1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer has rebounded to 48%, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous period. Most indicator quantiles have risen, with only a few showing a decline [13]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 25%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range has risen to 5 (25%), in the neutral range to 8 (40%), and in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%) [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数转为回升至 48% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has rebounded 8 percentage points to 48%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, and market interest rate quantile have dropped by 8, 2, and 1 percentage points respectively, while others have increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% - **Transaction Heat Indicators**: The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%, with the proportion in the cold range dropping to 0%. The TL/T long - short ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and most other indicator quantiles have slightly rebounded [18]. - **Institutional Behavior Indicators**: The proportions of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remain 25%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The trading - allocation buying volume quantile has increased by 22 percentage points, and the quantiles of money tightness expectation, allocation disk strength, and listed company wealth management buying volume have also slightly rebounded [22]. - **Interest Rate Spread**: The policy interest rate spread has narrowed by 3bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising by 20 percentage points to 54% and moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp to 54bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the Agricultural Development - Guokai spread remains flat. The average of the three spreads remains at 17bp, and its quantile has slightly dropped by 1 percentage point to 59%, still in the neutral range [27]. - **Price Ratio**: The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and in the neutral range has increased to 25%. The commodity price - ratio quantile has rebounded by 16 percentage points to 34%, moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The stock - bond and real - estate price - ratio quantiles have also rebounded by 3 and 14 percentage points respectively [30].

事件概况 1 月 16 日，为贯彻《国务院关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》部署要求，落实《中华人民 共和国期货和衍生品法》规定，促进衍生品市场规范健康发展，证监会发布《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征 求意见稿）》。 核心内容 资本市场活跃度大幅下行；政策落地进度不及预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 《征求意见稿》主要内容包括：一是明确办法的适用范围，中国证监会依法监管的衍生品交易及相关活动适用本办法。 二是明确衍生品市场管理风险、配置资源、服务实体经济的功能定位，以及参与衍生品交易活动的基本原则。三是明 确衍生品合约的开发条件及程序。四是明确各类衍生品合约的基本交易规则。五是明确履约保障制度。六是明确交易 者适当性标准。七是加强衍生品监测监控与跨市场监管。八是明确衍生品交易禁止性与限制性要求。九是加强衍生品 经营机构监管。十是加强衍生品交易场所、衍生品结算机构、衍生品交易报告库等衍生品市场基础设施监管。十一是 明确监督管理和法律责任。 事件简评 鼓励衍生品稳步、健康发展：证监会支持衍生品市场稳步发展，发挥管理风险、配置资源、服务实体经济的功能。鼓 励利用衍生品市场从事套期保值等风 ...

1）台积电资本支出及业绩超预期：A）台积电公布 2025 年 Q4 财务报告，公司当季营收为 337.3 亿美元，同比+25.5%， 环比+1.9%。全面上修业绩增速与毛利率指引，将 2024 至 2029 年 AI 营收 CAGR 从原先的"40%中段"提升至"50%中 高段"。B）2026 年资本支出规模进一步扩大至 520 亿至 560 亿美元。公司管理层强调，约七成至八成资本将投向先 进制程技术，其余用于特殊制程、先进封装等领域，以应对持续旺盛的 AI 芯片需求。全球 AI 算力需求持续旺盛。2） 国产芯片、国产大模型、国产应用携手共进，加速国产链向上：A）首个完全依托国产芯片全程训练的 SOTA 多模态模 型 GLM-Image，开源 24 小时内登顶全球知名 AI 开源社区 Hugging Face Trending，标志国产 AI 模型的端到端自主研 发能力在国际竞争中取得突破。B）DeepSeek 发布新论文，提出 Engram 机制，在等参数、等算力条件下显著提升模型 在知识调用、推理、代码、数学等任务上的表现。同时，DeepSeek 开源相关记忆模块 Engram。我们认为此机制意味 着在 ...

Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share market has shown a "good start" with a cumulative increase of 5.2% in the Wind All A Index, and the average daily trading volume has exceeded 30 trillion yuan[5] - The leading sectors include media, computer, non-ferrous metals, and military industry, with year-to-date gains of 16.0%, 14.0%, 14.0%, and 9.0% respectively, reflecting the current market focus on AI and geopolitical factors[5] Economic Indicators - In December 2025, China's PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the highest monthly increase since 2024, driven by improvements in non-ferrous and technology sector prices[12] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose by 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, influenced by AI-driven demand for electricity[12] Strategic Trends - The two main strategic lines for A-share pricing in 2026 are AI, reflecting the U.S. focus on technology for growth, and "anti-involution," which corresponds to China's push for reform and high-quality development[3] - The "anti-involution" strategy is entering a new phase, emphasizing "quality over price" and a shift in local government performance perspectives[15] Policy Changes - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is a national-level manifestation of the "anti-involution" strategy, aimed at promoting price increases among leading companies while eliminating those relying on low prices[18] - Recent regulatory actions against monopolistic practices in the photovoltaic industry signal a commitment to fair competition and the acceleration of "anti-involution" efforts[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical tensions and slower-than-expected progress in "anti-involution" reforms, which could disrupt market dynamics[4][21]

3D 打印 商业航天 3D 打印浪潮将至 投资逻辑： 7 大技术路线加持，3D 打印从概念走向量产。3D 打印相比传统加工方式，通过省去模具或工装的需求大幅降低了初 始成本，但其成本优势会随着生产规模的扩大而减弱，具有和传统制造业不同的成本曲线。但随着 3D 打印技术进步， 单位生产成本正不断下降，在更大的批量上相比传统加工工艺也开始具有优势，在对成本最敏感的消费电子领域也开 始看到成熟应用落地。同时经过多年发展，目前包含了粉末床熔融、定向能量沉积、材料挤出成形等 7 大技术路线， 加工材料从高分子到金属覆盖面持续加大，满足不同应用领域需求，我们认为 3D 打印技术已经具备了大规模量产寄 出。 为什么 3D 打印可以成为商业航天最终加工解决方案。3D 打印首先从设计角度带来全新的产品设计理念，从制造引导 设计转为设计引导制造，基于功能优先设计/轻量化设计理念实现功能集成、零部件数量大幅下降、结构优化，带来 轻量化等传统工艺不可比拟的优势，尤其是在对尺寸、重量非常敏感的航天领域优势更加突出。更短的研发生产周期 和供应链也降低了全生命周期成本。同时我们看到各类打印材料在航天领域的研发与应用也逐步成熟，3D 打印具 ...

