Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [26] Core Insights - The current space market is rapidly developing, with a focus on large low-orbit satellite constellations and space computing constellations. However, due to limited rocket resources, the actual number of satellites in orbit by December 2025 is expected to be lower than anticipated, with only 136 GW satellites and 108 Qianfan satellites [2][11] - Elon Musk announced plans to expand the Starlink V3 satellite scale and establish a space data center, aiming for an annual deployment of 100 GW of data centers within 4-5 years. This could require an astonishing scale of 500,000 to 800,000 satellites [2][12] - The report suggests that the actual capacity for low-orbit satellites may exceed expectations, with potential for up to 175,000 satellites if safety distances are reduced [3][14] - Two main investment strategies are proposed: focusing on leading companies in the space sector and selecting suppliers within the SpaceX supply chain, which is expected to benefit from significant orders as SpaceX prepares for an IPO with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion [4][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Expected Differences in Space Era - The market space is typically estimated based on launch plans, but actual satellite deployment may fall short due to resource constraints [11] - The anticipated number of satellites in orbit is significantly lower than planned, with only 136 GW satellites and 108 Qianfan satellites expected by December 2025 [11][12] Section 2: Low-Orbit Satellite Capacity - The market generally believes that low Earth orbit can accommodate 60,000 to 100,000 satellites, but actual capacity may be much higher, potentially reaching 175,000 satellites under certain conditions [3][14] Section 3: Investment Strategies in the Space Era - Investment Strategy 1: Focus on leading companies in the space sector, which have shown a significant increase in market capitalization from 1.3% to 6.0% since November 2025 [4][18] - Investment Strategy 2: Prioritize the SpaceX supply chain, which is expected to see substantial growth as SpaceX aims for a historic IPO and ambitious production goals [4][21] Section 4: Related Companies - Companies related to the SpaceX supply chain include Xinwei Communication, Yujing Co., Maiwei Co., and Lens Technology. Other sectors include space computing, rockets, satellites, and 3D printing [5][24]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 1.94% to $12,702.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.23% to 101,400 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 6.29% week-on-week, marking six consecutive weeks of accumulation, with total inventory up by 168,100 tons year-on-year [1][12] - The operating rate of the yellow copper rod industry decreased by 0.61% to 46.98%, while the enameled wire industry saw a decline of 0.66% in operating rate to 74.87% [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 2.22% to $3,088.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 6.13% to 24,300 yuan per ton [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.1%, indicating a mixed performance across different aluminum processing sectors [2][13] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 80.51% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.36% to $4,487.9 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 2 tons to 1,067.13 tons [3][14] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, have contributed to a strong and volatile market for gold [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 2.90%, with November exports of rare earth permanent magnets rising by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [4][36] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies and ongoing supply constraints are likely to support future demand and price increases in the rare earth sector [4][36] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 11.5% to 131,800 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 10.9% to 126,900 yuan per ton [4][60] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,500 tons, with a slight increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [4][60] Group 6: Cobalt - The price of cobalt in the Jiangxi market rose by 1.1% to 460,000 yuan per ton, with cobalt intermediate prices also showing slight increases [5][63] - The overall cobalt market remains strong, with supply tightness expected to continue, supporting price stability [5][63] Group 7: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 1.8% to $17,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 4.3% to 138,000 yuan per ton [5][64] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, leading to price increases [5][64]

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数继续回落至 40% 本期 TL/T 多空比、政策利差、基金-农商买入量分位值分别回落 54、42、27 个百分点，不动产比价、基金超长债买 入量、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值也不同程度下滑。除此外，配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别上升 41、 33 个百分点，全市场换手率、市场利差等指标分位值略有回升。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 20% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量降至 4 个（占比 20%）、位于中性区间的指标数量升至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量仍为 10 个（占比 50%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是， TL/T 多空比、政策利差均由过 热区间降至偏冷区间，基金超长债买入量由中性区间降至偏冷区间；配置盘力度则由中性区间升至过热区间，上市公 司理财买入量、全市场换手率由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 机构行为分位均值上升 TL/T 多空比降至偏冷区间 本期交易热度类指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量占比降至 33%、位于中性区间的指标数量占比升至 50%，位于偏冷 区间的指标数量占比仍为 17%。TL/T 多空比分位值分别下降 5 ...

