金融资产：不确定性、脆弱性与风格再均衡 在 "AI 的脆弱性+降息预期延后"的担忧下，全球风险偏好再度回落。当下全球金融资产占 GDP 比重本就处于高位 （向上突破 2 倍标准差），历史上看，此时一旦出现基本面的变化风险资产的回撤都会比较剧烈。当下，尽管美国政 府结束停摆，但市场依然处于"数据缺失"的模糊状态，美联储众多官员偏鹰派的表态也使得当下市场对于 12 月的 降息预期概率处于"五五开"的博弈状态。映射至 A 股市场：风格继续再平衡，在核心资产美国科技股徘徊之际，作 为其卫星资产的国内 TMT 板块延续调整，行情则继续由此前的 AI+泛 AI（如存储和电力）扩散至低位的消费资产（本 身隐含了基本面的悲观预期），在资金再平衡的过程中反而出现补涨需求。 海外基本面的矛盾：投资与消费，电力与算力 中国内需：组合中的稳定剂 本周国内经济陆续披露，消费侧总量数据仍然较弱，但结构上的边际改善值得关注：在补贴生产为主要目的的"政策 补贴"行业开始进入负贡献的同时，"无补贴"行业对于整体商品消费的拉动率在边际改善。而在当下海外基本面正 处于"模糊阶段"的时候，内需行业的改善则构成了中国资产表现韧性的基础，未来可能存在两 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but suggests a focus on specific companies for investment opportunities [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing tension in Sino-Japanese relations, suggesting a need for China to focus on self-sufficiency in industrial machinery, particularly in core components like CNC systems and lead screws [5][23]. - The deep cooling equipment sector is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in new orders for leading companies, indicating a favorable environment for Chinese firms to expand internationally [5][24]. - Siemens Energy has reported a substantial increase in gas turbine orders, which bodes well for domestic suppliers like Yingliu, suggesting a robust demand for turbine blades [5][24]. - The report categorizes various segments of the machinery industry, indicating differing levels of economic performance, with general machinery under pressure, while engineering machinery is accelerating upward [5][25][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Huazhong CNC, Zhongtai Co., and Yingliu [11]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.22% in the last week, ranking 28th among 31 sectors, while it has risen by 31.88% year-to-date, ranking 7th [13][17]. 3. Core Insights Update - The report emphasizes the need for China to develop self-sufficiency in industrial machinery due to geopolitical tensions, and it identifies key companies to watch in this context [5][23]. - The deep cooling equipment sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with significant order increases reported by leading firms [5][24]. - The gas turbine market is also noted for its high demand, particularly benefiting companies like Yingliu [5][24]. 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The general machinery sector is under pressure, with the PMI at 49.0%, indicating contraction [25]. 4.2 Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 7.8% year-on-year [35]. 4.3 Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% [47]. 4.4 Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is seeing a slowdown, with new ship price indices indicating a decline [48]. 4.5 Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with ongoing high demand in the Middle East [50]. 4.6 Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to benefit from improved steel profitability and increased downstream activity [56]. 4.7 Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with significant new orders reported [58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the energy sector, particularly in renewable energy, storage, and hydrogen industries, driven by recent government policies and market demand [1][5][22]. Core Insights - The energy sector is experiencing a significant policy push, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration releasing key guidelines aimed at promoting high-quality development in the renewable energy sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][5]. - There is a strong emphasis on the global demand for clean energy and the construction of new power grids over the next 3-5 years, presenting abundant investment opportunities in storage, green hydrogen, and ammonia [1][5]. - The report highlights the robust growth in the energy storage market, with a notable increase in global energy storage battery shipments, which reached 428 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 90.7% [9][7]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage - The report emphasizes the necessity of a capacity pricing mechanism for energy storage, with Inner Mongolia setting a compensation standard of 0.28 yuan/kWh for 2026, which is better than expected [1][5]. - A long-term agreement between Haibo and Ningde Times for 200 GWh of energy storage batteries reinforces the optimistic outlook for storage demand and battery supply constraints [1][5][8]. Wind Power - Inner Mongolia plans to add 150 GW of new renewable energy capacity over the next five years, with a competitive bidding process for 15 GW of wind power projects in 2025, indicating sustained high demand in the short to medium term [2][15]. - The report notes favorable pricing policies for offshore wind projects in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, suggesting a significant increase in domestic offshore wind capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][16]. Photovoltaics - The report suggests a focus on perovskite technology, which is gaining traction due to policy support and industry advancements, recommending investments in equipment and core materials [18][19]. - CSIQ's strong guidance for energy storage shipments in 2026, projected to be between 14-17 GWh, indicates robust growth potential in the solar sector [19][20]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report outlines a strategic push from the government to develop the green hydrogen and ammonia industry, with policies aimed at enhancing the integration of renewable energy sources [22][24]. - The establishment of a "flexible load" identity for green hydrogen projects is expected to improve their economic viability and support the stability of high-renewable energy grids [23][24]. Electric Grid - The report highlights significant price increases for metering equipment, with A-D grade meters seeing price hikes of over 30%, which is expected to enhance profit margins for leading companies [30]. - The ongoing high volume of bidding for transmission and transformation projects indicates a stable growth trajectory for the electric grid sector [30].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3050.01 点(周环比+2.70%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4628.14 点（周环比-1.08%），深证综指收于 2511.55 点（周环比-0.31%），上证综指收于 3990.49 点（周环比-0.18%），科 创板收于 1361.23 点（周环比-3.85%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 目前猪价仍处于下跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅 下降，本周生猪出栏均重为 128.48 公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月生猪出栏环 比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，预计季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策端主动去产能或持续 推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业 产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目 前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利润，且 ...

