证券研究报告 2024年12月30日 行业：传媒 增持（维持） IP助力悦己消费，"谷子经济"打开新的空间 ——传媒行业2025年年度策略 目录/Contents 01 02 03 04 05 行情回顾-整体跑输指数 游戏行业稳健增长，IP生态成为核心引擎 影视板块票房有望修复，微短剧增长潜力较大 广告行业保持平稳增长，AIGC落地较快 谷子经济快速增长，IP是核心驱动力 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1.1 行业回顾：今年以来传媒板块表现弱于大盘 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 ◼ 年初至今，截至2024年11月30日，申万传媒板块整体涨幅为8.57%，同期创业板综合指数区间涨跌幅为 15.13%，沪深300区间涨跌幅为14.15%，申万传媒指数均跑输创业板综合指数和沪深300指数。 ◼ 31个申万一级行业排名第13。 ◼ 截止到11月30日，SW传媒的PE约为40.1倍，处于历史估值中枢附近。 分析师：应豪 SAC编号：S1760524050002，E-mail：yinghao@yongxingsec.com 分析师：黄伯乐 SAC编号：S1760520110001，E-mail：huangbole@yon ...

Group 1: Industrial Enterprises Performance - Industrial enterprises' cumulative operating income from January to November decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous value of 1.9%[4] - The total profit of industrial enterprises for the same period showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.7%, worsening from the previous decline of 4.3%[4] - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 10.0%[4] Group 2: Asset and Liability Trends - From January to November, the total assets of industrial enterprises increased by 4.7% year-on-year, up from 4.6% previously, indicating a reversal of the previous downward trend[4] - The total liabilities of industrial enterprises also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, compared to 4.5% previously, suggesting a rebound in the balance sheet[4] Group 3: PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1%, slightly down from 50.3% in November, remaining above the critical threshold for three consecutive months[4] - The construction PMI showed a significant recovery, rising to 53.2% from 49.7% in the previous month[4] - The service sector PMI increased to 52.0%, up from 50.1%, indicating further improvement in economic activity[4] Group 4: Inventory and Price Indices - The production index in the manufacturing PMI for December was 52.1%, down from 52.4% in November, while the purchasing quantity index rose to 51.5% from 51.0%[5] - The raw material inventory index remained below the critical value at 48.3%, slightly up from 48.2%, and the finished goods inventory index was at 47.9%, up from 47.4%[5] - The purchasing price index in December was 48.2%, down from 49.8%, and the factory price index was 46.7%, down from 47.7%, indicating downward pressure on prices[18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [28][36]. Core Insights - The retail sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with a notable decline in the index by 2.13% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.48 percentage points [29][36]. - The report highlights a recovery in offline sales driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption, suggesting a gradual improvement in consumer confidence [29][46]. - Key investment themes include the growth of physical retail spaces that cater to emotional value consumption and the ongoing expansion of e-commerce platforms [30][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The retail sector ranked 22nd among 30 sectors in the CITIC index this week, with significant gains in sub-sectors like supermarkets and medical beauty [19][39]. - Year-to-date, the retail sector has increased by 14.57%, still lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [36]. 2. Industry Data Tracking - In November, the total retail sales reached 4.38 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [46]. - The online retail penetration rate remains high, with online sales accounting for 26.7% of total retail sales [47]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Major Events - Notable developments include the opening of new stores by major players like Walmart and Hema, indicating aggressive expansion strategies [58][60]. - The report mentions the collaboration between Ai Ying Shi and Bandai to create a Gundam base in Suzhou, which is expected to attract younger consumers [8]. 4. Company Performance - The report identifies top-performing stocks in the retail sector, with Dongbai Group and Zhongbai Group showing significant gains of 32.87% and 28.38% respectively [23][39]. - Conversely, companies like Wenfeng and Dongfang Group faced substantial declines, with losses of 19.89% and 19.24% respectively [43][39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [7][19]. Core Insights - High-speed copper connections: The GB200 features 5000 NVLink copper cables, and the related industry chain is expected to continue benefiting. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the demand for AI servers and high-throughput switches is increasing, which will drive the growth of high-speed backplane connectors. The global backplane connector market was valued at 2 billion USD in 2021 and is projected to reach 5 billion USD by 2031 [4][31]. - Domestic substitution: It is anticipated that the sales revenue of domestic semiconductor equipment will grow by 35% in 2024, exceeding 110 billion CNY, with a market share in mainland China increasing to 30%, up 5 percentage points from 2023 [5][74]. - Advanced packaging: Samsung is expanding its advanced packaging capabilities, which is expected to benefit the related industry chain. The importance of packaging in HBM products is increasing, prompting Samsung to invest in both domestic and overseas production bases [72]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - AI edge: The penetration rate of AI functions in the smart glasses market is expected to exceed 60% by 2025, with the related industry chain likely to benefit continuously [71]. - High-speed copper connections: Benefiting from the development of AI servers, the industry chain is expected to benefit, with recommendations to focus on companies like Wolong Materials, Jingda Co., and others [23]. - Advanced packaging: The industry chain is expected to see accelerated growth due to major semiconductor manufacturers' continued investment in advanced packaging [23]. 2. Market Review - During the week of December 23-27, the A-share Shenwan Electronics Index fell by 0.66%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.01 percentage points [76]. - The performance of the Shenwan electronic secondary industry was mixed, with components rising by 1.32% and electronic chemicals II falling by 3.69% [10][47]. 