Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with strong growth certainty in the first half of the year, particularly AI-PCB, computing hardware, semiconductor self-sufficiency, the Apple supply chain, and AI-driven industries [4][34]. Core Insights - The upcoming release of Grok 4 is anticipated to exceed expectations for Q2 performance, with significant advancements expected in code generation and understanding [1]. - The rapid development of ASIC chips by companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta is expected to drive strong demand for AI-PCB, with a projected increase in the number of ASIC chips exceeding 7 million by 2026 [1]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust upward trend, with specific segments such as storage chips and AI-PCB showing promising growth [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of AI-PCB companies, with many experiencing full production and sales, leading to high growth expectations for Q2 and Q3 [1][4]. - The semiconductor materials and components sectors are also expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI-related products [4][22]. 2. Key Segments 2.1 Consumer Electronics - Xiaomi has launched its first AI glasses, with various pricing tiers, indicating a growing market for AI-integrated consumer products [5][6]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by demand from home appliances, automotive, and consumer electronics, with expectations for substantial growth in Q2 [8]. 2.3 Components - The demand for components such as MLCCs and inductors is expected to rise due to upgrades in AI devices, with a notable increase in usage and pricing [20]. 2.4 IC Design - The storage segment is projected to see price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [22][25]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic production and self-sufficiency due to geopolitical factors [26][30]. 3. Company Focus - Companies such as 生益科技, 胜宏科技, and others are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the AI-PCB and computing hardware demand [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers like 北方华创 and 中微公司 in the context of increasing self-sufficiency [37][40].

Group 1: Core Views - The report highlights a new cycle in the market, indicating that China and the US are in mirrored economic cycles, with China lacking capital returns while the US sacrifices government credit [3][9][10] - The expectation is that high interest rates will have limited impact on private and household sectors overseas, and that a global shift from virtual to real manufacturing will begin, benefiting China's economy through increased physical consumption [3][10] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Short-term investment opportunities in China are constrained by risks associated with dollar repatriation and weakening volume and price dynamics, but preparations for a shift towards real economy investments in the second half of the year are advised [4][11] - The focus for Chinese investors should be on increasing volume across various sectors, with particular attention to physical assets like oil and copper as manufacturing activities resume [4][11] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - **Wind Power Equipment**: Daikin Heavy Industry is recommended due to the upward trend in European offshore wind market, with expectations for continued performance and order fulfillment [14] - **Engineering Machinery**: Hengli Hydraulic is favored as domestic excavator industry recovers, with potential growth in humanoid robot components [15] - **Defense Electronics**: Aerospace Electric is positioned as a leader in military connectors, benefiting from high demand in defense sectors [16] - **Commercial Vehicles**: China National Heavy Duty Truck is expected to benefit from recovering demand in heavy truck sector and improving profitability [17] - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Yangnong Chemical is at a cyclical turning point with potential for growth supported by capital expenditures [18] - **Non-Bank Financials**: China Taiping is recommended due to its low valuation and potential for profit growth driven by insurance transformation [19] - **Food and Beverage**: Yanjinpuzi is highlighted for its strong growth in konjac products and multi-channel expansion [20] - **Retail**: Meituan is expected to maintain its leading position in food delivery, with growth potential in instant retail and international expansion [21] - **Light Manufacturing**: Smoore International is positioned to benefit from the expanding legal vaping market in Europe and the US [23] - **Telecommunications**: China Unicom is recommended due to its leading investment in AI computing and growth in IDC and cloud services [25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential recovery in the market with a recommendation to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +3.1%, ranking 17th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +3.9%, ranking 4th [3][19]. - The land market's premium rate has rebounded, with an average premium rate of 9% for the week ending June 27, 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease in land transaction volume [3][30]. - New housing sales in 47 cities totaled 523 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +39% but a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - Guangzhou is promoting prefabricated buildings, mandating that 100% of residential land sold from 2026 onwards will implement this construction method, which may transform the real estate and construction industries [6][17]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions across various city tiers [4][43]. - The premium rates for land transactions have shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3][30]. Land Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 923 million square meters of residential land were transacted across 300 cities, with a year-on-year decrease of -33% [30]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount are Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 414 billion, 395 billion, 386 billion, 329 billion, and 313 billion respectively [30][31]. New Housing Sales - New housing sales in 47 cities reached 523 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of +39% and a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - The performance varied by city tier, with first-tier cities showing a week-on-week increase of +81% [4][35]. Second-Hand Housing Sales - Second-hand housing transactions totaled 264 million square meters in 22 cities, with a week-on-week increase of +1% and a year-on-year decrease of -2% [43][44]. - First-tier cities experienced a week-on-week increase of +2%, while second-tier cities saw a +1% increase [43][44]. Policy and Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in supporting the real estate market, particularly in Shanghai, where the release of quality land parcels is seen as a positive signal for market recovery [5][13]. - The promotion of prefabricated buildings in Guangzhou is expected to enhance construction efficiency and sustainability, potentially benefiting developers who adopt these practices [6][17].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative model companies such as iFLYTEK, AI hardware companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology, and AI-related applications that can enhance user engagement and monetization, recommending companies like Kingsoft Office and Wanjing Technology [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of Kimi-Researcher, an autonomous intelligent agent, which achieved a Pass@1 score of 26.9% and a Pass@4 accuracy of 40.17% in tests, indicating advancements in AI capabilities [11] - Tesla's launch of Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, is noted, with plans for expansion despite public safety concerns regarding the technology [11] - The current investment landscape is characterized by a preference for thematic investments driven by risk appetite, with potential for long-term adoption of new technologies [11] - The report anticipates improved performance in the second half of the year due to base effects, new technology/product launches, and policy support [11] Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The report identifies high-growth sectors for 2025, including AI computing power and lidar technology, with accelerating growth in AI applications and stable growth in software outsourcing and financial IT [10][12] - It notes that the AI computing sector is experiencing high demand, with domestic players gaining market share [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic conditions and company performance trends in influencing market valuations [11] Market Performance - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the computer industry index rose by 7.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.75 percentage points, indicating strong market performance [14] - The report also highlights the top-performing companies in the computer sector during this period [18] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the launch of new Nvidia chips and the International Drone Application and Control Conference, which may present investment opportunities [25][26]

