策略研究/策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 研 究 策 略 周 报 新发股票型基金提速，融资买入额显著增加 ——流动性 11 月第 1 期 ◼ 核心观点 上周（11.4-11.8）2 年期、10 年期国债收益率均下行；美国 10 年国债 收益率回落，美元指数上升，中美 10 年国债利差边际收窄；上周融资 买入额回升，南下累计净流入走高。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（11.4-11.8），2 年期、10 年期国债收益率均下行，10 年期 与 2 年期国债利差缩小。上周央行公开市场净回笼 13158 亿元，11 月 MLF 净回笼量为 14500 亿元。 国外：上周（11.4-11.8）10 年期美债收益率回落，美元指数上升，中 美 10 年期国债利差边际收窄。上周 10 年期美债收益率回落至 4.30%， 美元指数升至 104.95。截至 11 月 8 日，中美 10 年期国债利差小幅收 窄至-2.19%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2024 年 11 月新成立 27 只基金，其中 14 只为股票型基金。 截至 11 月 8 日，2024 年 1-11 月新成立基金 953 只，2023 年前 11 月 ...

Economic Overview - The global economic recovery remains weak and complex, with developed economies like the US and Europe entering a rate-cutting cycle due to declining inflation[4] - Geopolitical tensions and rising international commodity prices pose challenges, leading some countries like Japan and Brazil to raise interest rates to combat inflation[4] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economy is facing intertwined cyclical and structural challenges, with external uncertainties and a slowdown in global growth impacting domestic stability[4] - Despite these challenges, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with a vast market and significant resilience[4] Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented significant monetary policy adjustments, including a 10 basis point (BP) cut in the main policy rate on July 22 and a 20 BP cut on September 27, marking the largest reduction in nearly four years[4] - A second reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 BP this year is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market[4] Market Impact - The PBOC's actions, including net purchases of government bonds (1,000 billion yuan in August and 2,000 billion yuan in September), aim to enhance market liquidity and improve policy transmission efficiency[4] - The introduction of the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) allows eligible institutions to exchange collateral for high-quality liquid assets, enhancing their funding capabilities[4] Investment Outlook - The report suggests a positive short-term sentiment in the bond market due to the PBOC's flexible and prudent monetary policy stance[4] - The ongoing structural adjustments and policy measures are expected to gradually improve market expectations and stimulate economic growth[4] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, policy measures falling short of expectations, and unexpected liquidity or market volatility[5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Views - The company accelerates its upstream gas source layout, establishing an integrated natural gas industry chain. By investing in leading coalbed methane developer Yamei Energy and continuously expanding upstream projects, the company has become a rare private enterprise in China with its own gas sources, achieving a nearly integrated structure of "resources above, pipelines in the middle, and customers below." In 2023, the proportion of coalbed methane extraction and sales significantly increased to around 68% [3][4]. - The growth potential of unconventional gas is substantial, with long-term demand for natural gas remaining strong. Natural gas is the only clean low-carbon energy among the three major primary energy sources globally and is crucial during the energy transition. However, its consumption in China was only 9% in 2023, significantly lower than the global average of about 23%, indicating considerable growth potential under the "dual carbon" strategy [3][31]. - Resource advantages continue to strengthen, with multiple blocks accelerating growth. The acquisition of Yamei Energy has provided the company with coalbed methane development resources, including the Pan Zhuang and Ma Bi projects. In the first half of 2024, the Ma Bi block's production increased by approximately 59.90%, with an average selling price rising by about 12.04% [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Accelerating Upstream Gas Source Layout - The company is one of the few private gas enterprises in China with its own gas sources, primarily engaged in coalbed methane exploration and development, as well as urban natural gas distribution and sales [14]. - The company has maintained a high growth rate in performance, with a CAGR of approximately 11.25% from 2019 to 2023, despite a decline in 2020 due to the pandemic [20][28]. 2. Growth Potential of Unconventional Gas - Natural gas is a key transitional energy source in the "dual carbon" strategy, with significant room for growth in domestic consumption [31]. - The domestic coalbed methane geological resource is approximately 36.8 trillion cubic meters, with Shanxi Province being a major contributor [42]. 3. Resource Advantages and Growth Acceleration - The company has fully controlled Yamei Energy, enhancing its coalbed methane extraction and sales capabilities, and has established a comprehensive energy supply and service provider [65]. - The Pan Zhuang block has shown a consistent increase in production, with a CAGR of approximately 15.62% from 2017 to 2022, supported by breakthroughs in thin coal seam development technology [70].