Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 103.2 CNY based on a 65x PE for 2026 [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a comprehensive solution provider in environmental regulation, with a strong focus on data services driving performance growth. The data services segment is expected to be a major growth driver from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 27 billion, 46 billion, and 64 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 77%, 67%, and 39% respectively [3][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has 25 years of experience in environmental regulation equipment, focusing on four main scenarios: data services, industrial processes, specialized applications, and public/commercial use. The data services segment saw a 16.2% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, with new orders up 200% from January to August, providing strong support for sustained performance [2]. Data Center Business Growth - The data center business is identified as the company's largest growth point, driven by rapid increases in global data center investments and a shift from air cooling to liquid cooling solutions. The company has established a comprehensive solution covering all aspects of temperature control for data centers, enhancing cooling performance and energy efficiency [3][4][5]. Industrial Demand - The industrial temperature control market is projected to reach 23.6 billion USD by 2025, with the public and power sectors accounting for 43% of this market. The company has extensive experience in thermal management systems across various power projects, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand in specialized industrial fields [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 43.9 billion, 63.8 billion, and 83.4 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion, 4.2 billion, and 6.7 billion CNY, reflecting significant growth rates [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week (9/15 - 9/19), bond - type ETFs had a total net capital outflow of 5.1 billion yuan, with interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs having net outflows of 1.9 billion yuan, 0.7 billion yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan respectively. Convertible - bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs had significant drawdowns, while the net value of interest - rate bond ETFs changed little [2][11]. - The second batch of sci - tech bond ETFs will be listed on September 24. With the establishment of these 14 new funds, the total scale of sci - tech bond ETFs has exceeded 170 billion yuan, and the overall scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time [3][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Issuance Progress Tracking - The second batch of 14 sci - tech bond ETFs from 14 public funds such as ICBC Credit Suisse Fund and Morgan Fund started issuing on September 12. They were submitted on August 20, approved on September 8, and scheduled for issuance on September 12. The total issuance scale of these 14 sci - tech bond ETFs reached 40.786 billion yuan, and 13 of them had an issuance scale of over 2.9 billion yuan [3][14]. 2. Existing Product Tracking - As of September 19, 2025, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were 140 billion yuan, 355.8 billion yuan, and 70.1 billion yuan respectively, with credit - bond ETFs accounting for 63% of the scale. Compared with last week, their circulating market values decreased by 2.2 billion yuan, 0.02 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan respectively [4][16]. - Among credit - bond ETFs, the circulating market values of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs were 123.7 billion yuan and 125.9 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease of 0.6 billion yuan and an increase of 2.3 billion yuan compared to last week [19]. 3. ETF Performance Tracking - Recently, the market has shown range - bound fluctuations. In the past two weeks, the cumulative unit net values of interest - rate bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs closed at 1.18 and 1.02 respectively [23]. - As of September 19, with February 7 as the base date, the average cumulative yield of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs dropped to 0.30%; with July 17 as the base date, the cumulative yield of sci - tech bond ETFs dropped to - 0.46% and remained in the negative range [24]. 4. Premium/Discount Rate Tracking - Last week, the average premium/discount rates of credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 0.17%, - 0.03%, and - 0.15% respectively, indicating that the average trading price was lower than the fund's unit net value and the allocation sentiment was low. Specifically, the weekly average premium/discount rates of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs were - 0.23% and - 0.06% respectively [6][30]. 5. Turnover Rate Tracking - Last week, the turnover rate was in the order of interest - rate bond ETFs > convertible - bond ETFs > credit - bond ETFs. The weekly turnover rate of interest - rate bond ETFs rose to 179%, that of credit - bond ETFs remained around 89%, and that of convertible - bond ETFs dropped to 100%. Specifically, products like Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark - Making Treasury Bond ETF and Haitong Shanghai Stock Exchange 5 - Year Local Government Bond ETF had relatively high turnover rates [6][36].