Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% within the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent passing of the Stablecoin Regulation Bill in Hong Kong, allowing institutions to apply for compliance as stablecoin issuers by the end of the year [2]. - ZA Bank, a subsidiary of the company, aims to provide banking services for stablecoin issuers and has already partnered with over 80 Web3 companies [2][3]. - The company has launched cryptocurrency trading services for retail users in Hong Kong, simplifying the investment process through its app [3]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 905 million yuan, reflecting a 50% increase from the previous year [5][11]. Financial Projections - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 27,535 million yuan in 2023 to 45,823 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.5% [11]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 294 million yuan in 2023 to 1,360 million yuan by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [11]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 0.84 in 2023 to 0.62 by 2027, suggesting potential undervaluation [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% within the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent passing of the Stablecoin Regulation Bill in Hong Kong, allowing institutions to apply for compliance as stablecoin issuers by the end of the year [2]. - ZA Bank, a subsidiary of the company, aims to provide banking services for Web 3.0 and has already partnered with over 80 Web3 companies, enhancing its market presence [2][3]. - The company has launched cryptocurrency trading services for retail users in Hong Kong, simplifying the investment process through its app [3]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 905 million yuan, reflecting a 50% increase from the previous year [5][11]. Summary by Sections Business Development - ZA Bank is the first digital bank in Hong Kong to offer reserve banking services for stablecoin issuers, collaborating with Circle Innovation Technology as one of the first sandbox participants [2][4]. - The bank has established strong ties with digital asset exchanges and stablecoin issuers, indicating potential for further collaborations [4]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, with a low base in the first half of 2024, where net profit is expected to be only 5.5 million yuan [5]. - The projected insurance service revenue for 2025 is 35.26 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.1% [11]. Valuation Metrics - As of now, the company's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.74, which is at the 5% percentile of valuations since 2018, indicating a low valuation opportunity [5].

4 月家电新兴市场出口维持较好增长，空调 6 月排产高增 关税影响下 4 月家电出口降速，但新兴市场维持高增。4 月家电出口数量/金额（人民币）同比分别+1.5%/-1.7%。分 品类来看，4 月空调出口 1068 万台，同比+14.5%；冰箱出口 761 万台，同比-0.7%；洗衣机出口 392 万台，同比+16.1%； 液晶电视出口 862.8 万台，同比-7.8%。拆分区域来看，4 月冰冷东南亚、非洲出口增速领跑。25 年 4 月，东南亚、 非洲冰冷出口金额约 7.9、5.8 亿元，分别同比+70%、+43%。中东、南美成熟市场增速维持强劲，出口金额约 6.8、8.7 亿元，分别同比+31%、+16%。欧洲、北美地区出口规模出现较大幅度下滑，出口金额约 22.5、10.3 亿元，分别同比- 19%、-21%；4 月南美、中东空调出口增速显著。25 年 4 月南美、中东空调出口金额约 19.1、43.8 亿元，分别同比 +37%、+31%。其次是欧洲、非洲，分别同比 14%、14%。北美及东南亚地区出口规模出现下滑，出口金额约 9.3、11.0 亿元，分别同比-5%、-11%；4 月东南亚、中东电视出口增 ...

4 月家电新兴市场出口维持较好增长，空调 6 月排产高增 关税影响下 4 月家电出口降速，但新兴市场维持高增。4 月家电出口数量/金额（人民币）同比分别+1.5%/-1.7%。分 品类来看，4 月空调出口 1068 万台，同比+14.5%；冰箱出口 761 万台，同比-0.7%；洗衣机出口 392 万台，同比+16.1%； 液晶电视出口 862.8 万台，同比-7.8%。拆分区域来看，4 月冰冷东南亚、非洲出口增速领跑。25 年 4 月，东南亚、 非洲冰冷出口金额约 7.9、5.8 亿元，分别同比+70%、+43%。中东、南美成熟市场增速维持强劲，出口金额约 6.8、8.7 亿元，分别同比+31%、+16%。欧洲、北美地区出口规模出现较大幅度下滑，出口金额约 22.5、10.3 亿元，分别同比- 19%、-21%；4 月南美、中东空调出口增速显著。25 年 4 月南美、中东空调出口金额约 19.1、43.8 亿元，分别同比 +37%、+31%。其次是欧洲、非洲，分别同比 14%、14%。北美及东南亚地区出口规模出现下滑，出口金额约 9.3、11.0 亿元，分别同比-5%、-11%；4 月东南亚、中东电视出口增 ...