3. Industry News - SK Hynix received a direct subsidy of 458 million USD from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support its AI chip packaging facility in Indiana [15][30]. - Longxin Technology announced that it is providing the latest VR Quest3 display module for Meta and is accelerating production expansion [18][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from the national housing and urban construction work meeting held on December 24, 2024, which emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development in housing and urban construction [7][15]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing housing supply systems and increasing the supply of affordable housing to meet the rigid housing demands of urban residents [12][41]. - The report suggests that the real estate market is likely to stabilize, with expectations for further optimization of restrictive policies in core cities and continued improvement in policies related to urban village renovations [15][17]. Market Review - The A-share construction materials index fell by 0.59% during the week of December 23-27, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.95 percentage points [18]. - Among the sub-sectors, the decoration materials sector performed well with a 1.08% increase, while the cement sector declined by 1.91% [22]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic glass fiber market saw a price increase of 100-200 yuan per ton for mainstream products as of December 27, 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 16.93% [7][28]. - Cement prices have shown a downward trend, with the average price for bagged cement at 349.88 yuan per ton, down 0.32% from the previous month [30][58]. - The floating glass market experienced a slight price adjustment, with the average price at 1408.62 yuan per ton, down 1.73% month-on-month and 29.92% year-on-year [31][75]. Company Dynamics - The report highlights significant stock performance, with companies like Huayi Co. and Ningbo Fuda showing substantial increases of 92.65% and 77.4% respectively since the beginning of the year [26][27]. - Conversely, companies such as ST Shentian and Jingan Photovoltaic faced significant declines of -72.83% and -50.69% respectively [26][27].

Investment Rating - The automotive industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [42]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a 0.69% increase from December 23 to December 27, 2024, outperforming the overall A-share market, ranking 7th among 31 primary industries [1][69]. - Passenger car sales in November 2024 reached approximately 3.001 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [3][41]. - The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) saw a market share of about 45.6% in November 2024, with NEV sales reaching approximately 1.512 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.4% [32][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The automotive market is expected to see stable growth in consumer demand due to supportive policies [41]. - Price competition in the NEV segment has cooled, with significant price reductions observed across various vehicle types [41]. 2. Market Review - The commercial vehicle segment saw the highest increase of 2.46%, while the automotive services sector experienced a decline of 6.74% during the same period [2][46]. 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1. Monthly Vehicle Sales - Total automotive sales in November 2024 were approximately 3.316 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [56]. 3.2. Weekly Vehicle Sales - From December 1 to December 22, 2024, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.692 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% [34]. 3.3. Sales Outlook - The retail market for passenger vehicles in December 2024 is projected to be around 2.7 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [35]. 3.4. Raw Material Price Tracking - As of December 27, 2024, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was approximately 75,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from December 20, 2024 [36][41]. 4. Industry Dynamics - Notable industry developments include BYD's launch of its advanced driver assistance system and partnerships among major automotive companies for charging networks [69]. 5. New Vehicle Launches - New models such as Chery's Tiggo 5x, Denza D9 EV, and NIO's ET9 were launched during the week of December 21 to December 27, 2024 [69]. 6. Company Dynamics - Companies like Yinchuan Technology and Chuanhuan Technology received significant orders for their products, indicating ongoing demand in the sector [11][69].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3]. Core Insights - Micron has reduced its NAND flash memory capacity utilization by 10% in response to a slowdown in market demand. The average price fluctuation for NAND particles ranged from -1.27% to 3.17%, with an average change of 0.41% [3][21]. - Kioxia has announced the development of OCTRAM technology, a new type of 4F² DRAM that significantly reduces power consumption, which is expected to benefit applications such as artificial intelligence and IoT products [3][28]. - The overall market performance remains stable, with some short-term price increases observed in low-capacity embedded products due to supply constraints [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Price Tracking of Storage Chips - The price fluctuation for NAND flash memory particles was noted, with 11 items stable, 9 items increasing, and 2 items decreasing in price [3]. - The average price changes for DRAM products showed a range of 2.45% to 3.12%, with a slight average decrease of -0.10% [3]. 2. Industry News - The market is experiencing a differentiation in pricing, particularly for low-capacity eMMC products, which are seeing price increases due to supply tightness [21]. - Micron's NAND business reported revenues of $2.2 billion for the first fiscal quarter, reflecting an 82% year-over-year increase but a 5% quarter-over-quarter decline [22]. 3. Company Dynamics - Marvell has launched a customized HBM computing architecture aimed at enhancing XPU performance and efficiency, collaborating with major HBM manufacturers [24][28]. - Dongxin Co. has indicated that the rapid development of the AI market is driving strong demand for storage, with a focus on improving product performance and market share [30]. 4. Company Announcements - Key announcements from companies in the storage industry include updates on funding and board changes, reflecting ongoing strategic adjustments [33][35].