"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，对经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长有 明确诉求。预计"十五五"时期的定量增长目标会围绕在"5%左右"，宏观调控政策思路也将转变为更加侧重于内需， 尤其是民生和消费。 作为"十五五"开局之年，2026 年既要实现经济增长的"开门红"，也要持续优化政策的力度和结构，预计全年经济 增长目标仍将设定在 5%左右，政策的重心将进一步向内需特别是民生领域倾斜。 一是财政加力"投资于人"，以推动重点群体增收减负为抓手，提振居民消费能力。"一老一小"是政策重点支持对象。 基准情形下，2026 年将继续按照现行标准发放育儿补贴，对应财政支出为 1000-1200 亿元，同时逐步扩大免费学前教 育年限，对应的财政资金体量或超过 500 亿元。预计城乡居民基本养老金的增幅在 50 元及以上，对应的财政资金增 量将超过 1000 亿元。此外，预计 2026 年养老服务消费补贴政策有望全面铺开，估计对应每年额外的财政支出在 500- 800 亿元。考虑到民生领域增量政策对应的财政扩张，基准情形下，预计 2026 年一般公共预算赤字率将设定在 4.2%， 赤字规模 6.1 ...

【一周一议】 首先，本周美国降息态度的变化影响风偏，一方面是流动性，一方面是海外国家的汇率预期。因此估值高、海外经济 有关的板块会先受干扰。这正是我们需要强调的，出海成长、科技成长都是长期主线，对出海而言，是寻找具备穿越 海外周期能力的标的、检验出海实力的关键时刻，对科技而言是加速国产技术、形成国产供应链内循环的机会。我们 继续看好出海、AI 新材料板块，本周港股上市的【乐舒适】，为出海板块再添一员，公司是东非、西非快消品（纸尿 裤、卫生巾）龙头，上游供应链+非洲本土制造+本土渠道渗透共同构建护城河，实控人同为【科达制造】子公司特福 国际董事长，随着乐舒适的正式上市，2 家公司出海非洲、南美洲的市场价值会被一同发掘。 第二，每当市场风偏减弱，会关注低估值或者低关注度的板块，例如传统建材和建筑，分红政策成为焦点。观察建材 公司在面临本行业空间萎缩后，不少做出第二曲线的选择，也存在减少资本开支提高分红的做法，例如（1）消费建材 板块，【三棵树】【兔宝宝】【悍高集团】【北新建材】等公司，积极下沉农村、外延扩张，面对家装渠道的外资地位、 通过产品+服务+营销的方式，逐步形成国产替代。我们强调消费建材是成长赛道，虽然短 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on wind power and lithium battery/storage sectors due to their attractive valuation and growth potential, while also indicating a watchful eye on AIDC power, liquid cooling, distribution, and SOFC as they may show significant elasticity when AI sentiment improves [1][6]. Core Insights - The global capital market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by AI, but long-term trends such as global energy supply-demand shifts, domestic planning, and carbon reduction goals remain unchanged, making certain sub-industries attractive for investment [1][6]. - Wind power is highlighted as having a clear upward trend in demand, with low valuations and immunity to AI-related fluctuations, particularly following the initiation of a 2.8GW offshore wind project in Denmark [1][7]. - The lithium battery sector is seeing price increases, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reaching 165,000 RMB/ton, a 27% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong outlook for the lithium battery supply chain [1][10]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - The Danish government has initiated a 2.8GW offshore wind project tender, marking a significant policy shift in Europe that is expected to stabilize industry growth [7]. - Daikin Heavy Industries has signed a major contract for offshore wind projects in Europe, with a contract value significantly exceeding expectations, indicating strong growth potential in service business expansion [8]. Lithium Battery/Storage - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases, with the average cost of lithium iron phosphate materials ranging from 15,714.8 RMB/ton to 16,439.3 RMB/ton, providing a benchmark for cost control [10][15]. - Guoxuan High-Tech has commenced mass production of standard battery cells for Volkswagen, marking a significant milestone in their strategic partnership [10]. Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - In October, battery component exports increased by 21% year-on-year, although terminal demand is expected to slow down towards the end of the year, suggesting a potential recovery in demand-side pessimism [18]. - The report recommends bottom-fishing in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on leading companies in solar storage, glass, low-cost silicon materials, and high-efficiency batteries/components [20]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The green methanol industry is transitioning from policy-driven growth to commercial realization, with significant progress in project implementation and infrastructure [20]. - The establishment of a green methanol project in Inner Mongolia is expected to enhance production capacity and reduce costs, indicating a robust future for the green methanol market [21]. AIDC - NVIDIA's recent financial report shows a significant revenue increase, indicating strong market demand for liquid cooling solutions, which presents investment opportunities in this sector [23][24]. - The shift in NVIDIA's strategy to supply Level-10 systems directly to partners is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of companies providing comprehensive liquid cooling solutions [24][25]. Electric Grid - In October, major power equipment exports reached 6.3 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 8%, indicating a long-term high demand for overseas power equipment [26][27]. - The approval of several high-voltage direct current projects is expected to accelerate bidding and enhance order growth for related companies [28][29].

