风险提示 国金·月度金股 3 月： | 代码 | 简称 | 行业 | 收盘价(元) | 流通市值 | EPS(元) | | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2026/2/26 | 亿元 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 工业金属 | 30.99 | 1074.71 | 1.79 | 2.17 | 17.36 | 14.31 | | 002493.SZ | 荣盛石化 | 炼化及贸易 | 15.27 | 1429.61 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 91.44 | 48.48 | | 603308.SH | 应流股份 | 通用设备 | 73.06 | 496.10 | 0.66 | 0.92 | 111.37 | 79.41 | | 601211.SH | 国泰海通 | 证券Ⅱ | 18.97 | 2560.36 | 1.62 | 1.42 | 11.71 | 13.36 | | 600642.SH | 申能股份 | 电力 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected PE ratios of 42, 34, and 27 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.584 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 821 million RMB, up 22% year-on-year [2] - The company's core product, PFA, has been well-promoted, leading to synergistic growth. The company emphasizes cost control, focusing R&D and sales expenses on market promotion, clinical validation, and next-generation product development [2] - The product pipeline is continuously advancing, with new products in coronary and peripheral business expected to enter a harvest phase. The company is actively conducting various marketing activities to enhance product coverage and admission rates [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 821 million RMB, 1.009 billion RMB, and 1.290 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 22%, 23%, and 28% respectively [4] - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 25.08% in 2025, 22.52% in 2026, and 26.85% in 2027 [9] - The diluted earnings per share are forecasted to be 5.818 RMB in 2025, 7.157 RMB in 2026, and 9.147 RMB in 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $68.127 billion for FY26Q4, representing a year-on-year growth of 73%. The GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins were 75.0% and 75.2%, respectively, with net profits of $42.96 billion and $39.55 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 94% and 79% [2]. - For FY27Q1, the company guides revenue to be around $78 billion (±2%), excluding data center revenue from China, with expected gross margins of 74.9% and 75.0% for GAAP and Non-GAAP, respectively [2]. - The data center revenue reached $62.314 billion in FY26Q4, up 75% year-on-year, with network revenue contributing approximately $11 billion. The company is set to commercialize the Vera Rubin CPU in the second half of the year, which is crucial for AI applications [3]. - The company anticipates diversification in its customer base, moving beyond the top five cloud service providers that currently account for over 50% of its revenue. Strategic investments, such as in Anthropic, aim to expand its AI ecosystem [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in AI chips, benefiting from ongoing AI development. The product iterations and the high moat created by the CUDA platform are expected to maintain its competitive advantage [4]. - Projected net profits for FY27, FY28, and FY29 are $217.6 billion, $307.4 billion, and $381.1 billion, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from $215.938 billion in FY26 to $401.342 billion in FY27, reflecting a growth rate of 85.9% [9]. - The net profit is expected to increase from $120.067 billion in FY26 to $217.582 billion in FY27, with a growth rate of 81.2% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from $4.94 in FY26 to $8.95 in FY27 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $68.127 billion for FY26Q4, representing a year-over-year increase of 73%. The GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins were 75.0% and 75.2%, respectively, with net profits of $42.96 billion and $39.55 billion, reflecting increases of 94% and 79% year-over-year [2]. - For FY27Q1, the company guides revenue expectations at $78 billion (±2%), excluding data center revenue from China, with projected gross margins of 74.9% and 75.0% for GAAP and Non-GAAP, respectively [2]. - The data center revenue grew rapidly, reaching $62.314 billion in FY26Q4, a 75% increase year-over-year, with network revenue contributing approximately $11 billion. The company plans to commercialize the Vera Rubin CPU in the second half of the year, which is expected to enhance performance in data processing and AI applications [3]. - The company anticipates diversifying its customer base beyond the top five cloud service providers, which currently account for over 50% of its revenue. Strategic investments, such as in Anthropic, aim to expand the AI ecosystem around the company's CUDA platform [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in AI chips, benefiting from ongoing AI development. The product lineup continues to evolve, with the Vera Rubin expected to be a significant contributor to revenue growth. The company is well-positioned in networking, computing power, and software ecosystems [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $217.6 billion, $307.4 billion, and $381.1 billion for FY27, FY28, and FY29, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4]. - Revenue forecasts for FY27, FY28, and FY29 are $401.342 billion, $562.932 billion, and $692.407 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 85.9%, 40.3%, and 23.0% [9].