Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the durable consumer goods industry [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a long-term consumer bull market driven by new consumption trends, with four main themes expected to lead the way: AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy [1][8] - Historical cycles indicate that the A-share market exhibits 3-4 year cyclical fluctuations, with technology, cyclical consumption, and manufacturing rotating sequentially [1] - The report draws parallels between the upcoming "anti-involution" reforms starting in July 2025 and the "supply-side" reforms initiated in October 2015, suggesting similar transmission paths despite differing contexts [1] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Outlook for 2026 - The report highlights that the consumer bull market led by new consumption will differ from the 2016-2019 period, focusing on AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy as key growth areas [8] - AI+ consumption is expected to be a major opportunity throughout 2026, with significant advancements in technology and consumer engagement [12] - The overseas expansion of brands is seen as a critical growth driver, particularly as urbanization rates plateau and the focus shifts to international markets [23] - Emotional value consumption is projected to grow significantly, driven by changing demographics and economic conditions, with sectors like pet care and collectibles gaining traction [28] - The silver economy is anticipated to reach a market size of 71 trillion yuan by 2023, with substantial growth expected as the aging population increases [40] 2. Sector Performance Tracking - The report tracks various sectors, indicating a mixed outlook: - Trend toys are showing upward momentum, with companies like Pop Mart leading the market [43] - The new tobacco sector is expected to benefit from regulatory tightening, favoring compliant manufacturers [45] - The home goods sector is experiencing pressure from weak real estate transactions, but there are signs of stabilization [47] - The paper and packaging sector is seeing price fluctuations, with expectations of recovery as supply tightens [49] - The pet food market is evolving, with a shift towards premium products and increased focus on health and wellness [31] 3. Key Data and Trends - The report provides insights into key data trends, such as the significant growth in the 3D printing market, which is projected to reach $24.61 billion by 2024 [17] - The export of 3D printers from China has seen substantial increases, with a year-on-year growth of 136.2% in export value [25] - The emotional value market is expected to continue expanding, with pet care and collectibles being highlighted as key areas of growth [28]

Group 1: Market Liquidity and A-Share Performance - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct catalyst for the recent rise in A-shares, with margin trading balances increasing by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume across the A-share market [3][13][22] - Historical data shows that similar situations, where the A-share market rose by nearly 10% over 16 trading days with trading volume expanding by over 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, predominantly at the beginning of the year [3][18][22] - The recent surge in the commercial aerospace index has led to a significant increase in turnover rates and trading volume proportions, indicating a potential structural overheating in the market [3][22] Group 2: AI Impact on Employment and Economic Policy - The U.S. job market continues to face pressure, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs for October and November [4][26][33] - The adoption of AI by large U.S. companies has significantly suppressed employment growth, particularly in the information, finance, and professional services sectors, which have collectively lost 344,000 jobs over the past three years [4][26][33] - The Federal Reserve's extended rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit commodity markets, as inflation concerns related to AI investments are easing [4][40][41] Group 3: Domestic Economic Recovery and Policy Optimization - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial enterprises in December showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a shift from price drag to price support for corporate revenues [5][56] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also risen, with the core CPI maintaining its highest level in five years, reflecting a smoother transmission of prices from enterprises to consumers [5][56] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to enhance corporate profitability, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition [5][62] Group 4: Rebalancing and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for A-shares, driven by improved liquidity and favorable domestic and international economic conditions [6][63] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors benefiting from the recovery of domestic manufacturing and consumer spending [6][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in sectors such as aviation, duty-free, and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer income and tourism recovery [6][63]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The logistics sector is seeing price increases due to a reduction in low-cost deliveries, benefiting leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express [2] - The shipping market is experiencing a stable demand with a potential increase in oil transportation due to Venezuelan oil exports, which may positively impact the oil shipping market [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply optimization and rising ticket prices, with recommendations for China Southern Airlines and Air China [3] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index remained flat during the week of January 3-9, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.8%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [1][12] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The shipping market is stabilizing