投资逻辑 商业航天全球产业共振方兴未艾，2026 年中国商业火箭公司将迎来多款中大型火箭的首飞及回收验证，2027 年有望 开始火箭密集发射及卫星大规模组网。我们从一二级产业研究的视角，梳理了商业火箭产业链的各个环节发展现状、 技术方向及投资标的。 商业火箭的发射成功记录以及对应的运载能力能够体现这家公司在未来商业运营中的竞争力。成功完成大载荷或可回 收飞行的商业火箭公司有望在可靠性和成本方面取得先发优势，2026~2027 年是中国商业火箭公司关键的验证窗口 期。从发射历史来看，至今发射成功的商业火箭多为中性和小型固体火箭，天兵科技、蓝箭航天有中大型液体火箭发 射记录。从运载能力来看，在不回收的情况下，800 公里近极轨道载荷能力至少需要做到 2.8 吨才能实现盈利。从回 收经验来看，商业火箭公司中朱雀三号在 2025 年 12 月进行了一子级返回回收场试验，预计 2026 年大部分商业火箭 公司都将进行可回收验证。由于回收可能牺牲载荷运载能力，部分公司可能在发展初期选择以一次性火箭来协助卫星 组网。回收方式方面，宇石空间、大航跃迁、深蓝航天等公司预计进行"筷子"捕获臂回收方式的研发。 发动机的设计能力、推 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the CXO sector for the year 2026, indicating strong demand and recovery in global orders [3][26]. Core Insights - Illumina's release of the Billion Cell Atlas marks a significant advancement in life sciences, transitioning from static genomic data to a comprehensive dataset that integrates AI for drug discovery [3][8]. - Regulatory developments in China and the US are accelerating drug approval processes, with China's implementation of eCTD and the US FDA's support for Bayesian methods enhancing clinical trial efficiency [3][23]. - The CXO sector is expected to see robust growth, supported by major players like Lonza and WuXi AppTec, who are expanding capacity and reporting increased order volumes [3][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Frontiers - Illumina's Billion Cell Atlas is the largest human genome perturbation dataset to date, aimed at accelerating drug discovery through AI [3][8]. - Regulatory dynamics indicate a race for faster drug approvals, with China's NMPA adopting eCTD and the FDA endorsing Bayesian statistical methods for clinical trials [3][23]. - The global order recovery is evident, with a positive outlook for the CXO sector throughout 2026, as major companies report growth and increased demand [3][26]. Capital Trends - GSK's acquisition of RAPT Therapeutics for $2.2 billion focuses on developing an anti-IgE monoclonal antibody for food allergies, highlighting the potential in the allergy treatment market [4][31]. - Novartis has entered a $1.5 billion agreement with SciNeuro to advance a new antibody project targeting Alzheimer's disease, indicating ongoing investment in neurodegenerative treatments [4][36]. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the transition to an AI-driven era in drug discovery, suggesting that previous advantages in research may diminish as the landscape evolves [5][37]. - The demand for CXO services is expected to remain strong, driven by AI-enabled drug discovery and regulatory advancements [5][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The primary market for science and technology innovation bonds continues to grow at a high - speed. The secondary market's performance is closely tied to the capital flow of science and technology innovation bond ETFs, with short - term bonds expected to remain volatile. High - grade medium - and short - term bonds in hard - tech fields such as communications and pharmaceuticals will continue to receive liquidity premiums [2][4] Summary by Directory I. How Aggressive are Science and Technology Innovation Bonds? 1. Primary Issuance Scale and Structure - The primary market for science and technology innovation bonds maintains a high - speed growth trend. From January 12 to January 16, 2026, the new supply scale of science and technology innovation bonds reached 58.92 billion yuan, with bonds with a term of less than 1 year accounting for about 60%. The overall market demand for new science and technology innovation bonds has recovered, but the subscription enthusiasm is still lower than that of non - science and technology credit bonds [2][12] 2. Secondary Trading Activity and Pricing - **Rating and Industry Distribution**: The ratings of outstanding science and technology innovation bonds are highly concentrated. Bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above account for 73.3%, and AA - rated medium - quality individual bonds account for 22.4%. The industry distribution is dominated by traditional industries, and bonds in construction decoration, public utilities, and comprehensive industries account for 38.7%. Textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, communications, power equipment, and non - banking finance industries have an excess spread of over 9bp compared to all credit bonds in the industry [3][19] - **Liquidity**: In late December 2025, the science and technology innovation bond ETF had a volume - boosting market, which strongly pushed up the turnover rate of component bonds. However, at the beginning of 2026, continuous capital outflows caused the turnover rate of science and technology innovation bonds to drop to 1.65% [3][26] - **Yield**: Due to the partial alleviation of negative factors affecting the bond market such as the "seesaw effect" of the stock market and the disappointment of monetary easing expectations, the average yield of high - grade science and technology innovation bonds on the exchange with a term of 1 - 3 years has dropped to 1.94%. The price of 3 - 5 - year bonds fluctuated in a narrow range, which is related to the ETF capital outflows during the week [3][29] - **Internal Pricing of Bond Types**: In the latest week, the spread between the component bonds and non - component bonds of the science and technology innovation bond index has marginally increased to 20.2bp, and the spread between inter - bank bonds and component bonds has also widened to 5.1bp. For 1 - 3 - year bonds, there is still a compression space of 17bp between inter - bank bonds and index component bonds [4][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic