Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.38 [4] Core Views - The company is in the final stage of its capacity expansion phase, with capital expenditures expected to slow down significantly by FY2026 [4] - The company's total designed capacity is projected to increase by 370 million tons to 25.37 million tons by FY2025, driven by expansions in Guangxi and Hubei [4] - The company's cost pressure is expected to ease due to the decline in overseas hardwood pulp prices, and paper prices are anticipated to stabilize and rise in the second half of the year [4] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow by 9.1%, 6.9%, and 6.6% in FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with net profit expected to increase by 66.7%, 30.4%, and 24.6% over the same period [4] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue increased by 4.9% YoY to RMB 59.5 billion, with net profit turning positive to RMB 751 million [5] - Sales volume for FY2024 grew by 18.3% YoY to 19.6 million tons, driven by strong performance in cardboard sales [5] - Average selling price in H2 FY2024 decreased by RMB 64/ton to RMB 2,997/ton, with mixed performance across product categories [5] - The company's fiber raw material capacity increased by 520,000 tons to 5.14 million tons, with further expansions expected in Guangxi and Hubei [5] - FY2024 operating cash flow was negative RMB 794 million, primarily due to a significant increase in bank acceptance bills [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 64.9 billion, RMB 69.3 billion, and RMB 73.9 billion in FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively [6] - Net profit is expected to grow to RMB 1.26 billion, RMB 1.66 billion, and RMB 2.08 billion over the same period [6] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 9.6% in FY2024 to 10.6% by FY2027, with net margin increasing from 1.3% to 2.9% [6] - ROE is expected to rise from 1.5% in FY2024 to 4.0% by FY2027 [6] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets are projected to grow from RMB 138.4 billion in FY2024 to RMB 166.7 billion by FY2027 [8] - Cash and cash equivalents are expected to increase from RMB 10.7 billion in FY2024 to RMB 20.6 billion by FY2027 [8] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to turn positive in FY2025, reaching RMB 9.35 billion, and continue to grow in subsequent years [11] - Capital expenditures are expected to decline significantly from FY2026 onwards, supporting debt repayment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.36 as of October 15, 2024 [5][6] Core Views - The company remains the industry leader in the property management sector, maintaining a 23.8% market share in new contract signings for H1 2024 [6] - Despite industry-wide challenges, the company's profitability continues to improve, with a projected 5.3% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6][7] - The company's dividend payout exceeded expectations, contributing to its attractiveness as an investment [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 3,302 million, with a projected increase to RMB 4,491 million by 2026, representing a CAGR of 10.8% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 30.8% YoY in 2023, reaching RMB 974 million, and is expected to reach RMB 1,350 million by 2026 [6] - The company's ROE remains strong at 29.5% for 2023, with a slight increase to 30.1% projected for 2026 [6] Market Position and Industry Trends - The company secured new contract signings of 17.46 million square meters in H1 2024, maintaining its leading position in the industry [6] - The property management industry is facing headwinds, with new project fees declining by 16.4% YoY as of September 30, 2024, due to reduced land acquisitions by potential clients [7] - The company's contracted area reached 122.8 million square meters as of June 30, 2024, with a corresponding salable value of RMB 892 billion [7] Operational Metrics - The company's gross margin stood at 52.2% in 2023, with a slight decline to 51.2% projected for 2026 [6] - Government-related projects saw a significant decline in gross margin, dropping by 4.4 percentage points to 40.4% in H1 2024 [7] - Operating cash flow decreased by 87% YoY to RMB 77.5 million in H1 2024, primarily due to delayed fee collections and slower project initiation [7] Valuation - The company's PE ratio is projected at 6.0x for 2024, 5.1x for 2025, and 4.6x for 2026, based on the closing price of HKD 3.36 as of October 15, 2024 [6] - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.6x in 2024 to 1.4x by 2026, reflecting the company's strong asset base and growth potential [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue increased by 17.8% YoY to RMB 3.25 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging 169.7% YoY to RMB 350 million [4] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 570 million, up 36% QoQ, meeting expectations [4] - The average Shanghai gold price in Q3 2024 rose to RMB 569/g, up RMB 17/g from Q2 2024 and RMB 109/g YoY [4] - The company's Haiyu gold mine project is progressing smoothly, with key underground connections completed, and is expected to commence production in mid-2025 [4] - The company established a joint venture with Zijin Mining to explore gold resource acquisitions and development opportunities [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 8.424 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.485 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.5% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 686 million in 2023 to RMB 2.775 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 59.2% [5] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 40.0% in 2023 to 50.2% in 2026 [5] - ROE is expected to rise from 3.6% in 2023 to 11.0% in 2026 [5] Operational Highlights - The company's Haiyu gold mine is expected to reach full production capacity of 16 tons/year by end-2027 [4] - The company's self-produced gold output is projected to nearly triple from 2023 to 2028 [4] - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt by RMB 840 million in Q3 2024 [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 56.8x in 2023 to 14.6x in 2026 [8] - The PB ratio is forecasted to decrease from 2.07x in 2023 to 1.61x in 2026 [8] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB 0.21 in 2023 to RMB 0.82 in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - Sales are gradually recovering, with a gross margin remaining robust. In Q2 2024, the company sold approximately 108,600 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. Total revenue reached 31.7 billion RMB, up 10.6% year-on-year and 23.6% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for vehicles in Q2 was 18.7%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB [4][5] - The company is accelerating the iteration of smart driving technology, launching a new generation of intelligent driving experience based on "end-to-end + VLM" [4] - The company is actively expanding its sales service and charging network, with 497 retail centers and 421 after-sales service centers as of June 30, 2024 [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 143.7 billion, 195.6 billion, and 285.2 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 36.1%, and 45.8% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 99.75 - Total shares (million): 2,122 - Net assets (million RMB): 62,884 - Total assets (million RMB): 145,110 - Net asset per share (RMB): 29.63 [2] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 sales: 108,600 units, up 25.5% YoY - Q2 2024 total revenue: 31.7 billion RMB, up 10.6% YoY, 23.6% QoQ - Q2 2024 net profit: 1.1 billion RMB, non-GAAP net profit: 1.5 billion RMB - Q3 2024 sales guidance: 145,000 to 155,000 units, YoY growth of 38.0% to 47.5% [4] Future Outlook - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 143.7 billion, 195.6 billion, 285.2 billion RMB - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 7.1 billion, 9.8 billion, 17.5 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue: 16.0%, 36.1%, 45.8% [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 9,957 million RMB in 2023 to 11,387 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 14.4% [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the company is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 50.94 billion RMB in 2024, 59.91 billion RMB in 2025, and 71.62 billion RMB in 2026 [3]. - The domestic business is performing well, with a notable increase in occupancy rates and data center area, which has grown to 580,165 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [3]. - International business demand is also on the rise, with significant growth in the GDSI segment, which achieved a revenue of 2.56 billion RMB in Q2 2024, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% [3]. Financial Summary - The company's total assets are reported at 791.65 billion RMB, with a net asset value of 194.47 billion RMB [1]. - The projected net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 4,285 million RMB in 2023 to a profit of 329 million RMB by 2026 [2][4]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to increase, with net profit margins projected to rise from -43.0% in 2023 to 30.1% in 2026 [2][4]. Business Development - The company is actively pursuing asset monetization projects, including the establishment of a REIT for data center assets, which is currently undergoing regulatory approval [3]. - The company has a cash balance of 31 billion RMB as of Q2 2024, with plans for further equity financing to support growth initiatives [3]. Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong position in both domestic and international markets, with a clear strategy for growth and expansion in data center services [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased demand for data center services driven by technological advancements and digital transformation trends [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting revenue growth for 2024 and 2025 at 0.8% and 0.9% respectively, while core net profit is expected to decrease by 4.0% in 2024 and increase by 3.2% in 2025 [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The company's mid-year performance for 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 86.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. Revenue from real estate development and commercial property operations was 82.04 billion yuan and 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% and an increase of 19.8% respectively [5][9]. - The company faced pressure on sales, with contract sales amounting to 148.38 billion yuan and an area of 5.44 million square meters, representing declines of 17.6% and 32.3% year-on-year. The company has been cautious in land acquisition, adding only 6 plots of land in the first half of 2024, with a total land reserve area of 3.322 million square meters [9][11]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of 38.7%, which is low compared to industry standards. The average financing cost has decreased to 3.50%, and the company holds over 100 billion yuan in cash reserves [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a core net profit of 10.64 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year, and a mid-year dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, a decrease of 14.3% [5][6][9]. - The gross margin and core net profit margin for the first half of 2024 were 22.1% and 12.2%, respectively, both showing slight declines but remaining at a high industry level [7][11]. Revenue Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 and 2025 is 204.1 billion yuan and 206 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 0.8% and 0.9% [4][13]. - Core net profit projections for 2024 and 2025 are 22.7 billion yuan and 23.4 billion yuan, with a decrease of 4.0% in 2024 followed by a growth of 3.2% in 2025 [4][13]. Land Acquisition and Sales - The company has been cautious in land acquisition, with new land purchases accounting for only 9% of sales in the first half of 2024. The total land reserve continues to be depleted, with a total of 3.322 million square meters as of June 30, 2024 [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company is focusing on granular silicon technology, with a structured capacity release and an overseas expansion strategy that leverages the carbon emission and ESG advantages of granular silicon. The low energy consumption and cost advantages of granular silicon help the company navigate through market cycles. Product quality is improving, and the price gap with rod-shaped silicon N-type products is narrowing. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company benefits from a leading cost advantage in silane gas, driven by downstream demand recovery, leading to profit growth. The company also has advanced perovskite technology and is building GW-level production lines to expand long-term capacity. [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 57.7% year-on-year to 8.86 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in silicon material and wafer prices, partially offset by an increase in silicon material shipment volume. - Gross profit for 2024 was -550 million yuan, a decrease of 9.33 billion yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 48.1 percentage points to -6.2%, attributed to falling product prices. - The company recognized an inventory impairment of 820 million yuan due to the decline in silicon material and wafer prices. - Net profit for H1 2024 was -2.02 billion yuan, with the attributable net profit at -1.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 billion yuan year-on-year, in line with expectations. - The company has repurchased shares worth 58 million yuan, 182 million yuan, and 24 million yuan in 2022, 2023, and H1 2024 respectively, with plans for a total repurchase or dividend distribution of no less than 2.5 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026. [1] Granular Silicon Production - The company has gradually released granular silicon capacity, with production capacity reaching 420,000 tons by the end of H1 2024. - The company plans to add 60,000 tons of module capacity in Xuzhou and expand capacity in the Middle East. - In H1 2024, granular silicon production increased by 66% year-on-year to 136,000 tons, with shipments (including internal sales) up 76% to 126,000 tons, and external sales