策略 | 2025 年 3 月 14 日 建银国际证券|研究部 "美国例外论"走下神坛 美股支撑因素发生深刻变化，短期或迎来技术性修复，长期走势仍存不确定性 2024 年，美股市场表现强劲，全年涨幅超过 23%，标普 500 指数屡创新高，受益于经济韧性、科技行业 高速增长、流动性改善及全球资本持续流入，"美国例外论"广受市场青睐。 然而，进入 2025 年，市场交易逻辑发生显著变化，整体上涨动能趋缓。 2025 年 2-3 月，美股经历了一轮深度回调，表面上看，这一回调与 2024 年 7-8 月的调整类似，属于"衰 退交易"，然而，如果将 2025 的回调视为 2024 年回调的镜像，则显然忽视了两者的深刻差别。 此次回调的本质，反映出支撑 2025 年初美股的关键因素正在发生深层次转变。2024 年美股的上涨逻辑建 立在稳健的经济增长、科技行业的高成长性、宽松的货币环境以及全球资本持续流入的基础之上。然而， 2025 年市场逻辑发生重大变化： 短期展望：未来几个月，美股短期内可能在 5500 点附近震荡，并出现技术性反弹。然而，由于市场信心 尚未恢复，预计反弹力度有限。投资者需关注以下因素： 全年展望与 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to CR Beverage, with a target price of HKD 17.50, indicating an expected return above 10% over the next 12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - CR Beverage is expected to benefit from a dual-driven revenue growth strategy focusing on national expansion and market penetration, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% for its packaged water segment from FY24 to FY26 [1][9]. - The company plans to enhance its gross margin from 44.7% in FY23 to 49.0% in FY26 by increasing its self-production ratio from approximately 50% in 1H24 to 70% in FY26, supported by a planned investment of 4.3 billion RMB in capacity construction [2][9]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.8% from FY24 to FY26, driven by the expansion of self-production facilities and a strong brand presence [2][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 12,623 in 2022 to 16,443 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 7.1%, 5.3%, 7.0%, and 8.1% respectively [3]. - Net profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 990 in 2022 to 2,067 in 2026, with growth rates of 15.3%, 34.3%, 22.3%, 16.3%, and 9.3% [3]. - Diluted earnings per share (in RMB) are forecasted to rise from 0.49 in 2022 to 0.86 in 2026, reflecting similar growth trends [3]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.3 in 2022 to 14.4 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3]. - The expected dividend per share (in HKD) is set to increase from 0 in 2023 to 0.28 in 2026, with corresponding yields rising from 1.6% to 2.1% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - CR Beverage holds an 18.4% market share in China's packaged water market, ranking second, with significant growth potential in northern and central-western regions [1]. - The company aims to deepen its market penetration in lower-tier cities and enhance retail network coverage, which is expected to drive market share growth [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering with a target price of HKD 14.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 53% from the current price of HKD 9.11 [5][9]. Core Insights - CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering is positioned to enter a profit explosion period due to the shipbuilding industry's cyclical recovery, rising new ship prices, and a strong order backlog of RMB 60 billion, with projected net profits of RMB 800 million and RMB 1.15 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][2]. - The company benefits from a robust order book, with subsidiaries holding around 4 million deadweight tons of orders sufficient to meet demand until 2028, supported by China's cost advantages and currency strength [2][9]. - The stock price has seen a significant correction since Q4 2024 due to issues related to the parent company's restructuring, but the fundamentals remain strong, and the report anticipates a recovery in stock price as earnings improve [2][9]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering are as follows: RMB 12.8 billion in 2022, RMB 16.1 billion in 2023, RMB 21.2 billion in 2024, RMB 24.8 billion in 2025, and RMB 28.1 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.9% from 2025 to 2026 [3]. - Net profit forecasts show a dramatic increase from RMB 688 million in 2022 to RMB 1.15 billion in 2026, with a notable recovery from a low of RMB 48 million in 2023 [3]. - The report suggests a price-to-book ratio of 1.0 times for valuation, aligning with historical trends from 2001 to 2010, and indicates that the stock is currently undervalued [2][9].

