投资建议 见"股票组合"。 行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2026/2/2-2026/2/6）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 0.38%，在申万 31 个一级行业分 类中排名第 11；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 1.33%。2026 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 6.72%，在申万 31 个一 级行业分类中排名第 9；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.29%。 核心观点 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 工程机械全球大周期向上，土方内外销超预期。根据中国工程机械工业协会，2026 年 1 月销售各类挖掘机 1870 8 台，同比增长 49.5%。其中国内销量 8723 台，同比增长 61.4%；出口量 9985 台，同比增长 40.5%，土方内外 销超预期。25Q4 卡特彼勒工程机械板块北美、EAME、亚太、拉丁美洲收入增速分别为+23%、+18%、-7%、+6%，2 5Q3 北美、EAME、亚太、拉丁美洲收入增速分别为+8%、+6%、+3%、-1%，工程机械板块北美、EAME 地区加速增 长，拉美转正，中国工程机械内外销加速叠加海外龙头 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the durable consumer goods industry [1] Core Insights - The durable consumer goods industry is experiencing growth driven by various segments, including trendy toys, new tobacco products, home furnishings, and AI technologies [1][2][3] - The report highlights the expansion of brands like Bubble Mart and the collaboration with Takara Tomy to enhance IP development in the trendy toy sector [1][8] - The new tobacco segment shows long-term growth potential, with companies like Philip Morris International reporting significant revenue increases [2][14] - The home furnishings market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing market, while new housing remains under pressure [15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to regulatory changes in the personal care and AI glasses sectors, which are expected to reshape marketing and distribution strategies [19][23] Summary by Relevant Sections Trendy Toys - Bubble Mart is expanding into the Japanese market and collaborating with Takara Tomy to enhance its IP development [1][8] - The company reported that it aims to sell over 400 million products across all IP categories in 2025, with significant growth in registered members and store numbers [9] New Tobacco - Philip Morris International's revenue reached $40.6 billion in 2025, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase, driven by a 15% increase in new tobacco product sales [14] - The market for heated tobacco products is expected to accelerate, despite potential regulatory challenges in various countries [2][13] Home Furnishings - The report notes a significant increase in transaction volumes in the second-hand housing market, with a 754.6% year-on-year increase in certain cities [15] - Export figures for furniture show a decline, but there is potential for recovery driven by policy support and improved consumer sentiment [16] AI and Personal Care - New regulations are set to transform marketing strategies in the personal care sector, emphasizing compliance and professional channels [19][21] - The AI glasses market is witnessing innovation, with companies like Oakley and Meta launching new products, indicating a growing trend towards smart technology integration [23] 3D Printing - The report highlights advancements in 3D printing technology, particularly in multi-color printing solutions, which are expected to enhance efficiency and usability in consumer applications [35] Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The electric bicycle market is facing challenges due to policy changes and high base effects, while the motorcycle sector is showing positive trends due to regulatory relaxations [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the industry, anticipating a price increase exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [55]. Core Insights - The global TV market is expected to experience a slight decline in total shipments by 0.5% in 2026, despite a 1.6% increase in shipment area in 2025, driven by structural improvements and a shift from scale-driven to value-driven growth [11][15]. - The average TV size has increased to 53.6 inches, with OLED TV shipments growing by 6.9% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards higher-end products [11][12]. - The market is seeing a significant regional disparity, with emerging markets like Latin America, Middle East & Africa, and Asia-Pacific showing growth rates of 5.8%, 3.0%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Chinese market has declined by 8.8% [15]. - TV panel prices have seen a slight increase in early 2026, with demand from top brands rising by 5% in January, although a 7% decline was noted in February due to seasonal factors [17][18]. Market and Sector Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.98%, while the home appliance index rose by 2.11% during the week [22]. - Notable stock performances included Sichuan Changhong (+22.33%), Skyworth Digital (+17.52%), and Ecovacs (+17.40%), while Galaxy Electronics (-6.73%) and *ST Tongzhou (-5.18%) saw declines [22]. Raw Material Prices - Copper prices decreased by 1.13%, while aluminum prices increased by 0.10% during the week of February 2-6, 2026 [28]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have risen by 2.14%, and aluminum prices by 1.98%, indicating fluctuating raw material costs that could impact the industry [28]. Real Estate Data - In December 2025, new residential construction, construction in progress, completions, and sales all showed significant year-on-year declines of -19.9%, -10.4%, -20.3%, and -10.0% respectively, indicating ongoing pressure on the home appliance sector [37][43]. Investment Recommendations - Leading brands are expected to achieve stable growth due to their integrated advantages and strong pricing power. The report recommends TCL Electronics, Hisense Visual, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home as key investment opportunities [53].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging its two major brands, Hars and SIGG, to explore new collaborative paradigms with well-known IPs, creating high-quality products that combine brand value and influence [2]. - The company has established a diverse IP collaboration matrix, partnering with brands such as Coca-Cola and the Palace Museum, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [2]. - The company’s self-branded IP + thermos cup model has been successfully implemented, with plans to expand into more trendy categories in the medium to long term [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 34.5 billion, RMB 43.8 billion, and RMB 53.