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [1][14] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [1][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading activities remaining above the 80th percentile [2][25] - Major indices' volatility has also risen, with the communication sector's volatility exceeding the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with all sectors' liquidity indicators below the 40th historical percentile [2][36] Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors have seen high research activity, while sectors like steel, electricity, utilities, machinery, light industry, building materials, and real estate have shown a rising trend in research activity [3][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions increasing [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for sectors such as non-bank financials, chemicals, coal, and retail have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][21] - The net profit forecast for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 has been adjusted upward [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there continues to be a net sell-off overall [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing has reached a high point not seen since September 2024, with a net purchase of 466.70 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in the electronic, non-bank financial, and machinery sectors, while net sales were seen in military, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors [6][39] Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in coal, communication, and home appliance sectors, while reducing positions in computers, non-bank financials, and electronics [7][45] - ETFs have continued to see net subscriptions, primarily in personal ETFs, with significant net purchases in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [7][52]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic growth and monetary liquidity signals to determine equity allocation levels[41][42] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns signal strengths to economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions - Economic growth signal: 100% - Monetary liquidity signal: 50% 2. Equity allocation recommendation is derived based on these signals, with September's recommended equity position at 75% 3. Historical performance: From early 2025 to date, the strategy achieved a return of 11.75%, compared to Wind All A's return of 22.98%[41][42] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced view of macroeconomic and liquidity conditions, offering actionable insights for equity allocation[41][42] - **Model Name**: Rotation Model for Small-Cap Stocks **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies style rotation opportunities between small-cap stocks and large-cap stocks (represented by the "茅指数")[19][20][22] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Relative net value comparison: Small-cap stocks/茅指数 relative net value is compared to its 243-day moving average - If above the moving average, small-cap stocks are preferred; otherwise, 茅指数 is recommended 2. 20-day closing price slope analysis: - Positive slope indicates preference for the respective index - Current slopes: Small-cap stocks (-0.08%) vs 茅指数 (0.24%) 3. Risk control indicators: - Volatility crowding degree (-35.58%) - 10-year government bond yield (-8.12%) - Both indicators are below risk thresholds (55% and 30%, respectively)[19][20][22] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures style rotation signals and provides risk control measures for small-cap stock investments[19][20][22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Stock Selection Factors **Factor Construction Idea**: Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000)[45][53][55] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Factors include: - **Value**: Metrics like SP_TTM (past 12-month revenue/latest market value) - **Growth**: Metrics like OperatingIncome_SQ_Chg1Y (quarterly operating income YoY growth) - **Quality**: Metrics like ROE_FTTM (future 12-month expected net profit/shareholder equity average) - **Technical**: Metrics like Skewness_240D (240-day return skewness) - **Volatility**: Metrics like IV_CAPM (CAPM residual volatility)[53][55] 2. Weekly tracking of IC mean values and multi-long-short portfolio returns - Quality factors performed well last week, while others showed mixed results across stock pools[45][53][55] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides comprehensive insights into factor performance across different market segments, aiding in stock selection[45][53][55] - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Selection Factors **Factor Construction Idea**: Convertible bond factors are derived from the relationship between convertible bonds and their underlying stocks[50][53] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Key factors include: - **Stock Consensus Expectation**: Predictive metrics for underlying stocks - **Stock Financial Quality**: Metrics like ROE_FTTM - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: Metrics like parity and bottom price premium rate[50][53] 2. Weekly tracking of IC mean values and multi-long-short portfolio returns - Positive IC mean values observed for stock consensus expectation, financial quality, stock value, and convertible bond valuation factors[50][53] **Factor Evaluation**: Offers robust predictive insights for convertible bond selection based on stock-related metrics[50][53] --- Backtesting Results Models - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Return: 11.75% (2025 YTD) - Benchmark (Wind All A): 22.98%[41][42] - **Rotation Model for Small-Cap Stocks**: - Small-cap stocks/茅指数 relative net value: 1.88 (above 243-day moving average of 1.62) - 20-day closing price slopes: Small-cap stocks (-0.08%), 茅指数 (0.24%)[19][20][22] Factors - **Stock Selection Factors**: - IC mean values: Quality factors performed best last week[45][53][55] - **Convertible Bond Selection Factors**: - IC mean values: Positive for stock consensus expectation, financial quality, stock value, and convertible bond valuation factors[50][53]