growth is characterized by slower steel inventory accumulation compared to previous years, with power plant daily consumption fluctuating at a high level, while inflation shows a nationwide increase in pork prices and oil prices oscillating within a range [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Economic Growth: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years 3.1.1 Production: High - level Fluctuation of Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption is fluctuating at a high level. On January 20, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 857,000 tons, a 3.8% increase from January 13. On January 16, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.152 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from January 8 [5][12] - The overall blast furnace operating rate has declined. On January 16, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 9, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from January 9. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 0.8 percentage points to 90.8% on January 16 compared to January 9 [5][16] - The tire operating rate has significantly rebounded. On January 15, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.9%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from January 8, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 73.4%, a 7.6 - percentage - point increase from January 8. Meanwhile, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline [5][19] 3.1.2 Demand: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 20, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 160,000 square meters, a 48.0% decrease from the same period in December, a 39.5% decrease from the same period in January last year, and a 38.4% decrease from the same period in January 2024 [5][25] - The retail growth of the automotive market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][29] - Steel prices have declined weakly. On January 20, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively compared to January 13. The inventory accumulation of steel is slower than in previous years [5][34] - Cement prices have continued to break previous lows. On January 20, the national cement price index decreased by 0.6% compared to January 13, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showing slightly weaker performance than the national average [5][37] - The glass price has ended its rebound. On January 20, the active glass futures contract price was 1,064 yuan/ton, a 4.9% decrease from January 13 [5][42] - The near - end decline of the container shipping freight rate index has widened. On January 16, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][46] 3.2 Inflation: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices - Pork prices have increased nationwide. On January 20, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.5 yuan/kg, a 2.4% increase from January 13. The month - on - month price has turned upward [5][50] - The agricultural product price index has increased seasonally before the Spring Festival. On January 20, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.6% compared to January 13. By variety, the price increases are in the order of eggs (5.7%) > pork (2.4%) > vegetables (2.4%) > fruits (1.3%) > mutton (0.7%) > beef (0.4%) > chicken (- 1.3%) [5][54] 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Oscillation within a Range - Oil prices are oscillating within a range. On January 20, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.1 and $60.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.9% and 1.3% decrease from January 13 [5][57] - Copper and aluminum prices have declined. On January 20, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.3% and 1.5% respectively compared to January 13. The domestic commodity index has turned upward month - on - month [5][61] - Industrial product prices have shown mixed month - on - month changes. Since January, the prices of glass, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial product prices have decreased month - on - month. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged [64]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 133.01 RMB per share based on a 85x PE valuation for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 28.5 billion RMB [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic industrial control sector, benefiting from overseas market expansion, deepening in niche markets, and product matrix expansion. The projected CAGR for revenue and net profit from 2020 to 2024 is 30% and 29%, respectively, indicating long-term stable growth amidst industry cycle fluctuations [2]. - The company is strategically positioned in the humanoid robot core actuator sector, collaborating with industry leaders to accelerate industrialization and build a new growth engine [2]. - The company has established a clear "one core, two new" product strategy, focusing on industrial automation, green energy, and embodied intelligence, which is expected to drive future growth [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamentals - The company has been deeply engaged in the industrial automation control field for 20 years, evolving from a frequency converter manufacturer to a comprehensive solution provider [13]. - The overseas revenue share reached 27% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in international market penetration [16]. - The company’s revenue and net profit are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% and 29% from 2020 to 2024, respectively, with a strong performance in 2021 due to domestic manufacturing recovery [16][19]. 