Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The acquisition of 80% stakes in two companies enhances the company's market share in the waterproofing materials sector, particularly in North China. The acquisition price has been adjusted downwards due to the decline in the waterproofing industry's market conditions compared to 2022 [3][4]. - The company anticipates an increase in production capacity for various waterproofing materials, including 12 million square meters of asphalt waterproofing membranes, 4 million square meters of polymer waterproofing membranes, and 159,000 tons of waterproof coatings [3]. - The financial performance for the first half of 2025 shows a revenue of approximately 2.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 6%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, also reflecting a 6% increase [3]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The total price for acquiring 80% stakes in Tangshan Yuanda Hongyu Waterproof Materials Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Yuanda Hongyu Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is 418 million yuan. The adjusted acquisition price reflects the current market conditions in the waterproofing industry [2][4]. - The expected revenue and net profit for the Tangshan entity in 2024 are 820 million yuan and 80 million yuan, respectively, with a net profit margin of approximately 9.8% [4]. - The expected revenue and net profit for the Suzhou entity in 2024 are 199 million yuan and 2 million yuan, respectively, with a net profit growth of 40.5% [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.99 billion yuan, 27.88 billion yuan, and 29.22 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 7%, and 5% respectively. The projected net profits for the same period are 3.15 billion yuan, 3.66 billion yuan, and 4.01 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% respectively [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on November 26 are projected to be 13, 11, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side production cuts are accelerating the destocking of steel products, while inflation shows signs of the decline in pork prices slowing down. [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking 1.1 Production: Limited Increment in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has limited increment. On November 25, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 79.3 tons, down 1.3% from November 18. On November 18, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 186 tons, up 3.3% from November 11. [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate has been declining this month. On November 21, the national blast furnace operating rate was 82.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 14; the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from November 14. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 91.2% compared to November 14. [4][15] - The tire operating rate has declined. On November 20, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from November 13; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 71.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from November 13. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to decline. [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has improved month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 243,000 square meters, up 11.9% from the same period in October, but down 30.4% from the same period last November, 20.1% from the same period in 2023, and 35.9% from the same period in 2022. [4][23] - The retail sales of the auto market have improved week by week. In November, retail sales were down 11% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 8% year - on - year. [4][27] - Steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. On November 25, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by + 0.6%, - 0.3%, + 1.5%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to November 18. [4][32] - Cement prices remained stable. On November 25, the national cement price index remained flat compared to November 18. Cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell by 0.7%. [4][33] - Glass prices fluctuated strongly. On November 26, the active glass futures contract price was 1,026 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from November 19. [4][38] - The container shipping freight index showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. On November 21, the CCFI index rose 2.6% compared to November 14, while the SCFI index fell 4.0%. [4][40] 2. Inflation: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down 2.1 CPI: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down - The decline in pork prices slowed down. On November 26, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.9 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from November 19. [4][46] - The agricultural product price index rose moderately. On November 26, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.6% compared to November 18. By variety, fruits (+ 2.8%) > vegetables (+ 1.4%) > mutton (+ 1.3%) > pork (- 0.3%) > eggs (- 0.5%) > chicken (- 0.7%) > beef (- 1.0%). [4][53] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Declined Weakly - Oil prices declined weakly. On November 25, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 63.2 and 58.0 dollars/barrel respectively, down 0.6% and 4.6% from November 18. [4][56] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On November 25, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.5% and 1.0% respectively compared to November 18. [4][61] - The decline of the domestic commodity index narrowed month - on - month. On November 25, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.6% compared to November 18, and the CRB index fell 0.7%. [4][61] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in November. The prices of steam coal and wire rod rose month - on - month, while other industrial product prices fell. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged, except for cement and glass. [63]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -5.80%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest decline of -2.72% [3][11] - Average trading volumes for the current, next, and quarterly contracts increased across all contracts, with the SSE 50 showing the largest increase of 18.96% and the CSI 500 the smallest at 13.60% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts as of last Friday were -4.13%, -10.17%, -12.27%, and -1.89% for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a deepening of the basis for IF and IH while IC and IM saw a narrowing [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts compared to the next contracts were at the 96.70%, 90.20%, 89.30%, and 89.10% percentiles for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a historical distribution skewed to the right [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices, as the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts and Market Expectations - The estimated impacts on index points for the next year from the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 77.00, 82.49, 68.09, and 64.38 respectively [4][12] - Following the end of the main dividend distribution period, the influence of dividends on the four major index futures contracts is minimal, with a notable increase in market risk aversion reflected in the declines of all four contracts [4][12] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among seven brokerages indicates that the A-share market will continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, but there is potential for upward movement in the medium term [5][36] - The AI industry chain, upstream resource sectors, and high-dividend assets are viewed positively, benefiting from industry trends, improved supply-demand dynamics, and policy support [5][36]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries have both declined, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [1][13][19]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with volatility rising for most major indices. Over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - Excluding the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index, the volatility of other major indices has increased, with the volatility of the electric new energy and electronics sectors remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, while the research activity in oil and petrochemicals, real estate, and non-bank financials has continued to rise [3][43]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][50]. - Specific sectors such as financial real estate, machinery, military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel have also seen upward adjustments in their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts [4][50]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices for 2025/2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the ChiNext index and SSE 50 have been adjusted differently [4][50]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show significant net selling of A-shares. The ratio of total buy and sell amounts in sectors like electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, communications, and home appliances [4][5]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has significantly decreased, reaching the lowest point since late July 2025. The net selling has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals, while media, military industry, and real estate have seen net buying [5][6]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, primarily driven by institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, steel, and financial sectors, while reducing positions in TMT, military, and machinery sectors [6][8].