Group 1: Reform Overview - The State Council has approved a pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in 10 regions, focusing on six key elements: technology, land, human resources, data, capital, and environmental resources[2] - The reform plans are tailored to local conditions, addressing critical issues in factor marketization, including land index marketization and rural homestead reform[4] Group 2: Land and Resource Allocation - The reform emphasizes market-oriented allocation of land indicators, allowing regions with surplus indicators to transfer them to areas with higher development potential, enhancing land resource efficiency[5] - Zhengzhou's plan focuses on transforming underutilized industrial land into new industrial land, supporting industrial upgrades[5] Group 3: Public Services and Population Management - The pilot regions, except Beijing, propose a system where basic public services are provided based on the place of residence, aiming for equalization of services[6] - Chengdu's plan explores matching new construction land with population trends, while other regions emphasize linking fiscal transfers and public service investments to urbanization of rural populations[6] Group 4: Rural Land Reform - The reform aims to facilitate urbanization of rural populations by exploring voluntary and compensated exit mechanisms for rural homestead rights, enhancing financial support for migrants[7] - The focus is on increasing the property value of homestead rights as urbanization progresses, thereby boosting rural residents' income potential[7] Group 5: Income Distribution and Labor Compensation - The reform plans aim to increase labor compensation in the initial distribution of income and enhance residents' income through land and capital rights[8] - Hefei's plan includes raising minimum wage standards and improving wage negotiation systems to benefit frontline workers[8] Group 6: Technology and Innovation - The plans propose granting researchers ownership or long-term usage rights of their scientific achievements, with Hefei suggesting at least 70% ownership rights for researchers[9] - There is a focus on promoting technology capitalization, including knowledge property financing and encouraging quality tech companies to go public[9] Group 7: Financial Sector Reforms - The Fuzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou region's plan supports Taiwanese financial institutions' participation in mainland financial markets, enhancing cross-border financial cooperation[13] - The Chongqing plan encourages exploration of financial product and capital connectivity between China and Singapore[13] Group 8: Data Management and Utilization - The reform emphasizes the opening of high-value public data sets in various sectors, including health and transportation, to promote transparency and innovation[15] - The Suzhou-Nanjing region's plan explores market-oriented pricing and management of data assets, facilitating data trading[15] Group 9: Risk Considerations - There are risks related to misinterpretation of policies and potential delays in land reform progress, which may affect the overall effectiveness of the pilot programs[16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2025/09/15 - 2025/09/19), the weighted index of REITs decreased by 0.14% to 100.42 points. The performance of major asset classes from high to low was: crude oil > pure bonds > gold > REITs > stocks > convertible bonds. [2] - In terms of the nature of underlying asset projects, property - type REITs rose 0.13% to 113.97, while concession - type REITs fell 0.46% to 84.48. From the perspective of industry types, the weekly performance from high to low was: data centers > warehousing and logistics > industrial parks > consumer - type > energy - type > rental housing for affordable housing > highways > ecological and environmental protection. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Price - Volume Performance - **Overall Market Performance**: The weighted index of REITs decreased by 0.14% this week. The performance of major asset classes varied, with crude oil having the highest return at 2.09% and convertible bonds having the lowest return at - 1.55%. [2] - **Performance by Project Nature**: Property - type REITs rose 0.13%, and concession - type REITs fell 0.46%. [2] - **Performance by Industry Type**: Data centers had the highest return of 1.32%, while ecological and environmental protection had the lowest return of - 2.00%. [2] - **Top - Performing REITs**: In property - type REITs, the top five in terms of increase were Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT (2.20%), CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT (1.54%), Huaxia Joy City Commercial REIT (1.43%), Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (1.41%), and AVIC Yishang Warehousing and Logistics REIT (1.37%). In concession - type REITs, the top five were China Merchants Expressway REIT (1.89%), E Fund Shenzhen Expressway REIT (1.57%), Ping An Ningbo Jiaotou REIT (1.40%), AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT (1.15%), and Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water and Water Conservancy REIT (0.87%). [3] - **Turnover Rate**: Among property - type REITs, CICC Vipshop Outlets REIT, Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT, Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT, CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT, and China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT had relatively high turnover rates. Among concession - type REITs, Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT, Guojin China Railway Construction REIT, Fuguo First - Created Water Service REIT, Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT, and Huaxia Tebian Electric New Energy REIT had relatively high turnover rates. [3] 3.2 Secondary Market Valuation Situation - **Property - type REITs**: The top three in terms of internal