1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20%, while the proportion in the neutral range increased to 30%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 50%. The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased [14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading continued to decline to 40% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. TL/T long - short ratio, policy spread, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantiles decreased by 54, 42, and 27 percentage points respectively. Real estate price ratio, fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles also declined to varying degrees. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, and the quantiles of indicators such as the whole - market turnover rate and market spread slightly rebounded [14]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 4 (20%), the number in the neutral range increased to 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range remained at 10 (50%). TL/T long - short ratio and policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range; fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range; allocation strength rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range; listed company wealth management buying volume and the whole - market turnover rate rose from the cold range to the neutral range [18]. - The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased. In trading heat, only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio quantiles decreased by 6 and 54 percentage points respectively, driving the average trading heat quantile down by 5 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, driving the average institutional behavior quantile up by 3 percentage points. The market spread quantile increased by 14 percentage points, and the policy spread quantile decreased by 42 percentage points, driving the average spread quantile down by 14 percentage points. The real estate price ratio quantile decreased by 16 percentage points, driving the average price ratio quantile down by 2 percentage points [18]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio dropped to the cold range - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 33%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile decreased by 54 percentage points, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The whole - market turnover rate quantile rebounded by 16 percentage points, rising from the cold range to the neutral range [19]. 3.2.2. Allocation strength rebounded - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%, and the proportion in the cold range decreased to 50%. The fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile decreased by 14 percentage points, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points to 84% and 56% respectively, with the former rising to the over - heated range and the latter to the neutral range [25]. 3.2.3. Policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range - The yield of 3 - year Treasury bonds rose 8bp, and the policy spread widened 8bp to 6bp. The corresponding quantile continued to decline 42 percentage points to 34%, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned bank spread narrowed by 9bp and 2bp to 52bp and - 1bp respectively, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened 2bp to 0bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed 3bp to 17bp, and its quantile rebounded 14 percentage points to 60%, remaining in the neutral range [30]. 3.2.4. Real estate price ratio quantile continued to decline - The proportion of price ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity price ratio quantiles rebounded by 5 and 1 percentage points respectively, while the real estate price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 16 percentage points [33].

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周，受节假日因素影响，聊天助手类应用活跃度普遍回落，其中 Kimi 降幅较为显著。行业动态方面，数据与 生态整合加速，微软收购 Osmos 优化 Fabric 平台数据流程，Snowflake 以 10 亿美元收购 Observe 布局 AI 可观 测性；谷歌 Gmail 全面集成 Gemini3 模型重塑邮件体验；阿里高德发布世界模型 FantasyWorld，登顶 WorldScore 榜单并落地低成本 3D 街景生成功能。 - 2025 年 11 月，中国智能手机销量达到约 2600 万台，同比上升约 10%。苹果、小米、华为、荣耀、OPPO 以约 23%、15%、14%、13%、12%的份额排名前五。具体型号方面，苹果 iPhone 17 Pro Max 销量排名第一，iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro 排名第二、第三。11 月国内 PC 市场销量有所回暖，台式机销量约为 152 万台，同比上升约 7%。笔电销量约为 195 万台，同比上升约 4%。 | 海外市场行情 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 37.7% for steel companies, suggesting a neutral to positive outlook for the sector [10][11]. Core Insights - The iron ore prices have increased due to expectations of spring replenishment by port traders, while the reduction of 19 million tons of capacity in Yulin has led to expectations of a reversal in coking coal prices [10][11]. - The domestic hot-rolled coil prices are showing a weak trend, with an average price of 3,306 RMB/ton, up by 16 RMB/ton from December 31 [11]. - The steel industry is experiencing a price increase across the black industrial chain due to raw material inflation, although the steel segment is currently facing a loss of 38.6 RMB per ton [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The report highlights a 3.3% increase in the CITIC Steel Index, which underperformed the market by 0.5% [10]. - The steel industry is at a fundamental bottom, with expectations of price stability in the near term [10]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals Overview Steel - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a slight increase in social inventory to 3.9524 million tons, up by 50,400 tons week-on-week [11]. - The demand for steel is supported by macroeconomic expectations, but actual high-level transactions remain low, leading to a forecast of narrow price adjustments in the coming week [11]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have slightly increased from a recent bottom, with some coal types experiencing price adjustments due to improved auction results [12]. - The supply side remains loose as previously reduced coal mines have resumed production, while demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for steel [12]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have risen, with the average price for 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port reaching 826 RMB/ton, an increase of 24 RMB/ton (+3%) from the previous week [13]. - The report anticipates that the replenishment by steel