4月已公布重点出口商品中，出口增速最高的是中间品和资本品，分别为8.5%、8.2%，显著高于消费品的出口增速-4.1%。 另外，5 月 6 日美国公布的贸易数据也显示，3 月美国继续从全球"抢进口"。 出口增速的压力将在 6-7 月开始显现。一是从美国企业下订单到商品出口存在 2 个月左右的时间差，4 月 PMI 新出口 订单大幅下滑 4.3 个百分点至 44.7%，创 2023 年以来新低，预计从 6 月初开始出口增速可能开始减弱。二是随着 90 天豁免期结束（4 月 9 日开始，到 7 月 9 日），出口的不确定性在升温，同时前期企业"抢进口"也透支了一部分需求。 三是美国经济下行压力逐渐显现导致的需求不足也会成为后续出口的核心拖累之一。 风险提示 美国关税政策来回波动巨大，中美之间贸易谈判不确定性高。 全球贸易前景不明确，美国与其他国家之间的贸易往来不确定性高。 关税贸易摩擦下，中国出口在后续或面临大幅下行压力，并对中国经济造成明显冲击。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 用使箱邮共公益兴华国司公限有理管产资险保益兴华国供仅告报此 4 月中国出口（以美元计价）同比增长 8.1%，表现出明显的"抢转口"特征。 扫 ...

量化信用策略 截至 5 月 16 日，城投短端下沉防御属性凸显。中长端策略方面，城投仓位为组合提供一定保护空间，使对应重仓策 略上周的超额收益均在 2bp 以上，而城投短端下沉基本跑赢其余策略。从近四周表现来看，尽管金融债重仓组合上周 普遍呈现负项超额收益，但券商债策略表现维稳，累计超额持续领先；二永债久期策略累计读数则受到单周拖累，整 体落后于短债下沉策略。 品种久期跟踪 城投债、产业债、二级资本债成交久期处于历史高位。截至 5 月 16 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.21 年、 2.72 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加 权平均成交期限分别为 4.09 年、3.52 年、2.21 年；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租 赁公司债久期分别为 1.64 年、2.33 年、3.51 年、1.50 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，保险公 司债、租赁公司债位于较高历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 5 月 19 日，与上周相比，非金融非地产类产业债、城投债收益率普遍下行；地 ...

业绩简评 公司于 5 月 22 日公布 FY2025 年报。全年实现营收 270.13 亿元， 同降 6.69%，归母净利润 12.86 亿元，同降 41.89%，公司 FY25 年 宣告派发股息 0.28 元，派息率约 135%，维持买入评级。 经营分析 消费疲软影响流水，精简渠道持续提效。FY25 公司主力品牌/其他 品牌同比下降 6.1%/9.9%至 233.11/35.05 亿元，主要受到终端消 费疲软，线下客流持续下降影响。分渠道来看，公司线下聚焦高效 大面积门店，加速淘汰低效门店，FY25 期末门店数为 5020 家，同 比下降 1124 家，平均门店面积同比增长 7.2%，期间单店收入同比 增长约 14%，公司举办多样化营销活动增强会员粘性，FY25 末会 员数量达 8600 万，同比增长 500 万，会员贡献店内销售额比例达 93.2%，其中复购会员消费占会员整体 70%。线上方面 FY25 公司包 括公域和私域在内的线上销售额同比录得双位数增长，公司聚焦 平台电商+内容电商+私域运营全面组合，充分挖掘线上渠道潜力， 对线下销售形成了较好补充。 毛利率短期承压，费用率预计持续优化。FY25 全 ...

