本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+1.41%到 13148.5 美元/吨，沪铜-0.63%到 10.08 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，进口铜精矿加工费周 度指数跌至-46.53 美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比上周四增加 17.2%，总库存同比去年同期增长 21.28 万吨。冶炼端，据 SMM，因铜材下游消费疲软，再生铜流入冶炼端比例提升，废产阳极板企业开工率为 75.90%，环比 上升 6.21 个百分点。预计下周开工率环比下降 1.24 个百分点至 74.66%。消费端，据 SMM，铜线缆开工延续承压格局， 多数企业预计今年春节假期时长将超过去年，行业整体维持观望心态，静待节后市场形势进一步明朗。故 SMM 预期下 周铜线缆开工率下降 0.24 个百分点至 55.75%，行业运行波动幅度有限；本周漆包线行业机台开机率回升 4.33 个百 分点，至 79.2%。具体来看，尽管高铜价对于终端的需求压制作用仍在，但市场刚需保持韧性，其中家电行业年末旺 季效应凸显，对漆包线的需求持续攀升，成为支撑市场的核心动力。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+0.71%到 3171.5 美元/吨，沪铝-1.66%到 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous, with brands actively opening new stores despite the onset of the off-peak season, which may lead to short-term data fluctuations [4] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing slight pressure, with platforms focusing on immediate retail market share and a gradual reduction in subsidies, although the data still shows resilience [4] - The e-commerce sector continues to face challenges due to the domestic consumption environment, with Alibaba integrating its ecosystem with the Qianwen app for AI shopping, while Pinduoduo is testing a new "Billion Supermarket" feature [4][12] - The music streaming platform is highlighted as a quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued interest in music subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [4] - The automotive service market is projected to see a year-over-year decline of 6% by December 2025, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9% [4] - The AI and cloud sector is expected to grow, with Qianwen app integrating AI capabilities and significant investments in AI applications anticipated from both domestic and international tech giants [4] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The non-essential consumer sector index increased by 5.67%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 3.33 percentage points, with notable stock performances from Haidilao (+10.65%) and Luckin Coffee (+2.51%) [9][10] - The e-commerce index rose by 3.73%, with Alibaba's stock increasing by 13.45% and Pinduoduo declining by 11.44% [11][15] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Nasdaq Internet index fell by 3.59%, while the Hang Seng Media Index rose by 5.99%, with Netflix and Tencent Music experiencing declines [16][38] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The global cryptocurrency market cap reached $332.23 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 5.5% and 6.9% respectively [22][24] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The automotive aftermarket is projected to decline by 6% year-over-year by December 2025, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9% [34] 1.2.4 O2O - The internet technology index rose by 3.73%, with significant stock movements in companies like Didi and JD Health [35][40] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq Internet index fell by 3.59%, with Alibaba and TSMC showing positive stock performance [38][44] 1.3 Media - The media index increased by 2.04%, with the advertising sector performing well while the film and television sector faced declines [45][46]

