从更长期的维度来看，综合房价累计跌幅、租金回报率和房价收入比等指标，我们认为全国的房价已接近估值底部， 年内实现止跌回稳的概率不低。但从节奏上看，当前全国房价跌幅收窄、核心城市房价止跌的态势能否在"金三银四" 结束后延续，主要取决于二手房挂牌量和租金价格的变化，这两个指标对于判断房地产市场的变化来说，也具备一定 的领先性。 当前房地产市场已进入止跌回稳的关键验证期。春节假期后，核心城市二手房挂牌量普遍出现回升。未来 2 个月核心 城市二手房挂牌量回升的幅度和持续性将成为影响后续房价走势的关键变量。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 新房方面，本周（2.21-2.28）景气度下行趋缓，47 城新房成交量环比回升，受春节效应扰动，重点城市新房成交面 积同比回落，但较去年农历同期有所改善，同比增长 26.6%。当前新房市场处于淡季向旺季的过渡阶段，新房二手房 需求跷跷板效应持续显现。"金三银四"来临，预计房企将加大推盘力度，优质供给的入市有望带动新房成交改善。 图表1：新房成交由淡季向旺季过渡 0 100 20 ...

维度一：与需求端（销售与房价）分位对比。在房地产周期的诸多链条中，需求端是债市定价最为敏感的环节。今年 1 月地产需求景气度处于 2021 年以来 25%分位，同期 10/30 年国债利率月均值分位约为 20%/25%，两者基本匹配。2 月利率分位有所下探，10/30 年降至约 13%/23%分位，已略低于 1 月地产需求景气周期位置。 维度二：与地产高频指标分位对比。高频指标涵盖土地市场、下游销售与房价。今年 2 月高频口径下的地产周期位置 （27%）略高于 30 年国债利率月均值的分位（23%）。 维度三：与开发与投资指标分位对比。相较于需求侧指标，开发投资类变量与利率相关性偏弱，但历史走势仍呈一定 关联。截至去年 12 月，开发与投资综合分位约为 10%，当前长端利率分位高于开发投资所反映的地产周期位置。 维度四：与上游原材料价格分位对比。截至今年 2 月，建材综合价格分位略低于 10%，低于长端利率分位。 维度五：与地产信用周期分位对比。截至今年 1 月，地产信用周期指标整体仍处于 2021 年以来的最低位附近。相比 之下，当前 10 年与 30 年国债利率分位水平均高于这一信用周期景气位置。 综合以 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from rising chemical prices, with a focus on chemical logistics companies such as Milkyway, Hongchuan Wisdom, Xingtong, Shenghang, and Yongtaiyun [2] - The express delivery sector is seeing price stabilization due to regulatory clarity and a reduction in internal competition, with a positive outlook for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu [2] - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery in flight volumes, with a recommendation for airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines due to expected profit elasticity from ticket price increases [3] - The shipping sector is positively impacted by geopolitical tensions, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to drive up oil shipping rates [4] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 3.3% from February 21 to February 27, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.2% [1][11] - The shipping sector had the highest increase at +11.9%, while the airport sector saw a decline of -1.8% [1][11] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container shipping price index (CCFI) was 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and down 20.8% year-on-year [21] - The oil shipping index (BDTI) increased by 2.2% week-on-week and 91.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand due to geopolitical factors [4][37] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights in China increased by 17.58% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 17.60% [3] - The passenger throughput in January 2026 was 62.99 million, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [55] Road and Rail - The national highway freight traffic was 9.924 million vehicles, down 70.58% week-on-week and down 79.56% year-on-year [5][84] - The railway passenger turnover in December 2025 was 3.23 billion people, up 8.52% year-on-year [82] Express Delivery and Logistics - The total express delivery volume was approximately 806 million pieces, down 77.8% year-on-year [2] - The chemical products price index (CCPI) was 4041 points, down 8.1% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in chemical logistics [2]

投资逻辑 受美伊冲突、美国 2025 年第四季度 GDP 低于预期的影响，本周加密市场转冷。本周 BTC 收盘价为 6.59 万美元， 周环比下滑 3.1%，持仓均价进一步小幅下滑至 54,582 美元/枚；ETH 收盘价为 1,931 美元，周环比下滑 1.9%。加密 货币恐惧贪婪指数本周为 14，市场情绪依然处于极度恐惧区间，交易略有回暖。 全球政策与产业新闻方面：香港将建设数字债券平台并对接区域代币化枢纽，此前已多次发行政府代币化债券。英国 监管机构拟允许加密货币用于博彩支付。法国巴黎银行启动代币化试点，推出法国货币市场基金链上份额。 WisdomTree 获 SEC 批准，实现代币化货币市场基金全天候交易。金融科技和保险巨头 TruStage 试点面向信用合作 社的数字货币。麦通 MSX 拟上线 Pre-IPO 版块，首期将与 Republic 合作推出超千万美元的独角兽申购额度。 公司新闻方面：Coinbase 面向美国所有用户开放股票交易，并与 Yahoo Finance 建立合作，用户可以从在 Yahoo Finance 上研究资产，一键切换到 Coinbase 执行交易。矿企 MARA 将与喜 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controlled beneficiary sectors [4][26]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY27Q1 revenue guidance is strong at $78 billion (±2%), indicating sustained demand for AI [1][26]. - The demand for AI-related products, particularly the new LPU chip, is expected to drive significant growth in the PCB industry, with potential increases in material requirements and production capacity [1][26]. - The report anticipates explosive growth in the ASIC numbers from major tech companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft between 2026 and 2027 [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of AI applications in consumer electronics, particularly within the Apple supply chain and smart glasses, driven by advancements in multi-modal interaction and AI model optimization [5]. - AI mobile applications are expected to see significant growth, with Apple focusing on innovations in chips, systems, and hardware [5]. 2. PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, particularly for copper-clad laminates, driven by the automotive and industrial sectors, as well as AI applications [6][26]. - The report notes that many AI-PCB companies are currently operating at full capacity and are expanding production to meet demand [4][26]. 3. Semiconductor and Components - The semiconductor sector is projected to benefit from increased demand for storage solutions, particularly DRAM, as cloud service providers expand their data center capacities [20][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials in light of global supply chain challenges and export controls [23][25]. 4. Market Trends - The report indicates a robust upward trend in the semiconductor equipment sector, with significant growth expected in 2025 driven by advanced logic processes and increased demand for HBM applications [24]. - The overall electronic industry has shown a positive performance, with specific segments like PCB and passive components leading in growth [35][38]. 5. Company Highlights - Companies like NVIDIA, Micron Technology, and various PCB manufacturers are highlighted as key players benefiting from the current market dynamics [1][26][27]. - The report suggests that firms such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for semiconductor equipment and materials [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on sectors such as green hydrogen, wind power, lithium batteries, and space photovoltaic, indicating strong investment opportunities in these areas [2][3][4][5]. Core Insights - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to focus on "green hydrogen and methanol" as key components of carbon reduction strategies, with potential policy support driving investment [6][11]. - The geopolitical situation in Iran is likely to push up methanol prices, accelerating the transition to green methanol in various industries [11][12]. - The report highlights significant developments in space photovoltaic technology, driven by collaborations between major tech companies, indicating a potential market surge [2][6][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The strategic importance of hydrogen is increasing, with policies expected to support its development as a key energy carrier [3][11]. - The report notes that the economic viability of green hydrogen is approaching, with significant investment opportunities in production and related technologies [11][12]. Wind Power - Wind turbine bidding prices remain high, indicating strong profitability potential in the wind sector [13][16]. - The UK government has publicly released a memorandum on clean energy cooperation, which may catalyze opportunities in offshore wind exports [16][18]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with production rates increasing across various segments [19][20]. - Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium concentrate exports is expected to tighten supply, potentially driving up prices [20][21]. Space Photovoltaics - The report emphasizes the importance of space photovoltaic technology as a future driver of AI computing power, with significant investments expected in related materials and equipment [2][8]. - Key companies in the space photovoltaic sector are recommended for investment due to their potential for growth in this emerging market [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the wind power, photovoltaic, and hydrogen sectors, highlighting specific firms that are well-positioned to benefit from upcoming market trends [34][35][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the duty-free and gold jewelry sectors, recommending continued investment in these areas due to expected long-term growth [5][12][14]. Core Insights - Duty-Free: The duty-free sales during the Spring Festival showed steady performance, with daily shopping amounts increasing by 16.5% year-on-year. However, high market expectations led to temporary stock price pressure. The report anticipates that the recovery of high-end consumption and the return of Japanese tourists will support long-term growth [12][13]. - Gold Jewelry: The gold price has recently broken upward after a period of consolidation. Major brands have successfully implemented price increases, with old gold prices rising by 20%-30%, marking a historical high for the company. Consumer acceptance of these price hikes has exceeded expectations, indicating strong brand power [14][15]. Industry Data Tracking - GMV Performance: In the fourth week of January, the combined GMV of Tmall and JD.com increased by 81.52% year-on-year, likely influenced by the timing of the New Year goods festival. The top five categories showing growth were automotive, home improvement, books and