Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the wind energy sector, including Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy, based on their competitive advantages and expected market share growth [9][12]. Core Insights - The report outlines China's strategic tasks in the energy sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing a green transition driven by dual carbon goals, including specific measures such as carbon emission control, industrial decarbonization, and the development of renewable energy [6][13]. - The wind energy sector is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with a target of no less than 120GW of new installations annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including at least 15GW from offshore wind [7][5]. - Hydrogen energy has been recognized as a key future industry, with strong policy support anticipated to accelerate its industrialization and commercialization, positioning it as a new growth driver [13][15]. Wind Energy - The "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0" has revised the market's expectations for wind power installations, indicating a slowdown in the trend of larger wind turbines, with a focus on products that meet market demands for power trading [7][8]. - Goldwind's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 25.4% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 170.6% [9]. - The competitive landscape in the wind turbine sector is expected to undergo a "value reshaping" as companies adapt to market conditions and enhance product offerings [7][8]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Hydrogen energy has been elevated to a national strategic level, with policies expected to support its rapid development and integration into various sectors [13][15]. - The report highlights the acceleration of green hydrogen projects and the rising demand for fuel cell vehicles, indicating a significant market opportunity [14][15]. - The establishment of a complete commercial model for green hydrogen in shipping is seen as a breakthrough that could lead to broader applications in other industries [15][16]. Photovoltaics and Energy Storage - The introduction of new measures in Henan Province is expected to enhance the profitability of independent energy storage projects, confirming the report's previous assertions about the growing demand for large-scale energy storage [17][18]. - The export of photovoltaic components remains strong, with a notable increase in shipments to emerging markets, indicating sustained demand [19][20]. - The report suggests a bottom-up investment approach in the solar and storage sectors, focusing on leading companies and innovative technologies [20]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a surge in demand, with some negative electrode manufacturers raising prices due to increased production capacity utilization [21][24]. - A significant breakthrough in solid-state battery technology has been achieved by XINWANDA, with a new polymer solid-state battery reaching an energy density of 400Wh/kg [26][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly for enhancing sustainability and competitive advantage [22].

警报阶段性解除 我们此前在报告中提出，"双节"后中美市场回调背后有着更深层次的原因：全球金融资产扩张了到历史高位（突破 均值＋两倍标准差），这一金融泡沫在此前美国服务业滑坡的经济状态下较为脆弱，一旦遭遇突发风险时市场容易回 调。而本周，这一深层次原因和两个风险因素都有所缓解：（1）本周六标普全球 PMI 公布美国 10 月服务业 PMI 初值 和制造业 PMI 初值均超预期且高于 50 荣枯线，缓解了对衰退的担忧；（2）市场对美国区域性银行坏账的担忧缓解， 从美国高收益债券的信用利差来看，本次事件导致的向上变动幅度远远小于 2020 年以来几次信用危机时期水平，并 且信用利差已经在本周下跌至接近事件发生前的低位水平；（3）中美贸易谈判也不断在释放良好信号，本周末中美谈 判代表团将在马来西亚开启新一轮的贸易磋商，两国领导人将在月底的韩国 APEC 峰会上会面。 风格再均衡的信号 本周，过去两周回调较多的领域获得修复，尤其是 TMT 板块，但其内部的交易逻辑已经有明显的扩散和切换：不再是 受到海外 AI 基础设施建设拉动的板块（光模块、PCB）一枝独秀，而是扩散到国产算力（GPU）、软硬件自主可控（半 导体设备、 ...

本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比仍为 15% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量仍为 3 个（占比 15%）、位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 4 个（占比 20%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 13 个（占比 65%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 国债换手率由偏冷区间 升至过热区间；基金-农商买入量则由过热区间降至偏冷区间。 交易热度分位均值大幅上升 ①交易热度中，30/10Y 国债换手率、1/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别大幅回升 24、86 个百分点，TL/T 多空比分位值也 上升 13 个百分点，带动交易热度分位均值上升 21 个百分点。②基金分歧度、基金-农商买入量分位值分别下降 14、 10 个百分点，机构行为分位均值回落 2 个百分点。③市场利差上升 8 个百分点、政策利差下降 5 个百分点，利差分位 均值小幅回升 1 个百分点。④股债、不动产比价分位值均下降 10 个百分点，比价分位均值回落 5 个百分点。 本期微观交易温度计读数回升至 34% 本期 1Y、30Y 国债换手率上升，10Y 国债换手率下降，因此 30/10Y 国债换手率、1/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别大幅回 ...