Investment Strategy - The report asserts that it is too early to declare a recession in the US, but the combination of escalating trade tensions and slowing economic growth is increasing market uncertainty [1][17] - The upcoming congressional address by President Trump is expected to outline key policy focuses for the next four years, potentially marking a new political watershed [1][2] Recent Tariff Escalation - In early March, the Trump administration significantly escalated tariff policies, including a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the total tariff rate on some products to 20% [12][21] - The administration's tariff policies are seen as a response to high trade deficits, particularly with China, and are aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing [8][11] Economic and Tariff Policy - The Trump administration is pursuing a "tariff for tax reduction" strategy, using increased import tariffs to fill budget deficits while continuing the large-scale tax cuts initiated in 2017 [11] - Economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI and retail sales data suggest a potential slowdown in the US economy, prompting the need for stronger trade protection measures [7][19] Political Considerations - Internal political pressure and considerations for the 2026 midterm elections are influencing the administration's trade policies, with a focus on solidifying support from trade protectionist lawmakers [9][13] - The administration's hardline stance on immigration and border control is also a significant aspect of its policy agenda, facing strong opposition from Democrats [11] Market Dynamics - Recent market sentiment has been negatively impacted by increased uncertainty surrounding trade policies and weak macroeconomic data, leading to concerns about potential stagflation in the US economy [14][19] - The VIX index, known as the fear index, has risen by 30% as of March 4, 2025, reflecting heightened market anxiety [19] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to closely monitor the Trump administration's trade policy updates and signals from China's National People's Congress to assess potential impacts on global markets [16][20] - The combination of escalating trade tensions and economic slowdown is likely to keep investor sentiment cautious, with risk assets facing downward pressure in the short term [17][20]

Economic Growth and Targets - The 2025 growth target is set at approximately 5%, consistent with previous expectations and aligned with the long-term goal of doubling economic output by 2035[10][4] - The urban employment target is set at over 12 million new jobs, with an urban unemployment rate target of around 5.5%[10][16] - The inflation target has been slightly lowered to around 2%, down from 3% last year, reflecting a focus on price stability[11][10] Fiscal Policy - The budget deficit is set at 4% of GDP, marking a historic high, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, and total public budget expenditure of 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year[10][12] - Local government special bond issuance is increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan from last year, to support infrastructure and other projects[10][12] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, aimed at supporting consumption upgrades[10][12] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a projected 25 basis points RRR cut and a 10 basis points interest rate cut in Q2 2025[5][13] - The focus will be on maintaining liquidity and ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations[10][5] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The government emphasizes comprehensive measures to stimulate domestic demand, including consumption subsidies, enhancing employment, and improving social security[6][10] - Central budget investment is planned at 735 billion yuan, an increase of 35 billion yuan from last year, to support effective investment and consumption[14][10] Risk Prevention - Risk prevention remains a priority, particularly in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions, with measures to mitigate these risks being emphasized[13][10] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt effectively while promoting sustainable development[10][19]

Economic Overview - US inflation data for January exceeded expectations, delaying the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with predictions of two cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025[5][6] - Concerns about a recession have led to a rapid decline in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield expected to fluctuate between 4.0% and 4.5% in March[5][8] Domestic Consumption and Recovery - Chinese New Year consumption showed a robust recovery, with tourism spending increasing by 5.9% in visitor numbers and 7.0% in total expenditure compared to the previous year[21] - Industrial production resumed quickly post-holiday, with significant recovery in secondhand home sales, which rose approximately 18.4% year-on-year in January[22] Policy Focus and Economic Growth - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to emphasize domestic demand, technological innovation, and industrial upgrades, maintaining a growth target of around 5% for 2025[21][23] - Fiscal spending is anticipated to accelerate, with a projected effective budget deficit rate increasing to 5.6% of GDP[23] Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - Continuous capital inflows into emerging markets, with over $10 billion net inflow into Chinese stocks and bonds in January, marking the first simultaneous inflow into both markets since August 2024[9] - Political risks between the US and China may still impact capital inflows, despite the positive economic outlook in China[9]

