Group 1: Market Liquidity and A-Share Performance - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct catalyst for the recent rise in A-shares, with margin trading balances increasing by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume across the A-share market [3][13][22] - Historical data shows that similar situations, where the A-share market rose by nearly 10% over 16 trading days with trading volume expanding by over 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, predominantly at the beginning of the year [3][18][22] - The recent surge in the commercial aerospace index has led to a significant increase in turnover rates and trading volume proportions, indicating a potential structural overheating in the market [3][22] Group 2: AI Impact on Employment and Economic Policy - The U.S. job market continues to face pressure, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs for October and November [4][26][33] - The adoption of AI by large U.S. companies has significantly suppressed employment growth, particularly in the information, finance, and professional services sectors, which have collectively lost 344,000 jobs over the past three years [4][26][33] - The Federal Reserve's extended rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit commodity markets, as inflation concerns related to AI investments are easing [4][40][41] Group 3: Domestic Economic Recovery and Policy Optimization - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial enterprises in December showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a shift from price drag to price support for corporate revenues [5][56] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also risen, with the core CPI maintaining its highest level in five years, reflecting a smoother transmission of prices from enterprises to consumers [5][56] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to enhance corporate profitability, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition [5][62] Group 4: Rebalancing and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for A-shares, driven by improved liquidity and favorable domestic and international economic conditions [6][63] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors benefiting from the recovery of domestic manufacturing and consumer spending [6][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in sectors such as aviation, duty-free, and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer income and tourism recovery [6][63]

本周（2026/1/3-2026/1/9）交运指数持平，沪深 300 指数上涨 2.8%，跑输大盘 2.8%，排名 28/29。交运子板块中航 空公交板块涨幅最大(+2.4%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-3.0%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周邮政快递累计揽收量约 38.4 亿件，环比-5.3%,同比-5.7%；累计投递 量约 38.2 亿件，环比-6.1%，同比-6.7%。反内卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，快递旺季来临，反内卷涨价已兑现。考 虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。低价件减少，头部快递市场份额提升，看好中通快递。 物流：危化品水运价格环比持平，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 3979 点，同比 -7.4%，环比+1.2%。上周液体化学品内贸海运价格为 169 元/吨，同比-8.98%，环比持平。本周对二甲苯（PX）开工率 为 88.9%，环比+0.5pct，同比-2.5pct；甲醇开工率为 86.4%，环比-0.2pct，同比+6.7pct；乙二醇开工率为 64.5%， 环比-0.3%，同比+2.7pct。发力智慧物流，主业受 ...

关注台积电法说会，26 年 AI 展望有望继续强劲增长。台积电将于 1 月 15 日召开法说会，除了对 26Q1 业绩做出 展望外，将对 2026 年需求景气展望与资本支出规划，我们预计在 AI 强需带动下，26Q1 有望淡季不淡，2026 年 AI 展望有望继续强劲增长，受益于英伟达 GPU 价量齐升及 ASIC 需求爆发，台积电将大力扩产 2nm、3nm 制程及 CoWoS 产能，2026 年资本开支也有望超预期。台积电 2025 年 12 月合并营收 3350 亿元新台币，月减 2.5%，年增 20.4%，创历年同期新高，25Q4 营收首度突破 1 万亿元新台币关卡，达到 10460.8 亿元新台币，季增 5.7%，年增 20.5%，创单季新高。台积电先进制程有望自 2026 年起至 2029 年连续四年涨价，看涨 3%至 10%不等，虽然台积 电报价上涨，但是客户仍踊跃预定先进制程产能。台积电 2nm 发展较快，流片量（tape-outs）已达到 3nm 技术 同期的 1.5 倍。存储芯片继续强劲涨价，根据 TrendForce 数据，26Q1 预估 1Q26 一般型 DRAM 合约价季增 55-60 ...

