那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数持平于 57% 本期各类指标走势不一，全市场换手率、政策利差分位值上升 18、15 个百分点，30/10Y 国债换手率、基金超长债买 入量、货币松紧预期等指标分位值小幅回升。配置盘力度、TL/T 多空比、上市公司理财买入量、商品比价分位值分别 回落 16、9、6、6 个百分点。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、TL/T 多空比、机构杠杆、债基止盈压 力。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降为 30% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数降 6 个（占比 30%）、位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）、位 于偏冷区间的指标数量降至 5 个（占比 25%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，配置盘力度分位值回落 16 个百分点， 由过热区间降至中性区间。 交易热度分位均值下降 2 个百分点 ①交易热度中，1/10Y 国债换手率、TL/T 多空比分位值下降 6、9 个百分点，30/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率分位 值上升 4、15 个百分点，因此交易热度分位均值下降 2 个百分点。②机构行为类指标中，基金买超长、货币松紧预期 分位值上升 4、6 个 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the fundraising scale of newly - issued bond funds declined, but the bond funds' performance was good, leading to an increase in the outstanding scale. The outstanding share of bond - type funds at the end of Q4 reached 9.31 trillion shares, an increase of nearly 200 billion shares compared to Q3 [3][20]. - For pure - bond funds, the heavy - position structure still focuses on interest - rate bonds, with credit bonds accounting for about 20%. In Q4, pure - bond funds mainly increased their positions in general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds, and significantly reduced their positions in general commercial financial bonds [4]. - For fixed - income + funds, interest - rate bonds are important underlying assets, accounting for 42% of the total market value of heavy - position bonds. The fixed - income + funds concentrated on policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds in terms of interest - rate bond positions, and preferred Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds in terms of credit - bond positions [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview of Incremental Funds: Weak New - issue Performance, Growth in the Total Scale of Bond Funds - In Q4 2025, 101 new bond - type funds were issued, and the fundraising scale dropped to 58.6 billion yuan, showing a significant contraction compared with Q3 2025 and Q4 2024 [3][14]. - The bond - type fund index rose 0.51% quarter - on - quarter, and the long - term pure - bond funds outperformed short - term bond funds. The outstanding share of bond - type funds at the end of Q4 was 9.31 trillion shares, an increase of nearly 200 billion shares compared to Q3 [3][20]. 3.2 Heavy - position Bonds' Preference: Pure - bond Funds - The heavy - position structure of pure - bond funds still focused on interest - rate bonds in Q4 2025. The market value of heavy - position interest - rate bonds and credit bonds accounted for 71% and 20% of the total heavy - position market value respectively, with a marginal decline in heavy - position scale, decreasing by 5% and 3% quarter - on - quarter [4][25]. - In terms of varieties, pure - bond funds mainly increased their positions in general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds, and significantly reduced their positions in general commercial financial bonds. The heavy - position scale of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds increased by 6.4 billion yuan and 5.4 billion yuan respectively, while the heavy - position scale of general commercial financial bonds decreased by over 30 billion yuan [4][28]. - **Urban investment bonds**: Pure - bond funds mainly increased their positions in urban investment bonds with an implicit rating of AA, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 10.5 billion yuan. The proportion of holdings of varieties within 1 year remained stable at 43%. Zhejiang and Shandong were the provinces with the largest scale of urban investment bond allocation, and the increase in positions in Q4 was also mainly in these two provinces [4][35]. - **Industrial bonds**: The industries with the largest heavy - position scale of industrial bonds for pure - bond funds were public utilities and real estate. In Q4, pure - bond funds increased their positions in comprehensive, public utilities, and building decoration bonds. Due to the Vanke incident, pure - bond funds were relatively cautious about real - estate bonds. The heavy - position scale of industrial bonds was still concentrated within 3 years, with the proportion of holdings within 1 year dropping to 33%, and the proportion of holdings from 2 - 3 years increasing marginally [4][42]. - **Financial bonds**: The preference for Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds by pure - bond funds recovered slightly in Q4. Pure - bond funds increased their positions in Tier 2 capital bonds by 7 billion yuan, continued to reduce their positions in bank perpetual bonds, and the heavy - position scale of Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds accounted for 24% of credit bonds, with the proportion of Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds of small and medium - sized banks decreasing [5][48]. 