板块市场回顾 本周（11/15-11/21）交运指数下跌 4.8%，沪深 300 指数下跌 3.8%，跑输大盘 1.0%，排名 12/29。交运子板块中快递 板块跌幅最小(-2.6%)，公交板块跌幅最大(-8.9%)。 行业观点 快递：10 月快递业务量同比增长 8%，部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（11 月 10 日-11 月 16 日）邮政快递 累计揽收量约 44.19 亿件，环比+4.72%,同比+11.3%；累计投递量约 44.4 亿件，环比+5.59%，同比+9.1%。国家邮政 局公布 10 月邮政行业运营情况，10 月，快递业务收入完成 1316.7 亿元，同比增长 4.7%；快递业务量完成 176.0 亿 件，同比增长 7.9%。反内卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，快递旺季来临，反内卷涨价已兑现。考虑估值性价比、经营 韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。 物流：危化品水运价格环比持平，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 3856 点，同比 -11.2%，环比-0.3%。。上周液体化学品内贸海运价格为 166 元/吨，同比-4.55%，环比持平。本周对二甲苯（PX） ...

核心观点 亚玛芬 Q3 营收强劲，再上调全年业绩指引。本周亚玛芬体育发布 2025Q3 经营数据，营收同比增长 30%至 17.56 亿美 元，近一年营收增长持续提速，归母净利润 1.43 亿美元。其中美洲/大中华区/EMEA/亚太(不含中国)营收增长 18%/47%/23%/54%至 5.74/4.61/5.28/11.92 亿美元，美洲展现强劲增长趋势，占总收入 32%。亚玛芬上调全年收入增 幅至 23-24%，此前的预期为 20%；毛利率和营业利润率预期维持在 58%和 12.5–12.7%；摊薄后每股收益预期上调至 0.88-0.92 美元，此前的预测为 0.77-0.82 美元。 医美下游集中度加速提升，美丽田园、新氧差异化逆势增长。医美行业增长曲线明显放缓，据《中国医美行业 2025 年度洞悉报告》，2024 年行业客单价同比下降 10%，但消费人数同比增长 10.7%，总规模突破 3100 万人，头部机构 依托差异化定位实现逆势增长，行业集中度持续提升。新氧 25Q3 业绩超预期，主要由美容治疗服务业务强劲增长驱 动,报告期内公司实现营收 5430 万美元，同比增长 4.0%，其中美容治疗服务业 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the robotics industry, indicating that it is a strong investment opportunity due to the acceleration in technology and market demand [3][31]. Core Insights - The robotics sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with advancements in humanoid robots such as the Zhiyuan Expedition A2 achieving a Guinness World Record for the longest journey walked by a humanoid robot, showcasing enhanced durability and reliability [1][24]. - The collaboration between companies like UBTECH and telecommunications firms to launch AI-driven robots is indicative of the industry's shift towards practical applications and commercial viability [1][14]. - The report highlights the importance of core components in robotics, with companies like Giant Crab Intelligence securing substantial orders for joint modules and harmonic reducers, reflecting strong market demand [1][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotics - The industry is witnessing increased collaboration between upstream and downstream players, with strategic partnerships enhancing technological integration [8]. - Commercialization is accelerating, as evidenced by significant orders and the deployment of robots in real-world applications [8][15]. - Key capabilities and components are making substantial progress, with advancements in humanoid robot technology leading to improved performance metrics [8][24]. 1.1 Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the launch of new operating systems aimed at enhancing AI capabilities and significant investments in AI infrastructure by major corporations [9][10]. - The establishment of standards for embodied intelligence systems is being actively pursued, indicating a structured approach to industry growth [9][10]. 1.2 Main Body - Companies like UBTECH and Zhiyuan are making strides in humanoid robotics, with successful product launches and significant funding rounds indicating strong market confidence [14][15]. - The successful completion of the Zhiyuan Expedition A2's journey demonstrates the potential for humanoid robots in practical applications [23][24]. 1.3 Core Components - Companies are expanding their production capabilities to meet rising demand, with significant investments in new facilities and technology [28][29]. - The supply chain for robotics components is becoming more integrated, with firms like Fulin Precision supplying critical parts to major players like Huawei [29][30]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential of embodied intelligence as a leading application of AI, particularly in humanoid robotics, which is expected to reshape the automotive supply chain [31]. - Investors are advised to focus on key players in the robotics sector, including Tesla, Figure, Huawei, and others, as they possess competitive advantages in hardware and software integration [31][32].