行业观点 预期差一：按发射规划 or 按 GW 目标 当前空天市场发展如火如荼，在计算市场空间时普遍采用大型低轨星座发射计划或太空计算星座的规划来预测， 但由于火箭资源相对紧张，截至 2025 年 12 月，GW 星座在轨卫星数量仅 136 颗，千帆星座在轨卫星数量仅 108 颗，可能导致市场对于卫星发射进度预判低于预期。2025 年 11 月，马斯克表示，将扩大星链 V3 卫星规模，建 设太空数据中心，目标在 4-5 年将通过星舰完成每年 100GW 的数据中心部署。根据新浪财经报道，2025 年 12 月马斯克在 X 平台回应中提到，每年发射 100 万吨卫星，每颗卫星功率 100 千瓦，年度 AI 算力增长 100 吉瓦。 假设 V3 卫星质量 1200-2000 公斤，这意味着需要 50-80 万颗卫星的惊人规模。我们认为，中期随着星舰运营趋 于稳定，且其他科技巨头纷纷发力太空算力，美国有望年发射 20GW 太空算力，按 starlink V3 单星功率 100kw 测算，大约对应 20w 颗 starlink V3 卫星上天，考虑卫星迭代升级后卫星数量可能会有所减少。国内方面，由于 近地轨道资源有限 ...

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+1.94%到 12702.0 美元/吨，沪铜+3.23%到 10.14 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，进口铜精矿加工费周 度指数跌至-45.41 美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比上周四增加 6.29%，连续六周累库，总库存同比 去年同期增长 16.81 万吨。冶炼端，据 SMM，废产阳极板企业开工率为 69.69%，环比上升 3.39 个百分点，但因当前 市场供应宽松，下游冶炼厂需求有限，预计下周开工率环比下降 1.16 个百分点至 68.53%。消费端，据 SMM，本周黄 铜棒行业开工率环比下降 0.61 个百分点至 46.98% 。本周漆包线行业机台开机率环比回落 0.66 个百分点，至 74.87%。 值得关注的是，周内铜价出现小幅回调后，行业订单即刻呈现恢复性增长，尤其是家电端口需求改善延续，带动本周 行业新增订单环比提升 1.77 个百分点。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+2.22%到 3088.00 美元/吨，沪铝+6.13%到 2.43 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，周四国内主流消费地电 解铝锭库存录得 71.4 万吨，较上周日增加 3.0 万吨；截至 ...

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数继续回落至 40% 本期 TL/T 多空比、政策利差、基金-农商买入量分位值分别回落 54、42、27 个百分点，不动产比价、基金超长债买 入量、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值也不同程度下滑。除此外，配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别上升 41、 33 个百分点，全市场换手率、市场利差等指标分位值略有回升。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 20% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量降至 4 个（占比 20%）、位于中性区间的指标数量升至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量仍为 10 个（占比 50%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是， TL/T 多空比、政策利差均由过 热区间降至偏冷区间，基金超长债买入量由中性区间降至偏冷区间；配置盘力度则由中性区间升至过热区间，上市公 司理财买入量、全市场换手率由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 机构行为分位均值上升 TL/T 多空比降至偏冷区间 本期交易热度类指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量占比降至 33%、位于中性区间的指标数量占比升至 50%，位于偏冷 区间的指标数量占比仍为 17%。TL/T 多空比分位值分别下降 5 ...

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周，受节假日因素影响，聊天助手类应用活跃度普遍回落，其中 Kimi 降幅较为显著。行业动态方面，数据与 生态整合加速，微软收购 Osmos 优化 Fabric 平台数据流程，Snowflake 以 10 亿美元收购 Observe 布局 AI 可观 测性；谷歌 Gmail 全面集成 Gemini3 模型重塑邮件体验；阿里高德发布世界模型 FantasyWorld，登顶 WorldScore 榜单并落地低成本 3D 街景生成功能。 - 2025 年 11 月，中国智能手机销量达到约 2600 万台，同比上升约 10%。苹果、小米、华为、荣耀、OPPO 以约 23%、15%、14%、13%、12%的份额排名前五。具体型号方面，苹果 iPhone 17 Pro Max 销量排名第一，iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro 排名第二、第三。11 月国内 PC 市场销量有所回暖，台式机销量约为 152 万台，同比上升约 7%。笔电销量约为 195 万台，同比上升约 4%。 | 海外市场行情 ...

