固定收益/固收点评 | --- | |-------| | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | 更加关注内需和科创 —— 2024 年中央经济工作会议点评 | | | | 事件： 2024 年 12 月 11 日至 12 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行， 会议对 2024 年经济工作进 ...

宏观研究/宏观点评专题 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 把握政策取向，讲求时机力度 ——中央经济工作会议解读 ◼ 核心观点 12 月 11 日至 12 日，中央经济工作会议召开。我们发现此次会议不仅 总结了 2024 年经济工作，分析了当前的问题，部署了 2025 年的发展 目标，还提出了"五个统筹"的指导思想和"五个针对"的工作要求。 一、我们认为，2025 年的目标可以总结为"六稳"：稳预期、稳经济、 稳就业、稳物价、稳楼市、稳股市。 二、"五个统筹好"：必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系、总供给 和总需求的关系、培育新动能和更新旧动能的关系、做优增量和盘活 存量的关系、提升质量和做大总量的关系。我们认为，"五个统筹好" 充分体现了中国经济转型升级时期的系统性。对应到投资层面，我们 提示应树立辩证思维、动态思维、系统思维，避免单边预期。 三、"五个针对"：包括针对需求不足的突出症结、针对制约发展的深 层次障碍和外部挑战，针对产业转型升级的瓶颈制约、针对企业经营 中的关切诉求、针对重点领域风险隐患。我们认为，"五个针对"指出 了经济问题的关键，精准回应市场关切，有助于市场预期进一步改 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and improved profitability, with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024 [3][24]. - The company is a leading player in the powder metallurgy industry, focusing on three main technology platforms: Powder Pressing and Sintering (P&S), Soft Magnetic Composite (SMC), and Metal Injection Molding (MIM) [13][30]. - The MIM segment is expected to continue contributing positively, particularly with the growth of the foldable smartphone market [3][24]. - The company has made strategic investments, including acquiring a stake in a company specializing in titanium alloys, which is expected to enhance its MIM business [45][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer in the powder metallurgy sector, recognized for its P&S, SMC, and MIM technologies [13][30]. - It serves various industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, and renewable energy, with a focus on high-performance materials [13][30]. 2. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.50%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 431.53% [3][24]. - The automotive parts segment accounted for 75.72% of P&S revenue, while SMC revenue showed signs of recovery after a decline [3][24][26]. 3. MIM Business Growth - The global MIM market is projected to grow from 25.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 50.2 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 10.7% [3][24]. - The company has established production lines for foldable smartphone components, anticipating a 30% CAGR in foldable smartphone shipments from 2024 to 2028 [3][24]. 4. SMC and P&S Business Development - The SMC market is expected to grow from 4.321 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.068 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of about 5.82% [3][24]. - The company has successfully expanded its SMC production capacity to 70,000 tons per year and is actively developing new high-performance materials [3][24]. 5. Strategic Investments - The company acquired a 10% stake in Shenzhen Xiaoxiang Electric, enhancing its capabilities in electric motor technology [45][48]. - It also invested in a new materials company focused on titanium alloys, which is expected to support its MIM business development [49].

电力设备 行业研究/行业专题 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 专 题 行业需求上行，整机环节盈利改善 ——风电行业 2024 年三季报总结 ◼ 核心观点 风电装机需求稳健，国内风机招标量高增。根据国家能源局，2024 年 前三季度国内风电新增装机 39.12GW，同比增长 16.8%；其中陆上风 电新增 36.65GW，海上风电新增 2.47GW。根据金风科技业绩演示材 料，2024 年前三季度国内公开市场风机新增招标量 119.1GW，同比增 长 93.0%；其中陆上新增招标量 111.5GW，海上新增招标量 7.6GW。 总览：风电板块盈利能力承压。2024Q3【SW 风电设备】营业收入 507.07 亿元，同比增长 0.62%/环比增长 9.80%；归母净利润 13.19 亿元，同 比下滑 34.87%/环比下滑 48.60%。2024Q3【SW 风电设备】毛利率/净 利率分别为 14.60%/2.83%，同比分别下滑 2.48/1.23pct，环比分别下滑 1.46/2.76pct。 行业现金流承压，存货规模新高。2024Q3【SW 风电设备】经营性净 现金额为 29.29 亿元，同比 ...

