宏观研究/宏观点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 货币政策的新目标、新效果、新环境 ——10 月金融数据分析 ◼ 核心观点 我们认为，下一阶段国内货币政策可以从三个方面进行观察：一是从 政策目标来看，推动价格温和回升已成为货币政策重要考量，可观察 PPI 转正、CPI 修复的持续性等。二是从政策效果来看，已经能观察到 股指、货币供应量等指标的变化，但信贷、房地产价格等仍在筑底。 三是从全球环境来看，美联储 11 月再一次降息，但美国国债收益率与 美元指数再次反弹至高位，人民币汇率稳定压力仍未解除。 一、当前货币政策坚持支持性立场，逆周期调节力度加大，促进价格 回升仍然是货币政策重要考量。9 月 24 日国新办新闻发布会提出货币 政策的五个考量：支持中国经济的稳定增长；推动价格的温和回升； 兼顾支持实体经济增长和银行业自身健康性；保持人民币汇率在合理 均衡水平上基本稳定；支持积极财政政策更好发力见效。11 月 5 日的 《国务院关于金融工作情况的报告》提出下一阶段"坚持支持性货币 政策立场，加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控精准性，有效 落实存量政策，加力推动增量政策落地见效"。1 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.10 yuan as of October 23, 2024 [6][7] Core Views - The company is a global leader in smart display manufacturing, focusing on customized and differentiated display products, including smart interactive panels, professional displays, innovative displays, and smart TVs [2] - The company primarily operates through an OEM model, with 83.8% of its revenue coming from overseas sales in H1 2024 [2] - The global TV OEM market is expected to grow further due to increasing demand for cost-effective local brands and channel-owned brands, benefiting the company's smart TV business [3] - The company's smart interactive display business is expected to improve, driven by the replacement cycle in overseas education markets and emerging market demand [4] - The innovative display segment, including products like mobile smart screens and VR glasses, has shown rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 128.92% YoY in 2023 and 94.1% YoY in H1 2024 [5] Business Segments Smart TV - The company's smart TV business has shown strong growth, with a 20.7% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 and a 52.7% YoY increase in H1 2024 [16][17] - The company ranks fourth in the global TV OEM market in H1 2024, with a 43.7% YoY increase in shipments [40][41] - The global TV OEM market is expected to grow further, driven by cost pressures on brand manufacturers and the shift towards local brands and channel-owned brands [37] Smart Interactive Display - The company is the global leader in smart interactive panel shipments, with a 35.7% revenue share in 2023 [44] - The global IFPD (Interactive Flat Panel Display) market is expected to grow, with education and conference markets showing significant potential [46] - The company's smart interactive display business is expected to grow, with revenue projected to reach 40.1 billion yuan in 2024, 45.8 billion yuan in 2025, and 50.3 billion yuan in 2026 [61] Innovative Display - The innovative display segment, including products like mobile smart screens, VR glasses, and smart mirrors, has shown rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 128.92% YoY in 2023 and 94.1% YoY in H1 2024 [5][57] - The company's KTC brand ranks third in the domestic online market for gaming monitors, with a 142% YoY increase in sales in H1 2024 [53] - The innovative display segment is expected to continue its strong growth, with revenue projected to reach 14.4 billion yuan in 2024, 18.0 billion yuan in 2025, and 20.7 billion yuan in 2026 [62] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.9% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 153.2 billion yuan in 2024, 174.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 189.9 billion yuan in 2026 [6][65] - Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36.2% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 9.73 billion yuan in 2024, 13.25 billion yuan in 2025, and 16.01 billion yuan in 2026 [6][65] - The company's EPS is projected to be 1.42 yuan in 2024, 1.93 yuan in 2025, and 2.33 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.7x, 10.8x, and 9.0x [6][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [6]. Core Insights - The retail sector is witnessing a strong performance, particularly in e-commerce, with significant sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating robust consumer demand [2][11]. - The report highlights the increasing purchasing power of 88VIP members on Tmall, which is driving sales growth across various categories [2][11]. - JD.com is also experiencing substantial growth in transaction volume and user engagement, particularly in the 3C digital and home appliance categories [3][12]. - Offline retail is innovating with immersive shopping experiences to attract consumers, integrating online and offline strategies [4][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Insights - E-commerce sales for Double Eleven reached 845 billion RMB, with home appliances leading at 132.4 billion RMB, followed by mobile digital products and clothing [2][11]. - Tmall's 88VIP members showed over 60% growth in order numbers compared to the previous year, indicating strong consumer engagement [2][11]. 2. Industry Dynamics 2.1. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 5.50%, while the retail sector increased by 10.51%, outperforming the index by 5.01 percentage points [15]. - All four sub-sectors within retail showed positive growth, with internet e-commerce leading at 9.61% [17]. 2.2. Stock Performance - Among 104 retail companies, 97 saw stock price increases, with notable gains from companies like 博士眼镜 (45.58%) and 供销大集 (44.00%) [19][20]. 