Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious optimism for the home furnishing sector, with a recommendation to prefer leading companies with clear dividend attributes and retail transformation advantages [4][9]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing weak demand, with a significant decline in property transactions, but government policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to support gradual recovery [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector shows signs of stabilization and growth, particularly in the vapor segment, supported by regulatory actions against illegal products [10][11]. - The paper and packaging industry is witnessing price increases due to tightening supply and recovering demand, indicating potential for price recovery in finished paper products [11][12]. - The light consumer goods and trendy toys sectors are showing growth, with domestic brands outperforming foreign ones in certain categories [13][14]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 36.29% in new home transactions and 38.19% in second-hand home transactions as of December 12 [4][9]. - Government initiatives to stimulate consumption are expected to positively impact home furnishing demand recovery [4][9]. - Export data shows a decline of 8.83% in furniture exports from China, while Vietnam's furniture exports increased by 8.59% [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - The vapor segment is seeing regulatory support, with 18 states in the U.S. implementing vapor product regulations, which is expected to enhance sales for compliant brands like Vuse [10][11]. - The heated tobacco segment is experiencing increased promotional efforts, with expectations for significant growth by 2026 [10][11]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Prices for needle and broadleaf pulp have increased, with current prices at 5502 and 4605 RMB per ton respectively, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12]. - Packaging materials are also seeing price increases, with boxboard and corrugated paper prices rising by 7.46% and 13.71% respectively since August [12]. Light Consumer Goods and Trendy Toys - The toothpaste segment saw a 13% increase in online sales, while sanitary napkins experienced a modest 1.2% growth [13][24]. - The trendy toy sector is thriving, with online sales growth of 10%, and specific categories like blind box dolls growing by 33% [14][24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In November, the online apparel and accessories sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, with an increase in growth rate compared to October. The average temperature in November was 4.2°C, which is 0.9°C higher than the historical average but 0.9°C lower than last year, indicating robust sales despite lower temperatures [2][11] - The outdoor segment continues to lead the industry with brands like Descente, Kelong, and Aon running year-on-year growth rates of 32.8%, 32.4%, and 21.4% respectively. In the home textile and menswear sectors, brands like Luolai Life and Bosideng saw year-on-year growth of 16.0% and 8.8% respectively [2][11] - The report highlights the approval of two animal collagen products by the National Medical Products Administration, marking significant advancements in concentration, implant materials, and indications [3][13] Industry Data Tracking - In October, apparel retail sales grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate improving from September. This was attributed to seasonal promotions and a recovery in offline store traffic due to reduced extreme weather [4][19] - The cosmetics sector also showed resilience, with retail sales increasing by 9.6% year-on-year, reflecting a 11.6 percentage point increase from September [4][29] - The jewelry retail sector continued to recover, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in October, supported by rising gold prices and increased regional consumer enthusiasm [4][19] Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, Hai Lan Home is recommended for its innovative urban outlet expansion and strong profitability, while Li Ning is expected to see a turning point in 2025 [5][27] - In the beauty and personal care segment, recommendations include Juzi Biological for its strong data resilience and Jinbo Biological for its anticipated new product launches [5][31] - The gold and jewelry sector is recommended for brands with strong market presence, such as Laopu Gold, due to the favorable gold price trends [5][31]