一、银行次级新债的微妙线索 在税前收益相同的假设下，增值税新规会使同一品种新老券税后收益产生分化。要使剩余期限相近、同一主体发行的 新老券税后收益相同，则新券票息应在老券之上，通过超额发行利率补偿税收成本。对于一般金融机构适用的税率， 如果税收成本完全由发行人承担，则新老券税前收益之比应在 1.068 附近，对于资管机构（包括公募基金）适用的税 率，这一比值为 1.034。 8 月 8 日后，大行新发的二永债共 3 只，分别是 25 农行二级资本债 03A(BC)、25 农行二级资本债 03B(BC)和 25 中 行永续债 02BC，三只债券票面与发行当日估值之差达到 7.35bp、16.55bp、0.01bp，其中，5+5 年、10+5 年二级资 本债新券票面与估值之比为 1.035、1.071。 10+5 年大行二级债发行利率中包含更多税收成本补偿。从净卖出占比数据看，认购结束后银行自营能够稳定持有部 分 5 年二级资本债，但对 10 年品种倾向于卖出，这意味着，主要买盘对 10 年品种的认购力度可能更弱，此时，新券 的税收成本将更多由发行人承担。因此，10 年二级资本债新券定价与估值之比更接近一般金融机 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery equipment sector, with specific recommendations for stocks such as XCMG, Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and YTO Group [10]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment index rose by 4.71% in the last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 3.24% [13][15]. - Year-to-date, the machinery equipment index has increased by 35.02%, ranking fifth among 31 primary industry categories [15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in engineering machinery exports, with a total of $43.855 billion from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [4][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth in quantum computing and controllable nuclear fusion as new economic growth points, supported by top-level policy and funding [4][23]. - Tesla's humanoid robot production plans are seen as a strategic opportunity for the robotics sector, with expectations for significant commercialization by 2026 [4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 4.71% last week, ranking fourth among 31 primary industry categories [13][15]. - Year-to-date performance shows a 35.02% increase in the SW Machinery Equipment Index, compared to an 18.44% increase in the CSI 300 Index [15]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8% in September, indicating contraction [22]. - Forklift sales in September reached 130,380 units, a year-on-year increase of 23% [22]. Engineering Machinery - In September, total excavator sales reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with both domestic and international sales showing strong growth [31]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment in railways maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [42]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is seeing a slowdown in price declines, with the global new ship price index at 185.58 as of September 2025 [44]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with an increase in global rig counts and expected growth in oil and gas extraction demand [46]. Industrial Gases - A decrease in raw material prices is expected to improve profitability in the steel sector, which may boost demand for industrial gases [50]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders in the first three quarters of 2025 [52].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产、港股物业均上涨。本周（10.18-10.24）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.5%，在各板 块中位列第 18；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.2%，在各板块中位列第 8。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为 +2.2%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+3.9%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+3.2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相对收益分别为-1.7%和-1%。 土地市场溢价率处于低位。本周（10.18-10.24）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 1521 万㎡，单周环比 52%，单周同比 -14%，平均溢价率 4%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 33812 万㎡，累计同比-9.9%；年初至今，中海 地产、绿城中国、保利发展、建发房产、招商蛇口的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(10.18-10.24)47 个城市商品房销售 429 万方，成交量环比+4%，同比-13%，整体处于季节性低位；9 月新房 售价环比-0.4%，环比跌幅略有扩大，同比-2.7%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看： 一线城市周环比+10%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 18.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.79 billion yuan, up 84.3% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue for Q3 was 6.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.55 billion yuan, growing 45.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing strong sales growth in electric two-wheelers, toC scooters, and all-terrain vehicles, with electric two-wheeler sales reaching 1.487 million units and revenue of 4.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.8% [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company achieved a revenue of 18.39 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth rates of 68.6% and 84.3% respectively [2]. - Q3 results showed revenue of 6.65 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.8% and 45.9% [2]. Operational Analysis - Revenue growth exceeded expectations, while profit growth was in line with expectations. The slower profit growth was attributed to seasonal demand fluctuations and foreign exchange losses [3]. - The company expanded its store network significantly, with over 9,700 stores for electric two-wheelers in China as of September 30, 2025, and an 18% increase in store efficiency [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to see substantial growth in its electric two-wheeler and robotic lawnmower businesses, with revenue projections of 21.7 billion yuan, 27.3 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 2.1 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan, and 3.5 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 90%, 31%, and 29% respectively [4].