3. Industry Tracking 3.1. Industry Data Tracking - In September, the total retail sales reached 41,112 billion RMB, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, with online retail sales contributing significantly [23][31]. - The online retail sector showed resilience, with a 7.9% increase in physical goods sold online, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales [25][30]. 3.2. Industry News - The report discusses various initiatives and policies aimed at boosting the retail sector, including support for cross-border e-commerce and innovations in offline retail strategies [32][34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6][29] Core Viewpoints - In October, the home appliance export accelerated with a revenue of $8.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 18.3 percentage points [2][10] - The overall export volume reached 388 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 16.6 percentage points [2][10] - The cumulative export revenue from January to October 2024 was $83.85 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.9% [2][10] - The performance of the home appliance sector is expected to improve continuously in Q4 2024 and 2025 due to the effectiveness of the old-for-new policy and improving terminal demand [5][24] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Tracking - The home appliance industry index rose by 2.32% from November 4 to November 8, ranking 28th among all first-level industries [4][9] - The performance of sub-sectors included white goods up by 0.58%, black goods down by 2.31%, small appliances up by 2.87%, kitchen and bathroom appliances up by 8.55%, lighting equipment up by 8.04%, and home appliance components up by 13.98% [4][9] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 October Home Appliance Export Acceleration - October home appliance exports showed significant acceleration with a revenue of $8.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [2][10] - The average export price decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][10] - The combined export revenue for September and October was up 12.9% year-on-year, maintaining a double-digit growth trend since April 2024 [2][10] 2.2 Improvement in Domestic Sales of Air Conditioners and Refrigerators - Domestic sales of air conditioners and refrigerators improved in September, with air conditioner sales growing by 7.4% year-on-year [11][19] - The production of air conditioners in September was 12.21 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.0% [11][19] - The production of refrigerators in September was 8.76 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [11][19] 3. Industry Data Tracking - In the real estate sector, the number of transactions in 30 major cities increased by 12% year-on-year, and the transaction area increased by 6% year-on-year [3][19] - Raw material prices showed a decline, with LME copper down by 1.08% and aluminum down by 0.50% as of November 8 [22][24] - The exchange rate of USD to RMB was 7.1433, an increase of 0.42% compared to November 1 [22][24] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Boss Electric, Vatti, Roborock, and Feike Electric due to expected performance improvements in the home appliance sector [5][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [5][27]. Core Insights - The release of the State Council's "Opinions on High-Quality Development of Ice and Snow Sports to Stimulate the Vitality of the Ice and Snow Economy" indicates a promising long-term development for the ice and snow economy, with a target scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the construction of a spatial layout for the ice and snow economy, focusing on regions such as Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Xinjiang, aiming to create internationally influential ice and snow economic clusters [2][11]. - The report highlights improvements in consumer spending, with September retail sales showing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, indicating a recovery in domestic consumption [13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking - The social service industry index rose by 6.21% in the week of November 4-8, ranking 16th among all Shenwan first-level industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71% [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Ice and Snow Economy Planning - The ice and snow economy is expected to grow significantly, with strategic plans for development and international event hosting to boost tourism [2][11]. 2.2 Improvement in September Retail Data - Retail sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with notable growth in essential goods categories [13][22]. 