1）特朗普的政策不确定性加大，带来金融市场更明显的动荡和海外资金更快逃离美元。2）全球经济在关税越发明确 的情况下受到更大影响，2026 年全球同步宽松幅度超预期，甚至带来全球共振扩表，明显缓解长端利率压力。3）技 术突破带来制造业回流加剧，美国生产成本明显降息，信用需求激增。4）数据测算存在误差。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9 月非农的数 据指向了 12 月继续降息的必要性。9 月失业率继续跳升 0.12 个百分点，从 8 月的 4.32%升至 4.44%，已经几乎达到 联储在 9 月 SEP 中预期的年末 4.5%水平。更为关键的是，失业率的持续上行意味着美国劳动力的供给似乎并没有想 象中的弱，即过去几个月，个位数甚至负增长的非农新增就业低估了就业的疲软程度。 因此，我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性。 如果 12 月不降息，将带来实体经济进一步走弱的风险。其次，美股 AI 叙事将遭受更大波动。最后，无论是"鹰派降 息"和"鸽派暂停"，货币政策预期管理将更加混乱，我们可能会见到有史以 ...

通信周观点： 海外链看，北美 AI 链持续景气。1）英伟达发布财报，业绩超预期。英伟达发布 FY26Q3 财报，当季录得营收 570 亿 美元，YoY+62%，QoQ+22%，并指引 FY26Q4 营收 650 亿美元，均高于市场预期；毛利率进一步提升，Q3 毛利率为 73.6%， 并指引 Q4 毛利率为 74.8%。黄仁勋在电话会上明确回击"AI 泡沫论""AI 闭环经济论"，公司指出公司至 2026 年底 具有 5000 亿美元订单能见度，且云服务商 GPU 利用率已经饱和。此外，英伟达宣布正在与 OpenAI 建立战略合作伙伴 关系，协助其建设和部署至少 10 吉瓦的 AI 数据中心。我们认为英伟达财报持续超预期说明 AI 叙事仍未被证伪，看 好英伟达链上相关标的。2）谷歌发布 Gemini 3 和 Nano Banana Pro 等系列模型。谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3 并于发布 首日在多个产品中投入使用。Gemini 3 在多个行业排行榜上处于领先地位，并在 Humanity's Last Exam 基准测试中 获得 37.5%的最高分。此外，谷歌正式推出了全新图像生成与编辑模型 Nano Ban ...

心动公司（02400.HK ） 买入（首次评级） 港股公司研究 证券研究报告 "聚匠人心，动玩家情" ，自研+平台 双轮驱动成长 公司简介 心动公司是一家全球游戏开发和发行商，拥有丰富的研发、发行和 代理运营经验。公司主要游戏包括《出发吧麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊 瑟》《仙境传说 M》《火炬之光：无限》等，根据 Sensor Tower，公 司 2025 年 10 月入围全球手游发行商收入榜 TOP100，在中国手游 发行商收入榜中排名第 22 名。同时，公司拥有国内规模最大的综 合性游戏社区平台 TapTap，TapTap 兼具"游戏社区"与"分发平 台"功能，为玩家提供游戏发现、下载、互动的全链路服务，为开 发者提供从测试、发布到运营的全周期支持。 投资逻辑： 1、自研游戏能力持续验证，长青游戏+出海+新品周期驱动增长： 2024 年以来公司自研游戏《出发吧麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊瑟》等 连续取得亮眼表现，体现出打磨精品游戏以及精准产品定位带来 的高成功率。《心动小镇》国际服及《仙境传说 RO：守护永恒的爱 2》等新地区新产品的上线有望继续驱动增长。 2、TapTap 平台成长及商业化空间广阔： a)TapTa ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly for leading brands that are expected to achieve stable growth due to their integrated advantages and strong pricing power [5]. Core Insights - In October, home appliance exports faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline in quantity and value of -9.2% and -13.3% respectively. However, emerging markets showed robust growth, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa [12][14]. - The report highlights that air conditioning exports in Southeast Asia led the growth, with a year-on-year increase of 13% in October [17]. - The overall market sentiment is slightly pressured for white goods and black goods, while kitchen and bathroom appliances are stabilizing at the bottom, and vacuum cleaners maintain high prosperity [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Appliance Export Performance - October saw a decline in air conditioner exports by 29.3%, while washing machine exports increased by 7.7%. The total export figures for refrigerators and televisions also showed declines of 5.5% and 3.1% respectively [12]. - Southeast Asia and Africa led the growth in exports, with Southeast Asia's cold appliance export value reaching approximately 6.7 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [14]. - North America, the Middle East, and Europe experienced significant declines in export values, with North America down 23% and Europe down 8% [15]. 2. Market and Sector Tracking - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 3.77%, while the home appliance index decreased by 2.30% during the week [23]. - Key raw material prices showed a slight decline, with copper and aluminum prices down by 1.05% and 1.16% respectively in the week of November 17-21 [25]. - The USD to RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.09, with a weekly increase of 0.21% [30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies such as Hisense, Midea Group, Haier, and TCL Electronics for their potential in both domestic and international markets, especially as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle which may boost demand for home appliances [5][44].