业绩简评 2026 年 1 月 29 日，公司公布 25Q4 业绩。25Q4 营收 36.55 亿美元， 同比+43.6%，环比+14.4%。25Q4 公司 GAAP 毛利率为 11.8%，GAAP 净利润为 2.67 亿美元，同比+76%，其中有 6140 万美元来自收益 互换的衍生品。25Q4 公司 Non-GAAP 毛利率为 11.3%，Non-GAAP 净利润为 2.19 亿美元，同比+68%。 公司指引 26Q1 营收为 3.85~4.15 亿美元，Non-GAAP 营业利润率为 7.8%，Non-GAAP EPS 为 1.95~2.15 美元。公司上调全年营收至 170 亿美元（之前为 160 亿美元），26 年 Non-GAAP EPS 为 8.75 美元（之 前预期 8.2 美元），公司预计全年资本开支约 10 亿美元。 经营分析 公司数据中心快速增长，25Q4 公司云与连接解决方案收入 28.6 亿美元，同比+64%，其中交换机相关的通信终端市场收入 21.1 亿 美元，同比+79%。随着主要 ASIC 客户新一代产品的顺利量产爬坡， 公司服务器相关的企业终端市场收入 25Q4 为 7.45 ...

业绩简评 2026 年 1 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，公司预计 2025 年 实现归母净利润 70-84 亿元，与上年同期（按合并完成后重述口 径）相比，增加 27.8-41.8 亿元，同比增加约 65.89%至 99.07%， 业绩显著改善。 经营分析 行业基本面近期边际改善，新造船价格回升，中国造船全球份额 提升。根据克拉克森，2025 年 12 月全球新船价格指数达 184.65， 环比+0.17%，是 25 年 7 月份以来首次实现月度环比提升。此外， 从订单量上看，25 年 12 月全球新接订单 2488.5 万 DWT，中国新 接订单 2153.3 万 DWT，新接订单全球份额达 86.5%，环比 11 月提 升 20.1pcts，中国造船竞争力提升。 行业周期持续上行，公司订单饱满，叠加前期高价船陆续交付，看 好公司未来利润率持续提升。我们认为本轮船舶周期仍处于上行 阶段，全球造船产能供不应求，同时叠加 2025 年低基数因素，2026 年全球造船订单有望实现量价齐升。公司作为全球造船龙头，在手 订单充足。2025 年 12 月 8 日，公司实际控制人中国船舶集团与中 国远洋 ...

