Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery in the near term [2][3][13]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. The overall production stability in the copper industry is noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14]. - Aluminum prices saw a 1.75% increase to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in aluminum processing rates, indicating a shift towards the off-peak season [3][15]. - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16]. - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][32][34]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Copper inventory decreased by 2.24% week-on-week, while total inventory increased by 4.97% year-on-year [2][14]. - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises rose to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The overall aluminum processing rate recorded a decline to 59.4% [3][15]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity remains high, but the operating rate decreased by 1.66% to 77.31% [3][15]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a notable rise in SPDR gold holdings remaining stable at 1,086.53 tons [4][16]. - The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold price fluctuations, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments [4][16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose to 748,700 CNY per ton, reflecting a strong demand outlook. The report notes a 7% year-on-year increase in rare earth permanent magnet exports [5][32][34]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector is poised for growth, driven by easing export restrictions and increased global demand [5][32][34]. Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, with strategic reserves being a focus in the U.S. market, indicating a potential for continued price support [5][36]. Tin - Tin prices showed a slight decrease of 0.03%, but the report maintains a positive long-term outlook due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [5][37]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 7.15% to 171,000 CNY per ton, with production slightly declining. The report highlights a robust demand outlook despite recent price fluctuations [5][57]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.8% to 445,000 CNY per ton, with supply constraints expected to support price stability in the near term [5][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" reading continued to rise to 57%, up 3 percentage points from the previous period. Some indicators' positions increased, while others decreased. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% [15][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The micro - trading thermometer reading continued to rise to 57%. The positions of institutional leverage, policy spread, bond fund profit - taking pressure, stock - bond ratio, and overall market turnover rate increased by 48, 18, 18, 16, and 12 percentage points respectively. The TL/T long - short ratio and commodity ratio positions also rose by 11 percentage points. However, the position values of fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio, and listed company wealth management buying volume decreased by 33, 18, and 15 percentage points respectively [3][15]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 7 (35%) were in the neutral range, and 6 (30%) were in the cold range. The long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio and listed company wealth management buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range; institutional leverage and policy spread rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover rate rose from the cold range to the neutral range [4][21]. 3.3. Long - term Treasury Bond Trading Volume Ratio - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range dropped to 0%. The overall market turnover rate position increased by 12 percentage points, rising from the cold range to the neutral range; institutional leverage position increased by 48 percentage points, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio position decreased by 18 percentage points, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range [6][22]. 3.4. Bond Fund Profit - taking Pressure - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 13%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 63%. The listed company wealth management buying volume position decreased by 15 percentage points to 58%, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume position decreased by 33 percentage points to 31%, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range [7][26]. 3.5. Policy Spread - The yield of 3 - year treasury bonds continued to decline, the policy spread narrowed by 2bp to 0bp, and the position value rose slightly by 18 percentage points to 76%, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned development spread remained the same as the previous period, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp, and the average spread of the three widened slightly by 1bp to 17bp. Its position value decreased by 4 percentage points to 61%, still in the neutral range [8][32]. 3.6. Stock - Bond Ratio - Among the ratio indicators, the proportion of indicators in the cold range remained at 75%, and the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%. The position values of stock - bond, commodity, and real estate ratios increased by 16, 11, and 18 percentage points to 57%, 56%, and 51% respectively, all still in the neutral range [9][34].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on themes of intelligence and overseas expansion, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies like BYD and Geely Automobile, as well as in the intelligent and robotics sectors such as Li Auto-W and Xpeng Motors-W [3][16]. Core Insights - Tesla is shifting its focus from traditional vehicle production to AI and robotics, planning to stop the production of Model S and Model X to allocate resources for the Optimus humanoid robot, with a target production capacity of 1 million units annually by 2026 [1][13]. - Li Auto is restructuring its R&D department to enhance its humanoid robot development, indicating a strong commitment to AI competition and innovation in robotics [2][14]. - The passenger car market has shown weak sales performance in early 2026, but there is optimism for recovery in Q1 2026 due to anticipated policy support and seasonal demand [2][15]. Industry Data Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08%, while the automotive index decreased by 5.08%, ranking 29th among 31 sectors [4][17]. - In the second week of January 2026, wholesale passenger car sales were 359,000 units, down 28% year-on-year, with a significant increase in new energy vehicle penetration to 50% [5][26]. - In December 2025, the total wholesale passenger car sales were 2.787 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 3.4% [6][34]. Industry Dynamics - Tesla's transition to focus on AI and robotics is part of a broader trend in the automotive industry, with companies like Xpeng and Li Auto also investing heavily in intelligent driving and robotics [1][3][66]. - The report highlights the importance of new energy vehicle exports, which have shown a consistent growth rate of over 20% year-on-year, indicating a long-term trend towards international markets [3][15]. - The introduction of mandatory standards for advanced driver assistance systems in China marks a significant regulatory shift that will impact the automotive landscape [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 30, the weighted average transaction terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.26 years and 2.43 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average transaction terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.00 years, 3.52 years, and 2.05 years respectively, with secondary capital bonds at a relatively high historical level. The durations of other financial bonds, such as securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds, were 1.70 years, 2.09 years, 3.26 years, and 1.44 years respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds was slightly shorter than the previous week, and the historical quantile of the duration of leasing company bonds was at a relatively high historical level [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index has increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024 and then declining, the index rose this week compared to last week and is currently at the 64% level since March 2021 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 All - Variety Term Overview - The weighted average transaction terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.26 years and 2.43 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average transaction terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.00 years, 3.52 years, and 2.05 years respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.70 years, 2.09 years, 3.26 years, and 1.44 years respectively [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index increased this week compared to last week and is currently at the 64% level since March 2021 [11]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average transaction term of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.26 years. The duration of Shaanxi provincial - level urban investment bonds extended to 9.16 years, while the transaction duration of Hebei provincial - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.19 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of prefecture - level cities in Hunan, district - level counties in Jiangsu, and district - level counties in Beijing have exceeded 90%, and the duration of prefecture - level cities in Anhui is approaching the highest since 2021 [3][15]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average transaction term of industrial bonds remained the same as last week, generally around 2.43 years. The transaction duration of the coal industry extended to 2.25 years, and the transaction duration of the public utilities industry shortened to 2.75 years. The transaction durations of the food and beverage and real estate industries are in the neutral historical quantile range, while those of the non - ferrous metals and pharmaceutical and biological industries are at relatively high historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 2.05 years, at the 53.3% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds shortened to 4.00 years, at the 80.2% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.52 years, at the 56.9% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][24]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average transaction term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical quantiles of 65.4%, 46.6%, 60.4%, and 86.9% respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds was slightly shorter than last week [3][27].