2. Growth Drivers - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see mass production starting in 2026, with the company well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [34]. - The company has established a complete product matrix for humanoid robots, including various actuator solutions, and is actively integrating resources with partners to enhance market competitiveness [44][46]. 3. Basic Landscape - The global industrial automation market is approximately 4-5 times larger than the domestic market, with higher average gross margins overseas [3]. - The company’s overseas revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 76% from 2020 to 2024, with significant contributions from emerging markets [3]. - The domestic automation market is expected to recover gradually, with a projected CAGR of over 15% from 2025 to 2027 [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 280 million RMB, 335 million RMB, and 402 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 14.3%, 19.6%, and 20.0% [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust operational performance in the industrial control sector and its leading position in overseas market expansion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's main brand experienced a slight decline in retail revenue in Q4, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth. Other brands not included in the new additions recorded a significant growth of 35-40% [2][3]. - The overall performance for 2025 indicates low single-digit growth for the main brand, mid-single-digit growth for FILA, and 45-50% growth for other brands [2][4]. - The company is focusing on maintaining healthy inventory and operational quality, with expectations for continued growth in its multi-brand matrix [4][5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4, the main brand's retail revenue saw a low single-digit decline due to external demand and competitive pressures, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands recorded a robust 35-40% growth [2][3]. - For the full year of 2025, the main brand is projected to achieve low single-digit growth, FILA mid-single-digit growth, and other brands 45-50% growth [2]. Operational Analysis - The main brand's Q4 revenue slightly decreased, but the overall annual revenue showed steady growth. The online discount rate narrowed by 2 percentage points to approximately 55% [3]. - FILA's Q4 revenue growth accelerated compared to previous quarters, with offline sales showing high single-digit growth and online sales low double-digit growth [3][4]. - The company is expanding its new store formats, with significant performance from the Champion series and continued international expansion [3][4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.74, 5.06, and 5.70 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [5]. - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages despite short-term adjustments in operations and retail environments [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 200 RMB and a valuation of 55 times PE for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in PCB direct imaging technology, experiencing significant growth due to increased capital expenditure in the AI-PCB industry, with a projected sales revenue of 685 million RMB in 2024, capturing a 15% market share globally [2][34]. - The advanced packaging segment is expected to benefit from the CoWoS-L trend, with the company's WLP series products already securing over 100 million RMB in orders [3][54]. - The company is also entering the laser drilling equipment market, with potential for growth as domestic suppliers are expected to replace foreign competitors [4]. Summary by Sections PCB Direct Imaging Leader - The company is positioned as the global leader in PCB direct imaging equipment, with a sales revenue of 685 million RMB in 2024 and a market share of 15% [34]. - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 30% year-on-year, with a record monthly shipment of over 100 units in March 2025 [2][38]. - The second-phase production capacity is expected to be more than double that of the first phase, potentially reaching over 1500 units through optimized scheduling [2][40]. Advanced Semiconductor Business - The direct imaging technology is well-suited for the CoWoS-L process, which is anticipated to dominate the market, with TSMC's CoWoS-L capacity expected to exceed 50% by the end of 2026 [3][42]. - The company’s WLP series products are already aiding leading advanced packaging manufacturers in mass production, with expectations to ramp up production in the second half of 2026 [54]. Laser Drilling New Entrant - The company has developed a range of laser drilling equipment, which is crucial for HDI and FPC applications, and is currently undergoing validation with several leading clients [4][61]. - The market for laser drilling equipment is expected to grow as PCB companies focus on HDI technology, providing opportunities for domestic suppliers to capture market share [4][63]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 281 million, 480 million, and 675 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 80x, 47x, and 33x [5][73]. - The overall revenue is expected to reach 13.58 billion, 21.97 billion, and 29.95 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with significant year-on-year growth rates [5][73].