板块市场回顾 本周（11/8-11/14）交运指数上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.1%，跑赢大盘 2.7%，排名 13/29。交运子板块中航空 板块涨幅最大(+5.1%)，公路板块跌幅最大(-1.1%)。 行业观点 快递：10 月快递业务量预计增长 7%，部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（11 月 3 日-11 月 9 日）邮政快递累 计揽收量约 42.2 亿件，环比-1.42%,同比+6.6%；累计投递量约 42.05 亿件，环比-2.32%，同比+7.5%。国家邮政局发 布 2025 年 10 月快递发展指数报告，10 月，发展规模指数为 616.4，同比提升 5.6%。从分项指标看，预计 10 月快递 业务量同比增长 7%左右，业务收入将同比增长 5%左右。"反内卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，叠加行业旺季将来临， 预计快递单票价格有望提升。考虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。 物流：危化品水运价格环比持平，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 3868 点，同比 -11.2%，环比+0.8%。。上周液体化学品内贸海运价格为 166 元/吨，同 ...

公募基础设施REITs周报 2025/11/15 REIT s 2025/11/10~2025/11/14 REIT s 0.94% 98.32 0.53% 0.52% 0.02% 4.26% 0.57% >REIT s> > > > 2 一级市场跟踪 3 REITs & & REITs REITs 数据来源： Wind，国金证券研究所 4 二级市场价量表现 二级市场估值情况 市场相关性统计 | REIT s |  | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | REIT | | | | | | | | | 4.42 | % | REIT | | | | | | | 1.83% | REIT | | | | | | | | 1.81% | REIT | 1.52% | | | | | | | REIT | 1.17 | % | | | | | | | REIT | REIT | | | | | | | | REIT | | | | | | | | | REIT | REIT | | | | | | | | 0.69 | 0. ...

私募基金年度策略和私募行业创新 ——量化产品新风向，宏观策略新动态 分析师：洪洋 执业编号：S1130518100001 目录 01 全球持续去美元化，国内经济韧性十足 03 2025量化股票策略有哪些值得关注的重点？ 04 宏观中观共振，CTA或回归舒适区 02 A股投资策略，量化or主观？ 美国财政赤字在过去几年中持续上升，即便在 的背景下，美国白宫行政管理和预算办 公室给出的2025-2030年的财政预算赤字预测也并没有大幅降低，赤字在GDP的占比则降至5%左右。 具体拆分财政支出，支出占比较高的项目缺乏弹性，包括社会保障、医疗保障、医疗健康等。国债利 息支出自2024财年超过国防支出后，2025财年继续保持高位，在全部支出中占比13.84%。 当前美国白宫行政管理和预算局给出的赤字预测已经包含了"大美丽"法案的支出调整，然而后续政 策推进仍有变数。 从美国的财政收入来看，个人所得税和工资税占比超过了80%，是美国财政收入中最重要的部分。因此 失业率、平均工资等数据，对其财政至关重要。 然而美国就业数据整体表现不佳。新增非农就业人数自2025年以来加速回落，5-8月平均月度新增人数 仅2.68万人，非农 ...

