Global Assets: Rebalancing Continues - The current market rebalancing is based on internal and external recovery, with AI trading entering its second phase, leading to a focus on the actual impact of AI on various industries [3][13] - From February 16 to February 20, 2026, global risk assets showed an overall upward trend, but internal performance was mixed, with industrial, financial, and energy sectors gaining favor [3][13] - The focus has shifted from whether AI is a bubble to identifying the real industrial impacts and critical supply-demand issues as AI transitions from a thematic to a macro factor [3][13] Manufacturing Cycle Further Rising - The U.S. GDP data for Q4 2025 showed slower growth primarily due to government spending disruptions, while AI-related investments remained strong [4][25] - Non-AI and residential investment growth is showing signs of bottoming out, indicating a broader recovery in investment activities beyond just AI [4][25] - The February manufacturing PMI data indicated a recovery in global manufacturing, with Europe exceeding expectations and the U.S. maintaining expansion, suggesting a positive trend in manufacturing cycles [4][25][34] Commodities: Transitioning from Financial Overtrading to Industrial Pricing - Recent fluctuations in industrial and precious metals prices are attributed to macro and industrial events, with a return to real supply-demand signals expected [5][44] - Geopolitical risks continue to support industrial metal prices, while demand from tech giants for AI investments remains robust, indicating a potential new support for demand [5][44] - Historical data suggests that current copper and aluminum price ratios are low compared to historical manufacturing PMI levels, indicating potential for price recovery [5][44][45] Focus on Global Physical Assets vs. Chinese Assets - The core of market rebalancing is not about the existence of an AI bubble but rather the macro impacts of AI combined with monetary and major country policy choices [6][56] - The relative smooth path for future U.S. interest rate cuts is expected to support the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese asset capacity [6][56] - Specific investment recommendations include physical assets like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors benefiting from capital inflows and consumption recovery in China [6][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a price surge, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 170,000 CNY/ton, a 42% increase from the previous month, and lithium hydroxide prices increasing by 62% to 165,000 CNY/ton [1] - In December, the wholesale sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.42 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 26% for the entire year [1] - The report highlights a reversal in the lithium carbonate cycle, driven by domestic energy storage capacity subsidy policies and the explosive growth of global new energy demand [3][32] Summary by Sections Section 1: Research Insights - The lithium carbonate market is at a cyclical turning point, with prices expected to rise significantly, impacting the entire lithium battery supply chain [14][15] - Sodium batteries are emerging as a cost-effective alternative, with a clear long-term cost advantage over lithium iron phosphate batteries [26][30] Section 2: Industry Tracking and Review - The global new energy vehicle market showed strong growth in December, particularly in China and Europe, while the U.S. market faced challenges [34][36] - In December, domestic energy storage installations reached 63 GWh, a 95% year-on-year increase, indicating a shift towards market-driven growth [40] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in lithium carbonate, separators, and solid-state battery technologies, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [7][32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The transportation index decreased by 1.4% while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.4%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [1] - During the Spring Festival travel period, the total number of people moving across regions increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in waterway travel at 21.3% [2] - The express delivery sector is benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition, with a recommendation for SF Holding based on valuation and operational resilience [2] - The logistics sector is recommended for Haichen Co., as the chemical product price index shows a decline, but operational metrics remain stable [3] - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with domestic flights up by 5.67% year-on-year, and a recommendation for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4] - The shipping sector is seeing fluctuations in freight rates, with geopolitical tensions driving oil transport rates higher, and a recommendation for companies involved in oil transport [5] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1088.14 points, down 3.0% week-on-week and 21.6% year-on-year [22] - Oil transport rates are increasing due to geopolitical risks, with the BDTI index at 1756.4 points, up 2.2% week-on-week and 91.5% year-on-year [35] Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase in passenger numbers and a recommendation for airlines based on improved load factors and pricing [47] - The Brent crude oil price is at $71.76 per barrel, reflecting a 5.92% increase week-on-week, which may impact operational costs for airlines [64] Rail and Road - The rail sector is seeing an upward trend in passenger volumes, with a year-on-year increase of 8.52% in December [73] - The road transport sector is stable, with a slight decrease in freight traffic but a recommendation for investment based on dividend yields exceeding government bond rates [75]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points, respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing overseas inventory demand. The prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 13.51%, dysprosium oxide by 9.02%, and terbium oxide by 5.90% [3][18][19]. - Tin prices have shown volatility, with