1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (January 5 - January 9), bond - type ETFs had a net capital outflow of 63.1 billion yuan. Credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs had net outflows of 56.1 billion yuan, 9.6 billion yuan, and a net inflow of 2.7 billion yuan respectively. Compared with the previous week, the weekly cumulative unit - net - value changes of credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 0.01%, - 0.17%, and +3.86% respectively [2][4][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance Progress Tracking - There were no newly issued bond ETFs last week [17]. 3.2 Existing Product Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were 142.2 billion yuan, 404.5 billion yuan, and 66.3 billion yuan respectively, with credit - bond ETFs accounting for 60.6%. The circulating market values of Haifutong CSI Short - term Finance ETF and Boshi Convertible - bond ETF ranked top two, at 61.829 billion yuan and 55.556 billion yuan respectively. Compared with the previous week, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs decreased by 10.5 billion yuan, 38.6 billion yuan, and increased by 5.3 billion yuan respectively. Products with significant scale reduction last week included Harvest CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Yin Hua, and Fullgoal CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, with a month - on - month decrease of over 6 billion yuan each [19][20]. - Among credit - bond ETFs, the circulating market values of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs and science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs were 119.9 billion yuan and 311 billion yuan respectively, decreasing by 7.1 billion yuan and 44 billion yuan compared with the previous week [23]. 3.3 ETF Performance Tracking - Based on the average trends of the cumulative unit net values of 16 interest - rate bond ETFs and 35 credit - bond ETFs, the cumulative unit net values of interest - rate bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs closed at 1.18 and 1.03 respectively. In terms of cumulative returns, the return rate of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs since their establishment has been stable at around 1.20%, while the return rate of science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs has marginally declined to 0.21% [26][28]. 3.4 Premium/Discount Rate Tracking - From a broad - category perspective, last week, the average premium/discount rates of credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 0.25%, - 0.03%, and +0.03% respectively. The average trading price of credit - bond ETFs was lower than the fund's unit net value, indicating low allocation sentiment. Specifically, the weekly average premium/discount rates of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs and science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs were - 0.39% and - 0.22% respectively [34]. 3.5 Turnover Rate Tracking - The weekly turnover rates of interest - rate bond ETFs, convertible - bond ETFs, and credit - bond ETFs were calculated by dividing the weekly trading volume of ETFs by the fund shares. Last week, the turnover rates showed the order of interest - rate bond ETFs > convertible - bond ETFs > credit - bond ETFs, and the weekly turnover rates of all three types of products increased marginally, reaching 141%, 112%, and 91% respectively. Specifically, products such as Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark - Market - Making Treasury Bond ETF, Guotai CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, and Haifutong CSI Short - term Finance ETF had relatively high turnover rates [39].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 10.60 RMB, based on a projected PE of 13 times for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the wool and cashmere yarn industry in China, with production advantages that support market share growth. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.894 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.60%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 377 million RMB, up 1.98% year-on-year [2][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from a "Davis Double Play" as wool prices rise, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels. The price of Australian 19-micron fine wool was 1,096 cents per kilogram in September 2025, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [3][25]. - The company has implemented a wide-band strategy since 2021, which has helped maintain a good capacity utilization rate and is expected to enhance profit margins compared to previous cycles [4][20]. Company Overview - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of fine wool yarn and wool tops, establishing an integrated spinning industry chain. In 2024, it achieved a revenue of 4.841 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 9.07%, and a net profit of 428 million RMB, up 5.96% year-on-year [14][15]. - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly, with a current capacity of approximately 194,000 spindles, including over 32,000 tons of cashmere yarn [2][23]. Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - The company has diversified its production capacity across regions, including Zhejiang, Ningxia, and Vietnam, with ongoing projects to enhance production capabilities. The first phase of a 50,000 spindle high-end fine wool project in Vietnam is expected to be fully operational by June 2025 [22][24]. - Future expansion plans include further capacity increases in Vietnam and Ningxia, aligning with the global trend towards high-end and functional products [22][24]. Profitability Outlook - The rising wool prices are anticipated to drive profit elasticity for the company, with stable growth in both costs and product prices expected to be around 50%-60% during the wool price upcycle [4][41]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 50% in recent years, with a current dividend yield exceeding 4% [4][5]. Market Trends - The report highlights a significant supply shortage in the wool market, with Australian wool production declining to historical lows. This supply contraction is expected to support higher wool prices in the coming years [25][27]. - Demand for wool is projected to recover, particularly in the sportswear segment, which is expected to further bolster wool prices as inventory levels remain low [33][35].

