计算机 行业研究/行业周报 | --- | |-------| | | | | 正文目录 | --- | |-------| | | | | | | 产业发展不及预期、政策推进力度不及预期、国产替代不及预期 | --- | |--------------------------------------------| | | | 1. 本周市场行情回顾（20241216-20241220） . | | 1.1. 全球主要大盘指数及科技指数 . | | 1.2. 全球 AI 产业链重点标的行情 . | | 2. 全球 AI 产业链大事提醒 | | 2.1. 重点标的业绩披露日期 | | 2.2. 其他大事提醒 | | 3. 核心观点及投资建议 . | | 3.1. 核心观点 | | 3.2. 投资建议 | | 4. 风险提示 | 图 1: 本周全球主要市场大盘指数涨跌幅 图 2: 本周全球主要科技指数涨跌幅 表 1: 全球 AI 产业链重点标的行情 . 表 2: 全球 AI 产业链重点标的业绩披露日期 . 表 3: 其他大事提醒. 2 1. 本周市场行情回顾（20241216-20241220） 本周，全球市场主 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [52]. Core Insights - The report highlights the collaboration between Google DeepMind and Apptronik to advance humanoid robot commercialization, integrating advanced AI technology with established robotic hardware to enhance functionality and safety in complex real-world tasks [10][13]. - The report also emphasizes the launch of the official Home Assistant integration by Xiaomi, allowing users to manage Xiaomi IoT devices across multiple regions [11][14]. - The release of the open-source HarmonyOS 5.0 marks a significant advancement in system completeness, distributed innovation, developer experience, and stability [15][23]. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Computer Index decreased by 0.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.09 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 1.38 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 first-level sub-industries [19][20]. - The performance of the Shenwan Computer secondary industries varied, with software development down by 1.3%, computer equipment up by 1.46%, and IT services II up by 0.38% [21]. Individual Stock Performance - The top ten stocks by weekly performance included Guangyun Technology (+35.48%), Yuntian Lifi-U (+31.66%), and Feitian Trust (+26.17%) [39]. - Conversely, the worst performers included Information Development (-19.66%), Jincai Huilian (-18.90%), and Longyu Co., Ltd. (-17.44%) [6][8]. Industry News - The report discusses the advancements in humanoid robots and the integration of Xiaomi's IoT devices, indicating a trend towards increased automation and smart home technology [10][11][14]. - The open-source HarmonyOS 5.0 release is noted for its improvements, suggesting a competitive edge in the operating system market [15][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the Huawei chain sector benefiting from the progress of open-source HarmonyOS and the humanoid robot sector, recommending companies like Nengke Technology and Zhongruan International [16].

Group 1: Policy Layout and New Quality Productivity - The "246" industrial cluster plan aims to establish two trillion-level industrial clusters in green petrochemicals and automobiles, along with four five-hundred billion-level clusters in high-end equipment, electronic information, new materials, and software services, and six hundred billion-level clusters in key components, smart home appliances, fashion textiles, biomedicine, sports goods, and energy conservation [7][29]. - The "361" plan emphasizes the trend of "green, new, and high" in future industrial development, targeting a revenue of 3.7 trillion yuan for large-scale enterprises and the formation of five national-level industrial clusters by 2027 [9][29]. - These plans are expected to enhance the resilience and stability of the industrial supply chain, promote collaborative innovation, and resource sharing within industrial clusters, thereby strengthening Ningbo's position in the global manufacturing landscape [9][29]. Group 2: Industrial Chain Clusters Supporting New Quality Productivity - Ningbo's automotive manufacturing cluster has become a leading domestic automotive base, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, with a complete supply chain including batteries, motors, and electronic controls [34][64]. - The high-end equipment manufacturing sector is a strategic industry for Ningbo, with a focus on smart equipment, modern energy equipment, and next-generation electronic information equipment, aiming for a significant increase in industrial output value by 2025 [12][45]. - The city has established a robust ecosystem for innovation, with over 7,000 high-tech enterprises and a significant increase in R&D investment, which reached 63.1 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 5.29% increase from 2022 [37][75]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key industries in Ningbo's mid-to-high-end manufacturing and high-tech sectors, including chemical new materials, new energy vehicles, smart robots, magnetic materials, smart photovoltaics, batteries and energy storage, and optical modules [54][80]. - The investment orientation includes eight major industrial clusters and 18 key sub-industries, emphasizing digital industries, green petrochemicals, high-end equipment, new functional materials, new energy, key components, smart home appliances, and modern health industries [52][80].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% [3][21]. Core Insights - The company has announced a placement and convertible bond financing totaling over 5 billion RMB, which will effectively enhance its liquidity and ability to withstand future market fluctuations [2]. - The cash cost of production is projected to decrease from 37.84 RMB/kg in Q1 2024 to 33.18 RMB/kg in Q3 2024, with potential to fall below 30 RMB/kg, allowing the company to cover its cash costs with current silicon prices [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 17.057 billion RMB, 30.523 billion RMB, and 42.118 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -49%, +79%, and +38% respectively [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.921 billion RMB in 2024, followed by 1.544 billion RMB in 2025 and 4.326 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of -216%, +153%, and +180% [3][4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 19 times and 7 times, respectively, indicating a significant potential for earnings recovery [3]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the power equipment industry, with a current market capitalization of approximately 27.405 billion RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the new AI smart glasses by Flash Extreme, which is expected to benefit the related industry chain [1] - The GB200 features 5000 NVLink copper cables, indicating a positive outlook for the high-speed copper connection industry as AI server demand grows [1][14] - The domestic semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow by 35% in 2024, exceeding 110 billion yuan, suggesting a speeding up of the domestic substitution process [1][15][42] - SK Hynix plans to build an AI chip packaging factory, which is expected to benefit the advanced packaging industry chain [1][4][41] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of December 16-20, the A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 3.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.69 percentage points [1][45] - The semiconductor sector saw a notable increase of 5.4%, while electronic chemicals II had a modest rise of 0.43% [1][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from hardware innovation in the AI edge sector, such as Guoguang Electric, Edifier, and others [1][6] - For high-speed copper connections, companies like Wolong Nuclear Materials and Jingda Co. are recommended [1][43] - In advanced packaging, attention is drawn to companies like Yongxi Electronics and Zhongfu Circuit [1][43]

