Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in the industry driven by policy shifts that boost market confidence, with the brokerage sector expected to show strong beta characteristics and an annual excess return of 19.6% in 2024 [4] - The brokerage sector's performance is anticipated to improve further in 2025, with a projected year-on-year profit growth of 10.3% [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market & Fundamental Review - The brokerage sector index saw a cumulative increase of 29.6% in 2024, outperforming the broader market by 19.6% [10] - The sector's performance was notably boosted after the announcement of monetary policy easing on September 24, leading to a rapid recovery in the price-to-book ratio from approximately 1.0X to a peak of 1.7X [10] - Internet brokerages and high-performing stocks led the market rally, benefiting from increased trading volumes [10] 2. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the investment side reforms will accelerate, with expectations of continued liquidity easing, keeping the capital market active [4][44] - The introduction of long-term funds is expected to enhance the institutionalization and productization of the market, providing opportunities for brokerage wealth management businesses [4] 3. Investment Lines and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main stock selection themes: policies supporting stable real estate and stock markets, the impact of mergers and acquisitions on competition, and the potential for strong performance from fixed-income businesses in the upcoming earnings season [4] - Specific brokerage firms to watch include Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, GF Securities, and First Capital [4] 4. Performance Review - The brokerage sector's performance improved significantly in 2024, with a projected year-on-year profit growth of 16.1% for the full year [13] - The investment income for listed brokerages reached 1,317 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 28.1% increase year-on-year [18] 5. Business Breakdown - The investment business has become the primary driver of performance, contributing over 50% to revenue, while other segments like investment banking faced significant pressure [18] - The report notes a decline in revenues from brokerage, asset management, and investment banking, with investment income showing substantial growth [18] 6. Cost and Profitability - The brokerage sector's profit margin improved to 34.5% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by cost-cutting measures [19] - Management expenses decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, contributing to the overall profitability of the sector [19] 7. Asset Situation - Total assets of listed brokerages reached 12.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, primarily driven by an increase in client margin deposits [23] - The report indicates a slowdown in overall asset expansion, with a focus on improving capital efficiency [26] 8. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights an increasing concentration of profits among top brokerages, with the top three and five firms capturing 37.5% and 51.2% of profits, respectively [35] - The competitive landscape is expected to further favor leading brokerages due to regulatory support for mergers and acquisitions [40] 9. Profit Forecast - The report forecasts a year-on-year profit increase of 16.1% for 2024 and 10.3% for 2025 for listed brokerages, based on various assumptions including a 4.4% increase in average daily trading volume [83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [1][44]. Core Insights - The AI investment theme is crucial, focusing on opportunities in the Internet of Things (IoT) [1]. - The global AI infrastructure market is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2028, with significant growth in capital expenditures from international cloud providers [4][13]. - The satellite networking process is accelerating, with a focus on value increments in supporting sectors [4][31]. - The IoT market in China is projected to approach $300 billion by 2027, accounting for about a quarter of global IoT investments [4][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The communication sector outperformed, with the A-share Shenwan Communication Index rising by 28.82% in 2024, significantly outpacing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [7]. - The communication network equipment and devices sector led the gains with a 48.42% increase [8]. AI Catalysis and Market Growth - Continuous growth in capital expenditures from cloud providers is driving demand for AI infrastructure, with Amazon's Q3 capital spending up 81% year-on-year [10]. - The global optical module market is expected to surpass $10 billion in 2024, with a 3.1% year-on-year growth in 2023 [13]. - The copper high-speed connector market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025 and 200 billion yuan by 2028 [17]. Operator Performance and Dividend Yield - Major operators show stable performance with increasing dividend yields, attracting long-term capital [4][26]. - In 2023, China Mobile's dividend yield was 4.43%, China Telecom's was 4.31%, and China Unicom's was 3.01% [26]. Satellite Networking Acceleration - The "Thousand Sails Constellation" project aims to launch over 14,000 low-orbit satellites by 2030, enhancing global network coverage [32]. - The GW constellation plans to deploy 12,992 satellites, with significant launches expected by 2030 [32]. Embracing the IoT Era - The Chinese IoT spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.2% over five years, surpassing $300 billion by 2027 [40]. - The global number of IoT devices is projected to reach 41 billion by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential [40].