3. Industry Dynamics - European hotel average room profit margins increased by 5.9% in Q3, with a 3.4% rise in air passenger demand [19]. - Thailand's tourism recovery has led to significant hotel investment, with 12 projects totaling 16 billion Thai Baht (approximately 3.4 billion yuan) [19][20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Songcheng Performing Arts, ShouLai Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and others, as domestic tourism consumption is expected to grow steadily [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [2][12]. Core Views - The company has faced continuous pressure on performance, with a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024. Revenue reached 15.887 billion yuan, down 6.37%, and net profit was 655 million yuan, down 26.29% [1]. - Weak demand has led to revenue pressure, with new contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2024 amounting to 21.926 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.34% year-on-year. The production model of "customized production based on demand" has also impacted output [1]. - The report anticipates a potential stabilization in steel prices and ongoing improvements from smart transformation initiatives, which could enhance unit profitability [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.887 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 655 million yuan, down 26.29%. The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 357 million yuan, down 48.98% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 5.562 billion yuan, a decline of 5.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of 228 million yuan, down 32.37% [1]. Market Conditions - The overall weak downstream demand has been a significant factor affecting the company's performance. The average price of hot-rolled coils fell by 8.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, contributing to revenue decline [1]. - The company’s steel structure output for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 3.2507 million tons, showing a slowdown in growth compared to 28.4% year-on-year in 2023 [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2024-2026, with estimates of 883 million yuan, 1.070 billion yuan, and 1.174 billion yuan respectively. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 1.28 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 13.04, 10.76, and 9.81 [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from smart transformation initiatives that will enhance efficiency and profitability in the future [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [5][34]. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price has seen an increase, with Brent crude oil futures settling at approximately $73.87 per barrel, reflecting a weekly increase of about 1.05% [12][16]. - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory has increased by approximately 2.15 million barrels week-on-week, indicating a growing supply [14][16]. - The North American active rig count remains stable week-on-week but shows a significant year-on-year decline, which may impact oil service companies [17][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector rose approximately 3.11% during the week of November 4-8, 2024, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by about 5.51%, indicating a lag of approximately 2.4 percentage points for the oil and petrochemical sector [9][11]. Core Viewpoints Upstream Sector - Despite a projected growth in U.S. crude oil production over the next two years, international oil prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [2][16]. Oil Service Sector - The global drilling platform count has increased quarter-on-quarter, which is favorable for the business expansion of oil service companies [17]. Midstream Refining Sector - The Singapore diesel price spread has decreased by approximately $0.5 per barrel, while the gasoline price spread has increased by about $0.6 per barrel, indicating a mixed performance in refining margins [19]. Terminal Polyester Sector - The POY price spread is approximately 1259 RMB/ton, with overall inventory accumulation suggesting a potential for performance recovery in long filament enterprises [23][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes: 1. Focus on major energy state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are pushing for oil and gas reserves and production increases [3][30]. 2. Attention to the oil service sector, with companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering expected to benefit from increased global upstream capital expenditure [3][30]. 3. Investment in long filament companies such as Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co., as industry supply-demand dynamics improve [3][30]. 4. Monitoring refining companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical, which are actively planning new capacities and accelerating new material projects [3][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - NAND market prices have shown slight fluctuations, with an average price change of -0.18% for 22 categories of NAND particles [2] - DRAM prices have slightly decreased, with an average price change of -0.64% for 18 categories of DRAM particles [2] - The demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to increase due to the rapid growth of generative AI and cloud services [2] - The storage industry is anticipated to experience a new demand peak in 2025, driven by significant increases in storage capacity in electronic products and potential breakthroughs in AI personal computers and smartphones [2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Price Tracking of Storage Chips - NAND particle prices fluctuated with a range of -2.82% to 2.82% in the last week, while DRAM prices ranged from -2.50% to 3.25% [2] - The K2 factory of Kioxia is expected to start production