with a good supply-demand relationship, and oil shipping is expected to rise due to the potential for Venezuelan oil to shift from black market to compliant market [20] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1194.89 points, up 4.2% week-on-week but down 22.8% year-on-year [21] - The domestic trade container freight index (PDCI) was 1337 points, down 0.4% week-on-week and down 1.0% year-on-year [28] Aviation and Airports - In November 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with domestic routes up 5% and international routes up 19% [59] - The average daily flights in the week of January 3-9, 2026, were 14,725, a slight increase of 0.28% year-on-year [3] Rail and Road - In November 2025, national railway passenger volume was 331 million, up 8.94% year-on-year, while freight volume was 46 million tons, up 1.16% year-on-year [83] - The national highway freight volume was 3.876 billion tons, up 3.57% year-on-year, but the number of trucks on highways decreased by 14.86% week-on-week [89]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of significant growth driven by AI demand and capital expenditures in 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth prospects for the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI demand, with TSMC expected to see robust performance in Q1 2026 and beyond [1]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in prices for advanced processes from TSMC, with a projected price increase of 3% to 10% from 2026 to 2029 [1]. - The global semiconductor market is expected to approach $1 trillion in annual sales by 2026, with significant contributions from major cloud service providers [1]. - The demand for storage chips is forecasted to remain strong, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices expected to increase significantly in Q1 2026 [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving demand for PCB and core computing hardware, with many companies in the AI-PCB sector experiencing strong orders and production expansion [4][27]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 is projected at NT$335 billion, marking a 20.4% year-on-year increase [1]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a significant increase in sales, with November 2025 sales reaching $75.3 billion, a 29.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - Major cloud service providers are expected to invest $600 billion in AI infrastructure by 2026 [1]. AI and PCB Sector - The AI-PCB sector is experiencing strong demand, with companies reporting full production and sales [4]. - The report notes that the demand for AI-related PCBs is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of AI applications [4][27]. Storage and Memory - The report predicts a strong upward trend in memory prices, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by 18-23% in Q4 2025 [20][23]. - The demand for storage solutions is expected to increase due to the expansion of data centers and consumer electronics [23][37]. Equipment and Materials - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to grow, with Q2 2025 global semiconductor equipment shipments expected to reach $33.07 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase [25]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic production capabilities in the semiconductor materials sector, particularly in light of export controls [24][26]. Company-Specific Insights - Companies like Micron and AI-related firms are expected to benefit from strong demand and production expansion [1][27]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong order elasticity and those involved in advanced process technologies [26][27].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [26] Core Insights - The current space market is rapidly developing, with a focus on large low-orbit satellite constellations and space computing constellations. However, due to limited rocket resources, the actual number of satellites in orbit by December 2025 is expected to be lower than anticipated, with only 136 GW satellites and 108 Qianfan satellites [2][11] - Elon Musk announced plans to expand the Starlink V3 satellite scale and establish a space data center, aiming for an annual deployment of 100 GW of data centers within 4-5 years. This could require an astonishing scale of 500,000 to 800,000 satellites [2][12] - The report suggests that the actual capacity for low-orbit satellites may exceed expectations, with potential for up to 175,000 satellites if safety distances are reduced [3][14] - Two main investment strategies are proposed: focusing on leading companies in the space sector and selecting suppliers within the SpaceX supply chain, which is expected to benefit from significant orders as SpaceX prepares for an IPO with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion [4][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Expected Differences in Space Era - The market space is typically estimated based on launch plans, but actual satellite deployment may fall short due to resource constraints [11] - The anticipated number of satellites in orbit is significantly lower than planned, with only 136 GW satellites and 108 Qianfan satellites expected by December 2025 [11][12] Section 2: Low-Orbit Satellite Capacity - The market generally believes that low Earth orbit can accommodate 60,000 to 100,000 satellites, but actual capacity may be much higher, potentially reaching 175,000 satellites under certain conditions [3][14] Section 3: Investment Strategies in the Space Era - Investment Strategy 1: Focus on leading companies in the space sector, which have shown a significant increase in market capitalization from 1.3% to 6.0% since November 2025 [4][18] - Investment Strategy 2: Prioritize the SpaceX supply chain, which is expected to see substantial growth as SpaceX aims for a historic IPO and ambitious production goals [4][21] Section 4: Related Companies - Companies related to the SpaceX supply chain include Xinwei Communication, Yujing Co., Maiwei Co., and Lens Technology. Other sectors include space computing, rockets, satellites, and 3D printing [5][24]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 1.94% to $12,702.