
Search documents
信用抢短债、利率买长债:债牛下半场如何演绎?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 13:57
一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周模拟组合收益普遍修复,且利率风格组合绝对收益整体高于信用风格。利率风格组合中,产业超长型、二级债久 期策略周度收益靠前,读数分别为 0.17%、0.16%;信用风格组合中,产业超长型、永续债久期策略收益领先,读数 分别达到 0.2%、0.16%。 分重仓券种看,中长端二级资本债、超长产业债重仓组合表现占优。信用风格存单重仓组合周度收益均值上行 3.5bp 至 0.09%,绝对点位达到 8 月中旬以来最高,尽管假期前后修复不及对应利率风格组合,但三季度至今信用风格存单 策略跑赢后者超 70bp;城投重仓组合周度平均收益环比升至 0.1%,与存单策略相近,长久期城投债行情回暖,久期、 哑铃型策略收益较节前一周回升 10bp 以上,尤其是哑铃型组合结束了连续四周负收益的低迷态势;二级资本债重仓 组合收益均值同样小幅升高,此前跌幅逐次收窄的子弹型策略本周绝对收益达到 0.15%附近,且三季度累计回撤相对 小,兼具防御和博反弹优势,此外,二级债久期策略也不弱;超长债重仓策略收益回升近 25bp,其中,产业超长型策 略读数达到 0.2%的较高水平。 收益来源方面,二永债久期策略已具有相当的收益空 ...
固定收益周度策略报告:又见摩擦,对冲政策需要加码吗?-20251012
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 13:48
四季度:政策对冲会重现吗? 从近年的季节性规律来看,四季度历来是财政政策集中发力的高频窗口。一方面,在内需偏弱的大环境下,年度经济 目标的实现压力往往在年底集中体现,财政支出的节奏和强度通常在这一阶段明显上行;另一方面,前三季度 GDP 增 速与目标值的缺口越大,财政端加码对冲的概率也越高。无论是增发政府债,还是推进重大项目落地,财政在四季度 都具备较强的调节灵活性和政策空间。今年前三个季度的经济增速已基本明朗,而二、三季度基本面有所边际走弱, 那么今年会重演"四季度发力"吗? 前三季度累计增速或高于年度目标,四季度"达标"压力较小。 在我们的基准情形下,根据拟合结果,三季度 GDP 增速大致落在 4.9%左右,前三季度累计增速或能达到 5.2%,高于 全年 5%左右的增长目标。从历史经验来看,参考近五年的表现,当前三季度累计增速已超出目标时,四季度新增大规 模逆周期政策的概率通常下降。按照上述测算进一步外推,今年四季度 GDP 同比增速达到约 4.6%,全年目标就基本可 以兑现。换句话说,即便四季度经济延续二、三季度的温和回落态势,只要不显著脱离中枢水平,并叠加前期政策工 具逐步落地,经济增速预计仍能稳定在 ...
出海+低估值高股息梳理-20251012
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 12:24
Investment Rating - The report highlights several companies with dividend yields exceeding 5%, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, Rabbit Baby, and others, indicating a positive investment outlook for these firms [2][12] Core Insights - The report recommends focusing on overseas markets, particularly in Africa, for building materials, fiberglass, and electrolytic aluminum sectors, suggesting that companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement are well-positioned for international competition [13] - Continued tracking of AI copper foil and AI electronic cloth is advised, as demand remains strong, benefiting from capital expenditure expansion in semiconductor clean rooms and PCB equipment [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Companies with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 15x include Sichuan Road and Bridge (8.8x), China Construction (4.8x), and others, indicating potential undervaluation [2][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of cash dividend ratios for 2024 and 2025, with several companies projected to maintain high dividend yields [2][12] Cycle Linkage - The national average price for cement is reported at 349 RMB/t, down 53 RMB/t year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.5% [4][14] - The average price for float glass increased to 1289.81 RMB/t, reflecting a 5.31% rise, while inventory levels decreased [4][14] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 2.66%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - Cement manufacturing showed a price adjustment of -0.4%, with regional variations in pricing due to demand fluctuations [21][25] Price Changes in Building Materials - The report notes that the price of 2400tex fiberglass remains stable at 3524.75 RMB/t, with no significant changes expected in the short term [56] - The electronic cloth market shows stable pricing, with current rates between 4.3-4.5 RMB/m [57]
9月新开户同比+61%,非车险报行合一落地,关注Q3业绩超预期标的
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 12:23
证券板块 市场交投活跃度提升,支撑券商经纪、利息及自营等业务收入,推动券商三季度业绩整体向好。根据上交所披露数据, 9 月 A 股新增开户数量为 293.72 万户,较去年同期增长 60.73%,环比上升 10.83%。市场成交规模显著提升,两融余 额持续提升,2025Q3 日均两融余额达到 21,197 亿元,同比增长 49.3%;同期上证指数上涨 12.7%,涨幅较去年同期扩 大 0.29 个百分点;主要指数走势方面,沪深 300 指数上涨 17.9%,同比提升 1.83 个百分点;中债总财富指数则小幅 回调 1.0%,同比回落 2.02 个百分点。 投资建议:建议关注三条主线:(1)市场成交额抬高,主要指数上涨,建议关注经纪、两融、投资占比高的券商;券 商板块上半年业绩同比显著改善,高盈利与低估值的显著错配凸显配置性价比,建议关注估值显著低于平均水平的头 部优质券商;建议关注券商并购潜在标的机会。(2)四川双马:科技赛道占优,创投业务有望受益,布局基因治疗赛 道新标的,深化生物医药产业链。公司管理基金的已投项目:屹唐股份(科创板已上市)、奕斯伟材料(科创板 IPO 过 会)、奕斯伟计算以及群核科技(港交 ...