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石油石化 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 OPEC+延长减产，上游板块有望受益 ——石油化工行业周报（20241202-20241206） ◼ 市场行情回顾 市场表现 本周（20241202-20241206）中信石油石化板块上涨约 1.99%，上证综 合指数上涨约 2.33%，同上证综合指数相比，石油石化板块落后约 0.35 个百分点。子板块方面，石油石化子板块以上涨为主，其中油田服务、 油品销售及仓储、石油开采等子板块涨幅居前。 本周（20241202-20241206）石油石化板块领涨个股包括统一股份、和 顺石油、惠博普、*ST 海越、石化油服等；领跌个股包括蒙泰高新、 东华能源、东方盛虹、洲际油气等。其中民营大炼化公司周度涨跌幅 如下：桐昆股份（+4.85%）、恒力石化（+1.11%）、新凤鸣（+0.63%）、 恒逸石化（+0.32%）、荣盛石化（+0.1%）、东方盛虹（-0.94%）等。 ◼ 核心观点 上游板块方面，上周国际油价有所下跌。从周度数据以及 EIA 短期展 望数据来看，尽管未来两年美国原油产量维持增长，但是国际油价重 心仍有望维持在相对高位，持 ...

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计算机 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 OpenAI：完整版 o1 推理模型登场 ——全球 AI 产业跟踪（2024.12.2-2024.12.6) ◼ 核心观点 OpenAI：完整版 o1 推理模型登场、200 美元/月的 ChatGPTPro 订阅 亮相 据 IT 之家，Open AI 近日启动了为期 12 天的"shipmas"新品发布周 期，将推出一系列新功能、新产品以及相关演示。在本次活动首日， OpenAI 推出了完整版 o1 模型，并新增了月费为 200 美元的 ChatGPTPro 订阅。ChatGPT Pro 订阅服务用户还可以独家享受特别版 本 o1 模型，该版本使用更多计算资源来为最难的问题提供最佳答案。 NVIDIA：GB300 服务器或 2025 年亮相 据 IT 之 家 援 引 WccfTech ，英伟达计划在 2025 年年中推出 "BlackwellUltra"GB300AI 服务器，采用"全水冷"散热方案，并预 计带来更强悍的性能。 Google：DeepMind 推出 Genie2 模型，可生成长达 1 分钟游戏世界 据 IT 之 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the North American cloud vendors [2]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, the total capital expenditure (CapEx) of four North American cloud vendors (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) reached $57.52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.61% [12][14]. - The CapEx guidance from these companies indicates a positive outlook for future investments, with Microsoft expecting quarterly increases, Google maintaining its Q4 levels, Amazon projecting a rise in 2025 CapEx, and Meta raising its 2024 CapEx forecast to between $38-40 billion [12][14][63]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Q3 2024 CapEx Overview - The combined CapEx of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta for Q3 2024 was $57.52 billion, a 60.61% increase year-on-year [12][14]. - Microsoft’s CapEx for FY25Q1 reached $20 billion, with expectations for quarterly increases [17][34]. - Google’s Q3 CapEx was approximately $13 billion, with guidance for Q4 to remain stable [49]. - Amazon's 2024 CapEx guidance is around $75 billion, primarily directed towards AWS-related infrastructure [56][63]. - Meta has adjusted its FY24 CapEx lower limit upwards, anticipating significant growth in FY25 CapEx [68][75]. Section 2: AI Empowerment and Business Growth - Microsoft’s AI business is projected to exceed $10 billion in annual revenue by FY25Q2, driven by operational efficiency and new growth [14][21]. - Google’s AI initiatives have improved customer operational efficiency, with a 30% increase in product usage among existing clients [14][39]. - Amazon's AWS AI business is experiencing triple-digit year-on-year growth, with annual revenues reaching billions [58][60]. - Meta's AI efforts are enhancing user retention and monetization rates, with a notable increase in revenue from its Family of Apps [71][73].

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