Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations for significant growth in capital expenditures from major companies like Amazon and Google, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1][26]. Core Insights - Amazon raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $200 billion, a more than 50% increase from $131 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand signals in AI hardware and cloud services [1]. - Google's parent company, Alphabet, expects its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double its 2025 spending, reflecting robust growth in its cloud business [1]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to lead to a significant increase in ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) production from companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft, with a projected explosive growth in 2026-2027 [1][4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Capital Expenditure and Demand - Amazon's AWS cloud division saw a 24% year-over-year growth, with a backlog of $244 billion, indicating strong enterprise investment in AI and core cloud services [1]. - Google's cloud revenue reached $17.7 billion in Q4, a 48% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for enterprise-level AI products [1]. 2. AI Hardware and ASIC Demand - The report highlights the strong demand for AI-related hardware, with Amazon's self-developed Trainium chip showing a 30%-40% cost advantage over similar GPUs, leading to significant revenue potential [1]. - Companies are expected to ramp up production of new generation ASIC chips, with Amazon and Google entering a phase of increased demand and production [1][4]. 3. PCB and Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, with companies expanding production capacity due to strong orders driven by AI applications [4][26]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is also expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in light of global supply chain challenges [23][25]. 4. Specific Company Insights - Companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for semiconductor equipment and materials, with a focus on domestic production and technological advancements [28][25]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential for companies involved in AI-related PCB manufacturing, with expectations for sustained high growth in performance and revenue [4][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, particularly focusing on price increase chains and structural economic growth [3][14]. Core Insights - The building materials sector is currently experiencing a price increase chain, with fiberglass leading the way due to a significant price rise in ordinary electronic cloth, which is expected to enhance profitability in the fiberglass sector [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Fifteen Five" plan, suggesting that March-April 2023 could see a strong start for the sector, recommending continued investment during the pre-holiday off-season [3][14]. - Key sectors to watch include electronic cloth, domestic coatings/waterproofing, domestic cement, and domestic glass, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [3][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The building materials sector is performing well, driven by price increases, particularly in fiberglass and consumer building materials, which resonate with downstream real estate data [3][14]. - The report ranks confidence in structural economic growth, external demand, and internal demand, with a focus on specific sub-sectors [3][14]. Market Performance - The building materials index decreased by 0.67% this week, with notable performances in glass manufacturing and consumer building materials [21]. - The average national cement price is reported at 342 RMB/ton, down 53 RMB/ton year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 24.6% [17][31]. Price Changes - The national average price for float glass is reported at 1154.49 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.69 RMB/ton [17][44]. - The report notes that the average price for electronic cloth has increased significantly, enhancing profitability expectations for the fiberglass sector [3][14]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Giant, Keda Manufacturing, and Shengfeng Cement, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][14].

上海收储二手房政策的落地，标志着地方政府的收储思路发生转变，同时也意味着核心区域的老破小价格的底部信号 已经显现。往前看，上海收储二手房的模式有望在其他重点城市推广，这也为核心城区"老破小"价格触底奠定基础。 相比之下，"改善房"价格年内是否需要经历一轮补跌，主要取决于预期的变化，重点关注"小阳春"期间核心城市租 金价格和二手房挂牌量的变化。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 新房方面，本周（1.31-2.6）景气度下行趋缓，47 城新房成交量整体保持稳定，较去年农历同期下降 20.6%，降幅有 所走阔。当前新房市场处于淡季，新房二手房需求跷跷板效应持续显现。春节后房地产市场将进入"小阳春"，预计新 房成交将出现改善。 图表1：新房成交整体保持稳定 二手房方面，本周（1.31-2.6）景气度底部企稳，临近春节 22 城二手房成交量出现季节性回落，环比增速-2.7%；较 去年农历同期下降 11.3%，降幅较上周继续收窄。但整体看，1 月中下旬以来重点城市二手房成交强于季节性。 0 50 100 150 20 ...

