超长债偏弱运行的三重压力 岁末阶段，收益率曲线整体沿陡峭化路径运行，与我们此前提示一致。在长端整体承压的背景下，超长期限调整幅度 更为突出。这反映出超长端的三重压力正在被广泛预期和集中定价： 供给压力不小，而流动性红利近尾声。从发行、存量与成交期限三个维度进行国际比较可见，当前国内政府债融资和 存量期限结构与美国较为相似。而若与德日对比，尤其是在低利率环境与跨周期资金需求的双重推动下，仍不排除有 进一步向长期限结构演变的空间。然而，与融资期限的长期化相比，超长债流动性的提升可能已接近瓶颈。国内超长 债交易活跃度已显著高于海外成熟市场，进一步扩张空间受限。这些潜在变化方向，对超长债利差构成向上压力。 对融资成本的政策导向从"推动下降"转向"低位运行"，从比价角度制约超长端利率下行空间。央行措辞变化反映 出，社会融资成本或已处于政策合意的低位水平。而过去五年间，30 年期国债利率累计下行约 146BP，与企业贷款利 率 147BP 的降幅基本持平。比价维度看，超长端利率脱离比价关系而下行的动力显著降低。 需求格局存在挑战。当前市场对久期边际偏好减弱、负债端对波动容忍度下降，机构对超长债的承接力弱化。对 30- 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The real estate sector remains a foundational industry for the national economy, contributing 13% to GDP and directly supporting 70 million jobs in China. The potential for new residential construction is significant, estimated at 10 million to 14.9 million units annually, translating to approximately 600 to 900 million square meters of new housing [1][11] - There is a substantial demand for housing updates, with an estimated 700 million square meters needed annually due to a 2% depreciation rate on the existing housing stock of approximately 35 billion square meters [1][11] - The business model in real estate is shifting from a high-cost model to an integrated approach of product-service-operation, emphasizing quality and diverse living services over mere availability [1][11] - The capital market is expected to see an 18.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index in 2025, while the building materials index, excluding the fiberglass sector, is underperforming. Companies with strong alpha attributes in the real estate chain are gaining market recognition despite the overall industry not stabilizing yet [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the fundamental changes in the real estate sector in 2026, as well as the performance of companies like China Jushi, which is planning to grant stock options to employees, indicating a focus on long-term profitability [2][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The real estate sector is crucial for the economy, with a significant contribution to GDP and employment. The potential for new housing construction is substantial, and there is a large demand for housing updates [1][11] - The shift in real estate business models towards integrated services is noted, with a call for decisive policy support to avoid market and policy conflicts [1][11] Market Performance - The building materials index has decreased by 1.25%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass showing notable declines. The overall market sentiment remains cautious [2][16] - Despite the downturn, certain companies in the real estate supply chain are experiencing growth and valuation premiums, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][12] Price Changes in Building Materials - The average price of cement has decreased to 353 CNY per ton, with a national average shipment rate of 40.3%. The market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to weak demand [3][20][21] - The price of float glass has seen a slight decline, with the average price at 1121.29 CNY per ton. Inventory levels are decreasing, but overall market sentiment remains weak [3][28][42] - The fiberglass market is stable, with prices for 2400tex direct yarn remaining steady at around 3535.25 CNY per ton, indicating a balance between supply and demand [3][49][53]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a cautious approach given the current market conditions and ongoing developments in regulations and company strategies [4][30]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has seen a resurgence at the beginning of the year, with a total market capitalization returning to $3 trillion, reflecting a 2.4% increase week-on-week. Bitcoin closed at $89,945 per coin, up 3.0%, while Ethereum closed at $3,124, up 6.8% [1][10]. - The current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is still in the fear zone, with a fear and greed index of 38, indicating a cautious outlook despite recent price increases [1][12]. - Trading volumes have continued to decline, with a 14.4% drop in global cryptocurrency transaction volume week-on-week, marking the sixth consecutive week of decline [1][20]. - Regulatory developments are significant, with the OECD's Crypto Asset Reporting Framework set to take effect in 2027, requiring local crypto service providers to collect user data starting in 2026 [2][26]. - Major companies in the industry are pivoting towards new opportunities, such as Coinbase's plans to expand its trading platform and payment services, and Bitfarms' transition towards AI and high-performance computing [3][28][29]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing week-on-week increases of 3.0% and 6.8%, respectively [1][10]. - The average holding price for Bitcoin is approximately $56,137, indicating that current prices are below the short-term investors' cost [12][15]. - The options market suggests a higher probability of price declines in the coming months, with significant liquidation risks if Bitcoin prices fall [15][20]. Global Policy and Industry News - The OECD's Crypto Asset Reporting Framework will be implemented in 2027, with 48 jurisdictions starting data collection in 2026 [2][26]. - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance a digital asset market structure bill, while the OCC has clarified that national banks can engage in risk-free crypto transactions [2][22]. - The UK plans to regulate crypto assets within its financial services framework by 2027 [2][22]. Company News - Coinbase aims to become the leading financial application globally by expanding its trading platform and payment services [3][28][29]. - Bitfarms is selling its Latin American mining operations to focus on AI and high-performance computing [3][28]. - Tether has invested in Southeast Asian payment company SQRIL to enhance USDT's application in regional payment scenarios [3][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the progress of the U.S. Clarity Act and the