Core Insights - DeepSeek, an AI startup based in Hangzhou, has released its new reinforcement learning model, DeepSeek R1, which nearly matches the performance of leading AI models while significantly reducing costs, raising concerns about the necessity for large-scale computing power and funding investments [1] - The report highlights a focus on domestic computing stocks, recommending companies such as SMIC, Northern Huachuang, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these firms [2] - The global AI development is expected to accelerate, with edge AI and applications becoming the next competitive focal point, as demonstrated by DeepSeek's success in utilizing reinforcement learning and MoE (Mixture of Experts) technology [3] Summary by Sections Technology Sector Overview - DeepSeek's R1 model showcases exceptional performance in mathematics, coding, and natural language reasoning, with training costs estimated at only 8-9% of leading models like Llama 3 and GPT-4 [1] - The report notes that the training process for DeepSeek's V3 model required approximately 2.8 million GPU hours, costing around $5.6 million, which is significantly lower than competitors [5] Competitive Landscape - The competition between open-source and closed-source AI models is intensifying, with DeepSeek being an open-source model that allows users to view and edit its code, contrasting with closed-source models like GPT, which require licenses and are more expensive [4] - The performance of DeepSeek R1 is nearly on par with leading closed-source models, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4] Market Trends - The demand for training computing power is expected to cool in the short term, although the overall need for high-performance GPUs and related components will continue to grow due to ongoing AI advancements [5] - The report emphasizes the narrowing technology gap between the US and China in AI development, with Chinese companies leveraging existing computing capabilities and data advantages to launch competitive models [6] Emerging Technologies - Multi-modal AI, which can process various data types simultaneously, is gaining traction, with applications in healthcare, manufacturing, and AR/VR [7][8] - AI Agents, capable of independent decision-making and interaction, are highlighted as having significant potential across various sectors, including robotics and customer service [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price raised from HKD 13.00 to HKD 14.00 [6][3][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a core profit growth of 6.8% for 2024, exceeding expectations by 7%, and maintained a stable dividend of HKD 0.81 per share, resulting in a total dividend of HKD 1.08 for the year [1][3]. - Total revenue for 2024 increased by 6.2% to HKD 34.09 billion, supported by a 9.8% growth in retail rental income due to the opening of newly renovated luxury brand flagship stores [1][2]. - The company’s financing costs decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, primarily due to exchange gains from the depreciation of the Renminbi, which offset the increase in total debt and weighted average interest rates [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, total revenue is projected at HKD 34.09 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to reach HKD 1.96 billion, reflecting a 6.8% increase compared to the previous year [4][11]. - The company’s net debt increased by 2% in the second half of 2024, reaching HKD 24.30 billion, resulting in a net gearing ratio of 51.1% [1][3]. Future Outlook - The management highlighted the success of transformation initiatives, including the optimization of shopping mall operations and the opening of over 10 new luxury brand flagship stores, which are expected to enhance rental income [2][3]. - The company plans to complete the expansion of the Lee Garden Phase 8 by 2026, which is anticipated to increase the total area of the Lee Garden district by 30% [2][3]. - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted upward by 7.7%-9.5% to reflect the anticipated higher income from the company's renewal initiatives [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of HK$18.00, while the current price is HK$15.28 [5][23]. Core Insights - The company's performance for 2024 is expected to be weak, with core earnings projected to decline by 10% to HK$6.5 billion, primarily due to a sluggish office market, stagnant retail sector, and high interest costs [1][2]. - Earnings are anticipated to stabilize in 2025 and slightly recover in 2026, influenced by factors such as declining rental income from mainland malls and the absence of contributions from new projects [2][11]. - Despite challenges, the company is expected to fulfill its dividend growth commitment, with a projected increase of 2.9% for the full year 2024 [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to decrease from HK$14.67 billion in 2023 to HK$13.89 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.3% [3][11]. - The company’s core profit is expected to drop from HK$7.29 billion in 2023 to HK$6.54 billion in 2024, a decrease of 10.2% [3][11]. - The projected basic earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is HK$1.12, down from HK$1.25 in 2023 [3][11]. - The dividend per share is expected to increase from HK$1.05 in 2023 to HK$1.08 in 2024, reflecting a dividend yield of 7.1% to 7.5% over the forecast period [3][11]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that the retail sales in Hong Kong continue to be affected by local tourism loss and changing consumer spending patterns, while the office rental market remains weak [1][2]. - The company’s properties in mainland China are also experiencing a decline in rental income due to consumer downgrading [2][19]. Share Buyback Program - The company has made progress on its HK$1.5 billion share buyback program, having repurchased 28.2 million shares, which is approximately 29% of the total program [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price revised down from HK$17.50 to HK$15.00 [5][9][12]. Core Insights - The company's core profit is expected to decline significantly from RMB 11.35 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.90 billion in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in sales and profit margins, alongside impairment losses [1][11]. - The report highlights that recurring income will support the company's performance in 2024, with a projected growth of 7.4% to RMB 26.7 billion, driven by rental and service income [1][9]. - The company is transitioning towards becoming a rental stock, with expectations that its profitability and financing will continue to be impacted by its real estate development business during 2025-2026 [2][9]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 180.74 billion in 2023 to RMB 120.24 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 33.5% [3][10]. - Gross contracted sales are expected to drop from RMB 173.49 billion in 2023 to RMB 101.12 billion in 2024, a decline of 41.7% [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decrease from 16.9% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2024, reflecting the impact of high land costs and falling property prices [1][10]. Debt and Financing - The company plans to use its land investment budget for deleveraging, aiming to repay approximately 10% of its total debt in 2024 [2][9]. - The report notes that the company has a significant amount of debt maturing in 2025, including RMB 10 billion in bonds and RMB 9.2 billion in syndicated loans [2][9]. Dividend Policy - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, despite the anticipated decline in core profits [1][2].