- The report discusses the performance of the four major stock index futures contracts (IF, IC, IM, IH) over the past week, highlighting that IC had the largest increase of 2.09%, while IH experienced the largest decline of -1.65%[3][11] - The average trading volume of all contracts increased compared to the previous week, with IM showing the largest increase of 46.74% and IH the smallest at 23.37%[3][11] - The basis rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH as of last Friday's close were -0.183%, -0.271%, -0.650%, and 0.151%, respectively, with IF and IM narrowing their discounts, IC deepening its discount, and IH expanding its premium[3][11] - The intertemporal spread rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were at the 54.00%, 9.70%, 8.00%, and 41.50% percentiles of their historical distributions since 2019, with IF and IH at normal levels and IC and IM at relatively low levels[4][12] - The report calculates the theoretical arbitrage opportunities for IF contracts, indicating that with an annualized return of 5% and 21 trading days remaining, the basis rate for positive and negative arbitrage would need to reach 0.74% and -1.35%, respectively, but no such opportunities currently exist[4][12] - Dividend forecasts for the next year suggest that the impact on index points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices will be 80.98, 92.22, 72.38, and 69.57, respectively[4][12] - The report outlines a method for predicting dividend points based on historical dividend patterns, using formulas that incorporate EPS, payout ratios, and component stock weights[58][59][60]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Hongdu Aviation (600316.SH) as a first-time coverage [3]. Core Views - Hongdu Aviation is a leading domestic manufacturer of military training aircraft, benefiting from the rising demand for both training and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) [1][2]. - The company has a comprehensive product line that includes primary, basic, and advanced training aircraft, positioning it uniquely in the market [1][2]. - The global military trade environment is improving, with the company expected to see significant growth in international sales, particularly with its K-8 training aircraft [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hongdu Aviation is recognized as a cradle for training aircraft in China, integrating research, production, and operations, with a focus on both training aircraft and defense products [14]. - The company has undergone asset restructuring to enhance its core competencies in training aircraft and missile production [14][17]. Market Position and Demand - The company is a rare full-spectrum training aircraft assembly unit in China, poised to benefit from the upward trend in the training aircraft and UAV markets [1][2]. - The global demand for training aircraft is increasing, with many countries seeking cost-effective solutions for pilot training [2][45]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 77.0 billion, 119.6 billion, and 159.1 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +46.6%, +55.4%, and +33.0% [3][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.2 billion, 2.0 billion, and 2.7 billion RMB, reflecting significant growth rates of +203.8%, +70.4%, and +34.6% [3][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company offers integrated training solutions that include pilot training, ground crew training, and operational support, enhancing its competitive edge in military exports [2][3]. - Hongdu Aviation's "air-to-surface" missile production capabilities provide a significant advantage, simplifying the development and certification processes for military equipment [2][3]. International Sales Growth - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 137% in foreign revenue from 2020 to 2024, indicating a strong position in the international military trade market [2][3][26]. - The K-8 training aircraft has captured a 26.3% market share in the global mid-to-high level training aircraft segment, establishing a solid foundation for future exports [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in its performance, with a projected net profit of RMB 2.45-2.65 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.8%-15.51% [2][4]. - The significant quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 2025 is attributed to the recovery of downstream demand and the growth of new business areas such as commercial aerospace [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the full year of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of RMB 2.45-2.65 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%-15.51% [2]. - In Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit of RMB 88.16-108 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%-30.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 123%-173% [2][4]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company focuses on its core business and aims for a dual-driven strategy that integrates manufacturing and services [2]. - It is actively expanding into new sectors, including commercial aerospace, and has signed a project cooperation agreement with the Hangzhou Yunqi Town Management Committee, planning to invest at least RMB 300 million [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 2.57 billion, RMB 3.31 billion, and RMB 3.99 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 12.08%, 28.85%, and 20.56% [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 35, 27, and 23 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The company is positioned to benefit from high-growth sectors such as military, semiconductor, new energy, and commercial aerospace [4]. - Continuous innovation in testing equipment and expanding laboratory qualifications are key strategies to enhance its market presence [3].