在"抢出口"、"抢转口"的带动下，即使面临高基数，二季度出口也有望实现 3%-5%左右的相关高增。综合来看，我 们依旧预计二季度 GDP 同比增速能够实现 5.2%左右的增长，对应上半年 GDP 同比增速或在 5.3%左右。4 月统计局数据 和 5 月高频数据也显示，4、5 月月度 GDP 增速或在 5.4%、5.3%左右。这与需求侧的预测也相符合。 上半年经济的平稳开局，为政策应对外部的不确定性提供了很大的空间。三季度即使出口下滑压力开始显现，存量政 策使用也接近尾声，增量政策也有足够的腾挪空间。 风险提示 文中对二季度 GDP 的测算基于模型结果，实际数据与按照此前经验估算的数据或存在一定的差异。 出口受贸易摩擦的影响较为明显，后续或出现明显波动，对经济的影响超预期 消费主要受益于政策的以旧换新，关注后续政策对基本面的扰动 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 宏观经济点评 扫码获取更多服务 现在国内经济大致可以分为三条主线，一是贸易摩擦下的出口；二是政策刺激下的投资和消费；三是经济真实的内生 动力。 随着贸易摩擦缓和出口再度进入"抢出口"阶段后，我们认为二季度基本面真实的成色与韧性或更加值得关注。 第一，补贴内 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the stock of local bonds reaching 50.79 trillion yuan as of May 16, 2025 [3][11]. - The issuance of local government bonds last week totaled 197.249 billion yuan, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [4][18]. - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend [5][36]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of May 16, 2025, the stock of local bonds reached 50.79 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [3][11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were all over 1 trillion yuan. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of May 16, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock, with each exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had a stock of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 197.249 billion yuan were issued, including 99.393 billion yuan of new special bonds and 21.938 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [4][18]. - As of May 16, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in May had reached 30.168 billion yuan, accounting for 5.47% of the monthly local bond issuance [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of 7 - 10 - year local bonds last week had a relatively high proportion, reaching 42.26%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the 30 - year local bond issuance rate and the same - term treasury bond slightly widened to 23.65BP, and the spread of the 20 - year local bond to the same - term treasury bond slightly narrowed to 14.35BP [4][27]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week increased slightly compared with two weeks ago, and the primary tender sentiment significantly recovered [4][27]. - Five provinces issued new bonds last week. Anhui had the largest issuance volume this month, with terms mainly concentrated in 7 - 10 years and 10 - 20 years. Fujian followed, with terms mainly concentrated within 7 years and 10 - 20 years. Guangxi, Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan also had relatively large new issuance amounts. Except for Guangxi and Inner Mongolia, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of May 16, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.9%, with a spread of 22.07BP to the same - term treasury bond, at the 72.6% quantile since 2024. The quantiles of the price spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 72.6% and 88.2% respectively [5][36]. - The turnover rate of local bonds rebounded last week, and the turnover rates of all term varieties significantly increased compared with two weeks ago. The highest weekly turnover rate was for varieties within 10 years, at 1.02% [5][43]. - In terms of regions, Shandong had over 300 trading transactions and Jiangsu had over 200 trading transactions last week. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 16.53 years, with an average yield of 1.96% [5][43]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 57.304 billion yuan, of which the purchase of varieties over 20 - 30 years accounted for 73%. Other institutions were all net sellers [5][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its fundamentals, with a strong technological layout and a low-cost strategy, indicating robust momentum under the current circumstances. The focus should be on the status of new vehicle launches [3]. - The company delivered 94,008 vehicles in Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 330.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7%. Revenue for Q1 reached 15.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 141.4% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.9% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 15.6%, with the automotive business gross margin at 10.5%, showing improvements compared to previous periods [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 R&D and SG&A expenses were 1.98 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan respectively, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios at 12.5% and 12.3% [1]. - The company recorded a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1, with a calculated loss of 7,000 yuan per vehicle sold [1][2]. Sales and Market Outlook - The reduction in losses is attributed to strong sales of popular models and an increase in gross margin despite a higher proportion of lower-margin models [2]. - The company anticipates some pressure in Q2 due to increased market competition but expects stable sales driven by export growth and new vehicle deliveries [2]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are 94.62 billion yuan for 2025, 153.27 billion yuan for 2026, and 175.70 billion yuan for 2027, indicating substantial growth [3][7].