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数下跌，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为-2.7%、-3.73%、- 5.77%和-5.79%。 从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，11 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型对 11 月份经 济增长层面信号强度为 0%；而货币流动性层面信号强度为 50%。择时策略 2025 年年初至今收益率为 13.55%，同期 Wind 全 A 收益率为 25.61%。 过去一周市场宽幅波动，在海外流动性收紧下，价值因子表现良好。且随着市场波动放大，量价类因子表现量良好。 且我们可观察到，在市场弱势情况下，对于有潜在业绩支撑的板块更加偏好，导致一致预期因子表现良好。展望未来 一周，在宏观不确定仍较高的情况下，我们预估价值和量价类因子表现能有所延续。 风险提示 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收正，茅指数为负斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至微盘股指数信号，中期配置微盘股指数的预期能有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 5.797 billion RMB, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 767 million RMB, up 11.7% year-over-year [2]. - The domestic and overseas segments showed strong growth, with domestic revenue from Miniso at 2.909 billion RMB (+19.3%), overseas Miniso at 2.312 billion RMB (+27.7%), and TOPTOY at 575 million RMB (+111.4%) [3]. - The company is actively expanding its store network, reaching a total of 4,407 stores in China, with significant growth in first, second, and third-tier cities [3]. - The overseas segment has also seen a boost, with North America exceeding same-store growth expectations and a total of 3,424 overseas stores [3]. - TOPTOY's revenue growth is attributed to rapid store expansion and increased sales of proprietary IP products, with a total of 307 stores as of Q3 [4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.964 billion RMB, 3.419 billion RMB, and 4.208 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15, 13, and 11 times, respectively [5]. - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 25.12%, 23.03%, and 21.77% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [10]. - The adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at 8.96%, 15.35%, and 23.07% for the same years [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped slightly by 2 percentage points to 50% compared to the previous period. Most of the trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, while only a few indicator quantiles such as fund divergence, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, policy spread, and commodity price ratio increased to varying degrees. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - transaction thermometer reading dropped to 50% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped 2 percentage points to 50%. Most trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, with the 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropping 12 and 3 percentage points respectively, the full - market turnover rate quantile dropping 12 percentage points, and the institutional leverage quantile dropping 6 percentage points. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The decline in the listed company wealth - management purchase volume and stock - bond price ratio quantiles was also significant, at 35 and 29 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion levels include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund's ultra - long - term bond purchase volume [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) were in the neutral range, and 8 (40%) were in the cold range. The full - market turnover rate and listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rose from the cold to the neutral range. In terms of different types of indicators: - **Trading heat**: The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropped 12, 12, 6, and 3 percentage points respectively, and only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The average trading heat quantile dropped 1 percentage point [5]. - **Institutional behavior**: The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume and fund divergence quantiles rose 20 and 14 percentage points respectively, while the listed company wealth - management purchase volume quantile dropped 35 percentage points. The average institutional behavior quantile was basically flat compared to the previous period [5]. - **Spread**: The market spread rose 1 percentage point, and the policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points. The average spread quantile rose 3 percentage points [5]. - **Price ratio**: The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 29 percentage points, and the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points. The average price ratio quantile dropped 6 percentage points [5]. 3.2.1. The full - market turnover rate dropped to the cold range - In trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 17%. The full - market turnover rate quantile dropped 12 percentage points from the neutral to the cold range. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points to 67% and remained in the neutral range [6]. 3.2.2. The quantile of listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped significantly - In institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 38%, 25%, and 38% respectively. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantile rose 20 percentage points to 57% and moved from the cold to the neutral range [7]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points - The policy spread slightly dropped 1bp to 3bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 5 percentage points to 46%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread narrowed 1bp to 49bp, the agricultural development - state development spread remained at 0bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread also remained at 2bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 17bp, and its quantile slightly rose 1 percentage point to 62%, remaining in the neutral range [8]. 3.2.4. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly - All price - ratio - related indicators were in the cold range. