司 跟踪报 售 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SFC：AXK331 ＃su我mm们a的ry观＃点：天能动力稳居铅蓄电池龙头，有全国 40 多万家终端门店网络布局，业绩基本盘稳固； 当前股息率已具备吸引力；且后续资本开支有望回落，在铅酸业务强劲现金流带动下，公司整体 现金流有望进一步改善，为回馈投资者腾挪空间。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为 19.81、22.30、23.85 亿元，分别同比+8.7%、+12.5%、+7.0%；截至 2024 年 9 月 12 日收盘，公司 股价对应 2024-2026 年 PE 各为 3.5x、3.1x、2.9x，对应 PB 各为 0.4x、0.4x、0.3x；我们维持公司 "增持"评级，建议投资者关注。 2024H1 业绩维持稳健：1）营收：2024H1，公司营收同比+20.4%至 499.1 亿元，其中制造业务、 贸易业务收入各为 212.1、287.0 亿元，分别同比-2.0%、+44.8%。从制造业务内部来看，2024H1 铅酸电池、回收业务、锂电池收入各为 192.5、15.5、1.8 亿元，分别同比-0.3%、-9.8%、-50. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Tianqi Lithium is a leading player in the upstream integrated lithium salt industry, focusing on strengthening upstream operations, enhancing midstream capabilities, and penetrating downstream markets. The company faced significant losses in H1 2024 due to high-priced inventory and substantial tax provisions from its associate SQM. However, as high-priced inventory is gradually consumed and new low-cost lithium concentrate is added, the company's performance is expected to improve in H2 2024. Long-term, the company benefits from the low-cost equity mine advantage of Talison, positioning it among the top in profitability within the industry. The report maintains the "Add" rating and encourages investors to pay attention [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 74.2% year-on-year to 6.4 billion yuan, with lithium salt revenue down 56.3% to 3.83 billion yuan and lithium concentrate revenue down 84.0% to 2.57 billion yuan. The production of lithium concentrate from the Talison mine, in which Tianqi holds a 26.01% stake, saw a year-on-year decline of 18% in output to 612,000 tons and a 7% decline in sales volume to 713,000 tons, with an average selling price down 82% to 1,024 USD/ton [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was -5.2 billion yuan, a sharp decline compared to 6.45 billion yuan in H1 2023 and 830 million yuan in H2 2023. The losses were attributed to falling lithium prices and high-priced inventory, alongside a net loss of 1.14 billion yuan from SQM due to price declines in lithium and fertilizer products [1][2]. - The company’s lithium resource advantage is highlighted, with all lithium concentrate used for lithium salt production sourced from Talison. The report notes ongoing development of the Yajiang Cuola mine and investments in SQM's Atacama and Zhabuye salt lakes [1]. Production Capacity and Expansion - As of the end of H1 2024, Tianqi Lithium's annual lithium salt production capacity was 88,600 tons, with plans for further expansion including 24,000 tons from the second phase of the Kwinana lithium hydroxide project and 30,000 tons from Zhangjiagang [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategy to deepen cooperation with downstream industries through investments in new energy materials, power batteries, solid-state batteries, and electric vehicles [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 10.28 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.506 billion RMB, up 30.56% [3]. - The rail transit equipment business generated revenue of 6.139 billion RMB, growing by 30.87%, while the emerging equipment business saw revenue of 4.094 billion RMB, an increase of 9.21% [3]. - The company is accelerating the overhaul of high-speed trains, with a record number of tenders for major repairs, indicating strong future growth potential [3]. - New production capacity for power semiconductors is expected to come online in the second half of 2024, enhancing the company's capabilities in this sector [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 26.148 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 19.9%, and a net profit of 3.702 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 19.2% [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 33.5% for 2024, with earnings per share projected at 2.61 RMB [4][7]. - The company's total assets are forecasted to grow from 53.405 billion RMB in 2023 to 77.158 billion RMB by 2026, indicating a strong asset base [6][7]. Business Growth Drivers - The increasing passenger traffic in China's railways and the growing fleet of high-speed trains provide a solid foundation for future maintenance and repair services [3]. - The planned elimination of old diesel locomotives by 2027 is anticipated to drive further growth in railway equipment [3]. - The company’s semiconductor subsidiary reported a revenue of 2.048 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, with a net profit margin reaching a record high [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market indices [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately 546.74 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 80.20 billion yuan, up 5.29% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue structure is continuously optimized, with a focus on digital transformation as a second growth curve, achieving a 11% increase in digital transformation revenue to 147.1 billion yuan [1]. - The company has adjusted its depreciation policy, resulting in a 7.1% decrease in depreciation and amortization costs, which supports good profit growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 283.