a decrease of 10.74% in the current period. The potential ban on tin raw material exports from Indonesia may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies, positively impacting tin prices in the long term [4][28]. - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, with tungsten concentrate rising by 15.99% and ammonium paratungstate by 15.11%. The report suggests that the strategic reserve initiatives in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority in global markets [4][40]. - Antimony prices have shown a slight increase, with antimony ingot prices up by 0.62% and antimony concentrate by 2.13%. The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to a price rebound [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices have stabilized, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by 2.97% and ferromolybdenum by 3.33%. The report notes that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support further price increases [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Commodity prices for rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum have shown upward trends, while tin prices have decreased [16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Insights 2.1 Rare Earths - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the rising prices of rare earths, with significant export demand expected to continue [3][18][19]. 2.2 Tin - The potential export ban from Indonesia could lead to increased demand for tin processing, positively affecting prices in the long run [4][28]. 2.3 Tungsten - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten in global markets, with prices rising significantly due to supply constraints and increased military spending [4][40]. 2.4 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as export conditions improve, with a focus on high-growth resource companies [5][47]. 2.5 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are projected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased demand from the defense sector [6][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This year's Spring Festival holiday had unique advantages, including the longest duration in history and a consumption - stimulating activity. It showed excellent performance in multiple dimensions, especially in travel and consumption. The real - estate market showed signs of hitting the bottom, while the film market was dismal. Overseas capital markets had various trends due to factors like Fed's FOMC meeting minutes, geopolitical conflicts, and AI industry development [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Travel - The Spring Festival travel rush saw a continuous increase in long - distance travel. The total cross - regional passenger flow from February 2nd to 21st this year increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2025 and 26.3% compared to 2019, reaching a record high. The number of passengers in various transportation modes increased by about 5% - 6%. The self - driving travel enthusiasm was significantly boosted, with the national population migration scale index from the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 22.2% this year compared to 2025 [3][9][12]. - The difference in growth rates between the data from the Ministry of Transport and Baidu Migration was likely due to statistical methods. The non - operational passenger volume on roads accounted for 81.3% of the total cross - regional passenger flow, indicating that self - driving was the main mode of travel during the Spring Festival [16][17]. Consumption - Retail, catering, and service consumption were active. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, higher than the growth rates during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2025. The consumption of domestic tourism on key platforms increased by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday. The rental car order volume on key platforms increased by 26%, and the north - south cross - region orders increased by 196% [4][19][22]. - The "trade - in" policy continued to release consumer demand. By February 19th, the trade - in of consumer goods benefited 28.88 million people, driving sales of 198.02 billion yuan. Smart devices maintained high growth, and Hainan's duty - free sales increased rapidly [22]. Film Market The film market continued its dismal performance since 2025, hitting a new low in the Spring Festival season in the past 7 years. As of the afternoon of the sixth day of the first lunar month, the cumulative box office of this year's Spring Festival season was 4.91 billion yuan, and it was unlikely to exceed 6 billion yuan. The number of screenings reached a new high, but the number of movie - goers hit a new low, mainly due to the lack of high - quality works [25]. Real - Estate Market The real - estate market showed a weak rebound at the bottom, with first - tier cities having a stronger rebound than second - and third - tier cities. From the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month, the average daily sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.04 million square meters, a 24.9% increase compared to the same period last year. The transaction and listing prices of second - hand houses in January also showed signs of stabilization. If the trend in the past 1 - 2 months continues, the real - estate sales may have hit the bottom [5][29]. Overseas Capital Markets - Most overseas bond yields declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield adjusted upwards due to the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and tariff policy fluctuations. European bond markets generally strengthened under the expectation of easing. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield declined by 10.9bp, while the 10 - year Indian government bond yield increased by 4.8bp [6][32]. - The US dollar index strengthened, and the copper - gold ratio fluctuated weakly. Most overseas commodities rose, with oil and coal prices rising by more than 5%. Precious metals and some agricultural products also had varying degrees of increase [35][37]. - European and American stock markets rose collectively, while Asian stock markets were divided. The US stock market rebounded strongly, and European stock markets followed suit. The South Korean stock market hit a record high, while the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets were weak. The FTSE A50 index rose 0.3% during the holiday [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company announced a stock incentive plan on February 13, granting 6.7268 million shares to 72 executives and key personnel, representing 0.76% of the total share capital, reflecting strong confidence in future growth [2][3]. - The incentive plan sets ambitious performance targets, with the highest tier aiming for revenue of 2.2 billion, 2.5 billion, and 3 billion yuan for 2026-2028, representing year-on-year growth of 54.49%, 13.64%, and 20.00% respectively [3]. - The new chairman, who took over in 2021, is issuing this incentive plan for the first time, which, along with a significant increase in his shareholding from 13.68% to 26.68%, supports the growth outlook [4]. - The company is expected to drive growth primarily through its chip segment, with acquisitions planned for December 2025 to enhance capabilities in various applications, including laptops and smart devices [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.11, 0.19, and 0.26 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 123, 74, and 53 [5]. - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are 1.391 billion, 1.592 billion, 1.424 billion, 2.146 billion, and 2.448 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.10%, 14.44%, -10.51%, 50.70%, and 14.05% respectively [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 72 million, 107 million, 98 million, 164 million, and 230 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 2.68%, 48.50%, -7.64%, 66.96%, and 39.73% [10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 287.03 RMB based on a 21x P/E for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The company has over 30 years of experience in the power sports industry, with three main business segments: all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), fuel motorcycles, and electric two-wheelers. It has established a global dealer network with over 2,000 domestic and 7,000 international dealers [1][2]. - The electric two-wheeler segment is experiencing rapid growth, with the brand ZEEHO positioned in the high-end market, aiming for profitability. The company plans to expand its dealer network significantly in the next three years [1]. - The all-terrain vehicle segment is shifting towards higher-value products, with the introduction of the U10PRO model, which has successfully penetrated the high-end market. The company is also restructuring its global production capacity to mitigate risks [1][2]. - The fuel motorcycle segment is seeing growth through exports, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, with the introduction of the CFLite brand targeting lower-end markets [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1989, has evolved from component manufacturing to a leading player in the power sports industry, with a focus on both fuel and electric vehicles. It has established overseas production facilities in Thailand and Mexico [15][16]. Business Structure - The company has a comprehensive product matrix covering ATVs, fuel motorcycles, and electric two-wheelers, catering to various market segments and consumer needs [17]. Global Production Layout - The company’s revenue is driven by both European and Chinese markets, with significant growth observed in these regions. The production capacity is balanced across different vehicle types, with plans for further expansion [27][30]. All-Terrain Vehicles - The global market for ATVs is characterized by a shift towards higher-value UTV/SSV products, with the company maintaining a stable market share amidst competitive pressures [36][39]. Fuel Motorcycles - The global fuel motorcycle market is stable, with the company focusing on expanding its share in the mid-to-large displacement segment. The introduction of the CFLite brand aims to capture emerging markets [55][60]. Electric Two-Wheelers - The electric two-wheeler segment is positioned for significant growth, with the company’s products gaining traction in the market. The focus on high-end features and technology is expected to drive profitability [1][4].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of an increase exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [57]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that upstream materials are a key inflationary component in the PCB upgrade iteration process, with three main conclusions: the number of PCBs is increasing, the value of PCBs per cabinet/GPU is rising, and upstream materials are undergoing continuous upgrades [2][8]. - The market is focusing on materials that are close to "ultimate" technology or "upgrade" directions, indicating a potential profit release in 2026 [3][18]. - The report highlights the significant price inflation in electronic fabrics, particularly Low-CTE and Q fabrics, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from high-end applications [4][15][24]. Summary by Sections Upstream Materials - The report identifies that the PCB board count is increasing, and the corresponding value per cabinet/GPU is also on the rise, particularly with the introduction of new PCB designs like the Vera Rubin NVL144 CPX [2][8]. - Continuous upgrades in PCB upstream materials are necessary to meet the higher demands for transmission speed and signal integrity from AI applications [11][12]. - Upstream materials are prone to inflation, with significant price differences observed in various generations of electronic fabrics [15][18]. Electronic Fabrics - The report predicts a continued price increase for Low-CTE fabrics in 2026 due to supply shortages and rising demand from high-end applications [4][36]. - The second-generation Low-Dk fabrics are expected to face a clear supply-demand gap in 2026, driven by the large-scale deployment of Google's TPU V7 and above [36][37]. - Q fabrics are highlighted for their superior performance and scarcity, with a gradual increase in production expected in 2027 [26][34]. Copper Foil - The report notes a clear upgrade trend in HVLP copper foil, with significant price increase potential due to rising demand from AI applications and planned expansions by leading manufacturers [5][41]. - The market for carrier copper foil is identified as a second growth pole, with a current global market size of approximately 5 billion, primarily dominated by Japanese companies [49][50]. Resins - The report discusses the importance of resin types, particularly carbon-hydrogen resins, in high-frequency and high-speed applications, with domestic companies accelerating production to meet demand [51][54].

