证券板块 券商板块高盈利能力与当前较低的估值产生错配（截至 5/9 PB 估值为 1.2 倍，位于近十年 21%分位），基本面与估值 的背离将随政策、并购主题催化剂的持续释放迎来修复窗口，高市场活跃度下金融科技板块也有望成为贝塔放大器。 国新办发布会介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况；同日，证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展 行动方案》，有望影响机构投资行为，引导长期投资、鼓励权益基金发展，长期有助于资本市场健康发展。 投资建议：政策加码+市场活跃度较高，券商业绩有望延续双位数增长。此外，行业并购主题持续、当前估值与业绩 错配程度较大，继续关注券商板块机会。建议关注三条主线：（1）券商并购预期增强，建议关注券商并购潜在标的机 会。（2）消费贷款需求受益于政策有望回暖，建议关注消费贷产业。（3）四川双马：科技赛道占优+退出渠道改善，业 绩弹性可期。公司管理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟（半导体材料，2024/12/24 状态更新为已问询）、邦德激光（高端 装备，2024/1/3 进行上市辅导备案）、屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群核科技（"杭州六小龙"之一， 2025/2/14 向港 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained rating) [10] Core Views - The tourism and hotel sectors are experiencing high demand, with positive data from the May Day holiday indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel and hotel performance [15][17] - The IPOs of tea brands like Hu Shang A Yi and Ba Wang Cha Ji are noteworthy, with significant improvements in same-store sales due to a low base in April [15] - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic tourism demand and the potential for growth in the restaurant and hotel sectors, driven by favorable policies and improving fundamentals [15][8] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The May Day holiday saw 314 million domestic trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [17][19] - Key tourist destinations like Jiu Hua, Huang Shan, and E Mei experienced significant visitor growth during the holiday [15][32] Key Company Updates - Hu Shang A Yi completed its IPO with a valuation of approximately 16.6 billion HKD, reporting a revenue of 3.29 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.9% [3][29] - Jiu Hua Mountain received 234,200 visitors during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [32] - Huang Shan's various scenic spots welcomed 2.3658 million visitors, up 28.58% [32] - E Mei Mountain saw 907,400 visitors, achieving a total revenue of 830 million yuan, a 15.82% increase [32] Market Performance - The hotel industry's RevPAR increased by 12.0% year-on-year during the May Day week, with improvements in both occupancy and average daily rate [24] - The report notes that the social service sector's performance ranked 27th among 31 sectors in terms of growth over the past two weeks [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant sector, particularly growth-oriented companies and those in turnaround situations, such as Gu Ming and Da Shi Shares [15][8] - In the hotel sector, the sustained tourism demand and favorable market conditions suggest potential for companies like Shou Li Hotel and Atour [15][8]

光伏&储能：山东省发布新能源上网电价市场化方案及机制电价竞价细则（136 号文首份省级承接政策），发布时间早、 内容全面、细节友好；同时 5 月组件排产环比基本持平好于预期，有望共同促进市场对"抢装后"需求预期的修复。 欧洲逆变器市场或生变，关注潜在受益公司。 子行业周度核心观点： 风电：浙江深远海风机招标预审启动，年内开工可能性持续提升，国内海风景气度加速向上；英国海风招标改革初步 落地，相关措施或有望加速英国项目需求释放，建议关注英国 AR7 海风招标进展及国内相关受益标的。 电网：1）陇东-山东特高压直流投产，Q2 哈密-重庆、金上-湖北、宁夏-湖南三条特高压直流也有望密集投产，看好 25 年特高压相关公司业绩弹性持续兑现；2）25 年南网配网设备第一批框架招标金额达 54 亿元，同比维持高位，南 网近年重点投入五省区主网架优化和城乡配电网升级，高投资强度预计将持续带动配网设备、计量产品需求增长。 新能源车：本周理想召开第二次 AI TALK 并官宣 L 系列智能焕新版正式上市，我们对公司维持原有观点，智驾最终还 是要回落给产品。智驾在目前的市场中只是整车产品性价比的一部分，最终还是要评判产品的综合素质 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, recommending a focus on leading domestic companies with high dividend support and growth certainty for 2025 [5][13]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of stabilization in domestic real estate, with potential for long-term investment opportunities as consumer subsidy policies improve [5][13]. - The new tobacco sector is experiencing growth, particularly in heated tobacco products, with significant sales increases reported [16]. - The paper packaging industry faces short-term pressure due to seasonal demand decline and price drops in raw materials, but long-term consumption growth is expected [17]. - The light consumer goods sector is seeing innovation and brand strength, particularly in pet food and trendy products, indicating potential for growth [18]. - The two-wheeler market is benefiting from trade-in policies, with significant sales increases noted, particularly in electric bicycles [19]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales in Q1 2025 showed improvement compared to previous quarters, with leading companies expected to perform well as real estate stabilizes [5][13]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for growth [13][14]. New Tobacco Sector - The report notes a tightening regulatory environment in the U.S. for vaping products, but also highlights growth in heated tobacco product sales, with a 19% increase reported [16]. - Companies like Smoore International are recommended for their competitive positioning in the expanding compliant market [16]. Paper Packaging Sector - The sector is currently under pressure due to seasonal demand and declining prices for various paper products, with a forecasted consumption increase of 3.56% in 2024 [17]. - Key players like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology are noted for their resilience and potential for market share growth [17]. Light Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of brand innovation and market expansion, particularly in the pet food segment, with companies like Guobao Pet and Bubble Mart highlighted for their growth potential [18][20]. - The AI glasses market is also mentioned as a focus area for investment, with recommendations for companies involved in the lens manufacturing sector [18]. Two-Wheeler Market - The trade-in program for electric bicycles has led to significant sales growth, with 4.2 million units reported as of April 24 [19]. - Companies like Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology are recommended for their strong market positions and innovative product offerings [19][21].

