Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries both fell, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][13][19]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity has continued to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 90th percentile. Specifically, sectors such as military, light industry, chemicals, media, and textiles are all above this threshold [2][25]. - The volatility of major indices has also increased, with the communication sector's volatility remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 60th historical percentile [2][35]. Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, computer, machinery, and electric new energy sectors have seen high research activity, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, agriculture, military, and automotive have also experienced rising research interest [3][41]. Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecast for the entire A-share market in 2026 has been downgraded. However, the profit forecasts for sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, transportation, consumer services, and textiles have been upgraded. The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices have also been raised, while those for the ChiNext and CSI 500 indices have been lowered [3][4][4.1][4.2][4.3][4.4]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has continued to rise, with significant net purchases of A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like home appliances, media, and non-bank financials has increased, while it has decreased in communication, electronics, and banking [4][5][5.1][5.2]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has reached its highest point since November 2025, with a net purchase of 857.75 billion yuan last week. Key sectors for net purchases include electronics, military, and non-ferrous metals, while net sales were seen in food and beverage, consumer services, and utilities [6][6.1][6.2][6.3]. Active Equity Funds and ETFs - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, while ETFs have seen renewed net subscriptions, primarily driven by institutional ETFs. The main net purchases in ETFs were in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and chemicals, while electronics, electric new energy, and banking saw net sales [8][8.1][8.4][8.5].

事件简评 截至 2026 年 1 月 11 日（北京时间），心动公司自研自发的生活模 拟游戏《心动小镇》（《Heartopia》）国际版在全球超过 100 个国 家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 200 名。 经营分析 《心动小镇》国际版初期下载量数据亮眼。截至 1 月 11 日，《心 动小镇》仍在日本、韩国、法国、泰国等 10 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜第 1，在德国、美国、加拿大等 30 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 20 名，总计在 108 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 200 名。根据 AppGrowing，《心动小镇》国际版在 Google Play 累计下载量超 160 万次，在 Apple Store 下载量约 100 万次，叠加尚无统计的 PC 端下载，我们预计《心动小镇》国 际版下载量已超 300 万次。作为一款大 DAU 且注重社交互动的网 络游戏，《心动小镇》的用户基数对全生命周期的商业化表现至关 重要，公测初期亮眼的下载数据保证了产品长线运营的坚实基础。 游戏内容在社交媒体平台传播有望进一步扩大用户基数。观 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating, recommending continued active investment in the insurance sector due to expected double-digit growth in new premiums driven by the bancassurance channel [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve double-digit growth in new premiums by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, which benefits from the migration of deposits and the competitive advantages of large insurance companies [1][26]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a significant increase in market share, with the "old seven" insurance companies' new premium market share rising from 8.2% in 2019 to 23.8% in 2023, and expected to reach 26.0% in 2024 [2][22]. - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a substantial portion of household deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations that many will not be renewed, leading to a shift towards insurance products [3][35]. - The demographic of clients with maturing deposits is predominantly older, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products a preferred option for reallocating funds [4][40]. - The report highlights that the bancassurance channel's growth will significantly enhance the overall profitability of large insurance companies by spreading fixed costs over a larger premium base [1][26]. Summary by Sections Bancassurance Channel - The bancassurance channel is identified as the main driver of value growth in the insurance industry for 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023 [12]. - The report notes that the shift in focus from individual insurance channels to bancassurance began in 2020, driven by the need to compensate for declining individual premium growth [2][12]. Bank Wealth Manager Survey Analysis - The survey indicates that a significant portion of maturing deposits will not be renewed, with expectations that 50% of clients will have deposits maturing in the 10%-30% and 30%-50% ranges [3][35]. - Wealth managers believe that the most acceptable financial products for clients will be bank wealth management and insurance, with insurance ranking second [4][40]. Projections for 2026 - The report estimates that the new premium growth rate for the bancassurance channel will exceed 25% in 2026, with expected incremental funds of 3,057 billion in January, 5,094 billion in Q1, and 11,150 billion for the entire year [5][62]. - The anticipated growth is attributed to the large volume of maturing deposits and the expected shift towards insurance products due to lower renewal rates for traditional bank deposits [60].