我们认为，DeepSeek 有望通过技术创新降低成本，推广全球 AI 端侧应用。智能 体设备集成人工智能技术，通过语音交互和大模型 AI 助手，为用户提供更加便捷 丰富的体验。当前 AI 终端（眼镜/耳机）市场正处于快速增长的前夜，随着产品 不断迭代更新，需求逐步攀升，相关产业链有望持续受益。在算力方面，DeepSeek 等国产大模型蓬勃发展有望加速推动国产算力硬件产业链持续受益，叠加"AI+ "应用或将推动推理算力需求持续攀升，相关产业链有望持续受益。 ◼ 投资建议 电子 行业研究/行业点评 b DeepSeek 有望推动 AI 应用加速落地， AI 端侧与国产算力需求或迎提速 ◼ 事件描述 根据科创板日报报道，2024 年 12 月 26 日，幻方量化宣布，全新系列模型 DeepSeek- V3 上线并同步开源，API 服务已同步更新，接口配置无需改动。 ◼ 核心观点 幻方量化旗下 DeepSeek 上线 V3 版本，成本低性能优秀。DeepSeek-V3 为自研 MoE 模型，生成速度相比 V2.5 模型实现了 3 倍的提升，但暂不支持多模态输入 输出。在参数和性能方面，DeepSeek-V3 拥有 6 ...

策略研究/策略周报 1 月新发股票型基金份额同比增长显著 ——流动性 1 月第 3 期 ◼ 核心观点 上周（1.13-1.17）2 年期、10 年期国债收益率均上行；美国 10 年国债 收益率回落，美元指数下行，中美 10 年国债利差边际收窄；上周融资 买入额回升，南下累计净流入持续走高。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（1.13-1.17），2 年期、10 年期国债收益率均上行，10 年期 与 2 年期国债利差收窄。上周央行公开市场净投放 5789 亿元，MLF 净回笼 9950 亿元。 国外：上周（1.13-1.17）10 年期美债收益率回落，美元指数小幅回落， 中美 10 年期国债利差边际收窄。上周 10 年期美债收益率回落至 4.61%，美元指数降至 109.38。截至 1 月 17 日，中美 10 年期国债利 差收窄至-2.95%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2025 年 1 月新成立 51 只基金，其中 28 只为股票型基金。 截至 1 月 17 日，2025 年 1 月新成立基金 51 只，24 年 1 月为 94 只； 其中，1 月新成立股票型基金 28 只，发行总额约 120 亿份，而 2024 ...

计算机 行业研究/行业点评 DeepSeek 开启模型平权时代，AI 应用前景可期 ——计算机行业点评 ◼ 事件概述 据 IT 之家，近日深度求索正式发布 DeekSeek-V3 及 DeepSeek-R1 模 型并同步开源，前者为 6710 亿参数的专家混合模型，性能比肩 GPT- 4o 和 Claude-3.5-Sonnet 等世界顶尖闭源模型；后者在数学、代码、自 然语言推理等任务上，性能比肩 OpenAI o1 正式版，其 API 定价为每 百万输入 tokens 1 元（缓存命中）/4 元（缓存未命中），每百万输出 tokens 16 元。 ◼ 核心观点 据 《 DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning》（DeepSeek-AI,2025），R1 是基于 R1-Zero 迭 代而来，后者基于 V3-Base 作为基础模型，并采用 GRPO 作为 RL 框 架，未经过监督微调（supervised fine-tuning，SFT）作为预处理步骤， 仍展现了卓越的推理能力。R1 在 ...

——情绪与估值 1 月第 2 期 ◼ 核心观点：上周（1.9-1.15）A 股市场两融余额小幅减少，活跃度整 体下降。主要指数 PE 估值分位涨跌互现，其中上证 180 领跌，深证成指 领涨。主要风格 PE 估值分位涨跌互现，其中成长风格涨幅较大。全行业 机械行业估值分位数领涨，家电领跌。 情绪：两融余额小幅减少，市场活跃度整体下降 估值：指数 PE 估值分位涨跌互现，成长风格领涨，机械行业领涨 ◼ 风险提示 上市公司业绩不及预期、市场波动超预期、海外经济增速不及预期。 策略研究/策略周报 创业板指成交额小幅上行，成长风格估值分位数 回升 日期： yxzqdatemark 2025年02月05日 分析 唐文卿 师： E- mail ： tangwenqing@yongxingsec. com SAC 编号： S1760524050001 相关报告： 《务天时，则财生》 ——2025 年 01 月 11 日 《1 月金股：握大势，聚新 质》 ——2024 年 12 月 30 日 《宁波增长双引擎：优质制造 与新兴未来》 ——2024 年 12 月 26 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 研 策 略 周 报 究 ...

