研究早观点 2024 年 10 月 21 日 星期一 市场走势 【今日要点】 【山证纺服】9 月社零数据点评-9 月国内社零增速超市场预期，可选 消费品类降幅收窄 【山证纺服】361 度 2024Q3 经营数据点评-24Q3 零售流水延续良好增 长，线上渠道快于线下 资料来源：最闻 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 3,261.56 | 2.91 | | 深证成指 | 10,357.68 | 4.71 | | 沪深 300 | 3,925.23 | 3.62 | | 中小板指 | 6,377.61 | 3.93 | | 创业板指 | 2,195.10 | 7.95 | | 科创 50 | 978.66 | 11.33 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声 ...

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "In line with the market" [1] Core Insights - In September 2024, domestic retail sales (社零) reached 4.11 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, which exceeded market expectations [1] - The consumer confidence index has been declining since the second quarter of 2024, with the latest figure in August at 85.8, down 0.2 from the previous month [1] - Online retail channels outperformed overall retail sales, with a 3.0% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to September 2024, and a 7.9% increase in physical goods online retail sales [1][2] - The performance of optional consumer goods showed a narrowing decline, with the textile and apparel sector experiencing a year-on-year decrease of only 0.4% in September 2024, a reduction of 1.2 percentage points from previous months [1][2] Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing Sector - International textile and apparel brands, such as Fast Retailing and Adidas, are expected to see revenue growth of approximately double digits in the upcoming fiscal years [4] - The textile manufacturing sector is projected to maintain strong performance in Q3 2024, with companies like Huayi Group and Weixing Co. expected to benefit from new customer growth and production base expansions [4] Sportswear Sector - The domestic sports and entertainment goods retail sales grew by 9.7% year-on-year from January to September 2024, with a monthly growth of 6.2% in September [4] - Brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees are recommended due to their stable retail performance and innovative product offerings [4] Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry retail sales saw a narrowing decline in September 2024, with expectations for improved sales during the upcoming holiday season [4] - Companies such as Laoputang and Chow Tai Fook are highlighted for their strong sales performance and brand strength in the gold and jewelry market [4]

Group 1: Inspur Information (000977.SZ) - The company reported Q3 revenue and net profit growth exceeding expectations, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [3][4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company expects revenue of approximately 81.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25-1.35 billion yuan, representing a growth of 61.34%-74.24% [3][4] - The growth is attributed to increased AI computing power procurement by major domestic internet companies, with combined capital expenditures from Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent reaching 22.9 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a 69% year-on-year increase [4] Group 2: Haiguang Information (688041.SH) - The company reported Q3 revenue growth exceeding expectations, with a 55.64% year-on-year increase to 6.137 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, and a net profit of 1.526 billion yuan, up 69.22% [6][7] - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 2.374 billion yuan, a 78.33% increase year-on-year, while net profit surged by 199.90% to 672 million yuan [6][7] - The growth is driven by the rapid advancement of domestic AI computing demand and the increasing recognition of the company's CPU and DCU products, leading to a significant rise in gross margin to 69.13% in Q3 [6][7] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Insights - The interest rate swap curve indicates that the market is in a monetary easing cycle, with expectations for future interest rate cuts [8][9] - The curve suggests that the central bank's open market operations (OMO) will lead to a new funding rate center around 1.68% in the near future, with a high probability of further rate cuts in the coming months [8][9] - The bond market is expected to experience a range-bound fluctuation as the equity market stabilizes, with ongoing monetary policy support for a bond bull market [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company 361 Degrees (01361.HK) [5] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company's main brand offline retail revenue grew by 10% year-on-year, while the children's clothing brand also saw a 10% increase. The e-commerce platform's retail revenue grew by over 20% [3][5] - The company continues to outperform domestic competitors in the retail sector despite a challenging consumption environment in China [5] - The company has announced its partnership as the official sponsor for the 2026 Nagoya Asian Games, enhancing its brand visibility [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q3 2024, the offline retail revenue for the main brand and children's clothing both increased by 10% year-on-year, while e-commerce revenue grew by over 20% [3][5] - During the National Day holiday (October 1-7), offline retail revenue increased by over 20%, and e-commerce revenue grew by approximately 30% [2] Financial Forecast - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 100.40 billion, 116.24 billion, and 132.10 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 15.8%, and 13.6% [5] - The projected net profit for the same period is 11.04 billion, 12.74 billion, and 14.51 billion CNY, with growth rates of 14.8%, 15.4%, and 13.9% [5] Retail Strategy - The company maintains a stable discount level of approximately 71% for new products in Q3 2024, with inventory turnover remaining between 4.5 to 5 months [4] - The strategy of "closing small stores and opening larger ones" continues, with a net increase in the number of stores and an expected increase in store area [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Inspur Information (000977.SZ) [1][4] Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue and net profit expectations in Q3, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [1][2] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be around 81.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 70% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 1.25 billion and 1.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61.34% to 74.24% [2] - The company is benefiting from increased capital expenditures by major domestic internet companies, which reached 22.9 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a 69% increase year-on-year [3] - The H20 AI server has gained significant market share, with ByteDance's orders reaching 320,000 to 330,000 units, indicating strong demand from internet giants [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is 108.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 64.1% [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 2.615 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [5] - The company's EPS for 2024 is estimated at 1.78 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.43, 18.69, and 16.18 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5] - The gross margin is expected to decline slightly to 9.0% in 2024, while the net margin is projected at 2.4% [5][6] Market Dynamics - The demand for AI servers is expected to remain robust, driven by the ongoing investments in self-developed chips by major internet companies [3] - The company is enhancing its R&D and delivery efficiency through digital systems and automated warehouses, significantly reducing order delivery times [3] - The long-term outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of sustained revenue growth as the market for self-developed chips expands [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 55.64% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 6.137 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 69.22% to 1.526 billion yuan [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.374 billion yuan, marking a 78.33% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 672 million yuan, which is a remarkable increase of 199.90% [2] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, reaching 65.63% for the first three quarters and 69.13% in Q3, driven by increased shipments of CPU and DCU products [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic demand for CPUs and AI chips, particularly due to the rapid advancement of the domestic AI industry and the U.S. chip export controls [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 65.63%, up 5.01 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 34.33%, an increase of 3.48 percentage points [3] - The company has increased its inventory significantly, reaching 3.896 billion yuan by the end of September 2024, up from 1.074 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.89, 1.36, and 1.92 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 127.09, 83.26, and 59.24 [4][5] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 6.012 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51% [5] - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.263 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.077 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 64.4% [5] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 59.7% in 2023 to 65.3% in 2024 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Haiguang Information (688041.SH) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue growth in Q3 2024, driven by increased product volume and a notable rise in gross margin [1][2] - The demand for domestic CPUs continues to rise due to the rapid advancement of the domestic information technology industry and AI chip market [3] - The company's inventory reached a record high of 3.896 billion yuan by the end of September 2024, reflecting proactive raw material procurement [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.64%, and a net profit of 1.526 billion yuan, up 69.22% [2] - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.33%, with net profit soaring by 199.90% to 672 million yuan [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 65.63%, an increase of 5.01 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin reaching a four-year high of 69.13% [3] Earnings Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.89, 1.36, and 1.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 127.09, 83.26, and 59.24 [4][5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,202.95 with a slight increase of 0.05% while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.01% to 9,965.02 [1] Industry Commentary: Photovoltaic Industry Chain Price Tracking - According to InfoLink, prices for polysilicon and battery cells remained stable this week, while prices for silicon wafers and modules declined [2] - Polysilicon prices: Dense material averaged 40.0 CNY/kg and granular silicon averaged 36.5 CNY/kg, both unchanged from last week. Transaction volumes were low, leading to minor price adjustments without affecting overall averages [2] - Silicon wafer prices: 150um 182mm monocrystalline wafers averaged 1.25 CNY/piece (unchanged), while 130um 182mm N-type wafers decreased by 2.8% to 1.05 CNY/piece. October production is expected to be 46-48 GW, a slight increase from September [2] - Battery cell prices: M10 cells averaged 0.28 CNY/W (unchanged), 210mm cells at 0.285 CNY/W (unchanged), and 182mm TOPCon cells at 0.27 CNY/W (unchanged). Demand remains below expectations, leading to continued production cuts [2] - Module prices: 182mm bifacial PERC modules averaged 0.68 CNY/W (down 2.9%) and 182mm TOPCon dual-glass modules at 0.71 CNY/W (down 2.7%). Inventory pressures persist with no signs of demand recovery [2] Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include leading companies in the photovoltaic storage sector such as Canadian Solar, Sungrow Power Supply, and Deye Technology. Other notable mentions include Aiko Solar, LONGi Green Energy, and several others in various segments of the photovoltaic industry [3]

