Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company acquired exclusive perpetual licensing rights for SS&C's Algorithmics (Algo) market risk and FRTB software products in mainland China for $14 million, along with intellectual property rights for a localized version compliant with China's IT innovation standards [1] - The company also secured exclusive distribution and service provider rights for Algo products in mainland China and priority cooperation rights in regions like Hong Kong, Macau, and Southeast Asia, with a $2 million investment in customized support services over 5 years [1] - The acquisition is expected to enrich the company's product portfolio and expand its customer base, leveraging Algo's strong market position in mainland China with 16 major clients, including state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks [2] - The company plans to adopt Algo's software licensing + maintenance service model, which is expected to enhance profitability and accelerate its international expansion strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Financial Forecasts - Algo generated $3.135 million in revenue in China in 2023 [3] - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 at RMB 1.951 billion, RMB 2.101 billion, and RMB 2.358 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 0.80%, 7.68%, and 12.23%, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 132 million, RMB 176 million, and RMB 208 million for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 12.72%, 33.65%, and 18.35%, respectively [3] - EPS is expected to be RMB 0.29, RMB 0.38, and RMB 0.45 for 2024-2026 [3] Business Analysis - Algo's market risk software is a leading risk management system in the financial market, known for its high efficiency, accuracy, and broad model coverage, supporting over 100 financial market trading products [2] - The localized version of Algo is expected to significantly enhance the company's mid-platform capabilities in financial market business systems [2] - The acquisition is anticipated to help the company expand its customer base beyond banks to include securities, insurance, funds, and asset management industries [2] Financial Metrics - The company's revenue in 2023 was RMB 1.936 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 2.01% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was RMB 117 million, a year-on-year increase of 92.17% [7] - ROE (attributable to parent company) for 2023 was 4.50%, with a projected increase to 7.45% by 2026 [7] - P/E ratio for 2023 was 47.40, expected to decrease to 37.67 by 2026 [7]

国金晨讯-20241218 2024 年 12 月 18 日 晨讯 产品组 编辑 白晓琦（执业 S11305240800063） baixiaoqi＠gjzq.com.cn 持续推荐电力设备板块三条具有结构性机会的投资主线； 机器人：龙头公司加速入局，产业 robo+趋势加速 行情回顾 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------|------------------------|-----------|----------|---------|----------|-----------|-----------| | 2024/12/17 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证 50 | 科创 50 | 创业板指 | 中小综指 | 恒生指数 | | 图表 1：12 月 | 17 | 日主要市场指数行情回顾 | | | | | | | | 收盘点数 | | 3,361.49 | 10,537.43 | 1,139.41 | 967.28 | 2,201.18 | 11,329.00 | 19 ...

