在"抢出口"、"抢转口"的带动下，即使面临高基数，二季度出口也有望实现 3%-5%左右的相关高增。综合来看，我 们依旧预计二季度 GDP 同比增速能够实现 5.2%左右的增长，对应上半年 GDP 同比增速或在 5.3%左右。4 月统计局数据 和 5 月高频数据也显示，4、5 月月度 GDP 增速或在 5.4%、5.3%左右。这与需求侧的预测也相符合。 上半年经济的平稳开局，为政策应对外部的不确定性提供了很大的空间。三季度即使出口下滑压力开始显现，存量政 策使用也接近尾声，增量政策也有足够的腾挪空间。 风险提示 文中对二季度 GDP 的测算基于模型结果，实际数据与按照此前经验估算的数据或存在一定的差异。 出口受贸易摩擦的影响较为明显，后续或出现明显波动，对经济的影响超预期 消费主要受益于政策的以旧换新，关注后续政策对基本面的扰动 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 宏观经济点评 扫码获取更多服务 现在国内经济大致可以分为三条主线，一是贸易摩擦下的出口；二是政策刺激下的投资和消费；三是经济真实的内生 动力。 随着贸易摩擦缓和出口再度进入"抢出口"阶段后，我们认为二季度基本面真实的成色与韧性或更加值得关注。 第一，补贴内 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the stock of local bonds reaching 50.79 trillion yuan as of May 16, 2025 [3][11]. - The issuance of local government bonds last week totaled 197.249 billion yuan, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [4][18]. - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend [5][36]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of May 16, 2025, the stock of local bonds reached 50.79 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [3][11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were all over 1 trillion yuan. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of May 16, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock, with each exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had a stock of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 197.249 billion yuan were issued, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [4][18]. - As of May 16, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in May had reached 30.168 billion yuan, accounting for 5.47% of the monthly local bond issuance [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of 7 - 10 - year local bonds last week had a relatively high proportion, reaching 42.26%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the 30 - year local bond issuance rate and the same - term treasury bond slightly widened to 23.65BP, and the spread of the 20 - year local bond to the same - term treasury bond slightly narrowed to 14.35BP [4][27]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week increased slightly compared with two weeks ago, and the primary tender sentiment significantly recovered [4][27]. - Five provinces issued new bonds last week. Anhui had the largest issuance volume this month, with terms mainly concentrated in 7 - 10 years and 10 - 20 years. Fujian followed, with terms mainly concentrated within 7 years and 10 - 20 years. Guangxi, Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan also had relatively large new issuance amounts. Except for Guangxi and Inner Mongolia, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of May 16, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.9%, with a spread of 22.07BP to the same - term treasury bond, at the 72.6% quantile since 2024. The quantiles of the price spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 72.6% and 88.2% respectively [5][36]. - The turnover rate of local bonds rebounded last week, and the turnover rates of all term varieties significantly increased compared with two weeks ago. The highest weekly turnover rate was for varieties within 10 years, at 1.02% [5][43]. - In terms of regions, Shandong had over 300 trading transactions and Jiangsu had over 200 trading transactions last week. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 16.53 years, with an average yield of 1.96% [5][43]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 57.304 billion yuan, of which the purchase of varieties over 20 - 30 years accounted for 73%. Other institutions were all net sellers [5][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its fundamentals, with a strong technological layout and a low-cost strategy, indicating robust momentum under the current circumstances. The focus should be on the status of new vehicle launches [3]. - The company delivered 94,008 vehicles in Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 330.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7%. Revenue for Q1 reached 15.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 141.4% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.9% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 15.6%, with the automotive business gross margin at 10.5%, showing improvements compared to previous periods [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 R&D and SG&A expenses were 1.98 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan respectively, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios at 12.5% and 12.3% [1]. - The company recorded a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1, with a calculated loss of 7,000 yuan per vehicle sold [1][2]. Sales and Market Outlook - The reduction in losses is attributed to strong sales of popular models and an increase in gross margin despite a higher proportion of lower-margin models [2]. - The company anticipates some pressure in Q2 due to increased market competition but expects stable sales driven by export growth and new vehicle deliveries [2]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are 94.62 billion yuan for 2025, 153.27 billion yuan for 2026, and 175.70 billion yuan for 2027, indicating substantial growth [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its fundamentals, with a strong technological layout and a low-cost strategy, indicating robust momentum under the current circumstances [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw the company deliver 94,008 vehicles, with revenue reaching 15.