行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/11/24-2025/11/28）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 3.91%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 7；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.64%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 30.48%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 6；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 15.04%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 AI 催化燃气轮机需求上行，持续看好核心零部件涡轮叶片。目前全球大型数据中心数量高速增长，导致电力需 求高增。燃气轮机发电凭借项目建设速度快、发电稳定、成本低等优势，有望成为 AIDC 供电的重要方案，预计 2025-2028 年，美国数据中心总功耗约从 8.9GW 提升到 111.3GW，按照燃机占比 46%-52%的假设，对应燃机需求 为 4.1GW-57.9GW，26-28 年增速分别为 219%/135%/88%，保持高增。涡轮叶片是燃机核心零部件，价值量大，壁 垒高，全球产能严重不足。应流股份是国内叶片龙头，经历了长期重 ...

本周观点 逐步回归平静： 投资逻辑 逐步回归平静。1）12 月美联储降息争议减弱，市场出现显著回暖，流动性和风偏有所回升。Google 发布 Gemini 之后又起 AI 芯片 TPU 逻辑，一方面减弱了对 AI 泡沫的担忧，另外一方面让 AI 产业链逻辑有所延伸，TPU 产业 链相关标的表现强劲。我们对 AI 科技发展的前景持续看好，AI 对生产效率提升的逻辑畅通，短期可能产业过热 或者过度投资，我们关注经营性现金流良好的科技龙头，如美股的 Google、META、微软、阿里、腾讯等，另外持 续关注 AI 应用的落地方向，如物理 AI 等。2）加密货币短期压力难减，区间震荡为主，尽管 12 月美联储降息概 率提升，但是高风险资产对降息信息的讨论过度敏感，加上 DAT、ETF 等中心化持币的负反馈担忧，短期我们谨 慎观察该板块的变化。中长期维度我们对区块链、加密市场保持乐观，对去中心化、跨境支付技术迭代等带来的 变化时刻保持跟踪。3）澳门度假旅游行业我们认为持续配置的价值高，供给和需求的剪刀差逻辑持续兑现，板 块中长期维度受益于降息周期，而未来几个月的景气度在长假期加持和低基数的背景下有望持续上行。4）我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the wind power, lithium battery, and energy storage sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to improving supply-demand dynamics and government support [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" initiative led by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which aims to promote healthy competition and stabilize prices in the industry [5][15]. - The lithium battery sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of significant growth driven by increasing demand and government support for rational competition [15][16]. - The wind power sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability, supported by stable bidding prices and a favorable demand outlook for offshore wind projects [1][6][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Wind Power - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines remains high, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][6]. - Shanghai's government is accelerating the construction of offshore wind power demonstration projects, indicating a strong demand outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [13][14]. Lithium Batteries - The MIIT held a meeting to discuss the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and the rejection of irrational competition [15][16]. - The report maintains a positive view on the midstream material segment of the lithium battery supply chain, anticipating a favorable market environment [15]. Energy Storage - Fluence's Q4 2025 earnings call indicated a positive trend, with AI-driven power shortages translating into substantial energy storage orders [18][19]. - The report highlights the growing demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in data centers, driven by the need for flexible interconnection and backup power solutions [19]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The NDRC has reiterated the importance of hydrogen energy in enhancing power system regulation, with new policies expected to support the development of green hydrogen projects [20][21]. - The report notes that Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen policy has improved project economics, allowing for excess electricity to be sold to the grid, which is crucial for project viability [21][22]. Photovoltaics - In October, new photovoltaic installations increased by 30% month-on-month to 12.6 GW, with expectations for total installations to reach 280-300 GW for the year [23][25]. - The report suggests bottom-fishing opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, particularly in companies involved in high-efficiency modules and innovative technologies [25][24]. Grid and Power Equipment - The report highlights significant bidding activity in the ultra-high voltage (UHV) equipment sector, with a record 16.5 billion yuan in contracts awarded [29][30]. - The report anticipates continued high demand for UHV projects, with several key projects expected to be approved in 2026 [30][31].