potential exclusion of certain crypto treasury companies from MSCI indices [4][30]. - It recommends focusing on crypto mining companies with partnerships with Google and those with substantial power reserves, as well as trading platforms that are exploring opportunities in prediction markets and stock tokenization [4][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric new energy sector, particularly highlighting the potential for strong performance in 2026 [5][10]. Core Insights - The electric new energy sector is experiencing significant catalysts, including the rapid IPO progress of companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and price increases in solar components by Trina Solar, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of space photovoltaics and commercial aerospace as key investment themes, alongside the rising prices in energy storage and lithium batteries [5][10]. - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is on track for a recovery, driven by price increases and improved profitability across the supply chain [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The report highlights the acceleration of IPOs in the commercial aerospace sector, particularly for space photovoltaics, with significant growth potential [6][8]. - Trina Solar has set a new price range for distributed solar components at 0.82-1.06 CNY/W, which is significantly higher than recent market prices, indicating the start of a price recovery [8][9]. - The report notes ongoing efforts to strengthen intellectual property protections in the photovoltaic industry, which supports the trend of profitability recovery [6][9]. Wind Power - In December, new wind turbine tenders in China reached approximately 10.6 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [2][11]. - The report anticipates continued growth in domestic demand for wind power in 2026, with significant overseas orders expected to materialize [12][15]. - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines has remained high, with all power segments achieving over 10% price increases year-on-year [15][16]. Lithium Batteries - January production data indicates a slight decrease in domestic battery production, with a total of 142.54 GWh, down 4.23% month-on-month [22][23]. - Tianqi Lithium has forecasted a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, driven by strong demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [22][23]. - The report highlights the ongoing price recovery in lithium battery materials, with significant growth in sales volumes contributing to improved profitability [22][23]. AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) - The report notes a sustained high market interest in the liquid cooling sector, driven by industry trends and the penetration of leading domestic companies [30][31]. - Investment opportunities are identified in companies that provide comprehensive liquid cooling solutions, particularly as demand for data center infrastructure grows [30][31]. Power Grid - The report mentions the approval of significant high-voltage projects, indicating a rapid acceleration in approvals and tenders for high-voltage equipment [32][33]. - The total tendering amount for the State Grid in 2025 is projected to reach 454.4 billion CNY, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [32][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of transformer technology and the expected supply-demand imbalance in the North American market, presenting opportunities for companies with strong delivery capabilities [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and industries benefiting from self-control [3][26]. Core Insights - The demand for AI is driving significant investments in infrastructure, with major cloud service providers expected to invest a total of $600 billion by 2026, leading to substantial price increases in storage chips [1]. - The report predicts that storage contract prices will continue to rise by 30% to 40% in Q1 2026, with specific increases in DDR5 RDIMM memory prices expected to exceed 40% [1][26]. - The AI hardware supply chain is expected to see strong performance in Q4 and the first half of the following year, driven by robust demand from companies like NVIDIA and major cloud providers [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of AI applications in consumer electronics, particularly in the Apple supply chain and smart glasses, with a focus on enhancing processing power and memory [4]. - AI mobile applications are expected to see significant growth, with various manufacturers launching new products [4]. 2. PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, particularly for copper-clad laminates, driven by the automotive and industrial sectors, as well as AI applications [5]. - The report indicates that the PCB market is maintaining a high level of activity, with price increases expected due to supply constraints [5]. 3. Semiconductor Industry - The storage segment is projected to see a significant upturn, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 18% to 23% in Q4 2025 due to increased demand from cloud service providers [19][22]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is also expected to benefit from rising demand, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in light of export controls [23][25]. 4. AI and Computing Hardware - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI-related hardware, with companies like TSMC expected to ramp up production of advanced nodes to meet this demand [1][26]. - The AI hardware supply chain is projected to experience substantial growth, with companies actively expanding production capacities [1][3]. 