浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 康诺亚（2162.HK）：近期管理层线下 路演总结 近期我们组织了公司管理层香港线下路演。整体来说，CM310 商业化 进展顺利，一季度销售放量令人满意，下一代核心管线产品 CM512 预 计有望于 3Q25 公布 1 期数据，多款出海分子有望于 2026 年读出海外 数据。更多细节请见下文。重申我们"买入"评级和 60 港元目标价。 ● CM310 商业化进展顺利，一季度销售指标达成度令人满意：CM310 商业化团队搭建以及下半年医保谈判准入是公司 2025 年工作的重中 之重。（1）目前商业化团队共计 300+人，预计在 2025 年底之前扩充 至 500 人规模。快速补充的商业化团队今年的目标任务在于将更多的 医院及皮肤科/鼻科医生破冰，为明年医保放量打好坚实的基础；（2） 今年医保谈判预计 3 个适应症均会参与谈判，争取将 AD 和慢鼻适应 症明年纳入医保，过敏性鼻炎将根据届时医保谈判降价情况灵活决定 是否纳入医保；（3）一季度商业化进展顺利：目前公司已完成 29 个省 份挂网工作，医院准入较此前管理层料想的更加顺利，主要得益于 CM310 在特应性皮炎上的优秀数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.CH) with a target price of RMB 69.2, representing a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of RMB 59.8 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the weak performance in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the company's proactive inventory clearance, which has now returned to a healthier level. The sales performance in Q1 2025 is expected to be stable, and the company is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to a lower sales base in the second half of the year [1][5]. - The company is making progress in adjusting its product and channel structure, with expectations for more positive changes by 2026. The growth of brands like Lebao and regional products is helping to balance the product mix, which has been heavily reliant on the high-end product Uusu [1][5][11]. - The report highlights a shift in sales channels, with the proportion of on-premise sales decreasing from 55% in 2019 to 44% in 2024. The company plans to continue expanding its off-premise channels in 2025 through new product launches and marketing innovations [5][11]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the report forecasts a revenue of RMB 14,937 million, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,157 million, a 3.8% increase from 2024 [7][9]. - The average selling price is projected to remain under pressure due to weak market demand for high-end beers, despite a favorable outlook on raw material costs [5][11]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected gross margin of 42.1% for 2025, with a stable cost structure anticipated due to declining barley prices [7][9][10].

首席消费分析师 richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 中国飞鹤（6186.HK）：持续加大品牌 投入，引领行业整合 飞鹤 2H24 净利润不及市场预期，主要是由于功能营养产品（包括成 人奶粉）短期清理库存拖累整体毛利率的表现。然而，公司婴配粉业 务 2H24 收入增速符合预期，且利润率依然保持稳健。管理层表示有 信心 2025 年收入增速快于 2024 年，目标 2025 年毛利率同比小幅提 升。我们认为，飞鹤作为行业领导者持续引领婴配粉市场集中度提升 的趋势将在未来持续。我们上调目标价至 6.65 港元。基于飞鹤较高的 派息率，我们维持"买入"评级。 投资风险：行业竞争加剧；星飞帆品牌力下降；原材料成本大幅上升。 林闻嘉 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | 评级 | | | --- | --- | | 目标价（港元） | 6.65 | | 潜在升幅/降幅 | +13.3% | | 股息率 | 6.0% | | 预期总回报 | +19 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Yangjie Technology, with a target price raised to RMB 55.7, indicating a potential upside of 20% [2][4]. Core Insights - Yangjie Technology is expected to continue its growth momentum into 2025, following a trend of improving revenue, gross margin, and net profit throughout 2024, outperforming the overall power industry [2][3]. - Despite a temporary adjustment in demand for new energy sources like photovoltaics, strong growth is anticipated in automotive electronics, consumer sectors, and overseas markets, supported by national policies and market recovery [2][3]. - The company plans to acquire Dongguan Better to enhance its product lineup in circuit protection components, which is expected to contribute to long-term growth in automotive electronics, AI servers, and international markets [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In Q4 2024, Yangjie Technology achieved revenue of RMB 1.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with a gross margin of 38.7%, marking a significant improvement [3][14]. - The company’s net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 330 million, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth and a 35% increase from the previous quarter [3][14]. - The financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue of RMB 7.01 billion, a 16% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach RMB 1.23 billion, representing a 23% increase [5][15]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a 1.8% risk-free rate and a growth rate of 15% for 2030-2034, with a WACC of 11.5% [4]. - The current P/E ratio of 20.6x is considered attractive compared to historical averages [4][20].