Group 1 - As of January 31, 2026, over 3,006 listed companies in A-shares disclosed their performance forecasts for 2025, representing 55.1% of all A-shares, slightly higher than 53.4% in 2024 [10][12] - The forecasted positive performance rate for 2025 is 36.7%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from 2024, while the negative performance rate decreased from 66.2% in 2024 to 63.3% [14][15] - The proportion of companies expecting profit increases has risen significantly, with the share of profit-increasing companies reaching 21.1%, indicating a potential recovery in profit growth [15][18] Group 2 - The performance forecast rates for major indices such as CSI 300, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are around 60%, primarily driven by profit increases, indicating a recovery trend among large and mid-cap companies [18][19] - In contrast, the CSI 1000 index has a positive performance rate of only 37%, with a high proportion of companies still facing losses, reflecting weaker overall profitability [18][19] - The non-bank financial sector shows a high positive performance rate of 88%, with 72% of companies expecting profit increases, while the real estate sector has a low positive performance rate of only 18% [22][24] Group 3 - The analysis of performance changes indicates that AI, overseas exports, anti-involution, and price increases are the core growth drivers for over 40% of high-performing companies [22][24] - The performance of companies benefiting from AI is expanding beyond the tech sector into midstream manufacturing, while more industries are starting to gain from overseas exports [22][24] - The performance of companies in the anti-involution sector is expected to be a key area of focus for 2025, as they show a higher proportion of exceeding performance forecasts [22][24] Group 4 - The distribution of performance growth rates shows a rightward shift in the "U" shape curve, indicating an increase in companies experiencing recovery from difficulties [24][29] - The overall net profit growth rate for A-shares is projected to reach 29.6% year-on-year, with a median growth rate of 12.4%, suggesting a solidifying trend in profitability [29][32] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to maintain high resilience in net profit growth, contrasting with the declines seen in previous years [29][32]

基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 数说公募主动权益基金四季报 ——规模/份额双降、周期/金融配置权重上升 王子薇 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130524010001 王聃聃 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130521100001 2026/2/2 主动权益基金2025年四季报总结 ◼ 基金市场概况：2025年四季度A股在经历了近一年的上涨趋势后开始横盘震荡，宽基指数涨跌互现。风格上，大、中盘价值指数均显著跑赢成长，小 盘成长与价值收益差距不大，大盘价值领跑，反映机构资金在进攻与防守之间切换、风险暴露选择性收敛的同步推进；行业指数方面，四季度申万31 个行业除医药生物、美容护理等9个行业外，其余各行业指数均取得正收益，其中，资源和军工表现较好，医药整体偏弱。主动权益基金规模和份额 下降，发行数量和发行规模小幅提升。 ◼ 基金持仓情况：权益基金平均股票仓位小幅收缩，为88.05%；港股仓位也有所下降。重仓股板块配置方面，权益基金集中增持周期品方向，主要为 稳增长政策托底下宏观预期边际改善、顺周期盈利弹性重新获得资金定价，以及年末时点资金对组合确定性与波动控制要求提升的合力结果，机构在 周期与金融板块抬升配比，同 ...

事件 1 月 30 日，证监会发布《关于修改〈《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》第九条、第十条、第十一条、第十三条、第 四十条、第五十七条、第六十条有关规定的适用意见——证券期货法律适用意见第 18 号〉的决定（征求意见稿）》， 并公开征求意见。 核心内容 战略投资者类型扩围：中长期资金体系全面进场。修订稿明确，全国社保基金、基本养老保险基金、企业（职业）年 金基金、商业保险资金、公募基金、银行理财等机构投资者可以作为战略投资者。同时，在规则上将该类投资者界定 为资本投资者，将其他实业投资者界定为产业投资者。"产业战投"提供技术、市场等硬资源，"资本战投"则需发挥 改善治理、优化决策、推动整合等软实力。 2025 年出台的《中长期资金入市方案》提到，"允许公募基金、商业保险资金、基本养老保险基金、企（职）业年金 基金、银行理财等作为战略投资者参与上市公司定增"，推动提升保险、公募、养老金、理财等权益投资比例。本次 修订将"入市方案"的原则安排正式嵌入再融资法律适用意见，从操作层面打通中长期资金参与再融资的供给端，大 幅扩展战投的资金来源；同时，与"并购六条"中鼓励发行股份购买资产、配套融资和战投参与的安排形成组 ...