新房景气度下行趋缓，二手房景气度底部企稳，成交量均出现小幅回落。政策方面，经济工作会议再提"去库存"，重 点是"因城施策"，一线城市重心是"优供给"，三四线城市侧重于"控增量"、"去库存"。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 新房方面，本周(12.6-12.12)景气度下行趋缓，新房销售面积小幅回落，47 城新房成交量环比-9.8%，同比-44.9%， 主要受季节性因素影响，降幅较上周走阔。 图表1：新房成交面积保持稳定 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1W 2W 3W 4W 5W 6W 7W 8W 9W 10W 11W 12W 13W 14W 15W 16W 17W 18W 19W 20W 21W 22W 23W 24W 25W 26W 27W 28W 29W 30W 31W 32W 33W 34W 35W 36W 37W 38W 39W 40W 41W 42W 43W 44W 45W 46W 47W 48W 49W 50W 51W 52W 47城新 ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价震荡走弱，地缘与供需博弈持续。委内瑞拉局势升级，美国军队在委内瑞拉海岸附近拦截并扣押 了一艘受制裁的油轮，同时表示准备拦截更多运输委内瑞拉石油的船只，以加大对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的压力。 此外哈萨克斯坦因里海管道联盟（CPC）旗下黑海码头遭袭受损将下调 2026 年石油产量计划。但乌美就安全保障 协议深入磋商，俄乌可能达成和平的前景压低油价，同时 EIA 月报称美国今年石油产量预计创下纪录高位，且宏 观需求疲软迹象，市场供应过剩担忧升温，油价震荡走弱。截止 12 月 12 日，WTI 现货收于 57.44 美元，环比- 2.64 美元；BRENT 现货收于 62.55 美元，环比-2.23 美元。EIA12 月 5 日当周商业原油库存环比-181.2 万桶，前 值+57.4 万桶。其中库欣原油环比+30.8 万桶，前值-45.7 万桶。汽油库存环比+639.7 万桶，前值+451.8 万桶。 炼厂开工率环比+0.4%至 94.5%。美国原油库存下降，净进口量环比增加。美国产量 13 ...

摘要 折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"25 高密 01"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中，"24 国 开投 MTN002"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"23 万科 MTN002"估值价格偏离幅度最大。 净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"25 农行二级资本债 01B(BC)"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级） | | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券名称 | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | 成交日期 | | 25 高密 01 | 4.27 | -0.28 | 105.07 | 7.22 | 3.93 | 5.25 | AA- | A ...

11 月社融存量增速持平于 8.5% 11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿，同比多增 1597 亿；较过去五年同期均值 2.3 万亿相比，今年 11 月新增社融规模与历史均 值相差不算大，落在过去五年同期新增规模的上沿。社融存量增速本月短暂持稳于 10 月水平，依然为 8.5%。 表外融资是本月社融同比多增的主要贡献项之一，企业债券是本月社融多增的另一支撑项 11 月表外融资项中的信托贷款、未贴现银票均同比多增，对社融形成支撑。2020 年以来 11 月新增信托贷款规模均较 10 月回落，本月走势反季节性，或与近期落地的新型政策性金融工具支持项目有关。此外，11 月企业债券新增 1788 亿至 4169 亿，新增规模为 2020 年以来同期新高，是直接融资项目中唯一多增的一项，也对社融形成支撑。 社融总量和信贷结构走势分化 虽然 11 月社融总体表现不差，但 11 月信贷仍然偏弱。其中企业部门信贷同比多增 3600 亿至 6100 亿，主要发力项是 企业短贷和票融，企业中长贷同比少增；居民部门信贷更是历史上同期首次负增长。 新增企业中长贷为 2016 年以来同期新低。今年企业部门信贷同比多增的原因之一在于 202 ...