港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 买入(维持评级) 巨子生物 (02367.HK) 港股公司点评 证券研究报告 事件简评 国家药监局 12 月 17 日官网公示，巨子生物骨修复材料获批三类 医疗器械，符合此前招股书 24Q4 拿证预期。1）适应症：牙颌 骨、牙槽骨缺损填充和修复；2）优势：既能快速塑形不塌陷起 到支撑作用，又具有引导骨再生的高效修复作用；3）成分：无 机成分为羟基磷灰石颗粒，有机成分为大分子多糖。 事件点评 严肃医疗领域：基于胶原蛋白的生物医用材料市场规模由 17 年的 10 亿元增至 21 年的 32 亿元、复合增速 33.5%，预计 27 年进一步增至 199 亿元，22-27 年复合增速 35.1%（沙利文数 据）。供给端看，据药监局，除巨子生物外，奥精医疗科 技、天津市赛宁生物等旗下的胶原蛋白+羟基磷灰石复合的 骨修复材料已获批三类械。 更可期的是羟基磷灰石在医美领域的合规应用。1）优势： 羟基磷灰石在医美领域主要用于骨缺损填充和软组织注射填 充，特有粒径工艺的羟基磷灰石具备刺激胶原再生、收紧提 升的功效，且可被人体安全代谢，对比传统的胶原和玻尿酸 填充剂，效果持续周期更长。2）国内获批 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International with a target price of HKD 13.35, based on a 2025 PE of 48x [1] Core Investment Thesis - Smoore International has experienced a "double whammy" since 2021 due to regulatory headwinds in China and illegal product competition overseas, leading to declining EPS and profitability [1][5] - The company's core advantages remain strong, including leading R&D capabilities, deep customer relationships, and PMTA-approved products in the US [1][6] - Regulatory headwinds in the US and Europe are expected to ease, benefiting Smoore's pod and open-system vape businesses [1][9] - The launch of HNB products by major customers like BAT could create a second growth curve for Smoore [1][13] - Smoore's platform-based advantages in vaporization technology are expected to open new growth opportunities in medical and beauty vaporization [1][14] Market Opportunities US Market - The US illegal vape market accounts for over 70% of the market share, but regulatory crackdowns and potential relaxation of flavor restrictions could drive growth in the legal pod market [1][11] - The mid-term market size for legal pod systems in the US is expected to grow by 63%-299% compared to 2023 levels [1] - FDA has approved menthol-flavored vapes for the first time, signaling a potential easing of flavor restrictions [126] European Market - European countries are gradually implementing bans on disposable vapes, which could benefit Smoore's pod and open-system products [1][12] - The mid-term market size for pod systems in Europe is expected to grow by 42%-60%, while open-system products could grow by 52%-75% compared to 2023 levels [1] HNB Market - The global HNB market reached $34.1 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 23.1% from 2018-2023 [1][13] - Smoore's major customer BAT is launching a breakthrough HNB product, Glo Hilo, in 2025, which could drive significant growth [1][13][159] Financial Performance - Revenue declined by 11.71% in 2022 and 8.04% in 2023, but is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2024 and 21.21% in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 52.52% in 2022 and 34.47% in 2023, but is projected to grow by 43.02% in 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.22, 0.26, and 0.37 for 2024-2026, respectively [1] R&D and Innovation - Smoore has maintained high R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching RMB 1.483 billion in 2023, a 435% increase from 2019 [92] - The company has accumulated 7,695 patents globally, including 3,867 invention patents [92] - Smoore has developed new technologies like FEELM Turbo and POWER ALPHA 2.0, maintaining its leadership in core vaporization technologies [92] New Business Opportunities Medical Vaporization - Smoore has developed the Air Smooth medical mesh nebulizer system, which reduces drug waste by 60% [166] - The global pulmonary drug delivery device market is expected to grow from $60.1 billion in 2023 to $99.5 billion by 2031 [166] Beauty Vaporization - Smoore has launched its own beauty vaporization brand, MOYAL, targeting the mid-to-high-end market [165] Special Vaporization - Smoore's CCELL ceramic core technology has gained significant market share in the US special vaporization market [164]