5. Market Trends - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains positive, with various sectors showing signs of recovery and growth, particularly in AI and semiconductor-related industries [3][26]. - The report suggests that companies involved in AI hardware and related technologies are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing trends in the market [1][26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing a 5% year-on-year growth in business volume, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The report recommends SF Express for its valuation and operational resilience, while also being optimistic about ZTO Express due to its increasing market share in the low-price segment [2] - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remain stable, and the report recommends Haicheng Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3] - The aviation sector is seeing a significant increase in passenger flow, with over 200 million people traveling during the New Year holiday, and the report recommends China Southern Airlines and Air China due to expected profit growth from optimized supply and demand [4] - The shipping sector shows a slight increase in container shipping indices, with potential benefits from geopolitical events affecting oil transportation. The report notes a 42.5% year-on-year increase in the crude oil transportation index [5] - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with a slight decrease in truck traffic on highways but overall competitive dividend yields compared to government bonds [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1%, with the aviation sector showing the highest increase at +4.8% and logistics experiencing the largest decline at -3.4% [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - Container shipping is stabilizing, with a slight increase in freight rates supported by seasonal demand. The report anticipates pressure on rates in mid-January due to expected capacity growth [21] - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [22] Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a 6% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in November, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [54] - The report highlights that major airlines are expected to see significant profit increases due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [54][75] Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger volume of 8.94% and freight volume of 1.16% in November, indicating a positive trend in transportation demand [78] - The road sector experienced a slight decline in passenger traffic but an increase in freight volume, with competitive dividend yields noted for major road operators [83]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO has been accepted, indicating a potential boom in the domestic rocket launch market in 2026, with the company leading in the development of reusable rockets [7][21] - The report highlights the expected increase in the frequency of rocket launches, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and favorable conditions for commercial rocket companies to go public [21] - The robotics sector is anticipated to experience significant growth in Q1 2026, particularly influenced by Tesla's V3 release and mass production, with a focus on leading companies like Hengli Hydraulic [21] - The report identifies various segments within the machinery industry, noting differing trends: general machinery remains under pressure, engineering machinery is accelerating upward, while shipbuilding is stabilizing and oil service equipment is bottoming out [22][30][36][41] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Feiwo Technology, Guanglian Aviation, and Hengli Hydraulic [13] 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 1.32% over the last week, ranking 5th among 31 primary industry categories, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.59% [15] 3. Core Insights Update - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO acceptance is a significant indicator of the upcoming boom in the domestic rocket launch market, with substantial contracts already secured [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-frequency launches and the potential for commercial rocket companies to list publicly, creating investment opportunities in this sector [21] - The robotics industry is expected to see a strong market focus in early 2026, particularly with Tesla's developments impacting the supply chain [21] 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The general machinery sector is under continued pressure, with the manufacturing PMI recently rising to 50.1%, marking the first increase above the threshold in eight months [22] - Forklift sales in November 2025 reached 119,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [22] 4.2 Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with excavator sales in November 2025 totaling 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [30] 4.3 Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector shows steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% growth since 2025 [36] 4.4 Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is stabilizing, with the global new ship price index at 184.33, indicating a slowdown in price declines [38] 4.5 Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with high activity in natural gas development in the Middle East [41] 4.6 Industrial Gases - The report notes that declining raw material prices are improving steel profitability, which is expected to boost industrial gas demand [43] 4.7 Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025 [45][47]