3.3 Heavy - position Bonds' Preference: Fixed - income + Funds - In Q4 2025, interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and convertible bonds in the heavy - position assets of fixed - income + funds accounted for 42%, 28%, and 25% of the total market value of heavy - position bonds respectively. The growth rate of heavy - position interest - rate bonds slowed down from 34% in Q3 to 14%, but was still higher than that of credit bonds and convertible bonds [6][56]. - **Interest - rate bonds**: Fixed - income + funds concentrated on policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds. The heavy - position scale of policy - financial bonds reached 187.7 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 35.9 billion yuan, accounting for 61% of interest - rate bonds. The heavy - position scale of treasury bonds was 115.1 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 37% of interest - rate bonds. The main terms for treasury - bond allocation were within 3 years and over 7 years [6][59]. - **Credit bonds**: Fixed - income + funds preferred Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds, which accounted for about half of the heavy - position scale of credit bonds. Compared with Q3, fixed - income + funds mainly increased their positions in Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds and other financial bonds, and significantly reduced their positions in general credit bonds, especially urban investment bonds [7][66]. - Fixed - income + funds' preference for ultra - long - term credit bonds declined, with the heavy - position scale remaining at a low level of around 2.5 billion yuan in the past two quarters [7][70]. - For urban investment bonds, fixed - income + funds reduced their positions in urban investment bonds with implicit ratings of AA+ and AA, and the holding term was mainly within 3 years. The proportion of holdings of AA and below decreased to 57%. Zhejiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were the provinces with the largest scale of urban investment bond allocation, and the scale of position reduction in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Xinjiang was relatively large [7][76]. - For industrial bonds, fixed - income + funds mainly allocated public - utility bonds, and their preference for medium - and long - term industrial bonds increased. The heavy - position scale of public - utility bonds was the largest, and the proportion of medium - and long - term holdings (4 - 5 years and over 5 years) increased, while the proportion of holdings within 2 years decreased [85]. - In Q4, fixed - income + funds repurchased Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds, with a strengthened preference for 3 - 5 - year holdings. The proportion of Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds of small and medium - sized banks in the total Tier 2 capital and perpetual bonds further dropped below 10%, and about half of the Tier 2 capital and perpetual bond holdings were concentrated in the 3 - 5 - year period [89].

国开利差滞后修复。 1 月中下旬以来，债券市场整体迎来一轮修复，但品种间表现分化：国债反弹相对顺畅，而国开债走势偏弱，二者之 间的利差不仅未见收敛，反而有所走阔，反映本轮反弹过程中，国开修复滞后。 修复滞后的几个原因。 首先，交易盘追涨意愿克制，大行对长端国债需求旺盛，对国开利差修复形成约束。以"交易盘与配置盘力量对比" 来刻画两类机构的边际影响力，该指标与国开-国债利差走势具有较清晰的同步性：在交易盘相对走弱、配置盘占主 导的时期，利差往往趋于走阔。回顾历史，这一结构变化大致自去年 8–9 月开始显现，并在今年 1 月的反弹行情中 未见明显逆转，这一特征不利于国开利差的修复。进一步看，配置盘方面，大行在本轮反弹过程中对国债老债集中买 入，提供了长端国债的稳定承接力量，而国开则缺乏同等力度的配置需求，从而对长端国开利差的修复形成压制。 反弹中资金选择二永利差作为主要进攻方向。第二个原因在于，在交易情绪回暖阶段，本轮行情更多围绕二永等信用 利差展开。以 3 年 AAA-二级资本债为例，这一轮反弹中，其信用利差由阶段性高点约 33bp 压缩至最低约 19bp，下行 幅度接近 12bp。 央行买债的边际影响。央行购 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a decrease in prices, with LME copper down 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton and Shanghai copper down 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. Supply-side indicators show an increase in copper inventory and a decrease in processing fees, while demand remains stable due to ongoing orders from major clients [1][14] - The aluminum market has seen LME aluminum prices drop by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with domestic aluminum rod inventory increasing. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing has decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] - Gold prices have risen by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is showing strong volatility, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and inflation concerns [3][16] - The rare earth sector is witnessing price increases, particularly in praseodymium and neodymium, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton, reflecting a decline in production and market adjustments. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] - Cobalt prices have decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term due to structural shortages [5][53] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, with an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in processing fees. The operating rate for copper processing is expected to decline as the industry approaches the Chinese New Year [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with an increase in aluminum rod inventory. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] Precious Metals - Gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is experiencing strong volatility [3][16] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium increased, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] Lithium - Lithium prices decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term [5][53]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach in the current cryptocurrency market due to low sentiment and recommends focusing on companies with strong earnings during the earnings season or those transitioning from mining to AI data centers [4][24]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decline, with a total market capitalization of $2.17 trillion, down 23.6% from the previous week. Bitcoin's lowest price during the week was $60,074, and Ethereum's was $1,749. The fear and greed index indicates extreme fear at a score of 8 [1][10][11]. - Tether reported record highs in its Q4 2025 report, with a market capitalization of $187.3 billion and a user base of 535 million, marking an increase of over 30 million users for eight consecutive quarters [21]. - The decentralized telecom network World Mobile has expanded its coverage to over seven countries, with more than 3 million daily active users and over 100,000 AirNodes deployed [17][18]. Market Review - The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 23.6% this week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices dropping by 16.1% and 23.6%, respectively [10][14]. - The average holding price for Bitcoin is approximately $55,174, which is below the short-term investors' cost basis [11][12]. - Global cryptocurrency trading volume increased by 60.2% week-on-week, with Coinbase's spot trading volume rising by 113.9% [15][16]. Company News - Bullish reported a record digital asset sales figure of $64.3 billion for Q4 2025, with a net loss of $560 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $44.5 million [22]. - Gemini announced a 25% workforce reduction and plans to focus solely on the U.S. market, exiting the UK, EEA, and Australia [22]. - Cipher Mining plans to issue senior secured notes to raise $2 billion for data center construction [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining caution in the current market and suggests monitoring companies that perform well during earnings season or those transitioning to AI data centers, such as HUT 8 and IREN Limited [4][24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the transportation sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as SF Holding and China Southern Airlines [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express business revenue for 2025 reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is seeing improvements with DSV's integration of DB Schenker progressing ahead of schedule, and a focus on smart logistics is recommended for Hai Chen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is witnessing a slight decrease in flight volumes, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from manufacturers. Recommendations include China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4]. - The shipping sector shows a mixed performance, with container shipping rates declining while oil transport indices are on the rise, indicating a potential increase in oil transport demand [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with significant increases in truck traffic on highways and a notable rise in the dividend yield of major public road operators [6][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.8% during the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.2% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping Ports - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% week-on-week and down 20.7% year-on-year. The Shanghai export container shipping index (SCFI) was at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% week-on-week and down 33.2% year-on-year [21]. 2.2 Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a 6% increase and international routes a 9% increase [56]. 2.3 Rail and Road - In December 2025, national railway passenger volume was 323 million, up 8.52% year-on-year, while road freight volume was 3.797 billion tons, up 0.62% year-on-year [77][79].

Group 1 - The global asset market has entered a "Risk-off" mode due to multiple events, including a cooling job market and a retreat in AI industry narratives, leading to a significant decline in cryptocurrency markets and a drop in US Treasury yields [3][11] - There has been a noticeable shift from growth to value in global stock markets, driven by concerns over AI technology evolving from an enabler to a disruptor, resulting in a sell-off of major software stocks [3][13] - The earnings signals from key tech stocks during the earnings season, such as AMD, ARM, and Qualcomm, have not met optimistic market expectations, raising doubts about their ability to deliver on capital expenditure commitments [3][18] Group 2 - The current concerns in the capital market regarding the AI industry are indicative of the first phase of the trading cycle nearing its end, as the market begins to reassess the true impact of AI technology on various industries [4][26] - The differentiation within the AI sector has already begun, with hardware and software performance diverging since Q4 2025, marking the start of a broader market style shift [4][31] - The capital market is expected to transition into a second phase where the focus will shift back to the actual technological impacts of AI, leading to increased volatility