而海外方面，即使美国 12 月非农仅新增 7.5 万人显示就业显著降温，但市场对美联储 1 月降息的预期却不升反降， 这种"数据与预期背离"的核心逻辑在于"财政冲击"压倒了"衰退交易"：特朗普政府提出的 1.5 万亿美元天量国防 预算，叠加突袭委内瑞拉引发的石油地缘溢价，直接引爆了市场对"再通胀"的恐慌。美联储陷入了"就业趋弱但通 胀预期抬头"的滞胀两难，被迫维持高利率以对冲即将到来的财政扩张浪潮，这使得美债收益率在疲软的就业数据下 依然易涨难跌。综合来看，我们预期流动性底座以及政策支持的多方利好下，开门红行情有望延续。我们建议后续战 术配置延续周期科技双线驱动的哑铃型策略：一方面科技聚焦商业航天与 AI 制造，关注军工、电子和通信板块，另 一方面鉴于再通胀逻辑的回归以及海外地缘风的不可控性，继续配置有色金属与上游资源品化工板块。 国内利率方面，本周央行通过 7 天逆回购投放 1022 亿元，到期 13236 亿元，整体通过公开市场操作净回笼 12214 亿 元；中期借贷便利(MLF)无投放亦无到期。短端 1 周 SHIBOR 和 DR007，分别报 1.461%和 1.5157%，较上周分别下降 49.5 ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数继续回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期回升。离岸美元 流动性边际宽松，国内银行间资金面均衡偏松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，主要指数波动率均回升。大多数行业的交易热度处于 90%分位数以上，具体而言：军工、轻 工、化工、传媒、纺服等板块的交易热度均处于 90%分位数以上。通信板块的波动率均依然处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、计算机、机械、电新等板块调研热度居前，石油石化、计算机、农林牧渔、军工、汽车等调研热度上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 2026 年净利润预测被下调。行业上，有色、化工、交运、消费者服务、纺服等 26 年净利润预测被上调。指数 上，上证 50、沪深 300 的 26 年净利润预测被上调，创业板指、中证 500 的 26 年净利润预测被下调。风格上，大盘/ 中盘成长、大盘/中盘价值的 26 年的净利润预测均被上调，小盘成长/价值的 26 年的净利润预测均被下调。 北上活跃度继续回升，延续大幅净买入 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在家电、传媒 ...

