【一周一议】 行业公司重组转型进程加快。5 月 16 日，证监会正式发布实施修订后的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，明确支 持符合商业逻辑的跨界并购、建立重组股份对价分期支付机制、新设重组简易审核程序、吸收合并锁定期差异化设置、 鼓励私募基金参与上市公司并购重组等。建筑建材行业重组转型在加快，①4 月 1 日，星空科技拟以 8.03 亿元的对价 收购中旗新材 24.97%股份，星空科技的一致行动人陈耀民拟以 1.61 亿元的对价收购中旗新材 5.01%股份。②5 月 27 日，富煌钢构拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式（拟募集资金不超过 4 亿元）购买中科视界 100%股权。③5 月 30 日， 中天精装全资子公司中天精艺接到中经芯玑告知函，中经芯玑拟以 1.05 亿元、28.82 元/每注册资本的价格认购远见 智存 364.3303 万元新增注册资本。④5 月 31 日，菲林格尔发布《关于筹划控制权变更事项的停牌公告》，实际控制人 丁福如正在筹划公司股份协议转让事宜，该事项可能导致公司控制权发生变更。 继续关注"一带一路"进展，非洲方向看好建材出海第一股科达制造。5 月 25 日，首届全球企业共建高质量"一带 ...

我们调整公司 25~27 年营业收入分别为 25.2/36.8/50.0 亿 元，归母净利润分别为-2.56/0.03/3.53 亿元。公司股票现价 对应 PS 估值为 6.0/4.1/3.1 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 智驾技术路线改变风险；智驾渗透率提升不及预期风险；激 光雷达降本速度不及预期风险；国际局势影响海外销售风险。 业绩简评 盈利预测、估值与评级 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 11.00 25.00 39.00 53.00 67.00 81.00 95.00 240531 240831 241130 250228 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 速腾聚创 恒生指数 公司基本情况（人民币） | 项目 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,120 | 1,649 | 2,524 | 3,675 | 4,998 | | 营业收入增长率 | 111.22% | 47.20% | 53.08% | ...

乳腺癌患者基数大催生治疗药物市场空间广。①患者多，乳腺癌为全球第二大高发的癌种，据世卫组织（WHO）数据 显示，2022 年全球乳腺癌新发患者约 230 万人，占当年新发癌症患者数量的 11.5%；②市场大，2023 年，在靶向药物 CDK4/6 抑制剂（91 亿美元）和 HER2 药物（96 亿美元）强劲增长的推动下，乳腺癌药物的主要市场销售额总计达 281 亿美元。据 Nature 文献预测，乳腺癌治疗药物市场规模预计将持续增长，2027 年有望达到 493 亿美元，期间 CAGR 约为 15%。③单品强，庞大的乳腺癌市场培育出众多销售规模大的众多明星分子，如 CDK4/6 抑制剂 ribociclib/ abemaciclib 于 2024 年全球销售规模分布超 30/53 亿美元，HER2 ADC 分子 Kadcyla 及 Enhertu 于 2024 年销售额也分 别超 20/38 亿美元。明星分子的商业化成功吸引众多药企加大该领域药物研发投入、创新成果频出。 本篇报告将按照乳腺癌三大分型、以现有的治疗指南为基础，探讨国产乳腺癌创新药机会，同时将围绕产品力（疗效 与安全性）、上市先发优势、目标市场覆 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a gross margin increase driven by cost reductions despite a decline in the proportion of lower-priced models [3]. - The company has stabilized sales of its extended-range models, with future growth anticipated from new pure electric models [4]. - The company’s strong product development capabilities and strategic management are expected to support long-term growth, particularly during the high-pressure period for new electric vehicles in 2025-2026 [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 revenue reached 25.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4% [2]. - The company delivered 93,000 vehicles in Q1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.5% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 20.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was 1 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year and 75.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 3.9% [2]. Future Guidance - The company projects Q2 deliveries between 123,000 and 128,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3% to 17.9% [4]. - Revenue guidance for Q2 is set at 34.5 to 33.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 2.5% to 6.7% [4]. - The company expects to maintain its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits projected at 10.76 billion, 13.71 billion, and 17.09 billion yuan respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company has a strong order backlog in the two-machine sector, amounting to 1.228 billion RMB, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth [3]. - The company anticipates that its fundraising projects will generate an annual revenue of 2.109 billion RMB and a net profit of 361-377 million RMB once fully operational [4]. - The company has successfully initiated trial production of blade and casing coating products, with a significant portion of the orders including these processes, indicating potential for future growth in this area [3]. Summary by Sections Event Commentary - On May 28, the company responded to an inquiry regarding its convertible bond application, highlighting a robust order backlog of 1.228 billion RMB in the two-machine sector [2]. Operational Analysis - As of April 30, 2025, the company has 1.017 billion RMB in orders for blades and casings, with an additional 400 million RMB in potential orders under negotiation, totaling over 1.6 billion RMB in orders [3]. - The trial production of coating products for blades and casings has been successful, with 348 million RMB of the existing orders including these processes, representing 42% of the total orders in this category [3]. Fundraising Projects - The company plans to expand its revenue base through projects that are expected to generate 1.466 billion RMB from coating and 643 million RMB from advanced nuclear materials annually, totaling 2.109 billion RMB [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.2 billion RMB, 3.9 billion RMB, and 5 billion RMB, with net profits of 450 million RMB, 630 million RMB, and 890 million RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 31, 22, and 16 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported FY26Q1 revenue of $44.062 