信贷有望迎来"开门红" ——12 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 固定收益/固收点评 事件：2025 年 1 月 14 日，央行公布 2024 年金融统计数据：广义货币 M2 同比增长 7.3%，高于前值 0.2 个百分点；狭义货币 M1 同比下降 1.4%，增速回升 2.3 个百分点。2024 年末社会融资规模存量同比增长 8%；2024 年全年社会融资规模增量累计为 32.26 万亿元，比上年少 3.32 万亿元。 政府融资成为社融超预期重要支撑。12 月社融同比增速为 8.00%，较 前值回升 0.2 个百分点；12 月新增社融初值为 28,575 亿元，高于万得 一致预测，较上年同期多增 9175 亿元。政府融资连续回升，成为拉动 社融增长的主要贡献项。直接融资方面：企业债净融资同比增加； 新 增非标融资减少 1,201 亿元，同比少减 360 亿元。信贷方面，居民端 来中长贷延续改善，12 月居民贷款增加 3,500 亿元，同比多增 1,279 亿元。其中，居民短贷增加 588 亿元，同比少增 171 亿元；而中长期 贷款增加 3,000 亿元，同比多增 1,538 亿元。从企业端来看，12 月企 业 ...

汽车 行业研究/行业周报 特斯拉 Semi 工厂有望于 2025 年投产，小米汽车 2025 年交付目标 30 万辆 ——汽车行业周报（2024/12/30~2025/01/03） ◼ 行情回顾 过去一周(2024/12/30~2025/01/03），申万汽车行业下跌 7.45%，表现 弱于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 19。细分板块涨跌 幅：过去一周(2024/12/30~2025/01/03），摩托车及其他跌幅最小，汽 车服务跌幅最大。摩托车及其他下跌 6.28%，商用车下跌 6.35%，乘 用车下跌 6.88%，汽车零部件下跌 7.96%，汽车服务下跌 9.84%。 ◼ 核心数据 数据跟踪： 1）行业总量：据中汽协数据，2024 年 11 月汽车销量约 331.6 万辆， 环比+8.6%，同比+11.7%。 2）车企端：据乘联会数据，2024 年 11 月，比亚迪、吉利和奇瑞零 售销量位列前三，分别约 41.7、21.7 和 15.8 万辆，份额分别约为 17.2% 、 9.0% 和 6.5%。 其 中 比 亚 迪 汽 车 、 奇 瑞 汽 车 分 别 同 比 +58.6%、+65.0%。 2 ...

