Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.21% to $12,133.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 5.95% to 98,700 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 14.96% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 88,200 tons year-on-year [1] - High copper prices are suppressing market demand, leading to a decline in operating rates for domestic wire and cable enterprises [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.03% to $2,956.50 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.99% to 22,400 yuan per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 617,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 17,000 tons [2] - The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% due to weak orders and high aluminum prices [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.24% to $4,505.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 15.73 tons to 1,068.27 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks are influencing the gold market, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [3] - The market is anticipating significant developments in international relations that could impact gold prices [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 3.33% this week [4] - China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is boosting demand forecasts for rare earths [4] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 6.94% to 103,400 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 3.22% to 89,800 yuan per ton [5] - Lithium production increased to 22,200 tons this week, with a slight rise in output [5] - The supply-demand balance remains stable, with strong demand from the new energy sector supporting high prices [5] Group 6: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.85% this week, attributed to profit-taking by speculative funds [4] - The outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [4] - Resource scarcity and reduced production from overseas mines are expected to support upward price trends [4] Group 7: Tin - Tin price decreased by 1.07% this week, with inventory increasing by 4.72% [4] - Supply disruptions in major overseas tin mining regions are contributing to price fluctuations [4] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to expected demand growth in sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [4] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 7.0% to $15,700 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 12.0% to 125,000 yuan per ton [5] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential supply tightening from Indonesia [5] - Current market dynamics reflect a balance between strong expectations and weak demand realities [5]

AIDC：本周液冷板块情绪持续冲高，在确定性的行业趋势和国内头部企业带动的份额渗透趋势下，市场估值预期切换 至远期业绩，坚定看好国内企业在全球液冷市场后续地位提升所带来的板块投资机会。 电网：1）思源电气与宁德时代签署三年合作备忘录彰显储能领域战略投入，3 年 50GWh 合作规模有望形成显著业绩贡 献，进一步打开成长空间，维持重点推荐；2）国网输变电设备 6 批招标 132 亿元，前 6 批招标 919 亿元，同比+26%， 主网建设稳步推进;3）11 月变压器/高压开关出口 8/5 亿美元，同比+16%/+37%,看好海外电力设备需求长周期高景气。 氢能与燃料电池：发改委针对绿氢氨醇规划再落一子，"需求牵引供给"夯实氢能产业基础，"灰氢替代"瞄准存量市 场、"绿色船燃"卡位增量赛道，融入现代基础设施体系，氢能有望获得长期、稳定的战略投入和系统性政策支持。 本周重要行业事件： 风光储：上交所发布商业火箭企业上市标准；能源局发布 11 月风光新增装机；三部委印发首批国家级零碳园区名单； 发改委、能源局印发《电力中长期市场基本规则》、《关于促进光热发电规模化发展的若干意见》；市监总局在安徽合 肥对光伏行业开展价 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - There is a divergence in the outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2026 among leading global crypto institutions, primarily concerning the existence of Bitcoin's four-year market cycle and the uncertainty of the U.S. interest rate cuts [1][11] - The transition of crypto mining companies to AI data centers is seen as a positive trend, with companies expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power [3][38] - The U.S. is expected to see significant developments in asset tokenization and prediction markets, which may drive the next wave of crypto market growth [4][46] Summary by Sections 1. Observing the Fed's Rate Cut Rhythm - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 8.6% in 2025, with Bitcoin's price declining by 6.1%, marking the first year to break a three-year growth streak [2][12] - The price of Bitcoin is correlated with global M2 growth rates, which are currently weaker than in previous cycles, suggesting that the performance of the industry in 2026 will depend on the pace and scale of monetary easing by major economies [2][16] 2. U.S. Crypto Mining Transitioning to AI Data Centers - The cost of Bitcoin mining has risen significantly, with the average cost including depreciation reaching $111,557 per BTC, exceeding the current Bitcoin price [3][39] - The U.S. energy department anticipates a need for an additional 100GW of peak power supply by 2030, with a significant portion allocated for data centers, making the transition of mining companies to AI services a natural choice [3][38] 3. U.S. Rapidly Advancing Asset and Prediction Market Tokenization - The Nasdaq has applied to the SEC to launch tokenized stocks, with expectations for tokenized stocks to trade alongside traditional stocks by the third quarter of 2026 [4][46] - The monthly betting amounts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by November 2025, indicating explosive growth in demand for event contracts [4][48] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with substantial self-owned power capacity, low debt ratios, and low market value per watt of power, as well as those collaborating with major firms like Google and Amazon [5][43] - It also recommends prioritizing investments in leading cryptocurrency companies during this cyclical opportunity [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 5% in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached approximately 180.6 billion pieces, while revenue decreased by 3.7% to 137.65 billion yuan [2]. - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remained stable, and the report recommends Haichen Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,612 flights per day, reflecting a 1.79% year-on-year growth. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector indicates a mixed performance, with container shipping rates showing a slight increase, while dry bulk shipping rates have decreased. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil tanker operations [5]. - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with highway freight traffic increasing by 2.02% week-on-week, and the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume [6][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.3% during the week of December 20-26, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.9%. The logistics sector had the highest gain at 5.5%, while the aviation sector saw a decline of 0.7% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The report notes a slowdown in container shipping declines, with support from seasonal demand and long-term contracts. However, it warns of potential downward pressure on rates in January due to increased capacity [24]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1,146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [25]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a total passenger volume of 60.17 million in November, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [58]. - The report highlights that airlines are expected to see significant profit increases in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The report indicates that national railway passenger volume reached 331 million in November, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%, while freight volume was 460 million tons, up 1.16% [83]. - The highway freight traffic showed a slight increase, with a total of 55.44 million trucks passing through highways during the week of December 16-21 [89].