板块市场回顾 本周（11/22-11/28）交运指数下跌 0.5%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.6%，跑输大盘 2.2%，排名 27/29。交运子板块中公交 板块涨幅最大(+3.3%)，航空板块跌幅最大(-2.0%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 41.26 亿件，环比 +1.65%,同比-6.63%；累计投递量约 40.91 亿件，环比-2.53%，同比-7.86%。反内卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，快递 旺季来临，反内卷涨价已兑现。考虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。 物流：危化品水运价格环比持平，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 3864 点，同比 -11.1%，环比+0.3%。上周液体化学品内贸海运价格为 166 元/吨，同比-9.33%，环比持平。本周对二甲苯（PX）开工 率为 90.1%，环比+0.6pct，同比+4.5pct；甲醇开工率为 84.0%，环比+0.2pct，同比+3.9pct；乙二醇开工率为 67.5%， 环比-0.4%，同比+7.1pct。发力 ...

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周海外 AI 应用中，Gemini 活跃度快速攀升，ChatGPT 小幅回落，Claude 与 Perplexity 微幅增长，国内应用 则保持平稳。技术与硬件领域，DeepSeek 发布 6850 亿参数的 DeepSeek-Math-V2，首创"生成-验证"闭环机 制，以 83.3%的 IMO 正确率成为全球最强开源数学模型；阿里通义推出 6 亿参数 Z-Image 生图模型，兼顾照片级 质感与 8 步疾速推理。硬件方面，夸克发布搭载千问助手的 AI 眼镜 S1 及 G1，起售价分别为 3799 元和 1899 元，主打双旗舰芯片与可换电设计。基础设施层面，AMD 联合 IBM 发布首个全流程基于 MI300X 训练的 MoE 模型 ZAYA1，验证了非 NVIDIA 算力在大规模模型训练中的可行性。 - 公司 2026 财年三季度在 AI 基础设施景气和 PC 换机周期带动下，实现收入与 EPS 同步创历史新高，验证其在 AI 服务器整机与机架级方案上的执行力与交付能力。ISG 连 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of ultra - long government bonds is expected to remain at a high level in 2026, with the issuance scale possibly reaching 6.7 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the demand side may experience a marginal slowdown, so attention should be paid to the upward pressure on the ultra - long - end spread in 2026 [3][14][31] - The trading rhythm of the current bond market may be different from previous years. Without a rate cut, there is limited room for compression of short - term and term spreads, and the bond market may not have an obvious trending market [6][32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Thinking: Concerns about the Supply and Demand of Ultra - long Bonds - **Supply - side situation** - The supply of government bonds shows a "long - term" characteristic, which is likely to continue in 2026. The proportion of government bonds with a term of over 10 years in 2024 - 2025 was about a quarter. In 2026, the total issuance of government bonds is estimated to be 25.8 trillion yuan, and the issuance scale of ultra - long - end government bonds may reach 6.7 trillion yuan [3][9][14] - The long - term trend in government bond supply is due to factors such as the need to disperse maturity peaks, lock in long - term financing costs, the shift of fiscal expenditure to long - term projects, and the issuance of special bonds [13] - **Demand - side situation** - The "strong demand + improved liquidity" pattern may not continue. The improvement in ultra - long - end liquidity is approaching its limit, and its marginal contribution to compressing term spreads is weakening [5][18][19] - Demand from various institutions is expected to decline marginally. Funds may continue to reduce their demand for ultra - long bonds; the insurance industry's allocation intensity may slow down; wealth management products have limited demand for ultra - long bonds; and banks mainly passively accept supply [5][21][31] 3.2 Transaction Review: Increase in Medium - and Long - term Yields - **Central bank operations and funds** - The central bank had a net capital withdrawal of 642 billion yuan this week, but the MLF had a net injection of 100 billion yuan. The funds smoothly crossed the month, and the central levels of DR001, DR007, and DR014 decreased [33] - **Yield changes** - Most medium - and long - term treasury bond yields increased this week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 1.84%, and the 10 - 1 term spread widened by 2bp to 44bp [35] - The yield first increased and then decreased. It was affected by market expectations, bond price fluctuations of Vanke, and broad - money expectations during the week [35][36] - **Other indicators** - The median duration of public funds decreased by 0.04 to 2.96 years from November 24th to November 28th, and the duration divergence index remained at 0.56 [41] - Among the ten interest rate synchronization indicators, "positive" and "negative" signals each accounted for 5/10, and the US dollar index sent a "negative" signal [43]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the generative AI model leader iFlytek, AI hardware companies such as Hikvision, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai, as well as companies like Maifushi that can enhance paid rates and ARPU through AI-related functionalities [3] Core Insights - The AI design platform Lovart has integrated Google's latest image generation model NanoBananaPro, introducing new features that allow processing of up to 14 images simultaneously while maintaining style consistency [2] - OpenAI launched a new feature called "ShoppingResearch" on the ChatGPT platform, providing personalized shopping research and recommendations through conversational interactions [2] - Alibaba released its first AI smart hardware product, Quark AI Glasses S1, which