分析师：邹臣 登记编码：S0730523100001 zouchen@ccnew.com 021-50581991 半导体 AI 算力芯片是"AI 时代的引擎" ，河南省 着力布局 证券研究报告-行业深度分析 半导体相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源，中原证券 -18% -8% 3% 13% 24% 34% 45% 55% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 半导体 沪深300 相关报告 《半导体行业月报：国内 RISC-V 生态加速 发展，存储器价格有望逐步回升》 2025-03- 10 《半导体行业月报：美国半导体出口管制进 一步升级，DeepSeek 热潮有望推动端侧 AI 发展》 2025-02-10 《半导体行业月报：豆包 AI 生态加速发展， 关注国内 AI 算力产业链》 2025-01-10 联系人：李智 楼 报告要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第 1 页 / 共 36 页 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 20 日 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路 10号 18 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in various sectors, particularly in technology and consumer goods, driven by supportive government policies and market dynamics [5][8][37] - The A-share market is experiencing a structural shift, with a focus on defensive sectors and growth industries, indicating a balanced investment approach [9][12][13] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,419.56, up by 1.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.26% to 10,978.30 [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.24 and 38.63, respectively, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [9][12] International Market Performance - Major international indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 0.67% and the S&P 500 down by 0.45%, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.62% [4] Economic Indicators - M2 money supply grew by 7% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 0.1%, indicating stable liquidity conditions [8] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, maintaining historical lows, which supports borrowing and investment [8] Industry Analysis - The chemical sector is experiencing a price decline, with a focus on potassium fertilizer and organic silicon industries showing signs of recovery [14][15] - The software industry is projected to grow at a slower pace, with expected revenue of 13.73 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 10% increase [17] - The AI sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with significant investments in computing power and applications, indicating a robust growth trajectory [19][21][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as electric power, banking, and military industries for short-term investment opportunities [12][13] - In the semiconductor industry, the report emphasizes the potential for recovery in memory prices and the growth of the RISC-V ecosystem, which is expected to expand significantly [28][30] Sector-Specific Insights - The gaming industry is projected to grow, driven by high-quality game releases and increasing competitiveness in overseas markets [34][35] - The renewable energy sector is set to advance with government initiatives aimed at achieving carbon neutrality, highlighting opportunities in wind and solar energy [37]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on March 19, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3438 points, closing at 3426.43 points, down 0.10% [2][6][14] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10979.05 points, down 0.32%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.28% [6][14] - The total trading volume for both markets was 15071 billion, slightly lower than the previous trading day [6][14] Sector Performance - The banking, electricity, automotive, and household light industry sectors performed well, while gaming, electronic components, communication equipment, and software development sectors lagged [2][3][14] - The banking sector saw a rise of 1.39%, electricity and public utilities increased by 0.88%, and automotive sector rose by 0.76% [9] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index were 14.54 times and 38.98 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation compared to the past three years [3][14] - The current trading volume is above the median of the past three years, suggesting a healthy market activity level [3][14] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market may see a shift towards technology leadership, defensive dividend stocks, and consumption recovery driven by domestic demand [3][14] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities while balancing defensive and growth strategies, particularly in the electricity, automotive, banking, and household light industry sectors [3][14]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a notable performance in the power, banking, automotive, and light consumer goods sectors, while sectors like gaming, electronic components, and software development lagged [2][3]. - The current average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.54 times and 38.98 times, respectively, which are at the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14]. - The total trading volume on March 19 was 15,071 billion, above the median of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments, capital flows, and external market conditions, with a focus on sectors such as technology innovation, consumer stimulation, and green economy initiatives [3][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On March 19, the A-share market faced resistance at 3,438 points, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,426.43 points, down 0.10% [6][7]. - The banking sector led the gains with a 1.39% increase, followed by the power sector at 0.88% and the automotive sector at 0.76% [9]. - Over 60% of stocks declined, with significant outflows from sectors like software development and electronic components [6][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift towards defensive sectors in the short term, with high-dividend assets showing stable performance, while technology growth sectors face valuation pressures [3][14]. - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities while balancing defensive and growth strategies, particularly in the power, automotive, banking, and light consumer goods sectors [3][14].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable and transparent business environment for fostering innovation and entrepreneurship in local markets, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's remarks during his visit to Guizhou [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has set goals for the renewable energy green power certificate market, aiming for a significant increase in self-consumption of green electricity by 2030 [5] - The report notes that the A-share market has shown slight fluctuations, with various sectors such as shipping and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while technology and consumer sectors face challenges [8][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,429.76 with a slight increase of 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.52% to 11,014.75 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.53 and 38.71 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 saw a modest increase of 0.62% [4] Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the gaming industry is experiencing a revival due to favorable policies and market conditions, with a focus on AI integration and consumer demand [18] - The renewable energy sector is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at promoting green energy consumption and improving market structures [5] - The chemical industry is witnessing a price correction, with a focus on potassium fertilizers and organic silicon as areas of potential growth due to improved supply-demand dynamics [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the consumer sector, particularly in food and beverage, is poised for recovery, driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [14][17] - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow significantly, with AI applications driving demand for computing power and related infrastructure [27][34] - The RISC-V ecosystem is rapidly developing, with significant growth potential anticipated in the coming years, making it a key area for investment [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "outperform" investment rating for the semiconductor industry, with a focus on the RISC-V ecosystem and memory sectors [20][34][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI application market is entering a phase of rapid acceleration, driven by three key factors: technological advancements, increased investment, and supportive policies [37]. - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, with a focus on quality life services including gaming and entertainment [18]. - The renewable energy sector is projected to see significant growth, particularly in the green power certificate market, with expectations for a more robust market framework by 2030 [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,429.76, reflecting a 0.11% increase [3]. - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.53 and 38.71, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][12]. International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62% [4]. Industry Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer spending policies, which are expected to catalyze market performance in various sectors, particularly in consumer goods and services [13][14]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a price correction, with a focus on potassium fertilizers and organic silicon, which are expected to see improved market conditions [20][21]. Technology and AI - The report notes a significant increase in domestic computing power investments, with major platform companies actively entering the market [22]. - The AI sector is highlighted for its rapid growth, with companies like Manus achieving breakthroughs in AI agent technology, which is expected to drive demand for computational resources [25][29]. Gaming and Entertainment - The gaming industry is projected to benefit from a favorable policy environment, with significant growth in consumer demand anticipated [16][19]. - The report mentions the success of films like "Nezha 2," which has significantly boosted box office revenues, indicating a recovery in the film market [19]. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector is set for growth, with the government promoting green energy consumption and the establishment of a more comprehensive market framework for green power certificates by 2030 [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" investment rating for the chemical industry, particularly focusing on potassium fertilizer and organic silicon sectors [15][26]. Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, leading to a continuous price increase since 2024. The report highlights the concentrated global supply and China's high dependency on imports [15]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as new production capacities stabilize and demand grows in electronics and renewable energy sectors [16]. - The software industry is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2024, with software business revenue expected to reach 13.73 trillion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, down from 13.4% in 2023 [17]. - The AI sector is entering a rapid growth phase, driven by advancements in large model capabilities and increased enterprise-level deployment needs [31][33]. - The gaming industry is showing robust growth potential, with a significant increase in market size and player engagement, supported by high-quality game development and favorable policies [34][35]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical sector's valuation is currently below historical averages, with a TTM P/E ratio of 24.11, suggesting potential for growth [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of potassium fertilizer due to its resource scarcity in China and the ongoing price increases driven by global supply constraints [15]. Software Industry - The software sector is facing a slowdown, with a projected revenue growth of 10% in 2024, indicating a need for strategic focus on sub-sectors [17]. - The report notes a decrease in the import dependency of integrated circuits, reflecting a shift towards domestic production [17]. AI and Technology - The AI sector is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant investments from major tech companies and a focus on enterprise applications [19][33]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape of AI models, noting the emergence of cost-effective solutions that enhance deployment capabilities [31][33]. Gaming Industry - The gaming market is experiencing a surge in demand, with a notable increase in player numbers and revenue per user, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [34]. - The report points out the competitive advantage of Chinese games in overseas markets, bolstered by experience and quality improvements [35]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is in an upward cycle, with strong sales growth and improving price conditions for memory products expected in the latter half of 2025 [28][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving semiconductor demand, particularly in the context of new product launches and technological advancements [28][29].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a small upward trend, facing resistance around 3437 points during trading on March 18, 2025 [2][3][6] - Key sectors performing well included precious metals, shipping ports, electric grid equipment, and medical services, while gaming, aerospace, liquor, and automotive services lagged behind [2][3][6] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index were 14.53 times and 38.71 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14] Group 2 - The total trading volume for both markets on March 18 was 15,645 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][14] - The report highlights a focus on structural opportunities in sectors such as shipping ports, non-ferrous metals, electric grid equipment, and batteries, as short-term capital preferences shift towards defensive sectors [3][14] - The report anticipates a market characterized by technology leadership, dividend defense, consumption recovery, and domestic demand-driven growth as macroeconomic policies continue to be implemented [3][14]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a notable performance in sectors such as precious metals, shipping ports, electric grid equipment, and medical services, while sectors like gaming, aerospace, liquor, and automotive services lagged [2][3]. - The current average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.53 times and 38.71 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14]. - The market is expected to see a shift towards technology leadership, defensive dividend stocks, consumption recovery, and domestic demand-driven growth, with a focus on structural investment opportunities [3][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On March 18, the A-share market opened high but faced resistance around 3437 points, leading to a slight retreat in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3429.76 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.61% [6][7]. - The total trading volume for both markets was 15,645 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][14]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors such as shipping ports, non-ferrous metals, electric grid equipment, and batteries for short-term investment opportunities [3][14]. - The ongoing macroeconomic adjustments and growth-promoting policies are expected to support the market, with a particular emphasis on technology innovation and green economy measures [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [27]. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown a significant recovery in performance, with a revenue of 5.229 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 838 million yuan, up 15.97% year-on-year [8][10]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by a substantial increase in the sales volume of anode materials, which rose to 216,500 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 53.65% [9][10]. - The company aims to become a global leader in lithium battery anode materials, benefiting from the continuous growth in the sales of new energy vehicles and the production of power batteries in China [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.229 billion yuan, with an operating profit of 1.031 billion yuan and a net profit of 838 million yuan. The basic earnings per share were 3.22 yuan, with a diluted return on equity of 13.38% [8][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.0 yuan per 10 shares [8]. Market Trends - The sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 12.859 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.10%, indicating a strong market demand for power batteries [8][9]. - The production of power batteries and other batteries in China reached 1,096.8 GWh in 2024, a growth of 40.96% year-on-year, with exports contributing significantly to this growth [8][9]. Industry Outlook - The anode materials industry is expected to continue growing, driven by demand from both power and energy storage sectors. The shipment of anode materials in China reached 2.08 million tons in 2024, up 26.06% year-on-year [9][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its production capacity and has plans for international expansion, including a project in Malaysia with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons of lithium-ion battery anode materials [10][12]. Competitive Position - The company has established strong customer relationships, with major clients including CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech, which account for 87.52% of its revenue in 2024 [9][10]. - The company is investing in R&D to develop differentiated products, with R&D expenses reaching 175 million yuan in 2024, representing 3.35% of its revenue [9][10].