Group 1: Policy Differences - The new policy financial tools in 2023 are aimed at supporting domestic demand and technological innovation, contrasting with the 2022 focus on stabilizing growth[3] - The new tools will prioritize eight key sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon initiatives, with 20% of funding directed to private enterprises[3][10] - Infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly, with August's year-on-year growth rates at -5.9% and -6.4% for new and old standards respectively, indicating a shift in funding usage towards debt repayment rather than project construction[3][10] Group 2: Funding Sources and Economic Impact - The funding sources for the new policy tools differ from 2022, as the current PSL rate is higher than the issuance rate of policy bonds, reducing the necessity for PSL support[4][21] - If the new policy financial tools leverage the same 5.5 times ratio as in 2022, the 500 billion yuan allocation could mobilize 2.75 trillion yuan in new social financing, potentially driving 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment[5][30] - The net financing of local government bonds has been negative, with a cumulative net financing of -421.9 billion yuan from January to September 2023, reflecting a reduced willingness for traditional infrastructure investment[10][21] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There may be discrepancies in understanding the policy details, which could lead to differences between expectations and actual implementation[6][31] - The timing of policy rollout and its impact on investment may fall short of expectations, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches and construction activity may slow down[6][31]

- The report discusses the overall performance of the four major stock index futures, with the CSI 500 futures showing the largest increase of 3.83% and the SSE 50 futures showing the smallest increase of 1.00%[3] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts decreased compared to the previous week, with the IH futures showing the largest decrease of -24.59% and the IC futures showing the smallest decrease of -5.41%[3] - The basis levels for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are provided, with the IF and IM discounts deepening, the IC discount narrowing, and the IH discount turning into a premium[3] - The cross-period spread rates for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are given, with the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts' cross-period spread rates being at the 45.80%, 49.70%, 60.20%, and 40.00% percentiles since 2019, respectively[3] - The report mentions that there are no opportunities for positive or negative arbitrage in the IF main contract based on the closing prices[4] - The dividend forecast indicates that the dividends for the main contracts of the four major index futures have minimal impact on the September main contracts' points[4] - The market sentiment has improved, with the IH basis turning from a discount to a premium and the total open interest of the four major index futures increasing, with the IC showing the most significant increase[4][13] - The report includes a detailed explanation of the calculation methods for index futures arbitrage, including the formulas for positive and negative arbitrage returns[46] - The dividend estimation method is explained, which involves predicting the dividend points based on historical dividend patterns and the current EPS and payout ratio[47][48]

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 8 月利润同比高增是低基数、反内卷带动上游行业毛利率上行、投资收益非常规节点确认等因素共同作用的结果，随 着基数走高、投资收益对利润的支持减弱，9 月利润同比增速或开始回落。更值得关注的是反内卷带来的上游企业毛 利率上行是否可持续，从大宗商品价格上看，9 月前三周商务部生产资料价格指数持续下滑，均值环比 9 月下滑了 0.5%，需关注后续反内卷对大宗商品价格和企业利润的影响。 风险提示 中美贸易摩擦、关税上调和全球供应链调整，或致出口波动及企业利润下滑等风险加大 国内政策、海外地缘政治等可能持续影响大宗商品价格及相关行业利润表现 关注后续国内基本面变化，跟踪后续景气度波动以及对企业营业收入和利润的影响 8 月规模以上工业企业利润同比大幅回升 21 个百分点至 19.8%，低基数、反内卷下上游行业毛利率改善、个别行业投 资收益确认是推动本月当月利润同比大幅走高的三个主要原因。 按照估算，低基数贡献了 6.7 个百分点1的利润增速回升，位居第三。除基数外，8 月企业利润环比表现并不弱，8 月 企业利润环比增长 15.2%，显著高于过去 3 年-2.5% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company plans to raise up to 4.48 billion RMB through a private placement to fund two major special glass fiber projects, repay government funds, and supplement working capital [2]. - The company has achieved significant sales in special fiber cloth, covering various product categories and has become a key player in the domestic market, breaking foreign monopolies [3]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 2.002 billion RMB, 2.608 billion RMB, and 3.060 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 29x, 23x, and 20x [4]. Summary by Sections Fundraising and Project Investment - The company announced plans to invest 1.806 billion RMB in a low dielectric fiber cloth project and 1.751 billion RMB in an ultra-low loss low dielectric fiber cloth project, totaling 3.56 billion RMB [2]. - The private placement aims to raise 4.48 billion RMB, with 3.14 billion RMB allocated for project construction, 820 million RMB for repaying government funds, and 520 million RMB for working capital [2]. Market Position and Product Development - The company has sold 8.95 million meters of special fiber cloth, completing certifications for various product categories with leading domestic and international clients [3]. - It has become the only domestic supplier and the second globally to produce low expansion cloth at scale, enhancing its competitive edge [3]. Financial Projections - The company expects a revenue increase from 25.889 billion RMB in 2023 to 33.654 billion RMB in 2027, with a projected growth rate of 9.19% in 2027 [9]. - The net profit is forecasted to recover significantly from 892 million RMB in 2024 to 3.060 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 17.34% [9].

