本周（2026/1/3-2026/1/9）交运指数持平，沪深 300 指数上涨 2.8%，跑输大盘 2.8%，排名 28/29。交运子板块中航 空公交板块涨幅最大(+2.4%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-3.0%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周邮政快递累计揽收量约 38.4 亿件，环比-5.3%,同比-5.7%；累计投递 量约 38.2 亿件，环比-6.1%，同比-6.7%。反内卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，快递旺季来临，反内卷涨价已兑现。考 虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。低价件减少，头部快递市场份额提升，看好中通快递。 物流：危化品水运价格环比持平，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 3979 点，同比 -7.4%，环比+1.2%。上周液体化学品内贸海运价格为 169 元/吨，同比-8.98%，环比持平。本周对二甲苯（PX）开工率 为 88.9%，环比+0.5pct，同比-2.5pct；甲醇开工率为 86.4%，环比-0.2pct，同比+6.7pct；乙二醇开工率为 64.5%， 环比-0.3%，同比+2.7pct。发力智慧物流，主业受 ...

关注台积电法说会，26 年 AI 展望有望继续强劲增长。台积电将于 1 月 15 日召开法说会，除了对 26Q1 业绩做出 展望外，将对 2026 年需求景气展望与资本支出规划，我们预计在 AI 强需带动下，26Q1 有望淡季不淡，2026 年 AI 展望有望继续强劲增长，受益于英伟达 GPU 价量齐升及 ASIC 需求爆发，台积电将大力扩产 2nm、3nm 制程及 CoWoS 产能，2026 年资本开支也有望超预期。台积电 2025 年 12 月合并营收 3350 亿元新台币，月减 2.5%，年增 20.4%，创历年同期新高，25Q4 营收首度突破 1 万亿元新台币关卡，达到 10460.8 亿元新台币，季增 5.7%，年增 20.5%，创单季新高。台积电先进制程有望自 2026 年起至 2029 年连续四年涨价，看涨 3%至 10%不等，虽然台积 电报价上涨，但是客户仍踊跃预定先进制程产能。台积电 2nm 发展较快，流片量（tape-outs）已达到 3nm 技术 同期的 1.5 倍。存储芯片继续强劲涨价，根据 TrendForce 数据，26Q1 预估 1Q26 一般型 DRAM 合约价季增 55-60 ...

行业观点 预期差一：按发射规划 or 按 GW 目标 当前空天市场发展如火如荼，在计算市场空间时普遍采用大型低轨星座发射计划或太空计算星座的规划来预测， 但由于火箭资源相对紧张，截至 2025 年 12 月，GW 星座在轨卫星数量仅 136 颗，千帆星座在轨卫星数量仅 108 颗，可能导致市场对于卫星发射进度预判低于预期。2025 年 11 月，马斯克表示，将扩大星链 V3 卫星规模，建 设太空数据中心，目标在 4-5 年将通过星舰完成每年 100GW 的数据中心部署。根据新浪财经报道，2025 年 12 月马斯克在 X 平台回应中提到，每年发射 100 万吨卫星，每颗卫星功率 100 千瓦，年度 AI 算力增长 100 吉瓦。 假设 V3 卫星质量 1200-2000 公斤，这意味着需要 50-80 万颗卫星的惊人规模。我们认为，中期随着星舰运营趋 于稳定，且其他科技巨头纷纷发力太空算力，美国有望年发射 20GW 太空算力，按 starlink V3 单星功率 100kw 测算，大约对应 20w 颗 starlink V3 卫星上天，考虑卫星迭代升级后卫星数量可能会有所减少。国内方面，由于 近地轨道资源有限 ...