一、一级供给节奏 上周（2025.11.3-2025.11.7，下同）地方政府债共发行 916.1 亿元，其中，新增专项债 452.1 亿元，再融资专项债 127.3 亿元。分募集资金用途来看，"普通/项目收益"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。11 月至今特殊再融资债发行约 693 亿元，特殊再融资债占当月地方债发行规模的比例达到 15.1%。 发行定价方面，10 年地方债发行利率下行幅度大于 20 年、30 年品种。从利差角度看，10 年地方债发行利率下行多 达 6BP，其与同期限国债利差收窄至 13.6BP，而 20 年、30 年品种平均发行利差较前一周反而有小幅走阔。 分地区来看，11 月湖北、云南和福建是地方债发行的主要区域，其中，湖北 20 年以上地方债发行规模达到 92.5 亿 元，此外，发行 10 年以上品种占比近 90%的湖北省地方政府债平均利率达到 2.31%。 二、二级交易特征 上周（11 月 3 日至 11 月 7 日）7-10 年地方政府债小幅跑赢同期限国债、信用债，但近期累计涨幅偏弱。上周 7-10 年、10 年以上地方债指数分别上涨 0.09%、下跌 0.03%，7-10 年品种涨幅超 ...

公募基础设施REITs周报 主要结论 口 二级市场表现 结合国金金融产品REITs加权价格指数及其他大类资产的周度涨跌来看，本周（2025/11/03~2025/11/07）RETs加权指数下跌0.49%，收于97.40 点：中证全指上涨0.63%，中证转债上涨0.86%，中债净价指数下跌0.02%，伦敦金现下跌0.64%，原油品种加权上涨0.68%：本周各大类资产收益表 现由高到低排序依次为：转债>原油>股票>纯债>REITs>黄金。 从RETs寺有的底层资产项目性质来看，本周产权类下跌0.75%至110.46、特许经营权类上涨0.11%至82.68。从持有项目的行业类型来看，本周产 亚园区类下跌1.54%至86.35、仓储物流类下跌1.66%至98.67、生态环保类上涨0.66%至10.24、高速公路类上涨0.26%至69.77、能源类下跌0.41% 至107.81、保租房类下跌0.64%至113.03、消费类上涨0.43%至151.74、数据中心上涨0.30%至105.71; 周度收益表现由高到低排序依次为：生态环 保养,消费养教程中心,高速公路学院课堂,保护法学生产品、教学学课教学学、 二级市场价量表 ...

高频因子跟踪 我们对前期挖掘的高频选股因子进行跟踪测试，发现因子在样本外整体表现出色。就上周表现来看，价格区间因子多 头超额收益率-0.05%，价量背离因子 0.21%，遗憾规避因子-0.47%，斜率凸性因子 0.81%。本月以来，价格区间因子 多头超额收益率为-0.05%，价量背离因子 0.21%，遗憾规避因子-0.47%，斜率凸性因子 0.81%。今年以来高频因子表 现整体都比较优秀，价格区间因子多头超额收益率 5.08%，价量背离因子 5.97%，遗憾规避因子 0.34%。斜率凸性因子 年度表现欠佳，多头超额收益率-7.03%。 其中价格区间因子衡量股票在日内不同价格区间成交的活跃程度，能体现出投资者对于股票未来走势的预期。该因子 展现出了较强的预测效果，今年以来表现比较稳定。价量背离因子主要衡量股票价格与成交量的相关性，一般而言相 关性越低，未来上涨的可能性越高。但该因子近几年表现一直不太稳定，多空净值曲线趋近走平，不过去年超额收益 处于历史较高水平。遗憾规避因子通过考察股票当天被投资者卖出后反弹的比例和程度，展现了较好的预测效果。该 因子样本外超额收益稳定，表明 A 股投资者的遗憾规避情绪依然会显著 ...