2025 年 06 月 30 日 国际关系动态报告 国际关系研究报告 证券研究报告 国金政策与战略组 分析师：杨佳妮（执业 S1130524040002） yangjiani@gjzq.com.cn 联系人：商景皓 shangjinghao@gjzq.com.cn 国金地缘政治周观察｜当前美国和各个国家贸易谈判进展 核心观点 地缘动向复盘：本周聚焦美国贸易谈判。美欧谈判方面，6 月 25 日北约峰会在荷兰海牙落幕，6 月 26 日欧盟在比 利时布鲁塞尔举行峰会，对美贸易谈判是峰会焦点之一。中美方面，6 月 27 日，中美贸易博弈迎来重大转折。卢特 尼克称美国已经与中国签署协议，中国商务部也表示双方进一步确认了框架细节。 国金观点周观察： （1）整体来看，美方对达成协议的急切程度高于其谈判对手，我们做出判断的原因主要基于三点：一是 7 月 9 日 谈判截止日即将到来，目前美国与主要国家的谈判仍无实质性进展。二是特朗普目前面临着经济与政治的压力，关 税问题若迟迟得不到解决，这将限制特朗普对其他问题的解决。三是 7 月 4 日为美国"独立日"，特朗普计划在此特 殊日期前后宣布一批政治成果，以达到政治宣传的效果。特朗 ...

qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq 股指期货市场概况 从整体表现来看，上周四大期指主力合约均上涨，中证 1000 期指涨幅最大，幅度为 5.49%，上证 50 期指涨幅最小， 幅度为 1.27%。上周四大期指主力合约贴水均收窄。IF、IC、IM 和 IH 期指均为贴水状态。 全部合约角度看，较上周而言，四大期指当月、下月、当季和下季合约的平均成交量升降不一，其中 IH 上升幅度最 大，为 7.98%，IC 下降幅度最大，为-4.93%。四大期指上周最后一个交易日的合计持仓量均上升，其中 IH 上升幅度 最大，为 30.34%，IM 上升幅度最小，为 9.50%。 基差水平方面，截至上周最后一个交易日收盘，IF、IC、IM 和 IH 当季合约的年化基差率分别为-4.84%、-8.50%、- 11.12%和-4.28%，较上周最后一个交易日，四大期指贴水幅度均有所收窄。 跨期价差方面，截至上周五收盘，IF、IC、IM和IH当月合约与下月合约的跨期价差率分别处在2019年以来的63.90%、 58.80%、76.50%和 64.00%分位数。四大期指当月合约与下月、当季、下季的价差率均处于历史分布常态位置。 正 ...

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+2.26%到 9879.00 美元/吨，沪铜+2.47%到 7.99 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数跌至-44.81 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一微增 0.05 万吨至 13.01 万吨，较上周四下降 1.58 万吨。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率环比下滑至 74.01%，环比下滑 1.81 个百分点，较 预期值低 2.22 个百分点，同比上升 4.99 个百分点；本周漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.23 个百分点至 81.6%， 周订单量环比微降 0.26%；本周国内黄铜棒生产企业开工率持续走低，较上周回落 0.38 个百分点至 50.8%。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+1.31%到 2595.00 美元/吨，沪铝+0.56%到 2.06 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 46.3 万吨，较本周一减少 0.1 万吨，环比上周四增加 1.4 万吨；国内主流消费地铝棒库存 14.25 万吨， 较周一减少 0.2 万吨，环比上周四增加 0.8 万吨；国内主流消费地再生铝合金锭社 ...