一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周信用风格模拟组合收益普遍下滑，部分利率风格组合表现有所改善。利率风格组合中，城投超长型、城投久期策 略收益领先，周度读数分别为 0.19%、0.18%；信用风格组合中，城投超长型、城投久期策略收益相对靠前，分别达 到 0.15%、0.13%。 从重仓券种看，利率、城投长债重仓策略具有一定优势。信用风格存单重仓组合周度收益均值下行 5.2bp 至 0.06%； 城投重仓组合平均收益回落 7.4bp 至 0.1%，较对应利率风格组合均值落后约 8bp，其中，久期策略、哑铃型策略表 现占优，收益有所增厚；二级资本债重仓组合收益均值降低 18.7bp 至-0.01%，3-4 年二级债成分均对组合收益有小 幅负贡献，而 10 年二级债成分成为更大拖累项，混合哑铃型策略收益降至-0.07%；超长债重仓策略收益均值下行近 30bp，城投、产业及二级超长型策略收益分别为 0.15%、0.04%和-0.2%。 收益来源方面，城投长债重仓组合 60%以上收益来自资本利得。模拟组合票息持续下行，目前城投、二级超长型策略 年化收益距离 2025 年以来最低点仍在 33.5bp、41.1bp 的较高水平，二永 ...

短期内，可直接观察同一主体发行的、剩余期限极为接近（通常相差在 0.5 年以内）的新券和老券，计算并追踪其收 益率差值的动态变化。该利差能更及时地反映市场对增值税补偿的定价，从而避免了对整条曲线进行估值调整的诸多 强假设。 对于普通非金信用债，剔除增值税影响后的信用利差等于基于中债收益率曲线计算的信用利差+同期限国债/国开债新 老券利差；而对于二永债等金融债券，剔除增值税影响后的信用利差等于基于中债收益率曲线计算的信用利差+同期 限国债/国开债新老券利差-同期限金融债新老券利差。 同样需要注意的是，新老券利差还原法亦存在局限。首先，新券通常流动性优于老券，其收益率本就包含流动性折价， 这与增值税补偿要求的收益率上行力量相反。因此，观测到的利差是两者净效应的结果，可能低估了真实的税收补偿 要求。其次，对二永债等信用债新发券，可比的配对券样本相对稀缺，部分期限、等级信用债利差难以靠该方法还原。 总的来看，新老券利差还原法更适用于捕捉短期交易机会、监控市场情绪。如若评估债券资产长期配置价值，或进行 历史回溯，则税负补偿倒推法亦有使用空间。 由于信用利差通常以"信用债收益率减同期限国开债/国债收益率"计算，当基准利率 ...