公司公告 2026 年 1 月 28 日，公司拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买特 福国际 51.55%股权、使其成为全资子公司，同时拟向不超过 35 名 特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金。发行价格为 10.8 元/股，不低 于前 60 个交易日均价的 80%。交易完成后公司仍无实际控制人。目 前审计、评估工作未完成，标的资产交易价格尚未确定。 经营分析 （1）增厚上市公司归母净利润，引入优质股东、深度绑定上市公司 利益：定增落地后，特福国际（非洲和南美洲等全部海外业务平台） 持股比例将从 48.45%提升至 100%，2025 年特福国际初步预估收入 81.87 亿元，净利润 14.74 亿元，显著增厚上市公司归母净利。 （2）加纳加码玻璃产能：公司拟投资 9472 万美元、折合 6.6 亿元， 于加纳投产日产 600 吨浮法玻璃项目，项目建设期预计 19-20 个月。 加纳产品可出口至科特迪瓦、塞内加尔、布基纳法索等周边国家， 公司自 2017 年在加纳投资运营建筑陶瓷生产项目及洁具项目，已积 累丰富的本地运营经验，能够保障相关生产要素的稳定供应。 森大集团在本次交易前持有特福国际 30.88%股权，作为公 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global natural gas industry has undergone a complete cycle from demand collapse and low prices to supply shocks and price surges, leading to a structural reshaping of global trade patterns [2][13] - By 2025, the global natural gas market is expected to be in a state of "tight balance" with demand growth slowing to 0.9% and supply remaining tight due to reliance on North American LNG projects [2][4] - The LNG market is entering a "super expansion cycle" from 2026 to 2030, with an expected cumulative addition of approximately 202 million tons of LNG capacity, primarily concentrated in North America and the Middle East [3][47] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2020-2024: From Supply Shock to Structural Reshaping of Trade Patterns - The global natural gas industry experienced extreme price fluctuations, with TTF spot prices rising from an average of about 4-5 USD/MMBtu in 2020 to 80-90 USD/MMBtu in August 2022, before falling back to around 10 USD/MMBtu by 2025 [13] - The EU's LNG import share increased from 9% in 2021 to about 19% in 2023, while the US became the largest LNG exporter with 88.4 million tons in 2024 [22] 2. Current Situation in 2025: Tight Balance and Regional Demand Differentiation - The global natural gas market is characterized by a "tight balance" with demand growth slowing to approximately 0.9%, driven by high prices and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4] - North American LNG supply is expected to increase significantly, with major contributions from projects like Plaquemines and Corpus Christi [32][35] 3. Outlook for 2026-2030: Supply Side - LNG "Super Expansion Cycle" - 2026 is projected to be a critical turning point for the global LNG "super expansion cycle," with an expected cumulative addition of about 202 million tons of LNG capacity, representing a 40% increase from 2025 [3][47] - The supply landscape is shifting from a "multi-polar" to a "US-Qatar dual-core" model, enhancing the pricing power of LNG in global markets [3][47] 4. Outlook for 2026-2030: Demand Side - Moderate Growth and Regional Differentiation - Global natural gas demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.56% from 2025 to 2030, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly driven by China [4][41] - European demand is anticipated to decline due to renewable energy substitution and decarbonization policies, while North American demand growth is projected to be below 1% [4][41] 5. US Gas Prices: Price Upcycle Driven by LNG Exports and Power Demand - The US natural gas market is transitioning from a tight balance to a shortage, with Henry Hub prices expected to rise significantly by 2027, supported by LNG exports and power demand from data centers [5][6] - The cost of new natural gas wells in the US is projected to stabilize between 3-3.5 USD/MMBtu, providing a long-term price floor for Henry Hub [5][6]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of the A-share market amidst multiple overseas risks and signals of regulatory easing in China, suggesting that the relationship between market performance and regulatory changes warrants further consideration [5][12] - It highlights the significant outperformance of the A-share market compared to other major indices, particularly the CSI 300, which has faced substantial redemption pressure [5][12] - The report suggests that investors should not overly worry about the CSI 300's performance, as it has already aligned with regulatory easing requirements, reducing the necessity for further pressure [5][12] Group 2: Economic Insights - China's exports continued to show strong performance in December, driven by overseas investment during a global easing cycle, positively impacting sectors like electrical and mechanical equipment [6][13] - Domestic consumption is recovering, with a rebound in per capita consumer spending in the fourth quarter, aligning with the report's annual strategy predictions [6][13] - The report notes that recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing real estate are expected to support synchronized recovery in both domestic and external demand [6][13] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Recommendations - The report identifies a dual focus for 2026 on physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments being essential [7][16] - Recommended sectors include physical assets such as copper, aluminum, tin, gold, lithium, and oil, alongside Chinese equipment export chains like electrical grid equipment and renewable energy [7][16] - The report also highlights sectors benefiting from capital market expansion and improving long-term asset returns, such as non-bank financials and consumer sectors like aviation and duty-free retail [7][16] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - **Yunnan Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ)**: The report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and a strong balance sheet, with potential for increased dividends [18] - **Hua Aluminum (600301.SH)**: The company is seen as a strong growth candidate due to rising tin and antimony prices and its position as a key beneficiary of metal consolidation in Guangxi [19] - **Yingliu Co. (603308.SH)**: The report anticipates a surge in global gas turbine demand, positioning the company to increase its market share in turbine blades [20] - **Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ)**: The company is recognized for its strong cash flow from cement operations and potential for significant dividends [21] - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in the entertainment market through IP incubation and diverse monetization strategies [22] - **China Duty Free Group (601888.SH)**: The company is projected to strengthen its market position in the duty-free sector, benefiting from increased inbound tourism and overseas expansion [24] - **China Southern Airlines (1055.HK)**: The airline is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics and a large fleet size [25] - **Li Auto (2015.HK)**: The company is focusing on advancements in AI and smart driving technology, with expectations for increased vehicle sales [26] - **Lante Optics (688127.SH)**: The company is positioned to benefit from strong demand in automotive and smart imaging sectors [27] - **InnoCare Pharma (9606.HK)**: The company is advancing in the ADC field with a robust pipeline and partnerships, with several products nearing clinical registration [29]

一、一级供给节奏 风险提示 上周（2026.1.19-2026.1.23，下同）地方政府债共发行 2315.71 亿元，其中，新增专项债 644.21 亿元，再融资专项 债为 1178.48 亿元。分募集资金用途来看，"置换隐性债务"、"普通/项目收益"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，1 月特殊再融资专项债发行约 2542.72 亿元，特殊再融资债占当月地方债发行规模的比例达到 29.45%。 发行定价方面，10 年、20 年及 30 年地方债发行利率分别下行 2.2BP、3.3BP、5.8BP，周度降幅较大；从利差角度 看，新券与同期限国债间利差有不小压缩，特别是 20 年、30 年品种利差已降至去年 8 月下旬以来最低水平。 分地区来看，年初四川、山东、浙江是地方债发行的主要区域，而山东、湖北发行 10 年以上地方债占比超过 80%， 且两地平均发行利率均在 2.3%以上，尤其是湖北省地方债发行利率达到 2.44%。 二、二级交易特征 地方债连续两周缩量上涨。上周 7-10 年、10 年以上地方债指数分别上涨 0.24%、0.72%，10 年以上地方债大幅跑赢高 等级信用 ...