过去一周，国内主要市场指数上涨，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为 1.13%、0.09%、- 2.55%和-2.55%。 微盘股指标监控：轮动策略方面，由于目前微盘股对茅指数的相对净值为 2.33，仍高于其 243 日均线（1.87）；但万 得微盘股 20 日收盘价斜率为正，而茅指数斜率收负。量价轮动子策略部分仓位切换回微盘股指数；而从 M1 高点轮动 的角度来看，12 月份 M1 指标的 6 个月移动平均值已经下行，M1 轮动子策略中期配置从微盘股切换至茅指数。所以综 合两个子策略来看目前轮动策略处于均衡配置。而从中期微盘股择时角度来看，目前风控信号还没触发。对于持有微 盘板块投资者建议做好风险控制，以及密切跟踪相对净值、动量及中期风险指标的动态。 过去一周，国内政策端围绕制度松绑与内需提质进行发力。 一方面，地产供给侧的监管硬约束迎来破局，监管部门 取消了房企每月上报"三道红线"指标的硬性要求，这一举措意味着政策逻辑已从过去几年的"高压去杠杆"果断转向"信 用修复"，通过给予房企更大的财务自主权来换取市场流动性的内生性恢复，这将直接利好地产链的资金面改善；另一 方 ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数继续回落，中美利差"倒挂"程度继续加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率分别回升/回落，通胀预期回升。 离岸美元流动性边际收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回升，主要指数的波动率均回升。有色、传媒、军工、化工、钢铁等板块的交易热度均处于 90%分 位数以上。军工板块波动率处于 80%分位数以上。 机构调研： 银行、电子、机械、计算机、汽车等板块调研热度居前，银行、石油石化、机械、有色、建材等板块的调研热度环比 仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 26/27 年净利润预测继续同时被上调。行业上，有色、通信、商贸零售、家电、房地产等 26/27 年净利润预测 均被上调。指数上，创业板指、沪深 300、上证 50 的 26/27 年净利润预测均被上调，中证 500 的 26/27 年净利润预测 均被下调。风格上，大盘/中盘/小盘成长、大盘价值的 26/27 年的净利润预测均被上调，中盘/小盘价值则均被下调。 北上活跃度有所回升，重新净卖出 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在非银、有色、食品饮料等板块的买卖总额之比上升， ...

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+3.98%到 13650.5 美元/吨，沪铜+2.31%到 10.37 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，进口铜精矿加工费周 度指数跌至-49.84 美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比上周四减少 2.24%，总库存同比去年同期增加 4.97 万吨，而去年同期正处于春节假期阶段。冶炼端，据 SMM，本周废产阳极板企业开工率为 75.07%，环比上升 2.90 个 百分点。预计下周开工率环比下降 3.31 个百分点至 71.76%。消费端，据 SMM，本周铜线缆企业开工率 59.46%，环比 增加 0.75 个百分点。企业本周生产多依托前期留存订单有序推进，生产节奏与前期基本保持一致，未出现大幅波动， 行业整体生产稳定性较强。分行业来看，国网订单仍有释放，叠加市场零散小额订单，同时为开工提供辅助支撑。但 周尾铜价再创历史新高，抑制下游提货积极性，叠加春节假期临近，伴随市场需求有所走弱，部分企业已开始筹划提 前放假事宜，故预计下周开工率环比下降 2.82 个百分点至 56.64%。本周漆包线行业开机率回升至 83.33%，主要因铜 价快速上涨带动下游集中下单，新增订单增加 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery in the near term [2][3][13]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. The overall production stability in the copper industry is noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14]. - Aluminum prices saw a 1.75% increase to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in aluminum processing rates, indicating a shift towards the off-peak season [3][15]. - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16]. - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][32][34]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Copper inventory decreased by 2.24% week-on-week, while total inventory increased by 4.97% year-on-year [2][14]. - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises rose to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The overall aluminum processing rate recorded a decline to 59.4% [3][15]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity remains high, but the operating rate decreased by 1.66% to 77.31% [3][15]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a notable rise in SPDR gold holdings remaining stable at 1,086.53 tons [4][16]. - The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold price fluctuations, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments [4][16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose to 748,700 CNY per ton, reflecting a strong demand outlook. The report notes a 7% year-on-year increase in rare earth permanent magnet exports [5][32][34]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector is poised for growth, driven by easing export restrictions and increased global demand [5][32][34]. Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, with strategic reserves being a focus in the U.S. market, indicating a potential for continued price support [5][36]. Tin - Tin prices showed a slight decrease of 0.03%, but the report maintains a positive long-term outlook due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [5][37]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 7.15% to 171,000 CNY per ton, with production slightly declining. The report highlights a robust demand outlook despite recent price fluctuations [5][57]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.8% to 445,000 CNY per ton, with supply constraints expected to support price stability in the near term [5][58].