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of +3.67%, +26.87%, and +21.04% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.44 billion, RMB 2.84 billion, and RMB 3.97 billion for the same years, with a significant rebound in growth rates of -49.65%, +96.84%, and +39.90% [4][9]. - The company anticipates overcoming short-term challenges related to production capacity and supply chain issues by 2025, leading to improved performance in subsequent years [4]. Valuation - The report suggests a 15X PE valuation for the company in 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery and growth in both domestic and overseas markets [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of production, demand, CPI, and PPI. It points out that there are seasonal fluctuations in production, low - base effects affect the real - estate market, and there are price changes in various commodities due to multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical events [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption shows a seasonal decline. On February 3, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 81.4 million tons, a 5.7% decrease from January 27. On January 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 222.0 million tons, a 7.5% decrease from January 22. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and rising temperatures, power plant daily consumption may further decline [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On January 30, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 23, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 89.8% on January 30, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from January 23. Due to the Spring Festival, demand is almost stagnant, but steel mills' production remains relatively high, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [16]. - The tire operating rate remains stable. On January 29, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 74.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from January 22. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has a seasonal decline. On January 29, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.2%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of downstream looms was 42.4%, an 8.8 - percentage - point decrease from January 22 [18]. 3.1.2 Demand: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has a passive increase due to the low - base effect. From February 1 - 3, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 18.7 million square meters, an 181.0% increase from the same period in January, a 1615.3% increase from the same period in February last year, a 32.1% decrease from the same period in February 2024, and a 42.6% decrease from the same period in February 2023. Sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities increased by 4474.6%, 1028.3%, and 2830.0% year - on - year respectively [23]. - The auto market is weakening. In January, retail sales decreased by 28% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 35% year - on - year. The change in the auto trade - in policy has affected consumers' purchasing willingness [27]. - Steel prices are fluctuating weakly. On February 3, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, increased by 1.1%, decreased by 0.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively compared with January 27. Steel inventory is accumulating more slowly than in previous years [33]. - Cement prices are hitting new lows. On February 3, the national cement price index decreased by 0.8% compared with January 27. Cement demand is weak in different regions due to weather and other factors, but the year - on - year decline in prices is narrowing [34]. - Glass prices remain stable. On February 3, the active glass futures contract price was 1073 yuan/ton, the same as on January 27. The month - on - month decline in glass prices has occurred, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing [39]. - The decline in container shipping freight rate indices has further expanded. On January 30, the CCFI index decreased by 2.7% compared with January 23, and the SCFI index decreased by 9.7%. Due to the long holiday in Asian countries during the Spring Festival and reduced expected shipments before the Spring Festival, there is an oversupply of shipping capacity in the short - term, and freight rates are under pressure [42]. 3.2 Inflation: Intensified Fluctuations in Industrial Product Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Turn Downward - Pork prices turn downward. On February 3, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, a 0.5% decrease from January 27. Although it is the pre - festival stocking peak, the short - term support from consumption is limited, and the supply pressure is still large [49]. - The agricultural product price index is fluctuating. On February 3, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with January 27. Different agricultural products have different price trends. Since February, the agricultural product wholesale price index has increased year - on - year and month - on - month [53]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise and Then Fall - Oil prices rise and then fall. On February 3, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 63.2 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.5% and 1.3% increase from January 27. Geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, and short - term volatility will continue [57]. - Copper prices rise while aluminum prices fall. On February 3, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.5% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with January 27. The domestic commodity index has a month - on - month decline [64]. - Industrial product prices have different month - on - month trends. Since February, the prices of wire rod, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial products have decreased, with rebar and cement having relatively large declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices is narrowing [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (KeChuang bonds) has been continuously active. Although the overall demand for KeChuang bonds has continued to recover, the subscription enthusiasm is still lower