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of political economics in China's investment landscape, highlighting that the Chinese stock market is closely tied to government policy direction, which influences economic development and fiscal revenue sources [4][7]. - The report identifies a significant opportunity in the development of new productive forces driven by technological innovation, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and humanoid robots, supported by local government investment funds [4][7]. - The rise of institutional investment is expected to drive passive capital inflows, with state-owned entities investing in broad-based ETFs, providing market support and guiding wealth allocation among residents [4][7]. Group 2 - The report notes a recovery in the manufacturing sector, with the October PMI rising to 50.1%, indicating a positive trend in production activities, particularly among large and medium-sized enterprises [10][13]. - Consumer market indicators show improvement, with retail sales growth accelerating to 4.8% year-on-year in October, and infrastructure and manufacturing investments continuing to increase [13][16]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in the electronics sector, with a year-on-year profit growth rate exceeding 20%, indicating strong performance and recovery momentum in this industry [16][19]. Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the real estate sector's downturn on the overall economy and fiscal health, noting that real estate investment has been declining since its peak in 2021, which has slowed economic recovery [26][27]. - It points out that local government debt levels are rising, with the scale of urban investment platform debt increasing significantly, raising concerns about financial stability [31][32]. - The report outlines a series of monetary and fiscal policy measures aimed at stabilizing the economy and revitalizing capital markets, including interest rate cuts and support for the real estate sector [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the solar power equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The global photovoltaic market demand is projected to reach 492-568 GW in 2025, representing a growth of 5-7% compared to 2024 [4][11]. - The supply of polysilicon is expected to be in surplus in 2024, leading to price declines, but a recovery is anticipated if downstream demand improves post-Spring Festival [4]. - The N-type battery technology has surpassed 80% market share, with ongoing efficiency improvements expected [4][39]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies such as GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar [4]. Summary by Sections 01 Supply-Side Reform and Emerging Markets - Domestic photovoltaic installations are steadily increasing, with a total of 206.3 GW added from January to November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.88% [11]. - Emerging markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia are expected to drive new demand, supported by favorable policies [4][20]. - The U.S. tariff policies are impacting the market, with significant increases in tariffs on Chinese solar products [16]. 02 Main Material Profitability and Technology Iteration - Polysilicon prices have dropped significantly due to oversupply, with major companies reducing production to manage inventory levels [31]. - The silicon wafer segment is facing severe losses, with utilization rates below 70% [32]. - N-type technology is gaining traction, with potential for further efficiency improvements [39]. 03 Photovoltaic Glass and Silver Paste Developments - The inventory pressure for photovoltaic glass is easing, leading to price increases [55]. - The industry is moving towards less silver usage in production, with copper paste being introduced as a cost-saving measure [63]. 04 Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and others for potential investment opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery with simultaneous increases in both volume and price [1] - New technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium batteries are emerging, each with promising prospects [4] - Supply and demand are tight, with leading companies maintaining high market shares [5] - Prices have been declining for two consecutive years and are now at a bottom level [5] - The investment outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by improving downstream demand and a lag in supply release [5] Summary by Sections Volume: Supply and Demand Tightness - Global lithium battery shipments are expected to reach approximately 1,926 GWh in 2025, with a growth rate of 25% [10] - The projected global shipments for power batteries, energy storage batteries, and consumer batteries in 2025 are 1,494 GWh, 520 GWh, and 110 GWh respectively [12][18] - The top ten companies accounted for 90% of the power battery installation volume from January to October 2024 [87] Price: Declining Prices at Bottom Levels - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped to 76,000 yuan/ton as of December 27, 2024 [94] - The price of battery cells has decreased from 0.95 yuan/Wh at the end of January 2023 to 0.38 yuan/Wh by the end of June 2024 [5][106] Materials: Price Trends - The overall trend for materials in 2024 shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price [5] - For example, the production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) increased from 99,000 tons in January 2024 to 284,000 tons in December 2024, while the