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the automotive industry is positive, with expectations for steady demand growth driven by the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2026 [1][12][14] - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the subsidy policy has shifted from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, which is expected to benefit high-end vehicles while putting pressure on low-priced cars [1][14] - The report anticipates a marginal recovery in sales growth in Q1 2026, with an upward revision of the annual domestic sales growth forecast to -2% [1][14][16] Group 2 - The report highlights opportunities in themes such as smart technology and overseas expansion, with passenger car exports maintaining a growth rate of over 20% year-on-year [2][17] - Key companies to watch include BYD, Geely, and Li Auto in the automotive sector, and Horizon Robotics and Top Group in the smart technology and robotics sectors [2][22] - The report notes that the export volume of passenger cars is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2026, driven by recovering demand in markets like Russia and the increasing penetration of fuel and new energy vehicles [2][17] Group 3 - The automotive market saw a wholesale sales volume of 1.457 million units in the last week of December 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5%, while new energy vehicles accounted for 772,000 units, up 22% year-on-year [4][31] - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales volume was 2.759 million units, down 10% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles at 1.554 million units, showing a 3% increase [4][31] - The retail sales data for December 2025 indicated a total of 2.296 million units sold, down 13% year-on-year, while new energy vehicles saw a 7% increase in retail sales [4][31][46]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the credit style simulated portfolio has mostly rebounded, while the interest rate style portfolio continues to decline, with specific strategies showing varying performance [3][15][18] - The weekly return of the credit style portfolio has seen a slight increase in certain strategies, such as the broker debt and secondary debt duration strategies, achieving returns of 0.05% and 0.04% respectively [3][15] - The report highlights that the secondary capital bond heavy strategy has stabilized, with an average weekly return of 0.01%, outperforming the corresponding interest rate style portfolio by approximately 19 basis points [3][18] Group 2 - In terms of return sources, the long-duration portfolio's coupon rates have generally rebounded, indicating the emergence of left-side opportunities, with annualized returns for urban investment and industrial long-duration strategies reaching 2.45% and 2.48% respectively [4][29] - The report notes that the secondary debt duration strategy has shown superior cumulative excess returns over the past four weeks, with returns of 8.1 basis points, outperforming other strategies [5][34] - The short-end configuration value has also increased, with the urban investment short-end sinking strategy recovering nearly 13 basis points from its lowest point in 2025 [4][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it implies a focus on investment opportunities in the context of capital operations and asset restructuring [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that capital operations and market value management are progressing simultaneously within the sector, with a focus on asset integration and mergers and acquisitions. Recent developments include acquisitions by major state-owned enterprises, which are expected to revitalize existing assets and facilitate value reassessment for listed companies [2]. - The thermal power sector is currently under pressure due to long-term electricity price agreements and rising coal prices. The report outlines a three-phase strategy for the sector, focusing on electricity price agreements, coal price trends, and the impact of market transactions on Q1 performance and market value management [3]. - The report emphasizes the deepening of electricity system reforms, suggesting that the construction of a unified electricity market may exceed market expectations. It identifies three main lines of focus: steady progress in wind and solar installations, the increasing demand for flexible thermal power, and the organic transmission of generation costs to end-users [4]. Summary by Sections Capital Operations and Mergers - Recent advancements in capital operations by listed companies in the sector, including acquisitions and asset restructuring, are highlighted. The report suggests that these activities will enhance asset utilization and lead to value reassessment for companies involved [2]. Thermal Power Sector - The thermal power sector is experiencing adjustments due to long-term electricity price agreements and coal price increases. The report outlines a three-phase strategy focusing on price agreements, coal price evaluations, and the effects of market transactions on performance and shareholder returns [3]. Electricity System Reforms - The report discusses the ongoing deepening of electricity system reforms, with expectations for a unified electricity market to develop rapidly. It identifies key areas of focus, including the steady advancement of wind and solar installations, the demand for flexible thermal power, and the exploration of environmental values associated with green electricity [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from coal-to-gas initiatives and commercial aerospace, such as Jiufeng Energy and Guiguan Electric Power. It also recommends focusing on companies in the thermal power sector that are driven by market value management and business model transformations [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the durable consumer goods industry [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a long-term consumer bull market driven by new consumption trends, with four main themes expected to lead the way: AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy [1][8] - Historical cycles indicate that the A-share market exhibits 3-4 year cyclical fluctuations, with technology, cyclical consumption, and manufacturing rotating sequentially [1] - The report draws parallels between the upcoming "anti-involution" reforms starting in July 2025 and the "supply-side" reforms initiated in October 2015, suggesting similar transmission paths despite differing contexts [1] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Outlook for 2026 - The report highlights that the consumer bull market led by new consumption will differ from the 2016-2019 period, focusing on AI+ consumption, overseas expansion, emotional value, and silver economy as key growth areas [8] - AI+ consumption is expected to be a major opportunity throughout 2026, with significant advancements in technology and consumer engagement [12] - The overseas expansion of brands is seen as a critical growth driver, particularly as urbanization rates plateau and the focus shifts to international markets [23] - Emotional value