四季度：政策对冲会重现吗？ 从近年的季节性规律来看，四季度历来是财政政策集中发力的高频窗口。一方面，在内需偏弱的大环境下，年度经济 目标的实现压力往往在年底集中体现，财政支出的节奏和强度通常在这一阶段明显上行；另一方面，前三季度 GDP 增 速与目标值的缺口越大，财政端加码对冲的概率也越高。无论是增发政府债，还是推进重大项目落地，财政在四季度 都具备较强的调节灵活性和政策空间。今年前三个季度的经济增速已基本明朗，而二、三季度基本面有所边际走弱， 那么今年会重演"四季度发力"吗？ 前三季度累计增速或高于年度目标，四季度"达标"压力较小。 在我们的基准情形下，根据拟合结果，三季度 GDP 增速大致落在 4.9%左右，前三季度累计增速或能达到 5.2%，高于 全年 5%左右的增长目标。从历史经验来看，参考近五年的表现，当前三季度累计增速已超出目标时，四季度新增大规 模逆周期政策的概率通常下降。按照上述测算进一步外推，今年四季度 GDP 同比增速达到约 4.6%，全年目标就基本可 以兑现。换句话说，即便四季度经济延续二、三季度的温和回落态势，只要不显著脱离中枢水平，并叠加前期政策工 具逐步落地，经济增速预计仍能稳定在 ...

投资逻辑 边走边看，等待机会。1）港股和中概整体观点：中美贸易摩擦再起，周五晚中概反应剧烈，阿里等巨头短期兑 现情绪不可避免，科技巨头的机会还是科技叙事的进展，回调再出发更健康。二梯队的互联网赛道我们还是建议 关注互联网医疗（板块的业绩兑现能力延续）。2）加密货币虚拟资产短期压力较大，暴跌后的情绪尚未修复（24 小时交易），一方面是加密货币的杠杆率高；另外一方面就是容易出现交易拥挤导致的系统失灵。短期无增量叙 事的情况下，虚拟资产的短期压力大。3）关注困境中的标的或者超跌标的，市场一直担心跨境互联网券商是否 会有进一步的政策，短期加剧了相关标的的回调，我们会持续保持跟踪。互金助贷十一新规刚落地，需要跟踪一 段时间落地执行情况。另外户外运动穿戴、咖啡龙头、海外电商或者出海等标的短期回调大，后面机会也大。 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 本周观点 边走边看，等待机会： 教育：景气略有承压。K12 教培行业由于中小机构供给增加，竞争边际加剧，龙头阿尔法能力逐渐趋稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic generative AI model companies such as iFlytek, and AI hardware companies like Hikvision, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai, as well as companies like Maifushi that can enhance paid rates and ARPU values [2] Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing significant advancements, with OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 video model and the Sora App, which allows users to create interactive videos in AI-generated scenes. This model is seen as a major breakthrough in video generation technology [4][9] - The overall performance in the second quarter showed a slight decline, but the industry is on a recovery path, with leading companies demonstrating stronger resilience compared to the overall market. The AI industry chain, military information technology, and intelligent driving sectors are performing particularly well [9] - The report anticipates that the second half of the year will see improved operational strength due to low baselines and accelerated technology deployment, with a focus on AI-related sectors [9] - The report identifies high-growth areas for 2025, including AI computing power and lidar, while also noting stable growth in software outsourcing, financial IT, quantum computing, and data elements [10][11] Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The AI industry is witnessing rapid advancements, with significant releases from major players like OpenAI and Tencent, indicating a trend towards more sophisticated AI applications [4][9] - The report highlights the importance of AI hardware and software integration, particularly in consumer and enterprise services, as well as the potential for private deployment of large models [9][10] Market Review - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, the computer industry index rose by 1.47%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index by 0.88 percentage points [11] - The report notes that the computer sector's performance is expected to improve as the market recovers and as companies adapt to new technologies [11] Upcoming Events - The report highlights key upcoming events, including the 10th China International Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 27th China International High-tech Achievements Fair, which are expected to present opportunities within the industry [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI application market is experiencing varied activity levels, with OpenAI launching its most powerful model, GPT-5Pro API, aimed at high-end markets such as research and law, priced at $15 per million tokens [12] - Intel has officially entered the 2nm era with its 18A node, marking a significant milestone in its manufacturing capabilities, although the yield and performance remain to be validated [18][22] - The Taiwanese storage industry is showing signs of recovery driven by AI demand, with companies like Phison and Winbond reporting significant revenue increases [24][27] - The Chinese smartphone market saw a decline in sales, with a 6.24% year-on-year drop in August 2025, while the PC market remained relatively stable [28][34] Summary by Sections AI Applications - The activity of AI chat applications has been affected by the holiday season, with notable changes in user engagement [10][12] - Google's new Gemini model aims to enhance AI's ability to interact with web pages, reflecting the competitive landscape in AI agent functionalities [13] AMD vs. NVIDIA - The InferenceMAX framework reveals that the competition between AMD and NVIDIA is nuanced, with performance depending on model types and interaction levels [14][15] - NVIDIA maintains an edge in low to mid-interactivity scenarios, while AMD shows competitive potential in specific high-interactivity tasks [16][17] Intel's 18A Node - Intel's 18A node represents a critical step in its strategy to regain advanced manufacturing credibility, with the first products expected to ship by late 2025 [22][23] Taiwanese Storage Industry - Phison's revenue reached NT$6.515 billion in September 2025, driven by a nearly 300% increase in PCIe SSD controller shipments, indicating strong AI-related demand [24] - Winbond reported a revenue high of NT$21.77 billion in Q3 2025, benefiting from rising DRAM contract prices and a recovering demand cycle [27] Smartphone and PC Market - In August 2025, China's smartphone sales reached approximately 20.8 million units, reflecting a decline, with Apple and OPPO leading in market share [28] - The domestic PC market remained stable, with desktop sales declining slightly and laptop sales showing a modest increase [34]