up 85% to 121,000 tons. The average selling price of granular silicon was 40.3 yuan/kg. [1] Cost and Quality Advantages - Granular silicon has low energy consumption, providing cost and carbon footprint advantages. As domestic preferential electricity prices are gradually eliminated, the company's cost advantage over peers may widen. - Product quality is improving, with the total metal impurity ratio for granular silicon at ≤0.5 ppbw reaching 95.8% in July 2024, a significant increase from Q2 2023. - The company's products with a quality rating of 910A and above accounted for 96.6% of total products, an increase of 11.3 percentage points from February 2024. - The company has introduced a "turbidity" concept to represent the content of granular silicon powder, with 99.9% of products having turbidity <120 NTU in July 2024, a 79.3 percentage point increase from Q1 2023. [1] Silane Gas Business - The silane gas business is expected to benefit from demand in silicon-carbon anodes, photovoltaic cells, semiconductors, and display panels. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company has a significant cost advantage in silane gas, which is expected to contribute to profit growth. [1] Perovskite Technology - The company is advancing its perovskite technology through its subsidiary, with the world's first 100MW perovskite pilot production capacity established. A groundbreaking ceremony for a GW-level large-scale perovskite production base was held in December 2023. The conversion efficiency of the company's 1×2m perovskite single-junction module is 19.04%, and the efficiency of the 369×555mm stacked module is 27.34%. [1]

司点评报 外 研 究 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | | | | 日期 | 2024-9-13 | | 收盘价（港元） | 5.70 | | 总股本（亿股） | 35.86 | | 流通股本（亿股） | 35.86 | | 归母净资产（亿元） | 79.47 | | 总资产（亿元） | 130.43 | | | | | 每股归母净资产（元） 数据来源： Wind | 2.22 ，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn SFC：BPL829 SAC：S0190519080002 zhouluyun@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190522070002 请注意：周路昀并非香港证券及期货 事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可 在香港从事受监管的活动 ＃海e外m研ail究Author＃ 洪嘉骏 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------ ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 新能源行业 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 （ ＃ 维持 ） ＃ 03931.HK ＃中dy创Com新pa航ny＃ ＃title＃ 动力、储能双开花，业绩弹性可期 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 9 月 15 日 投资要点 ＃ su我m们m的ar观y＃点：中创新航是全球头部锂电池厂商，公司产能释放、产品矩阵趋于完善、客户资源扩充， 动力及储能电池有望持续放量，规模效应显现。我们看好公司的长期发展空间及业绩改善情况，预计 公司 2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为 5.92、9.66、12.50 亿元，分别同比+101.3%、+63.1%、+29.4%。 截至 2024 年 9 月 13 日收盘，公司股价对应 2024-2026 年 PE 各为 31.8x、19.5x、15.1x，对应 PB 各为 0.53x、0.52x、0.50x；我们维持公司"增持"评级，建议投资者关注。 2024H1 业绩符合预期，利润大增：1）收入：2024H1 同比+1%至 124.7 亿元，其中动力电池、储能及 其他产品收入各为 97.2、27.5 亿元，分别同比-6% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong fundamentals and consistent performance [1][6] Core Views - The company achieved record-high net profit in H1 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 226.8 billion, up 18.1% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising 25% YoY to RMB 79.7 billion [1][4] - Free cash flow remained robust at RMB 63.99 billion, with a capital expenditure of RMB 63.1 billion, up 11.7% YoY, completing 47-51% of the annual budget [1][4] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.74 per share, a 25.4% YoY increase, with a payout ratio of 40.3% [1][4] Financial Performance - Net production reached a record high of 362.6 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in H1 2024, up 9.3% YoY, driven by contributions from domestic fields like Kenli 6-1 and Bozhong 19-6, as well as the Payara project in Guyana [1][5] - Average realized oil price increased by 9.2% YoY to USD 80.32 per barrel in H1 2024, while average realized gas price declined by 4.1% YoY to USD 7.79 per thousand cubic feet [1][5] - The company's cost control was effective, with a 1.5% YoY reduction in barrel oil equivalent cost to USD 27.75 per BOE [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 at RMB 141.8 billion, RMB 152.1 billion, and RMB 163.3 billion, with YoY growth rates of 14.5%, 7.2%, and 7.4%, respectively, assuming a Brent crude price of USD 80 per barrel [1][6] - Under different oil price scenarios (USD 60, 70, and 85 per barrel), the company's net profit for 2025 could range from RMB 100 billion to RMB 163 billion, with dividend yields of 5.3%, 6.8%, and 8.6%, respectively [6] Market Data - As of September 10, 2024, the company's closing price was HKD 19.16, with a total market capitalization of HKD 911.4 billion and total assets of RMB 1.0754 trillion [2] - The company's net asset value per share stood at RMB 15.1, with a dividend yield of 6.5% in 2023, expected to rise to 8.6% by 2026 [3][11]