滴滴自驾完成D轮融资,Figure第三代人形机器人发布
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:53
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the automotive and robotics sectors, highlighting the acceleration of advanced driver assistance systems and humanoid robots as key trends in the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is witnessing significant advancements with the launch of the Changan Q07 Tian Shu Intelligent Laser Edition, which features cutting-edge driving technologies and aims to set a new benchmark for smart SUVs [1][8]. - Didi Autonomous Driving has secured a 2 billion RMB funding round, bringing its total financing to over 10 billion RMB, which will be directed towards AI core algorithm development and L4 autonomous driving applications [1][11]. - In the robotics sector, the collaboration between Zhiyuan Robotics and Longqi Technology has resulted in a multi-billion RMB order for the Zhiyuan Qiling G2 robot, marking a significant milestone in the industrial application of humanoid robots [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Advanced Driver Assistance - Changan Q07 Tian Shu Intelligent Laser Edition was officially launched on October 10, featuring the Horizon Journey 6M chip and Hesai LiDAR, enhancing safety and convenience for users [1][10]. - The vehicle is equipped with a comprehensive sensing network, including 1 LiDAR, 3 millimeter-wave radars, 12 ultrasonic radars, and 11 cameras, significantly improving its perception capabilities [9][10]. - Didi Autonomous Driving announced a 2 billion RMB financing round on October 11, aimed at advancing L4 autonomous driving technology and scaling operations [1][11]. 2. Robotics - The robotics industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant partnerships and product launches, including the Zhiyuan Robotics and Longqi Technology collaboration for the G2 robot, which is one of the largest orders in the field [2][22]. - Figure AI launched its third-generation humanoid robot, Figure 03, which features improved mobility and advanced capabilities for household tasks, marking a step forward in consumer robotics [2][28][30]. - The report highlights the increasing integration of robotics in various sectors, with significant investments and technological advancements driving the industry's growth [2][12][15].
行业周报:有色金属周报:泰克资源铜矿超预期减产,稀土第三波有望启动-20251012
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:14
本周行情综述 铜:本周 LME 铜价-3.05%到 10374.00 美元/吨,沪铜+3.37%到 8.59 万元/吨。供应端,据 SMM,截至本周四,全国主 流地区铜库存周内环比增加 1.8 万吨至 16.63 万吨,主因国产货源到货增加叠加下游消费持续偏弱;展望后续,SMM 预期进口与国产货源到货将增加,且铜价高位抑制下游采购情绪,预计下周库存会有所增加。冶炼端,据 SMM,受节 前后铜价大幅上涨、再生铜原料供应增加影响,本周废产阳极板企业开工率为 53.04%,环比上升 1.41 个百分点; 预计下周开工率环比再升 5.09 个百分点,达 58.13%。消费端,据 SMM,本周黄铜棒行业表现偏弱,企业开工率 41.3%, 较节前回落 7.18 个百分点,主因国庆假期企业停工放假,生产节奏放缓;库存方面,样本企业原料库存 4.45 天、 成品库存 5.99 天,受铜价快速冲高影响,企业普遍控制备货,整体库存较前期收缩。 铝:本周 LME 铝价+1.63%到 2746.00 美元/吨,沪铝+1.45%到 2.10 万元/吨。供应端,据 SMM,本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 64.90 万吨,较 9 月 ...