本周行情综述 铜：本周（2025/05/05-2025/05/09）LME 铜价+0.89%到 9439.00 美元/吨，沪铜+0.30%到 7.75 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM, 本周进口铜精矿加工费周度指数跌至-43.11 美元/吨。冶炼端，据 SMM，Aurubis 将于 2025 年启动其价值 8 亿 美元的美国废铜冶炼厂，目标是每年处理 18 万吨废铜并生产 7 万吨精炼铜。消费端，据 SMM, 本周国内主要精铜杆企 业开工率下滑至 62.79%，环比下降 17.10 个百分点；SMM 铜线缆企业开工率为 83.49%，环比下降 5.96 个百分点，主 要因铜价走高导致新增订单量明显减少；黄铜棒企业开工率降至 57.18%，环比下滑 3.94 个百分点，主要受假期延长、 订单减少及高铜价影响，但预计下周开工率将回升至 58.94%。漆包线行业机台开机率达 84.5%，环比下降 2.1%，订单 量下滑 6.8%，主要受关税对消费需求抑制影响。 铝：本周 LME 铝价-0.66%到 2418.00 美元/吨，沪铝-1.63%到 1.96 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四，国内主流消费 地电解铝锭库 ...

【一周一议】 （1）非洲是出海的热门区域，市场认知仍存在较大预期差。出海不等同于出口，出海更关注海外的本地消纳，对本 地的运营能力、管理能力、融入本地文化等软实力+硬实力，均提出了更高的要求，而出口经历的环节复杂性不及出 海。非洲因相距较远，国家构成更加多元，相对东南亚，非洲的关注度一直偏低。但非洲尤其是东非，多个国家当前 的发展吸引力正在提升，例如坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚、卢旺达、赞比亚等国家，经济稳中有增、政局相对稳定，我们参考 2024 年 GDP（不变价）增速表现，坦桑 5.44%，肯尼亚 4.51%，卢旺达 8.89%，赞比亚 4.04%，国际主要机构对东非的 经济发展给出稳健增长的判断，例如 IMF 预计 2025 年坦桑尼亚实际 GDP 增速 6.02%，肯尼亚 4.81%，卢旺达 7.11%， 赞比亚 6.2%。此外，2024 年非洲接近 1/3 国家（对应约 18 个）进行大选，2025 年仍有至少 7 个国家进行选举，多数 国家在选举后会进入一个发展新阶段。当前出海非洲的上市企业中，以基建、建材、矿产、消费更为常见，例如①科 达制造在东非+西非合计 6 个国家布局 10 个工厂，涉及瓷砖、玻璃、洁 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the textile manufacturing sector due to the easing of US tariff expectations, which is expected to benefit textile manufacturers [1][10][11]. Core Insights - The easing of US tariffs is favorable for textile manufacturing companies, as recent statements from US officials indicate a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which could lead to increased orders from overseas clients and improved domestic factory utilization rates [1][10][11]. - The partnership between Taobo and the professional outdoor brand Norrøna is expected to enhance Taobo's position in the outdoor segment, leveraging Norrøna's brand strength and Taobo's operational capabilities to drive growth in the Chinese market [2][13][15]. - The apparel retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, which is below the overall consumer market performance, primarily affected by unusual weather in March [3][16]. Industry Data Tracking - In April, the export value of clothing and accessories decreased by 1.17% year-on-year, with a significant decline in order visibility for manufacturers following the introduction of new US tariff policies [1][11]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices, indicating a mixed outlook for input costs in the textile industry [3][19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, companies like Hailan Home are recommended due to their adaptability to consumer trends and strong profitability potential. Taobo is expected to benefit from the recovery of major brands like Adidas and Nike [4][22]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, leading textile manufacturers are advised as they possess strong risk resilience and are likely to gain market share amid ongoing tariff adjustments [4][22]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 3.47%, ranking sixth among 28 major industry sectors, with notable stock performances from companies like Huafang Co. and Yingfeng Co. [5][23][29]. - Recent announcements include Taizhou New Material's guarantee for its subsidiaries, indicating ongoing financial activities within the sector [6][32].