Market Overview - The new materials sector experienced a decline this week, with the new materials index falling by 4.79%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 1.38% [3] - Over the past five trading days, the synthetic biology index rose by 9.49%, semiconductor materials increased by 25.94%, electronic chemicals grew by 19.21%, biodegradable plastics went up by 7.17%, industrial gases increased by 12.19%, and battery chemicals rose by 14.19% [3] Industry Commentary - Hainan Province has amended its "plastic ban" regulations, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of biodegradable plastics. The new regulations will take effect on December 1, 2024, and include stricter penalties for violations [3] - The establishment of the world's first bio-based polyester textile industry alliance by Huaheng is anticipated to accelerate the application of bio-based PTT. The global market size for bio-based PTT is estimated to be approximately 3.4 billion yuan in 2023, projected to reach 8.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% [4] Company Analysis: 聚灿光电 (300708.SZ) - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, up 107.02% year-on-year [5] - The third quarter saw a single-quarter revenue of 689 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.40%, while net profit decreased by 10.62% [5] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 14.10%, an increase of 4.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to economies of scale and improved product structure [6] - The net profit margin for the same period was 7.89%, up 3.67 percentage points year-on-year, due to effective cost control and reduced financial expenses [6] Investment Recommendations - Despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 performance, the overall performance and profitability of the company have significantly improved in the first three quarters. The acceleration of fundraising project implementation and the gradual release of production capacity are expected to enhance future profitability [7] - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 237 million yuan, 293 million yuan, and 430 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 95.5%, 23.8%, and 46.8%, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's profitability has improved year-on-year, with significant growth in net profit and revenue driven by high-end product sales and market recovery [1] - The company is accelerating investment in fundraising projects, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and long-term performance [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.61%, and a net profit of 1.60 billion yuan, up 107.02% [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.10%, an increase of 4.26 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.89%, up 3.67 percentage points [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.25 yuan [1] Future Projections - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.37 billion yuan, 2.93 billion yuan, and 4.30 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 95.5%, 23.8%, and 46.8% [1] - Corresponding EPS estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.35 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.64 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.4, 25.4, and 17.3 respectively [1][2]