than that of non - KeChuang credit bonds. The performance of KeChuang bonds is expected to be mainly volatile before the holiday. For accounts with unstable liability ends, it is recommended to give priority to high - quality KeChuang bonds within 3 years as investment targets [2][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2.0% of KeChuang Bonds: How to View 3.1.1 Primary Issuance Scale and Structure - The primary market has continued the strong supply trend since the beginning of the year. The new supply scale in the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, reached 58.96 billion yuan, with the issuance of over - 5 - year varieties in the inter - bank market increasing significantly. The overall demand for new KeChuang bonds has continued to recover, but the subscription enthusiasm is still lower than that of non - KeChuang credit bonds, indicating limited willingness of investors to pay a premium for the "science and technology innovation label" [2][11] 3.1.2 Secondary Trading Activity and Pricing - Rating distribution: The ratings of outstanding KeChuang bonds are highly concentrated. Bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above account for 73.7%, and AA - rated medium - quality individual bonds account for 22.0%, reflecting the financing needs of some small and medium - sized science and technology innovation entities [3][19] - Industry distribution: The industry distribution is dominated by traditional industries. Bonds in the building decoration, public utilities, and comprehensive industries account for 38.9%. There is an excess spread of over 13bp in the textile and apparel, communication, and non - bank financial industries compared to all credit bonds in the same industries [3][19] - Liquidity: In the past two weeks, the weekly trading volume of KeChuang bonds has returned to over a thousand transactions, and the turnover rate in the latest week has risen to 2.17%, higher than that of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [3][26] - Yield: Due to the marginal slowdown of the net outflow pressure of KeChuang bond ETF funds and the warming of the bond market sentiment, the market of KeChuang bonds has been supported. This week, high - grade medium - and short - term KeChuang bonds have performed well. The average yields of 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year exchange - listed AAA KeChuang bonds have decreased by 6.3bp and 7.5bp respectively [3][31] - Internal price comparison of KeChuang bond varieties: Recently, the spread between the constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds of the KeChuang bond index has remained above 20bp, and the spread between inter - bank varieties and constituent bonds has widened to 10.1bp. For the 1 - 3 - year segment, there is still 18bp of compression space between inter - bank varieties and index constituent bonds [3][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $10.27 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a GAAP net profit of $1.511 billion, up 213% year-on-year [2]. - The data center business remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $5.38 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates continued growth in this segment, projecting a revenue growth rate exceeding 60% over the next 3-5 years [3]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be around $9.8 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year increase but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to seasonal factors in consumer electronics [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Review - For Q4 2025, the company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 54% and a Non-GAAP gross margin of 57%. The Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was $2.519 billion, a 42% increase year-on-year [2]. Business Analysis - The company forecasts that both data center GPU and CPU revenues will grow quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by strong demand for data center CPUs. The company also expects significant revenue from the MI400 series products in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The company is optimistic about the CPU market, anticipating high double-digit growth in 2026, driven by the demand for high-performance CPUs for AI workloads [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve GAAP net profits of $7.715 billion, $10.970 billion, and $14.377 billion for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $10.27 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a GAAP net profit of $1.511 billion, up 213% year-on-year [2]. - The data center business remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $5.38 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates continued growth in this segment, projecting a revenue growth rate exceeding 60% over the next 3-5 years [3]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be around $9.8 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year increase but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to seasonal factors in consumer electronics [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Review - For Q4 2025, the company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 54% and a Non-GAAP gross margin of 57%. The Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was $2.519 billion, a 42% increase year-on-year [2]. Business Analysis - The company forecasts that both data center GPU and CPU revenues will grow quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by strong demand for data center CPUs. The company is optimistic about the CPU market, expecting high double-digit growth in 2026 [3]. - The company anticipates significant revenue from the MI400 series products in the second half of 2026, with the MI500 series expected to launch in 2027 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve GAAP net profits of $7.715 billion in 2026, $10.970 billion in 2027, and $14.377 billion in 2028, reflecting substantial growth rates [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, particularly in AI and cloud computing, with significant capital expenditures from major players like Meta, Microsoft, and Alibaba [6][31]. Core Insights - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures to enhance AI capabilities, with