风险提示 证券板块 超 20 家上市券商发布业绩预告或业绩快报，经纪、自营业务是主要驱动力。25Q4 利润增速以环比下降为主，主要是 因为 Q4 投资收益率下降，但多数公司实现同比高速增长，整体符合预期，券商板块高业绩增速有望支撑补涨。 证监会发布《关于修改〈《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》第九条、第十条、第十一条、第十三条、第四十条、第五 十七条、第六十条有关规定的适用意见——证券期货法律适用意见第 18 号〉的决定（征求意见稿）》，并公开征求意 见。战略投资者类型扩围，修订稿明确全国社保基金、基本养老保险基金、企业（职业）年金基金、商业保险资金、 公募基金、银行理财等机构投资者可以作为战略投资者；明确持股比例与锁定约束，修订稿强调战略投资者本次认购 上市公司股份原则上不低于 5%；在长期、较大比例持股和提名董事参与公司治理基础上，明确其需导入战略资源、 改善治理或资源整合，同时强化锁定与合规，不得通过代持、绕道减持等方式规避最低持股比例与锁定期要求。核心 在于引导"耐心资本"从财务投资转向积极股东，是构建"长钱长投"市场生态的关键一环。 投资建议：建议关注三条主线：（1）强烈推荐估值及业绩错配程度较大的优 ...

" " 1 月利率呈先上后下走势，年初前两周，债券表现偏弱，10 年国债利率最高上行至 1.9%附近，主要受到以下因素影 响：供给担忧加剧、降息预期被打压、权益冲高形成跷跷板效应，商品强势加剧通胀担忧。而后中下旬，随着央行流 动性投放充裕，市场对供给担忧逐渐缓和，再加上监管层对权益市场主动降温，配置盘较积极，交易盘情绪在充分降 温后回暖（情绪指标一度回落至约 40%的低位，中长债基久期水平降至近三年的低分位），市场迎来一轮修复窗口。经 历 1 月多空博弈后，市场较去年底出现了一些新变化。 1 月物价不仅加速上行，且覆盖面扩大，内需相关品种亦跟随回升，价格变动由原材料向终端传导，对 1 月 PPI 向上 收敛幅度及后续通胀预期都有提振。PPI 在 1 月的环比增幅或落在 0.15%到 0.25%之间，对应同比位于-1.53%至-1.43% 范围，同比降幅有望加速收窄。1 月的变化接近我们此前年度预测中的乐观场景，在此前的中性预测中，PPI 预计在 三季度末附近回升至零，而在乐观情境下，PPI 回升至零的时点可能提前至第二季度末至第三季度初。 若 PPI 加快向上回归这一边际变化延续，对企业盈利预期、乃至更进一步 ...

新房方面，本周（1.24-1.30）景气度下行趋缓，47 城新房成交量环比回升 16.6%，较去年农历同期下降 17.1%，降幅 较上周收窄。二手房方面，本周（1.24-1.30）景气度底部企稳，春节临近 22 城二手房成交量季节性回落，环比增速 -5.5%；较去年农历同期下降 16.2%。往前看，随着春节临近房地产市场的热度将季节性回落，"金三银四"将成为检 验房地产市场能否实现止跌回稳的关键窗口。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 图表2：春节临近，二手房成交面积季节性回落 往前看，随着春节临近房地产市场的热度将季节性回落，春节过后"金三银四"开启，预计房企将加大优质供给的推 盘力度，带动新房销量回升，二手房销量受需求"跷跷板"影响或出现小幅回落。从房地产市场的症结看，新房的关 键是"量"的企稳，取决于优质供给的释放节奏；二手房的关键是"价"的企稳，由于从估值角度看核心城市房价接 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 2 新房方面，本周（1.24-1.30）景气度下行趋缓，47 城新房成交量环比回升 16.6%， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in China's smartphone sales, projecting approximately 21 million units sold in December 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 20% [12] - Major smartphone brands such as Huawei, OPPO, Honor, vivo, and Apple hold market shares of approximately 20%, 17%, 14%, 14%, and 13% respectively, with Huawei's Mate X6 being the top-selling model [12][18] - The domestic PC market shows a mixed performance, with desktop sales increasing by about 9% to approximately 1.92 million units, while laptop sales decreased by about 9% to around 2.15 million units [19] Summary by Sections Overseas Market Review - The report notes the ongoing rise in activity for overseas AI-related stocks, with companies like Meta, Apple, and Broadcom showing positive weekly performance [6] Consumer Electronics Dynamics - The report emphasizes the severe decline in the domestic smartphone market, with Huawei leading in market share and specific models like Mate X6 and Mate X7 performing well [12][18] - The report also indicates a downturn in laptop sales while desktop sales have shown some recovery [19]