IDC：本周 IDC 指数+3.73%，本月以来，IDC 指数+4.48%。字节初步计划明年投入 1600 亿元人民币资本开支，其中将 在 AI 处理器上花费 850 亿元人民币；豆包的日均活跃用户数已突破 1 亿大关。国产链有望加速向上。 核心数据更新： 通信周观点： 1）英伟达战略性整合 Groq，并重组自身云服务团队：A）英伟达与 Groq 已达成非独家许可协议，将把 Groq 的 AI 推 理技术整合进未来产品中。英伟达此举意在通过吸纳 Groq 的技术与人才，补强其在高能效推理领域的短板并强化其 在 AI 推理芯片上的布局。B）12 月 23 日，英伟达于上周对自身云团队进行了重组，表明 CEO 黄仁勋已经放弃与 AWS 正面竞争的想法。重整后，这支被称为 DGX Cloud 的云团队将与较新的云服务 DGX Cloud Lepton 合并，并将主要服 务于英伟达工程师对英伟达芯片的需求。我们认为英伟达能够通过组织变革持续优化其长期竞争能力，持续看好与 Groq 合作对英伟达高性能推理芯片研发的促进作用。2）三星电子、SK 海力士等存储供应商已上调明年 HBM3E 价格， 涨幅接近 20%。考虑到通 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the cryptocurrency market in Q1 2026, indicating a neutral to bearish sentiment due to expected market conditions and macroeconomic factors [4]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant options expiration, with a total value of approximately $28.5 billion for BTC and ETH options expiring on December 26, 2025, which is double the value from the previous year [10][11]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.93 trillion, reflecting a week-over-week increase of 1.7%. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices saw slight declines of 0.9% and 1.8%, respectively [10][11]. - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains at 28, indicating a state of fear in the market, with trading volumes continuing to decline for five consecutive weeks [11][17]. - The report highlights a potential "tax loss harvesting window" as Bitcoin has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, which may incentivize investors to sell losing positions [24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.93 trillion, with Bitcoin closing at $87,301 and Ethereum at $2,926. The market is experiencing a significant options expiration event, which historically leads to accelerated market movements [10][11]. - The average holding price for Bitcoin is approximately $56,206, indicating that current prices are below the short-term investors' cost basis [11] - Trading volumes have decreased significantly, with a reported 11.8% drop in global cryptocurrency transaction volumes and a 29.4% decline in Coinbase's spot trading volume [17][18]. Global Policy and Industry News - The People's Bank of China has released new rules for the cross-border payment system, including digital currency research as a focus area [2]. - Russia is increasing support for the cryptocurrency market, allowing retail investors to participate in crypto trading and recognizing the stability of Bitcoin mining on the ruble exchange rate [2][23]. - Japan is planning to promote the digital securitization of local government bonds, while South Korea's BC Card has completed a pilot for cryptocurrency payments [24]. Company News - MSCI has proposed to exclude companies with over 50% of their assets in digital assets from its global investable market index, potentially forcing 39 companies to sell $10 to $15 billion in crypto assets [26][27]. - Tether is set to launch USAT, a stablecoin compliant with U.S. regulations, while Kraken plans to introduce a prediction market by 2026 [26][28]. - Coinbase has announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company, a startup focused on prediction markets, to enhance its trading platform [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises caution in the cryptocurrency market for Q1 2026, suggesting a focus on companies transitioning to AI data centers and those with significant power reserves [4][30]. - Companies with potential partnerships with Google in the crypto mining sector, such as Hut 8 and Cipher Mining, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [30].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the medical device sector, particularly in brain-computer interface devices, which are expected to see accelerated commercialization due to supportive policies [1][3]. Core Insights - Recent policies have significantly increased support for innovation in medical devices, with the National Medical Products Administration actively promoting faster market entry for brain-computer interface devices, indicating a diverse application landscape and substantial future potential [1][3]. - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing positive developments, such as GSK's approval of mepolizumab for a new indication in COPD patients, marking it as the first monthly administered biologic in China, which is expected to reduce the annual incidence of severe exacerbations significantly [1][32]. - The report highlights the approval of Wegovy® tablets in the U.S. for weight management, emphasizing its potential impact on the market as the first oral GLP-1 receptor agonist for this purpose [37][40]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - Mepolizumab has been approved for COPD treatment in China, with a monthly dosing schedule, targeting a significant patient population [1][32]. - The A/H share innovation