业绩简评 公司于 1 月 20 日公布 2025Q4 运营情况。安踏主品牌 Q4 零售额同 比录得低单位数负增长；FILA 同比录得中单位数正增长；其他品 牌（不含 2024 年 1 月 1 日后新加入品牌）同比录得 35-40%正増 长。2025 全年安踏主品牌同比录得低单位数正增长；FILA 同比录 得中单位数正增长；所有其他品牌同比录得 45-50%正增长。 经营分析 主品牌 Q4 流水小幅下降，全年流水实现稳健增长。安踏主品牌 Q4 零售流水同比小幅下滑，主要受外部需求与竞争环境恶化影响，同 时电商业务仍处于调整期。经营质量方面，线下折扣率稳定在约七 一折，线上折扣率较同比收窄 2pct 至约五五折，库销比略高于 5 倍（健康区间）。新业态门店表现突出，冠军系列年末门店达 150 家、流水破 10 亿；灯塔店效率较普通门店高出超 60%。海外业务 持续推进，美国及东南亚等市场加速布局，为中长期增长提供支 撑。25 全年安踏主品牌流水同比低单位数增长，符合指引。 FILA 流水稳健增长，26 年有望延续增长势头。FILAQ4 实现中单位 数增长，且较前三季度环比加速,其中 FILA 大货线下实现高单位 ...

25Q1-Q3 整体收入同比+30%，25 年 3 月公司单月发货量破百台设 备、创下历史新高，彰显行业高景气。二期园区产能约为一期的 2 倍以上，极限产能可通过优化排产提升至 1500 台以上。公司于 2025 年 8 月递交发行 H 股股票的申请，9 月发行境外上市股份（H 股）备案申请材料获中国证监会接收。 泛半导体：先进封装直写光刻，明确受益 CoWoS-L 趋势 相较传统的掩膜版光刻技术，直写光刻技术无需掩膜版，具备成本 更低、效率更高的技术优势，适配 CoWoS-L 工艺。根据公司官方公 众号数据，其预估台积电 CoWoS-L 产能占比将逐年提升。目前公 司 WLP 系列产品已助力多家先进封装头部厂商实现类 CoWoS-L 产 品的量产，并预计于 26H2 进入量产爬坡阶段，WLP 系列（公司先 进封装直写光刻设备）目前在手订单金额已突破 1 亿元。 潜力业务：激光钻孔新军，静待客户导入进展 三菱在激光钻孔设备中的市场份额较高，随着本轮 PCB 企业资本 开支集中在 HDI 方向，我们预计国产激光钻孔设备供应商存在替 代机会，目前国产供应商包括大族激光、芯碁微装等，其中芯碁微 装激光钻孔设备已进入 ...

- The report discusses the performance of the four major stock index futures contracts (IF, IC, IM, IH) over the past week, highlighting that IC had the largest increase of 2.09%, while IH experienced the largest decline of -1.65%[3][11] - The average trading volume of all contracts increased compared to the previous week, with IM showing the largest increase of 46.74% and IH the smallest at 23.37%[3][11] - The basis rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH as of last Friday's close were -0.183%, -0.271%, -0.650%, and 0.151%, respectively, with IF and IM narrowing their discounts, IC deepening its discount, and IH expanding its premium[3][11] - The intertemporal spread rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were at the 54.00%, 9.70%, 8.00%, and 41.50% percentiles of their historical distributions since 2019, with IF and IH at normal levels and IC and IM at relatively low levels[4][12] - The report calculates the theoretical arbitrage opportunities for IF contracts, indicating that with an annualized return of 5% and 21 trading days remaining, the basis rate for positive and negative arbitrage would need to reach 0.74% and -1.35%, respectively, but no such opportunities currently exist[4][12] - Dividend forecasts for the next year suggest that the impact on index points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices will be 80.98, 92.22, 72.38, and 69.57, respectively[4][12] - The report outlines a method for predicting dividend points based on historical dividend patterns, using formulas that incorporate EPS, payout ratios, and component stock weights[58][59][60]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Hongdu Aviation (600316.SH) as a first-time coverage [3]. Core Views - Hongdu Aviation is a leading domestic manufacturer of military training aircraft, benefiting from the rising demand for both training and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) [1][2]. - The company has a comprehensive product line that includes primary, basic, and advanced training aircraft, positioning it uniquely in the market [1][2]. - The global military trade environment is improving, with the company expected to see significant growth in international sales, particularly with its K-8 training aircraft [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hongdu Aviation is recognized as a cradle for training aircraft in China, integrating research, production, and operations, with a focus on both training aircraft and defense products [14]. - The company has undergone asset restructuring to enhance its core competencies in training aircraft and missile production [14][17]. Market Position and Demand - The company is a rare full-spectrum training aircraft assembly unit in China, poised to benefit from the upward trend in the training aircraft and UAV markets [1][2]. - The global demand for training aircraft is increasing, with many countries seeking cost-effective solutions for pilot training [2][45]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 77.0 billion, 119.6 billion, and 159.1 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +46.6%, +55.4%, and +33.0% [3][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.2 billion, 2.0 billion, and 2.7 billion RMB, reflecting significant growth rates of +203.8%, +70.4%, and +34.6% [3][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company offers integrated training solutions that include pilot training, ground crew training, and operational support, enhancing its competitive edge in military exports [2][3]. - Hongdu Aviation's "air-to-surface" missile production capabilities provide a significant advantage, simplifying the development and certification processes for military equipment [2][3]. International Sales Growth - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 137% in foreign revenue from 2020 to 2024, indicating a strong position in the international military trade market [2][3][26]. - The K-8 training aircraft has captured a 26.3% market share in the global mid-to-high level training aircraft segment, establishing a solid foundation for future exports [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in its performance, with a projected net profit of RMB 2.45-2.65 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.8%-15.51% [2][4]. - The significant quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 2025 is attributed to the recovery of downstream demand and the growth of new business areas such as commercial aerospace [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the full year of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of RMB 2.45-2.65 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%-15.51% [2]. - In Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit of RMB 88.16-108 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%-30.