台积电 AI 指引及 CAPEX 超预期，关注 26Q1 业绩有望超预期方向。台积电公布 25Q4 业绩，25Q4 实现营收 337.31 亿美元，同比+20.5%，净利润为 162.97 亿美元，同比+35.0%。公司预计 26Q1 营收为 346~358 亿美元，毛利率为 63~65%。公司预计 26 年全年营收同比增长接近 30%。受益于 AI 需求高增长，公司上调长期指引，预计 24~29 年 公司收入 CAGR 将达到 25%（之前指引为 20%），预计 24~29 年公司 AI 处理器收入 CAGR 将达到 55~60%（之前指引 为 45%）。台积电对 AI 展望积极，公司与终端 CSP 客户持续沟通，确认了 AI 需求的真实性，认为 AI 对 CSP 业务 产生了成功的积极影响。台积电表示花费了数月与客户确认需求情况，验证下来发现需求是真实的，目前产能非 常紧张，为了满足下游客户需求，公司计划加大扩产力度，2026 年 CAPEX 将达到 520~560 亿美元，未来三年资 本开支将显著增长。从台积电 AI 收入指引及未来 CAPEX 指引来看，均超预期，接下来，北美四大 CSP 厂商将陆 续 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AI is identified as a core driver for activating new consumption growth points, aligning with policy directions and deeply penetrating consumer applications. It is seen as a key engine for expanding domestic demand under the dual drive of policy and market forces [2][12] - The State Council's meeting on January 16 emphasized the need to continue deepening consumption-boosting actions, highlighting the importance of integrating various policies to enhance residents' consumption motivation and support the development of new service consumption growth points [2][13] Industry Data Tracking - Online platforms: According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV of Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49% year-on-year. The top five categories in terms of growth were books and audio-visual products, automobiles and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [3][14] - Duty-free shopping: Data from the General Administration of Customs on January 14 indicated that from December 18 to January 10, the number of duty-free shoppers reached 585,000, with a total spending of 3.89 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 32.4% and 49.6% respectively [3][14] Market Review - In the week from January 12 to January 16, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index changed by -0.45%, +1.14%, -0.57%, +2.34%, and +2.37% respectively. The retail trade sector (Shenwan) saw a decline of 1.47%, ranking fourth among nine major consumption sectors [4][18] - Notable stock performances included Xinhua Department Store, Yiwang Yichuang, Sanjiang Shopping, Wukuang Development, and Jihong Co., which saw significant gains, while Dongbai Group, Baida Group, Central Mall, Cuiwei Co., and Yonghui Supermarket experienced declines [4][18] Investment Recommendations - For offline retail, it is suggested to focus on Yonghui Supermarket, which is adopting a model similar to that of Pang Donglai, emphasizing a selective retail approach that has the potential for long-term growth in the post-consumption era [6][26] - In the cross-border e-commerce sector, it is recommended to pay attention to leading brands with strong brand influence and product differentiation, as they are expected to show resilience in performance [6][27] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Laoputang and Chaohongji are highlighted for their potential growth driven by high gold prices and product optimization strategies [6][27] - For online retail, Meituan is viewed positively due to its established user base and competitive advantages in delivery logistics [6][27] - China Duty Free Group is recommended as a key focus due to its leading position in the duty-free industry and the expected recovery in high-end consumption [6][27]

Investment Rating - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 1.91% during the week of January 12-16, 2026, ranking 5th among 31 primary industry categories [3][13]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 7.40%, ranking 7th among the same categories, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.20% [16]. Core Insights - Emphasis on the potential of SpaceX's chain and 3D printing in rocket technology, with a significant increase in satellite frequency resource applications in China [5][23]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to experience a major upward cycle, with December sales figures exceeding expectations for both domestic and export markets [5][24]. - The AI upgrade potential in CNC systems is highlighted, particularly with the domestic leader Huazhong CNC, which is positioned to leverage AI for performance improvements [5][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index's performance during the week and year-to-date is noted, with specific rankings against the CSI 300 Index [3][16]. Core Insights Update - The report discusses the advancements in 3D printing technology in the aerospace sector, the robust demand for engineering machinery, and the growth potential of AI in CNC systems [5][24]. Key Data Tracking - General machinery sector remains under pressure, while engineering machinery shows accelerated growth, and railway equipment maintains steady growth [25][35][45]. - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, while oil service equipment is stabilizing at the bottom [49][51]. Industry Dynamics - The report outlines significant developments in various sectors, including the successful launch of new technologies and projects in the general machinery and robotics fields [60][62][64].

投资逻辑 本周加密市场与美国降息预期紧密相关。周中美国发布 12 月未季调核心 CPI，年率为 2.6%，低于前值，加密市场由 此上涨。之后特朗普暗示美联储主席人选或为更鹰派的凯文沃什，全年降息预期下滑，加密市场由此调整。目前 FedWatch 预期 2026 年 1、3、4 月均大概率不降息。整体而言本周加密市场市值和情绪均出现反弹，但成交额环比 上周小幅下滑，期权市场看跌未来 1 周和 1 个月行情。全年来看，期权市场目前认为 2026 年前三季度币价保持平稳， 看跌 Q4 行情。 全球政策与产业新闻方面：本周最令人瞩目的事件是美国推迟审议《Clarity 法案》，预计听证会将推迟至 1 月 27 日。 推迟的核心原因是各方就加密货币收益问题有较大争议，美国银行 CEO 担心若允许支付利息，可能导致高达 6 万亿 美元存款转移。韩国确立证券型代币发行与流通框架，并解除了长达 9 年的企业加密投资禁令，允许每年最多投资 5%股本。阿根廷第二大加密交易所推出该国首张以比特币担保的信用卡；伊朗抗议期间比特币使用激增；白俄罗斯 总统签署法令推动加密银行发展。巴基斯坦与 World Liberty Financia ...