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 330.8% and 141.4% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved to 10.5%, driven by a favorable sales structure and cost management [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Deliveries**: In Q1 2025, the company delivered 94,008 vehicles, with revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 141.4% [1]. - **Cost Structure**: R&D and SG&A expenses were 1.98 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan respectively, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios at 12.5% and 12.3% [1]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin was 15.6%, with a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1 [1]. The company expects to improve profitability through enhanced vehicle delivery and cost management [2]. - **Future Projections**: Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 94.62 billion yuan, 153.27 billion yuan, and 175.70 billion yuan respectively, with significant growth rates anticipated [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 16.98 per share based on an 8x PS valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading SaaS provider in the domestic enterprise service sector, with a significant shift towards cloud services, which are expected to account for 81.6% of revenue by 2024 [8][10]. - The transition to cloud services has enhanced revenue growth resilience, with consistent positive growth from 2016 to 2024, and improved operational efficiency reflected in a 10% CAGR in revenue per employee from 2020 to 2024 [8][29][31]. - The company has developed three core product solutions targeting different customer segments: Xinghan & Cangqiong for large enterprises, Xingkong for medium enterprises, and Xingchen for small businesses, with high renewal rates indicating strong customer retention [8][10][25]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 70.1 billion, RMB 80.5 billion, and RMB 93.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits turning positive by 2025 [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The projected revenue growth rates are 16.71% for 2023, 10.15% for 2024, and 11.99% for 2025, with net profit growth rates expected to be 46.07% in 2024 and 156.06% in 2025 [7][3]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from traditional ERP software to a cloud-native EBC model, enhancing its service offerings and operational capabilities [14][19]. - The cloud transformation has led to a significant increase in contract liabilities and a decrease in accounts receivable, indicating improved cash flow management [41][42]. Growth Drivers - The demand for digital transformation among small and medium enterprises is driving the adoption of the company's SaaS solutions, with a potential market space of approximately RMB 70 billion for the Xingkong product line [10][25]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the domestic market, with over 2,110 clients for its cloud-native EBC solutions, reflecting its competitive advantage in the industry [8][10]. AI and SaaS Integration - The company has been integrating AI capabilities into its SaaS offerings, enhancing operational efficiency and creating new revenue-sharing opportunities through its Agent model [8][10][42].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 16.98 per share based on an 8x PS valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading SaaS provider in the domestic enterprise service sector, with a significant shift towards cloud services, which are expected to account for 81.6% of revenue by 2024 [8][10]. - The transition to cloud services has enhanced revenue growth resilience, operational efficiency, and cash flow health, with the operating profit margin (OPM) for cloud services turning positive in 2023 and projected to reach 6% in 2024 [42]. - The company has developed three core product solutions targeting large, medium, and small enterprises, which are expected to drive substantial revenue growth in the coming years [8][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of RMB 70.1 billion, RMB 80.5 billion, and RMB 93.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits turning positive by 2025 [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The projected revenue growth rates for the company from 2023 to 2027 are 16.71%, 10.15%, 11.99%, 14.96%, and 16.42% respectively, with net profit growth rates showing significant improvement, particularly in 2025 with a forecasted growth of 156.06% [7]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share are expected to improve from -0.06 in 2023 to 0.30 in 2027 [7]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from traditional ERP software to a cloud-native EBC model, enhancing its service offerings and operational capabilities [14][19]. - The company’s cloud transformation has been marked by a significant increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR), which is projected to grow by 20% to RMB 34.3 billion in 2024 [31]. Growth Drivers - The company’s core products, including the "Cangyun" and "Xinghan" solutions, have achieved high net dollar retention rates of 108% and 94% respectively, indicating strong customer loyalty and demand [8][10]. - The demand for digital transformation among small and medium enterprises is expected to create a market space of approximately RMB 70 billion for the company’s services [10]. AI and SaaS Integration - The company has integrated AI capabilities into its SaaS offerings, enhancing service delivery and operational efficiency, with the launch of the "Jindie Cloud Cangyun GPT" platform [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10][8]. Core Insights - The company has entered a profitable phase, with significant improvements in user value and operational efficiency, particularly in its gaming and advertising segments [4][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 24%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 360 million HKD, marking a turnaround to profitability [4][5]. - The company is experiencing record-high monthly active users (36.8 million) and daily usage time (108 minutes), indicating strong user engagement and growth [5]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.688 billion HKD, 33.499 billion HKD, and 36.145 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of 2.147 billion HKD, 3.140 billion HKD, and 3.972 billion HKD [3][8]. - The company has shown a consistent increase in gross margin, reaching 36.3% in Q1 2025, with high-margin businesses like gaming and advertising contributing significantly to revenue [5][6]. - The average revenue per user is expected to grow, supported by a stable base of premium members and a thriving ecosystem for content creators [7]. Business Segments - The gaming segment, particularly driven by the title "Three Kingdoms: Strategy", has shown a remarkable revenue increase of 76% year-on-year, contributing 17.3 billion HKD in Q1 2025 [6]. - Advertising revenue reached 2 billion HKD in Q1 2025, up 20% year-on-year, largely due to the growth of