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%. The GAAP gross margin was 60.5%, impacted by a $4.5 billion inventory impairment loss related to H20. Excluding this loss, the Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.3% [2]. - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be around $45 billion (±2%), accounting for an $8 billion revenue loss due to H20's ban on sales. The projected GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins for FY26Q2 are 71.8% and 72.0% (±0.5%) respectively [2]. - The data center business continues to grow rapidly, driven by increased demand for inference computing power and the rollout of Blackwell GPUs. FY26Q1 data center revenue reached $39.112 billion, up 73% year-on-year, with computing chip revenue at $34.155 billion, up 76% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gaming business generated $3.763 billion in FY26Q1 revenue, a 42% year-on-year increase, primarily due to customers shifting to purchase RTX5090 and RTX6000 series graphics cards amid limited supply of data center GPUs [3]. - The company anticipates a total impact of $15 billion from H20 for the year, including $4.5 billion in Q1 inventory impairment, $2.5 billion in Q1 revenue loss, and $8 billion in Q2 revenue loss [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve GAAP net profits of $108.208 billion, $135.340 billion, and $152.762 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 48.5%, 25.1%, and 12.9% [4]. - Revenue projections for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are $195.320 billion, $249.578 billion, and $282.771 billion, with growth rates of 49.7%, 27.8%, and 13.3% respectively [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and trading of local government bonds, including an overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary supply, and the characteristics of secondary trading [12][20][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 51.05 trillion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for over 43% and refinancing special bonds accounting for 21% [12]. - Among the bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new - area construction, and rural revitalization were 1.96 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [12]. - As of May 23, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local government bond stock size, with 3.36 trillion, 3.29 trillion, and 3.09 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had a stock size of over 2 trillion yuan [12]. 3.2 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds were issued with a total of 248.521 billion yuan, including 107.564 billion yuan of new special bonds and 48.96 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [20]. - In terms of the use of raised funds, "ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bonds [20]. - As of May 23, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in May had reached 30.168 billion yuan, accounting for 3.87% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [20]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of 7 - 10 - year local bonds was relatively high last week, reaching 32.61%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago [29]. - The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 18.39BP, and the spread of 20 - year local bonds to the same - term treasury bonds slightly narrowed to 7.53BP [29]. - Last week, 8 provinces had new issuances. Zhejiang had the largest new local bond issuance this month, reaching 70.482 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the 7 - 10 - year and 10 - 20 - year terms. Shandong followed with 65.096 billion yuan, mainly in the 7 - 10 - year term [37]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward trend. As of May 23, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.87%, with a spread of 14.92BP to the same - term treasury bonds, at the 29.1% quantile since 2024. The price spread quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 53.6% and 80.4% respectively [38]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for each major term were differentiated. The turnover rate of varieties within 10 years increased compared to two weeks ago, while that of varieties over 10 years decreased. The highest weekly turnover rate was still for varieties within 10 years, at 0.98% [44]. - In terms of regions, Shandong had the most trading volume last week, with 178 transactions. Sichuan, Guangdong, and Zhejiang also had over 100 transactions [44]. - Last week, the average trading term of local bonds was 16.3 years, and the average yield was 2.16% [44]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary trading, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies were still the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds reaching 49.095 billion yuan, of which the purchase proportion of varieties over 20 - 30 years reached 47.06%. Other institutions were all net