serves as a personal assistant with various functionalities [2] - The computer industry showed weak performance in November, contrary to historical trends, primarily due to external pressures such as geopolitical conflicts and internal factors like weak revenue growth [2][11] - The report anticipates a rebound in the spring following a three-month correction, with historical data suggesting a new round of elasticity typically follows a 2-4 month correction in non-bear market phases [2] Summary by Sections Computer Industry Insights - The report identifies high-growth areas for 2025, including AI computing power and LiDAR, with accelerating growth in AI applications and stable growth in software outsourcing, financial IT, quantum computing, data elements, EDA, and overseas software [10][12] - The report highlights the current pressures on certain sectors, such as industrial software and medical IT, while noting that sectors like smart transportation and government IT are stabilizing [10][12] Market Performance Review - From November 24 to November 28, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) decreased by 3.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points [13] - The report lists the top five companies with the highest gains and losses during this period, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [14] Upcoming Key Events - The report highlights two significant upcoming events: the "Artificial Intelligence +" Industry Ecosystem Conference and the 8th GAIR Global Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Conference, suggesting that these events may present opportunities within the industry [24][25]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating high levels of market activity and potential for price increases [12][14][36]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton on LME, with a notable decrease in copper inventory across major regions, indicating a tightening supply [12][21]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton on LME, with a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in production rates, suggesting a recovering demand [13][18]. - Gold prices surged by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and increased holdings in gold ETFs, reflecting strong market sentiment [14][30]. - The rare earth sector shows a bullish trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 3.43%, supported by tightening supply and favorable export conditions [37][36]. - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, bolstered by the suspension of export controls by the Ministry of Commerce, enhancing market confidence [38]. - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and effective measures against smuggling in Indonesia [39]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton, with a decrease in national copper inventory to 173,500 tons, reflecting a supply contraction [12][21]. - The copper processing fee index dropped to -$42.75 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [12]. - The copper wire and cable industry shows a mixed performance, with operating rates at 66.89%, reflecting a decline in year-on-year demand [12][21]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton, with domestic inventory decreasing to 596,000 tons [13][18]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing increased by 0.3% to 62.3%, indicating a recovery in demand [13][18]. - The cost of prebaked anodes is expected to rise by over 400 yuan per ton, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and increased ETF holdings [14][30]. - The market remains strong, with expectations for continued price support unless a liquidity crisis occurs [14]. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 3.43%, with expectations of supply tightening due to policy changes and raw material shortages [37]. - The export volume of magnetic materials increased by 16% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [37]. Antimony - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, supported by the suspension of export controls, which boosted market confidence [38]. - Global supply is expected to decline due to reduced production from overseas mines, maintaining upward price pressure [38]. Tin - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, driven by supply constraints from geopolitical tensions in Africa and effective anti-smuggling measures in Indonesia [39]. - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations for sustained demand growth [39]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 4.04% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with production levels showing a slight increase [63]. - The demand for lithium remains strong, driven by growth in the battery and energy storage markets [63]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.6% to 403,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to support future price increases [64]. - The market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, indicating