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周，受节假日因素影响，聊天助手类应用活跃度普遍回落，其中 Kimi 降幅较为显著。行业动态方面，数据与 生态整合加速，微软收购 Osmos 优化 Fabric 平台数据流程，Snowflake 以 10 亿美元收购 Observe 布局 AI 可观 测性；谷歌 Gmail 全面集成 Gemini3 模型重塑邮件体验；阿里高德发布世界模型 FantasyWorld，登顶 WorldScore 榜单并落地低成本 3D 街景生成功能。 - 2025 年 11 月，中国智能手机销量达到约 2600 万台，同比上升约 10%。苹果、小米、华为、荣耀、OPPO 以约 23%、15%、14%、13%、12%的份额排名前五。具体型号方面，苹果 iPhone 17 Pro Max 销量排名第一，iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro 排名第二、第三。11 月国内 PC 市场销量有所回暖，台式机销量约为 152 万台，同比上升约 7%。笔电销量约为 195 万台，同比上升约 4%。 | 海外市场行情 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 37.7% for steel companies, suggesting a neutral to positive outlook for the sector [10][11]. Core Insights - The iron ore prices have increased due to expectations of spring replenishment by port traders, while the reduction of 19 million tons of capacity in Yulin has led to expectations of a reversal in coking coal prices [10][11]. - The domestic hot-rolled coil prices are showing a weak trend, with an average price of 3,306 RMB/ton, up by 16 RMB/ton from December 31 [11]. - The steel industry is experiencing a price increase across the black industrial chain due to raw material inflation, although the steel segment is currently facing a loss of 38.6 RMB per ton [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The report highlights a 3.3% increase in the CITIC Steel Index, which underperformed the market by 0.5% [10]. - The steel industry is at a fundamental bottom, with expectations of price stability in the near term [10]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals Overview Steel - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a slight increase in social inventory to 3.9524 million tons, up by 50,400 tons week-on-week [11]. - The demand for steel is supported by macroeconomic expectations, but actual high-level transactions remain low, leading to a forecast of narrow price adjustments in the coming week [11]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have slightly increased from a recent bottom, with some coal types experiencing price adjustments due to improved auction results [12]. - The supply side remains loose as previously reduced coal mines have resumed production, while demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for steel [12]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have risen, with the average price for 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port reaching 826 RMB/ton, an increase of 24 RMB/ton (+3%) from the previous week [13]. - The report anticipates that the replenishment by steel mills will remain restrained due to weak demand in real estate and infrastructure investments [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in pig farming and poultry [62]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.98% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite [12][14]. - In the pig farming sector, prices are currently stabilizing at a low level, with expectations of further declines due to weak supply and demand dynamics [21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices, particularly for white feather chickens, while yellow feather chickens are showing signs of recovery due to improved demand [32]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy prices are stabilizing after a period of decline [40]. - The planting sector is facing tight supply and demand conditions, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans anticipated due to external uncertainties and domestic policy support [43][44]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with certain seafood prices trending upwards [51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 9, the national average price for commodity pigs is 12.63 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.36%. The average weight of pigs at market is 128.54 kg, showing a slight decrease [20][21]. - The sector is expected to face further price declines due to weak demand and supply conditions, with a focus on reducing production capacity amid ongoing losses [21][22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.64 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04%. The profitability of poultry farming is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement for yellow feather chickens due to better demand [30][32]. Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong is 26.58 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but up 14.62% year-on-year. The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season [40]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, while the industry is still facing significant financial pressure [40]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2250 yuan/ton, with expectations of tight supply conditions leading to potential price increases. The soybean market is also showing upward trends [43][44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at a low point, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in crop yields [44]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are also stable, with notable increases in certain seafood products [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric new sector, particularly highlighting "space photovoltaic" as the strongest main line for 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining market recognition due to its significant value, inflation trends, and high barriers to entry, with expectations for continued market expansion [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage and lithium battery price increases, as well as the growth potential in wind power and green hydrogen under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3][12]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to create a "rush" for shipments, which may help mitigate the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations in Q1 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The space photovoltaic sector is recognized as a core branch of commercial aerospace, with its advantages becoming increasingly acknowledged by the market [2][6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is set for April 1, 2026, which is anticipated to lead to a surge in shipments to counteract seasonal demand dips [9][10]. - The report suggests actively participating in the space photovoltaic market, as the trend is expected to continue [2][6]. Wind Power - The report forecasts continued growth in domestic wind power installations in 2026, with an expected increase in offshore and onshore installations [12][13]. - The global wind power demand is projected to maintain a long-term positive outlook, driven by AI and electrification trends [13][14]. - Key recommendations include focusing on manufacturers with improved profitability and those benefiting from domestic and international market expansions [12][32]. Lithium Batteries - The report notes a reduction in the export tax rebate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation set for January 1, 2027 [16][17]. - Price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) have seen significant increases, with most customers accepting a processing fee hike of 1,000 yuan per ton [16][20]. - The lithium battery sector is expected to experience continued demand growth, particularly in the context of rising prices and expanding production capacities [18][33]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Bloom Energy has secured a $2.65 billion order, indicating strong demand for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and validating their commercial viability [29][30]. - The report highlights the potential for green hydrogen and related technologies to experience significant growth, driven by policy support and increasing demand [30][31]. - Key investment opportunities include companies involved in green methanol production and hydrogen fuel cell components [30][32]. Grid & Industrial Control - Significant investments in grid infrastructure are planned, with Southern Power Grid expecting over 20% growth in Q1 2026 [23][24]. - The report identifies opportunities in the industrial control sector, particularly for companies involved in robotics and automation technologies [28][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand in the automation market [28][32].