mills will remain restrained due to weak demand in real estate and infrastructure investments [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in pig farming and poultry [62]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.98% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite [12][14]. - In the pig farming sector, prices are currently stabilizing at a low level, with expectations of further declines due to weak supply and demand dynamics [21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices, particularly for white feather chickens, while yellow feather chickens are showing signs of recovery due to improved demand [32]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy prices are stabilizing after a period of decline [40]. - The planting sector is facing tight supply and demand conditions, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans anticipated due to external uncertainties and domestic policy support [43][44]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with certain seafood prices trending upwards [51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 9, the national average price for commodity pigs is 12.63 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.36%. The average weight of pigs at market is 128.54 kg, showing a slight decrease [20][21]. - The sector is expected to face further price declines due to weak demand and supply conditions, with a focus on reducing production capacity amid ongoing losses [21][22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.64 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04%. The profitability of poultry farming is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement for yellow feather chickens due to better demand [30][32]. Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong is 26.58 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but up 14.62% year-on-year. The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season [40]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, while the industry is still facing significant financial pressure [40]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2250 yuan/ton, with expectations of tight supply conditions leading to potential price increases. The soybean market is also showing upward trends [43][44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at a low point, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in crop yields [44]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are also stable, with notable increases in certain seafood products [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric new sector, particularly highlighting "space photovoltaic" as the strongest main line for 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining market recognition due to its significant value, inflation trends, and high barriers to entry, with expectations for continued market expansion [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage and lithium battery price increases, as well as the growth potential in wind power and green hydrogen under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3][12]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to create a "rush" for shipments, which may help mitigate the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations in Q1 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The space photovoltaic sector is recognized as a core branch of commercial aerospace, with its advantages becoming increasingly acknowledged by the market [2][6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is set for April 1, 2026, which is anticipated to lead to a surge in shipments to counteract seasonal demand dips [9][10]. - The report suggests actively participating in the space photovoltaic market, as the trend is expected to continue [2][6]. Wind Power - The report forecasts continued growth in domestic wind power installations in 2026, with an expected increase in offshore and onshore installations [12][13]. - The global wind power demand is projected to maintain a long-term positive outlook, driven by AI and electrification trends [13][14]. - Key recommendations include focusing on manufacturers with improved profitability and those benefiting from domestic and international market expansions [12][32]. Lithium Batteries - The report notes a reduction in the export tax rebate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation set for January 1, 2027 [16][17]. - Price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) have seen significant increases, with most customers accepting a processing fee hike of 1,000 yuan per ton [16][20]. - The lithium battery sector is expected to experience continued demand growth, particularly in the context of rising prices and expanding production capacities [18][33]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Bloom Energy has secured a $2.65 billion order, indicating strong demand for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and validating their commercial viability [29][30]. - The report highlights the potential for green hydrogen and related technologies to experience significant growth, driven by policy support and increasing demand [30][31]. - Key investment opportunities include companies involved in green methanol production and hydrogen fuel cell components [30][32]. Grid & Industrial Control - Significant investments in grid infrastructure are planned, with Southern Power Grid expecting over 20% growth in Q1 2026 [23][24]. - The report identifies opportunities in the industrial control sector, particularly for companies involved in robotics and automation technologies [28][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand in the automation market [28][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the humanoid robotics sector, highlighting 2026 as a pivotal year for the realization of humanoid robots from concept to mass production [3][19]. Core Insights - The robotics industry is experiencing accelerated growth, with significant advancements in humanoid robot designs, including the announcement of Tesla's third-generation robot and the unveiling of the world's first fully controllable small humanoid robot, "Shangwei Q1" [1][24]. - Strategic collaborations are forming, such as the partnership between Tencent's Robotics X Lab and Yushun Technology, aimed at enhancing humanoid robot applications in various sectors [1][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological convergence in the development of humanoid robots, with companies like Xiaopeng leveraging their expertise in smart vehicles to enhance robot capabilities [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotics - The robotics sector is witnessing a surge in activity, with a focus on commercial applications and ecosystem development. Companies are making strides in integrating AI services into robotics, enhancing their capabilities [8][9]. - The unveiling of the "Shangwei Q1" humanoid robot marks a significant step towards personal and family-oriented robotics, emphasizing portability and user-friendliness [24][26]. - Major industry players are collaborating to create robust ecosystems, as seen in the partnership between Tencent and Yushun Technology, which aims to deploy humanoid robots in cultural and commercial settings [21][22]. 