1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer has rebounded to 48%, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous period. Most indicator quantiles have risen, with only a few showing a decline [13]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 25%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range has risen to 5 (25%), in the neutral range to 8 (40%), and in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%) [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数转为回升至 48% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has rebounded 8 percentage points to 48%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, and market interest rate quantile have dropped by 8, 2, and 1 percentage points respectively, while others have increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% - **Transaction Heat Indicators**: The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%, with the proportion in the cold range dropping to 0%. The TL/T long - short ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and most other indicator quantiles have slightly rebounded [18]. - **Institutional Behavior Indicators**: The proportions of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remain 25%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The trading - allocation buying volume quantile has increased by 22 percentage points, and the quantiles of money tightness expectation, allocation disk strength, and listed company wealth management buying volume have also slightly rebounded [22]. - **Interest Rate Spread**: The policy interest rate spread has narrowed by 3bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising by 20 percentage points to 54% and moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp to 54bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the Agricultural Development - Guokai spread remains flat. The average of the three spreads remains at 17bp, and its quantile has slightly dropped by 1 percentage point to 59%, still in the neutral range [27]. - **Price Ratio**: The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and in the neutral range has increased to 25%. The commodity price - ratio quantile has rebounded by 16 percentage points to 34%, moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The stock - bond and real - estate price - ratio quantiles have also rebounded by 3 and 14 percentage points respectively [30].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" based on the expectation of an increase exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the derivatives market in managing risks, allocating resources, and serving the real economy, while encouraging the use of derivatives for hedging and risk management activities [3][4]. - The proposed regulatory framework aims to enhance the management and oversight of the derivatives market, covering all aspects from trading to legal responsibilities [2][3]. - Strict regulations are set to prevent market manipulation and other illegal activities, with clear penalties for violations [3]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On January 16, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a draft regulation to promote the healthy development of the derivatives market in line with national policies [1]. Core Content - The draft regulation outlines the scope of application, risk management functions, contract development conditions, trading rules, performance guarantee systems, trader suitability standards, and enhanced monitoring and supervision [2]. Event Commentary - The CSRC supports the steady development of the derivatives market and aims to regulate the entire process of derivatives business, which is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the scale of derivatives business [3][4].

1）台积电资本支出及业绩超预期：A）台积电公布 2025 年 Q4 财务报告，公司当季营收为 337.3 亿美元，同比+25.5%， 环比+1.9%。全面上修业绩增速与毛利率指引，将 2024 至 2029 年 AI 营收 CAGR 从原先的"40%中段"提升至"50%中 高段"。B）2026 年资本支出规模进一步扩大至 520 亿至 560 亿美元。公司管理层强调，约七成至八成资本将投向先 进制程技术，其余用于特殊制程、先进封装等领域，以应对持续旺盛的 AI 芯片需求。全球 AI 算力需求持续旺盛。2） 国产芯片、国产大模型、国产应用携手共进，加速国产链向上：A）首个完全依托国产芯片全程训练的 SOTA 多模态模 型 GLM-Image，开源 24 小时内登顶全球知名 AI 开源社区 Hugging Face Trending，标志国产 AI 模型的端到端自主研 发能力在国际竞争中取得突破。B）DeepSeek 发布新论文，提出 Engram 机制，在等参数、等算力条件下显著提升模型 在知识调用、推理、代码、数学等任务上的表现。同时，DeepSeek 开源相关记忆模块 Engram。我们认为此机制意味 着在 ...

Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share market has shown a "good start" with a cumulative increase of 5.2% in the Wind All A Index, and the average daily trading volume has exceeded 30 trillion yuan[5] - The leading sectors include media, computer, non-ferrous metals, and military industry, with year-to-date gains of 16.0%, 14.0%, 14.0%, and 9.0% respectively, reflecting the current market focus on AI and geopolitical factors[5] Economic Indicators - In December 2025, China's PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the highest monthly increase since 2024, driven by improvements in non-ferrous and technology sector prices[12] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose by 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, influenced by AI-driven demand for electricity[12] Strategic Trends - The two main strategic lines for A-share pricing in 2026 are AI, reflecting the U.S. focus on technology for growth, and "anti-involution," which corresponds to China's push for reform and high-quality development[3] - The "anti-involution" strategy is entering a new phase, emphasizing "quality over price" and a shift in local government performance perspectives[15] Policy Changes - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is a national-level manifestation of the "anti-involution" strategy, aimed at promoting price increases among leading companies while eliminating those relying on low prices[18] - Recent regulatory actions against monopolistic practices in the photovoltaic industry signal a commitment to fair competition and the acceleration of "anti-involution" efforts[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical tensions and slower-than-expected progress in "anti-involution" reforms, which could disrupt market dynamics[4][21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests to pay attention to companies involved in commercial aerospace 3D printing due to the increasing maturity of 3D printing technology and its potential as a final processing solution in the aerospace sector [4]. Core Insights - 3D printing is transitioning from concept to mass production, supported by seven major technological routes that cater to various industry needs. The technology has shown significant cost advantages over traditional manufacturing methods, particularly in the consumer electronics sector [2][19]. - The aerospace industry is poised to benefit from 3D printing due to its ability to facilitate innovative product designs, reduce part counts, and optimize structures for weight reduction, which is critical in aerospace applications [2][4]. - The report highlights the growing application of 3D printing in rocket and satellite manufacturing, with domestic companies increasing their penetration rates in these areas [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Mass Production - 3D printing has evolved through various manufacturing stages, with significant advancements in technology leading to its current state where it can produce high-quality metal parts [13][14]. - The technology's cost advantages are realized not through scale alone but through innovations that lower unit production costs, making it competitive even at larger production volumes [19][21]. 2. 3D Printing as a Solution for Aerospace - The design philosophy has shifted from manufacturing-led to design-led, allowing for significant reductions in the number of parts and enhanced functionality through integrated designs [2][56]. - 3D printing reduces the supply chain complexity and lowers the costs associated with product lifecycle management, making it a viable alternative to traditional manufacturing methods [2][62]. - The technology enables lightweight designs through various structural optimizations, which is essential for aerospace applications [2][68]. 3. Rocket and Satellite Applications - The report notes that 3D printing is being increasingly utilized in the manufacturing of rocket thrust chambers, with domestic companies showing potential for growth in this area [3][4]. - In satellite manufacturing, 3D printing supports lightweight structures and functional integration, with ongoing investments from both domestic and international companies [3][4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Huazhu High-Tech, Yibang Co., and Feiwo Technology are highlighted for their involvement in the aerospace 3D printing sector, indicating strong growth prospects [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, indicating a potential for significant profit growth in the upcoming quarters, particularly in the context of the spring market rally [5]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from an improved operating environment, with comprehensive advantages across various business lines due to the expansion of direct financing and supportive monetary policies [3]. - The social financing scale is projected to reach 35.6 trillion yuan in 2025, with direct financing accounting for 16.7 trillion yuan, representing 46.9% of the total, which is an increase of 7.8 percentage points compared to 2020 [3]. - The monetary policy remains accommodative, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in the social financing stock and an 8.5% increase in the broad money supply (M2) as of December 2025, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - The insurance sector is also expected to benefit from a strengthening pro-cyclical logic, supporting the stabilization of long-term interest rates, which is anticipated to enhance the valuation of insurance stocks [4]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is poised for growth due to the expansion of direct financing and a favorable capital market environment, which will provide ample project reserves for investment banking activities [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on brokers that excel in wealth management, institutional business, and capital intermediation, as well as those leading in investment banking and asset management [5]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see high growth on the liability side and benefit from the spring market rally, with a low profit base in Q1 [5]. - Long-term expectations of a bull market in investments are likely to provide ongoing support for the valuation uplift of insurance stocks [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.21 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.16 billion RMB, up 54.5% year-on-year. The Q4 performance was particularly strong, with revenue of 7.38 billion RMB, reflecting a 46.1% increase, and a net profit of 970 million RMB, up 74.1% year-on-year [2]. - The sustained outperformance in 2025 is attributed to the continuous release of overseas orders since Q2 2023 and the delivery of high-margin domestic orders for 750kV transformers [3]. - The company significantly increased its market share in the