2024年12月17日 买入(维持评级) 证券研究报告 汽车组 分析师：陈传红（执业 S1130522030001） 分析师： 冉婷（执业 S1130524100001） chenchuanhong@gizq.com.cn 产业跟踪： Robo+是汽车赛道最强产业趋势，比亚迪、华为宣布入局人形机器人。分主机厂看，11-12 月比亚迪、华为、小鹏、特 斯拉等车企开始布局或更新人形机器人。汽车供应链和机器人供应链从软件到硬件、研发到销售都高度重叠，随着头 部公司陆续入局，人形机器人产业化将加速，robo+将成为汽车产业链最强产业趋势。 顶层政策指引下，安徽、重庆等地区政府助力机器人发展。2023 年 11 月工信部印发《人形机器人创新发展指导意见》， 提出到 2027 年，人形机器人技术创新能力显著提升，构建具有国际竞争力的产业生态，综合实力达到世界先进水平。 自上而下的政策支持体系，产生了一系列区域集群效应，各地区积极响应，北京、上海、深圳等地相应的支持性举措 已落地，11-12 月重庆、安徽等地区政府新发布多项利好政策，有效地推动了人形机器人行业的快速发展。 国内和特斯拉共振，国产供应链值得期待。国内主机厂及 ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 投资逻辑 深耕碳化硅（SiC）衬底环节，公司专注 SiC 单晶衬底的研发、生 产和销售，产品广泛应用于通信、新能源汽车、光伏储能等领域。 随着临港工厂提前达产，导电型衬底批量出货，营收持续增长业 绩拐点已至，1-3Q24 营收和归母净利分别同比+55%和+310%。 当前市场对于 SiC 衬底主要关注的问题： 1）短期 SiC 衬底价格大幅下降，市场是否提前进入内卷？ 短期来看，全球 6 英寸 SiC 衬底产能快速释放，新能源汽车需求 阶段性放缓，SiC 衬底价格短期承受较大下行压力。价格竞争主 要系国内产能迅速扩张、不同厂商之间良率显著差异导致合同履 约不稳定所致。未来 6 转 8 英寸或成为降本关键，随着国内外厂 商加速布局，公司率先实现大尺寸衬底技术突破，以液相法长晶 和业内首发的 12 英寸衬底巩固行业领先地位，我们认为公司有望 在规模效应的逐步显现实现成本优化，从而保持竞争优势。 2）如何看待 SiC 衬底业务的中长期成长空间？ 中长期来看，SiC 衬底与传统硅衬底的价差逐步缩小，有利于 SiC 对下游应用加速渗透。根据 SMM 2023 年的预测，2028 年汽车在 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [1] Core Views - The company's new generation Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) system has been approved domestically, marking a significant upgrade in its product line [2] - The new CGM products, including models H6/h6 and i6/i6s/i6Pro, offer extended usage periods of up to 8 days and 15 days respectively, catering to both medical institutions and home environments [2] - The company's proprietary third-generation direct electron transfer technology enhances the CGM system's performance, offering low potential, oxygen independence, reduced interference, and high stability and accuracy [2] - The company has signed a distribution agreement with A MENARINI DIAGNOSTICS S r l for the European market, which is expected to drive sales growth in overseas markets [2] Financial Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 368 million, RMB 507 million, and RMB 637 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 38%, and 26% [2] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 41x, 30x, and 24x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] Product Development - The new CGM products feature improved design and manufacturing processes, including a one-piece implantation design that simplifies user experience and optimized product dimensions for better wearability [2] - The company's CGM product line expansion is expected to meet diversified market demands and establish a closed-loop system of "perception + evaluation + intervention" [2] Market Expansion - The company's partnership with A MENARINI DIAGNOSTICS S r l covers over 20 European countries and regions, with the potential for rapid sales growth following the overseas launch of the second-generation CGM products [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 4,059 million in 2023 to RMB 5,914 million in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.25% [5] - The company's net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.0% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [5]

Industry Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry presents both cyclical and growth investment opportunities, with cyclicality being the dominant factor [1][4] - The industry exhibits strong alpha opportunities due to high barriers to entry, including formula expertise, customer relationships, and resource control [1][5] - The cyclical recovery has begun, with downstream demand expected to sustain growth, supporting the industry's upward trend [1][7] - Capital expenditures and technological advancements are driving CCL upgrades, particularly in high-speed CCL and other innovative segments [1][8] Cyclical and Growth Opportunities - The CCL industry is characterized by cyclicality, with historical price increases of 9% in 2017 and 32% in 2021 