通信周观点： 1）英伟达 H20 恢复对华销售，本周数据中心板块大涨。英伟达宣布重启 H20 销售，并将在中国新推 RTX PRO 芯片， 该芯片主要应用于计算机图形渲染、数字孪生仿真和人工智能训练。受此消息提振，国内云计算及数据中心相关股票 集体上涨，反映出市场对算力供给改善的乐观预期。我们认为 H20 恢复供货利好国内 IDC 厂商，华为云、阿里云等超 大规模云厂商的 AI 训练和大模型部署能力有望提升。展望 2H25，我们预计国内互联网巨头资本支出环比有望保持增 长，带动国产算力链共振。2）ASML 和台积电 2Q25 业绩超预期，AI 需求为核心驱动力。ASML2Q25 净销售额 77 亿欧 元，同比增长 23.2%；净利润 22.9 亿欧元，同比增长 45.1%。台积电第二季度营收 9,338 亿新台币，同比增长 38.6%； 净利润 3,983 亿元台币，环比/同比增长 10.2%/60.7%，远超市场预期。台积电业绩超预期主要得益于 AI 驱动的 3/5nm 需求结构性增长，尤其是英伟达等北美大客户订单的强劲表现。展望未来，公司预计 2025 年销售额将同比增长 30%左 右，高于此前 20%的 ...

核心观点 运动龙头 25Q2 流水稳健，期待经营继续改善。2025Q2，运动服饰行业龙头公司在需求波动的背景下展现出良好的经 营韧性流水保持稳健，展现出较强的经营韧性，在耐克营收增速下滑背景下实现市场份额的提升。安踏体育多品牌 矩阵优势持续发挥，主品牌以及 FILA 流水稳健增长，迪桑特、可隆与 MAIA 等新品牌增长显著；李宁渠道与产品持 续调整，Q2 流水（不包含李宁 YOUNG）同比录得低单位数增长；特步主品牌 Q2 录得低单位数增长，索康尼录得 20% 以上增长，新品牌维持较高增速；361 度 Q2 主品牌/童装/电商同比录得约 10%/10%/20%增长，线上线下同步发力， 超品店效率显著提升。各公司通过多品牌运营、新业态拓展及赛事营销驱动增长，产品端大力发展专业运动板块， 如安踏 PG7、马赫；李宁飞电、越影；特步 160X；361 度飞飚等系列持续迭代，跑鞋流水增速高于其他品类，同时依 靠电商渠道拉动流水增长并减轻库存压力。库销比整体维持在 4-5 个月的健康水平且折扣可控。各大公司维持全年 指引，期待产品、渠道持续调整叠加 24H2 基数下降情况下 25H2 经营数据环比进一步改善。 若羽臣 ...

当下市场的位置：中报预告行情的尾声 2025 年 7 月以来，市场经历了一轮中报预告行情：2025H1 预告增速较高的行业，往往市场表现较好、盈利预测上调 较多。从历史经验看，市场对于中报业绩的重视程度往往从 6 月以来逐步回升，并在 7 月上半月达到阶段峰值随后回 落，这意味着过去半个月的中报预告行情当下可能已经步入尾声，市场将寻找新的方向。 关税通胀效应显现，美国未来可能有读数上的"滞胀" 美国 6 月 CPI 显示：关税的影响已经开始显现，美国对外依赖度较高的部门往往也是 6 月 CPI 分项上涨较多的部门， 但关税影响的可能尚未充分显现：一方面，库存可能是价格传导的缓冲垫。批发商作为今年(指 2025 年，下同)以来 美国补库的主要力量，为价格传导提供了一定的缓冲带。结合批发商与零售商的库消比来看，4 月加征关税之后，批 发商采购的涨价商品开始在 6 月的通胀中体现可能才是刚刚开始。另一方面，未来依然面临企业转嫁成本的问题。除 关税外，美国从工业化国家进口的制造业产品价格自 2 月以来就持续上涨，其中，4 月和 6 月的上涨都是超季节性的， 这意味着当下中间商可能已经面临选择压力。结合纽约联储 6 月 ...

风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 甘肃电力供应结构和系统压力事件与英国存在相似性，因此新能源有效容量系数假设相近。根据甘肃省容量电 价新政，风电、光伏机组的有效容量根据装机容量扣除厂用电后的 7%、1%确定，而 24/25 交付年英国容量市场 拍卖中，陆风和光伏的有效容量系数分别为 7.81%和 2.34%。 ◼ 从欧洲经验看，冬季极端天气对高可再生能源渗透率的电力系统的考验大于夏季极端天气事件。年内最大负荷 出现在夏季、新能源渗透率尚低的 PJM 市场，25/26 交付年的基本拍卖中，光伏有效容量系数平均约为 11.5%， 陆风、海风有效容量系数分别为 35%和 60%。但截至 24 年底，PJM 市场风电、光伏合计装机容量占比仅达 12.2%，属于低渗透率系统。参考海外实践经验和自然地理特征，可以推断甘肃新能源有效容量系数取值对北方 地区具备参考价值，而南方地区新能源合理有效容量系数或介于甘肃和 PJM 市场之间。 行情回顾： ◼ 本周（7.14-7.18）上证综指上涨 1.09%，创业板指上涨 2.36%。碳中和板块上涨 3.52%，环保板块上涨 3.07%， 公用事业板块上涨 1.28%， ...