in the fall of 2025, which will produce the latest BiCS 8 NAND Flash [2] 2. Industry News - Market sentiment has turned bearish, leading to a decline in large-capacity embedded product prices [11] - Adata reported a significant increase in DRAM revenue, with a 27.21% year-on-year growth in the first ten months of 2024 [12] - SK Hynix plans to sample its 16-layer 48GB HBM3E in early 2025, with performance improvements over existing products [13] 3. Company Dynamics - Deep Technology emphasizes its competitive advantages in flexible manufacturing and digital integration [15] - Saiteng Co. is expanding its production capacity in Japan with a new facility [15] 4. Company Announcements - Zhaoyi Innovation has repurchased 973,200 shares, accounting for 0.1462% of its total share capital [16] - Baiwei Storage provided a guarantee of 200 million RMB for its subsidiary [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][11]. Core Insights - Samsung has launched two foldable smartphones, which are expected to benefit the related supply chain. The new models are priced starting at 9999 yuan [2][6]. - The release of the 2024 MacBook Pro by Apple, featuring M4, M4 Pro, and M4 Max chips, is anticipated to drive the replacement cycle in the related supply chain [2][7]. - Passive components from leading manufacturers like Murata and TDK are expected to see price increases of approximately 10% to 20%, benefiting the passive components supply chain [2][8][9]. - Japan's Rapidus has commenced the construction of an advanced packaging R&D line, which is expected to enhance the related supply chain's growth [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - Foldable Screen: Samsung's new foldable smartphones are expected to accelerate the replacement cycle, benefiting the supply chain [2][6]. - Apple Supply Chain: The launch of the 2024 MacBook Pro is expected to drive growth in the related supply chain [2][7]. - Passive Components: Price increases in passive components are anticipated, benefiting the supply chain [2][8][9]. - Advanced Packaging: The importance of advanced packaging is growing, with related supply chains expected to benefit [2][10]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 9.36% from November 4 to November 8, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.86 percentage points [12]. - Among the sub-sectors, semiconductors led with an 11.98% increase, while consumer electronics saw a 5.61% rise [12][13]. 3. Industry News - Murata and TDK are expected to raise prices for certain passive components by 10% to 20% due to increased demand from smartphone manufacturers and a recovering PC market [17]. - Rapidus has started building an advanced packaging R&D line, with operations expected to begin in April 2026 [17]. 4. Company Dynamics - Dongshan Precision is focusing on serving electric vehicle clients in its Mexico and U.S. factories, while its Thailand factory is investing in PCB business [20]. - Fenghua Advanced Technology emphasizes technological innovation, with significant R&D investments planned for 2024 [20]. 5. Company Announcements - Pengding Holdings reported a 2.18% decrease in consolidated revenue for October 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - In October, home appliance exports increased by 22.8%, showing a significant month-on-month acceleration, with total export revenue reaching $8.58 billion [2]. - The overall export volume for home appliances in October was 388 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [2]. - The average export price for home appliances decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - The cumulative export revenue from January to October 2024 reached $83.85 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.9% [2]. - The production and export of air conditioners are expected to see significant growth in November and December, with production for November projected at 8.995 million units, a 65.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the recent "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted domestic sales, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 20.5% year-on-year in October [3]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - October home appliance export revenue was $8.58 billion, up 22.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month acceleration of 18.3 percentage points [2]. - The total export volume was 388 million units, a 24.5% increase year-on-year, with a month-on-month acceleration of 16.6 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative export revenue for January to October 2024 was $83.85 billion, reflecting a 12.9% year-on-year growth [2]. Production and Sales Outlook - Air conditioner export production for November is projected at 8.995 million units, a 65.5% increase year-on-year, with December expected to reach 10.88 million units, a 48.5% increase [2]. - Refrigerator and washing machine export production also showed stable growth, with November production for refrigerators at 3.88 million units (up 4.5% year-on-year) and for washing machines at 3.4 million units (up 5.1% year-on-year) [2]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in the home appliance sector's performance in Q4 2024 and into 2025, driven by positive domestic demand trends [3].