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - In the context of high international oil prices, the petrochemical sector has four main investment themes: 1) Energy state-owned enterprises are actively promoting oil and gas reserves and production, continuing to deepen refining and chemical transformation, and steadily advancing green and low-carbon transitions. Companies to watch include China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [11][74] 2) Global upstream capital expenditure is increasing, driving the oil service sector's continued improvement. Companies to focus on include China Oilfield Services, CNOOC Engineering, and Zhongman Petroleum [11][74] 3) With the significant slowdown in capacity growth in the filament industry, the supply-demand balance is expected to improve. Companies to consider are Xinfengming and Tongkun [11][74] 4) Refining companies are actively planning new capacities while accelerating the layout of new material projects. Companies to watch include Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical [11][74] Market Performance - The CITIC Petrochemical sector rose approximately 2.51% during the week of December 23-27, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by about 0.95%, by approximately 1.56 percentage points [2][57] - Key stocks that led the gains in the petrochemical sector included Heshun Petroleum, Donghua Energy, China Petroleum, CNOOC Development, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [2][57] - The weekly performance of private refining companies included Xinfengming (+4.16%), Tongkun (+2.21%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+1.49%), Hengli Petrochemical (+0.59%), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.55%) [2][22] Upstream Sector - International oil prices saw an increase last week, with Brent crude futures settling at approximately $74.17 per barrel, a weekly increase of about 1.69%, and WTI crude futures at approximately $70.60 per barrel, up about 1.64% [23][24] - According to EIA data, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by approximately 4.24 million barrels week-on-week as of December 20, while strategic oil reserves increased by about 260,000 barrels [62][63] Oil Service Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America remained stable week-on-week but showed a significant year-on-year decline. The global number of drilling platforms increased in the third quarter, benefiting the oil service companies [38][63] Midstream Refining Sector - The Singapore diesel price spread decreased by approximately $0.6 per barrel, while the gasoline price spread increased by about $0.7 per barrel. The price spreads for ethylene and naphtha decreased by approximately $13 per ton and for PX and naphtha by about $17 per ton [40][66] Terminal Polyester Sector - As of December 27, the POY price spread was approximately 1102 RMB/ton, with an increase of about 15 RMB/ton week-on-week. Overall inventory accumulation was observed in the polyester filament sector [44][45] C3 Sector - As of December 27, the market price for acrylic acid in Shandong was approximately 7550 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of about 2.72%. The price spread between acrylic acid and propane was approximately 3190 RMB/ton, up about 8.21% [72]

Group 1 - The report indicates that during the week of December 19-25, the A-share market experienced a slight decrease in margin trading balance and a decline in trading activity. The major indices showed a mixed performance in PE valuation percentiles, with the Shanghai 180 index leading the gains [60][35][53] - The financial sector saw the largest increase in PE valuation percentiles, while the consumer services sector experienced the most significant decline [60][27][13] Group 2 - The banking industry led the gains in valuation percentiles, with an increase of 7.2 percentage points, while the consumer services sector saw a decline of 9.3 percentage points [27][13][14] - The report highlights that the overall PE valuation percentiles for various industries mostly declined, with the banking sector showing resilience and growth [13][14][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (Maintain) [4] Core Viewpoints - Xiaomi's active user base has reached nearly 700 million, with a continuous expansion of its ecosystem. The global monthly active users have surpassed 686 million, and the smartphone market share has remained in the top three globally for 17 consecutive quarters. The global smartphone shipment is expected to increase by 23.5 million units year-on-year, with high-end smartphone sales projected to grow by 43% in 2024 [14] - Xiaomi's IoT platform has connected 860 million devices, solidifying its position as the largest consumer IoT platform globally. The Mi Home app has surpassed 100 million monthly active users, and Xiaomi has established a complete "human-vehicle-home ecosystem" [14] - Xiaomi plans to invest over 100 billion yuan in R&D over the next five years, focusing on AI, OS, and chip technologies. The R&D expenditure is expected to reach 24 billion yuan in 2024 and 30 billion yuan in 2025 [14] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xiaomi Group, Huace Navigation, Meige Intelligent, Guanghetong, and ZTE, as the "human-vehicle-home ecosystem" conference is expected to benefit Xiaomi's supply chain, computing power industry, and intelligent driving industry [15] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [4] Xiaomi's Ecosystem and Market Position - Xiaomi's global monthly active users have exceeded 686 million, with a smartphone market share in the top three for 17 consecutive quarters. The expected year-on-year growth in global smartphone shipments is 23.5 million units, and high-end smartphone sales are projected to grow by 43% in 2024 [14] - The IoT platform has connected 860 million devices, with the Mi Home app achieving over 100 million monthly active users, completing the "human-vehicle-home ecosystem" [14] R&D Investment - Xiaomi's R&D investment is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan over five years, with 24 billion yuan expected in 2024 and 30 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on AI, OS, and chip technologies [14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Xiaomi Group, Huace Navigation, Meige Intelligent, Guanghetong, and ZTE due to the positive outlook for the supply chain and related industries [15]