基本内容 对比 2022 年，这一次的政策性金融工具有几个不同之处： 一是出台背景和投向不同。 今年以来，基建投资增速持续回落，8 月新、旧口径基建投资同比增速分别下滑至-5.9%、-6.4%，降幅较 7 月进一步 走阔。基建投资的回落并不是因为缺钱，今年专项债发行加速，但用于项目建设的比例收缩，用于化债清欠的比例进 一步上升。此外，年初至今城投债净融资持续为负。 与 2022 年不同的是，此次新型政策性金融工具的出台更多是为了支持扩大内需和科技创新。因此，此次新型政策性 金融工具在工具形式和支持项目方面也和 2022 年有所不同。比如，更加聚焦新质生产力，重点支持数字经济、人工 智能、低空经济、消费基础设施、绿色低碳、农业农村、交通物流、市政园区等八大领域，其中 20%必须投向民营企 业。 二是资金来源可能也不完全相似。 2022 年政策性开发性金融工具的资金来源是政策性开发性银行发债和央行 PSL 支持。 与 2022 年不同的是，当前 PSL 利率高于政金债发行利率。如果央行维持 PSL 利率不变，此次新型政策性金融工具由 PSL 支持的必要性不强，这也是 8 月政金债净融资较多，但 PSL 并未新增的 ...