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 海内外 AI 聊天应用活跃度普遍增长，其中国内通义、豆包增速显著。在产品层面，谷歌发布了面向开发者的命 令行工具 Gemini CLI 和在图像内文本生成上取得突破的文生图模型 Imagen4。OpenAI 则推出了两款 Deep Research API 新模型（o3 和 o4-mini），分别针对高阶复杂研究和高性价比场景。 - 美光 FY25Q3 业绩全面超预期，数据中心营收同比翻倍，HBM 收入环比增长 50%至 15 亿美元，成为增长核心。公 司持续推进 1-gamma DRAM 与 QLC NAND 产品升级，优化产品结构，带动毛利率回升。CNBU、MBU、EBU 等多条业 务线环比增长显著，消费与嵌入式需求同样强劲。公司预计 FY25Q4 营收将环比增长 15%，全年维持 140 亿美元 CapEx 投入。随着 HBM3E 放量、HBM4 推进及 AI 服务器拉动，公司有望持续受益于数据中心高端内存与存储需求 的结构性增长。 - 6 月 26 日，小米召开发布会，展示了新款折 ...

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，非学科产品合规优质供给仍然有限，头部机构暑期招生反馈良好，看好头部机 构持续扩大市场份额。本周，新东方举行 AI 英语一对一产品发布会，App 将于 7 月 2 日正式上线，积极关注。 奢侈品：宏观经济影响奢侈品销售表现，景气略有承压，部分产品创新能力优秀的品牌逆势高增。近日 Prada 集 团宣布 Prada 品牌首席执行官 Gianfranco D'Attis 将于 6 月 30 日离任，关注后续变化 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持。行业仍具备β性红利，行业门店数依旧呈现净增加态势，龙头同店维持正增 长。2）茶饮，略有承压。外卖平台补贴带动下，行业供给继续增加，有望加剧行业竞争。 电商：略有承压。电商大盘增速放缓，行业竞争依旧激烈；即时零售成为新战场。 旅游消费及 OTA：京东宣布进军酒旅，但酒店供应链长且复杂，短期补贴对行业头部玩家及 OTA 高端酒店业务冲 击有限，关注 OTA 龙头低估值机会。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应持续驱动盈利杠杆释 放，我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台。 虚拟资产 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on four main investment lines, including Hong Kong Exchanges, diversified financials, brokerage firms, and Sichuan Shuangma [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for significant revenue growth in the brokerage sector due to the approval of virtual asset trading services by Guotai Junan International, indicating a shift towards digital assets [2][48]. - It notes that 63% of insurance institutions plan to increase their investment in Hong Kong stocks by 2025, with a significant portion of their overseas investment directed towards this market [4][39]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the non-bank financial sector, with a notable increase in trading volumes and fundraising activities in the equity and bond markets [11][14]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - Guotai Junan International has received approval to provide virtual asset trading services, which could lead to increased revenue if trading volumes surge [2][48]. - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong Exchanges due to expected benefits from market expansion and increased trading activity [3]. Insurance Sector - A survey indicates that 63% of insurance firms plan to boost their investments in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hong Kong market being the preferred destination for overseas investments [4][39]. - The average financial return from investments through the Hong Kong Stock Connect is approximately 15%, which is expected to attract more insurance capital [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.0% and the non-bank financial sector outperforming with a 6.7% rise [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market reached 14,867 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.4% increase week-on-week [14]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses regulatory initiatives aimed at enhancing the commercial insurance sector, including the promotion of innovative insurance products and expanding health insurance coverage [36][38]. - It highlights the significant capital raising activities in the insurance sector, with a total of 692.13 billion yuan raised through equity and debt instruments in the year [40].