业绩简评 2025 年 10 月 24 日，公司披露 2025 年度第三季度业绩：公司 2025 年第三季度实现营收 2.17 亿元，同比增长 12.7%，毛利润 为 1.91 亿元，同比增长 10.7%；实现扣非后归母净利润 0.41 亿 元，同比增长 68.3%。第三季度销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金 为 2.67 亿元，同比增长 17.3%，快于同期营收增速。2025 年第 三季度末合同负债为2.14亿元，环比2025年第二季度末增长0.44 亿元。 经营分析 移动智能终端视觉解决方案 2025 年第三季度营收为 1.7 亿元，同 比增长 12.9%。智能超域融合产品已完成从旗舰机型至中端机型 的全面覆盖，也在部分中低端机型上实现了规模化落地。智能汽车 及其他 AIoT 2025 年第三季度营收为 0.4 亿元，同比增长 10.3%， ADAS 产品不仅支持 L2 级 ADAS 辅助驾驶，还通过与 APA 系统 的深度融合，实现全场景智能行车和泊车功能。公司还依托高通 Snapdragon Ride 平台与舱驾融合平台构建了行泊一体，视觉感 知的辅助驾驶系统解决方案。AIOT 方面，AI 眼镜已成功助力多 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the utility and environmental protection industry, highlighting a 4.5% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in September, with resilience in industrial and commercial electricity demand [1][4]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% and the ChiNext Index increased by 8.05% during the week of October 20-24. The coal sector rose by 1.74%, utilities by 1.02%, environmental protection by 1.75%, and carbon neutrality by 2.44% [1][12]. Industry Outlook Thermal Power - The report suggests focusing on thermal power companies with assets in regions where electricity supply is tight and competition is favorable, such as Sheneng Co. and Huadian International [4]. - Coal prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from abnormal weather and regulatory checks, with a notable increase post-National Day [31]. - Electricity consumption in September showed a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, with industrial sectors growing at 7.3%, 5.7%, and 6.3% respectively [31]. Hydropower - The report recommends focusing on leading hydropower operators like Yangtze Power, as the sector benefits from stable electricity prices and regional supply-demand dynamics [4][32]. - Significant increases in inflow to major hydropower stations were noted, with a 80%+ year-on-year growth in inflow to the Three Gorges and Xiluodu reservoirs [32]. Nuclear Power - The report highlights the potential of China National Nuclear Power, as the market for electricity pricing becomes more favorable [4][32]. - The nuclear power sector is expected to stabilize, with new units coming online and electricity prices remaining steady [32]. Renewable Energy - The report suggests focusing on leading new energy companies like Longyuan Power, as the wind and solar sectors are expected to see stable growth despite recent slowdowns in installation rates [4][33]. Industry Data Tracking Coal Prices - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the European ARA coal price was $91.60/ton, up 1.66%, while Newcastle coal was $103.60/ton, down 0.48% [35]. - Domestic coal prices also saw increases, with the price at Guanzhou Port for Indonesian coal at 769.61 RMB/ton, up 1.27% [35]. Natural Gas Prices - The report notes that the ICE UK natural gas price rose to 81.31 pence/therm, a 1.71% increase, while the Henry Hub price was $3.33/million BTU, up 10.63% [51]. Carbon Market - The national carbon market's carbon emission allowance price was reported at 54.70 RMB/ton, reflecting a 4.77% increase [58]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power companies with strong asset positioning, hydropower operators benefiting from stable pricing, and nuclear power companies with growth potential [4][65].

业绩简评 2025 年 10 月 24 日，公司披露 2025 年三季报，前三季度公司实现 营收 75.0 亿元，同比增长 11.9%，实现归母净利润 9.14 亿元，同 比下降 1.95%；其中 Q3 实现营收 30.7 亿元，同比增长 16.6%，环 比增长 34.2%，实现归母净利润 4.41 亿元，同比增长 53.1%，环 比增长 129.6%。 经营分析 海缆交付环比加速，Q3 业绩拐点确立：前三季度海底电缆与高压 电缆实现收入 35.5 亿元，同比增长 35.8%，其中 Q3 收入 15.9 亿 元，环比增长 109.2%，海缆交付确收节奏较上半年明显加速。截 至报告期末，公司合同负债（预收货款）15.7亿元，同比增长83.1%， 存货规模 36.3 亿元，同比增长 105%，环比 Q2 末增长 16.4%。公 司重点项目如青洲五七、帆石一、山东半岛北 L、英国 Inch Cape 等均已陆续进入交付、安装敷设阶段，有望带动业绩弹性持续释 放。其他业务方面，Q3 电力工程与装备线缆业务实现收入 13.4 亿 元，环比增长 2.2%；海洋装备与工程运维约 0.78 亿元，环比下降 62.9%。 在手 ...