during peak cycles [1][4] - Growth opportunities are driven by innovation, particularly in niche segments such as 5G and AI, with companies like Shengyi Technology and Taoglas benefiting from these trends [1][4] - The industry's cyclicality is neutral to strong, with demand following macroeconomic trends and supply expansion taking approximately 2 years [1][169] - Growth is weaker overall but significant in specific areas, with innovation often driven by customer requirements rather than the CCL manufacturers themselves [1][204] Industry Barriers and Competitive Landscape - The CCL industry has high barriers to entry, including formula expertise, customer relationships, and control over key raw materials like copper foil, resin, and glass fiber [1][5][215] - The top 5 companies (CR5) account for over 50% of the market, and the frequency of leadership changes is low, indicating strong alpha opportunities for dominant players [1][207][210] - Companies with strong customer relationships and resource control, such as Shengyi Technology and Taoglas, are well-positioned to capitalize on cyclical and growth opportunities [1][215][217] Cyclical Recovery and Downstream Demand - The CCL industry has shown signs of recovery, with A-share CCL companies reporting revenue growth of 3%, 25%, and 5% in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively [1][7] - Downstream demand for smartphones, PCs, and servers is expected to grow, with IDC forecasting a 3% CAGR for smartphones and an 8% CAGR for servers from 2024 to 2028 [1][7][254] - The recovery is supported by increased capital expenditures from cloud computing providers, which are expected to drive demand for high-end CCL products [1][7][254] Technological Upgrades and Innovation - The CCL industry is undergoing significant upgrades, particularly in high-speed CCL, driven by advancements in 18+ layer boards, substrate packaging, and HDI boards [1][8][272] - High-speed CCL, which grew by 6% in 2023 despite an overall industry decline of 16%, is expected to be a key growth area in the coming years [1][8][272] - Innovations in AI servers, AI PCs, and AI smartphones are creating new demand for advanced CCL materials, such as ultra-low loss and super ultra-low loss CCL [1][8][272] Investment Recommendations - The current period is seen as a critical investment moment for the CCL industry, with both cyclical and growth drivers in play [1][9] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong alpha characteristics, particularly those with expertise in high-speed CCL and other innovative segments [1][9][229]

策略资讯周刊 策略组 分析师：张弛（执业 S1130523070003） 联系人： 李超 zhangchi1@gizq.com.cn 前期报告提要与市场聚焦 前期观点回顾：2025 年大概率具备"春季躁动"行情，且程度或超预期。M1 扩容后，同比读数有所提升，居民 与企业活期存款间转化影响被"熨平"，将一定程度平抑其增速的波动性。分子端看，观察新口径下 M1 同比与 PPI 之 间的关系，两者依然存在约 9 个月领先关系，故我们维持年度策略中的观点，2024 年 10 月新口径下 M1 同比的拐头回 升或意味着企业"盈利底"对应至 2025Q3。分母端看，以"M1-短融"所衡量的剩余流动性也出现拐头回升，意味着 新规则亦适用于衡量市场流动性边际改善，叠加国内经济数据趋于改善，风险溢价向下空间较大，"春季躁动"可期。 市场聚焦：市场聚焦：1、近日市场调整原因几何？有没有持续性？2、如何解读政治局会议及经济工作会议，仍 有哪些期待？3、市场交易过热吗？过热交易会打破"春季躁动"的趋势性行情吗？4、躁动行情终结，背后有哪些因 素？5、当下如何坚定投资信心和做出有效的策略应对？ 全面论述"春季躁动"开启、持续性及终结 ...

国金证券研究所 分析师：孟灿（执业 S1130522050001） 分析师：樊志远（执业 S1130518070003）分析师：张真桢（执业 S1130524060002) mengcan@gizq.com.cn 分析师：马晓婷（执业 S1130524070006） maxiaoting@gjzq.com.cn 投资逻辑 计算机行业观点：从中美资本市场 AI 产业链的表现看，此前持续表现强劲的是上游，近期表现强势的是 AI 应用。从 背后的产业逻辑看，也相对简单，先涨上游，是因为上游业绩兑现早且确定，一开始大家期待与焦虑并存，FOM 心 态下巨头引领开展军备竞赛，Capex 持续高增，AI 芯片、光模块、AI 服务器等环节业绩持续高增长。随着上游高投 入，大家开始讨论和关注 AI 投入产出效率和时间差，AI 应用必须让大家看到趋势和曙光，才能坚定对上游投入的价 值。而一开始投资者对应用端是担忧的，重点是担忧 AI 原生应用会颠覆软件和 SaaS 生态，经过过去多个季度的观 察，资本市场认为在大模型效果逐步达到一定瓶颈后，重点细分领域的数据价值变得尤为关键，而这些高价值数据掌 握在既有的软件和 SaaS 头部厂 ...