Workflow
icon
Search documents
医保谈判结果公布在即,关注 ASH 大会
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-29 14:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector, indicating a rebound and potential for further growth in the upcoming months [3][6]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is expected to see a rebound after previous adjustments, with significant catalysts anticipated in December and January. The results of the national medical insurance negotiations will be released in early December, which may impact the inclusion of domestic innovative drugs in the insurance catalog [3][14]. - The upcoming American Society of Hematology (ASH) conference from December 6-9 is highlighted as a key event, with multiple differentiated hematology products expected to present new data [3][4][42]. - The CXO sector shows a continuous upward trend, supported by the rapid growth of new orders and backlog, ensuring performance release in the next 1-2 years [4][53]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on dual/multi-target drugs for various cancers and chronic diseases, as well as opportunities in ADCs and small nucleic acid therapies [6][15]. - The report notes that the innovative drug financing data is showing marginal improvement, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [6][15]. Biologics - The report mentions positive preliminary results from the Phase II clinical trial of amycretin for Type 2 diabetes, suggesting continued monitoring of its clinical progress [4][46]. Medical Devices - The report highlights the emergence of innovative domestic medical devices, with expectations for profit margins to stabilize and improve as new products are approved [5]. Traditional Chinese Medicine & Pharmacies - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong brand power and good inventory management, such as China Resources Sanjiu and Jichuan Pharmaceutical, due to rising flu incidence [5]. Medical Services and Consumer Healthcare - The report discusses a collaboration between a traditional Chinese medicine group and a local health bureau to enhance the capabilities of grassroots medical services through technology [5]. Key Investment Targets - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical, and others in the innovative drug and medical device sectors [7].
公募基础设施REITs周报-20251129
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-29 13:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This report is a weekly report on public - offering infrastructure REITs from November 24, 2025, to November 28, 2025, presenting secondary - market price - volume performance, valuation, market correlation statistics, and primary - market tracking of REITs [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary - Market Price - Volume Performance - The report details the performance of various REITs, including listing date, issue price, trading volume, turnover rate, return on the listing day, return since listing, return this week, return last week, and return since the beginning of this year. For example, the red - clay innovation Yantian Port REIT had an issue price of 2.3 yuan on June 21, 2021, with a listing - day return of 2.91% and a return since listing of 19.98%. Its trading volume this week was 0.09 (in 100 million shares), and the turnover rate was 1.24% [9] 3.2 Secondary - Market Valuation Situation - The report compares indicators such as P/FFO, P/NAV, current quantile, IRR, PV multiplier, and cash distribution rate of different REITs. For instance, the red - clay innovation Yantian Port REIT has a P/FFO of 19.15, a P/NAV of 1.06, and a current quantile of 48.00% [20] 3.3 Market Correlation Statistics - The report shows the correlation coefficients between REITs and various asset types, including stocks, convertible bonds, pure bonds, and commodities. For example, the correlation coefficient between REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.20, and that between energy - type REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.04 [27] 3.4 Primary - Market Tracking - The report lists the status of multiple REIT projects in the primary market, including project nature, project type, stage, acceptance date, original equity holder, underlying project, and project valuation. For example, the Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT is a property - type project in the warehousing and logistics industry. It has passed the review, and its acceptance date was June 30, 2025. The project is valued at 22.49 billion yuan [29]
波司登(03998):H1 经营符合预期,期待旺季销售提速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-28 15:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB for the first half of FY2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.189 billion RMB, up 5.3%, aligning with expectations [2]. - The company's down jacket business saw revenue of 6.568 billion RMB, growing 8.3% year-on-year, driven by steady growth in both direct and franchise channels [3]. - The gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, although the down jacket gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% due to a higher proportion of lower-margin distribution channels [4]. - The company is optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, supported by successful new product launches and effective inventory management [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company achieved a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB in the first half of FY2026, with a net profit of 1.189 billion RMB, reflecting a 1.4% and 5.3% increase respectively [2]. Operational Analysis - The down jacket segment generated 6.568 billion RMB in revenue, with the main brand, Bosideng, contributing 5.719 billion RMB, showing an 8.3% increase [3]. - The online channel revenue for down jackets was 1.383 billion RMB, up 2.4%, while offline direct and franchise channels reported revenues of 2.411 billion RMB and 3.701 billion RMB, growing 6.6% and 7.9% respectively [3]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin increased slightly to 50.0%, with effective cost control reflected in the marketing management expense ratio [4]. - Inventory turnover days decreased by 11 days compared to the previous year, indicating improved inventory management [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.920 billion RMB, 4.322 billion RMB, and 4.739 billion RMB for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [5].
