有色金属 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 美国非农数据超预期，铜铝低库存支撑价格 ——有色行业周报（2024.12.02-2024.12.06） ◼ 核心要点 1、贵金属 美国就业市场存有较强韧性，市场静待 12 月美联储降息落地，维持黄金价 格高位震荡观点的不变。美国 11 月非农就业人数增加了 22.7 万人，高于预 期的 22 万人。失业率保持在 4.2%，高出预期 0.1 个 pct。本周续请失业金人 数为 187.1 万人，低于预期和前值。美国 11 月平均时薪环比+0.4%，同比 +4%，均高于预期。从以上数据看美国就业市场仍存有较强的韧性。美国 11 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 48.4，高于预期和前值；ISM 制造业 PMI 新订单 指数为 50.40，是今年 4 月以来首次回到荣枯线以上，说明美国经济向好。 市场对 12 月美联储降息的预期依然在升温，最新芝商所（CME）美联储观 察工具显示，交易员预计美联储本月降息的概率至 74%，盘中一度超过 80%。我们认为美国依然面临通胀压力，在美联储 12 月降息落地之前，市 场博弈料将加剧，短期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the retail sales of passenger vehicles in November 2024 reached 2.446 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 8%. The domestic automotive consumption demand is expected to grow steadily under supportive policies [12][41]. - The report notes a decrease in dealer inventory levels, with the comprehensive inventory coefficient for automotive dealers at approximately 1.10 as of October 2024 [12]. - The market share of new energy vehicles in October 2024 was approximately 46.8%, indicating ongoing competition in the new energy vehicle segment [13][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in November 2024 were 2.446 million units, up 18% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. The overall automotive consumption demand is expected to grow steadily [12]. - The dealer inventory level has decreased, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of about 1.10 in October 2024 [12]. - The market share of new energy vehicles reached approximately 46.8% in October 2024, with ongoing competitive pricing strategies among major brands [13][38]. 2. Market Review - The automotive sector rose by 3.56% from December 2 to December 6, 2024, outperforming the overall A-share market, ranking 8th among all primary sectors [14]. - The automotive services sector saw the highest increase at 6.46%, while commercial vehicles had the smallest increase at 2.51% during the same period [14][18]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - In October 2024, total automotive sales were approximately 3.053 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 8.7% and a year-on-year increase of 7% [28]. - Passenger vehicle sales were about 2.755 million units in October 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 9.1% and a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [30]. - The report forecasts that the narrow passenger vehicle retail market in November 2024 will be around 2.4 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [42]. 4. Industry Dynamics - GAC Group and Huawei are collaborating to create a new high-end smart electric vehicle brand [54]. - SAIC Group has launched a magnesium alloy electric drive shell, marking a significant innovation in lightweight materials for electric vehicles [54]. 5. New Vehicle Launches - New models launched include the Avita 11 and Avita 11 range extender, as well as the Lynk & Co Z10 from Geely, all released in early December 2024 [55]. 6. Company Dynamics - The report details significant announcements from various companies, including GAC's partnership with Huawei and SAIC's advancements in electric drive technology [54][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [4]. Core Views - Amazon has announced the next generation of 3nm AI training chips, claiming a 30-40% cost-performance improvement over current GPU-based instances. The new Trainium3 chip is expected to deliver four times the performance of its predecessor, with initial instances available by the end of 2025. This ongoing iteration of AI chips is anticipated to benefit the communication-related industry chain [14][16]. - China successfully launched the Qianfan Polar Orbit 03 satellite group, increasing the number of satellites in the Qianfan constellation to 54. This development is expected to benefit the related industry chain as the satellite internet plan progresses [15]. - Strong AI demand has driven growth for Marvell Technology, with a 19% quarter-over-quarter sales increase to $1.52 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $1.8 billion, driven by robust AI demand [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the advancements in AI training chips by Amazon and the successful satellite launch by China, both of which are expected to positively impact the communication industry [14][15]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors such as computing optical communication, satellite communication navigation, and communication equipment, with specific companies suggested for each sector [17]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Communication Index rose by 1.97% from December 2 to December 6, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.53 percentage points [20]. - Within the Shenwan secondary industry, communication equipment saw a 2.21% increase, while communication services rose by 1.47% [22]. 3. Industry News - Shanghai aims to achieve large-scale 5G applications by 2026, with a focus on integrating AI and enhancing application capabilities [37]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that over 4.1 million 5G base stations have been built and opened in China, with applications expanding across various sectors [40]. 4. Company Dynamics - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication are preparing for product shipments and maintaining normal order conditions, respectively [42].

Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing energy consumption of AI model training and inference, leading cloud companies to invest more in nuclear energy solutions [2][3] - It notes that the Chinese government is providing policy support for nuclear fusion and related technologies, with significant breakthroughs in research and development [2][3] - The report suggests that the advanced nuclear energy sector, particularly nuclear fusion and small modular reactors (SMRs), is expected to accelerate in development, benefiting related companies [3] Industry Overview - AI model training consumes substantial electricity, with GPT-3's training requiring approximately 1,280 MWh, equivalent to the monthly electricity usage of 6,400 average Chinese households [2] - By 2026, global data centers are projected to consume around 1.05 trillion kWh of electricity, comparable to Japan's annual consumption [2] - Major cloud companies, such as Oracle and Microsoft, are increasing their investments in nuclear energy to power their data centers [2] Policy and Technological Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) supports the development of strategic emerging industries, including nuclear fusion and quantum technology [2] - Shanghai Future Fusion Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1.026 billion yuan, backed by major stakeholders [2] - Breakthroughs in quasi-ring symmetric stellarator technology have been achieved, laying the groundwork for future high-parameter operations [2] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in nuclear fusion, such as Jingda Co., Lianchuang Optoelectronics, and Guoguang Electric [3] - It also highlights U.S. nuclear power companies like OKLO, NuScale Power, and Constellation Energy as potential investment opportunities [3] - The report indicates that capital is increasingly flowing into the controllable nuclear fusion sector, with companies like Xingneng Xuanguang securing significant funding [3]

电子 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 | --- | |-------| | | | | | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant impact of the State Council's recent guidelines on the integration of smart city infrastructure and intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to accelerate the deployment of intelligent sensing systems in urban road infrastructure [4] - The rapid development of the global digital economy is driving deep integration between new-generation information communication technologies and automotive transportation, fostering the growth of emerging industries such as smart cities and digital transportation [4] - The report forecasts that the domestic market for the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 37% from 2015 to 2025, driven by strong developments in the digital economy and government policy support [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the future construction of new urban infrastructure will focus on digitalization, networking, and intelligence, which will profoundly influence the smart automotive transportation industry [6] - It highlights the importance of advancing the "mobile communication + IoV" sector, as it enables efficient traffic information exchange between vehicles, roads, and cloud platforms, enhancing travel efficiency and safety [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market shows a high investment cost-performance ratio, with the stock-bond yield at -0.96%, which is lower than the average since 2012 [5][15][18] - The margin trading balance increased slightly to approximately 1.85 trillion yuan, up by 0.82% from the previous week, with the financing purchase ratio rising to 10.08% of total A-share trading volume [5][18][23] - The trading activity in the market has generally increased, with the ChiNext index seeing the largest increase in trading volume at 12.11% [6][23][24] Group 2 - The PE valuation percentiles for major indices generally increased, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the SSE 50 leading with an increase of 3.3 percentage points [6][27][33] - The stable style sector saw the largest increase in PE valuation percentiles, rising by 3.9 percentage points, while the financial sector also increased by 3.8 percentage points [7][34][40] - The oil and petrochemical industry led the increase in PE valuation percentiles among sectors, rising by 8.1 percentage points, while the media sector experienced a decline [7][43][44]