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering the issuance rhythm, pricing, regional differences in the primary market, and trading characteristics in the secondary market. It shows that the issuance and trading of local government bonds have certain regional characteristics, and their performance in the secondary market lags behind that of treasury bonds and high - grade credit bonds [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - During the week before the festival (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.13), local government bonds issued a total of 322.136 billion yuan, including 195.074 billion yuan of new special bonds and 44.645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts". As of now, about 429.07 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds have been issued in February, accounting for 37.05% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [3][10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 0.8BP, 2.2BP, and 2.8BP respectively. The spread between new bonds and treasury bonds of the same term was slightly compressed, with a decline of less than 1bp, but the spread of the 30 - year variety was still similar to the reading in mid - January [3][17]. - Regionally, Hebei and Jiangxi were the main regions for local bond issuance in February. Among the regions with large issuance scales, the proportion of local bonds with a term of over 10 years issued in Henan and Zhejiang exceeded 80%, and the average coupon rates of the two regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance rate of local bonds in Henan reached 2.4% [3][19]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The increase of local bonds was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. During the week before the festival, the indices of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds rose by 0.13% and 0.16% respectively. With the entry of funds holding bonds for the festival, treasury bonds with stronger liquidity were easier to obtain, and long - term credit bonds were also favored by some institutions due to their absolute returns. Local bonds failed to outperform treasury bonds of the same term and high - grade credit bonds [4][23]. - In terms of different provinces, government bonds in Jiangsu and Guangdong were actively traded, and the trading volumes in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Henan increased by more than 40 transactions compared with the previous period. In addition, in regions where the average yield was above 2.25%, the trading terms were mostly extended to over 20 years. Notably, the average trading yields of local bonds in Henan and Guangxi reached 2.27% and 2.35% respectively, with average terms of 19.9 years and 18.8 years [4][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including a 60% stake in the Hungarian packaging company Gelbert for €6.54 million (approximately 53.48 million RMB), which positions it to establish a foothold in the European market [1]. - The acquisition of Gelbert is valued at 6.4 times the target company's 2024 EBITDA, suggesting a low valuation and potential for growth through local production and service capabilities [2]. - The company also plans to acquire a 51% stake in Dongguan Huayan Technology for 449 million RMB, with performance-based valuation adjustments tied to future profit targets [2][3]. - The overall valuation for Huayan Technology is set at 880 million RMB, reflecting an 8x multiple on the average target net profit for 2026-2028, indicating strong support from major shareholders [3]. - The company's strategy focuses on expanding beyond packaging into non-packaging sectors, enhancing supply chain integration, and targeting new consumer markets, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.78, 1.93, and 2.30 RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [4]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a decline of 6.96% in 2023, followed by growth rates of 12.71% in 2024 and 4.29% in 2025, with further increases expected in subsequent years [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease slightly in 2023 but is projected to grow significantly by 16.21% in 2025 and 18.94% in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its market presence in Europe and diversify its operations beyond packaging [2][3] - The acquisition of Gelbert, a Hungarian packaging company, allows the company to leverage Gelbert's established customer network and market reputation in Central and Eastern Europe, improving local production and delivery capabilities [2] - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Dongguan Huayan Technology for 449 million yuan is expected to directly enhance the company's overall performance and integrate into the core supply chain of its clients [3] - The company is transitioning from a growth-oriented model to a more integrated service capability, aiming to expand into new consumer sectors such as AI and trendy products [3] Summary by Sections Event Summary - On February 25, the company announced the acquisition of 60% of Gelbert for 6.54 million euros (approximately 53.48 million yuan), marking its entry into the European core market [1] Operational Analysis - The acquisition price corresponds to a low valuation