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华住集团-S:保持积极的开店节奏
兴证国际证券· 2024-12-05 09:54
Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company maintains a positive store expansion pace, focusing on mid-to-high-end brands, increasing penetration in lower-tier cities, and enhancing business travel cooperation and member loyalty [4] - Domestic RevPAR is under pressure due to a high base effect from the previous year, with OCC showing resilience but ADR declining significantly [4] - The company expects 2024E/2025E/2026E revenues of 23.7/25.8/28.0 billion RMB, with YoY growth of 8.2%/9.1%/8.3%, and net profits of 3.7/4.4/4.8 billion RMB, with YoY changes of -9.3%/+17.4%/+11.2% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to 2024E/2025E/2026E P/E ratios of 19/16/15x [4] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue reached 6.44 billion RMB, up 2.4% YoY, with domestic self-operated, domestic franchised, overseas self-operated, and overseas franchised revenues at 2.461, 2.568, 1.229, and 0.034 billion RMB, respectively [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024Q3 was 2.11 billion RMB, down 9.5% YoY, with domestic and overseas segments contributing 2.09 and 0.02 billion RMB, respectively [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 32.8%, down 4.3 ppts YoY and 0.4 ppts QoQ [4] - Adjusted net profit was 1.37 billion RMB, down 10.8% YoY [4] Operational Metrics - Domestic RevPAR, ADR, and OCC for 2024Q3 were 256 RMB, 301 RMB, and 84.9%, down 8.1%, 7.0%, and 1.0 ppts YoY, respectively [4] - Overseas RevPAR, ADR, and OCC for 2024Q3 were 82 EUR, 117 EUR, and 69.8%, up 3.7%, 2.5%, and 0.8 ppts YoY, respectively [4] - The company opened 790 new domestic stores in 2024Q3, with the full-year store opening guidance raised from 2,200 to 2,400 stores [4] - Total store count reached 10,845 by the end of 2024Q3, with over 800 new contracts signed during the quarter [4] Financial Projections - 2024E/2025E/2026E revenues are projected at 23.7/25.8/28.0 billion RMB, with YoY growth of 8.2%/9.1%/8.3% [5] - 2024E/2025E/2026E net profits are projected at 3.7/4.4/4.8 billion RMB, with YoY changes of -9.3%/+17.4%/+11.2% [5] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EBITDA is projected at 6.78/7.51/8.17 billion RMB, with YoY changes of -0.8%/+10.8%/+8.7% [5] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is projected at 1.16/1.37/1.52 RMB [5]
Snowflake Inc-A:业绩超预期,AI新品采用向好
兴证国际证券· 2024-12-04 07:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance exceeded expectations with strong order growth, reporting total revenue of $942.1 million for FY2025Q3, a year-over-year increase of 28%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 4.8% [3]. - The remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $5.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 55% [3]. - Non-GAAP product gross profit was $686.9 million, with a gross margin of 76%, down 2 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - The company has a robust customer base, with 542 customers generating over $1 million in product revenue over the past 12 months, an increase of 25% year-over-year [3]. - The company signed contracts worth over $350 million in total contract value, with management expecting this momentum to continue into Q4 [3]. - The adoption of AI products is favorable, with over 1,000 AI and ML use cases deployed, and more than 3,200 accounts utilizing Snowflake's AI and ML capabilities [3]. Financial Summary - For FY2025, the company raised its revenue and profit guidance, projecting product revenue for FY2025Q4 to be between $906 million and $911 million, a year-over-year increase of 23% [3]. - The full-year product revenue forecast was adjusted from $3.356 billion to $3.430 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29% [3]. - Non-GAAP operating profit margin is expected to be 5%, up from a previous estimate of 3% [3]. - Key financial metrics for FY2024A to FY2027E include: - Revenue growth rates of 35.9% for FY2024A, 27.6% for FY2025E, 22.7% for FY2026E, and 22.8% for FY2027E [5]. - Adjusted net profit for FY2025E is projected at $249 million, a decrease of 29.5% year-over-year [5]. - Adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 7.0% for FY2025E [5].