Group 1 - The report highlights that global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen alongside increased volatility. The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.76% and 4% respectively on the first trading day of 2026, driven by a rebound from previous stagnation and industry catalysts [2][12] - The report notes that the current value of industrial metals relative to US financial assets and broad money supply is at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued. The report anticipates that low inventory levels combined with monetary easing will amplify asset price fluctuations in the future [2][16] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should focus on maintaining a long position in the medium to long term, with opportunities arising after the volatility of popular commodities decreases [2][16] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for December exceeded market expectations, rising to 50.1%, indicating a positive shift in the economic fundamentals. Key highlights include a seasonal rebound in production, procurement, and business expectations, along with a rise in inventory indices [3][31] - The report discusses the implementation of new policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and an investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment. These measures are expected to smooth out fluctuations in domestic demand in 2026 [3][31] - Export orders have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in container throughput at ports and improved export growth rates in South Korea and Vietnam, indicating that exports remain a crucial component of the economic recovery [3][35] Group 3 - The report indicates that the "spring rally" may have already begun, with historical data suggesting a correlation between December and January market performances. The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a focus on the recovery of global manufacturing activities and their impact on Chinese assets [4][41] - The report emphasizes that the internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data exceeding expectations and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts. It recommends focusing on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility for better investment outcomes [5][54] - The report identifies several sectors for investment, including industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery and capital market expansion [5][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry chain and core computing hardware, with a focus on AI copper-clad boards, PCBs, semiconductor equipment, and domestic computing power benefiting from the AI sector [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the four major North American cloud service providers (CSPs) continues to grow, with a positive outlook for future spending. The total CAPEX for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta reached $97.3 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 65% [1][13]. - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain strong, driven by the increasing need for ASICs and GPUs. The global market for ASICs is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% from 2025 to 2029 [1][41]. - The semiconductor equipment industry is poised for growth due to the expansion of storage capacity and the push for domestic control, with significant opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Continued Optimism for the AI Industry Chain - The high CAPEX of cloud providers is expected to be sustainable, with Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta showing strong growth in capital expenditures [1][13]. - AI server demand is projected to increase significantly, with a 20% year-on-year growth expected in 2026, driven by CSP investments in AI infrastructure [1][34]. Section 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The storage expansion cycle, combined with the need for domestic control, is expected to benefit the semiconductor equipment supply chain. The introduction of 3D DRAM technology and increased stacking layers in NAND will drive demand for advanced manufacturing equipment [2][3]. Section 3: Domestic Computing Power Opportunities - Domestic cloud providers have significant room for increased capital expenditure, with major players like Alibaba planning to invest $58 billion in AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [2][3]. Section 4: AI Edge Applications and Hardware Innovations - Apple's AI strategy focuses on hardware integration and edge AI applications, with expectations for growth in AI/AR glasses and related technologies [3][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for AI copper-clad boards, PCBs, core computing hardware, semiconductor equipment, and domestic computing power, anticipating continued growth in these sectors through 2026 [3].

Group 1: Large Model Ecosystem and Applications - The iteration speed of large models remains high, with a stable ecosystem and trends expected in the short term, including the dominance of closed-source models and the increasing importance of multimodal capabilities [11][12][18] - The application of Agentic AI is accelerating, with a well-established infrastructure supporting rapid deployment in investment research, indicating a shift towards expert agents in the field [21][25] Group 2: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is currently in a weak recovery phase, with manufacturing PMI and PPI showing gradual improvement, suggesting a potential for inflation to rise in 2026 due to external factors like interest rate cuts and AI-driven capital expenditures [53][56][62] - The report anticipates a dual-line market trend of cyclical and technological growth, with a shift in style allocation from small-cap growth to large-cap balance, and a focus on fundamental factors in industry allocation [2][56] Group 3: Factor Stock Selection Outlook - The trend of using AI models for stock selection has increased, but the strategies have become crowded, leading to potential collective drawdowns; optimization methods are being explored to enhance model performance [2][3][21] - The introduction of advanced techniques such as Huber Loss and memory modules aims to reduce excess drawdowns and improve the models' adaptability to market fluctuations [2][3][21] Group 4: 2025 Equity Fund Investment Outlook - Active equity funds are expected to see a return of alpha, particularly in the context of a dual-line market of technology and cyclical sectors, with recommendations for both broad-based and thematic funds [3][4][30] - The new regulations on performance benchmarks are likely to shift the focus towards stock selection alpha as a primary source of excess returns [3][4][30]