市场表现方面，本周市场继续强势向上，其中申万化工指数上涨 1.77%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.68%。标的方面， 本周 AI PCB 产业链龙头和涨价方向化工龙头表现突出。大化工行业边际变化，本周变化较多，一是韩国泰光宣布将 暂停中国子公司部分氨纶生产线运营，氨纶行业洗牌有加速的可能；二是科思创宣布其 TDA/TDI、基于 OTDA 的产 品、聚醚多元醇产品遭遇不可抗力，TDI 价格应声上涨；三是杜邦的标志性高性能品牌—Nomex 和 Kevlar 现已挂牌 出售；四是安徽皖维集团有限责任公司国内首创大尺寸聚乙烯醇光学膜国产化关键核心设备顺利交付，标志着其年 产 2000 万平方米 TFT 偏光片用宽幅聚乙烯醇光学膜项目向全面投产迈出关键一步；五是巴斯夫发布了 2025 年第二 季度的业绩，业绩承压明显；六是中国央行主管媒体称当前的一个政策抓手是扩内需、治内卷，当前反内卷的呼声 越高，该方向值得持续关注。关税方面，本周事件包括欧盟准备对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税、特朗普称与 印尼达成协议，从近期的谈判的情况看，英国税率可能是最低税率的基准。 投资方面，市场风险偏好明显提升，建议可以逐步提高板块仓 ...

事件 2025 年 7 月 16 日，公司官网宣布，其全球同靶点首创双抗依沃 西单抗，用于一线治疗晚期 pMMR/MSS 型（错配修复功能完整/微 卫星稳定）mCRC(转移性结直肠癌)的注册性 3 期临床研究 （AK112-312/HARMONi-GI6）已完成首例患者入组。 点评 全球领先优势，快速全方位筑建中：潜在全球重磅依沃西，肺 癌、胆道癌、乳腺癌、结直肠癌等关键临床全面展开。（1）结直 肠(CRC)是全球第三大高发恶性肿瘤和第二大癌症死因。2022 年 全球新发病例超过 192.6 万（中国新发病例约 51.7 万），约 95% 的 mCRC 患者为 pMMR 或 MSS 型，此类冷肿瘤，免疫治疗反应不 佳，迄今全球尚无此类患者的一线免疫疗法获批。依沃西联合化 疗的初步疗效较好，且不论 KRAS/BRAF 突变，均可获益。此项临 床的展开，将进一步验证依沃西联合化疗在该患者群体中的优越 性，有望成为前述类型 mCRC 患者全新且高效的一线免疫治疗选 择。（2）此前，在肺癌 3 期临床中已单药头对头击败 K 药的依沃 西，在其联用化疗已在 PD-(L)1（程序性细胞死亡因子受体/配体 1）耐药非小细胞 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 7 月 17 日公司披露 25Q2 业绩，25Q2 公司实现营收 300.7 亿美元，同比增长 44.4%，环比增长 17.8%，毛利率为 58.6%，同 比+5.4pcts，环比-0.2pcts，实现净利润 128.0 亿美元，同比 +60.7%，环比+10.2%。 公司指引 25Q3 营收为 318~330 亿美元，毛利率为 55.5%~57.5%， 营业利润率为 45.5%~47.5%。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们认为，公司作为晶圆代工龙头企业，在最先进制程上与竞争 对手优势愈发明显，有望充分受益 AI 芯片需求增长。未来看，AI 有望带动端侧产品创新，公司也有望受益 AI 手机、机器人等端侧 应用起量。我们预计公司 25~27 年净利润分别为 496.86、603.79、 667.68 亿美元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 下游需求不及预期；美国关税风险；研发进度不及预期；行业竞 争加剧；美国制裁加剧。 经营分析 公司毛利率下滑主要因新台币升值导致，公司收入按照美元计价， 报表则会转化为新台币计价。公司所在晶圆代工行业属重资产行 业，折旧占营业成本比重较大，导致新台币升值会对公 ...