计算机 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 深圳市数据要素流通服务中心揭牌，关注数据要素投资机会 ——计算机行业周报（2024.11.25-2024.11.29） ◼ 本周核心观点及要闻回顾 智能驾驶：萝卜快跑自动驾驶网约车平台拟于香港地区试营运，关注 智能驾驶投资机会 据 IT 之家援引香港 TVB 无线新闻，百度旗下自动驾驶网约车平台 萝卜快跑计划在香港地区试营运，最快 2024 年底前在机场进行首阶 段测试。截至 2024 年 7 月 28 日，萝卜快跑累计为公众提供的自动 驾驶出行服务订单已超过 700 万单。 数据要素：深圳市数据要素流通服务中心揭牌，关注数据要素投资机 会 据深圳新闻网，深圳市政务服务和数据管理局授予深圳数据交易所成 立"深圳市数据要素流通服务中心"，将发挥促进数据要素流通、促进 数据交易服务、促进数据跨境流通、服务深圳市人工智能产业发展等 若干作用。 算力&大模型：中国石油发布 700 亿参数昆仑大模型 据 IT 之家援引中国石油报，11 月 28 日，中国石油介绍了与中国移 动、华为、科大讯飞联手打造的 700 亿参数昆仑大模型， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6][13]. Core Viewpoints - The announcement on December 3 by the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on dual-use items highlights the strategic value of key resources such as gallium, germanium, antimony, superhard materials, and graphite [4]. - The announcement represents an upgrade of previous export control measures, making it more difficult for these materials to be exported, particularly to military users or for military purposes [4][5]. - China holds the largest global production share in gallium (98.38%), germanium (93.53%), antimony (48.19%), and graphite (76.88%), indicating a significant impact on foreign supply chains due to the new controls [5]. Summary by Sections Export Control Measures - The new export control measures prohibit the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to military users, with stricter reviews for graphite [4]. - The strategic importance of these materials is emphasized, as they are critical in both civilian and military applications [4]. Global Production and Impact - China dominates global production in the relevant materials, with gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite production all ranking first globally [5]. - The implementation of these controls is expected to significantly disrupt foreign industries reliant on these materials in the short term [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that gallium, germanium, antimony, superhard materials, and graphite are key mineral resources with significant strategic value, warranting attention and development [6]. - Specific companies mentioned for potential investment include Yunnan Germanium, Chihong Zinc & Germanium, China Aluminum, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Sifangda, Boyun New Materials, and Yulong Co [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Maintain Buy" [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is in a bottoming recovery phase, with excavator sales showing improvement. The industry has a wide range of applications across construction, water conservancy, electricity, roads, mining, ports, and national defense. As of 2023, excavators account for approximately 29.06% of the sales of the top 50 global engineering machinery manufacturers [4][16]. - The current industry cycle is recovering from a downturn that began in 2022, with excavator sales in the first seven months of 2024 totaling 116,900 units, a year-on-year decline of 3.72%, indicating a significant narrowing of the decline compared to the previous year [4][23]. - Domestic brands have significantly increased their market share, reaching 86.8% in 2023, up from 83.5% in 2022, and are expected to continue this upward trend [4][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Recovery and Sales Performance - The engineering machinery sector is currently in a recovery phase, with excavator sales acting as a leading indicator, representing about 30% of total industry sales [16]. - The industry has experienced multiple cycles since 2005, with the current phase showing signs of recovery starting from early 2024 [23]. 2. Domestic Demand and Policy Impact - The real estate market is seeing policy optimizations, which are expected to positively impact excavator sales as they are heavily used in construction projects [35]. - Fixed asset investment in the first half of 2024 grew by 3.9%, with infrastructure and mining investments increasing by 7.7% and 17%, respectively [41]. 3. Replacement Demand - The high ownership of excavators, with 190,000 units expected to be in use for over ten years, creates significant replacement demand, projected at 102,000, 145,000, and 202,000 units for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [43][48]. 4. Global Market Growth and Export Opportunities - The global engineering machinery market is expected to grow from $195.04 billion in 2023 to $273.94 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.3% [4][53]. - Chinese manufacturers are increasing their export share, with 2023 exports reaching $48.55 billion, and the gross profit margins for exports are higher than domestic sales [70].