核心观点： 智能驾驶： 理想智驾系统全面进化，激光雷达精准性和远距力双提升。在"智能焕新"后，L 系列的 AD Pro 车型智驾芯片从地 平线 J5 升级到了地平线 J6M，并加上了禾赛的 ATL 激光雷达。和理想上一代搭载的 AT128 相比，除了体积减小、重量 变轻这些"常规升级"之外，最关键的是，理想为 ATL 定制了智能变焦的功能， 也就是能看得更远，在 30° 收缩视 野下，能检测到最远 200 米。 吉利拟收购极氪全部股份，推进业务整合加速集团协同。吉利汽车控股有限公司（下称"吉利汽车"，股票代码： 0175.HK）宣布，计划收购极氪智能科技有限公司（下称"极氪"，股票代码：NYSE: ZK) 已发行全部股份。吉利汽 车目前持有极氪约 65.7%的股份，如交易完成，极氪将与吉利汽车实现完全合并。 机器人： 联想：发布"联想乐享壹号"机器人和"超级智能体"解决方案。联想集团董事长兼 CEO 杨元庆在 2025 联想创新科 技大会上宣布首位硅基员工"联想乐享壹号"机器人加入公司团队。作为全球首款搭载联想乐享超级智能体的机器人， 它不仅具备多模态感知与交互能力，还能依托企业知识库进行智能决策。 宁波华翔 ...

商贸零售行业研究 2025 年 05 月 11 日 买入（首次评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：王译 wangyi9@gjzq.com.cn 永辉新开门店表现亮眼，关注电商 618 大促后续表现 核心观点 线下零售：永辉门店调改进程继续，新开门店业绩亮眼。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日，目前永辉超市调改店数量达到 71 家。最新开业的 7 家门店分别位于深圳市、重庆市、西安市、泸州市和新密市。7 家新门店的调改情况总体拥 有一些共同特点：①商品下架比例很高，淘汰率从 60%到 70%不等。②烘焙和熟食比例基本达到 20%以上水平。 ③员工薪资整体提升幅度不低于 20%。4 月 14 日，永辉超市正式发布 2025 年全国第三批学习胖东来自主调改门 店名单，涉及门店数量达 41 家，创单批次调改规模新高，业务版图拓展至 48 座城市，其中厦门、济南、焦作等 12 座城市为首开城市，截至 ...

4 月出口（美元计价）同比+8.1%，表现出较强韧性。据海关总署数据显示，中国 4 月出口（以美元计价）同比增长 8.1%，延续良好增长态势，1-3 月出口同比分别+6.0%、-3.0%、+12.4%。25 年前四个月，东盟、欧洲、美国分别为我 国前三大贸易伙伴，我国对其出口金额分别为 1.48 万亿、1.21 万亿、1.07 万亿，同比分别+12.6%、6.1%、-1.5%。4 月出口表现出较强韧性，预计主要受益于非美地区需求强劲。 暖通产业链 25Q1 销售数据高增。1）整机产品出口表现显著优于内销，主因海外经销商在关税政策不确定性下的提前 备货行为；2）上游零部件受益于下游产量高增长，内需供应端普遍实现较高增速，其中国内补贴政策与"抢出口"效 应形成双向拉动。家用空调：根据产业在线，25Q1 实现总销量 5887.3 万台，同比+15.3%，其中内销 2735.2 万台，同 比 +6.2%，出口 3152.1 万台，同比 +24.5%，出口表现优于内销。受季节性备货节奏影响，出口端占据主导，预计随 着出口淡季和内销旺季备货到来，市场结构将迎来切换。二季度排产数据显示内销端呈现显著提升，反映厂商对旺季 市 ...