Meta's projected spending reaching between $115 billion and $135 billion for the year [5][31]. - AI demand remains strong, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic accelerating their growth and preparing for IPOs, indicating a robust market for AI applications [4][11]. - The report highlights a shift in pricing strategies among cloud service providers, with Google Cloud and Amazon AWS raising prices for data transmission and machine learning services, marking a departure from the long-standing trend of price reductions [20][21]. Industry Frontiers - OpenAI has raised over $100 billion in funding, with a valuation of $830 billion, and is preparing for an IPO in Q4 2026 [4][11]. - Anthropic has revised its revenue projections, expecting a threefold increase in sales this year, potentially reaching $18 billion, and over $55 billion next year [11][12]. - ByteDance is set to release a new AI model in mid-February, aiming to capture a larger share of the AI market in China [12][27]. Capital Trends - Google Cloud announced a price increase for global data transmission services effective May 2026, with Amazon AWS also raising prices for its machine learning services by approximately 15% [5][20]. - Meta has secured a $6 billion long-term supply agreement with Corning for fiber optic cables, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure in AI development [21]. - Alibaba is considering increasing its investment in AI infrastructure and cloud computing from 380 billion to 480 billion yuan over the next three years [25][26]. Weekly Perspectives - The report notes that AI investments are yielding positive results for companies like Meta, with improved user engagement and advertising performance [31][32]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to surge, driven by the increasing need for advanced computing capabilities [32]. - The report anticipates a significant growth in the number of ASIC chips required for AI applications, projecting a boom in demand from 2026 to 2027 [32]. Industry Chain Data Updates - In December, China's smartphone market saw a significant decline in sales, with Huawei maintaining the largest market share [34]. - The PC market experienced a mixed performance, with desktop sales increasing while laptop sales declined [35].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not available in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold and silver market will become more volatile due to factors such as the frequency of global black - swan events, rising US re - inflation pressure, and the rapid transmission of AI's generalized cost [2][4] - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver is mainly due to large - scale profit - taking after long - term sharp rises, and their pricing is influenced by liquidity, AI narrative, and cryptocurrency funds [7][11] - Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair doesn't change the dovish policy expectation, and the Fed's decision on interest rates depends more on economic performance and Trump's political will [14] - The US stock market is under pressure of intensified K - shaped differentiation, facing risks from fiscal policy, price increases in production materials, and the sustainability of the AI narrative [29] Summary by Relevant Sections I. The Turbulent Gold and Silver Market - The recent sharp decline of gold and silver has no essential causal relationship with Warsh's nomination but is mainly due to profit - taking after sharp rises. In 2025 and 2026, the upward cycle of gold was compressed, leading to a subsequent sharp correction [7] - Gold and silver show obvious "MEME - like" features, with their prices driven by liquidity, AI narrative, and influenced by cryptocurrency funds. Silver is more volatile than gold [11] - The current market's upward momentum is related to the strength of the AI trend. Gold, silver, and the US stock market are boosted by the AI narrative, while cryptocurrencies are under pressure [13] II. Kevin Warsh's Nomination: A Two - way Attraction between Speculation and Pragmatism - Warsh's nomination doesn't change the dovish policy expectation. The Fed's interest - rate decision depends on economic performance and Trump's political will. Trump wants a controllable Fed Chair to address the "affordability problem" [14] - It's uncertain how much of Warsh's "interest - rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" is based on his true judgment of the macro - economy, considering his past inaccurate inflation and policy stances [21] - Warsh's balance - sheet reduction proposal faces "objective" constraints. From a quantitative and qualitative perspective, the current US dollar liquidity is only slightly above the sufficient level, and excessive balance - sheet reduction may lead to a repeat of the 2019 repo crisis [24] - For the Trump administration, an interest - rate cut is urgent, while balance - sheet reduction is an idealized long - term goal [28] III. The US Stock Market under Pressure of Intensified K - shaped Differentiation - The sharp decline in gold and silver warns assets relying on liquidity and the AI narrative. The US stock market is facing intensified K - shaped differentiation, with the lower end of the "K" being more vulnerable [29] - During the earnings season, the performance of US stocks varies. Investors' focus has shifted to liquidity. The Fed is likely to ensure stock - market stability and provide sufficient liquidity for the AI narrative [29] - Fiscal risks, such as the potential government shutdown due to political conflicts over immigration regulation, are destabilizing factors for the US stock market. Price increases in production materials like electricity and storage chips may lead to re - inflation and squeeze corporate profits [29][30] - The continuation of the AI narrative depends on continuous monetary and fiscal support and the absence of a significant economic recession. The economic "K - shaped" gap is widening, as shown by the profit growth of AI - related industries and the increasing corporate layoffs [31] - The future of the US stock market depends on Warsh's ability to balance inflation and political expansion needs after taking office in June. If fiscal risks and inflation rebound resonate, the current calm in the US stock market may be broken [35]