rate of return (IRR) were CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT (7.70%), Boshi Shekou Industrial Park REIT (6.69%), and Huaxia HeDa High - tech REIT (6.61%). The three REITs with relatively low P/NAV valuation quantiles and showing undervaluation were E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT, CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT, and Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT. [4][23] - **Concession - type REITs**: The top three in terms of IRR were Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (9.65%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (8.96%), and ICBC Hebei Expressway REIT (6.18%). The three REITs with relatively low P/NAV valuation quantiles and showing undervaluation were Huaxia Yuexiu REIT, Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT, and ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT. [4] 3.3 Market Correlation Statistics - **Correlation between REITs and Major Asset Classes**: This week, REITs had the highest correlation coefficient with the Shanghai Composite Index at 0.20, followed by CSI 300 at 0.18, ChiNext Index at 0.11, small - and - medium - cap stocks at 0.16, CSI Convertible Bond Index at 0.17, CSI All - Bond Index at 0.07, gold at 0.04, and crude oil index at 0.09. [27] - **Correlation of Different Types of REITs with Major Asset Classes**: Different types of REITs had different correlations with major asset classes. For example, industrial park - type REITs had a relatively high correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index at 0.21, while rental housing for affordable housing - type REITs had a correlation coefficient of 0.00 with the Shanghai Composite Index. [28] 3.4 Primary Market Tracking As of September 19, 2025, there were 11 REITs products still in the exchange acceptance stage and 1 REIT in the state of having passed the review and waiting for listing. [5][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not on the rate cut magnitude but on the independence of the Federal Reserve amid new member Milan's rapid joining and legal issues faced by member Cook[3] - Only Milan supported a 50bp rate cut, while Waller and Bowman, who previously voted against, aligned with the majority this time[3] - The labor market dynamics are worse than in June, contradicting Waller's earlier stance that tariffs should be excluded when considering inflation, which would suggest a larger rate cut[3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The median forecast for a rate cut in 2025 was raised from 50bp to 75bp, with only 9 out of 19 members supporting this, indicating a precarious consensus[7] - The FOMC's economic outlook was optimistic, raising 2025 GDP growth to 1.6% and 2026 GDP to 1.8%, while lowering the 2026 unemployment rate to 4.4%[10] - Powell's performance during the meeting was deemed satisfactory in maintaining the Fed's independence, despite political pressures from Trump[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Implications - Risks include increased political uncertainty from Trump, leading to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[6] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected synchronized easing, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[6] - The Fed's independence has resulted in gold being the biggest loser in the market, with a 10% increase in gold prices since the Jackson Hole meeting reflecting prior market expectations of reduced Fed independence[10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of ultra - long credit bonds from multiple aspects, including the adjustment of yields in the stock market, the increase in new bond supply in the primary market, and the decline in index prices and weak trading sentiment in the secondary market. It also points out that institutions should pay attention to market sentiment changes around the listing of the second batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs when participating in the ultra - long credit bond market [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond yields continued to adjust. Due to the impact of new public fund regulations on the bond market this week, assets with insufficient safety margins, such as medium - and long - duration secondary bonds and general credit bonds over 7 years, faced significant adjustment pressure. The number of stock ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 353 compared with last week [2][12]. 2. Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds increased significantly. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 40.19 billion, reaching the highest point this year, mainly affected by the large - scale issuance of ultra - long individual bonds by Everbright Group. Due to the overall pressure on the bond market, the market's sentiment towards primary - market allocation was cautious, and the coupon rates of new ultra - long credit bonds generally continued to rise. However, investors had a certain degree of recognition for the high - quality ultra - long new bonds of Everbright Group, as shown by the rebound in the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long industrial bonds in the latest week [3][21]. 