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.23% to 101,400 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 6.29% week-on-week, marking six consecutive weeks of accumulation, with total inventory up by 168,100 tons year-on-year [1][12] - The operating rate of the yellow copper rod industry decreased by 0.61% to 46.98%, while the enameled wire industry saw a decline of 0.66% in operating rate to 74.87% [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 2.22% to $3,088.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 6.13% to 24,300 yuan per ton [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.1%, indicating a mixed performance across different aluminum processing sectors [2][13] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 80.51% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.36% to $4,487.9 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 2 tons to 1,067.13 tons [3][14] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, have contributed to a strong and volatile market for gold [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 2.90%, with November exports of rare earth permanent magnets rising by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [4][36] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies and ongoing supply constraints are likely to support future demand and price increases in the rare earth sector [4][36] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 11.5% to 131,800 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 10.9% to 126,900 yuan per ton [4][60] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,500 tons, with a slight increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [4][60] Group 6: Cobalt - The price of cobalt in the Jiangxi market rose by 1.1% to 460,000 yuan per ton, with cobalt intermediate prices also showing slight increases [5][63] - The overall cobalt market remains strong, with supply tightness expected to continue, supporting price stability [5][63] Group 7: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 1.8% to $17,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 4.3% to 138,000 yuan per ton [5][64] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, leading to price increases [5][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20%, while the proportion in the neutral range increased to 30%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 50%. The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased [14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading continued to decline to 40% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. TL/T long - short ratio, policy spread, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantiles decreased by 54, 42, and 27 percentage points respectively. Real estate price ratio, fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles also declined to varying degrees. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, and the quantiles of indicators such as the whole - market turnover rate and market spread slightly rebounded [14]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 4 (20%), the number in the neutral range increased to 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range remained at 10 (50%). TL/T long - short ratio and policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range; fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range; allocation strength rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range; listed company wealth management buying volume and the whole - market turnover rate rose from the cold range to the neutral range [18]. - The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased. In trading heat, only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio quantiles decreased by 6 and 54 percentage points respectively, driving the average trading heat quantile down by 5 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, driving the average institutional behavior quantile up by 3 percentage points. The market spread quantile increased by 14 percentage points, and the policy spread quantile decreased by 42 percentage points, driving the average spread quantile down by 14 percentage points. The real estate price ratio quantile decreased by 16 percentage points, driving the average price ratio quantile down by 2 percentage points [18]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio dropped to the cold range - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 33%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile decreased by 54 percentage points, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The whole - market turnover rate quantile rebounded by 16 percentage points, rising from the cold range to the neutral range [19]. 3.2.2. Allocation strength rebounded - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%, and the proportion in the cold range decreased to 50%. The fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile decreased by 14 percentage points, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points to 84% and 56% respectively, with the former rising to the over - heated range and the latter to the neutral range [25]. 3.2.3. Policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range - The yield of 3 - year Treasury bonds rose 8bp, and the policy spread widened 8bp to 6bp. The corresponding quantile continued to decline 42 percentage points to 34%, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned bank spread narrowed by 9bp and 2bp to 52bp and - 1bp respectively, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened 2bp to 0bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed 3bp to 17bp, and its quantile rebounded 14 percentage points to 60%, remaining in the neutral range [30]. 3.2.4. Real estate price ratio quantile continued to decline - The proportion of price ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity price ratio quantiles rebounded by 5 and 1 percentage points respectively, while the real estate price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 16 percentage points [33].

