qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 会员业务创新高，广告业务回暖 ——芒果超媒(300413)公司点评报告 证券研究报告-公司点评报告 买入(维持) 传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 市场数据(2025-01-23) | 收盘价(元) | 27.15 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 30.65/18.26 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,803.74 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.25 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 277.39 | | 基础数据(2024-09-30) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 12.06 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | -0.17 | | --- | --- | | 毛利率(%) | 29.15 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 6.40 | | 资产负债率(%) | 30.69 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 187,072.08/102,170.0 | | | 0 | B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -18% ...

证券Ⅱ 分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 相关报告 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2024 年 11 月 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 2024-12-27 《证券Ⅱ行业年度策略：经营环境转暖，盈利 预期向上》 2024-12-05 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2024 年 10 月 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 2024-11-27 联系人：李智 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2024 年 12 月回顾及 2025 年 1 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -14% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 liulan@shenghongcap.com via Wind 风险提示：1.权益及固收市场波动导致证券行业基本面改善的程度不及 预期；2.股价短期波动风险；3.资本市场改革的政策效果不及预期 1. 2024 年 12 月券商板块行情回顾 1.1. ...

证券Ⅱ 分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2024 年 12 月回顾及 2025 年 1 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -14% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2024 年 11 月 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 2024-12-27 《证券Ⅱ行业年度策略：经营环境转暖，盈利 预期向上》 2024-12-05 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2024 年 10 月 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 2024-11-27 联系人：李智 风险提示：1.权益及固收市场波动导致证券行业基本面改善的程度不及 预期；2.股价短期波动风险；3.资本市场改革的政策效果不及预期 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共11页 发布日期：2 ...

分析师：张刚 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 24 日 【财经要闻】 1、商务部谈 2025 年进一步吸收外资举措时指出，一视同仁支持内外资 企业参与大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新、政府采购、招投标等活 动，为外资企业提供公平竞争的环境。 2、国家金融监管总局：将进一步优化完善保险资金投资政策，鼓励保 险资金稳步提升股市投资比例，特别是大型国有保险公司要发挥"头 雁"作用，力争每年新增保费 30%用于投资股市，力争保险资金投资股 市比例在现有基础上继续稳步提高。 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3,230.16 | 0.51 | | 深证成指 | 10,176.17 | -0.49 | ...

计算机 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 美国制裁密集出台，全面围堵对我国的 AI 算力供应能力 ——计算机行业专题 证券研究报告-行业专题报告 同步大市(维持) 计算机相对沪深 300 指数表现 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 第 1 页 / 共 16 页 请阅读最后一页各项声明 《计算机行业月报：AI 模型成果密集发布， 制裁或将全面升级》 2025-01-10 《计算机行业深度分析：经济工作会议聚焦 人工智能+，地方发力产业建设》 2024-12- 20 《计算机行业月报：AI 应用潜力亟待释放， 禁令下国产化持续深入》 2024-12-09 联系人：李智 投资要点： 在美国政府换届前期，美国制裁方案接连出台，已经形成了对 我国 AI 算力供应全面围堵之势。我们希望通过梳理制裁政策出台的 情况和制裁的行业背景，对后续国内 AI 发展做出预判。 风险提示：国际局势的不确定性；上游企业削减开支。 相关报告 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 24 日 -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% ...