drug sector maintains high activity levels, with new drug approvals and cross-border transactions remaining robust [16][28]. Biologics - Wegovy® tablets have been approved in the U.S. for weight management, showing similar weight loss efficacy to its injectable counterpart, with a significant portion of participants achieving substantial weight loss [37][40]. CXO and Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - The CXO sector continues to show upward momentum, supported by a stable order backlog, with November financing levels slightly above the annual average [44][46]. Medical Devices - The centralized procurement process for high-value medical consumables is progressing steadily, with high selection rates in multiple rounds of bidding, indicating a favorable environment for leading domestic companies [2][52]. Retail Pharmacy - The industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with leading companies expected to benefit from increased market share through mergers and acquisitions [2][3]. Medical Services and Consumer Healthcare - Aier Eye Hospital's acquisition of 39 institutions for 960 million yuan strengthens its market position, with the acquired entities showing signs of financial recovery [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies such as BYD, Geely Automobile, and others in the automotive sector, as well as companies like Li Auto-W, Xpeng Motors-W, and others in the smart technology and robotics sectors [2]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined six key tasks related to the automotive industry, emphasizing domestic demand, innovation, reform, openness, coordinated development, and green transformation, which are expected to stabilize and boost automotive demand [12][13]. - The report highlights that passenger car exports have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 20% for six consecutive months, with expectations for double-digit growth in wholesale exports by 2026 due to recovering demand in markets like Russia and the increasing export of new energy vehicles [14]. - The report notes that the smart driving experience is expected to improve significantly with advancements in new architectures and high-performance chips, leading to increased consumer acceptance and sales for leading companies in smart driving technology [17][20]. Industry Data Tracking Market and Sector Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shenwan Automotive Index rose by 2.74% [21]. - The top five stocks with the highest gains this week included Chaojie Co. (+41.6%), Longji Machinery (+33.7%), and others, while the top five stocks with the largest declines included Meidong Automotive (-6.5%) and others [28]. Passenger Car Sales Data - In December 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 568,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while the retail sales were 536,000 units, also down 11% year-on-year [4][32]. - For November 2025, wholesale sales were 2.991 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with new energy vehicle wholesale sales at 1.694 million units, up 17.6% year-on-year [5][35]. - The report indicates that the export of passenger cars in November was 594,000 units, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle exports reaching 273,000 units, up 244.1% year-on-year [51][57]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the rapid development of smart technology and robotics, with significant advancements in autonomous driving and AI integration in vehicles, indicating a shift towards a more intelligent automotive market [17][19]. - The report also mentions the increasing focus on new energy vehicles and the expansion of charging infrastructure, which has reached 19.322 million charging points, marking a 52% year-on-year growth [73].

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价上涨后回落。白宫下令美军在未来至少两个月内专注于对委内瑞拉石油的"封锁"，当前美国更 倾向于使用经济手段，而非军事手段向委内瑞拉施压。此外，海湾地区裂痕加深，沙特对也门发动空袭，中东局 势存升级风险。地缘因素推升油价。本周五，因泽连斯基将于周日与特朗普讨论领土问题，市场预期和平协议或 进一步推进，叠加供应过剩担忧加剧，油价快速回落。整体看，当前油价仍围绕地缘与供需博弈。截止 12 月 26 日，WTI 现货收于 56.74 美元，环比+0.59 美元；BRENT 现货收于 63.73 美元。EIA12 月 12 日当周商业原油库存 环比-127.4 万桶，前值-181.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-74.2 万桶，前值+30.8 万桶。汽油库存环比+480.8 万 桶，前值+639.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+0.3%至 94.8%。美国原油库存下降，净进口量环比减少。美国产量 1384.3 万桶/天，美国净进口数据环比-27.9%。截至 12 月 23 日当周，美国活跃石油钻机数环 ...

产业研究中心 2025 年 12 月 27 日 产业研究深度 | 高端装备制造 灵巧手： 结构向 高承载发展，四缸 数量或倍增 为企业客户提供全方位的"产业+金融"研究服务！ 1 | 证券研究报告 | 核心要点 灵巧手是一种模拟人类手部功能的高自由度机器人末端执行器，其核心价值在于突破传统机 械夹爪的局限性，赋予机器人接近人手般的灵活性与适应性。它通过多关节、多模态感知和 智能控制技术，实现复杂物体的抓取、操作与交互。灵巧手是人形机器人拟人化的核心标志， 也是其成本占比最高的零部件之一，约占整机成本的 20%-30%。未来人形机器人迭代提供的 价值，将很大程度上通过灵巧手展现的柔性和协同能力来体现。 企业成功切入灵巧手领域需深度融合高自由度仿生结构设计（自由度数量增加）、微型高功 率密度驱动（空心杯电机和无刷有齿槽电机）、精密传动（行星滚柱丝杠）以及多模态感知 （触觉传感器），形成系统性解决方案。 灵巧手是机器人的核心部件。根据特斯拉公开资料，特斯拉第三代灵巧手相比于第二代的变 化为：（1）手部自由度从 11 个提升到 22 个，对应的电机数量将可能提升到 22 个。（2）驱 动器装载部位由手部改为手腕。驱动 ...