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数继续回升至 57% 本期机构杠杆、政策利差、债基止盈压力、股债比价、全市场换手率分位置上升 48、18、18、16、12 个百分点，TL/T 多空比、商品比价分位置也上升 11 个百分点。但是基金-中小行买入量、长期国债成交占比、上市公司理财买入量分 位值分别下降 33、18、15 个百分点。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、1/10Y 国债换手率、TL/T 多空 比、债基止盈压力。 ①交易热度中，TL/T 多空比、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值分别上升 11、12、48 个百分点，长期国债成交占比分 位值下降 18 个百分点，因此交易热度分位均值上升 8 个百分点。②机构行为类指标中，债基止盈压力分位值上升 18 个百分点，其余指标分位值多不同程度回落，其中基金-中小行买入量分位值大幅下降 33 个百分点，因此机构行为分 位均值回落 5 个百分点。③市场利差分位值下降 4 个百分点，政策利差分位值则大幅回升 18 个百分点，利差分位均 值上升 7 个百分点。④股债、商品、不动产比价分位值分别上升 16、11、8 个百分点，比价分位均值上升 9 个百分点。 长期 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on themes of intelligence and overseas expansion, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies like BYD and Geely Automobile, as well as in the intelligent and robotics sectors such as Li Auto-W and Xpeng Motors-W [3][16]. Core Insights - Tesla is shifting its focus from traditional vehicle production to AI and robotics, planning to stop the production of Model S and Model X to allocate resources for the Optimus humanoid robot, with a target production capacity of 1 million units annually by 2026 [1][13]. - Li Auto is restructuring its R&D department to enhance its humanoid robot development, indicating a strong commitment to AI competition and innovation in robotics [2][14]. - The passenger car market has shown weak sales performance in early 2026, but there is optimism for recovery in Q1 2026 due to anticipated policy support and seasonal demand [2][15]. Industry Data Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08%, while the automotive index decreased by 5.08%, ranking 29th among 31 sectors [4][17]. - In the second week of January 2026, wholesale passenger car sales were 359,000 units, down 28% year-on-year, with a significant increase in new energy vehicle penetration to 50% [5][26]. - In December 2025, the total wholesale passenger car sales were 2.787 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 3.4% [6][34]. Industry Dynamics - Tesla's transition to focus on AI and robotics is part of a broader trend in the automotive industry, with companies like Xpeng and Li Auto also investing heavily in intelligent driving and robotics [1][3][66]. - The report highlights the importance of new energy vehicle exports, which have shown a consistent growth rate of over 20% year-on-year, indicating a long-term trend towards international markets [3][15]. - The introduction of mandatory standards for advanced driver assistance systems in China marks a significant regulatory shift that will impact the automotive landscape [68].

截至 1 月 30 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.26 年、2.43 年，商业银行债中， 二级资本债、银行永续债 以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.00 年、3.52 年、2.05 年，其中二级资本债处于较高历史水平；从其余金 融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.70 年、2.09 年、3.26 年、1.44 年，其 余金融债久期整体较上周有所缩短，租赁公司债久期历史分位数处于较高历史分位。 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.26 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期拉长至 9.16 年，河北省级城投债 成交久期缩短至 1.19 年附近。同时，湖南地级市、江苏区县级、北京区县级城投债久期历史分位数已逾 90%，安徽地 级市城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限与上周持平，总体处于 2.43 年附近，煤炭行业成交久期拉长至 2.25 年，公共事业 行业成交久期缩短至 2.75 年。此外，食品饮料、房地产行业成交久期处于中性历史分位区间，有色金属、医药生物 行业位于较高历史分位。 商业银行债：一般商金债久期拉长至 2.05 ...