consumption is projected to grow significantly, driven by changing demographics and economic conditions, with sectors like pet care and collectibles gaining traction [28] - The silver economy is anticipated to reach a market size of 71 trillion yuan by 2023, with substantial growth expected as the aging population increases [40] 2. Sector Performance Tracking - The report tracks various sectors, indicating a mixed outlook: - Trend toys are showing upward momentum, with companies like Pop Mart leading the market [43] - The new tobacco sector is expected to benefit from regulatory tightening, favoring compliant manufacturers [45] - The home goods sector is experiencing pressure from weak real estate transactions, but there are signs of stabilization [47] - The paper and packaging sector is seeing price fluctuations, with expectations of recovery as supply tightens [49] - The pet food market is evolving, with a shift towards premium products and increased focus on health and wellness [31] 3. Key Data and Trends - The report provides insights into key data trends, such as the significant growth in the 3D printing market, which is projected to reach $24.61 billion by 2024 [17] - The export of 3D printers from China has seen substantial increases, with a year-on-year growth of 136.2% in export value [25] - The emotional value market is expected to continue expanding, with pet care and collectibles being highlighted as key areas of growth [28]

Group 1: Market Liquidity and A-Share Performance - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct catalyst for the recent rise in A-shares, with margin trading balances increasing by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume across the A-share market [3][13][22] - Historical data shows that similar situations, where the A-share market rose by nearly 10% over 16 trading days with trading volume expanding by over 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, predominantly at the beginning of the year [3][18][22] - The recent surge in the commercial aerospace index has led to a significant increase in turnover rates and trading volume proportions, indicating a potential structural overheating in the market [3][22] Group 2: AI Impact on Employment and Economic Policy - The U.S. job market continues to face pressure, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs for October and November [4][26][33] - The adoption of AI by large U.S. companies has significantly suppressed employment growth, particularly in the information, finance, and professional services sectors, which have collectively lost 344,000 jobs over the past three years [4][26][33] - The Federal Reserve's extended rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit commodity markets, as inflation concerns related to AI investments are easing [4][40][41] Group 3: Domestic Economic Recovery and Policy Optimization - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial enterprises in December showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a shift from price drag to price support for corporate revenues [5][56] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also risen, with the core CPI maintaining its highest level in five years, reflecting a smoother transmission of prices from enterprises to consumers [5][56] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to enhance corporate profitability, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition [5][62] Group 4: Rebalancing and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for A-shares, driven by improved liquidity and favorable domestic and international economic conditions [6][63] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors benefiting from the recovery of domestic manufacturing and consumer spending [6][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in sectors such as aviation, duty-free, and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer income and tourism recovery [6][63]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The logistics sector is seeing price increases due to a reduction in low-cost deliveries, benefiting leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express [2] - The shipping market is experiencing a stable demand with a potential increase in oil transportation due to Venezuelan oil exports, which may positively impact the oil shipping market [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply optimization and rising ticket prices, with recommendations for China Southern Airlines and Air China [3] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index remained flat during the week of January 3-9, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.8%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [1][12] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The shipping market is stabilizing with a good supply-demand relationship, and oil shipping is expected to rise due to the potential for Venezuelan oil to shift from black market to compliant market [20] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1194.89 points, up 4.2% week-on-week but down 22.8% year-on-year [21] - The domestic trade container freight index (PDCI) was 1337 points, down 0.4% week-on-week and down 1.0% year-on-year [28] Aviation and Airports - In November 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with domestic routes up 5% and international routes up 19% [59] - The average daily flights in the week of January 3-9, 2026, were 14,725, a slight increase of 0.28% year-on-year [3] Rail and Road - In November 2025, national railway passenger volume was 331 million, up 8.94% year-on-year, while freight volume was 46 million tons, up 1.16% year-on-year [83] - The national highway freight volume was 3.876 billion tons, up 3.57% year-on-year, but the number of trucks on highways decreased by 14.86% week-on-week [89]

关注台积电法说会，26 年 AI 展望有望继续强劲增长。台积电将于 1 月 15 日召开法说会，除了对 26Q1 业绩做出 展望外，将对 2026 年需求景气展望与资本支出规划，我们预计在 AI 强需带动下，26Q1 有望淡季不淡，2026 年 AI 展望有望继续强劲增长，受益于英伟达 GPU 价量齐升及 ASIC 需求爆发，台积电将大力扩产 2nm、3nm 制程及 CoWoS 产能，2026 年资本开支也有望超预期。台积电 2025 年 12 月合并营收 3350 亿元新台币，月减 2.5%，年增 20.4%，创历年同期新高，25Q4 营收首度突破 1 万亿元新台币关卡，达到 10460.8 亿元新台币，季增 5.7%，年增 20.5%，创单季新高。台积电先进制程有望自 2026 年起至 2029 年连续四年涨价，看涨 3%至 10%不等，虽然台积 电报价上涨，但是客户仍踊跃预定先进制程产能。台积电 2nm 发展较快，流片量（tape-outs）已达到 3nm 技术 同期的 1.5 倍。存储芯片继续强劲涨价，根据 TrendForce 数据，26Q1 预估 1Q26 一般型 DRAM 合约价季增 55-60 ...