Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. However, it faced a Non-IFRS net loss of 16 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [2]. - The local core business revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [3]. - New business revenue reached 28 billion yuan, reflecting a robust growth of 15.9% year-on-year, although it still incurred an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 364.1 billion yuan, 419.9 billion yuan, and 486.7 billion yuan, respectively. The Non-IFRS net profits are expected to be -18.1 billion yuan in 2025, 16.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 48.2 billion yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The operating income growth rate is projected to be 7.88% in 2025, followed by 15.31% in 2026 and 15.91% in 2027 [10]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating efficiency and user engagement in the new business segments, particularly in grocery retail and international expansion [4].

ASIC 发展势头强劲，继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件。谷歌 Gemini 3 表现出色， Gemini 3 Pro 支持 100 万 Token 的超大上下文窗口，标准输出限制为 64,000 Token。Gemini 3 最让人兴奋的创新是 Deep Think 模式。这 个模式通过内部的思维链过程，模拟人类专家的"慢思考"系统。面对复杂问题时，它不会立即输出答案，而是先 进行多步骤的规划、自我反思和路径验证。Gemini 3 Pro 在 LMArena 排行榜上以 1501 分的成绩位列榜首，在 几乎所有主要 AI 基准测试中都远超上一代。谷歌除了大模型表现出色外，自研 AI 芯片（TPU）也发展较快，除 了自用外，大模型及 CSP 厂商也开始积极采用，根据 The Information 报道，Meta 正在洽谈未来向谷歌采购数 十亿美元的 AI 芯片（TPU），用于其将在 2027 年建成的数据中心，并可能在 2026 年先选择通过 Google Cloud 租用这些芯片算力。10 月 24 日，大模型厂商 Anthropic 与谷歌共同宣布，谷歌将向 Anthropic 供应至多 100 ...

服务器：本周服务器指数+4.60%，本月以来，服务器指数-5.45%。AWS 宣布面向政府区新增近 1.3GW 的 AI/HPC 数据中 心建设，是历史级别的扩张；OpenAI 也透露未来将依托预期 2.2 亿付费用户推动长期训练与推理需求大幅增长。海外 云巨头仍在持续扩容期，服务器需求有望持续上修。 光模块：本周光模块指数+16.46%，本月以来，光模块指数+13.56%。谷歌内部再次强调未来每 6 个月计算能力需翻一 番、4-5 年实现 1000 倍算力增长，这意味着 TPU 集群规模将持续扩张。伴随谷歌推动 TPU 外销、与 Meta 等洽谈大规 模采购，并推进 TPU@Premises 本地化部署，我们看好中际旭创等谷歌的光模块供应商。 IDC：本周 IDC 指数+5.58%，本月以来，IDC 指数-2.53%。阿里明确三年 3800 亿 Capex 或将上修、AI 需求强劲且前代 GPU 全部跑满，同时通义千问 App 公测首周破千万下载，推理侧流量爆发倒逼算力扩建；DeepSeekMath-V2 达到 IMO 金牌水平，开源模型能力突破也将带来更多训练需求。整体来看，云厂商资本开支增长、大模型迭代 ...

【一周一议】 首先，本周 AI 新材料主要关注点落在①谷歌链，②三井金属的声明，③部分日本材料企业转产动力。谷歌链关注度 持续提升，对 AI 新材料的需求和 NV 链有所不同，带来数量、供应商、代际产品的差异。一般认为在谷歌链性价比优 先，例如玻纤布可能向 low-dk 二代倾斜，铜箔向 hvlp2/4 代倾斜，在性能满足的前提下还要兼顾成本。关于三井金 属发布的声明，市场主要关心国产替代的空间。关于部分日本材料企业可能存在转产 T glass 的动力，一方面市场关 心海外供应链扩张影响格局，一方面验证 AI 电子布的高景气。但无论是 NV 链、还是谷歌链，国内材料龙头中材科技、 铜冠铜箔在技术路线、产品储备上依然保持领先。此外，市场对材料的"通胀"属性有期待，希望出现提价迅速带动 业绩预期、给出空间，但是实际上，今年以来材料链呈现的特征是，"紧缺不等于提价"，严格意义上是"紧缺不等于 国内供应链的提价幅度会≥海外供应链"，究其背后是产业的一份清醒，当前中资在 AI 材料链不是主导地位，因此价 格角度是跟随者定位，以及在产业趋势初期、自身供应能力较为有限，需要平衡盈利、产能、客户关系等多维度。如 果中资加速突 ...