2. Investment Recommendations - 2026 is projected to be a critical year for humanoid robots, with expectations for mass production and significant market penetration. The report identifies key areas for investment, including supply chain consolidation and technological advancements in electric drive systems and smart hands [3][19]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the supply chain and technology sectors, as well as exploring opportunities in both domestic and international markets [3][19]. 3. Key Components - The report highlights the launch of the "CHOHO Hand" by Zhenghe Industrial, showcasing its capabilities and strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing the robotics ecosystem [2][28]. - The emphasis on core component innovation is critical, with companies like Zhishen Technology achieving significant funding to accelerate product development and market entry [28].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the cryptocurrency industry, suggesting that the expected price movement over the next 3-6 months will be within -5% to 5% relative to the broader market [29] Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of recovery, with total market capitalization reaching $3.1 trillion, a 3.7% increase from the previous week. Bitcoin's closing price was $90,513, up 0.6%, while Ethereum's price was $3,083, down 1.3% [10][18] - The employment data from the U.S. showed a non-farm payroll increase of 50,000, below the expected 60,000, and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, which was also lower than the anticipated 4.5%. This has led traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts [10][18] - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is currently at 40, indicating a neutral sentiment that fluctuated throughout the week [13] - Global cryptocurrency trading volume increased by 52.9% week-over-week, ending a six-week decline, with Coinbase's spot trading volume rising by 62.8% [18][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization for the week was $3.11 trillion, reflecting a 3.7% increase. Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced price changes of +0.6% and -1.3%, respectively [10][15] - The employment data released indicated a slowdown in hiring, influencing market sentiment towards a potential pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Global Policy and Industry News - The U.S. Senate will review the CLARITY Act on January 15, which may impact the regulatory landscape for digital assets [20] - Major developments include the launch of tokenized deposit services by Bank of New York Mellon and the introduction of the Nasdaq CME Cryptocurrency Index (NCI) [20][24] - Brazil's presidential candidate plans to include Bitcoin in the national reserves, reflecting a growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in governmental financial strategies [22] Company News - MSCI has decided not to remove Bitcoin treasury company Strategy from its index but will not increase its stock count, affecting its index weight [25] - Walmart has launched Bitcoin and Ethereum transaction services through its OnePay app, allowing customers to use cryptocurrencies for retail purchases [26] - Applied Digital reported a 250% increase in quarterly revenue, driven by high-performance computing hosting services [26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the progress of the CLARITY Act and the potential impact on companies involved in cryptocurrency mining and trading platforms, particularly those with ties to AI data centers and significant power reserves [27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous with brands actively opening new stores, although there is a caution regarding short-term data volatility due to the seasonal downturn [3] - The tea beverage sector is under slight pressure as it enters the off-season, with a trend of subsidy reductions expected despite the government's investigation into delivery platforms [3] - The e-commerce sector continues to face challenges, showing lackluster performance due to the domestic consumption environment [3] - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on music subscription platforms [3] - The virtual asset and trading platform market is experiencing limited catalysts, with cryptocurrency prices remaining volatile [3] - The automotive service sector is seeing expansion, with new 4S stores being opened by Zhongsheng Group in various cities [3] - The internet healthcare sector is gaining attention with OpenAI's launch of "ChatGPT Health," suggesting a focus on this area [3] - The AI and cloud sectors are viewed positively, with recommendations to monitor leading tech companies with strong cash flows [3] - The media sector is showing signs of recovery, with new games performing well and user growth in the gaming segment [3] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index decreased by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 0.57 percentage points [8] - Notable stock performances include: Gu Ming (+8.72%), Ba Wang Tea (+6.99%), and Luckin Coffee (-6.47%) [8][10] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index increased by 3.22%, outperforming both the Hang Seng index and the technology index [15] - Key stock performances include: iQIYI (+0.99%) and Tencent Music (-2.86%) [15] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - As of January 9, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $319.54 billion, up 3.40% [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were $90,505 and $3,083.14, reflecting changes of +0.6% and -1.2% respectively [22] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 0.38%, with notable stock performances including Advance Auto Parts (+12.73%) [31] 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by 0.27%, with key stock performances such as JD Health (+13.31%) and Didi Global (-7.19%) [37] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index increased by 1.59%, with Amazon (+9.22%) and Google (+4.26%) showing strong performances [39] 1.3 Media - The Shenwan一级传媒 index increased by 13.14%, with the advertising and marketing sector showing the largest gains [46] - Key stock performances include: Xindong Company (+18.50%) and Tencent Holdings (-1.93%) [46]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The competition in AI entry points is intensifying, with major companies increasing their investments. China's AI presence globally has significantly improved, with domestic large models continuously iterating. Despite GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro leading, Chinese models have effectively altered the North American dominance in the competitive landscape. In the global Top 10, three positions are held by Chinese models, and in the Top 15, there are six Chinese companies. By 2025, China's open-source AI model usage is expected to account for over 70% of the global market [2][11][19] - The demand for inference has surged, with the emergence of o1 class inference models unlocking approximately 10 times the potential of traditional models in terms of inference-time compute. The demand for computing power has shifted from being solely "training-driven" to a dual focus on "training + inference" [2][5][37] - The battle for entry points has evolved beyond mobile devices to OS-level intelligent agents and super apps. By December 24, 2025, ByteDance's AI application Doubao announced daily active users (DAU) exceeding 100 million, while Qianwen App reached over 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of public testing, becoming the fastest-growing AI application globally. Doubao bypasses traditional interfaces, creating an "AI operating system" that directly interacts with super apps like WeChat and Alipay, challenging the rules of the traditional app era [2][44][45] Summary by Sections AI Entry Point Competition - China's AI global presence has significantly improved, with domestic large models continuously iterating. In the global Top 10, three positions are held by Chinese models, and in the Top 15, there are six Chinese companies. By 2025, China's open-source AI model usage is expected to account for over 70% of the global market [2][11][19] - The competition for entry points has evolved beyond mobile devices to OS-level intelligent agents and super apps, with significant user engagement reported for new AI applications [2][44][45] Domestic Chip Breakthroughs - The smart computing center in China is expanding, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57% from 2020 to 2028, reaching 2,781.9 EFLOPS by 2028. Domestic chip technology is steadily improving, with local cloud service providers accelerating the construction of heterogeneous environments [5][50] - Domestic general-purpose GPUs are upgrading from "usable" to "good," with performance metrics approaching those of leading international models. The production capacity of domestic chip manufacturers like SMIC is continuously increasing, providing solid support for domestic AI chip production [5][53][54] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is characterized by a surge in inference demand as AI applications become more prevalent, while the supply side sees continuous improvements in domestic GPU performance and accelerated adaptation by cloud service providers [5][59] - The AI server market is expected to see a shift towards inference servers becoming the mainstream, with a projected market size of approximately $39.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.7% [5][64]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - Li Ning is accelerating the rollout of its "Dragon Store" pop-up shops, with the first opening in Beijing on December 14, 2025, and plans for additional locations in major cities [1][11] - Natural Hall has become the top brand in the cosmetics collection store category for the first ten months of 2025, indicating strong operational capabilities from the company [2][16] - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in China for 2025 are projected to reach 822.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.18% [2][16] - The apparel retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in November, although the growth rate has slowed compared to October [3][24] Summary by Sections Li Ning's Dragon Store Launch - Li Ning's first Dragon Store opened in Beijing's Sanlitun area, themed "Dragon Glory," showcasing a new product line [1][11] - The company plans to open 18 additional stores, integrating cultural elements into the store design to enhance brand experience [11][12] Natural Hall's Market Position - Natural Hall leads the cosmetics collection store rankings, with a market share of 57.03% for domestic brands, reflecting a recovery in the cosmetics market [2][16] - The online retail channel for cosmetics grew by 9.36%, while offline sales increased by 2.38% [2][16] Industry Data Tracking - Apparel retail sales in November grew by 3.5%, but the growth rate decreased compared to October, indicating potential volatility in recovery [3][24] - Jewelry retail sales saw a decline of 8.5% year-on-year, but there is a recovery in regional consumption [3][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Haizhu's business transformation aligns with consumer trends, indicating potential for future growth [4] - In the beauty sector, companies like Juzhi Biological and Jinbo Biological are recommended due to their strong operational resilience and product launches [4] - The jewelry sector remains attractive with rising gold prices, recommending brands like Laopu Gold for investment [4] Market Performance Overview - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experienced gains of 2.79% and 4.40%, respectively, with the textile and apparel sector rising by 2.65% [5][39] - Specific companies like Yingfeng and Jiumuwang showed significant stock price increases, while others like Lianfa and Wanlima faced declines [5][39]