - Companies involved in rocket technology include: Aerospace Power, Feiwo Technology, Western Materials, Aerospace Electromechanical, Chaojie Co., Ltd., Srey New Materials, and Guanglian Aviation [3][23]. - Satellite-related companies include: China Satellite, Mingyang Smart Energy, Sanan Optoelectronics, Shanghai Hanhua, Zhenlei Technology, Aerospace Hongtu, Zhongke Xingtou, Haige Communication, China Satcom, and others [3][23]. - Companies in space computing include: Shunhao Co., Ltd. and Putian Technology [3][23]. - Companies in 3D printing include: Huashu High-Tech, Yinbang Co., Ltd., and Bolite [4][23].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for specific sectors within the mechanical equipment industry, particularly commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics [5][11]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with China completing 50 launches in 2025, accounting for 54% of total space launches, and a significant increase in commercial satellite deployments [5]. - Humanoid robotics is positioned as a transformative industry, with expectations for public sales of humanoid robots by 2027, indicating a pivotal moment for the sector [5]. - The agricultural machinery sector shows positive trends, with both domestic demand and exports improving, particularly for large tractors [5]. - The report identifies various mechanical sub-sectors with differing performance outlooks, including general machinery under pressure, engineering machinery accelerating upward, and stable growth in railway equipment and gas turbines [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Mechanical Equipment Index rose by 2.57% during the week of January 19-23, 2026, ranking 13th among 31 primary industry categories [13]. - Year-to-date, the index has increased by 10.16%, ranking 9th among the same categories, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.57% [16]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector remains under pressure, with a PMI of 50.1% in December, marking the first increase above the threshold in eight months [23]. - Forklift sales in December totaled 111,363 units, with domestic sales down by 5.17% and exports up by 7.97% [23]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing upward momentum, with excavator sales reaching 23,095 units in December, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [32]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector shows steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% growth since 2025 [41]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with the global new ship price index at 184.65, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.38% [43]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing, with high demand in the Middle East and OPEC+ balancing pressures expected to support oil prices [45]. Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to benefit from improved steel profitability due to declining raw material prices, leading to increased demand [49]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for gas turbines in the first three quarters of 2025 [51].