风险提示 本周观点 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店；库迪结束 9.9 元活动，整体咖啡 行业价格竞争趋缓，但需关注开店带来的阶段性稀释效应。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成 为引流品，补贴以相对趋缓的节奏退坡，数据依旧具备韧性。 电商：持续承压。2025 年实物商品网上零售额 130923 亿元，增长 5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 26.1%， 受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商表现平淡；但关注 AI 带来的电商广告推荐提效。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放， 我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台，估值具备性价比。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：加密市场催化有限，资本流入疲软，币价承压。本周中国人民银行、中国证监会等八 部门联合发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》；中国证监会公布〔2026〕1 号文件：《 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of significant growth in capital expenditures from major companies like Amazon and Google, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1][26]. Core Insights - Amazon raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $200 billion, a more than 50% increase from $131 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand signals in AI hardware and cloud services [1]. - Google's parent company, Alphabet, expects its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double its 2025 spending, reflecting robust growth in its cloud business [1]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to lead to a significant increase in ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) numbers from major tech companies, with a projected explosive growth in 2026-2027 [1][4]. - The semiconductor and PCB (Printed Circuit Board) sectors are anticipated to benefit from the strong demand for AI, with many companies in these areas experiencing high order volumes and expansion plans [4][26]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI and Cloud Infrastructure - Amazon's AWS cloud division saw a 24% year-over-year growth, with a backlog of $244 billion, indicating strong enterprise investment in AI and cloud services [1]. - Google's cloud revenue reached $17.7 billion in Q4, a 48% increase year-over-year, driven by strong demand for enterprise-level AI products [1]. Section 2: Semiconductor and PCB Industry - The PCB industry is maintaining high demand due to the growth in automotive and industrial applications, with expectations of price increases for copper-clad laminates [6]. - AI-driven demand is expected to boost PCB prices and volumes, with companies actively expanding production to meet this demand [4][26]. Section 3: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is seeing a continuous expansion of AI applications, particularly in the Apple supply chain, with innovations in foldable devices and AI glasses [5]. - The demand for AI-enabled devices is expected to drive significant growth in the market, with various manufacturers exploring new product categories [5]. Section 4: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with significant capital expenditures expected to support the growth of advanced manufacturing processes [23][25]. - The materials sector is also poised for improvement, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in response to international supply chain challenges [25][34]. Section 5: Company-Specific Insights - Companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for semiconductor equipment and materials, with strong growth prospects in their respective markets [28][30]. - Three Ring Group is focusing on high-capacity MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) products, which are expected to see increased demand due to AI applications [33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the steel industry, with expectations of price stability in the near term [11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a phase where raw material inventory is increasing, and steel production is at an early stage. The expectation is that iron ore prices will decline due to the completion of spring raw material replenishment by steel mills [11][12]. - The profitability of steel companies is reported at 39.4%, indicating a stable bottom for the steel industry fundamentals. However, the market sentiment is weak as demand is expected to decrease with the approach of the Spring Festival [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in the utilization rate of hot-rolled steel mills to 78.98%, with a slight reduction in weekly production and an increase in inventory levels [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is experiencing a slight recovery in price margins, with a week-on-week increase of 15.7 CNY, although companies are still facing losses of 22.3 CNY per ton [11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 3.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.7% [11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled steel prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have adjusted downwards by 20 CNY/ton, with a national average price of 3284 CNY/ton [12]. - The total inventory of medium-thick plates in the country is reported at 2.55 million tons, with a decrease of 2.19 million tons from the previous week [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The average price index for 62% Australian iron ore in January was 106.05 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6% from December [14]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron ore inventory at steel mills, with a total inventory increase of 11.38 million tons compared to the end of the previous month [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - The operating rate of blast furnaces is reported at 79.53%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53 percentage points [13]. - The daily average pig iron production is 2.2858 million tons, which is an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous week [13].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [1][14] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons [1][14] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is expected to drop by 28.52% to 38.36% next week due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][14] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [2][15] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 258,500 tons [2][15] - The overall aluminum processing operating rate recorded 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant divergence within the sector [2][15] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while the 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88% [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks [3][16] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, indicating rising concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [3][16] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 1.20% this week, with December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand for rare earths [4][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 11.98% this week, driven by tight supply conditions and increased strategic reserves in the U.S. [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" by U.S. lawmakers is expected to elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - Recommended companies include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4][38] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [4][53] - Total lithium carbonate production this week was 20,700 tons, reflecting a slight decrease [4][53] - Market sentiment remains cautious as downstream purchasing activity is expected to slow down as inventory levels stabilize [4][53] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [5][54] - The market for cobalt intermediates is characterized by limited transactions, with prices holding steady amid geopolitical supply concerns [5][54] - Long-term structural shortages in raw materials may support future price increases [5][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, particularly focusing on price increase chains and structural prosperity chains [3][14]. Core Insights - The building materials sector is currently experiencing a price increase chain, with fiberglass leading the way due to a significant price rise in ordinary electronic cloth, which is expected to enhance profitability in the fiberglass sector [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming months (March-April) for potential growth, suggesting that investors should continue to focus on key sectors such as electronic cloth, domestic coatings/waterproofing, domestic cement, and domestic glass [3][14]. - The report highlights the potential of companies like Shengfeng Cement, which has a stable business model and is investing in new economic projects, indicating a strong cash flow and future investment returns [4][16]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The building materials sector is performing well, driven by price increases, particularly in fiberglass and electronic cloth [3][14]. - The report suggests a focus on structural prosperity chains and external demand chains, with a positive outlook for various sub-sectors [3][14]. Market Performance - The building materials index decreased by 0.67%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing showing a 2.00% increase, while cement manufacturing saw a decline of 1.05% [21]. - The report notes that the average price of cement is currently 342 RMB/ton, down 53 RMB/ton year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 24.6% [17][31]. Price Changes in Building Materials - The average price of float glass increased to 1154.49 RMB/ton, reflecting a rise of 9.69 RMB/ton, with inventory levels showing a slight increase [17][44]. - The report indicates that the price of electronic cloth has risen significantly, enhancing the profitability outlook for the fiberglass sector [3][14]. Industry Trends - The report identifies a strong demand for AI-PCB upstream materials, particularly in substrate materials, driven by CPU shortages and price increases in downstream products [5][16]. - The report also highlights the importance of UTG glass and TCO glass in the aerospace energy sector, driven by advancements in solar energy production [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach to the cryptocurrency market due to the current low sentiment and advises focusing on companies with strong earnings reports or those transitioning to AI data centers [4][24]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decline, with a total market capitalization of $2.17 trillion, down 23.6% from the previous week. Bitcoin's lowest price during the week was $60,074, and Ethereum's was $1,749 [1][10]. - The average holding price for Bitcoin is approximately $55,174, which is lower than the short-term investors' cost basis, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. The Fear and Greed Index is at 8, reflecting "extreme fear" [11][1]. - Global cryptocurrency trading volume increased by 60.2% week-on-week, with Coinbase's spot trading volume rising by 113.9% [15][16]. Global Policy and Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued guidelines for the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens overseas, which will be regulated by different authorities based on the type of asset [2][17]. - Tether reported record highs in Q4 2025, with a market cap of $187.3 billion and a user base of 535 million, marking significant growth [21][2]. - Ondo launched a platform for real-time trading of U.S. stocks post-IPO, allowing global users to trade major stocks and ETFs with leverage [21][2]. Company News - Bullish reported a record digital asset sales figure of $64.3 billion for Q4 2025, despite a net loss of $560 million. The company has become the second-largest Bitcoin options trading platform [22][3]. - Gemini announced a 25% workforce reduction and will focus on the U.S. market, exiting the UK and European markets [22][3]. - Cipher Mining plans to issue senior secured notes to raise $2 billion for data center construction [23][3]. - Bitfarms is transitioning from Bitcoin mining to developing high-performance computing and AI data centers, relocating its headquarters to the U.S. [23][3]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current market conditions, the report recommends maintaining caution and focusing on companies that are performing well during earnings season or those transitioning to AI data centers, such as Applied Digital and IREN Limited [4][24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper price on LME decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. The copper inventory in major regions increased by 4.03% week-on-week, and total inventory rose by 6,270 tons year-on-year [1][14] - The aluminum price on LME dropped by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price decreased by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton. The aluminum processing industry showed a comprehensive operating rate of 57.9%, down by 1.5% week-on-week [2][15] - The gold price on COMEX increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and rising expectations of interest rate cuts [3][16] - The rare earth sector saw a price increase for praseodymium and neodymium oxide by 1.20%, with expectations of improved demand due to relaxed export policies [4][35] - Tungsten prices rose by 11.98% due to tight supply conditions, while tin prices fell by 15.81% amid inventory depletion [4][38] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, and Shanghai copper price fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. The processing fee index dropped to -$52.37 per ton. Copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week [1][14] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 60.15%, with an increase of 0.69% week-on-week. The industry maintained stable production due to new orders from State Grid [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum price fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton. The aluminum processing industry showed a comprehensive operating rate of 57.9%, down by 1.5% week-on-week [2][15] - The operating rate for primary aluminum alloy dropped to 57.9% due to holiday impacts and high aluminum prices [2][15] Precious Metals - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons [3][16] Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 1.20%. December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showed a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The sector is expected to benefit from relaxed export policies and increased demand [4][36] Tungsten and Tin - Tungsten prices rose by 11.98% due to tight supply conditions, while tin prices fell by 15.81% amid inventory depletion [4][38] - The supply of tin is expected to remain tight due to lower-than-expected production from Indonesia and Myanmar [4][38] Lithium and Cobalt - Lithium carbonate price decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide price fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton. The total lithium production was 20,700 tons, down slightly [4][53] - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with stable prices for cobalt intermediates [5][54]