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 123%-173% [2][4]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company focuses on its core business and aims for a dual-driven strategy that integrates manufacturing and services [2]. - It is actively expanding into new sectors, including commercial aerospace, and has signed a project cooperation agreement with the Hangzhou Yunqi Town Management Committee, planning to invest at least RMB 300 million [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 2.57 billion, RMB 3.31 billion, and RMB 3.99 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 12.08%, 28.85%, and 20.56% [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 35, 27, and 23 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The company is positioned to benefit from high-growth sectors such as military, semiconductor, new energy, and commercial aerospace [4]. - Continuous innovation in testing equipment and expanding laboratory qualifications are key strategies to enhance its market presence [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China travel retail business for up to $395 million (approximately RMB 2.75 billion) is expected to enhance the company's coverage of high-end consumer segments and strengthen its competitive advantage in the Greater China region [2][3] - The strategic partnership with LVMH aims to expand the company's channel advantages through collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3] Financial Projections - The audited revenue and net profit for DFS Greater China are projected to be RMB 4.149 billion and RMB 128 million for 2024, respectively, and RMB 2.754 billion and RMB 133 million for the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The adjusted EPS forecasts for the company are set at RMB 1.89, RMB 2.64, and RMB 3.34 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50.84, 36.39, and 28.79 [4] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -16.38% for 2024 and -3.08% for 2025, followed by a recovery of 27.95% in 2026 and 15.46% in 2027 [8]

- The report discusses a rotation model that monitors micro-cap stocks and the "Mao Index" (茅指数). The rotation model uses the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the Mao Index and their respective 20-day closing price slopes. When the slopes diverge and one is positive, the model suggests investing in the index with the positive slope to anticipate potential style shifts[17][23][24] - Timing indicators for micro-cap stocks are based on the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and the volatility crowding degree (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator reaches its threshold, a closing signal is triggered[23] - The macro timing model evaluates economic growth and monetary liquidity signals. For January, the model recommends a 60% equity allocation, with economic growth and liquidity signals both at 60%. The model's year-to-date return is 14.59%, compared to 26.87% for the Wind All-A Index[44][45][46] - Eight major stock selection factors are tracked, including quality, growth, and consensus expectations, which performed well in the past week. Quality and growth factors showed IC averages of 14.07% and 8.69%, respectively, while reversal and value factors underperformed[47][48][49] - Convertible bond selection factors are constructed based on the relationship between the underlying stock and the convertible bond. Factors include parity, floor premium rate, and financial quality of the underlying stock. Among these, the financial quality of the underlying stock achieved a high IC average last week[56][57][58]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate differential deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][16]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed marginal easing, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced, initially tightening and then loosening. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds widened [1][23]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continued to rise, with the volatility of the CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index all increasing. Sectors such as military, media, computing, retail, and consumer services had trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][28]. - The volatility of the CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index increased, while the volatility of various sectors remained below the 80th historical percentile [2][35]. - Market liquidity indicators improved, but all sectors remained below the 50th historical percentile [2][40]. Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, computing, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors had the highest research activity, while banking, real estate, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals, and retail sectors saw a month-on-month increase in research activity [3][47]. Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 were adjusted, with increases in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, light industry, electronics, and real estate [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 for 2026/2027 were raised, while the forecasts for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were adjusted up and down, respectively [4][23]. - Mid-cap and small-cap growth sectors saw upward adjustments in their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027, while mid-cap and small-cap value sectors were adjusted down [4][27]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity rebounded, continuing to net buy A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors such as computing, home appliances, and non-bank financials increased, while it decreased in communication, electronics, and electric new energy sectors [5][32]. - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, the main net purchases were in TMT, machinery, and military sectors, while net sales occurred in electric new energy, construction, and agriculture sectors [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level since November 2025. The net purchases were mainly in TMT, non-bank financials, and electric new energy sectors, while net sales occurred in building materials and petroleum and petrochemicals [6][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in the pharmaceutical, construction, and coal sectors increased month-on-month [6][38]. Hot Stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list continued to rise, with the total trading volume and its proportion of total A-share trading both increasing. The military, media, and automotive sectors had relatively high and rising trading volumes on this list [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions and ETF Trends - Active equity funds significantly reduced their positions, while ETFs experienced substantial net redemptions. Active equity funds mainly increased positions in petroleum and petrochemicals, real estate, and coal sectors, while reducing positions in TMT, military, and machinery sectors [8][46]. - The correlation of active equity funds with small-cap growth and large/small-cap value increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth and mid-cap value decreased [8][48]. - New equity fund establishment scales increased, with both active and passive funds seeing a rise in establishment [8][50]. - ETFs tracking indices such as the Shanghai 300, STAR 50, and Shanghai 50 saw major net redemptions, while those tracking computing, non-ferrous metals, and media sectors saw major net purchases [8][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The duration of niche financial bonds has generally increased. As of January 16, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.10 years and 2.22 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of Tier 2 capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.92 years, 3.62 years, and 1.86 years respectively. The duration of general commercial financial bonds was at a relatively low historical level, while that of Tier 2 capital bonds was at a relatively high historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.76 years, 2.41 years, 3.94 years, and 1.27 years respectively, all slightly longer than the previous week. The historical quantile of the duration of insurance company bonds was at a relatively high level [9]. - The ticket duration congestion index has decreased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index has declined. This week, it decreased compared to last week and is currently at the 36.6% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - Variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.10 years and 2.22 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of Tier 2 capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.92 years, 3.62 years, and 1.86 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.76 years, 2.41 years, 3.94 years, and 1.27 years respectively, all slightly longer than the previous week [9]. 3.2 Variety Microscope 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.26 years. The duration of urban investment bonds in prefecture - level cities in Guangdong extended to 4.09 years, while that of provincial - level urban investment bonds in Shandong shortened to around 1.09 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in prefecture - level cities in Guangdong, district - level in Beijing, and prefecture - level in Hunan exceeded 90%, and the duration of urban investment bonds in prefecture - level cities in Anhui approached the highest level since 2021 [16]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds shortened compared to the previous week, generally around 1.86 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry extended to 1.66 years, while that of the steel industry shortened to 1.52 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a relatively low historical quantile, while those of the building materials, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology industries were at relatively high historical quantiles [21]. 3.2.3 Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.86 years, at the 25.4% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of Tier 2 capital bonds shortened to 3.92 years, at the 73.3% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 3.62 years, at the 60.1% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [23]. 