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周，受节假日因素影响，聊天助手类应用活跃度普遍回落，其中 Kimi 降幅较为显著。行业动态方面，数据与 生态整合加速，微软收购 Osmos 优化 Fabric 平台数据流程，Snowflake 以 10 亿美元收购 Observe 布局 AI 可观 测性；谷歌 Gmail 全面集成 Gemini3 模型重塑邮件体验；阿里高德发布世界模型 FantasyWorld，登顶 WorldScore 榜单并落地低成本 3D 街景生成功能。 - 2025 年 11 月，中国智能手机销量达到约 2600 万台，同比上升约 10%。苹果、小米、华为、荣耀、OPPO 以约 23%、15%、14%、13%、12%的份额排名前五。具体型号方面，苹果 iPhone 17 Pro Max 销量排名第一，iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro 排名第二、第三。11 月国内 PC 市场销量有所回暖，台式机销量约为 152 万台，同比上升约 7%。笔电销量约为 195 万台，同比上升约 4%。 | 海外市场行情 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 37.7% for steel companies, suggesting a neutral to positive outlook for the sector [10][11]. Core Insights - The iron ore prices have increased due to expectations of spring replenishment by port traders, while the reduction of 19 million tons of capacity in Yulin has led to expectations of a reversal in coking coal prices [10][11]. - The domestic hot-rolled coil prices are showing a weak trend, with an average price of 3,306 RMB/ton, up by 16 RMB/ton from December 31 [11]. - The steel industry is experiencing a price increase across the black industrial chain due to raw material inflation, although the steel segment is currently facing a loss of 38.6 RMB per ton [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The report highlights a 3.3% increase in the CITIC Steel Index, which underperformed the market by 0.5% [10]. - The steel industry is at a fundamental bottom, with expectations of price stability in the near term [10]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals Overview Steel - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a slight increase in social inventory to 3.9524 million tons, up by 50,400 tons week-on-week [11]. - The demand for steel is supported by macroeconomic expectations, but actual high-level transactions remain low, leading to a forecast of narrow price adjustments in the coming week [11]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have slightly increased from a recent bottom, with some coal types experiencing price adjustments due to improved auction results [12]. - The supply side remains loose as previously reduced coal mines have resumed production, while demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for steel [12]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have risen, with the average price for 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port reaching 826 RMB/ton, an increase of 24 RMB/ton (+3%) from the previous week [13]. - The report anticipates that the replenishment by steel mills will remain restrained due to weak demand in real estate and infrastructure investments [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in pig farming and poultry [62]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.98% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite [12][14]. - In the pig farming sector, prices are currently stabilizing at a low level, with expectations of further declines due to weak supply and demand dynamics [21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices, particularly for white feather chickens, while yellow feather chickens are showing signs of recovery due to improved demand [32]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy prices are stabilizing after a period of decline [40]. - The planting sector is facing tight supply and demand conditions, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans anticipated due to external uncertainties and domestic policy support [43][44]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with certain seafood prices trending upwards [51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 9, the national average price for commodity pigs is 12.63 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.36%. The average weight of pigs at market is 128.54 kg, showing a slight decrease [20][21]. - The sector is expected to face further price declines due to weak demand and supply conditions, with a focus on reducing production capacity amid ongoing losses [21][22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.64 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04%. The profitability of poultry farming is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement for yellow feather chickens due to better demand [30][32]. Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong is 26.58 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but up 14.62% year-on-year. The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season [40]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, while the industry is still facing significant financial pressure [40]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2250 yuan/ton, with expectations of tight supply conditions leading to potential price increases. The soybean market is also showing upward trends [43][44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at a low point, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in crop yields [44]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are also stable, with notable increases in certain seafood products [51].