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 1.94% to $12,702.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.23% to 101,400 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 6.29% week-on-week, marking six consecutive weeks of accumulation, with total inventory up by 168,100 tons year-on-year [1][12] - The operating rate of the yellow copper rod industry decreased by 0.61% to 46.98%, while the enameled wire industry saw a decline of 0.66% in operating rate to 74.87% [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 2.22% to $3,088.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 6.13% to 24,300 yuan per ton [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.1%, indicating a mixed performance across different aluminum processing sectors [2][13] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 80.51% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.36% to $4,487.9 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 2 tons to 1,067.13 tons [3][14] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, have contributed to a strong and volatile market for gold [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 2.90%, with November exports of rare earth permanent magnets rising by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [4][36] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies and ongoing supply constraints are likely to support future demand and price increases in the rare earth sector [4][36] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 11.5% to 131,800 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 10.9% to 126,900 yuan per ton [4][60] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,500 tons, with a slight increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [4][60] Group 6: Cobalt - The price of cobalt in the Jiangxi market rose by 1.1% to 460,000 yuan per ton, with cobalt intermediate prices also showing slight increases [5][63] - The overall cobalt market remains strong, with supply tightness expected to continue, supporting price stability [5][63] Group 7: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 1.8% to $17,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 4.3% to 138,000 yuan per ton [5][64] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, leading to price increases [5][64]

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数继续回落至 40% 本期 TL/T 多空比、政策利差、基金-农商买入量分位值分别回落 54、42、27 个百分点，不动产比价、基金超长债买 入量、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值也不同程度下滑。除此外，配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别上升 41、 33 个百分点，全市场换手率、市场利差等指标分位值略有回升。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 20% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量降至 4 个（占比 20%）、位于中性区间的指标数量升至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量仍为 10 个（占比 50%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是， TL/T 多空比、政策利差均由过 热区间降至偏冷区间，基金超长债买入量由中性区间降至偏冷区间；配置盘力度则由中性区间升至过热区间，上市公 司理财买入量、全市场换手率由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 机构行为分位均值上升 TL/T 多空比降至偏冷区间 本期交易热度类指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量占比降至 33%、位于中性区间的指标数量占比升至 50%，位于偏冷 区间的指标数量占比仍为 17%。TL/T 多空比分位值分别下降 5 ...

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周，受节假日因素影响，聊天助手类应用活跃度普遍回落，其中 Kimi 降幅较为显著。行业动态方面，数据与 生态整合加速，微软收购 Osmos 优化 Fabric 平台数据流程，Snowflake 以 10 亿美元收购 Observe 布局 AI 可观 测性；谷歌 Gmail 全面集成 Gemini3 模型重塑邮件体验；阿里高德发布世界模型 FantasyWorld，登顶 WorldScore 榜单并落地低成本 3D 街景生成功能。 - 2025 年 11 月，中国智能手机销量达到约 2600 万台，同比上升约 10%。苹果、小米、华为、荣耀、OPPO 以约 23%、15%、14%、13%、12%的份额排名前五。具体型号方面，苹果 iPhone 17 Pro Max 销量排名第一，iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro 排名第二、第三。11 月国内 PC 市场销量有所回暖，台式机销量约为 152 万台，同比上升约 7%。笔电销量约为 195 万台，同比上升约 4%。 | 海外市场行情 ...

本周行情综述 行业概况：基本面方面，港口贸易商的春旺补库预期驱动铁矿价格上涨，榆林核减 1900 万吨产能引发焦煤反内卷预 期，原料通胀带动本周黑色产业链价格普涨，但钢铁环节价差环比-7.4 元，目前吨亏 38.6 元；行情方面，本周中信 钢铁指数涨幅 3.3%，跑输大盘 0.5%。据 Mysteel 统计，钢企盈利率在 37.7%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳定。 钢铁：本周国内热轧板卷价格趋弱运行、以震荡为主。价格方面，据 Mysteel，全国 24 个主要市场 4.75mm 热轧板卷 均价 3306 元/吨，较 12 月 31 日上调 16 元/吨。库存方面，热轧板卷社会库存 395.24 万吨，周环比+5.04 万吨；重点 城市合计 543.76 万吨。供需方面，宏观预期托底叠加原料走强带动成材跟涨，但现实端高位成交偏少，更多受成本 推动而上移。展望方面，期货冲高后弱现实仍有约束，预计下周热卷价格或窄幅回调。本 1 月 1 日出口许可证+出口 退税联网核查开始实行，或对钢铁买单构成制约，短期关注出口转内销带来的基本面压力。 双焦：本周焦煤价格底部略有抬强。价格方面，据 Mysteel，焦煤价格近期触及阶段性底 ...