美团-W:业绩持续超预期,海外投入加大
兴证国际证券· 2024-12-04 06:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to exceed expectations, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 93.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing market consensus of 92 billion RMB. Operating profit was 13.7 billion RMB, up 307.5% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 14.6%, an increase of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 12.8 billion RMB, a 124.0% year-on-year increase, also above market expectations of 11.8 billion RMB [4]. - The core local business revenue was 69.4 billion RMB, growing 20.2% year-on-year, with operating profit of 14.6 billion RMB, up 44.4% year-on-year. The new business segment generated 24.2 billion RMB in revenue, a 28.9% increase, with operating losses narrowing by 79.9% to 1 billion RMB [4]. - The company's instant delivery orders reached 7.1 billion, a 14.5% year-on-year increase, with daily average orders hitting 76.93 million. The food delivery segment saw a recovery in average order value, with a decrease in the decline rate compared to previous months [4]. - The company is strategically expanding into overseas markets, with the launch of KeeTa in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, indicating significant growth potential in the local delivery market [4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 276.745 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 337.075 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 23.253 billion RMB in 2023 to 44.254 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 90.3% [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2024, with adjusted EPS increasing from 3.78 RMB to 7.19 RMB [3][8]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought back over 600 million USD worth of stock since early September, amounting to approximately 4.2% of its shares [4].
舜宇光学科技:公司跟踪:手机行业回暖,产品结构改善
兴证国际证券· 2024-12-04 06:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 32.1% year-over-year, achieving 18.86 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, driven by a recovery in the smartphone market and growth in automotive and VR business segments [3]. - The gross profit reached 3.25 billion RMB, reflecting a 52.4% year-over-year increase, while net profit surged by 142.0% to 1.11 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations [3]. - The smartphone segment is expected to benefit from the demand recovery and product structure improvement, with a projected smartphone shipment of 1.24 billion units in 2024 [3]. - The automotive business is also on an upward trajectory, with a forecasted global shipment of 340 million automotive cameras in 2024, representing a 30.8% year-over-year growth [3]. - The XR business is gaining traction, with anticipated annual sales of over 2 million units for AI glasses, indicating a growing market for AR applications [3]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 38.2 billion RMB, 44.2 billion RMB, and 48.3 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 2.54 billion RMB, 3.25 billion RMB, and 3.65 billion RMB in the same years [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 18.86 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a 32.1% increase year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of 17.22 billion RMB [3]. - The net profit for the same period was 1.11 billion RMB, a 142.0% increase year-over-year, exceeding the expected 1.03 billion RMB [3]. - The gross margin improved significantly, reflecting better profitability in smartphone camera modules [3]. Business Segments - **Smartphone Business**: The company saw a recovery in smartphone demand, with a shipment of 1.108 billion camera lenses, a 17.1% increase year-over-year, and a slight decline in camera module shipments [3]. - **Automotive Business**: The company shipped 88.5 million automotive lenses in the first ten months of 2024, a growth of 11.6% year-over-year, with expectations for continued growth in the coming years [3]. - **XR Business**: The company is positioned as a supplier for AI glasses, with significant sales growth anticipated in the AR market [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from trends in AI smartphones and high-end product demand, with a positive outlook for its automotive and XR segments [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 indicate strong growth, with net profit margins expected to improve [3].
中通快递-W:收入利润均衡增长
兴证国际证券· 2024-11-29 00:29
Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [2][7][9] Core Views - Balanced growth in revenue and profit driven by rapid growth in scattered and reverse parcels [2][8] - Optimized unit costs through efficient route planning and improved loading rates [3][8] - Market share increased to 20.0% in 2024Q3, up 0.4 percentage points sequentially [3][9] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue reached RMB 10.7 billion, up 17.6% YoY [2][8] - Express service revenue grew 18.1% YoY, accounting for 91.9% of total revenue [2][8] - Freight forwarding and material sales grew 0.8% and 27.6% YoY respectively [2][8] - 2024Q3 net profit reached RMB 2.38 billion, up 1.3% YoY [3][8] - 2024Q3 gross margin improved to 31.2%, up 1.4 percentage points YoY [3][8] - Operating margin slightly decreased to 26.6%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY [3][8] Operational Highlights - Parcel volume in 2024Q3 reached 8.72 billion, up 15.9% YoY [2][8] - Unit transportation cost decreased by 9.7% YoY [3][8] - Unit sorting center operating cost decreased by 6.4% YoY [3][8] - Direct customer business revenue (including delivery fees) surged 122.1% YoY [2][8] - Scattered parcels grew over 40% YoY [2][8] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 151.9 [4] - Total shares outstanding: 810 million [4] - Market capitalization: HKD 123.1 billion [4] - Net assets attributable to parent company: RMB 60.6 billion [4] - Total assets: RMB 93.3 billion [4] - Net asset per share: RMB 74.8 [4] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue: RMB 43.24 billion, up 12.5% YoY [6] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent: RMB 9.503 billion, up 8.6% YoY [6][7] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent: RMB 11.124 billion, up 17.1% YoY [6][7] - 2026E net profit attributable to parent: RMB 12.519 billion, up 12.5% YoY [6][7] - 2024E-2026E EPS: RMB 11.88/13.91/15.66 [6]
小米集团-W:手机高端化顺利,IOT与汽车高增
兴证国际证券· 2024-11-29 00:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting optimism about its growth prospects, particularly in high-end smartphones, IoT, and automotive sectors [2][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 92.5 billion (YoY +30.5%, QoQ +4.1%) and net profit of RMB 5.34 billion (YoY +9.7%, QoQ +5.3%) [1] - The smartphone business achieved revenue of RMB 47.45 billion (YoY +13.9%, QoQ +2.0%) with a gross margin of 11.7%, driven by higher ASPs due to increased high-end smartphone sales [1] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue grew to RMB 26.10 billion (YoY +26.3%), with strong growth in major appliances, tablets, and wearables [1] - The smart electric vehicle business reported revenue of RMB 8.04 billion (QoQ +49.1%) with a gross margin of 17.1%, delivering 39,800 vehicles in Q3 and targeting 130,000 units for the full year [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 355.7 billion in 2024 to RMB 515.8 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 19.9 billion to RMB 32.1 billion over the same period [1] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.78 in 2024 to RMB 1.26 in 2026, with a P/E ratio declining from 34.1x to 21.0x [1][5] Business Highlights - The smartphone segment is on track to achieve its annual shipment target of 170 million units, with flagship models performing exceptionally well [1] - IoT and lifestyle products, particularly major appliances, are expected to grow by 50% YoY in 2024 [1] - The automotive business is gaining momentum, with 100,000 vehicles delivered by November 2024 and a full-year target of 130,000 units [1]
联想集团:业绩好于预期,混合AI有望驱动增长
兴证国际证券· 2024-11-28 10:29
Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for Lenovo Group (00992 HK) [3] Core Views - Lenovo Group's FY25Q2 revenue reached $17 85 billion (YoY +24% QoQ +16%) exceeding FactSet consensus estimates of $16 3 billion Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was $404 million (YoY +48% QoQ +28%) also surpassing FactSet consensus estimates of $359 million [1] - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) reported revenue of $13 5 billion (YoY +17% QoQ +18%) with an operating margin of 7 3% (YoY -0 1pct QoQ flat) PC shipments reached 16 5 million units (YoY +3 0%) outperforming the global market decline of -2 4% Non-PC segments including smartphones and tablets saw revenue growth of 43% and 19% respectively [1] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) achieved revenue of $3 305 billion (YoY +65% QoQ +5%) with an operating margin of -1 1% (YoY +1 6pcts QoQ +0 1pct) The group continues to benefit from strong AI server order growth [2] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported revenue of $2 165 billion (YoY +13% QoQ +15%) with an operating margin of 20 4% (YoY +0 4pct QoQ -0 6pct) AI-driven projects and solutions contributed to a 19% YoY growth in project and solution services [2] - Lenovo's hybrid AI strategy is expected to drive growth with projected FY2025-2027 revenues of $66 1 billion $72 6 billion and $78 8 billion respectively and net profits attributable to shareholders of $1 211 billion $1 453 billion and $1 695 billion [2] Financial Performance - FY25Q2 revenue: $17 85 billion (YoY +24% QoQ +16%) [1] - FY25Q2 Non-IFRS net profit: $404 million (YoY +48% QoQ +28%) [1] - IDG revenue: $13 5 billion (YoY +17% QoQ +18%) [1] - ISG revenue: $3 305 billion (YoY +65% QoQ +5%) [2] - SSG revenue: $2 165 billion (YoY +13% QoQ +15%) [2] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 9 07 [2] - Total shares outstanding: 12 405 million [2] - Net assets attributable to shareholders: $5 477 billion [2] - Total assets: $44 464 billion [2] - Net assets per share: $0 44 [2] Financial Projections - FY2025E revenue: $66 093 billion (YoY +16 2%) [2] - FY2026E revenue: $72 587 billion (YoY +9 8%) [2] - FY2027E revenue: $78 800 billion (YoY +8 6%) [2] - FY2025E net profit: $1 211 billion (YoY +19 8%) [2] - FY2026E net profit: $1 453 billion (YoY +20 0%) [2] - FY2027E net profit: $1 695 billion (YoY +16 7%) [2] Key Financial Ratios - FY2025E gross margin: 16 1% [2] - FY2025E operating margin: 3 5% [2] - FY2025E net margin: 1 8% [2] - FY2025E ROE: 18 8% [2] - FY2025E PE ratio: 11 9x [2] - FY2025E PB ratio: 2 3x [2]