audio-visual products, watches, and outdoor sports [2][19]. - Category Performance: The report highlights that the retail sector is experiencing varied performance, with supermarkets under slight pressure, while e-commerce is stabilizing at the bottom and cross-border e-commerce is showing steady growth [4]. Market Review - The report notes that major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index experienced declines of -1.27% and -2.11% respectively during the week of February 23-27, 2026. The retail sector ranked ninth among nine major consumption sectors in terms of performance [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - Gold Jewelry: The report recommends investing in old gold due to strong consumer acceptance of price increases and the potential for margin optimization. The company is expected to continue optimizing store operations and enhancing high-end customer strategies [5][29]. - Duty-Free: The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to significantly boost local and national duty-free businesses, alongside the ongoing recovery of high-end consumption, making this sector worthy of continued attention [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the transportation sector, but highlights specific companies and segments with positive outlooks, such as logistics and aviation [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The transportation index increased by 3.3% in the last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.2%, with the shipping sector showing the highest growth at 11.9% [1][11]. - In the express delivery segment, some companies are benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition, with a focus on leading firms like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2]. - The logistics sector is expected to improve as chemical product prices rise, with a focus on companies like Milkyway and Hongchuan Wisdom [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight numbers but remains optimistic about ticket prices and profitability due to high passenger load factors [3][55]. - The shipping sector is positively impacted by geopolitical tensions, particularly in oil transportation, with expectations of price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is seeing a stabilization in container shipping rates, while oil transportation rates are expected to rise due to geopolitical factors [4][21]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and down 20.8% year-on-year [21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.2% week-on-week and 91.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in this segment [4][37]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights in China increased by 17.58% year-on-year, with domestic flights showing a similar growth rate [3]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $72.48 per barrel, with domestic aviation kerosene prices decreasing by 4.3% week-on-week [66]. - Airlines are expected to benefit from improved load factors and ticket pricing, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [3][55]. Logistics - The chemical logistics sector is anticipated to improve as chemical prices rise, with a focus on companies like Milkyway and Hongchuan Wisdom [2]. - The overall logistics environment is supported by a stable demand for chemical products, with operational rates for key chemicals showing positive trends [2]. Road and Rail - The road transport sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in truck traffic, although there was a significant drop in traffic volume recently [84]. - The railway sector is also experiencing a positive trend, with passenger turnover increasing by 8.52% year-on-year [82].

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周海外 AI 应用 Gemini 与 Claude 活跃度上升而 ChatGPT 微降，国内因春节假期普遍下降。OpenAI 开启创纪录 1100 亿美元融资，投前估值 7300 亿美元，获亚马逊、软银及英伟达注资并达成基础设施与算力合作。阿里宣布 首款千问 AI 眼镜将于 2026 年 MWC 揭晓并于 3 月 2 日预售，预计整合淘宝支付宝等生态。谷歌发布基于 Gemini3.1Flash Image 架构的 Nano Banana2 生图模型，画质升至 4K，重点修复中文乱码并大幅提升多角色一致 性与复杂场景融合能力。 - 英伟达在 2025 年第四季度（FY2026Q4）实现营收 680 亿美元，同比增长 73%。第四季度数据中心收入为 620 亿 美元，同比增长 75%，环比增长 22%，主要由 Blackwell 持续强劲表现以及 Blackwell Ultra 的放量推动。全年 数据中心业务实现收入 1940 亿美元，同比增长 68%。第四季度 GAAP 毛利率为 75%， ...

投资逻辑 受美伊冲突、美国 2025 年第四季度 GDP 低于预期的影响，本周加密市场转冷。本周 BTC 收盘价为 6.59 万美元， 周环比下滑 3.1%，持仓均价进一步小幅下滑至 54,582 美元/枚；ETH 收盘价为 1,931 美元，周环比下滑 1.9%。加密 货币恐惧贪婪指数本周为 14，市场情绪依然处于极度恐惧区间，交易略有回暖。 全球政策与产业新闻方面：香港将建设数字债券平台并对接区域代币化枢纽，此前已多次发行政府代币化债券。英国 监管机构拟允许加密货币用于博彩支付。法国巴黎银行启动代币化试点，推出法国货币市场基金链上份额。 WisdomTree 获 SEC 批准，实现代币化货币市场基金全天候交易。金融科技和保险巨头 TruStage 试点面向信用合作 社的数字货币。麦通 MSX 拟上线 Pre-IPO 版块，首期将与 Republic 合作推出超千万美元的独角兽申购额度。 公司新闻方面：Coinbase 面向美国所有用户开放股票交易，并与 Yahoo Finance 建立合作，用户可以从在 Yahoo Finance 上研究资产，一键切换到 Coinbase 执行交易。矿企 MARA 将与喜 ...