price fell from 43,000 yuan/ton to 33,000 yuan/ton [5] New Technologies: Diverse Prospects - Various new technologies are being developed, including solid-state batteries and sodium batteries, which are expected to have significant market potential [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies across various segments, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [5] - It also highlights solid-state battery companies such as Guansheng Co. and Sanxiang New Materials as potential investment opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the wind power industry [1]. Core Insights - The domestic market is experiencing significant growth in land-based wind power bidding and accelerated offshore wind installations, with land-based wind power bids increasing by 93% year-on-year to 119.1GW in the first three quarters of 2024 [5][15]. - The overseas market, particularly in Europe, is expected to see substantial growth in offshore wind installations, with a projected CAGR of 25.27% from 2024 to 2033 [29][32]. - Domestic wind turbine manufacturers are recovering profitability and expanding their international business, with a 345% year-on-year increase in international orders [5][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Market - The domestic wind power market is set for continued growth, with land-based wind power installations reaching 36.65GW in 2024, a 14.4% increase year-on-year [9]. - Offshore wind projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong are progressing, with expectations of nearly 18GW of new offshore capacity by 2025 [21][23]. 2. Wind Turbines - The domestic wind turbine market is seeing a recovery in profitability, with major manufacturers signing a self-discipline agreement to stabilize market conditions [44][50]. - The average price of land-based wind turbines has stabilized and is showing signs of recovery, which is expected to improve the profitability of turbine manufacturers [49][50]. 3. Submarine Cables - Domestic demand for high-voltage submarine cables is increasing, with several projects expected to enter a sustained delivery phase [5][61]. - Leading domestic submarine cable companies are likely to benefit from overseas demand, with significant order backlogs reported [5]. 4. Components - The demand for components is expected to rise due to the increasing bidding for wind turbines, with some large-scale components likely to see price increases [5]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: companies benefiting from domestic offshore and international market demand, turbine manufacturers with stabilizing profitability, and component manufacturers poised for recovery [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [5][7]. Core Insights - The total sales of passenger cars in China are expected to reach 28.09 million units by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 2% [1]. - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to exceed 15.5 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 25% [1][39]. - The market share of domestic brands is increasing, with a cumulative sales growth of 23.02% for domestic passenger cars from January to November 2024 [2][41]. - The automotive industry is experiencing accelerated upgrades in smart technology, with a focus on full-domain intelligence and the integration of various smart systems [3][64]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Domestic Brand Growth - Cumulative wholesale sales of passenger cars in China from January to November 2024 reached 24.115 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [25]. - Cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars during the same period reached 10.716 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 38.1% [29]. - The market share of domestic brands increased from 62.19% in January 2024 to 69.88% in November 2024 [46]. 2. Accelerated Smart Vehicle Development - The automotive industry is transitioning to an AI-driven smart vehicle 2.0 era, focusing on full-domain intelligence [3][64]. - The penetration rate of L2.5 and above ADAS vehicles is expected to rise from approximately 7.1% in 2023 to about 11% by mid-2024 [3]. - Major companies are integrating smart driving, smart cockpit, and intelligent chassis technologies to enhance user experience [3][66]. 3. Emergence of Humanoid Robotics - The humanoid robotics industry is in its nascent stage, with automotive companies entering the market due to high reuse rates and cost advantages [3]. - By 2029, the humanoid robotics market in China is expected to reach 75 billion yuan, capturing 32.7% of the global market [3]. 4. Lightweight Materials and New Processes - The application of magnesium alloys in vehicles is projected to grow rapidly, with current usage at approximately 0.3%, significantly lower than aluminum alloys at 8%-10% [4]. - The economic viability of magnesium alloys is highlighted, especially as their prices fall below those of aluminum alloys [4]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies leading in smart technology and those benefiting from vehicle replacement policies, recommending companies like Leap Motor and BYD [5]. - It also highlights opportunities in low-penetration sectors such as smart technology, humanoid robotics, and lightweight materials, recommending companies like Hengshuai Co. and Xingyuan Zhuomei [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electronics industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The "AI+" trend is expected to lead a new wave of innovation in consumer electronics, with AI glasses anticipated to surpass TWS headphones as the next popular terminal, potentially exceeding a market size of 100 billion [1][32] - The semiconductor industry is focusing on "AI + self-control," with GPGPU and ASIC technologies driving rapid development in computing chips and related supply chains [2][45] - The "AI + storage/test" segment is projected to facilitate the recovery of the semiconductor industry, with significant growth expected in the advanced packaging market [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Electronic Sector Review - The electronic sector has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 18.