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [9] Core Insights - The industry is focusing on the potential of geographic information data elements, emphasizing investment opportunities in data elements [6][19] - Lyft plans to collaborate with Mobileye and other companies to introduce more autonomous vehicles by 2025, highlighting opportunities in the smart driving industry chain [6][19] - Alipay and Huawei have reached a strategic cooperation to enhance the Harmony ecosystem, indicating an improvement in the Harmony chain's prosperity [6][20] Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Computer Index increased by 14.41%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 8.91 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 4.4 percentage points [7][23] - The performance of the Shenwan secondary industries includes: Software Development (16.5%), Computer Equipment (13.05%), and IT Services II (12.9%) [7][25] - The top ten stocks by performance this week include: Zhisheng Information (+117.24%), Yingshi Sheng (+77%), and Saiwei Intelligent (+73.55%) [33] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the data element sector, benefiting from the digital information catalyst, and the smart driving sector, which is driven by the overseas travel market [8][21] - Recommended stocks in the data element sector include: Deep Sanda A, Shanghai Steel Union, and Guoxin Health [8][21] - Recommended stocks in the smart driving sector include: Desay SV, and Zhongke Chuangda [8][21] - Recommended stocks in the Huawei chain include: Chinasoft International, and Softcom Power [8][21] Industry News - Alipay and Huawei's strategic cooperation aims to enhance the user experience of mobile payments and promote the "touch era" in mobile payments [37] - Lyft's collaboration with Mobileye and others will enable autonomous vehicles to operate within its network, marking a significant step in the smart driving sector [40] - The 2024 Geographic Information Technology Innovation Conference highlighted the importance of effective data utilization and management in driving innovation and development in the digital economy [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The household appliance sector is experiencing a positive trend in terminal demand driven by government policies, particularly the trade-in program for consumer goods, leading to significant year-on-year growth in retail sales for major appliances in October [2] - The sales momentum is expected to continue into November, with strong performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - The positive terminal demand is gradually translating into increased shipments for manufacturers, with significant growth forecasted for production in November and December [4] Summary by Sections Terminal Demand - In October, online retail sales for major appliances saw year-on-year increases: air conditioners (48.1%), refrigerators (51.7%), washing machines (25.2%), and color TVs (54.9%). Offline sales showed even higher growth: air conditioners (113.9%), refrigerators (85.7%), washing machines (78.8%), and color TVs (82.1%) [2] - The average prices for major appliances also improved, with notable increases in online prices for air conditioners (5.7%), refrigerators (14.0%), washing machines (4.0%), and color TVs (12.5%) [2] Production and Shipments - The production forecast for household appliances indicates double-digit growth for air conditioners and refrigerators in November and December, with air conditioner production expected to reach 619.7 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [4] - The washing machine production forecast for November is 420 million units, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [4] Investment Recommendations - Despite a slowdown in performance in Q3 2024, the effectiveness of the trade-in policy and the positive terminal demand are expected to lead to improved performance in Q4 2024 and 2025. Recommended companies to watch include Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Robam Appliances, Vatti Corporation, Stone Technology, and Flyco [4]

Monetary Policy Insights - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.50% year-on-year in October, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous value[2] - The narrow money supply (M1) decreased by 6.10% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 1.3 percentage points[2] - The total social financing stock grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 27.06 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2024, which is 4.13 trillion yuan less than the same period last year[2] Financing Demand and Trends - Social financing growth rate in October was 7.80%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[7] - New corporate bond financing in October decreased by 163 million yuan, while non-standard financing dropped by 1.443 trillion yuan year-on-year[7] - Resident loans increased by 160 billion yuan in October, which is 194.6 billion yuan more than the same month last year[8] Asset Allocation Changes - There is a notable shift in resident asset allocation, with household deposits decreasing by 570 billion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits down by 730 billion yuan in October[12] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits by 1.08 trillion yuan, indicating a potential "migration" of deposits due to declining interest rates and improved market expectations[12] Investment Recommendations - The "financial bottom" is emerging, with expectations for looser monetary policy to increase, which may enhance local government economic development capabilities[19] - The capital market's attractiveness for resident deposits is expected to rise, leading to positive changes in asset allocation and social financing data[19] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may increase uncertainty in the market[3] - Potential over-adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could impact global economic conditions[3]

