分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 成长行业走强 A 股震荡上涨 ——市场分析 《市场分析：防御行业领涨 A 股震荡整理》 2024-05-08 周四 A 股市场平开高走、小幅震荡上涨，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，沪指 盘中在 3157 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡整理，盘中新能源、半导体、 军工以及工程机械等行业表现较好；酿酒、医药以及农牧饲渔等行业表现 较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅上涨的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指 数的平均市盈率分别为 13.34 倍、31.01 倍，处于近三年中位数以下水平， 市场估值依然处于较低区域，适合中长期布局。两市周四成交金额 9057 亿元，处于近三年日均成交量中位数区域。新国九条发布，推动市场走向 成熟，提振市场长期信心。制造业 PMI 继续处于扩张区间，地产销售有所 改善。政治局会议定调三中全会，为未来数年经济改革和社会发展指明方 向。美联储主席表态加息结束，海外市场出现反弹。当前整体环境和市场 预期有利于市场继续向上，未来股指总体预计将保持震荡上扬格局，同时 仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及 ...

证券Ⅱ 分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 核心业务优势稳固，重配债轻配股推动业绩逆势连续增长 z hangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 ——方正证券(601901) 2023 年年报及 2024年一季报点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(首次) 市场数据(2024-05-08) 发布日期：2024年05月09日 收盘价(元) 8.76 2023年年报及 2024年一季报概况:方正证券2023年实现营业收 一年内最高/最低(元) 10.05/6.29 入71.19亿元，同比-8.46%；实现归母净利21.52亿元，同比+0.21%； 沪深300指数 3,630.22 加权平均净资产收益率4.88%，同比-0.21个百分点。2023年拟10派 市净率(倍) 1.56 0.13元（含税）。24Q1实现营业收入19.85亿元，同比+11.97%；实现 总市值(亿元) 721.13 归母净利7.84亿元，同比+41.06%。 流通市值(亿元) 721.13 点评：1.23 年客户数和代买市场份额双升，机构经纪业务快速破局，合 基础数据(2024-03-31) 并口径 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the market index [2][19]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.896 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.548 billion yuan, up 2.58% year-on-year [4][6]. - The brokerage business has seen a record high market share in trading commissions, while the company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the equity market, which may enhance performance flexibility [4][18]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.09% and 46.82%, respectively, indicating challenges in the current market environment [6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 68.96 billion yuan, with a net profit of 15.48 billion yuan, and an EPS of 0.26 yuan [4][6][22]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.20 yuan per share, which accounts for 42.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][19]. Business Segments - Brokerage business accounted for 40.5% of net income, with a trading commission market share of 1.91%, up 0.10 percentage points year-on-year [7][9]. - Investment banking revenue decreased by 24.71% in 2023, with a significant drop in equity financing, while bond underwriting saw a recovery [10][11]. - Asset management revenue also declined by 9.74%, but public fund business showed growth, with net asset scale increasing by 43.80% [13][19]. Future Outlook - The company expects EPS of 0.23 yuan and 0.26 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding BVPS of 5.95 yuan and 6.25 yuan [19][22]. - The introduction of new major shareholders is anticipated to enhance the company's regional advantages and growth potential [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][24]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance despite adverse water conditions, achieving a 14.81% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2023 [7][8]. - The acquisition of Yun Chuan Company has enhanced the company's hydropower capacity, contributing to a more robust operational framework [8]. - The company is optimistic about future water conditions and expects improved profitability from its hydropower stations in 2024-2026 [14]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 781.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 272.39 billion yuan, up 14.81% [7]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a significant revenue increase of 28.23% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 86.98% [7]. - For the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 156.41 billion yuan, a 1.58% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 39.67 billion yuan, up 9.80% [9]. Operational Highlights - The company’s hydropower capacity reached 71.795 million kilowatts after the acquisition of Yun Chuan, representing approximately 17% of the national operational hydropower capacity [8]. - Despite facing challenges from reduced water levels, the company managed to increase its total power generation by 5.34% in 2023 [8]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company in 2023 was 281.28 yuan per megawatt-hour, an increase of 11.56 yuan compared to 2022 [10]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a total power generation of 3,074 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, contingent on favorable water conditions [10]. - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders are optimistic, with estimates of 329.53 billion yuan, 355.19 billion yuan, and 373.34 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [14]. - The company is actively expanding its renewable energy initiatives, including pumped storage and smart energy projects, to enhance its operational efficiency and market position [12].

分析师：牟国洪 登记编码：S0730513030002 mough@ccnew.com 021-50586980 业绩短期承压，氟化工多元布局 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