and differentiation among sectors [4][27] Group 3 - The domestic A-share market has also experienced a significant style shift, with domestic demand-related assets outperforming, despite external demand not showing signs of weakness [5][40] - Recent data indicates a strong performance in South Korea's exports and a record high in China's port container throughput, suggesting a synchronized recovery between internal and external demand [5][48] - The consumption and financial sectors in China are showing high potential returns, with specific attention to the stabilization of premium liquor prices and the upcoming consumption data post-holiday [5][46] Group 4 - As the global AI industry cycle transitions into its second phase, the focus is shifting towards tangible assets that cannot be easily disrupted by AI, with a revaluation of global physical assets beginning [5][53] - Specific investment recommendations include revaluing physical assets based on low inventory and demand stabilization, as well as focusing on sectors like energy, metals, and Chinese equipment exports that are positioned for recovery [5][53] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of capital markets and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, highlighting opportunities in non-bank financials [5][53]

帮我 AI 贸易已经成为了全球贸易中不可忽视的重要部分。中国作为全球最大的 AI 商品出口国，美国作为全球 AI 投 资扩张的领头羊，美国 AI 投资能否维持高位决定了今年中国出口高景气度能否延续。同时，BIS 研究显示，在 此前几次投资热潮退坡时（如 90 年代互联网泡沫、2010 年前后的页岩投资），美国 GDP 增速降幅均超过 1 个百 分点，如果美国 AI 泡沫破裂，负面溢出效应或导致美国经济大幅回落进而拖累全球经济和一般贸易。 风险提示 本文对 AI 贸易商品的数据部分基于估算数据，估算方法或存在一定偏差。 AI 投资不确定性较高，AI 投资带来的 AI 贸易不确定性也在提升，关注 AI 投资变化对贸易的影响。 全球 AI 贸易政策正在发生较大变化，美国对等关税等对 AI 贸易的影响也还在延续，关注政策变化对 AI 贸易的影响。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 AI 投资已成为全球经济不可忽视的部分。2025 年前三季度，广义 AI 投资拉动美国实际 GDP 同比增速 0.8 个百 分点，成为美国经济增长的重要引擎。BIS 数据显示，从 2022 年开始 AI 投资在美 ...

投资建议 见"股票组合"。 行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2026/2/2-2026/2/6）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 0.38%，在申万 31 个一级行业分 类中排名第 11；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 1.33%。2026 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 6.72%，在申万 31 个一 级行业分类中排名第 9；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.29%。 核心观点 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 工程机械全球大周期向上，土方内外销超预期。根据中国工程机械工业协会，2026 年 1 月销售各类挖掘机 1870 8 台，同比增长 49.5%。其中国内销量 8723 台，同比增长 61.4%；出口量 9985 台，同比增长 40.5%，土方内外 销超预期。25Q4 卡特彼勒工程机械板块北美、EAME、亚太、拉丁美洲收入增速分别为+23%、+18%、-7%、+6%，2 5Q3 北美、EAME、亚太、拉丁美洲收入增速分别为+8%、+6%、+3%、-1%，工程机械板块北美、EAME 地区加速增 长，拉美转正，中国工程机械内外销加速叠加海外龙头 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the durable consumer goods industry [1] Core Insights - The durable consumer goods industry is experiencing growth driven by various segments, including trendy toys, new tobacco products, home furnishings, and AI technologies [1][2][3] - The report highlights the expansion of brands like Bubble Mart and the collaboration with Takara Tomy to enhance IP development in the trendy toy sector [1][8] - The new tobacco segment shows long-term growth potential, with companies like Philip Morris International reporting significant revenue increases [2][14] - The home furnishings market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing market, while new housing remains under pressure [15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to regulatory changes in the personal care and AI glasses sectors, which are expected to reshape marketing and distribution strategies [19][23] Summary by Relevant Sections Trendy Toys - Bubble Mart is expanding into the Japanese market and collaborating with Takara Tomy to enhance its IP development [1][8] - The company reported that it aims to sell over 400 million products across all IP categories in 2025, with significant growth in registered members and store numbers [9] New Tobacco - Philip Morris International's revenue reached $40.6 billion in 2025, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase, driven by a 15% increase in new tobacco product sales [14] - The market for heated tobacco products is expected to accelerate, despite potential regulatory challenges in various countries [2][13] Home Furnishings - The report notes a significant increase in transaction volumes in the second-hand housing market, with a 754.6% year-on-year increase in certain cities [15] - Export figures for furniture show a decline, but there is potential for recovery driven by policy support and improved consumer sentiment [16] AI and Personal Care - New regulations are set to transform marketing strategies in the personal care sector, emphasizing compliance and professional channels [19][21] - The AI glasses market is witnessing innovation, with companies like Oakley and Meta launching new products, indicating a growing trend towards smart technology integration [23] 3D Printing - The report highlights advancements in 3D printing technology, particularly in multi-color printing solutions, which are expected to enhance efficiency and usability in consumer applications [35] Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The electric bicycle market is facing challenges due to policy changes and high base effects, while the motorcycle sector is showing positive trends due to regulatory relaxations [36][37]