本期 10 年期国债换手率明显回落、30Y 国债换手率回升，因此 30/10Y 国债换手率快速上升 87 个百分点，除此外，TL/T 多空比也回升 10 个百分点。上市公司理财买入量、商品比价分位值不同程度回落。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量仍为 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率由偏冷区间 升至过热区间，全市场换手率、货币松紧预期均由中性区间升至过热区间，市场利差由偏冷区间升至过热区间，1/10Y 国债换手率则由过热区间降至中性区间。 分类别来看，①本期交易热度分位均值大幅回升 14 个百分点，其中 30/10Y 国债换手率分位值大幅回升 87 个百分点， TL/T 多空比分位值也上升 10 个百分点，不过 1/10Y 国债换手率回落 17 个百分点。②机构行为类中，基金久期、分歧 度分位值均回升 6 个百分点，上市公司理财买入量分位值回落 17 个百分点，带动机构行为分为均值小幅下降 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical sector, with a focus on price increase opportunities, particularly in products like Kwang and H-acid [1] Core Insights - The chemical market has shown improvement as external disturbances ease, with solid-state batteries gaining attention. Current valuations in the sector provide a safety cushion, with historical PB at 18% and PE at 69% since 2010 [1] - Key developments include the signing of a cooperation agreement for Kazakhstan's first coal-to-gas project, the successful trial production of liquid methionine by New and Cheng in partnership with Sinopec, and the U.S. Department of Commerce granting licenses for ethane loading to certain energy companies [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $68.36 per barrel, down $8.09 or -10.58% week-on-week, while WTI futures averaged $65.71 per barrel, down $8.53 or -11.48% [10] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index with a 3.11% increase, while the petrochemical sector underperformed with a -2.07% decline [10][11] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry shows mixed operating rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 65.6% and semi-steel tire rates at 78.1%. Domestic and international demand is recovering, with expectations for increased overseas market activity [29][30] - The dye market remains stable, with prices for disperse black ECT300% holding steady at 16.5 CNY/kg, while demand in the textile sector is weak [31] - The carbonate market is experiencing weak pricing, with prices for dimethyl carbonate at 3715 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton or -1.98% [31] Key Chemical Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price changes in various chemical products, with the price of titanium dioxide averaging 13943 CNY/ton, down 1.04% week-on-week [31] - The market for vitamin E is experiencing a downward trend, with prices expected to drop to around 65 CNY/kg [32][33] Industry Developments - New and Cheng's liquid methionine project is progressing well, with trial production yielding qualified products [3] - The ethylene market is under pressure, with prices expected to remain weak due to limited demand and cautious purchasing behavior [36][39] Agricultural Chemicals - The market for acetamiprid is tight, with prices around 140,000 CNY/ton, while demand for high-efficiency insecticides remains stable [40] - The market for sweeteners like sucralose is experiencing a demand slump, with prices holding steady at 190,000-200,000 CNY/ton [42]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the telecommunications and AI-related sectors, indicating a "Buy" rating for industries expected to outperform the market by over 15% in the next 3-6 months [56]. Core Insights - Telecommunications revenue showed slight recovery in May, with a total of 748.8 billion yuan for the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [1][4]. - Nvidia's market capitalization reached 3.77 trillion USD, becoming the world's largest company, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure [1][7]. - China Mobile announced a significant procurement project for G.654E optical fiber cables, with an estimated scale of 22,900 kilometers, indicating a tripling of demand compared to the previous procurement [1][10]. - The approval of two infrastructure REITs for data centers by the China Securities Regulatory Commission supports ongoing expansion in the data center sector [1][3]. Summary by Sections Telecommunications - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with a reported revenue of 748.8 billion yuan for the first five months of 2025, up 1.4% year-on-year [4][19]. - The number of fixed broadband users reached 682 million, with gigabit users accounting for 32.7% [19]. Servers - The server index increased by 5.71% this week, with Nvidia's stock price rising 4.3% to 154.31 USD, reflecting strong market confidence in AI infrastructure investments [2][7]. - The global demand for AI computing power remains robust, with recommendations to focus on companies like Industrial Fulian, which are part of Nvidia's supply chain [2][7]. Optical Modules - The optical module index rose by 7.05% this week, driven by increased demand for 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical modules [2][9]. - The procurement of low-loss G.654E optical fibers by China Mobile is expected to boost demand for data center interconnect (DCI) solutions [1][10]. Data Centers (IDC) - The IDC index increased by 6.73% this week, with expectations of a surge in AI application demand in the second half of 2025 [3][13]. - The approval of REITs for data center projects indicates a strong financial backing for infrastructure expansion [3][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development, such as servers and IDC, as well as those benefiting from international AI growth, including servers and optical modules [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI electronic cloth sector, particularly highlighting the potential of quartz cloth for AI servers due to its superior dielectric properties [2][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing application of quartz cloth in AI servers, which is expected to meet the rising demands for dielectric performance [2][14]. - It discusses the acquisition of Merck's global surface solutions business by Global New Materials International, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position and operational synergies [3][15]. - The report highlights the growing interest in the African market for construction materials, particularly focusing on the operational capabilities required for successful market entry [4][16]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report notes the strengthening application expectations for quartz cloth in AI servers, citing its lower dielectric constant and loss compared to traditional electronic cloth [2][14]. Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of various materials, including cement, glass, and aluminum, indicating a mixed outlook with some sectors facing downward pressure while others show resilience [5][17]. National Subsidy Tracking - It mentions the planned distribution of 138 billion yuan in central funds for old-for-new replacements, which could benefit companies in the building materials sector [6][18]. Important Developments - Key developments include the opening of new factories by Keda Manufacturing in Africa and the acquisition of Merck's business by Global New Materials International, which are expected to enhance operational capabilities and market reach [7][20][21]. Economic Sentiment - The report assesses the economic sentiment across various sectors, noting that while some areas like AI materials maintain high demand, traditional sectors like cement and glass are experiencing pressure [22][23]. Price Changes in Building Materials - It details the price fluctuations in building materials, with cement prices showing a slight decline and glass prices remaining stable despite regional variations [36][49]. Export Statistics - The report includes export statistics for fiberglass products, indicating a decline in both volume and value, which may reflect broader market challenges [71].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2661.46 点(周环比+0.80%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3921.76 点（周环比+1.95%），深证综指收于 2052.56 点（周环比+4.24%），上证综指收于 3424.23 点（周环比+1.91%），科 创板收于 988.21 点（周环比+3.17%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 牧业： 截至 6 月 28 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.52 元/公斤，环比-0.48%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 20 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.04 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-7.88%，奶价下 跌幅度持续放缓，散奶价在 2.3 元出场附近止稳。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望 企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 种植链： 近期小麦启动最低收购价预案，对小麦价格存在较强底部支撑，同时玉米端下游库存持续消化，玉米价格出现小幅反 弹。在外部环境不 ...