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The price of the ultra - long credit bond index continued to fall. This week, the price index trends of various bonds continued to diverge. Medium - and short - duration credit bonds were more resilient, while long - duration varieties faced price pressure. The index of AA + credit bonds over 10 years decreased by 1.02% month - on - month [29]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds remained sluggish. This week, due to redemption pressure, the selling pressure of trading desks on ultra - long credit bonds intensified. Although the number of transactions of credit bonds over 7 years increased slightly, the average transaction yield increased significantly compared with last week. In terms of spreads, the spread between industrial bonds over 10 years and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 35bp [32]. - Correspondingly, the proportion of TKN of ultra - long credit bonds over 10 years was less than 50% this week, and the average discount of 20 - 30 - year urban investment individual bonds reached over 5BP, highlighting the heavy selling pressure from sellers [37]. - In terms of investor structure, due to concerns about the stability of the liability side, funds have been reducing their holdings of ultra - long credit bonds for five consecutive weeks. The net selling scale of ultra - long credit bond varieties in the latest week exceeded 3 billion, intensifying the market selling pressure. Institutions such as insurance and wealth management participated slightly during the adjustment, reflecting the allocation demand for high - coupon long - term bonds [43]. - From a more microscopic perspective, the spreads between active ultra - long credit bonds of each maturity and treasury bonds of similar maturities continued to widen this week. The spreads of varieties around 10 years have risen to over the 60th percentile since 2024. In the future, there are still liquidity flaws in ultra - long credit bonds. If institutions intend to participate, they need to avoid excessive selling and pay attention to the market sentiment changes around the listing of the second batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth shows that most of the operating rates have rebounded, with the demand in the real - estate market exceeding the same period last year, and inflation is characterized by the strengthening of oil prices [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Economic Growth: Most Operating Rates Rebound 3.1.1 Production: Most Operating Rates Rebound - Power plant daily consumption fluctuates at a high level. On September 16, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 900,000 tons, up 3.6% from September 9. On September 10, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2,271,000 tons, down 6.0% from September 5 [5][12] - The blast - furnace operating rate has rebounded to the level before production cuts. On September 12, the national blast - furnace operating rate was 83.9%, up 3.5 percentage points from September 5; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 4.4 percentage points. The blast - furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 90.7%, up 1.9 percentage points [5][15] - The tire operating rate has significantly rebounded. On September 11, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 65.6%, up 5.8 percentage points from September 4; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 73.5%, up 6.0 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to rise. On September 11, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from September 4; the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.4%, the same as on September 4 [5][18] 3.1.2 Demand: Real - Estate Sales Exceed the Same Period Last Year - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities exceeded the same period last year. From September 1 - 16, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, up 9.0% from the same period in August, up 11.7% from the same period in September last year, and down 25.3% from the same period in September 2023 [5][22] - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In September, retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 3% year - on - year [5][24] - The rebound of steel prices weakened. On September 16, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 1.1%, 1.2%, and 0.6% respectively compared with September 9. The inventory of steel products rose to the level of the same period last year. On September 12, the inventory of five major steel products was 1,095,100 tons, up 174,000 tons from September 5 [5][30] - The decline of cement prices slowed down. On September 16, the national cement price index decreased by 0.4% compared with September 9. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.7% and 1.4% respectively, weaker than the national average [5][31] - Glass prices rebounded for two consecutive weeks. On September 16, the active glass futures contract price was 1,236 yuan/ton, up 3.1% from September 9 [5][37] - The container shipping freight index declined again. On September 12, the CCFI index decreased by 2.1% compared with September 5, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.2% [5][38] 3.2 Inflation: Strengthening of Oil Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Linger at a Low Level - Pig prices linger at a low level. On September 16, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from September 9. The month - on - month decline narrowed [5][45] - The agricultural product price index declined slightly. On September 16, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with September 9. By variety, eggs (up 3.6%) > mutton (up 0.9%) > chicken (up 0.8%) > beef (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.1%) > fruits (down 1.3%) > vegetables (down 2.1%) [5][48] 3.2.2 PPI: Strengthening of Oil Prices - Oil prices strengthened. On September 16, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.7 and $64.5 per barrel respectively, up 2.6% and 3.0% from September 9 [5][52] - Copper and aluminum prices continued to rise. On September 16, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.4% and 3.8% respectively compared with September 9 [5][55] - The decline of the domestic commodity index widened month - on - month. On September 16, the Nanhua industrial products index increased by 1.9% compared with September 9, and the CRB index increased by 0.3%. Most industrial product prices fell in September [5][57]