3.2.4 Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 91.8%, 67.3%, 67.7%, and 70.1% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of all of them increased compared to the previous week [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term suppressing factors in the bond market have weakened, but the sentiment repair is limited. The bond market shows a pattern of "stable short - end and weak long - end". The "see - saw" effect of stocks, bonds, and commodities has eased, but the bond market sentiment is still constrained by policy and fundamental factors [2][7]. - The central bank is prioritizing structural monetary policy tools, and the window for aggregate easing is expected to be postponed. Recent economic data shows marginal improvement, weakening the urgency of aggregate easing [3][9]. - Historically, when aggregate policies are absent in the first quarter, there are usually increased fluctuations in capital prices, greater upward pressure on long - term interest rates, and a longer adjustment cycle. However, this year, due to the conservative market expectations for monetary easing and the central bank's rich liquidity management tools, the short - end may be more stable than in historical "absence years" [4][5][13]. - The market may continue to favor short - term bonds as the downward trend of fundamental high - frequency signals slows down, and the growth rate of medium - and long - term corporate loans has rebounded for the first time after 30 months of decline [5][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance and Influencing Factors - This week, the bond market continued the pattern of "stable short - end and weak long - end". The "see - saw" effect of stocks, bonds, and commodities has eased, but the bond market sentiment has not been significantly repaired due to the postponement of aggregate policy easing and concerns about the macro - fundamentals [2][7]. - The central bank highlighted the implementation and application of structural monetary policy tools at the press conference, and the aggregate easing window is expected to be postponed. Recent economic data, such as December's PMI, inflation, export, and credit data, have shown marginal improvement, weakening the urgency of aggregate easing [3][9]. Historical Analysis of Aggregate Policy Absence in Q1 - From 2019 to 2025, the first quarter is usually an active period for the implementation of aggregate monetary policies. Years without aggregate policy support in Q1 include 2021, 2025, and most of 2023. - In terms of capital price performance, in years with aggregate policy implementation in Q1, the average maximum upward amplitude of the 5 - day MA of DR001 was about 95BP. In contrast, in years without aggregate policy support, this amplitude reached an average of 147BP, with significantly increased fluctuations [4][13][16]. - Regarding long - term interest rates, in years with aggregate policy support in Q1, the average maximum upward amplitude of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate was about 15BP, and the upward cycle lasted about 21 days on average. In policy - absent years, the average maximum upward amplitude increased to 20BP, and the adjustment time extended to about 30 days [4][17][19]. Current Market Situation: Similarities and Differences - Similarity: When aggregate policies are absent in Q1, the upward pressure on long - term interest rates tends to increase, as bond supply usually increases at the beginning of the year, and pro - growth policies are successively introduced, which together with policy constraints put pressure on interest rates [20]. - Difference: This year, the market's expectation of broad - money policy is not strong, and with the support of the central bank's rich liquidity injection tools, the stability of capital prices in Q1 is expected to be enhanced compared with previous years, so the short - end may perform differently from historical "absence years" [20][23]. Market Strategy - The downward trend of fundamental high - frequency signals continues to slow down, and the growth rate of medium - and long - term corporate loans has rebounded for the first time after 30 months of decline. Although there are base - effect disturbances, the sustainability of this rebound should not be underestimated. The market shows signs of a phased rebound but may continue to favor short - term bonds as fundamental risks remain [5][29]. Weekly Market Review (January 11 - 17, 2026) - **Funds**: The net reverse - repurchase investment this week was 8128 billion yuan, and 6 - month repurchase operations had a net investment of 3000 billion yuan. The capital market tightened marginally, with the operating centers of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rising by 10bp, 6bp, and 8bp to 1.36%, 1.51%, and 1.54% respectively compared with last week [30][31]. - **Bonds**: Most Treasury bond yields declined this week, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield falling 5bp to 1.24% and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling 4bp to 1.84%. The 10 - 1 - year term spread widened by 1bp to 60bp. The bond market sentiment improved [32]. - **Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators**: Among the ten interest rate synchronous indicators, 6 sent "positive" signals this week. Compared with last week, the growth rate of medium - and long - term corporate loan balances sent a "negative" signal, while the copper - gold ratio sent a "positive" signal [41].