Investment Rating - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 14.24 RMB based on a 30x PE for 2026 [3]. Core Views - The company is a dual leader in the silicone and glyphosate industries, with performance expected to recover against a backdrop of reduced competition [1]. - The company has pioneered a circular economy model utilizing chlorine, phosphorus, and silicon, achieving over 90% utilization rates for these elements [1][21]. - The company has a 7% market share in the domestic silicone market, ranking fifth, and a 10% share in glyphosate, ranking third [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company operates in three main sectors: crop protection, silicone materials, and new energy materials, with a focus on integrating phosphorus and silicon materials [14]. - The crop protection segment has developed a comprehensive system covering intermediates, active ingredients, and formulations, contributing to food security [14]. - The silicone materials segment has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with products sold in over 130 countries [14]. 2. Silicone Materials - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, leading to a price recovery for silicone products, with DMC prices rising from 11,000 RMB/ton to 14,000 RMB/ton [1]. - The company has a silicone monomer capacity of 500,000 tons, with about 80% used for self-produced downstream products [1]. - The company’s downstream silicone capacity exceeds 200,000 tons, with a conversion rate above 45% [1]. 3. Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices are expected to improve due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, with domestic capacity at 813,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of global capacity [2]. - The company has an existing glyphosate capacity of 80,000 tons, with a formulation conversion rate above 70% [2]. - The product portfolio includes over 100 varieties of herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and growth regulators, supporting an integrated development model [2]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 147 billion, 171 billion, and 186 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 1.1 billion, 6.4 billion, and 9.1 billion RMB [3]. - The company is expected to see a significant profit recovery, with net profit growth rates of 113%, 484%, and 42% for the respective years [3]. - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the company's earnings, with a current focus on recovery from recent performance lows [3][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 14.24 RMB based on a 30x PE for 2026 [3]. Core Views - The company is a dual leader in the silicone and glyphosate industries, with performance expected to recover against a backdrop of reduced competition [1]. - The company has pioneered a circular economy model utilizing chlorine, phosphorus, and silicon, achieving over 90% utilization rates for these elements [1][21]. - The company’s revenue and profit have been under pressure due to price declines in recent years, but improvements in supply and demand dynamics are anticipated to drive performance recovery [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company operates in three main sectors: crop protection, silicone materials, and new energy materials, with a focus on integrating phosphorus and silicon materials [14]. - The crop protection segment has developed a comprehensive system covering intermediates, active ingredients, and formulations, contributing to food security [14]. - The silicone materials segment has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with applications in over 130 countries [14]. 2. Silicone Materials - The company’s silicone segment is expected to benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics, with prices showing signs of recovery [1][54]. - The domestic market for silicone has a strong demand base, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10% in recent years [54]. - The company has a silicone monomer capacity of 500,000 tons, with approximately 80% used for self-produced downstream products [1]. 3. Glyphosate Sector - Glyphosate prices are expected to improve due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, with domestic production capacity constrained by policy [2]. - The company has a glyphosate active ingredient capacity of 80,000 tons, with a formulation conversion rate exceeding 70% [2]. - The company has developed a diverse product portfolio in the agricultural sector, including over 100 varieties of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides [2]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 147 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, reflecting a significant recovery from previous lows [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 0.081 RMB in 2025 to 0.673 RMB by 2027 [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability, with net profit expected to increase by 484% in 2026 [3]. 5. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 7% market share in the domestic silicone market, ranking fifth, and a 10% share in glyphosate, ranking third [1]. - The company’s revenue structure has shifted, with the agricultural segment's contribution increasing from 41% in 2020 to 49% in the first half of 2025 [24]. - The company’s profitability has shown volatility, particularly in the silicone materials segment, which has experienced significant fluctuations in gross margins [24].