Investment Rating - The SW Machinery Equipment Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 36.94%, ranking 5th among 31 primary industry classifications, while the CSI 300 Index has increased by 17.33% [3][18]. Core Insights - The BEST project in nuclear fusion is progressing with significant bidding opportunities, including a recent tender exceeding 190 million yuan for key components [7]. - The Figure03 robot, launched by FigureAI, represents a significant advancement in general-purpose robotics, with production capabilities expected to reach 100,000 units over the next four years [7]. - The global demand for construction machinery is anticipated to rise, supported by domestic equipment renewal cycles and international market recovery, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [7]. - The engineering machinery sector is entering a new upward cycle, with excavator sales showing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% in August 2025 [36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index decreased by 0.26% over the last week, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry classifications [3][16]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector remains under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8% for September, indicating a contraction [25]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with excavator sales reaching 16,523 units in August, a 12.8% increase year-on-year [36]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is showing steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [44]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with the global new ship price index showing signs of stabilization [47]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with an increase in global drilling rig numbers and expected growth in oil and gas extraction demand [49]. Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to benefit from improved steel profitability due to declining raw material prices, leading to increased demand [53]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 35.6% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders in the first half of 2025 [55].

周五全球风险资产普跌，以美国资产和中国资产为代表的股指均出现较大跌幅；1）美股市场来看主要股指创下 4 月 中旬以来单日最大跌幅，科技股出现普遍回调；2）中国资产来看，更依赖于海外流动性的港股跌幅更大，同时前期与 海外共振较明显的科技股开始出现大幅回调。商品市场上，与全球经济周期关联度更高的工业金属跌幅领先，同样的 受中东局势变化影响的国际油价也开始出现明显回调。黄金与数字货币再度出现背离，黄金上涨同时主要数字货币出 现了大幅回调。外汇市场上美元边际走弱的同时，拥有避险属性的日元、瑞郎边际走强。本轮资产价格的波动主要来 自于海外风险事件的扰动：一方面，特朗普政府在停摆期间的永久性裁员可能对就业市场形成拖累；另一方面，更直 接的催化剂还是特朗普对华关税威胁导致中美贸易摩擦再度升级，市场风险偏好显著下行，仿佛今年 4 月"对等关税" 出台的"昨日重现"。从两个维度来看：①相比此前 4 月"对等关税"出台后资产价格的下跌幅度，本轮资产价格的 下跌幅度相对较窄；②尽管衡量市场恐慌情绪的 VIX 指数上升，但无论是绝对值的角度还是变化幅度来看，当前 VIX 指数尚未上升至比较极端的水平。我们理解，4 月"对等关税"首次 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector's potential for a reversal in 2025, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and the recovery of left-side sectors as the biggest investment opportunities for the year [5][14]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with BD (business development) activities anticipated to catalyze market movements. The upcoming ESMO conference (October 17-21) is highlighted as a key event for clinical data disclosures from domestic innovative drug companies [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recent Nobel Prize discoveries related to peripheral immune tolerance, which are relevant to the development of new therapies in oncology and autoimmune diseases. This underscores the significance of innovation in these fields [40][50]. - The report notes that the CXO industry in China is entering a recovery phase, with improvements expected in industry orders, capacity utilization, and performance metrics due to enhanced domestic investment and financing data [2][5]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector has seen a recent pullback, but the long-term upward trend remains intact. The report suggests that the market is awaiting further BD catalysts and highlights the importance of upcoming clinical data from the ESMO conference [2][13]. - The report indicates that the overall sentiment in the innovative drug sector is still positive, with a focus on potential breakthroughs in cancer and autoimmune therapies following the recent Nobel Prize discoveries [40][50]. Biologics - Novo Nordisk announced an agreement to acquire Akero for $4.7 billion, with Akero's FGF21 analog EFX showing promise as a leading therapy for metabolic dysfunction-related fatty liver disease (MASH) [3][51]. - The report suggests that EFX is the only drug in Phase 2 trials demonstrating significant fibrosis regression in F4 patients, highlighting the need for continued attention to developments in this area [51][57]. Medical Devices - The commercialization of innovative products is accelerating, with domestic replacements making significant progress. For instance, MicroPort's Tumi laparoscopic surgical robot has surpassed 100 global orders and is leading the domestic market share [4][58]. - The report notes that the Tumi robot has received market access in over 60 countries and regions, with a strong presence in high-end markets such as Europe [60][62]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - There has been a continuous increase in new drug IND and NDA applications for traditional Chinese medicine, with 92 new IND applications and 42 NDA applications reported in the first nine months of 2025 [3][64]. - The report highlights ongoing policy support for traditional Chinese medicine, which is expected to drive further innovation and development in this sector [64][65].