基本内容 OBBB 法案的光速通过得以让特朗普在 7 月 4 日留下耀眼的政治成果，也反映出了他在国内事务更强的掌控力。而过去 一个月在对外事务相对沉寂的他或将活力再现，且变得更加强硬，因此 TACO 的反噬风险正在增加。债务上限的解决 也意味着财政部即将发行更多短债以补充 TGA，这会加剧降息诉求，带来新旧联储主席间更激烈的唇枪舌战。 1）大美丽法案落地后，财政将更多"做减法"，呈现出更为明确的减支倾向； 2）对外关税和国际关系重塑更加"务实且激进"，TACO 的反噬风险增加； 基于此，我们认为 25H2 美国存在三个"灰犀牛事件"： 3）新旧联储主席对降息态度差异引发混乱，影子联储主席或拥有"市场主导权"。 无论是预测所谓的"灰犀牛"或是"黑天鹅"，总是困难的，更重要的是沿着"拒绝线性外推"这个逻辑支点去思考： 特朗普达成目标的路径是运动的，但根本诉求（即重返美国的黄金时代）是静止的。 风险提示 1）中东局势不确定性加剧像显著推升油价水平，从而带来更明显的美国通胀。2）特朗普的内政政策面临更大阻力， 财政刺激加码，联储超预期宽松。3）美国金融市场波动加剧，非美资金外流加速，美元加速下跌，引发美国深度衰 退 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the local bond stock reaching 52 trillion yuan as of July 11, 2025. The issuance and trading of local government bonds showed certain characteristics in terms of scale, type, term, and investor structure [11][4][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of July 11, 2025, the local bond stock reached 52 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21%. The major investment areas of special bonds were shantytown renovation, park and new - district construction, and rural revitalization, with stock balances of 1.97 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balances of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and those of water conservancy and ecological projects were over 200 billion yuan. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong had the largest local bond stocks, with 3.42 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.15 trillion yuan respectively, and other GDP - large provinces also had local bond stocks over 2 trillion yuan [11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 231.791 billion yuan were issued, including 134.406 billion yuan of new special bonds and 704.21 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bonds were "ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds". As of July 17, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in July had reached 28.632 billion yuan, accounting for 3.74% of the monthly local bond issuance. The 7 - 10 - year local bonds had a relatively high issuance proportion of 40.67%. The average coupon rates of major - term local bonds were basically the same as two weeks ago. The interest - rate spreads between 30 - year and 20 - year local bonds and the corresponding - term treasury bonds narrowed slightly. The upper limit of the tender interest rate dropped significantly compared to two weeks ago, and the primary - market bidding sentiment was sluggish. Two provinces, Inner Mongolia and Guizhou, had new bond issuances last week, with Inner Mongolia issuing 6.89 billion yuan mainly in terms within 7 years and 7 - 10 years, and Guizhou issuing 40.832 billion yuan mainly in 20 - 30 - year terms, and the issuance interest rates were below 2% [4][26][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yields of local government bonds have been on a continuous downward - trending oscillation. As of July 11, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.78%, and the interest - rate spread with the corresponding - term treasury bonds was 11.47BP, at the 14.6% quantile in the past 24 years. The quantiles of price differences for 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 28.1% and 52.6% respectively. The trading turnover rates of major - term local bonds increased slightly last week, with the highest weekly turnover rate of 0.82% for bonds over 10 years. Guangdong had the most trading transactions last week, with over 50 transactions. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 17.3 years, and the average yield was 1.91%. Commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 33.574 billion yuan, and the purchase proportion of 20 - 30 - year and above varieties reached 73.52% [5][38][43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it can be inferred that there is a positive outlook for the life insurance sector, particularly for leading companies [5]. Core Insights - The life insurance sector is experiencing high growth driven by bancassurance, with companies like Xinhua and Taibao expected to see year-on-year growth rates of 22.7% and 9.7% respectively by H1 2025, supported by both new and renewal premiums [2]. - The property insurance sector is showing a slowdown in growth, with Taibao and Zhong An expected to see year-on-year growth rates of 0.9% and 9.3% respectively by H1 2025, influenced by the reduction in certain business lines [2]. - The life insurance sector is anticipated to undergo a value reassessment due to improved expectations and better-than-expected Q2 results, with many companies likely to report positive growth in profits [3]. - Positive factors for the life insurance sector include regulatory guidance favoring cost reduction, potential recovery in interest spreads, and an increase in market share for bancassurance [3]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The life insurance premium growth is significantly driven by bancassurance, with new premium growth of 20.6% for Taibao, primarily from bancassurance channels [2]. - The overall sentiment in the life insurance sector is improving, with expectations of a recovery in interest spreads and a favorable regulatory environment [3]. Property Insurance - The growth rate for property insurance is slowing, with Taibao's car insurance and non-car insurance segments showing mixed results [2]. - Zhong An's growth is expected to slow down due to the reduction in certain business lines, although health and car insurance segments continue to show high growth [2]. Investment Recommendations - There is a recommendation to invest in undervalued leading life insurance companies due to their strong fundamentals and potential for long-term value [3]. - The property insurance sector is viewed as a defensive investment, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3].