事件 1 月 15 日，人民银行网站发布了 2025 年金融统计数据，同时国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍货币金融政策支持实体经 济高质量发展成效，并答记者问。发布会重点有两项内容：一是对 2025 年数据进行解读，二是发布监管层面已经考 虑比较成熟、年初先行出台的一批货币金融政策。 事件点评： 对券商板块来说，经营环境有望持续改善，业务条线全面受益。 1、直接融资扩容，投行业务空间打开。2025 年社会融资规模增量达到 35.6 万亿元。从结构上看，直接融资达到 16.7 万亿元，占比 46.9%，相较 2020 年高 7.8 个百分点。配合"加大对科技创新、民营企业支持力度"的表态，预计股权、 债券融资环境将持续优化，为券商投行业务提供项目储备。 2、货币政策维持宽松，市场流动性充裕，利好资本市场业务。2025 年 12 月末，社会融资规模存量同比增长 8.3%， 广义货币供应量 M2 同比增长 8.5%，明显高于名义 GDP 增速；且央行明确 2026 年将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，"降 准降息仍有空间"。这一环境有望降低券商资金成本，扩大资本中介与自营业务的利差空间；同时结合"存款搬家"， 有利于中长期资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.21 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.16 billion RMB, up 54.5% year-on-year. The Q4 performance was particularly strong, with revenue of 7.38 billion RMB, reflecting a 46.1% increase, and a net profit of 970 million RMB, up 74.1% year-on-year [2]. - The sustained outperformance in 2025 is attributed to the continuous release of overseas orders since Q2 2023 and the delivery of high-margin domestic orders for 750kV transformers [3]. - The company significantly increased its market share in the domestic power grid bidding, with a 26% year-on-year increase in the State Grid's bidding for power transmission and transformation equipment, and an 82% increase in the company's successful bids [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing investments in the national grid, projected to reach 4 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and from the ongoing shortage of power transformers in overseas markets, particularly North America [4]. - The company is optimistic about new business opportunities in supercapacitors, ultra-high voltage converters, and energy storage systems, with partnerships aimed at expanding its market presence [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.16 billion RMB, 4.31 billion RMB, and 5.76 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 36%, and 34% [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 38, 28, and 21 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Report Summary 1. Core View The report focuses on the supply and trading situation of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics of local government bonds [3][4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - From January 5 - 9, 2026, local government bonds worth 117.66 billion yuan were issued, including 87.43 billion yuan of new special bonds and 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts" [3][10]. - As of January 9, 2026, the issuance of special refinancing bonds in January totaled 132.14 billion yuan, accounting for 46.3% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10]. - The average issuance interest rate of 10 - year local bonds in the latest week was 2.03%, slightly down from the previous week. The coupon average of new 20 - year and 30 - year local bonds was above 2.47%, with the 30 - year long - term bond coupon reaching a 25 - year high. The spread of ultra - long local bonds narrowed marginally, and the spread average of bonds with a term of over 10 years was mostly between 15 - 20bp [3][16]. - In the first week after the new year, local bond issuance was concentrated. Only Shandong and Zhejiang had new bond issuances in January, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in these regions were above 2.3% [3][16]. 2.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The prices of ultra - long local bonds fell significantly. Last week, the weekly declines of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indexes were 0.07% and 0.42% respectively, between those of the same - term treasury bonds and ultra - long credit bonds [4][17]. - The trading volume of Shandong local bonds increased significantly last week, with the weekly trading volume rising from about a hundred before the new year to 201. The trading of local bonds in Sichuan and Jiangsu was also relatively active [4][17]. - In terms of trading returns, the returns of over 20 - year long - term bonds in Shandong and Henan could reach 2.3%, while the average returns of government bonds in other regions were mostly between 1.8% and 2.3% [4][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "24 Chanrong 08" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "24 Hongjian 01" had a relatively high deviation in valuation price. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "24 CCB Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 CEB Bond 02" had a relatively high deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, transportation bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 0.5 years; the transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 1 year. By industry, the bonds in the household appliances industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "24 Chanrong 08", "24 Chanrong 06", etc. in the non - bank financial industry had relatively large deviations in valuation price and high valuation yield deviations. "24 Zhonghua 08" in the comprehensive industry and "26 Lanhua MTN001" in the coal industry also had certain deviations in valuation price [3]. Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - "24 Hongjian 01" in the urban investment industry had a relatively high deviation in valuation price. Many bank - related Tier 2 and perpetual bonds also had positive deviations in valuation price, such as "24 CCB Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", "24 BOC Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", etc. [5]. Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Bonds of state - owned banks such as "24 CCB Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", "24 BOC Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B" had relatively large deviations in valuation price. Some bonds of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks also showed certain deviations [7]. Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Bonds like "25 CEB Bond 02", "25 Huishang Bank 01" had small positive deviations in valuation price and relatively stable valuation yields [8]. Tracking of Bonds with Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds such as "24 Ruimao 02" in the transportation industry and "23 Chanrong 05" in the non - bank financial industry had high transaction yields [9]. Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval [2]. Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, and the proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 0.5 years was the highest [2]. Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and the proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 1 year was the highest [2]. Discounted Transaction Proportion and Transaction Scale of Non - financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The bonds in the household appliances industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of CNY 160 million to CNY 210 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 103.87% to 167.58% [2]. - The demand for high-end sorting machines is strong, leading to rapid growth in performance, supported by ongoing technological research and product iteration [3]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and upgrading technology, with a notable shift towards high-end products, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [3]. - The establishment of the "Malaysia Production and Operations Center" is expected to accelerate the company's globalization strategy and support long-term growth by improving responsiveness to international customers [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 716 million, CNY 1.226 billion, and CNY 1.816 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 76.18%, 71.08%, and 48.16% respectively [5]. - The expected net profit for the same period is CNY 196 million, CNY 375 million, and CNY 580 million, with growth rates of 149.46%, 91.49%, and 54.61% respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 3.3, CNY 6.2, and CNY 9.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].