Market Performance - Domestic market indices showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,213.62, down by 0.89%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10,225.87, down by 0.77% [3] - International markets also experienced declines with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 30,772.79, down by 0.67%, and the S&P 500 closing at 3,801.78, down by 0.45% [4] Macro Strategy - The semiconductor industry led gains in the A-share market, with the market showing a slight upward trend [5] - The communication and home appliance sectors also led gains, with the A-share market showing a slight upward movement [5] - The photovoltaic and media sectors led gains, with the A-share market consolidating [5] - Growth sectors led gains, with the A-share market showing an upward trend [5] Industry and Company Analysis - The pig farming industry saw a decline in prices during the peak season, while pet food export data continued to improve [6] - Humanoid robots are accelerating their deployment, with continued recommendations for the robotics, construction machinery, and shipbuilding sectors [6] - A Chinese team developed a new diamond film preparation technology, and the Power Diamond semiconductor high-power heat sink diamond project has been completed and put into production [6] - The medical device industry in Henan has shown significant growth, with the industry scale exceeding 45 billion yuan in 2022, doubling from 2018 [23] - The CES exhibition highlighted AI applications, and the upcoming Spring Festival holiday is expected to boost the film market [24] - The lithium battery sector saw a decline, but new energy vehicle sales in December 2024 reached 1.596 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.01% [26] - The chemical industry saw a decline, but the acrylic acid industry chain performed well [28] - The AI model ecosystem is accelerating, with a focus on the domestic AI computing power industry chain [34] Key Data Updates - Recent restricted share unlock details show that companies like Longyuan Power and Zhangjiagang Bank have significant shares unlocked [41] - The top 10 active stocks in the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect include Industrial Fulian and ZTE, with significant trading volumes [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [10][22]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant losses due to the downturn in the polysilicon industry, with projected net losses for 2024 ranging from 2.6 billion to 3.1 billion yuan [6][9]. - The polysilicon industry is entering a capacity reduction cycle, with expectations of a slow recovery in 2025 as supply and demand dynamics improve [9]. - The company demonstrates strong cost control capabilities and robust financial strength, which are crucial for navigating the industry's downturn [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company reported a substantial loss in Q4 2024, with losses estimated between 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan, primarily due to oversupply and significant price declines in the polysilicon market [9]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company recorded asset impairment losses of 1.367 billion yuan, with further impairments expected in Q4 [9]. Industry Outlook - The polysilicon industry is facing a supply surplus, leading to a drastic reduction in production from a peak of 189,500 tons to 103,800 tons by December 2024, a decrease of 45.22% [9]. - The industry is expected to operate at less than 50% capacity, with many major manufacturers reducing output [9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of -2.701 billion yuan for 2024, with a recovery to 1.413 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.227 billion yuan in 2026 [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are -1.26 yuan for 2024, 0.66 yuan for 2025, and 1.50 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31.26 and 13.69 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][12].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 22 日 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3,242.62 | -0.05 | | 深证成指 | 10,305.69 | 0.48 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,832.61 | 0.08 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,639.14 | 0.04 | | 中证 500 | 5,633.92 | 0.35 | | 中证 1000 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 360 million to 400 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.40% to 71.55%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 320 million and 370 million yuan, with a growth rate of 42.26% to 64.49% [8]. - The pet food industry is experiencing positive export data and expanding market size, with a 21.4% year-on-year increase in pet feed production in the first half of 2024. The export volume of pet food in December 2024 reached 32,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.6% [8]. - The company's product profitability has significantly improved, driven by the development of its own brands and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products. The domestic business has become profitable, and overseas operations are steadily growing [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3,248 million yuan in 2022 to 5,807 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.89% [9]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 106 million yuan in 2022 to 581 million yuan in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 120.12% in 2023 and 58.79% in 2024 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.36 yuan in 2022 to 1.97 yuan in 2026, reflecting the company's growth trajectory [9]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in China's pet industry, benefiting from both domestic and international market growth. The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on optimizing product structure and expanding its global supply chain [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is projected to be 32.07 for 2024, decreasing to 20.45 by 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation range considering the company's growth potential [10].

分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 猪价旺季不旺，宠物食品出口数据持续 向好 ——农林牧渔行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 盈利预测和投资评级 | 公司简称 | 23EPS 24EPS | | 24PE | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | -0.79 | 3.67 | 11.75 | 增持 | | 海大集团 | 1.66 | 2.72 | 15.49 | 增持 | | 乖宝宠物 | 1.15 | 1.38 | 46.82 | 增持 | | 中宠股份 | 0.80 | 1.26 | 23.64 | 增持 | | 佩蒂股份 | -0.04 | 0.67 11716 | 17.63 | 增持 | | 秋乐种业 | 0.48 | 0.30 | 43.76 | 增持 | 农林牧渔相对沪深 300 指数表现 农林牧渔 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业月报：鸡价延续反弹趋势， 宠物食品出口数据维持同比增长》 2024-12- 25 《农林牧渔行业年度策略：周期与成长共 舞》 ...