那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数回落至 40% 可能一定程度受到元旦节前成交清淡影响，本期多数指标分位值回落，机构杠杆、1/10Y 国债换手率、货币松紧预期、 不动产比价分位值分别下降 57、39、16、14 个百分点，剩余指标分位值也不同程度回落；除此外，债基止盈压力、长 期国债成交占比、TL/T 多空比、上市公司理财买入量、基金分歧度分位值上升 55、18、12、11、4 个百分点外。当前 拥挤度较高的指标仅包括 30/10Y 国债换手率。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比仍为 25% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量仍为 5 个（占比 25%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 5 个（占比 25%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 10 个（占比 50%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 国债换手率、机构杠杆 均由过热区间降至中性区间，货币松紧预期由中性区间降至偏冷区间；长期国债成交占比则由中性区间升至过热取件， 债基止盈压力由偏冷区间升至过热区间。（注：指标分位值大于等于 70%，则指标位于偏热区间；指标分位值小于 40%， 则指标位于偏冷区间；其余位于中性区间。下同） 各类利差均值明显 ...

岁末：无序波动与储备票息。 回望 2025，债市以如虹涨势启幕，却以超预期波动贯穿始终。收官之月更是全年胶着与无序的缩影：持有收益在数日 回调中消磨殆尽，超长端波动尤甚。债市涨跌缺乏规律之际，叠加岁末考核压力，债市避险情绪促使各类账户配置行 为趋于一致。投资者普遍弃长取短，将头寸高度集中于 1 年至 3 年期票息资产，试图以久期的收缩对抗净值的不确定 性。基金是驱动中短债配置的主力，近期单周最高净买入规模达到 212 亿，超过 10 月至年底的周度均值。理财配置 信用债则稍显克制，与年末资金回表有一定关系。 开局：交易空间的度量。 回溯 2025 年 9 月 5 日，征求意见稿的出台曾因赎回费焦虑引发债市负反馈，偏交易属性资产首当其冲，5 年期国股行 二级资本债收益率一度攀升至 2.26%的高点。如今监管脉络迎来实质性反转，修复行情是否蓄势待发？以最朴素的比 价市场来观察，对比不同券种当前估值收益与 9 月 5 日定价来看，除了 10 年及以上超长信用债之外，银行次级债收 益普遍高于当时点位 10bp 以上，而 5 年以内信用债定价与 9 月初水平较为接近。若仅考虑交易的安全边际，银行次 级债及超长信用债用债 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected dynamic PE ratios of 30x, 23x, and 20x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Core Insights - The company announced a stock option incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant a total of 15.4 million stock options, accounting for 0.92% of the total share capital prior to the announcement [2] - The performance targets for the stock option plan are set with a base of the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, aiming for a CAGR of at least 107%, 73%, and 62.5% for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [3] - The company is positioned as a "Grand Slam" player in the specialty glass fiber market, with accelerated capacity expansion and market share growth expected from the successful implementation of a private placement to fund specialty glass fiber projects [4] Financial Projections - The projected net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.002 billion, 2.608 billion, and 3.060 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a significant recovery from a low of 892 million in 2024 [5] - Revenue is expected to grow from 23.984 billion RMB in 2024 to 30.073 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth rate of 25.39% [9] - The company anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of 10.19%, 12.30%, and 13.28% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating improving profitability [9]