of 6.4 times the target company's 2024 EBITDA, indicating a favorable entry point [2] - The company aims to enhance its local service capabilities and order acquisition through this strategic move [2] - The acquisition of Huayan Technology is valued at 880 million yuan, representing 8 times the average target net profit for 2026-2028, reflecting strong support from major shareholders [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of 1.78, 1.93, and 2.30 yuan for 2025-2027, with current PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times respectively [4] - Revenue is expected to grow from 15,223 million yuan in 2023 to 22,468 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.47% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 6.6 billion, 9.7 billion, and 13.6 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 46%, and 41% [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.3 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 660 million RMB, up 14.9% year-on-year, indicating performance in line with expectations [2][4]. - Significant growth in the data center business and steady growth in the new energy and other business segments were highlighted, with the company transitioning from a single transformer supplier to a comprehensive power solution provider [3][4]. - The company is focusing on its core business and advancing digital transformation to optimize operational efficiency and management quality, which contributed to the increase in net profit [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 6.668 billion RMB in 2023, 6.901 billion RMB in 2024, 7.299 billion RMB in 2025, 9.144 billion RMB in 2026, and 11.546 billion RMB in 2027, with respective growth rates of 40.5%, 3.5%, 5.8%, 25.3%, and 26.3% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 505 million RMB in 2023, 574 million RMB in 2024, 660 million RMB in 2025, 967 million RMB in 2026, and 1.361 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 78.15%, 13.82%, 14.93%, 46.46%, and 40.71% [9]. - The report indicates a diluted earnings per share of 1.182 RMB for 2023, increasing to 2.959 RMB by 2027 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Citrini Research's 2028 AI doomsday prophecy is a perfect brainstorm, but the real - world economy is a super - chaotic system. Prophets often underestimate human beings' self - adaptive ability. There is no reason to be overly pessimistic about the AI era [2][4][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs John Keynes - "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren": Endless Human Desires - Keynes in 1930 predicted that by 2030, living standards would increase 4 - 8 times and humans would work 15 hours a week, similar to Citrini's AI doomsday theory. However, this view underestimates the expansion of human desires. AI may eliminate old jobs, but human desires will create new ones [6] - The AI doomsday theory assumes that humans will stop striving and enjoy leisure passively, which does not conform to social development logic. "Freedom" and "fairness" are the core drivers and ultimate goals of economic development [7][8] Bertrand Russell - "In Praise of Idleness": Leisure as a "Civilization Asset" rather than a "Political Liability" - "In Praise of Idleness" is like the origin of the 2028 AI doomsday prophecy but with a milder tone. The real - world response to technological progress is different from Russell's assumption, and the AI doomsday theory over - worries about the loss of purchasing power due to job loss [9] - Leisure is a "civilization asset" that can be transformed into creativity. The political system will take measures to hedge against high unemployment, and the AI doomsday theory ignores this spontaneous adjustment [10] - Both "In Praise of Idleness" and the AI doomsday theory have flaws, and the resilience of the social structure is stronger than expected [11] Robert Solow - "The Solow Paradox": Inertia of Production Relations - The AI doomsday theory criticizes "The Solow Paradox" and warns that the "invisibility" of technology progress may bring huge impacts. However, historical experience shows that the transformation of technology into productivity is relatively slow, and the so - called "doomsday" will be offset by the "time - lag effect" [12] - The impact of AI on employment and production relations is less significant than macro - factors and the 2020 public health event. Enterprises are complex interest - game entities, and AI may face resistance. Even if production relations change, human participation will become a scarce asset [13] David Graeber - "On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs: A Work Theory": Ending Meaningless Bullshit Jobs - "On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs" directly refutes the AI doomsday theory. AI can be a trigger for efficiency regression by replacing meaningless jobs, rather than a catalyst for social collapse [14] - AI provides an opportunity for re - distribution, forcing society to shift from "job - centered" to "people - centered". The so - called "doomsday" is actually the end of "bullshit jobs" and a shattering of the collective perception of "everyone must be busy" [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]