医药生物 行业研究/行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Domestic Liquidity - The yield on 2-year and 10-year government bonds continued to decline, with the yield spread increasing to 0.6312%[11] - The central bank's net withdrawal from the open market was 430.2 billion yuan, and the MLF net withdrawal was 1.45 trillion yuan[35] Fundraising and Market Activity - In December, 8 companies conducted IPOs, raising approximately 4.4 billion yuan[73] - A total of 64 new funds were established in December, with 23 being equity funds, raising a total of 9.6 billion yuan[72] ETF Market - The number of newly established ETFs in 2024 remained the same as in 2023, with 157 ETFs launched, including 9 equity ETFs in December, which issued 3.03 billion shares[19] - The total scale of ETF equity funds was 2.9168 trillion yuan, with a trading volume accounting for 15.5% of the total scale, down by 3.4 percentage points[20] Southbound Capital - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 243 billion yuan last week, with a total net inflow of 715.6 billion yuan for the year, marking a historical high[46] - The banking sector had the largest net inflow of 7.61 billion yuan, followed by telecommunications and retail, while media and consumer services saw significant outflows[23] Margin Financing - Margin financing buy-in amounts decreased, accounting for a lower proportion of A-share trading volume, with an average buy-in of 135.4 billion yuan, down 24.3% week-on-week[32] - The total margin financing balance was approximately 1.89 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.04%[60]

电力设备 行业研究/行业点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [44][61]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the heavy truck industry, with a market share of 27.50% as of August 2024, significantly ahead of its closest competitor [8][52]. - The heavy truck market is closely tied to the national economy, and recent government policies, such as the vehicle replacement program, are expected to stimulate demand [52][13]. - The company has shown strong sales performance, achieving a 15.78% year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales, totaling 70,537 units in the first half of 2024 [7][52]. - The partnership with Weichai Power has enhanced the company's product offerings, leading to improved vehicle performance and competitiveness [18][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily develops, manufactures, and sells various types of heavy-duty trucks and components, with significant brands including Huanghe and Howo [52]. - It operates under a highly oligopolistic market structure, with five major players controlling over 80% of the market share [8][52]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported sales revenue of 24.401 billion yuan, a 20.87% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 619 million yuan, up 24.68% [52]. - The report forecasts sales revenues of 48.907 billion yuan, 54.673 billion yuan, and 60.130 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.347 billion yuan, 1.565 billion yuan, and 1.862 billion yuan [61][62]. Market Position - The company has maintained its position as the market leader in the heavy truck sector, with a significant lead over competitors [8][52]. - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from ongoing economic recovery and increased demand for logistics and construction vehicles [7][52]. Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with international partners like MAN has allowed the company to enhance its technological capabilities and product offerings [18][52]. - The strategic procurement agreement with Weichai Power is expected to further strengthen the company's supply chain and product performance [39][52].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 ◼ 市场行情回顾 本周（20241216-20241220）中信石油石化板块下滑约 1.37%，上证综 合指数下滑约 0.70%，同上证综合指数相比，石油石化板块落后约 0.66 个百分点。子板块方面，石油石化子板块涨跌互现，其中油品销售及 仓储、油田服务等子板块跌幅居前。 本周（20241216-20241220）石油石化板块领涨个股包括宇新股份、蒙 泰高新、广聚能源、沈阳化工、中国海油等；领跌个股包括国际实业、 统一股份、水发燃气、准油股份、和顺石油等。其中民营大炼化公司 周度涨跌幅如下：恒力石化（-0.78%）、新凤鸣（-2.08%）、恒逸石化（- 2.42%）、桐昆股份（-2.89%）、荣盛石化（-4.21%）、东方盛虹（-7.67%） 等。 上游板块方面，上周国际油价有所下跌。从周度数据以及 EIA 短期展 望数据来看，尽管未来两年美国原油产量维持增长，但是国际油价重 心仍有望维持在相对高位，持续利好上游油气公司。油服方面，北美 活跃钻机数周环比持平，但是同比减少较为明显。全球的钻井平台数 量今年三季度环比增长，利好油服公司的业务拓展。中游炼化板块方 面，新加 ...