消费中观策略&投资建议 临近年末收官可选消费板块总体表现平淡，基本面亮点在于部分包括离岛免税在内的高端消费的复苏有望逐步引导整 体消费企稳，近期的重点事件是 11 月 26 日六部门发布《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》， 提供中长期消费成长方向。总体要求是到 2027 年消费品供给结构明显优化，形成 3 个万亿消费领域（老年用品，智 能网联汽车，消费电子）和 10 个千亿级消费热点（婴童用品，智能穿戴产品，化妆品，健身器材，户外用品，宠物食 品用品，民用无人机，潮玩，珠宝首饰与国潮服饰），打造一批富有文化内涵，享誉全球的高品质消费品。 到 2030 年 供给与消费良性互动、相互促进的高质量发展格局基本行程，消费对经济增长的贡献度稳步提升。 实施方案聚焦商 品消费展开，几大明显方向提供后续消费挖掘方向，（一）功能价值 AI+消费： 加速新技术新模式创新应用，其中提 到强化人工智能融合赋能，推动人工只能在消费品全行业全领域应用，推广生成式人工智能、3D 数字化设计等新工 具。推动 3D 打印设备进入校园；推动健康产品创新发展；（二）情绪价值赛道受到重视：积极发展宠物周边，潮服潮 玩等兴趣消费产 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/11/24-2025/11/28）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 3.91%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 7；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.64%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 30.48%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 6；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 15.04%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 AI 催化燃气轮机需求上行，持续看好核心零部件涡轮叶片。目前全球大型数据中心数量高速增长，导致电力需 求高增。燃气轮机发电凭借项目建设速度快、发电稳定、成本低等优势，有望成为 AIDC 供电的重要方案，预计 2025-2028 年，美国数据中心总功耗约从 8.9GW 提升到 111.3GW，按照燃机占比 46%-52%的假设，对应燃机需求 为 4.1GW-57.9GW，26-28 年增速分别为 219%/135%/88%，保持高增。涡轮叶片是燃机核心零部件，价值量大，壁 垒高，全球产能严重不足。应流股份是国内叶片龙头，经历了长期重 ...