事件简评 截至 2026 年 1 月 11 日（北京时间），心动公司自研自发的生活模 拟游戏《心动小镇》（《Heartopia》）国际版在全球超过 100 个国 家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 200 名。 经营分析 《心动小镇》国际版初期下载量数据亮眼。截至 1 月 11 日，《心 动小镇》仍在日本、韩国、法国、泰国等 10 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜第 1，在德国、美国、加拿大等 30 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 20 名，总计在 108 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 200 名。根据 AppGrowing，《心动小镇》国际版在 Google Play 累计下载量超 160 万次，在 Apple Store 下载量约 100 万次，叠加尚无统计的 PC 端下载，我们预计《心动小镇》国 际版下载量已超 300 万次。作为一款大 DAU 且注重社交互动的网 络游戏，《心动小镇》的用户基数对全生命周期的商业化表现至关 重要，公测初期亮眼的下载数据保证了产品长线运营的坚实基础。 游戏内容在社交媒体平台传播有望进一步扩大用户基数。观 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating, recommending continued active investment in the insurance sector due to expected double-digit growth in new premiums driven by the bancassurance channel [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve double-digit growth in new premiums by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, which benefits from the migration of deposits and the competitive advantages of large insurance companies [1][26]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a significant increase in market share, with the "old seven" insurance companies' new premium market share rising from 8.2% in 2019 to 23.8% in 2023, and expected to reach 26.0% in 2024 [2][22]. - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a substantial portion of household deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations that many will not be renewed, leading to a shift towards insurance products [3][35]. - The demographic of clients with maturing deposits is predominantly older, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products a preferred option for reallocating funds [4][40]. - The report highlights that the bancassurance channel's growth will significantly enhance the overall profitability of large insurance companies by spreading fixed costs over a larger premium base [1][26]. Summary by Sections Bancassurance Channel - The bancassurance channel is identified as the main driver of value growth in the insurance industry for 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023 [12]. - The report notes that the shift in focus from individual insurance channels to bancassurance began in 2020, driven by the need to compensate for declining individual premium growth [2][12]. Bank Wealth Manager Survey Analysis - The survey indicates that a significant portion of maturing deposits will not be renewed, with expectations that 50% of clients will have deposits maturing in the 10%-30% and 30%-50% ranges [3][35]. - Wealth managers believe that the most acceptable financial products for clients will be bank wealth management and insurance, with insurance ranking second [4][40]. Projections for 2026 - The report estimates that the new premium growth rate for the bancassurance channel will exceed 25% in 2026, with expected incremental funds of 3,057 billion in January, 5,094 billion in Q1, and 11,150 billion for the entire year [5][62]. - The anticipated growth is attributed to the large volume of maturing deposits and the expected shift towards insurance products due to lower renewal rates for traditional bank deposits [60].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the automotive industry is positive, with expectations for steady demand growth driven by the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2026 [1][12][14] - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the subsidy policy has shifted from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, which is expected to benefit high-end vehicles while putting pressure on low-priced cars [1][14] - The report anticipates a marginal recovery in sales growth in Q1 2026, with an upward revision of the annual domestic sales growth forecast to -2% [1][14][16] Group 2 - The report highlights opportunities in themes such as smart technology and overseas expansion, with passenger car exports maintaining a growth rate of over 20% year-on-year [2][17] - Key companies to watch include BYD, Geely, and Li Auto in the automotive sector, and Horizon Robotics and Top Group in the smart technology and robotics sectors [2][22] - The report notes that the export volume of passenger cars is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2026, driven by recovering demand in markets like Russia and the increasing penetration of fuel and new energy vehicles [2][17] Group 3 - The automotive market saw a wholesale sales volume of 1.457 million units in the last week of December 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5%, while new energy vehicles accounted for 772,000 units, up 22% year-on-year [4][31] - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales volume was 2.759 million units, down 10% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles at 1.554 million units, showing a 3% increase [4][31] - The retail sales data for December 2025 indicated a total of 2.296 million units sold, down 13% year-on-year, while new energy vehicles saw a 7% increase in retail sales [4][31][46]

二、信用策略超额收益跟踪 近四周，行情从普信债向二永债轮动，二级债久期策略累计超额收益占优。具体来看，二级债久期、券商债下沉及永 续债久期组合的累计超额收益分别达到 8.1bp、4.6bp、3.9bp，其余策略累计收益与基准组合的距离也都在 8bp 以内。 近期市场偏好从普信债轮动至金融债，特别是二永债重仓组合累计超额明显超过城投债组合。 从策略期限来看，中长端城投久期策略超额收益回归正区间。短端方面，本周存单策略继续跑输基准，2025 年 9 月 至今存单下沉策略较子弹型策略胜率较高，城投下沉组合超额收益则回升至去年 11 月下旬以来最高；中长端方面， 除商金债子弹型、券商债久期策略外，其余组合超额收益均回正，值得关注的是，城投久期、哑铃型策略表现在过去 七周内首次超越基准，组合收益底部信号再现，而券商债下沉策略超额达到 9bp，接近去年最高点读数（约 11.5bp）； 超长端策略整体超额收益依旧处于负区间，城投、产业及二级超长型组合读数分别为-5.5bp、-8.9bp 和-9.2bp。 风险提示 一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周信用风格模拟组合收益多数回升，利率风格组合则持续下滑。利率风格组合中，二级债久期、城 ...