domestic power grid bidding, with a 26% year-on-year increase in the State Grid's bidding for power transmission and transformation equipment, and an 82% increase in the company's successful bids [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing investments in the national grid, projected to reach 4 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and from the ongoing shortage of power transformers in overseas markets, particularly North America [4]. - The company is optimistic about new business opportunities in supercapacitors, ultra-high voltage converters, and energy storage systems, with partnerships aimed at expanding its market presence [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.16 billion RMB, 4.31 billion RMB, and 5.76 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 36%, and 34% [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 38, 28, and 21 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Report Summary 1. Core View The report focuses on the supply and trading situation of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics of local government bonds [3][4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - From January 5 - 9, 2026, local government bonds worth 117.66 billion yuan were issued, including 87.43 billion yuan of new special bonds and 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts" [3][10]. - As of January 9, 2026, the issuance of special refinancing bonds in January totaled 132.14 billion yuan, accounting for 46.3% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10]. - The average issuance interest rate of 10 - year local bonds in the latest week was 2.03%, slightly down from the previous week. The coupon average of new 20 - year and 30 - year local bonds was above 2.47%, with the 30 - year long - term bond coupon reaching a 25 - year high. The spread of ultra - long local bonds narrowed marginally, and the spread average of bonds with a term of over 10 years was mostly between 15 - 20bp [3][16]. - In the first week after the new year, local bond issuance was concentrated. Only Shandong and Zhejiang had new bond issuances in January, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in these regions were above 2.3% [3][16]. 2.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The prices of ultra - long local bonds fell significantly. Last week, the weekly declines of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indexes were 0.07% and 0.42% respectively, between those of the same - term treasury bonds and ultra - long credit bonds [4][17]. - The trading volume of Shandong local bonds increased significantly last week, with the weekly trading volume rising from about a hundred before the new year to 201. The trading of local bonds in Sichuan and Jiangsu was also relatively active [4][17]. - In terms of trading returns, the returns of over 20 - year long - term bonds in Shandong and Henan could reach 2.3%, while the average returns of government bonds in other regions were mostly between 1.8% and 2.3% [4][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "24 Chanrong 08" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "24 Hongjian 01" had a relatively high deviation in valuation price. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "24 CCB Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 CEB Bond 02" had a relatively high deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, transportation bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 0.5 years; the transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 1 year. By industry, the bonds in the household appliances industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "24 Chanrong 08", "24 Chanrong 06", etc. in the non - bank financial industry had relatively large deviations in valuation price and high valuation yield deviations. "24 Zhonghua 08" in the comprehensive industry and "26 Lanhua MTN001" in the coal industry also had certain deviations in valuation price [3]. Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - "24 Hongjian 01" in the urban investment industry had a relatively high deviation in valuation price. Many bank - related Tier 2 and perpetual bonds also had positive deviations in valuation price, such as "24 CCB Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", "24 BOC Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", etc. [5]. Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Bonds of state - owned banks such as "24 CCB Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", "24 BOC Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B" had relatively large deviations in valuation price. Some bonds of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks also showed certain deviations [7]. Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Bonds like "25 CEB Bond 02", "25 Huishang Bank 01" had small positive deviations in valuation price and relatively stable valuation yields [8]. Tracking of Bonds with Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds such as "24 Ruimao 02" in the transportation industry and "23 Chanrong 05" in the non - bank financial industry had high transaction yields [9]. Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval [2]. Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, and the proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 0.5 years was the highest [2]. Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and the proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 1 year was the highest [2]. Discounted Transaction Proportion and Transaction Scale of Non - financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The bonds in the household appliances industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of CNY 160 million to CNY 210 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 103.87% to 167.58% [2]. - The demand for high-end sorting machines is strong, leading to rapid growth in performance, supported by ongoing technological research and product iteration [3]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and upgrading technology, with a notable shift towards high-end products, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [3]. - The establishment of the "Malaysia Production and Operations Center" is expected to accelerate the company's globalization strategy and support long-term growth by improving responsiveness to international customers [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 716 million, CNY 1.226 billion, and CNY 1.816 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 76.18%, 71.08%, and 48.16% respectively [5]. - The expected net profit for the same period is CNY 196 million, CNY 375 million, and CNY 580 million, with growth rates of 149.46%, 91.49%, and 54.61% respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 3.3, CNY 6.2, and CNY 9.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].