本周观点 逐步回归平静： 投资逻辑 逐步回归平静。1）12 月美联储降息争议减弱，市场出现显著回暖，流动性和风偏有所回升。Google 发布 Gemini 之后又起 AI 芯片 TPU 逻辑，一方面减弱了对 AI 泡沫的担忧，另外一方面让 AI 产业链逻辑有所延伸，TPU 产业 链相关标的表现强劲。我们对 AI 科技发展的前景持续看好，AI 对生产效率提升的逻辑畅通，短期可能产业过热 或者过度投资，我们关注经营性现金流良好的科技龙头，如美股的 Google、META、微软、阿里、腾讯等，另外持 续关注 AI 应用的落地方向，如物理 AI 等。2）加密货币短期压力难减，区间震荡为主，尽管 12 月美联储降息概 率提升，但是高风险资产对降息信息的讨论过度敏感，加上 DAT、ETF 等中心化持币的负反馈担忧，短期我们谨 慎观察该板块的变化。中长期维度我们对区块链、加密市场保持乐观，对去中心化、跨境支付技术迭代等带来的 变化时刻保持跟踪。3）澳门度假旅游行业我们认为持续配置的价值高，供给和需求的剪刀差逻辑持续兑现，板 块中长期维度受益于降息周期，而未来几个月的景气度在长假期加持和低基数的背景下有望持续上行。4）我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the wind power, lithium battery, and energy storage sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to improving supply-demand dynamics and government support [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" initiative led by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which aims to promote healthy competition and stabilize prices in the industry [5][15]. - The lithium battery sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of significant growth driven by increasing demand and government support for rational competition [15][16]. - The wind power sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability, supported by stable bidding prices and a favorable demand outlook for offshore wind projects [1][6][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Wind Power - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines remains high, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][6]. - Shanghai's government is accelerating the construction of offshore wind power demonstration projects, indicating a strong demand outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [13][14]. Lithium Batteries - The MIIT held a meeting to discuss the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and the rejection of irrational competition [15][16]. - The report maintains a positive view on the midstream material segment of the lithium battery supply chain, anticipating a favorable market environment [15]. Energy Storage - Fluence's Q4 2025 earnings call indicated a positive trend, with AI-driven power shortages translating into substantial energy storage orders [18][19]. - The report highlights the growing demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in data centers, driven by the need for flexible interconnection and backup power solutions [19]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The NDRC has reiterated the importance of hydrogen energy in enhancing power system regulation, with new policies expected to support the development of green hydrogen projects [20][21]. - The report notes that Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen policy has improved project economics, allowing for excess electricity to be sold to the grid, which is crucial for project viability [21][22]. Photovoltaics - In October, new photovoltaic installations increased by 30% month-on-month to 12.6 GW, with expectations for total installations to reach 280-300 GW for the year [23][25]. - The report suggests bottom-fishing opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, particularly in companies involved in high-efficiency modules and innovative technologies [25][24]. Grid and Power Equipment - The report highlights significant bidding activity in the ultra-high voltage (UHV) equipment sector, with a record 16.5 billion yuan in contracts awarded [29][30]. - The report anticipates continued high demand for UHV projects, with several key projects expected to be approved in 2026 [30][31].

板块市场回顾 本周（11/22-11/28）交运指数下跌 0.5%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.6%，跑输大盘 2.2%，排名 27/29。交运子板块中公交 板块涨幅最大(+3.3%)，航空板块跌幅最大(-2.0%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 41.26 亿件，环比 +1.65%,同比-6.63%；累计投递量约 40.91 亿件，环比-2.53%，同比-7.86%。反内卷"背景下多个产粮区已提价，快递 旺季来临，反内卷涨价已兑现。考虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。 物流：危化品水运价格环比持平，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 3864 点，同比 -11.1%，环比+0.3%。上周液体化学品内贸海运价格为 166 元/吨，同比-9.33%，环比持平。本周对二甲苯（PX）开工 率为 90.1%，环比+0.6pct，同比+4.5pct；甲醇开工率为 84.0%，环比+0.2pct，同比+3.9pct；乙二醇开工率为 67.5%， 环比-0.4%，同比+7.1pct。发力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the company's medium to long-term profitability in AI infrastructure and corporate IT spending recovery [2][22]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and EPS in Q3 FY2026, driven by AI infrastructure demand and PC replacement cycles, with ISG showing double-digit growth for multiple quarters [2][12]. - Zscaler's Q3 FY2026 results showed strong performance with ARR reaching $3.2 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, indicating sustained contract lock-in [2][25]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the pace of AI order fulfillment and the impact of rising storage costs on profit margins [2][22]. Summary by Sections AI Infrastructure and Server Demand - The company reported a revenue of $27 billion in Q3, a double-digit year-over-year growth, with ISG revenue increasing by 24% to $14.1 billion [12][17]. - AI server orders reached $12.3 billion in the quarter, with a backlog of $18.4 billion, indicating strong demand sustainability [17][22]. Zscaler Performance - Zscaler's revenue for Q3 was $788 million, reflecting a 26% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter growth, with a gross margin of 79.9% [25][27]. - The company anticipates FY2026 Q2 revenue between $797 million and $799 million, projecting a 23% year-over-year growth [26]. NAND and Storage Market Trends - NAND spot prices have stabilized, with demand remaining resilient despite high prices, indicating ongoing supply chain dynamics [23][24]. - The report notes a slight decline in storage business revenue but highlights the continued strong demand for proprietary storage solutions [18][22].