北新建材(000786):拟重启远大洪雨并购,夯实防水翼
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-27 07:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The acquisition of 80% stakes in two companies enhances the company's market share in the waterproofing materials sector, particularly in North China. The acquisition price has been adjusted downwards due to the decline in the waterproofing industry's market conditions compared to 2022 [3][4]. - The company anticipates an increase in production capacity for various waterproofing materials, including 12 million square meters of asphalt waterproofing membranes, 4 million square meters of polymer waterproofing membranes, and 159,000 tons of waterproof coatings [3]. - The financial performance for the first half of 2025 shows a revenue of approximately 2.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 6%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, also reflecting a 6% increase [3]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The total price for acquiring 80% stakes in Tangshan Yuanda Hongyu Waterproof Materials Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Yuanda Hongyu Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is 418 million yuan. The adjusted acquisition price reflects the current market conditions in the waterproofing industry [2][4]. - The expected revenue and net profit for the Tangshan entity in 2024 are 820 million yuan and 80 million yuan, respectively, with a net profit margin of approximately 9.8% [4]. - The expected revenue and net profit for the Suzhou entity in 2024 are 199 million yuan and 2 million yuan, respectively, with a net profit growth of 40.5% [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.99 billion yuan, 27.88 billion yuan, and 29.22 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 7%, and 5% respectively. The projected net profits for the same period are 3.15 billion yuan, 3.66 billion yuan, and 4.01 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% respectively [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on November 26 are projected to be 13, 11, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].
债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告:供给端减产加速钢材去库:2025年11月第3周
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-26 15:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side production cuts are accelerating the destocking of steel products, while inflation shows signs of the decline in pork prices slowing down. [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking 1.1 Production: Limited Increment in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has limited increment. On November 25, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 79.3 tons, down 1.3% from November 18. On November 18, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 186 tons, up 3.3% from November 11. [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate has been declining this month. On November 21, the national blast furnace operating rate was 82.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 14; the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from November 14. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 91.2% compared to November 14. [4][15] - The tire operating rate has declined. On November 20, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from November 13; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 71.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from November 13. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to decline. [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has improved month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 243,000 square meters, up 11.9% from the same period in October, but down 30.4% from the same period last November, 20.1% from the same period in 2023, and 35.9% from the same period in 2022. [4][23] - The retail sales of the auto market have improved week by week. In November, retail sales were down 11% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 8% year - on - year. [4][27] - Steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. On November 25, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by + 0.6%, - 0.3%, + 1.5%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to November 18. [4][32] - Cement prices remained stable. On November 25, the national cement price index remained flat compared to November 18. Cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell by 0.7%. [4][33] - Glass prices fluctuated strongly. On November 26, the active glass futures contract price was 1,026 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from November 19. [4][38] - The container shipping freight index showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. On November 21, the CCFI index rose 2.6% compared to November 14, while the SCFI index fell 4.0%. [4][40] 2. Inflation: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down 2.1 CPI: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down - The decline in pork prices slowed down. On November 26, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.9 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from November 19. [4][46] - The agricultural product price index rose moderately. On November 26, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.6% compared to November 18. By variety, fruits (+ 2.8%) > vegetables (+ 1.4%) > mutton (+ 1.3%) > pork (- 0.3%) > eggs (- 0.5%) > chicken (- 0.7%) > beef (- 1.0%). [4][53] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Declined Weakly - Oil prices declined weakly. On November 25, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 63.2 and 58.0 dollars/barrel respectively, down 0.6% and 4.6% from November 18. [4][56] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On November 25, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.5% and 1.0% respectively compared to November 18. [4][61] - The decline of the domestic commodity index narrowed month - on - month. On November 25, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.6% compared to November 18, and the CRB index fell 0.7%. [4][61] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in November. The prices of steam coal and wire rod rose month - on - month, while other industrial product prices fell. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged, except for cement and glass. [63]