基本内容 特朗普在第一任期就表现出门罗主义倾向，对西半球不够亲美的国家政权在意识形态等方面存在天然的个人好恶。临 近中选，打击马杜罗政府更有利于巩固和提升基本盘的支持。最好的情况是，如果能在委内瑞拉扶植起亲美政权，将 有利于特朗普压低油价。从全球能源版图来看，委内瑞拉拥有极其显著的资源战略地位。然而，由于设施老化和国际 制裁等原因，委内瑞拉的实际产出与储量潜力严重脱节。考虑到委内瑞拉拥有较高的原油释放潜能，不难理解为何特 朗普声称将"强势介入"委内瑞拉石油产业，然而这一愿景首先要依托于美国对委内瑞拉政府的影响力。其次，在"美 国对委内瑞拉影响力显著上升"的假设下，更现实的介入方式并非直接接管油田资产，而是通过规则与交易结构实现 对"可出口原油"的事实控制。如果美国推动"美企控盘式"的委内瑞拉增产，短期油价更可能被"风险溢价+OPEC+ 控制供给节奏"托住甚至回升，而非因增产预期迅速下跌。中期来看，即便委内瑞拉出现"修复型增产"，OPEC+仍有 较大空间通过放缓增产或减少其他地区增量进行对冲，从而使全球基准油价的下行幅度受到抑制。 风险提示 1）事件发生时间较短，委内瑞拉国内政治局势尚不明朗，美委关系走向存在较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The duration of general credit bonds has significantly shortened. As of December 31, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.58 years and 2.19 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.01 years, 3.31 years, and 1.73 years respectively. The duration of other financial bonds, such as securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds, also shortened compared to the previous week [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index has decreased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index has declined. This week, it decreased compared to last week and is currently at the 40.9% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Full - Variety Term Overview - As of December 31, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.58 years and 2.19 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds had weighted average trading terms of 4.01 years, 3.31 years, and 1.73 years respectively. General commercial financial bonds were at a relatively low historical level, while secondary capital bonds were at a relatively high historical level. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.41 years, 1.43 years, 3.06 years, and 1.35 years respectively, and all shortened compared to the previous week. Securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at low historical percentiles [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index decreased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, it declined this week compared to last week and is at the 40.9% level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading term of urban investment bonds hovered around 1.65 years. The duration of Shaanxi provincial - level urban investment bonds extended to 4.88 years, while the trading duration of Hebei provincial - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 0.61 years. The historical percentiles of the durations of Fujian district - level and Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds exceeded 90%, and the duration of Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds was approaching its highest since 2021 [3][16]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened compared to the previous week, generally around 1.84 years. The trading duration of the basic chemical industry extended to 2.33 years, while that of the food and beverage industry shortened to 0.80 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a low historical percentile, and that of the pharmaceutical and biological industry was at a high historical percentile [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.73 years, at the 13.6% historical percentile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.01 years, at the 81.1% historical percentile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.31 years, at the 45.3% historical percentile, lower than the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 54.5%, 4%, 14%, and 79.9% historical percentiles respectively, and their durations all shortened compared to the previous week [3][26].

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio returns have generally declined this week, with the interest rate style portfolio showing controlled drawdowns in certain strategies, while some credit style strategies still achieved positive returns [3][16][20] - The average yield of the credit style portfolio has decreased by 6.8 basis points to -0.04%, with the short-end strategies experiencing the smallest drawdown [3][20] - The long-end strategies in the credit style portfolio have seen a significant drop in average returns, with a decrease of 12.5 basis points to -0.17% [3][20] Group 2 - The sources of returns for the portfolio are primarily from coupon recovery, with significant attention on the configuration and trading space at the beginning of the year [4][28] - The annualized coupon space for certain strategies is notably larger compared to the lows of 2025, with expectations for continued recovery in the mid to long-end strategies [4][28] - The annualized coupon yield for perpetual bonds and the city investment hybrid strategies is around 2.18%-2.19%, indicating potential configuration value [4][28] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, the excess returns of the city investment hybrid strategy have shown volatility, with some strategies achieving positive excess returns while others remain in negative territory [5][34] - The short-end strategies have underperformed against benchmarks, while mid to long-end strategies have shown signs of recovery, particularly the secondary bond bullet and perpetual bond strategies [5][37] - The overall excess returns in the long-end strategies have varied significantly among different bond types, with some strategies showing recovery while others remain underperforming [5][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, particularly highlighting the acquisition of Manus by Meta as a significant trend [2]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4]. - E-commerce is facing pressure due to the domestic consumption environment, but the continuation of national subsidies in 2026 is expected to benefit the sector [4]. - The music streaming platform is identified as a high-quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued investment interest [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new franchise policies from major players like JD and Tuhu, indicating growth potential in the aftermarket [4]. - The Robotaxi segment is gaining traction with Tesla's recruitment for its autonomous ride-hailing project, presenting investment opportunities [4]. - The AI and cloud sectors are expected to thrive, with a focus on companies with strong operational cash flow, such as Google, Microsoft, Tencent, and Alibaba [4]. - The media sector anticipates a strong year in 2026 with several major game releases, particularly during the upcoming holiday season [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index increased by 2.15%, outperforming the Hang Seng index [9]. - Notable stock performances include Tims (+15.07%) and Luckin Coffee (+3.30%), while some brands like Tea Baidao saw declines [9][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index rose by 6.14%, significantly outperforming other indices [20]. - Key stock performances include iQIYI (+6.28%) and Tencent Music (+1.36%) [20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market cap reached $309.02 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 3.0% and 6.7% respectively [27]. - Notable stock performances include Tiger Brokers (+15.10%) and Futu Holdings (+8.03%) [29]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index saw a slight increase of 0.44%, with mixed performances among automotive service stocks [32]. - Companies like Meidong Auto (+7.76%) performed well, while others like AutoZone saw declines [32]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by 0.46%, with mixed stock performances [36]. - Notable performances include Beike (+2.04%) and Didi Global (+0.91%) [36]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index fell by 1.52%, with significant stock movements among major tech companies [42]. - Baidu saw a notable increase of 20.43%, while companies like Tesla experienced declines [42]. 1.3 Media - The media index increased by 2.1255%, with advertising and marketing sectors performing well [45]. - Key stock performances include NetEase (+7.32%) and Tencent (+3.32%) [45].