a need for demand recovery [64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the market performance leading up to the expected interest rate cut in December, but expresses caution regarding the market's performance in early 2026 [4][29]. Core Insights - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.11 trillion this week, reflecting a 6.1% increase from the previous week, driven by rising expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. - Bitcoin closed at $90,919, up 6.8% week-over-week, while Ethereum closed at $3,032, up 9.6% [10][11]. - The current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is still considered overly pessimistic, despite a slight recovery in the fear and greed index, which stands at 20, indicating extreme fear [11][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut in December has increased the total cryptocurrency market capitalization to $3.11 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing significant price increases [10][11]. - The fear and greed index indicates extreme fear, but there are signs of a potential market rebound in the coming month [11][17]. Global Policy and Industry News - Texas has become the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin, investing $10 million through BlackRock's IBIT ETF [22]. - The SEC is set to discuss governance and tokenization of equity securities in a public meeting scheduled for December 4, 2025 [24]. - Hong Kong is developing a regulatory framework for digital asset trading and custody services, with a market size of approximately $3 billion for tokenized products [22]. Company News - The CFTC has granted Polymarket a license to operate in the U.S., and the Intercontinental Exchange is considering a $2 billion investment in Polymarket [27]. - Robinhood has acquired 90% of the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange MIAXdx, expanding its presence in the prediction market [28]. - Cipher Mining issued $333 million in senior secured notes at a 7.125% interest rate to fund the construction of a digital center [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cryptocurrency mining companies with partnerships or potential equity relationships with Google, as well as companies with substantial power reserves [4][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a weekly analysis of public - offering infrastructure REITs from November 24 to November 28, 2025, including secondary - market price - volume performance, valuation, market correlation, and primary - market tracking [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary - market Price - volume Performance - Various REITs' performance data are provided, including weekly return, year - to - date return, turnover rate, trading volume, etc. For example, in the warehousing and logistics sector, the weekly return of Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT was 1.24%, and the year - to - date return was - 1.07% [9]. 3.2 Secondary - market Valuation Situation 3.2.1 Valuation of Equity - type REITs - As of this Friday, the top three products in terms of internal rate of return (IRR) are E Fund Guangzhou High - tech Industrial Park REIT, CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT, and Huaxia HeDa High - tech REIT, with corresponding IRRs of 8.74%, 8.45%, and 7.66% respectively. Some REITs have P/FFO and P/NAV indicators lower than the industry average, and the top three in expected cash distribution rate are CJGX Shounong REIT, E Fund Guangzhou High - tech Industrial Park REIT, and CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT [19][20][21]. 3.2.2 Valuation of Concession - type REITs - As of this Friday, the top three products in terms of IRR are Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT, and CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, with corresponding IRRs of 9.46%, 9.45%, and 6.94% respectively. Some REITs have P/FFO and P/NAV indicators lower than the industry average, and the top three in expected cash distribution rate are E Fund Shenzhen Expressway REIT, ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT, and Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo REIT [22][23][24]. 3.3 Market Correlation Statistics - At the level of the correlation coefficient between REITs and major asset classes, this week, the correlation coefficient between REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index was the highest at 0.20. The correlation coefficients between REITs and other major asset classes such as CSI 300, ChiNext Index, etc., are also provided. Different types of REITs have different correlation coefficients with major asset classes [25][26]. 3.4 Primary - market Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, there are 12 REIT products still in the exchange acceptance stage and 1 in the passed - to - be - listed state. This week, Dongfanghong Tunnel Road Expressway REIT and Ping An Xi'an High - tech Industrial Park REIT were submitted to the exchange [28][29].