截至 6 月 27 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.18 年、3.39 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平，商业银行债中 ，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.21 年、3.54 年、2.07 年， 其中一般商金债处于较低历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分 别为 1.54 年、2.28 年、3.18 年、1.45 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，租赁公司债位于较高历 史分位。 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.18 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期超 8 年，福建区县级城投债成交 久期缩短至 1.24 年附近。同时，广东地级市、福建地级市、河北地级市、山西省级等区域城投债久期历史分位数已 逾 90%，湖南省级、河南地级市城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所拉长，总体处于 3.39 年附近，钢铁行业成交久期缩短至 1.66 年，食品 饮料行业成交久期拉长至 2.31 年。此外，房地产行业成交久期处于较低历史分位，公用事业、交通运输、商贸 ...

新消费主线崛起：（1）坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，关注情绪消费、功能价值、渠道变革、品牌出海四大长 线主题。（2）深挖老树新芽，关注具备新消费思维的传统赛道优质公司。（3）传统消费捕捉超跌反弹机遇，尤其是 竞争格局持续改善的红利+标的。 25H2 节奏：Q3 阶段性盘整把握结构性机会，Q4 龙头企业有望再创新高。（1）Q3 新消费龙头筹码结构有变化，处于 经济筑底与政策调整期，消费板块短期调整，把握景气兑现度较高的新消费龙头，积极寻找有增长潜力的二线标的。 （2）Q4 外部不确定性降低结合政策发力，新消费龙头有望估值切换，龙头+预期能持续兑现的新锐公司有望持续表现。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 轻工制造：①新型烟草（稳健向上）：整体来看，海外雾化电子烟合规市场扩容趋势明确，HNB 行业成长态 势清晰，英美烟草份额有望提升，继续重点布局切入其产业链的思摩尔国际。②家居（底部企稳）：内销方 面，终端销售情况整体仍相对偏弱；外销方面，7 月降息概率为 18.6%。建议重点关注底部反转型或具备自身α 企业。③造纸（底部企稳）：纸浆库存累计趋势不减，纸价继续保持企稳态势。④潮玩（高景气维持）：行业仍 处扩容趋势， ...