投资逻辑 电网设备框架——迈入总量稳增、结构分化的 2 万亿新阶段，行业驱动力发生质变，出海与主网为核心确定性。 25 年估算国内电网设备企业对应市场总规模超 2 万亿元，yoy+15%，行业驱动力正发生质变——①网内：约 8230 亿 元，yoy+9%（国南网稳增）②网外：约 5800 亿元，yoy+19%（储能爆发）3）出海：约 6650 亿元，yoy+20%。 投资建议 电力设备板块——以 AI 为核心抓手，重点聚焦变压器环节在技术革新与需求放量下的双重变革。 主线一：电力变压器（全球供需错配之下的硬通货）——数据中心供电架构正从终端负荷，转向需要专属 230-500kV 变电站支撑的枢纽级负荷。变电站作为发电、电网、算力三方需求的"公约数"，其建设具备极高的底层通用性。北美 电力变压器进口依赖度高达 80%，受原材料及人工短缺限制，产能扩张计划普遍推迟至 27-28 年释放。目前北美电力 变压器交期拉长至 100 周以上，成为决定 AIDC 投产进度的核心瓶颈。预计 2025 年美国电力变压器面临 30%的供应缺 口，供需错配将延续至 2030 年，具备渠道优势与快速交付能力的出口龙头将持续兑现高溢价 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on three main investment lines: undervalued brokerages, companies in the biotechnology sector, and diversified financial firms with strong performance growth [2][4]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced a plan to enhance the digital RMB management system, expected to optimize monetary policy transmission and support the internationalization of the RMB, creating opportunities in the payment sector [1][40]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on public fund sales fees, encouraging long-term holding by investors and benefiting the public fund industry [1][41][42]. - The insurance sector is expected to see stable net profits and net assets due to high tax-exempt income and deferred tax liabilities, with a low taxable income forecast for 2024-2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The digital RMB is set to officially launch on January 1, 2026, with expectations to enhance monetary policy efficiency and broaden application scenarios, benefiting related industries [1]. - The new fund sales fee regulations are aimed at reducing costs for investors and promoting a healthier ecosystem for public funds [1][41][42]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued brokerages for potential gains, particularly recommending Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [2]. - Highlighting Sichuan Shuangma's advantages in the technology sector and its investments in gene therapy, with a strong pipeline of projects [2]. - Recommend diversified financial firms like Yixin Group and Far East Horizon for their impressive performance growth [2]. Insurance Sector - The tax base switch is not expected to significantly impact insurance companies' net profits or net assets, with a high proportion of tax-exempt income [3]. - The report anticipates a favorable environment for insurance stocks driven by high demand in the liability sector and a supportive market for asset management [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a recent decline in the A-share market, with the non-bank financial sector underperforming compared to the broader market [10]. - The brokerage and insurance sectors have shown varied performance, with specific recommendations for companies based on their growth potential and market positioning [10][12].

超长债偏弱运行的三重压力 岁末阶段，收益率曲线整体沿陡峭化路径运行，与我们此前提示一致。在长端整体承压的背景下，超长期限调整幅度 更为突出。这反映出超长端的三重压力正在被广泛预期和集中定价： 供给压力不小，而流动性红利近尾声。从发行、存量与成交期限三个维度进行国际比较可见，当前国内政府债融资和 存量期限结构与美国较为相似。而若与德日对比，尤其是在低利率环境与跨周期资金需求的双重推动下，仍不排除有 进一步向长期限结构演变的空间。然而，与融资期限的长期化相比，超长债流动性的提升可能已接近瓶颈。国内超长 债交易活跃度已显著高于海外成熟市场，进一步扩张空间受限。这些潜在变化方向，对超长债利差构成向上压力。 对融资成本的政策导向从"推动下降"转向"低位运行"，从比价角度制约超长端利率下行空间。央行措辞变化反映 出，社会融资成本或已处于政策合意的低位水平。而过去五年间，30 年期国债利率累计下行约 146BP，与企业贷款利 率 147BP 的降幅基本持平。比价维度看，超长端利率脱离比价关系而下行的动力显著降低。 需求格局存在挑战。当前市场对久期边际偏好减弱、负债端对波动容忍度下降，机构对超长债的承接力弱化。对 30- 1 ...