本周行情综述 行业概况：基本面方面，港口贸易商的春旺补库预期驱动铁矿价格上涨，榆林核减 1900 万吨产能引发焦煤反内卷预 期，原料通胀带动本周黑色产业链价格普涨，但钢铁环节价差环比-7.4 元，目前吨亏 38.6 元；行情方面，本周中信 钢铁指数涨幅 3.3%，跑输大盘 0.5%。据 Mysteel 统计，钢企盈利率在 37.7%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳定。 钢铁：本周国内热轧板卷价格趋弱运行、以震荡为主。价格方面，据 Mysteel，全国 24 个主要市场 4.75mm 热轧板卷 均价 3306 元/吨，较 12 月 31 日上调 16 元/吨。库存方面，热轧板卷社会库存 395.24 万吨，周环比+5.04 万吨；重点 城市合计 543.76 万吨。供需方面，宏观预期托底叠加原料走强带动成材跟涨，但现实端高位成交偏少，更多受成本 推动而上移。展望方面，期货冲高后弱现实仍有约束，预计下周热卷价格或窄幅回调。本 1 月 1 日出口许可证+出口 退税联网核查开始实行，或对钢铁买单构成制约，短期关注出口转内销带来的基本面压力。 双焦：本周焦煤价格底部略有抬强。价格方面，据 Mysteel，焦煤价格近期触及阶段性底 ...

行情回顾： 本周（2026.01.05-2026.01.09）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3010.28 点(周环比+0.98%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4758.92 点（周环比+2.79%），深证综指收于 2660.05 点（周环比+5.10%），上证综指收于 4120.43 点（周环比+3.82%），科 创板收于 1475.97 点（周环比+9.80%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 元旦前随着消费端的好转，生猪价格底部回升，节后整体处于供需双弱的情况，目前生猪价格底部震荡。本周生猪出 栏均重为 128.54 公斤/头，生猪出栏均重持续下降，在此期间的过程中猪价相对坚挺，主要系 12 月集团的超量出栏。 从供给端角度来看，1 月份预计出栏总量环比减少，但是由于元旦后供需双弱以及行业二育入场，预计春节前后生猪 价格仍有下探空间。政策端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年下半年猪价上涨。 短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完 全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric new sector, particularly highlighting "space photovoltaic" as the strongest main line for 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining market recognition due to its significant value, inflation trends, and high barriers to entry, with expectations for continued market expansion [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage and lithium battery price increases, as well as the growth potential in wind power and green hydrogen under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3][12]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to create a "rush" for shipments, which may help mitigate the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations in Q1 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The space photovoltaic sector is recognized as a core branch of commercial aerospace, with its advantages becoming increasingly acknowledged by the market [2][6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is set for April 1, 2026, which is anticipated to lead to a surge in shipments to counteract seasonal demand dips [9][10]. - The report suggests actively participating in the space photovoltaic market, as the trend is expected to continue [2][6]. Wind Power - The report forecasts continued growth in domestic wind power installations in 2026, with an expected increase in offshore and onshore installations [12][13]. - The global wind power demand is projected to maintain a long-term positive outlook, driven by AI and electrification trends [13][14]. - Key recommendations include focusing on manufacturers with improved profitability and those benefiting from domestic and international market expansions [12][32]. Lithium Batteries - The report notes a reduction in the export tax rebate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation set for January 1, 2027 [16][17]. - Price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) have seen significant increases, with most customers accepting a processing fee hike of 1,000 yuan per ton [16][20]. - The lithium battery sector is expected to experience continued demand growth, particularly in the context of rising prices and expanding production capacities [18][33]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Bloom Energy has secured a $2.65 billion order, indicating strong demand for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and validating their commercial viability [29][30]. - The report highlights the potential for green hydrogen and related technologies to experience significant growth, driven by policy support and increasing demand [30][31]. - Key investment opportunities include companies involved in green methanol production and hydrogen fuel cell components [30][32]. Grid & Industrial Control - Significant investments in grid infrastructure are planned, with Southern Power Grid expecting over 20% growth in Q1 2026 [23][24]. - The report identifies opportunities in the industrial control sector, particularly for companies involved in robotics and automation technologies [28][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand in the automation market [28][32].