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.84 percentage points [18][21] 2. "AI + Terminal" Leading Consumer Electronics Innovation - AI glasses are expected to become a major product, integrating multiple functions and potentially reaching a market size of 106.78 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 18.56% from 2023 to 2029 [1][32] - AI headphones are projected to accelerate replacement cycles, with the market size expected to grow from 7.32 billion to 164.68 billion from 2024 to 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 117.80% [1][38] 3. "AI + Self-Control" in Semiconductor Development - The AI chip market in China is expected to reach 144.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 79.90% from 2018 to 2023 [2][48] - The domestic production ratio of semiconductor equipment has increased from 21% in 2021 to 35% in 2023, indicating a trend towards self-sufficiency [2] 4. "AI + Storage/Test" Driving Semiconductor Recovery - The global semiconductor storage market is projected to grow from approximately 84.28 billion USD in 2023 to 204.68 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.10% [3] - The advanced packaging market in mainland China is expected to reach approximately 113.7 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 29.9% from 2021 to 2025 [3] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the "AI + terminal" supply chain, particularly in AI glasses and headphones, with recommended companies including Yutong Optical, Gree Electric, and GoerTek [4][5] - For the "AI + self-control" segment, companies like Cambricon, Hygon, and Loongson Technology are highlighted [4] - In the "AI + storage/test" area, recommended companies include Dongxin Semiconductor and Neoway Technology [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 subsidy policy for replacing old products is expected to continue, benefiting leading companies significantly. The Ministry of Finance has allocated approximately 150 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support local implementation of the replacement policy. Furniture retail sales increased by 10.5% year-on-year in November, with a continuous month-on-month improvement for three months. The Minister of Finance indicated that the scope and variety of the replacement policy will be expanded in 2025, suggesting a high probability of continuation [3][18][21]. - The short-term uncertainty in furniture exports is due to anticipated tariffs, while a long-term interest rate cut in the U.S. is expected to stimulate demand for home furnishings. The U.S. is the largest furniture import market, with imports amounting to 72.8159 billion USD in 2022. As of November 2024, Chinese furniture exports reached approximately 60.859 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 6.20% [3][37][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The home furnishing industry has underperformed the market, with a cumulative decline of 1.92% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 2.22%. Notable companies like Mu Si and Xi Lin Men showed varying performance, with Mu Si increasing by 34.15% year-to-date [11][15]. 2. Replacement Subsidy Policy - The replacement subsidy policy is expected to drive retail sales significantly, with estimates suggesting that the subsidy could boost retail sales by 556 to 778 billion yuan, accounting for 8% to 11% of the industry [21][24]. - Leading companies are likely to benefit more from the subsidy due to their extensive store networks and the barriers set for retail qualification under the policy. The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with the CR6 market share rising from 6% in 2019 to 10% in 2023 [29][30]. 3. Export Recovery - The U.S. furniture market is experiencing high inventory levels among wholesalers, which may affect short-term export performance. However, the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are anticipated to stimulate the real estate market and subsequently boost demand for home furnishings [41][45]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities are recommended for investment, as they are better positioned to navigate the current export challenges. For instance, companies like Jiangxin Home and Tianzhen Co. have established significant production bases in Vietnam and the U.S. [48]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the subsidy policy and have relatively low valuations, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home. Additionally, companies linked to the export chain, like Jiangxin Home and Mengbaihe, are also highlighted for potential investment [4][50].

证券研究报告 2025年1月1日 行业：石油石化 增持（维持） ◼ 1）国际油价有望延续高位震荡，同时，能源央企大力推动油气增储上产 ，稳步推进绿色低碳转型，建议关注中国石油、中国海油等。 ◼ 2）海洋油气投资加快，油服板块景气上行，同时，随着技术崛起及"一 带一路"战略的推动，海外拓展有望加速，建议关注中海油服、海油工程 等。 ◼ 3）在能源安全及政策推动下，新疆煤化工项目及天然气等资源开发提速 ，建议关注宝丰能源、新天然气等。 ◼ 4）炼化企业依托于一体化平台布局石化新材料，叠加产品价差修复预期 ，景气向上可期，建议关注卫星化学、恒力石化等 目录/Contents 01 02 03 04 国际油价高位震荡，利好上游高股息板块 海洋油气投资加快，油服板块景气上行 投资建议及风险提示 多元布局叠加价差修复，炼化景气向上可期 05 新疆资源开发提速，看好天然气与煤化工板块 上游格局向好，下游景气修复 ——2025年石油化工行业投资策略 分析师：赵飞 Tel: E-mail: zhaofei@yongxingsec.com SAC编号：S1760524040002 主要观点 ◼ 风险提示：油价大幅波动风险，需求不 ...