行情回顾： 本周（2026.01.05-2026.01.09）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3010.28 点(周环比+0.98%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4758.92 点（周环比+2.79%），深证综指收于 2660.05 点（周环比+5.10%），上证综指收于 4120.43 点（周环比+3.82%），科 创板收于 1475.97 点（周环比+9.80%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 元旦前随着消费端的好转，生猪价格底部回升，节后整体处于供需双弱的情况，目前生猪价格底部震荡。本周生猪出 栏均重为 128.54 公斤/头，生猪出栏均重持续下降，在此期间的过程中猪价相对坚挺，主要系 12 月集团的超量出栏。 从供给端角度来看，1 月份预计出栏总量环比减少，但是由于元旦后供需双弱以及行业二育入场，预计春节前后生猪 价格仍有下探空间。政策端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年下半年猪价上涨。 短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完 全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric new sector, particularly highlighting "space photovoltaic" as the strongest main line for 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining market recognition due to its significant value, inflation trends, and high barriers to entry, with expectations for continued market expansion [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage and lithium battery price increases, as well as the growth potential in wind power and green hydrogen under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3][12]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to create a "rush" for shipments, which may help mitigate the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations in Q1 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The space photovoltaic sector is recognized as a core branch of commercial aerospace, with its advantages becoming increasingly acknowledged by the market [2][6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is set for April 1, 2026, which is anticipated to lead to a surge in shipments to counteract seasonal demand dips [9][10]. - The report suggests actively participating in the space photovoltaic market, as the trend is expected to continue [2][6]. Wind Power - The report forecasts continued growth in domestic wind power installations in 2026, with an expected increase in offshore and onshore installations [12][13]. - The global wind power demand is projected to maintain a long-term positive outlook, driven by AI and electrification trends [13][14]. - Key recommendations include focusing on manufacturers with improved profitability and those benefiting from domestic and international market expansions [12][32]. Lithium Batteries - The report notes a reduction in the export tax rebate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation set for January 1, 2027 [16][17]. - Price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) have seen significant increases, with most customers accepting a processing fee hike of 1,000 yuan per ton [16][20]. - The lithium battery sector is expected to experience continued demand growth, particularly in the context of rising prices and expanding production capacities [18][33]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Bloom Energy has secured a $2.65 billion order, indicating strong demand for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and validating their commercial viability [29][30]. - The report highlights the potential for green hydrogen and related technologies to experience significant growth, driven by policy support and increasing demand [30][31]. - Key investment opportunities include companies involved in green methanol production and hydrogen fuel cell components [30][32]. Grid & Industrial Control - Significant investments in grid infrastructure are planned, with Southern Power Grid expecting over 20% growth in Q1 2026 [23][24]. - The report identifies opportunities in the industrial control sector, particularly for companies involved in robotics and automation technologies [28][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand in the automation market [28][32].

核心观点： 机器人：景气度加速向上，马斯克宣布第三代机器人设计定型，发布在即。 全球首款全身力控小尺寸人形机器人"上纬启元 Q1"正式亮相。上纬新材发布全球首款全身力控小尺寸人形机器人 "上纬启元 Q1"，采用轻量化路线，通过工程化压缩体型与重量，实现"可打包携带"的产品形态。公司公告显示， 该业务专注于个人与家庭场景，未面向工商业领域，目前仍处于产品开发阶段；对于极客和创作者群体，Q1 因体型小、 结构开放，可适配智元灵创平台及开发接口，成为可反复调试改造的载体。 腾讯 Robotics X 实验室与宇树科技达成战略协作。前者通过 Tairos（钛螺丝）具身智能大模型，为宇树机器人本体 提供人机交互友好的导游导览导购服务支持，共同打造行业应用标杆。Robotics X 实验室以 SDK 和云服务形式输出 规划大模型与多模态感知模型，由宇树科技及生态企业完成系统集成与多场景落地交付。 征和工业发布链式灵巧手"臻手・CHOHO Hand"。征和工业在 "具身智能灵巧手发展开年论坛暨全球首创链式灵巧 手发布会"上，发布链式灵巧手"臻手・CHOHO Hand"，现场展示其单手 40kg 的承重能力。该产品兼具高承重 ...