计算机 行业研究/行业周报 亿航智能全球首个"三证"eVTOL 完成试飞 ——计算机行业周报（2025.1.13-2025.1.17） ◼ 本周核心观点及要闻回顾 低空经济：全球首个"三证"eVTOL——亿航智能无人驾驶载人电动 垂直起降飞行器在上海完成试飞 ◼ 市场行情回顾 本周，A 股申万计算机指数上涨 6.14%，板块整体跑赢沪深 300 指数达 4pct，跑赢创业板综指数达 0.75pct。在申万 31 个一级子行业中，计算 机板块周涨跌幅排名为第 3 位。计算机二级行业涨跌幅分别为：软件开 发(7.49%)、计算机设备(4%)、IT 服务 II(6.23%)。海外市场指数整体走 势较强，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：Wind 美国中资股软件与服务(7.3%)、 恒生资讯科技业(4.11%)、纳斯达克(2.45%)、道琼斯美国科技(1.66%) 、 台湾信息服务(-1.26%)。 ◼ 投资建议 本周我们重点看好受益 Kimi 相关 API 发布的大模型板块、受益亿航 智能全球首个"三证"eVTOL 完成试飞的低空经济板块、以及受益 联想入局的机器人板块。 大模型：建议关注云赛智联、润泽科技等； 人形机器人：建 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Accumulate" [6] Core Viewpoints - NAND flash memory is currently in oversupply, leading major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to plan production cuts in 2025 to stabilize prices. Recent data shows that the price fluctuations for 22 types of NAND particles ranged from -1.23% to 2.50%, with an average change of 0.42% [1][23] - The DRAM market is expected to begin recovering in the second quarter of 2025, as indicated by Nanya Technology's management, who noted a shift in customer attitudes due to regional economic stimulus measures [2][24] - The overall storage market is in a consolidation phase, with trading activity being relatively subdued. Despite manufacturers implementing production adjustments, the market remains in a state of supply-demand imbalance, leading to price declines in most applications except for AI servers [3][23] Summary by Sections NAND Market - Major manufacturers are planning production cuts in 2025 to address the oversupply of NAND flash memory, with a focus on stabilizing prices. The current market faces challenges, particularly in non-enterprise SSD segments, where demand is lower than expected [1][23] DRAM Market - Nanya Technology anticipates a recovery in the DRAM market starting in Q2 2025, supported by positive customer sentiment following economic stimulus initiatives. Recent price changes for 18 DRAM types showed fluctuations between -1.07% and 1.36%, with an average change of 0.09% [2][24] HBM Market - Micron plans to ramp up production of advanced HBM processes in Taiwan, with expectations for the HBM4 generation to begin production in 2026. This growth is driven by strong demand from AI applications [2][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the HBM industry chain, which is expected to benefit from the rapid development of advanced computing chips. Recommended companies include Saiteng Co., Yishitong, Lianrui New Materials, and Huahai Chengke. For storage chips, companies like Dongxin Co., Zhaoyi Innovation, Hengsuo Co., and others are highlighted as potential investments [4][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Insights - The launch of Loomos AI glasses by Flash is expected to benefit the related industry chain, as it is powered by GPT-4o, indicating a positive trend in AI applications [11][29] - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced a subsidy plan for purchasing mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches, which is anticipated to benefit the consumer electronics industry [12][31] - Micron Technology is investing approximately $7 billion in Singapore to expand advanced packaging capacity, highlighting the growing importance of advanced packaging in the AI era [13][29] - Domestic semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow by 35% in 2024, indicating a speeding up of the domestic substitution process in the semiconductor industry [14][30] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - AI Edge: The launch of Loomos AI glasses by Flash is expected to benefit the related industry chain, with applications in real-time assistance powered by GPT-4o [11] - Consumer Electronics: The subsidy plan for mobile devices is expected to stimulate demand and benefit the industry chain [12] - Advanced Packaging: Micron's investment in Singapore for advanced packaging is set to meet the growing demand from AI [13] - Domestic Substitution: A projected 35% growth in domestic semiconductor equipment sales in 2024 indicates a rapid domestic substitution process [14] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 4.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.94 percentage points [3][17] - The performance of the Shenwan Electronics sub-sectors varied, with Electronic Chemicals II leading at 5.43% [20][22] 3. Industry News - The introduction of new AI products and subsidies is expected to drive growth in the consumer electronics sector [12][31] - Micron's new advanced packaging facility in Singapore is a significant investment aimed at supporting AI growth [13][29] 4. Company Dynamics - Companies such as Guoguang Electric, Edifier, and others are recommended for their potential benefits from hardware innovation and AI applications [15] - The performance of individual stocks varied significantly, with notable gains for Jin'an Guoji and Qingyi Optoelectronics [25][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from January 1 to 19, 2025, reached 1.05 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 5% and a month-on-month decline of 27%. However, wholesale sales for the same period increased by 25% year-on-year, totaling 1.244 million units [12][33]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic automotive consumption driven by supportive policies, despite a decrease in retail sales [12]. - The report notes that the inventory level of automotive dealers has increased compared to November 2024, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of approximately 1.14 [12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector rose by 1.74% from January 20 to 24, 2025, outperforming the overall A-share market, ranking 7th among all primary sectors [14][16]. - The commercial vehicle segment saw the highest increase of 4.62%, while the passenger vehicle segment experienced a decline of 0.27% during the same period [16]. Industry Data Tracking - In December 2024, total automotive sales were approximately 3.489 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 5.2% and a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [22][23]. - The market share of new energy vehicles in December 2024 was about 45.8%, with a significant increase in sales and exports of new energy vehicles [31][27]. Industry Dynamics - Strategic partnerships are forming, such as SAIC Motor's collaboration with Meituan to enhance market potential and service quality [39]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the development of battery swap models and support the electric vehicle industry [39]. Company Announcements - Companies like Dual Ring Transmission and Seres are projecting significant increases in net profits for 2024, with estimates of 24.45% to 26.90% and 302.32% to 309.30% respectively [41]. - Wencan Co. anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 118.11% to 177.60% for 2024 [41].