sellers [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant profit growth in the upcoming years [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $44.062 billion for FY26Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 69% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%. The GAAP gross margin was 60.5%, impacted by a $4.5 billion inventory impairment loss related to H20. Excluding this loss, the Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.3% [2]. - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be around $45 billion, accounting for an $8 billion revenue loss due to H20's ban on sales. The projected GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins for FY26Q2 are 71.8% and 72.0%, respectively [2]. - The data center business continues to grow rapidly, driven by increased demand for inference computing power and the rollout of Blackwell GPUs. In FY26Q1, the data center segment generated $39.112 billion in revenue, a 73% increase year-over-year [2][3]. - The gaming segment achieved $3.763 billion in revenue for FY26Q1, up 42% year-over-year, primarily due to customers shifting to purchase RTX5090 and RTX6000 series graphics cards amid limited supply of data center GPUs [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - FY26Q1 revenue: $44.062 billion, YoY +69%, QoQ +12% - GAAP net profit: $18.775 billion, YoY +26%, QoQ -15% - Non-GAAP net profit: $19.894 billion, YoY +31%, QoQ -10% [2]. Business Segments - Data Center Revenue: $39.112 billion, YoY +73% - Gaming Revenue: $3.763 billion, YoY +42% - Professional Imaging Revenue: $0.509 billion, YoY +19% - Automotive Revenue: $0.567 billion, YoY +72% - OEM Revenue: $0.111 billion, YoY +42% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected GAAP net profits for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are $108.208 billion, $135.340 billion, and $152.762 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 48.5%, 25.1%, and 12.9% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 865 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 10.9 billion CNY, up 46.2% year-on-year [2] - The core local business revenue reached 643 billion CNY, growing 17.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit of 135 billion CNY, reflecting a 39.1% increase and an operating profit margin of 21%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The report highlights the healthy growth in food delivery and strong momentum in instant retail, although increased competition in Q2 may impact profits [3] - New business revenue grew by 19.2% year-on-year to 222 billion CNY, with operating losses narrowing by 17.5% to 2.3 billion CNY [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3862 billion CNY, 4461 billion CNY, and 4979 billion CNY respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 405 billion CNY, 530 billion CNY, and 706 billion CNY [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 17.93, 13.69, and 10.28 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]

Group 1: US Treasury Yield Trends - US Treasury yields have significantly increased since May, with the 1-year yield rising by 30 basis points to 4.15%[5] - The 5-year yield increased by 36 basis points to 4.08%, while the 10-year yield rose by 34 basis points to 4.51%[5] - The 30-year yield surged by 38 basis points to 5.04%, reaching a year-to-date high of 5.08% on May 21[5] Group 2: South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports showed a notable divergence in the first 20 days of May, with a year-on-year decline improving from -5.3% in April to -2.4%[8] - Exports to China, the US, and the EU saw declines, with rates of -7.2%, -14.6%, and -2.7% respectively[8] - Semiconductor exports increased from 10.7% to 17.3%, while other sectors like steel and home appliances faced declines[8] Group 3: Shipping Volume Trends - The import container throughput at the Port of Los Angeles increased by 55.9% year-on-year in the third week of May, with a 21.6% week-on-week rise[10] - The number of vessel calls at the port rose to 21, maintaining an upward trend[10] - Shipping rates from Shanghai to US West and East Coast ports increased by 6.0% and 5.3% respectively[10] Group 4: Online Appliance Sales Growth - Online sales of eight categories of furniture reached 7.16 billion yuan, up from 3.73 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of over 200%[13] - Offline sales decreased by 34%, indicating a shift towards online purchasing[13] - The rapid growth in online sales is attributed to pre-sales for the 618 shopping festival, which began earlier than the previous year[14] Group 5: Economic Growth Indicators - High-frequency data suggests that May's GDP growth rate may stabilize around 5.4%[17] - Car sales and resident travel numbers remained high, supporting service sector production[17] - April's economic data laid a solid foundation for a resilient growth outlook in May[17]