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.33%. The net profit for Q2 was 50.59 billion yuan, up 5.17% year-on-year and 70.87% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 138.70 billion, 147.01 billion, and 155.63 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.4, 9.8, and 9.2 [1][4]. Business Segments - Personal business saw a net increase of 9.26 million mobile customers, with a total exceeding 1 billion. The 5G network customer base increased by 49 million to 514 million, with a penetration rate of 51.4% [1]. - The family business segment reported a net increase of 8.48 million broadband customers, with a total of 272 million, and a gigabit broadband penetration rate of 33.5% [1]. - The government and enterprise business segment leveraged cloud-network integration, achieving a 19.3% increase in mobile cloud revenue to 50.4 billion yuan [1]. Dividend Policy - The company announced an interim dividend of 2.60 HKD per share for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [1].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire Merck's global surface solutions business for €665 million (approximately RMB 51.87 billion), which is expected to significantly expand its global business footprint and increase revenue and EBIT by nearly threefold and 1.6 times, respectively [2][3]. - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance cost efficiency through supply chain synergies and leverage Merck's advanced technology to expand the application of pearlescent materials, potentially replacing traditional organic and metallic pigments [3]. - The company has been executing a dual strategy of organic growth and external expansion, with recent acquisitions positioning it to become a leader in the global pearlescent pigment market [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The company expects revenues of RMB 1,435 million in 2024, RMB 1,700 million in 2025, and RMB 1,934 million in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34.8%, 18.5%, and 13.8%, respectively [2][5]. - **Net Profit Projections**: The projected net profit for 2024 is RMB 210 million, increasing to RMB 267 million in 2025 and RMB 308 million in 2026, with growth rates of 15.8%, 26.8%, and 15.8% [2][5]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The gross margin is expected to remain stable at 49.7%, while the net margin is projected to be 18.5% in 2024, improving to 20.2% by 2026 [2][5][7]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is forecasted to increase from 5.2% in 2023 to 7.7% by 2026 [2][5][7]. Market Data - As of August 6, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock is HKD 3.85, with a total share capital of 1.2 billion shares and net assets amounting to RMB 3.2 billion [1].

感谢大家参加本次会议感谢大家参加本次会议 感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 大家好 欢迎参加新政海外深度与白讲每股新能源定框更新系列3 last check目前所有残灰者均处于静音状态 咱们开始播报免责声明本次变化会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权专载转发此次会议内容均属听权 心意证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的心意证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性 新业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容好的 谢谢会议助理各位投资人大家早上好我是新业证券海外团队张中业欢迎大家参加今天的 我们深度一百奖系列的美国本土跟踪支架龙头再次Tracker的一个近况更新这家公司我们也覆盖比较早了追踪的时间比较久之前就看这边有些投资人有和我们交流过也有些投资人可能是刚开始研究我们这一次还是跟之前的系列计划会一样从行业的情况公司的二季度业绩以及一个后续的展望来进行一个解读 那Lef ...

会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权专载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 各位尊敬的投资人早上好感谢各位来参加我们今天早上的电话会议我是信念海外TMT的行业负责人洪嘉俊然后今天我要跟大家汇报的是我们这个海外研究深度100讲系列关于台积电的一个业绩点评以及这个先进制程的一个展望吧 那所以接下来大概我会花十分钟左右来介绍一下台积电在二季度左右二季度的业绩然后以及一些相关的基本状况然后再花十分钟左右来讲一下先进制程以及我们对当前台积电一个投资的观点那首先我想先讲一下就是最近整个板块以及说这个英伟达一些相关的新闻对这个台积电的股价影响很大嘛但是整体来看的话 英伟达他自己现在虽然这个说法很多但比较推测有可能就是现在这个新产品B100这一块有可能需要重新设计或留片那但是这个会是一个比较小的 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: U.S. Photovoltaic Market - The U.S. photovoltaic market is experiencing high growth despite restrictions on component supply and grid connection permits, with an expected addition of 32.4 GW of new photovoltaic capacity in 2023, representing a 60% year-over-year increase [1] - Of this, centralized photovoltaic capacity is projected to reach 22.5 GW, a 91% increase year-over-year [1] - Overall photovoltaic installation capacity is expected to be 43.3 GW, reflecting a 34% year-over-year growth [1] - The U.S. has sufficient component inventory, and fluctuations in import policies have limited impact on installations [1] - The grid connection permit process can take up to three years, with total installation time requiring five years [1] - Future growth in centralized photovoltaic capacity is expected to be moderate [1] Photovoltaic Tracking Bracket Market and Policy Impact - U.S. photovoltaic tracking bracket companies receive subsidies, although the subsidy amounts are relatively small [2] - Policy incentives are aimed at stimulating domestic photovoltaic installations, with a base subsidy of 30% and an additional 10% subsidy [2] - By early 2025, 100% of the main components of tracking brackets will be manufactured domestically in the U.S. [2] Company Performance: Leischke Company - Leischke Company primarily serves the U.S. centralized photovoltaic power station market, with expectations of continued high growth in 2023, followed by moderate growth due to grid connection permit restrictions in subsequent years [3] - In the current high-interest rate environment, the ABC subsidy in the U.S. makes most power station projects economically viable, with installations expected to meet deadlines [3] - Leischke Company will achieve 100% U.S. manufacturing of tracking brackets by early 2025, providing a strong competitive advantage [3] - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, with performance on par with industry leaders, and channel barriers serve as a competitive moat [3] - Recently, Leischke Company has acquired several small U.S. companies to enhance technical applications in complex geological conditions, further improving its product matrix [3] - In Q1 of FY2025 (natural Q2 of 2024), the company had over $4 billion in orders, with Q2 revenue increasing by 50% year-over-year and remaining flat quarter-over-quarter [3] - Profitability metrics include $121 million and $47 million in corporate subsidies for Q1 and Q2, respectively, with Q2 gross profit increasing by 109% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter, achieving a gross margin of 33.5% [3] - Net profit reached $140 million, a 95% year-over-year increase, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter [3] - Cash flow remains strong [3] Full-Year Performance Expectations and Market Outlook - Leischke Company maintains its full-year profit guidance, expecting revenue to grow approximately 1415% year-over-year, with EBITDA growth around 20% [4] - The stock price of the U.S. photovoltaic sector is correlated with interest rate cut expectations, with Leischke's stock experiencing a notable decline due to broader market downturns and concerns over U.S. centralized photovoltaic installations [4] - The company boasts top-tier product performance, with established channel and brand barriers, ensuring stable performance and benefiting from domestic supply chain incentives, with 100% U.S. manufactured products expected by early 2025 [4] - Leischke is expanding into global markets, with some overseas operations still in the early stages [4] - The company has a flexible pricing mechanism, allowing cost increases to be passed on to downstream customers, maintaining high overall gross margins and translating revenue growth into profit increases [4] - Profit is expected to grow moderately, with an annualized growth rate of about 10% [4] - As of last Friday, the company's stock price corresponds to future P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 for the next three years, indicating a reasonable historical valuation [4] - Market interpretations of project delivery may be overly pessimistic; considering the potential benefits of U.S. interest rate cuts for the photovoltaic sector and the company's solid performance fundamentals, investors are encouraged to pay attention to Leischke Company [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting investors pay attention to its long-term potential [2][3]. Core Views - The company's profit in H1 2024 grew year-on-year, driven by an increase in photovoltaic glass sales, despite a weak supply-demand relationship in the industry [2]. - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be HKD 36.8 billion, HKD 44.4 billion, and HKD 52.8 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.4x, 7.0x, and 5.9x [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.10 per share, up from HKD 0.075 per share in the previous year, with a payout ratio of 45.4% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported revenue, gross profit, and net profit of HKD 126.9 billion, HKD 34.1 billion, and HKD 19.6 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.5%, 27.5%, and 41.0% [2]. - The gross margin for photovoltaic glass improved by 6.3 percentage points to 21.5% due to lower procurement costs and operational efficiency [2]. - The company's total nominal melting capacity reached 29,000 tons/day by the end of H1 2024, with plans to increase it to 32,200 tons/day by the end of 2024 [2][3]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic glass industry is currently facing pressure, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a decline in prices [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from its cost advantages and market share growth in the long term, despite short-term industry challenges [2]. - The report highlights that the company's overseas production capacity is expected to increase from 7% to 13% by the end of 2024, enhancing its competitive position [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company aims to achieve an average tangible equity return of approximately 15% for both 2024 and 2025, excluding notable items [3] - The expected net interest income for the banking business in 2024 is projected to be around $43 billion, an increase from previous estimates [3][19] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% for 2024 and has announced a share buyback program of up to $3 billion, expected to be completed within three months [3][5] Financial Highlights - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at $66.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 30.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be $22.4 billion in 2023, reflecting a 56.4% increase year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be $1.15 for 2023, with dividends per share expected to be $0.61 [2] - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a stable pre-tax profit of $21.6 billion, with total revenue increasing by $0.4 billion to $37.3 billion, a growth of 1% [5] - The average tangible equity return for the first half of 2024 is reported at 21.4%, while the adjusted figure excluding notable items is 17% [5] Future Projections - The company anticipates total revenue to reach $67.7 billion in 2024, with a modest growth rate of 2.5% [2] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to grow to $22.9 billion in 2024, a 1.9% increase [2] - The EPS is projected to rise to $1.22 in 2024, while dividends per share are expected to increase to $0.81 [2]