京东物流:盈利性持续改善,未来重视收入端增长
兴证国际证券· 2024-11-24 11:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for revenue growth and profitability improvements [2][7] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by its integration with Taotian, which is expected to enhance customer ARPU and attract new clients [2][5] - Cost reduction measures have significantly improved profitability, with adjusted net profit increasing by 205.1% YoY in 2024Q3 [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 180.3 billion, 196.0 billion, and 211.2 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.0%, 4.1%, and 4.2% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024Q3, the company's total revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB, a 6.6% YoY increase [5] - Integrated supply chain revenue was 20.7 billion RMB, with internal revenue from JD Group growing 8.1% YoY to 12.79 billion RMB, while external revenue was 7.87 billion RMB, with customer numbers up 9.4% but ARPU down 7.4% [5] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, supported by improved service capabilities and expanded air routes [5] Cost Efficiency - In 2024Q3, employee benefits, outsourcing costs, rental costs, depreciation, and other operating costs were 14.6 billion, 15.0 billion, 3.1 billion, 1.1 billion, and 5.4 billion RMB, respectively, with changes of +4.8%, +2.7%, 0.0%, +10.0%, and -5.3% YoY [6] - Gross margin improved to 11.7%, up 3.8 percentage points YoY, driven by automation, optimized vehicle scheduling, and network structure improvements [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance service quality by increasing transportation routes and frontline staff, while exploring opportunities in industrial belts [7] - Integration with Taotian is expected to provide a new revenue stream, contributing to future growth [7]
快手-W:业绩符合预期,外循环广告驱动增长
兴证国际证券· 2024-11-24 02:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance met expectations, with Q3 2024 total revenue reaching 31.131 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, slightly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 30.030 billion RMB, driven by growth in online marketing services and other services [3]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 3.948 billion RMB, up 24.4% year-on-year, also slightly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.909 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12.7% [3]. - Daily active users (DAU) surpassed 400 million, reaching 407.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with average daily usage time per user at 132 minutes [3]. - The online marketing services segment showed strong performance, with revenue of 17.634 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue [3]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached 334.2 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with active buyers increasing by 12.2% [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 113.47 billion RMB, with a projected revenue of 127.23 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.1% [2]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 54.6% in 2024 [2]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from 10.27 billion RMB in 2023 to 17.71 billion RMB in 2024, with an adjusted net profit margin increasing from 9.1% to 13.9% [2].
美高梅中国:大众博彩发力,业绩符合预期
兴证国际证券· 2024-11-24 01:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with strong growth in mass gaming and non-gaming segments, despite a slowdown in VIP segment recovery [5]. - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at HKD 304.4 billion, HKD 323.1 billion, and HKD 339.7 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 23.3%, 6.1%, and 5.1% respectively [5]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout, with a projected dividend yield of 5.8% for 2024 based on a 50% payout ratio [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: HKD 246.8 billion - 2024E: HKD 304.4 billion (YoY growth: 23.3%) - 2025E: HKD 323.1 billion (YoY growth: 6.1%) - 2026E: HKD 339.7 billion (YoY growth: 5.1%) [4][5] - **EBITDA**: - 2023A: HKD 72.4 billion - 2024E: HKD 84.3 billion (YoY growth: 16.6%) - 2025E: HKD 87.2 billion (YoY growth: 3.4%) - 2026E: HKD 90.7 billion (YoY growth: 4.0%) [4][5] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: HKD 26.4 billion - 2024E: HKD 41.9 billion (YoY growth: 58.6%) - 2025E: HKD 47.8 billion (YoY growth: 14.2%) - 2026E: HKD 54.1 billion (YoY growth: 13.2%) [4][5] - **Key Ratios**: - EBITDA Margin: - 2023A: 29.3% - 2024E: 27.7% - 2025E: 27.0% - 2026E: 26.7% [4][5] - Net Profit Margin: - 2023A: 10.7% - 2024E: 13.7% - 2025E: 14.8% - 2026E: 15.9% [4][5] Market Data - Closing Price (as of November 15, 2024): HKD 9.47 - Total Shares Outstanding: 3.801 billion - Total Market Capitalization: HKD 360 billion - Total Assets: HKD 300.35 billion - Total Liabilities: HKD 30.51 billion [2][4].