分析师：李泽森 登记编码：S0730523080001 lizs1@ccnew.com 021-50586702 ——明泰铝业(601677)公司点评报告 工业金属 风险提示：（1）美联储加息超预期；（2）国际宏观经济下行；（3）地 缘政治冲突加剧；（4）行业政策变化；（5）行业竞争加剧；（6）铝价 大幅波动；（7）下游需求不及预期；（8）公司产能供给不及预期 铝板带箔销量保持增长，重点项目建设持 续推进 第1页 / 共5页 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 ⚫ 公司现有项目不断增速提效，重点项目建设持续推进。公司坚持 审慎投资原则，不断提升明晟新材、明泰科技、泰鸿新材等现有项 目的运行效率，借鉴国外先进技术改良熔铸工序，通过轧机改造、 热轧机加装在线撇油装置、调整全油回收参数，"多快好省"的使 其充分释放产能。持续推进重点项目建设，义瑞新材年产 70 万吨 绿色新型铝合金材料项目完成 1+4 热连轧精轧机、1850 冷轧机等 机列建设工作，助力公司产销量早日达到 200 万吨/年，并向更高 水平进发。公司不断引进国内外先进的生产设备和技术，并结合在 铝加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][25]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance despite adverse water conditions, achieving a 14.81% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2023 [7][8]. - The acquisition of Yun Chuan Company has enhanced the company's hydropower capacity, now totaling 71.795 million kilowatts, representing approximately 17% of the national operational hydropower capacity [8]. - The company is optimistic about future water conditions and expects improved profitability from the newly integrated hydropower stations [14]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 78.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.239 billion yuan, up 14.81% [7][8]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a significant revenue increase of 28.23% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 86.98% [7]. - For the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.641 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.58%, and a net profit of 3.967 billion yuan, up 9.80% year-on-year [7][9]. Operational Highlights - The company has successfully transitioned to a new operational model with the integration of six hydropower stations, which has led to an increase in electricity generation despite challenging water conditions [8]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company in 2023 was 281.28 yuan per megawatt-hour, reflecting an increase of 11.56 yuan per megawatt-hour from 2022 [10]. - The company has made significant strides in diversifying its energy portfolio, including investments in pumped storage, smart energy solutions, and international projects [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in hydropower generation from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of 32.953 billion yuan, 35.519 billion yuan, and 37.334 billion yuan respectively [14]. - The report highlights the potential for increased profitability as the company benefits from the full operational capacity of the newly acquired hydropower stations [14].

电源设备 分析师：唐俊男 多晶硅价格低迷拖累业绩表现，周期低谷 登记编码：S0730519050003 考验成本控制能力和资金实力 t angjn@ccnew.com 021-50586738 ——大全能源(688303)2023 年年报和 2024 年一季 度报告点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(维持) 市场数据(2024-05-08) 发布日期：2024年05月08日 收盘价(元) 24.79 事件： 一年内最高/最低(元) 44.53/23.70 公司公布2023年年报和2024年第一季度报告。 沪深300指数 3,659.01 市净率(倍) 1.22 2023 年公司实现营业总收入 163.29 亿元，同比下滑 47.22%；归属 流通市值(亿元) 541.81 于上市公司股东的净利润 57.63 亿元，同比下滑 69.86%；经营活动产生 的现金流量净额 87.41 亿元，同比下滑 43.12%；加权平均净资产收益率 基础数据(2024-03-31) 13.30%，同比下滑48.38个百分点。公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金 每股净资产(元) 20.62 红利人民币4.18元（含税），公司不送红股 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [18][27]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the upward trend in the viscose filament industry, driven by increasing domestic demand for traditional Chinese clothing and the recovery of the viscose filament prices [2][27]. - The company's first-quarter performance showed significant improvement, with a net profit of 0.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 257% [18][27]. - The report highlights the potential for margin recovery in the spandex business, which has been under pressure but is expected to improve due to reduced raw material costs and stable demand [11][27]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 19.67 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.91% [18][19]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 0.29 yuan and 0.37 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.56 and 12.69 [27][31]. - The financial forecasts indicate a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 419 million yuan in 2024 and 547 million yuan in 2025, reflecting significant growth from a loss of 42 million yuan in 2023 [19][31]. Industry Overview - The viscose filament industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with demand driven by the rise of traditional Chinese fashion and a tightening supply situation [2][11]. - The report notes that the company holds a leading position in the viscose filament market, with a production capacity that accounts for approximately 40% of the national total [18][27]. - The spandex market is currently at a low point but is expected to see marginal improvements as supply constraints and demand stabilize [11][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [21]. Core Views - The company has shown significant performance recovery, with a 2023 revenue of 11.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.30%, and a net profit of 4.827 billion yuan, up 73.02% year-on-year [5][6]. - The advertising industry is experiencing an upward trend, with the outdoor advertising market in China growing by 11.01% in 2023 [6]. - The company plans to distribute a high dividend of 47.66 billion yuan, which is 98.74% of its net profit for the year [8]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 6.63 yuan - One-year high/low: 7.76/5.58 yuan - Market capitalization: 95.752 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 5.11 [1]. Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 11.904 billion yuan, up 26.30% year-on-year - 2023 net profit: 4.827 billion yuan, up 73.02% year-on-year - Q1 2024 revenue: 2.729 billion yuan, up 6.02% year-on-year - Q1 2024 net profit: 1.04 billion yuan, up 10.50% year-on-year [5][6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for 2023: 65.48%, up 5.77 percentage points year-on-year - Q1 2024 gross margin: 61.69%, relatively stable year-on-year [6][8]. Client Structure - Daily consumer goods clients account for 56.23% of revenue, a historical high - Significant growth in revenue from internet clients (26.38%) and entertainment clients (29.99%) [6]. Media Coverage - The company has expanded its media points to cover over 280 cities in China and 95 overseas cities - The number of self-operated elevator TV media devices reached 1.051 million [7]. Future Outlook - EPS projections for 2024-2026 are 0.36 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.44 yuan respectively - Corresponding PE ratios are 18.22, 16.39, and 15.04 based on the closing price [9].