“数”看期货:近一周卖方策略一致观点-20251125
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-25 09:37
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -5.80%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest decline of -2.72% [3][11] - Average trading volumes for the current, next, and quarterly contracts increased across all contracts, with the SSE 50 showing the largest increase of 18.96% and the CSI 500 the smallest at 13.60% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts as of last Friday were -4.13%, -10.17%, -12.27%, and -1.89% for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a deepening of the basis for IF and IH while IC and IM saw a narrowing [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts compared to the next contracts were at the 96.70%, 90.20%, 89.30%, and 89.10% percentiles for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a historical distribution skewed to the right [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices, as the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts and Market Expectations - The estimated impacts on index points for the next year from the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 77.00, 82.49, 68.09, and 64.38 respectively [4][12] - Following the end of the main dividend distribution period, the influence of dividends on the four major index futures contracts is minimal, with a notable increase in market risk aversion reflected in the declines of all four contracts [4][12] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among seven brokerages indicates that the A-share market will continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, but there is potential for upward movement in the medium term [5][36] - The AI industry chain, upstream resource sectors, and high-dividend assets are viewed positively, benefiting from industry trends, improved supply-demand dynamics, and policy support [5][36]
资金跟踪系列之二十一:杠杆资金继续净卖出,机构ETF明显回流
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 11:27
宏观流动性: 上周美元指数回升,中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落,通胀预期回落。离岸美元流动 性有所收紧,国内银行间资金面均衡,期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性: 市场交易热度有所回落,除科创 50 外,其余主要指数的波动率回升。行业上,化工、纺服、房地产、消费者服务、商 贸零售、轻工等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上,电新、电子的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研: 电子、医药、电新、机械、有色等板块调研热度居前,石油石化、房地产、非银等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测: 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测同时被上调。行业上,金融地产、机械、军工、农林牧渔、钢铁等板块 25/26 年净利润预 测均被上调。指数上,中证 500、沪深 300 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调,创业板指、上证 50 则分别被下调/上调。 风格上,小盘成长、中盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被上调,小盘价值均被下调,中盘成长分别被上调/下调, 大盘成长/价值则分别被下调/上调。 北上活跃度回落,整体继续大幅净卖出 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径, ...
量化观市:当前微盘股的风控指标有什么变化?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 11:02
摘要 过去一周,国内主要市场指数下跌,其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为-2.7%、-3.73%、- 5.77%和-5.79%。 从中期来看,根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号,11 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看,模型对 11 月份经 济增长层面信号强度为 0%;而货币流动性层面信号强度为 50%。择时策略 2025 年年初至今收益率为 13.55%,同期 Wind 全 A 收益率为 25.61%。 过去一周市场宽幅波动,在海外流动性收紧下,价值因子表现良好。且随着市场波动放大,量价类因子表现量良好。 且我们可观察到,在市场弱势情况下,对于有潜在业绩支撑的板块更加偏好,导致一致预期因子表现良好。展望未来 一周,在宏观不确定仍较高的情况下,我们预估价值和量价类因子表现能有所延续。 风险提示 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成,在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 微盘股指标监控:综合来看,当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收正,茅指数为负斜率,当前轮动模型发出切 换至微盘股指数信号,中期配置微盘股指数的预期能有 ...
名创优品(09896):公司点评:国内同店加速改善,海外增长质量提升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 06:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 5.797 billion RMB, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 767 million RMB, up 11.7% year-over-year [2]. - The domestic and overseas segments showed strong growth, with domestic revenue from Miniso at 2.909 billion RMB (+19.3%), overseas Miniso at 2.312 billion RMB (+27.7%), and TOPTOY at 575 million RMB (+111.4%) [3]. - The company is actively expanding its store network, reaching a total of 4,407 stores in China, with significant growth in first, second, and third-tier cities [3]. - The overseas segment has also seen a boost, with North America exceeding same-store growth expectations and a total of 3,424 overseas stores [3]. - TOPTOY's revenue growth is attributed to rapid store expansion and increased sales of proprietary IP products, with a total of 307 stores as of Q3 [4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.964 billion RMB, 3.419 billion RMB, and 4.208 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15, 13, and 11 times, respectively [5]. - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 25.12%, 23.03%, and 21.77% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [10]. - The adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at 8.96%, 15.35%, and 23.07% for the same years [10].
债市微观结构跟踪:交易情绪“中性”震荡
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-23 15:22
那就,。 本期微观交易温度计读数回落至 50% 本期交易热度类指标分位值多回落,1/10Y、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、3 个百分点,全市场换手率分位 值回落 12 个百分点、机构杠杆分位值下降 6 个百分点,仅 TL/T 多空比分位值回升 27 个百分点。上市公司理财买入 量、股债比价分位值回落幅度也较大,分别为 35、29 个百分点。除此外,仅基金分歧度、基金-农商买入量、政策利 差、商品比价等少数指标分位值不同程度回升。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、基金超长债买入量。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比仍为 35% 20 个微观指标中,位于过热区间的指标数量仍为至 7 个(占比 35%)、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 5 个(占比 25%)、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 8 个(占比 40%)。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是,全市场化换手率、上市公司理财 买入量均由中性区间回落至偏冷区间,基金-农商买入量则由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 交易热度类指标多回落 ①交易热度中,1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、12、6、 ...