风险提示 政府债发行受多方面因素影响、历史经验不完全适用、政策超预期、海外市场波动。 9 月复盘：9 月资金面较 8 月小幅收紧 9 月资金面环比收紧，但相较历史同期收紧幅度有限。9 月各期限资金利率中枢小幅上移，DR001、DR007、DR014 运行 中枢分别上行 4bp、1bp、3bp，从 DR007 偏离政策利率幅度来看，9 月 DR007 向上偏离 OMO 7 天幅度为 9bp，较 8 月的 8bp 小幅走阔。对比历史同期来看，历年 9 月 DR007 偏离政策利率幅度多较 8 月走阔，2016 年以来 9 月两者利差环比 走阔均值为 7bp，但今年 9 月资金利率收紧幅度明显低于历史同期均值。 今年 9 月央行净投放资金规模较历史同期偏高。截至 28 日，9 月央行通过逆回购、买断式逆回购及 MLF 合计净投放 资金 9760 亿，投放水平仅次于 2023 年 9 月。从历年 9 月资金利率的日度走势来看，和以往 9 月资金利率在月末"先 下后上"的走势略有不同，今年 9 月资金面抬升趋势可能在税期前后有所显现，随后到月末反而小幅走低。显示出央 行对资金面的精准把控及呵护态度，整体流动性虽然较 8 ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数继续回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回升，通胀预期回落。离岸美元 流动性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面整体平衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 上周两融净买入 264.79 亿元，行业上，两融主要净买入电子、通信、电新等板块，净卖出有色、医药、非银等板块。 其中，房地产、通信、传媒等板块融资买入占比环比上升。风格上，两融继续净买入大盘/中盘/小盘成长、小盘价值。 龙虎榜交易热度继续回落 上周龙虎榜买卖总额、龙虎榜买卖总额占全 A 成交额之比均继续回落。行业层面，纺服、电力及公用事业、电子等板 块龙虎榜买卖总额占比相对较高且仍在上升。 主动偏股基金仓位有所回落，ETF 被整体净申购 市场交易热度有所回落，除深证 100 外，其余主要指数波动率同样回落。行业上，电子、汽车、消费者服务、房地产、 纺服、通信等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，通信板块的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、通信、有色、食品饮料等板块调研热度居前，机械、交运、银行、消费者服务等板块的调研热度环比仍 在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a transition towards a bull market, driven by recovering demand for physical assets amidst supply constraints, particularly in the copper market [3][9][12] - Recent disruptions in copper supply, notably from the Grasberg mine, are expected to create price elasticity for future manufacturing demand recovery [9][12] - The report highlights a shift from a focus on financial assets to physical assets, indicating a potential new cycle for resource commodities [4][12] Group 2: Key Companies and Industries - **Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH)** is positioned for growth due to increased overseas demand and domestic infrastructure projects, with a favorable outlook for its core business [14] - **Non-Banking Financial: Sichuan Shuangma (000935.SZ)** is transitioning to an innovative drug CDMO model, with significant growth potential from its investment projects and pharmaceutical capacity expansion [15][16] - **Food and Beverage: Angel Yeast (600298.SH)** is expected to benefit from overseas expansion and improved domestic demand, with a favorable cost environment [17] - **Transportation: Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH)** is set to gain from industry supply-demand improvements and reduced interest expenses, with positive short-term catalysts from seasonal demand [18] - **Retail: Gu Ming (1364.HK)** is leveraging a unique store expansion strategy in the competitive milk tea market, with significant growth potential in coffee products [19] - **Media and Internet: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)** is integrating AI across its ecosystem, enhancing its competitive edge and driving growth through high-margin businesses [20][21] - **Electronics: Lante Optics (688127.SH)** is experiencing strong demand in various sectors, with supply constraints on production equipment [22] - **Computing: Hikvision (002415.SZ)** is seeing a recovery in operating quality and profitability, with a focus on AI-driven products [23] - **Pharmaceuticals: Innovent Biologics (9969.HK)** is a leader in hematology and autoimmune therapies, with significant growth potential from its core products [24] - **Defense and Military: Guobo Electronics (688375.SH)** is positioned to benefit from growth in military and satellite internet sectors, with a strong market outlook [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the simulated credit style portfolio yields have generally declined, while the losses in most interest rate style portfolios have narrowed [3][11] - The AA+ medium-short secondary bonds and interest rate bonds in the heavy positions have stabilized in yield compared to early this month [3][18] - The average weekly yield of the credit style portfolio has decreased by 7 basis points to -0.11%, which is less than the recovery seen last week, indicating a controlled overall decline [3][18] Group 2 - In terms of yield sources, most strategy combinations have seen an increase in coupon rates, with city investment and mixed bullet strategies rising by over 0.04 basis points [4][26] - The annualized coupon rates for medium-long strategies, including city investment duration, bullet, and perpetual bond duration combinations, have risen to over 2.16% [4][26] - The coupon contributions of the credit style portfolio have fallen into the range of -35% to 0%, indicating that coupon yields are unable to cover capital loss [4][26] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, the cumulative excess losses and volatility of the perpetual bond duration strategy have both increased [5][30] - The cumulative excess yields for city investment short-end sinking, commercial bank bond bullet, and brokerage bond duration strategies are 21.3 basis points, 14.2 basis points, and -0.8 basis points respectively [5][30] - The short-duration deposit strategies have outperformed, with excess yields reaching the highest point since March [5][32]

①水泥：本周全国高标均价 351 元/t，同比-35 元/t，环比+5 元/t，全国平均出货率 46.5%，环比-1.9pct，库容比为 65.7%，环比+0.9pct，同比+0.3pct。②玻璃：本周浮法均价 1224.74 元/吨，环比上涨 16.79 元/吨，涨幅 1.39%，截 至 9 月 18 日重点监测省份生产企业库存天数约 26.18 天，较上周四减少 0.69 天。截至本周四，2.0mm 镀膜面板主流 订单价格 13 元/平方米左右，环比持平。③混凝土搅拌站：本周混凝土搅拌站产能利用率为 7.67%，环比+0.17pct。 ④玻纤：本周国内 2400tex 无碱缠绕直接纱均价 3524.75 元/吨，环比持平，电子布市场主流报价 4.1-4.2 元/米不 等，环比持平。⑤电解铝：美强劲数据打压美联储降息预期 铝价短期内震荡回升为主。⑥钢铁：钢材产量有所下降， 主要集中在螺纹钢产量下降较为明显。⑦其他：原油价格环比上涨，煤炭、有机硅、PE 价格环比下跌。 【重要变动】 ①9 月 25 日，中国巨石发布回购预案，拟以不超过 22 元/股回购不低于不低于 3,000 万股（含），不超过 4,000 ...