内外需共振，多重因素驱动电网设备行业景气度提升。在全球能源结构转型与数字技术革命的背景下，中国电网 设备行业正迎来历史性的发展窗口，核心逻辑在于国内"十五五"顶层规划下的确定性投资，与全球能源基础设施升 级及 AI 算力革命所催生的海外旺盛需求，形成了有效内外共振。国内方面，为破解新能源消纳与新型负荷激增的核 心矛盾，以特高压为骨干、配电网为支撑的新型电力系统建设已全面提速；海外方面，全球电网升级浪潮与 AI 数据 中心爆发式增长，共同推升了高端电力设备的迭代需求，为具备技术与成本优势的龙头企业打开了广阔的出海空间。 $$\sqrt{1+\sqrt{4+\sqrt{11}}}$$ 广发恒生 A 股电网设备 ETF（基金代码：159320）是广发基金管理有限公司旗下的一只 ETF 指数型基金，跟踪 恒生 A 股电网设备指数，基金经理夏浩洋。截至 2026 年 1 月 19 日，该基金上市以来（2024 年 12 月 24 日起始）净 值走势与恒生 A 股电网设备指数始终保持高度一致步调，很好地实现了对于目标指数的有效复制，为投资者布局电网 设备领域提供了一揽子解决方案。 强主干、重智能、固基础，高度聚焦现代化升 ...

公司公告 2026 年 1 月 28 日，公司拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买特 福国际 51.55%股权、使其成为全资子公司，同时拟向不超过 35 名 特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金。发行价格为 10.8 元/股，不低 于前 60 个交易日均价的 80%。交易完成后公司仍无实际控制人。目 前审计、评估工作未完成，标的资产交易价格尚未确定。 经营分析 （1）增厚上市公司归母净利润，引入优质股东、深度绑定上市公司 利益：定增落地后，特福国际（非洲和南美洲等全部海外业务平台） 持股比例将从 48.45%提升至 100%，2025 年特福国际初步预估收入 81.87 亿元，净利润 14.74 亿元，显著增厚上市公司归母净利。 森大集团在本次交易前持有特福国际 30.88%股权，作为公司海外业 务长期合作伙伴，交易后森大集团将成为公司股东，增强其与公司 战略利益的深度绑定。森大集团是中国最早进入非洲、美洲等海外 市场的国际贸易企业之一，长期深耕非洲地区市场（20 余年发展）， 已在非洲地区建立广泛的产品营销及供应链渠道。 （2）加纳加码玻璃产能：公司拟投资 9472 万美元、折合 6.6 亿元， 于加纳投产日产 6 ...

Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both transaction volume and prices, with second-hand housing transactions in key cities continuing to increase[2] - As of January 25, 2026, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 22 cities saw a year-on-year decline of only -13.0%, a significant improvement from -26.8% the previous month[5] - The average transaction area for second-hand houses in 22 cities reached 279.0 million square meters, the highest level since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7%[5] Price Dynamics - The decline in second-hand housing prices has slowed, with the national average listing price decreasing by only -0.7% month-on-month in January 2026, compared to a consistent decline of around -1.3% in the previous six months[12] - In January 2026, the month-on-month price changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.3%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively, showing improvement from the end of 2025[12] Demand and Supply Factors - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to a "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand housing demand, with new housing sales declining significantly in January 2026[19] - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with the total sales area of new and second-hand homes in Shanghai in 2025 reaching 3,474.8 million square meters, slightly higher than in 2024[34] Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative decline in housing prices has reached 37.0% for listing prices and 40.5% for transaction prices since the peak in July 2021, indicating a significant correction compared to other countries[39] - The rental yield in December 2025 rose to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, suggesting a more balanced market[54] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with the pace of recovery dependent on short-term factors such as rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings[65] - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be crucial for assessing the market's stabilization and potential recovery[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating continued growth in its multi-brand strategy [4]. Core Insights - The acquisition of approximately 29.06% of PUMA for €35 per share, totaling around €1.506 billion (approximately RMB 12.28 billion), positions the company as PUMA's largest shareholder, enhancing its "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy [2][3]. - The acquisition aims to leverage PUMA's global influence in professional sports sectors such as football, running, and esports, addressing the company's current weaknesses in these areas while enhancing its international competitiveness [3]. - The company plans to provide strategic support to PUMA while respecting its brand independence, aiming for long-term value creation through collaboration [3]. Financial Projections - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at RMB 4.74, RMB 5.06, and RMB 5.70, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 78.35 billion, RMB 86.37 billion, and RMB 94.99 billion, with growth rates of 10.62%, 10.24%, and 9.97% respectively [9]. - The net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at RMB 13.25 billion, RMB 14.14 billion, and RMB 15.94 billion, with growth rates of -15.02%, 6.70%, and 12.75% respectively [9].