近期板块多家上市公司资本运作再获进展，大唐集团旗下水电平台桂冠电力拟收购集团水电资产、国电投集团旗 下上海电力拟为集团境外子公司中电国际提供管理服务等。此前推进的资产整合及重组也进入密集落地期，华能集团 旗下内蒙华电收购控股股东风电资产与国电投旗下电投产融整合集团核电资产完成资产过户、国电投水电平台远达环 保拟更名电投水电。公用板块央国企资本运作自 2024 年中以来显著加速，资产整合与并购重组作为重点方向值得关 注，一方面可以盘活存量资产，另一方面也有助于上市公司实现价值重估。我们建议关注大型央国企资产整合下带动 的投资机会，尤其是大集团的专业化平台。 火电板块近期受电价签订影响有所承压，三轮策略逐步演绎 受长协电价签订与煤价上涨影响，火电板块于元旦前后出现一轮较大幅度的调整，我们认为板块的三轮策略正持 续验证中：（1）第一轮在于长协电价签订：北方供需关系及竞争格局相对较好，电价整体可控，因此相对投资机会显 现，本周京能电力再创新高；（2）第二轮在于煤价走势评估：尽管部分省份电价签订不及预期，但若后续煤价有所松 动，则可关注盈利上修的机会，但此视角下需持续关注全社会用电量是否在低基数下增长、发电增量中火电的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the durable consumer goods industry [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a long-term consumer bull market driven by new consumption trends, with four main themes expected to lead the way: AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy [1][8] - Historical cycles indicate that the A-share market exhibits 3-4 year cyclical fluctuations, with technology, cyclical consumption, and manufacturing rotating sequentially [1] - The report draws parallels between the upcoming "anti-involution" reforms starting in July 2025 and the "supply-side" reforms initiated in October 2015, suggesting similar transmission paths despite differing contexts [1] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Outlook for 2026 - The report highlights that the consumer bull market led by new consumption will differ from the 2016-2019 period, focusing on AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy as key growth areas [8] - AI+ consumption is expected to be a major opportunity throughout 2026, with significant advancements in technology and consumer engagement [12] - The overseas expansion of brands is seen as a critical growth driver, particularly as urbanization rates plateau and the focus shifts to international markets [23] - Emotional value consumption is projected to grow significantly, driven by changing demographics and economic conditions, with sectors like pet care and collectibles gaining traction [28] - The silver economy is anticipated to reach a market size of 71 trillion yuan by 2023, with substantial growth expected as the aging population increases [40] 2. Sector Performance Tracking - The report tracks various sectors, indicating a mixed outlook: - Trend toys are showing upward momentum, with companies like Pop Mart leading the market [43] - The new tobacco sector is expected to benefit from regulatory tightening, favoring compliant manufacturers [45] - The home goods sector is experiencing pressure from weak real estate transactions, but there are signs of stabilization [47] - The paper and packaging sector is seeing price fluctuations, with expectations of recovery as supply tightens [49] - The pet food market is evolving, with a shift towards premium products and increased focus on health and wellness [31] 3. Key Data and Trends - The report provides insights into key data trends, such as the significant growth in the 3D printing market, which is projected to reach $24.61 billion by 2024 [17] - The export of 3D printers from China has seen substantial increases, with a year-on-year growth of 136.2% in export value [25] - The emotional value market is expected to continue expanding, with pet care and collectibles being highlighted as key areas of growth [28]