核心观点 2025 全年用电量首次突破 10 万亿度，发用电转型趋势得到验证 2025 年我国全社会用电量 10.37 万亿度（同比增长 5.0%），为全球单一国家首次突破 10 万亿度。其中一、二、 三产及居民分别同比增长 9.9%、3.7%、8.2%、6.3%，其中第三产业的充换电服务、信息传输软件和信息服务同比分别 增长 48.8%、17.0%。计算 12 月单月数据来看，全社会、一、二、三产及居民分别同比+2.8%、+7.1%、+3.1%、+5.3%、 -2.2%，增速偏低预计主要系气温同比偏高影响，12 月全国 34 个主要城市平均气温同比提升 1.9 摄氏度，1 月至今气 温同比持平，后续寒潮来临或将带动用电需求提升。从增量电量贡献度数据来看，全年三产及居民占全社会用电量增 量的 49%，高于其在结构中 34.5%的占比。单 12 月二产占增量比例为 73%，超过其结构占比，也是 25 年首次在全社会 用电量增速偏低的月份的实现高占比，二产的韧性或在持续显现。总的来看，我们认为用电量转型的趋势仍然明确， 即从高耗能制造业向新兴制造业的转型、从二产向三产居民的转型。进入 2026 年，若高耗能制造业 ...

单击或点击此处输入文字。 核心观点： 千寻智能具身智能模型 Spirit v1.5 于机器人评测榜单 RoboChallenge 登顶第一。千寻智能旗下端到端具身智能模 型 Spirit v1.5 在第三方机器人模型评测榜单 RoboChallenge 上登顶第一，超越了国外知名模型 pi0.5，成为唯一成 功率突破 50%的模型。与此同时千寻智能已将该模型权重、训练代码及评测实现完全开源，为业界提供了突破脚本化 数据限制、探索真实世界泛化能力的新路径。 逐际动力发布具身智能体系统 LimX COSA。 LimX COSA 是逐际动力全新开发的面向物理世界原生的具身 Agentic OS， 通过将高阶认知与全身运控进行深度融合，使机器人在真实的物理世界中，实现"能想、能动、边思考边干活"的大 小脑一体化智能。全尺寸人形机器人 Oli 在 COSA 系统的驱动下，率先成为兼具运动智能和高阶认知的人形智能体。 自变量机器人已完成 10 亿元 A++轮融资。具身智能企业自变量机器人宣布已于近期完成 10 亿元 A++轮融资。融资由 字节跳动、红杉中国、北京信息产业发展基金、深创投、南山战新投、锡创投等投资机构及多个 ...

板块市场回顾 本周（2026/1/10-2026/1/16）交运指数下跌 1.2%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.6%，跑输大盘 0.6%，排名 20/29。交运子板 块中公交板块涨幅最大(+2.4%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-4.1%)。 行业观点 快递：2025 年快递业务量同比增长 13.7%，部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（1 月 5 日-1 月 11 日）邮政快 递累计揽收量约 41.07 亿件，环比+7.1%,同比+4.1%；累计投递量约 41.6 亿件，环比+6.0%，同比+9.0%。据人民日报， 2025 年，我国快递业务收入和快递业务量分别完成 1.5 万亿元和 1990 亿件，同比分别增长 6.5%和 13.7%。"十四五" 时期，邮政行业业务收入年均增长超过 10%；人均年快递使用量增长到 141 件，单日最高业务量达 7.77 亿件。反内 卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，快递旺季来临，反内卷涨价已兑现。考虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等， 推荐顺丰控股。低价件减少，头部快递市场份额提升，看好中通快递。 物流：危化品水运价格环比增长，上海发布智能驾驶利好政策。本周中国化工产品价格指数( ...

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数转为回升至 48% 本期仅 30/10Y 国债换手率、基金分歧度、市场利差分位值回落 8、2、1 个百分点，其余指标分位值不同程度上升， TL/T 多空比、基金-中小行、政策利差、商品比价、不动产比价分位值分别上升 53、22、20、16、14 个百分点。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量升至 5 个（占比 25%）、位于中性区间的指标数量升至 8 个（占比 40%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，TL/T 多空比由偏冷区间升至过热 区间，政策利差、商品比价均由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 机构行为分位均值上升 ①交易热度中，仅 30/10Y 国债换手率小幅回落 8 个百分点，其余指标分位值均上升，其中 TL/T 多空比分位值大幅上 升 53 个百分点，带动交易热度分位均值上升 9 个百分点。②机构行为类指标中，仅基金分歧度、基金超长债买入量 分位值回落 2、6 个百分点，其与分位值均上升，其中交易-配置盘买入力度分位值上升 22 个 ...