划组建电力储能公司。2 月 20 日，内蒙古电力集团在召开的 2025 年储能专业工作会上提出，要以"日日全力以 赴"的使命感做好新型储能电站运营管理，深挖参与现货市场策略，精确计算、精准操作、精益管理，最大限度 提升营收能力。 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。新能源发电：建议关注新能源龙头龙源电力（H）。核电： 建议关注电价市场化占比提升背景下，核电龙头企业中国核电。 本周（6.23-6.27）上证综指上涨 1.91%，创业板指下降 5.69%。碳中和板块上涨 3.60%，环保板块上涨 3.94%， 公用事业板块下跌 0.14%，煤炭板块上涨 1.44%。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 截至 2025 年 5 月底，全国累计发电装机容量约 36.09 亿千瓦，同比增长 18.8%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量约 10.84 亿千瓦，同比增长 56.9%；风电装机容量约 5.67 亿千瓦，同比增长 23.1%；核电装机容量约 0.61 亿千瓦， 同比增长 4.7%；火电装机容量约 14.57 亿千 ...

电力设备与新能源 买入 维持评级 行业月报 行业观点 重点政策/新闻跟踪：1）5 月 30 日，国家发改委、国家能源局联合发布《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的 通知》，促进新能源发电消纳、提高用户侧配置积极性与产品质量要求、助力出口型企业满足碳足迹认证。2）6 月 11- 13 日，SNEC 2025 光伏展于上海盛大举行，今年展会对技术路线的争论有所淡化，通过工艺技术微创新实现提效、以 及新型应用场景的挖掘，或是未来一段时间内企业之间差异化竞争的主旋律。3）6 月 16 日，美国"大美丽法案"参 议院版本公布，被禁外国实体、ITC 补贴退坡等要求趋于宽松，对储能项目利好显著，后续或仍有进一步边际改善可 能。 产业链：价格持续下探，中下游厂商陆续减产。1）硅料：价格下跌,截至 6 月 18 日，N 型复投料/N 型颗粒硅价 格分别为 3.44/3.35 万元/吨，环比 5 月底-8.3%/-2.9%，丰水期来临，硅料企业短期产量呈增加态势，预计 6 月产出 环比增加 4%至 10.6 万吨，同时下游硅片跌价带动硅料价格预期下滑，部分企业迫于出货压力，价格严重松动。2）硅 片：终端需求疲弱，成交重心下移，硅 ...

证券研究报告 轻工行业2025年中期投资策略 把握新型烟草潮玩布局节奏，重视传统轻工结构性机会 分析师：赵中平 执业编号：S1130524050003 分析师：张杨桓 执业编号：S1130522090001 分析师：尹新悦 执业编号：S1130522080004 2025年6月26日 投资要点：把握新型烟草潮玩布局节奏，重视传统轻工结构性机会 整体布局思路：2025年H1与新消费相关板块领涨，而传统轻工板块估值普遍处于历史底部。展望25H2布局方向，新消费板块整体景气度依然 较高，仍值关注，而在目前估值分位普遍相对较高的情况下，需优选布局方向，把握布局节奏。一方面根据我们提出的新消费筛选框架（结 合行业壁垒、发展成熟度等指标）选择赛道成长确定性强与天花板较高的板块，另一方面结合目前相关细分板块、龙头标的的估值分位，建 议H2依然优选新型烟草+潮玩板块，其次轻工个护、AI眼镜、宠物食品等。此外，我们建议Q3起逐步增加估值处于低位的传统轻工板块布局， 重点建议关注红利型与底部反转型标的布局机遇。 ➢ 新消费板块：新消费可划分成功能价值线和情绪价值线，结合筛选框架，25H2分别首选新型烟草和潮玩板块，其次关注轻工个 ...