performance-based advertising driven by AI capabilities [6]. - Value-added services, including premium memberships, generated 2.81 billion HKD in Q1 2025, with a stable membership base of 23.5 million [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10][8]. Core Views - The company is entering a profitable era with significant user value being released, as evidenced by a strong growth trajectory in revenue and profitability [4][5]. - The gaming segment continues to show robust growth, with a notable increase in revenue driven by popular titles [6][8]. - The advertising revenue is experiencing rapid growth, supported by AI-driven strategies that enhance operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 22.53 billion in 2023 to HKD 30.69 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.37% [3][8]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching HKD 2.15 billion, with a significant improvement in profitability metrics [3][8]. - The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of HKD 360 million in Q1 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [4][5]. User Engagement - Monthly active users reached a record high of 368 million in Q1 2025, with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [5][8]. - The number of paying users has also increased, with 32 million monthly paying users reported [5][8]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, revenue from the gaming segment was HKD 1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 76%, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [6][8]. - Advertising revenue reached HKD 2 billion in Q1 2025, up 20% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in effective advertising [6][8]. - Value-added services generated HKD 2.81 billion in Q1 2025, with a stable base of premium members [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10][8]. Core Insights - The company has entered a profitable era with significant user value being released, as evidenced by a strong growth trajectory in revenue and profitability [4][5]. - The gaming segment continues to show robust growth, with a notable increase in revenue driven by popular titles [6][8]. - The advertising revenue is experiencing rapid growth, supported by AI-driven strategies that enhance operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 22,528 million HKD, with a projected increase to 30,688 million HKD by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 19.10% [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 2,147 million HKD, with a significant improvement from a loss of 3,414 million HKD in 2023 [3][8]. - The gross margin has been on an upward trend, reaching 36.3% in Q1 2025, with high-margin businesses like gaming and advertising contributing to this improvement [5][8]. User Engagement and Growth - Monthly active users reached a historical high of 368 million in Q1 2025, with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [5]. - The number of paying users has also increased, with 32 million monthly paying users reported [5][7]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, the company generated 20 billion HKD from advertising, a 20% year-on-year increase, accounting for 29% of total revenue [6]. - The gaming segment contributed 17.3 billion HKD in revenue, marking a 76% increase year-on-year, driven by the success of titles like "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][8]. - Value-added services generated 28.1 billion HKD in Q1 2025, with a stable membership base of 23.5 million [7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30,688 million HKD, 33,499 million HKD, and 36,145 million HKD respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of 2,147 million HKD, 3,140 million HKD, and 3,972 million HKD [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/E ratio of 25.66 in 2025, decreasing to 13.87 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $133.02 based on a 20X PE for 2026 [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of ASIC servers and Ethernet switches, benefiting from the growth in AI inference demand, particularly from major cloud service providers in North America [2][3]. - The company is expected to recover from a short-term decline in server revenue due to Google's TPU product transition, with anticipated growth resuming in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base for ASIC servers, having become a supplier for Meta and secured a project with a leading commercial AI company [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Layout in ASIC Servers and Ethernet Switches - The importance of inference computing power is increasing, and the ASIC industry chain is expected to benefit from this trend [14]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the volume growth of ASIC servers and the expansion of its customer base, particularly with Google and Meta [27][31]. - The Ethernet switch business is poised to grow due to the trend of AI Ethernet networking, with increased demand for high-speed switches [32]. 2. Transition from EMS to ODM - The company is shifting from an EMS model to an ODM model, which is expected to enhance customer binding and improve profitability [47]. - The revenue from the hardware platform solutions (ODM) is projected to grow significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth [50][52]. - The company's gross margin and operating profit margin have been steadily increasing due to the growth of its ODM business [52]. 3. ASIC Industry and Company Alpha - The company is well-positioned in the ASIC server and Ethernet ODM switch market, benefiting from industry trends and new customer acquisitions [3][4]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow significantly over the next few years, with expected profits of $593 million, $765 million, and $871 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]. - The company is expected to gain market share as it expands its customer base and increases the complexity of its products [31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from $7.96 billion in 2023 to $15.89 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.1% [8]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from $467 million in 2023 to $1.296 billion in 2027, reflecting strong operational performance [8].