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped 29 percentage points to 0%, the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points, and the real - estate and consumer - goods price ratio quantiles remained the same as the previous period [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - Siemens Energy has raised its gas turbine production target, indicating strong demand for gas turbines, which benefits leading turbine blade manufacturer Yingliu. Siemens aims for a production capacity of 17GW in FY24, increasing to 22GW from 2025 to 2027, and exceeding 30GW from 2028 to 2030 [5][24]. - The tractor market showed stable data in October, with corn prices returning to positive year-on-year growth, suggesting a recovery in agricultural machinery demand [5][24]. - The robotics sector is approaching a pivotal moment with upcoming mass production from leading companies, highlighting the potential for domestic suppliers to break through [5][24]. - The general machinery sector remains under pressure, while engineering machinery is accelerating upward, and gas turbines are showing steady growth [5][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 4.78% in the week of November 17-21, 2025, ranking 13th among 31 primary industry categories. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 25.58%, ranking 6th [3][15]. Key Data Tracking - General Machinery: Continues to face pressure with a PMI of 49.0% in October, indicating contraction [23]. - Engineering Machinery: Sales of excavators reached 18,096 units in October, up 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery [31]. - Railway Equipment: Steady growth with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% [43]. - Gas Turbines: GEV's new gas turbine orders grew by 39% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting strong industry demand [55][56]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights significant developments in various sectors, including the acquisition of Mitsubishi Electric's motor business by Ebara and advancements in 3D printing technology by INTAMSYS [59][60].

Electricity Consumption - In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%[5] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 13.2%, 6.2%, and 17.1% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 23.9%[5] - The tertiary industry and urban-rural residents contributed 5.9 percentage points to the overall electricity consumption growth[5] Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000[7] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, up from the previous value of 4.3%[7] Japan's Bond Yield - As of November 21, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, marking a significant increase and reaching levels not seen since 2008[17] - The 40-year bond yield peaked at 3.73%, while the 30-year yield reached 3.36%[17] China-Japan Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, impacting Japanese tourism and consumer stocks significantly[10] - China's suspension of Japanese seafood imports due to nuclear contamination concerns has led to a drastic drop in Japan's seafood export value to China, falling over 90% from 2022 levels[10] Youth Unemployment - In October, the unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 was 17.3%, while the rate for those aged 25-29 was 7.2%[13] - The total estimated unemployed population in China for the 16-59 age group is approximately 41.95 million, with an overall estimate of around 45 million[13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The research highlights the significant generational differences in consumer behavior and production capabilities across Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with Thailand resembling a "miniature" version of the Western consumer market, Vietnam in a rapid growth phase, and Cambodia reflecting characteristics of less developed nations [1] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in Southeast Asia, particularly in consumer goods and technology-driven sectors, as companies leverage local production capabilities and growing consumer markets [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - Thailand is compared to a "miniature" Western market, showcasing a mature consumer culture and a well-developed service industry, making it a reference point for companies looking to expand into Western markets [1] - Vietnam is characterized as a rapidly developing economy, with a GDP projected to reach approximately 62.69 trillion VND (around 4,700 USD) in 2024, indicating a significant consumer market potential [1] - Cambodia is noted for its low average income and high income disparity, with consumer spending primarily focused on essential goods, suggesting a slower penetration of discretionary spending [1] 2. Segment Tracking - Xiaomi Group is exploring the future of smart home technology with its Xiaomi Miloco initiative, aiming to enhance user interaction and privacy through advanced AI models [9][10] - The pet food sector saw significant growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with sales for the brand Guibao exceeding 1 billion RMB, reflecting a trend towards premium pet products [11][12] - The AI and 3D printing industry is experiencing high demand, with companies like Tuozhu achieving record sales during major shopping events, indicating strong market potential [21][22] 3. Macro Consumption Data - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with service sector prices rising, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [35] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement in the month-on-month trend, suggesting a potential stabilization in production costs [45] - Online sales data from major platforms indicated a decline in the home appliance sector, with specific brands like Ecovacs and Roborock showing positive growth despite overall market challenges [50]