机械设备 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 10 月挖机销量同比增长 15%，内外销迎共振 ——行业周报（20241028-20241101） ◼ 板块行情回顾 本期（11 月 4 日-11 月 8 日），沪深 300 上涨 5.5%，A 股申万机械设 备指数上涨 7.89%，在申万 31 个一级子行业中排名 6，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.39 个百分点。申万机械设备二级子行业中自动化设备表现较 好，上涨 15.11%，工程机械表现较差，上涨 1.55%。申万机械设备三 级子行业中机器人表现较好，上涨 30.67%，工程机械整机表现较差， 上涨 1.09%。 ◼ 核心观点 10 月挖机销量同比增长 15.1%。据中国工程机械工业协会对挖掘机主 要制造企业统计，2024 年 10 月销售各类挖掘机 16791 台，同比增长 15.1%。其中国内销量 8266 台，同比增长 21.6%；出口量 8525 台，同 比增长 9.46%。2024 年 1-10 月，共销售挖掘机 164172 台，同比增长 0.47%；其中国内销量 82211 台，同比增长 9.8%；出口 8 ...

医药生物 行业研究/行业点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | ◼ | 医保预付金制度出台，医疗服务、流通赛道景 气度上行 \n核心观点 \ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 19.5% year-on-year to 1.013 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 56.98% to 35 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to external macroeconomic factors, fluctuations in the real estate industry, and adjustments in downstream customer demand [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business by increasing resource investment in key markets and establishing a robust distribution network [1]. - The company focuses on the smart water supply sector, developing a range of smart water meter products and related services [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue down 19.5% and net profit down 56.98% [1]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to approximately 1.485 billion, 1.710 billion, and 1.982 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 73 million, 76 million, and 85 million yuan [2]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its overseas business development by targeting key markets and customers, participating in international exhibitions, and strengthening customer relationships [1]. - The focus remains on the smart water supply sector, with an emphasis on smart metering and operational solutions [1]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the operational challenges faced by the company may persist throughout 2024 due to a complex domestic and international environment [2]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is viewed as a leader in the water meter industry with strong growth potential [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5][27]. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2024, the social service sector is experiencing performance pressure, particularly in the tourism and scenic area, with total revenue of 26.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, and Q3 revenue of 10.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.59% [2][10]. - The hotel and catering sector shows a decline in revenue, with total revenue of 22.598 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.58%, and Q3 revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.22% [2][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in winter sports tourism, with a 22% increase in hotel bookings for skiing in northern regions compared to last year [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance Tracking - The social service industry index rose by 2.65% in the week of October 28 to November 1, ranking 4th among all primary industries [4][8]. - Sub-industry performance varied, with hotel and catering down by 0.54%, tourism and scenic areas down by 1.52%, education up by 17.72%, and professional services down by 3.23% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Q3 2024 Social Service Sector Performance Pressure - The tourism and scenic area revenue growth has slowed due to a high base from the previous year, with Q3 net profit of 1.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.78% [2][10]. - The hotel and catering sector's Q3 net profit decreased by 33.53% to 618 million yuan, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures [2][12]. 2.2 Improvement in September Retail Data - National retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in household appliances and audio-visual equipment sales [13][14]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Ctrip reported a 22% increase in ski hotel bookings for this winter compared to last year, with significant growth in regions like Heilongjiang and Hebei [3][19]. - Hubei province saw a 12.7% increase in tourist numbers and a 17.8% increase in tourism revenue as of the end of October 2024 [20][21]. - The government has set a target for the ice and snow economy to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, emphasizing the importance of winter sports [20][21]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Songcheng Performing Arts, ShouLai Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Zhongxin Tourism, Keri International, and Zhongjiao Holdings for potential investment opportunities [5][22].