基本内容 中央经济工作会议通稿在总基调和核心内容上与本周初的政治局会议基本一致，但篇幅更长、增量信息更多；同时， 对比去年和今年的会议通稿，我们又可以看到诸多变化。 风险提示 1）经济目标、赤字率、特别国债、专项债等数字安排需要到明年两会期间发布，当前评估尚存在不确定性；2）外部 环境仍然复杂多变，可能给国内经济工作重心和政策节奏带来扰动。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 中央经济工作会议通稿在总基调和核心内容上与本周初的政治局会议基本一致，但篇幅更长、增量信息更多；同时， 对比去年和今年的会议通稿，我们又可以看到诸多变化。 对形势评估更有信心。相比于往年，今年会议对于外部环境使用了"影响加深"这一相对中性的表述，去年会议则描 述为"不利影响加深"。今年对于内部问题指出"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的"，这一变化 呼应了今年中国在外交、经济、市场等方面的表现，也对应了防风险工作的顺位从去年的第五位降到今年的第八位。 财政政策更有定力。会议对财政政策"更加积极"的定调与去年一致，但细节更显定力。例如，指出"保持必要的" 财政赤字、债务规模和支出总量，去年则直接提出要"提高财政赤 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates confidence in its future development by repurchasing 8.14 million shares at an average price of 12.26 HKD, totaling 99.77 million HKD [2]. - The Hilo product line is gaining traction, with strong promotional efforts from British American Tobacco (BAT) leading to a 50% retention rate among traditional and heated tobacco consumers, which supports future sales growth [3]. - The core vaping business is recovering, benefiting from regulatory crackdowns on illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. and a shift in European markets towards compliant products. BAT expects revenue recovery in the U.S. market by the second half of 2025, with a projected market share increase [4]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding compliant vaping market in Europe and the U.S., with a focus on accelerating the global promotion of Hilo products by 2026 [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.22, 0.37, and 0.59 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 53, 31, and 20 [5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,168 million CNY in 2023 to 20,462 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.48% [10]. - The net profit is projected to recover from 1,303 million CNY in 2024 to 3,656 million CNY by 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the primary supply rhythm and secondary trading characteristics [9][20]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - From December 1st to 5th, 2025, local government bonds issued a total of 108.7 billion yuan, including 39 billion yuan in new special bonds and 17 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [9]. - "Ordinary/Project Revenue" and "Repayment of Existing Debts" are the main investment areas for special bond funds [9]. - As of December 5th, 2025, 1.1 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds have been issued in December, accounting for 30.5% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [9]. - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds has increased marginally. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have widened to 23.6BP, 24.5BP, and 19.2BP respectively [16]. - In December, Tianjin, Shandong, Shaanxi and other provinces are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds within 7 years in Tianjin reached 19.05 billion yuan, and the average coupon rate of local government bonds in Henan is close to 2.5% [19]. 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices fell 0.27% and 0.69% respectively month - on - month, with the decline similar to that of the same - term credit bonds [20]. - The trading activity of Henan government bonds increased, with a week - on - week increase of 123 transactions, while the trading volume of Jiangxi local bonds decreased significantly [20]. - The average trading terms of Liaoning and Jilin government bonds have been significantly extended, reaching 24.0 years and 24.2 years respectively, an increase of 11.0 years and 12.2 years compared to last week. The average trading yields of Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong government bonds rose to around 2.4% [22].

公司亮点 公司为我国美护行业领先企业，旗下拥有在护肤、婴童护理、洗护 等赛道的多品牌矩阵。公司以线上渠道为主，25H1 线上占比接近 93%，近两年主品牌韩束发力抖音渠道实现快速破圈，2024 年实现 收入 55.91 亿元，同比增长 80.90%，占比超 82%，25H1 营收同增 14.3%至 33.44 亿元。新品牌如一页快速破圈，23/24 全年/25H1 增 速分别为 498%/146%/147%。复盘公司发展的历程，我们认为公司 多品牌拓展方法论与运动龙头安踏体育有几个主要相似之处： 1)市场化主导。公司旗下品牌定位精准，可以快速发掘消费者痛 点，推出针对性产品的同时进行魄力营销，绑定顶流 IP，助力品 牌快速破圈。主品牌韩束成功后将这一方法论推广到其他品牌。 2)渠道精细化运营趋势。随着内容电商成为化妆品消费的核心场 景，公司以抖音为核心重构渠道战略，通过创新营销玩法与提升自 播比例等精细化运营，实现收入与利润的双高增长。 3)人才内部输血+合理引才。公司通过自主培养+外部引才双轨并 进的方式保障核心管理人才的稳健，同时通过人才妥善委任为旗 下各品牌的差异化发展提供坚实保障。 投资逻辑 我们充分 ...