量化信用策略 截至 9 月 30 日，久期策略表现持续低迷。近四周，城投久期策略持续跑输基准，重仓 10 年 AA+城投债的哑铃型组合 累计超额收益降至-34bp 左右，节前一周基金对 5 年以上普信债卖盘收窄，但行情难言改善。二永债久期策略波动较 大，尽管 9 月逐次下跌后修复幅度大于普信债品种，其累计超额收益依旧收于-18bp、-30bp 的低位。相比之下，城投 短端下沉、商金债子弹型等策略组合超额收益相对靠前。 品种久期跟踪 主流品种久期防御特征明显。截至 9 月 30 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 1.76 年、2.22 年，处于 2021 年 以来 65%-80%的分位区间，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 3.67 年、 3.70 年、1.92 年，所处分位水平出现明显回落；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公 司债久期分别为 1.51 年、1.73 年、4.11 年、1.23 年，除保险公司债之外，其余品种久期同样位于较低历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 9 月 29 日，与前一周相比，非金融非地产类产业债收 ...

透视固收+系列专题（一） 初识"固收+"，从内涵发展到投资选择 2025/10/10 2 初识固收+：以"稳"为基、以"+"拓益 固收+发展盘点：在多维演进中行稳致远 固收+投资选择：兼具广度与深度的基金优选体系 3 01 初识固收+： 以"稳"为基、以"+"拓益 4 资料来源：国金证券研究所 5 | | | 6 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：业绩统计截至2025/6/30 02 固收+发展盘点： 在多维演进中行稳致远 7 8 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模统计截至2025/6/30 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模统计截至2025/6/30 9 10 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模及持有份额统计截至2025/6/30 | 11 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模统计截至2025/6/30 | 图表：不同时间维度上固收+规模增量靠前的TOP10基金公司 | | --- | | 排序 | 2025年以来 | | 近3年 | | 沂5年 | | 沂10年 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

第一，9 月 22 日国新办新闻发布会、9 月 26 日央行第三季度货币政策例会以及国庆假期人民日报发表"钟才文"七 连评都是近期观察政策的窗口。从重要会议和官媒的表述看，政策加码的诉求并不突出。 第二，从完成经济增长目标的角度看，四季度实现全年 GDP 增速 5%目标压力较小，出台增量政策的必要性偏低。 第三，从四季度的经济承受力来看，尽管消费和出口存在高基数压力，但内生动力仍有韧性，出台增量政策的必要性 偏低。 第四，鉴于增量政策的必要性不高，未来一段时间重点或将是存量政策的优化，通过调整存量政策的形式、节奏和用 途，支撑经济增长。 第五，从近期政策的表态、实现经济增长目标的必要性、四季度经济的现实压力看，当前政策重心是深化改革。 在经济压力不大、外部环境相对稳定的情况下，无论是反内卷还是要素市场化，都是对深化改革的有力确认。这也是 未来"十五五"规划的重要政策方向，通过改革提高全要素增长率，打开经济潜在增长空间。 风险提示 对政策的理解存在偏差，增量政策超预期。 宏观经济报告 新型政策性金融工具已于 9 月底如期落地，符合市场预期。如果年内能够出台超预期的增量政策，将成为引发市场风 格切换的重要导火索。 ...