核心观点： 机器人：景气度加速向上，马斯克宣布第三代机器人设计定型，发布在即。 全球首款全身力控小尺寸人形机器人"上纬启元 Q1"正式亮相。上纬新材发布全球首款全身力控小尺寸人形机器人 "上纬启元 Q1"，采用轻量化路线，通过工程化压缩体型与重量，实现"可打包携带"的产品形态。公司公告显示， 该业务专注于个人与家庭场景，未面向工商业领域，目前仍处于产品开发阶段；对于极客和创作者群体，Q1 因体型小、 结构开放，可适配智元灵创平台及开发接口，成为可反复调试改造的载体。 腾讯 Robotics X 实验室与宇树科技达成战略协作。前者通过 Tairos（钛螺丝）具身智能大模型，为宇树机器人本体 提供人机交互友好的导游导览导购服务支持，共同打造行业应用标杆。Robotics X 实验室以 SDK 和云服务形式输出 规划大模型与多模态感知模型，由宇树科技及生态企业完成系统集成与多场景落地交付。 征和工业发布链式灵巧手"臻手・CHOHO Hand"。征和工业在 "具身智能灵巧手发展开年论坛暨全球首创链式灵巧 手发布会"上，发布链式灵巧手"臻手・CHOHO Hand"，现场展示其单手 40kg 的承重能力。该产品兼具高承重 ...

投资逻辑 本周加密市场持续回暖，尤其是交易额回暖明显。美国 12 月非农就业数据及失业率均低于预期，呈现出招聘和解聘 双放缓的态势，受此影响，交易员加大对美联储暂停降息的押注。此外，特朗普宣布启动一项规模达 2,000 亿美元的 MBS 购买计划，以降低房贷利率。本周加密货币总市值为 3.1 万亿美元，环比上周增长 3.7%；比特币收盘价为 90,513 美元/枚，环比上周增长 0.6%；以太坊收盘价为 3,083 美元/枚，环比上周下滑 1.3%。目前加密货币恐惧贪婪指数为 40，周内情绪在中性区间内先上升后下滑。根据 Glassnode，当前 BTC 持仓均价约为 56,178 美元/枚，持仓均价略 有反弹。期权指示未来一个月保持平稳：根据 CoinGlass，期权市场看涨未来一周、看跌未来一个月、认为 26 年 Q1、 Q3 保持平稳、看多 26 年 Q2 行情、并看跌 26 年 Q4。全球加密交投情绪明显回暖，全球加密货币本成交额环比上周 增长 52.9%，结束了连续 6 周的下滑；Coinbase 本周现货成交额环比增长 62.8%。 全球政策与产业新闻方面：1 月 15 日美国参议院将审议 CLA ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous with brands actively opening new stores, although there is a caution regarding short-term data volatility due to the seasonal downturn [3] - The tea beverage sector is under slight pressure as it enters the off-season, with a trend of subsidy reductions expected despite the government's investigation into delivery platforms [3] - The e-commerce sector continues to face challenges, showing lackluster performance due to the domestic consumption environment [3] - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on music subscription platforms [3] - The virtual asset and trading platform market is experiencing limited catalysts, with cryptocurrency prices remaining volatile [3] - The automotive service sector is seeing expansion, with new 4S stores being opened by Zhongsheng Group in various cities [3] - The internet healthcare sector is gaining attention with OpenAI's launch of "ChatGPT Health," suggesting a focus on this area [3] - The AI and cloud sectors are viewed positively, with recommendations to monitor leading tech companies with strong cash flows [3] - The media sector is showing signs of recovery, with new games performing well and user growth in the gaming segment [3] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index decreased by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 0.57 percentage points [8] - Notable stock performances include: Gu Ming (+8.72%), Ba Wang Tea (+6.99%), and Luckin Coffee (-6.47%) [8][10] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index increased by 3.22%, outperforming both the Hang Seng index and the technology index [15] - Key stock performances include: iQIYI (+0.99%) and Tencent Music (-2.86%) [15] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - As of January 9, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $319.54 billion, up 3.40% [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were $90,505 and $3,083.14, reflecting changes of +0.6% and -1.2% respectively [22] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 0.38%, with notable stock performances including Advance Auto Parts (+12.73%) [31] 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by 0.27%, with key stock performances such as JD Health (+13.31%) and Didi Global (-7.19%) [37] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index increased by 1.59%, with Amazon (+9.22%) and Google (+4.26%) showing strong performances [39] 1.3 Media - The Shenwan一级传媒 index increased by 13.14%, with the advertising and marketing sector showing the largest gains [46] - Key stock performances include: Xindong Company (+18.50%) and Tencent Holdings (-1.93%) [46]