重点关注自主可控受益产业链
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, particularly focusing on the self-controllable beneficiary industrial chain, AI-PCB, core computing hardware, and the domestic computing and Apple supply chain [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the escalating trend of US-China trade tensions, with recent developments indicating a potential acceleration in China's semiconductor industry capitalizations and technological breakthroughs [2][5]. - NAND storage chip leader Yangtze Memory Technologies has completed its restructuring with a valuation of 160 billion, potentially initiating an IPO, while DRAM leader Changxin Technology has completed IPO counseling [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials, suggesting a focus on self-controllable beneficiary industrial chains [5][29]. - The AI sector is expected to see significant growth, with companies like OpenAI forming partnerships with major chip manufacturers to enhance computing power investments [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - Apple has launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AI-related devices, which are expected to drive demand in the consumer electronics sector [6][7]. - The report anticipates a surge in AI-related product releases in late 2025 and 2026, benefiting from Apple's extensive customer base and integrated hardware-software advantages [6][7]. 2. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, particularly driven by automotive and industrial control sectors, with expectations of sustained high growth in the fourth quarter [8][29]. - The report notes a significant price increase trend for mid-to-low-end raw materials and copper-clad laminates [8]. 3. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is projected to benefit from increased demand for DRAM and NAND products, with expectations of price increases due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [23][25]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials gaining traction amid export controls [26][28]. 4. Key Companies - The report identifies several key companies poised to benefit from the current market dynamics, including Yangtze Memory Technologies, Changxin Technology, and various domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers [29][30][31]. - Companies like Northern Huachuang and Jiangfeng Electronics are noted for their strong market positions and growth potential in the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors [31][33].
“双节”假期楼市同比下滑,9月百强房企销售额同比回升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:12
行业点评 本周 A 股地产下跌、港股地产、港股物业均上涨。本周(10.4-10.10)申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为-0.8%,在 各板块中位列第 23;恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.3%,在各板块中位列第 4。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌 幅为+0.7%,恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为-3.1%,沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为-0.5%;物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相对收益分别为+3.8%和+1.2%。 土地市场溢价率处于低位。本周(10.4-10.10)全国 300 城宅地成交建面 333 万㎡,单周环比-56%,单周同比- 82%,平均溢价率 4%。2025 年初至今,全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 30756 万㎡,累计同比-9.9%;年初至今,中海 地产、绿城中国、保利发展、建发房产、滨江集团的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(10.4-10.10)47 个城市商品房销售 151 万方,成交量环比-57%,同比-33%,整体处于季节性低位;8 月新房 售价环比-0.3%,环比跌幅持平,同比-3.0%,同比降幅持续收窄;结合量价,景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看:一 线城市周环比-72%,周 ...
猪价下跌或加速产能去化,牛肉价格有望加速上涨
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:11
Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with a focus on selecting low-cost quality enterprises [2][22]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [12][13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to falling prices, with an average price of 10.91 yuan/kg, leading to a potential reduction in production capacity [21][22]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining resilient due to improved downstream demand [3][37]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [4][42]. - The planting industry is experiencing pressure from supply and demand, but potential price increases could occur if there are significant reductions in grain production [5][49]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, and the aquaculture sector is showing upward trends in pricing [62][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The national average pig price has dropped below 11 yuan/kg, with the industry currently in a loss-making state. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.48 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [2][21]. - Short-term expectations indicate further price declines, but medium to long-term prospects remain positive for quality enterprises [22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chicken is 6.88 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The profitability of parent breeding chickens has improved, while broiler profitability remains under pressure [3][36]. - The sector is expected to stabilize as consumer demand gradually recovers [37]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.20 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption season approaches. The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in inventory due to ongoing financial pressures [4][42]. - The beef cycle is anticipated to begin anew, with a focus on the synergy between meat and dairy production [43]. Planting Industry - Recent fluctuations in grain prices are noted, with corn prices at 2215.71 yuan/ton and soybean prices at 3987.37 yuan/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in crop yields occur [5][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in seed technology and production efficiency [49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry remain stable, while aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [62][68].
交通运输产业行业周报:国庆中秋假期出入境人次增长,原油价格环比下降-20251012
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:11
Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for SF Express and Hai Chen Co., highlighting their valuation attractiveness and operational resilience [2][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry processed an average of over 900 million packages daily during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival period, with a total of 7.231 billion packages handled [2]. - The logistics sector is seeing stable prices for hazardous goods water transport, with a recommendation for Hai Chen Co. due to improved demand [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a 3.2% year-on-year increase in daily passenger transport during the holiday period, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [3]. - The shipping industry shows a steady upward trend in oil transport indices, while container shipping rates are under pressure [4]. - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have shown month-on-month growth, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.0% from October 4 to October 10, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5% [12]. 2. Industry Fundamentals 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The container shipping index CCFI is at 1014.78 points, down 6.7% week-on-week and down 27.8% year-on-year [22]. - The oil transport index BDTI is at 1090.8 points, down 1.8% week-on-week but up 5.0% year-on-year [38]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The average daily flight volume increased by 4.01% year-on-year, with a total of 19.138 million passengers transported during the holiday period [3]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.8% week-on-week and down 18.7% year-on-year [64]. 2.3 Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume reached 5.05 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, while road freight volume was 37.48 billion tons, up 3.88% year-on-year [77][81]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery business revenue reached 118.96 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year, with a total volume of 16.15 billion packages, up 12.3% year-on-year [89].