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 比亚迪股份（1211.HK）/比亚迪（002594.CH）： 预期 2025 年智驾渗透率大幅提升，推动新 能源车销量和利润大幅增长 上调比亚迪 2025/2026 年盈利预测，上调比亚迪股份（1211.HK）目标 价至 481.0 港元，潜在升幅 18%；上调比亚迪（002594.CH）目标价至 人民币 469.0 元，潜在升幅 21%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收 | 602,315 | 777,102 | 966,125 | 1,097,526 | 1,235,983 | | 营收同比增速 | 42% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 13% | | 毛利率 | 20.2% | 19.4% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.6% | | 净利润 | 30,041 | 40,254 | 50,211 | 60,521 | 70,286 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 50, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 40 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's 2024 performance slightly exceeded previous positive earnings forecasts, with revenue reaching RMB 4.052 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.8%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 1.07 billion, up 277.2% year-on-year [5][7]. - The company expects to achieve a revenue growth rate of over 35% in 2025, supported by a strong order backlog of USD 990 million, which is a 71.2% increase year-on-year [5][7]. - North America is identified as a key growth driver, with revenue contribution from this region increasing to 50% in 2024, up from 40% in 2023 [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: RMB 2,124 million - 2024: RMB 4,052 million (90.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 5,569 million (37.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,618 million (36.8% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 9,987 million (31.1% YoY growth) [7][9]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: RMB 284 million - 2024: RMB 1,070 million (277.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 1,302 million (21.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 1,739 million (33.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 2,356 million (35.5% YoY growth) [7][9]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin improved to 30.6% in 2024 from 26.3% in 2023, with adjusted net profit margin expected to remain stable [5][7]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy - The company plans to invest approximately RMB 1.4 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, primarily for expanding production capacity in Singapore and Wuxi [5][7]. - WuXi AppTec aims to optimize operations to mitigate potential impacts on gross margins from new capacity coming online [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price adjusted to $5.3 for NIO.US and HKD 41.1 for NIO-SW, representing potential upside of 17% and 15% respectively [2][4]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to launch nine new models this year, including the ET9 and L90, which will drive sales growth. The company is also focusing on improving dealership efficiency, with noticeable cost improvements anticipated starting in Q2 [9]. - The fourth quarter results were generally in line with expectations, with revenue of RMB 19.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a gross margin of 11.7% [12]. - The valuation of NIO is currently low, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.7x, indicating potential for upward movement as fundamentals improve [9]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for NIO from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 55.6 billion - 2024: RMB 65.7 billion - 2025: RMB 80.3 billion - 2026: RMB 106.4 billion - 2027: RMB 141.0 billion - The revenue growth rates are projected at 13% for 2023, 18% for 2024, 22% for 2025, 33% for 2026, and 32% for 2027 [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 5.5% in 2023 to 14.2% in 2027, while net losses are projected to decrease from RMB 21.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 9.0 billion in 2027 [3][10]. Market Expectations - The current market price for NIO is $4.50, with a 52-week price range of $3.61 to $7.71. The total market capitalization is approximately $9.4 billion [4]. - For NIO-SW, the current price is HKD 35.90, with a 52-week range of HKD 28.6 to HKD 60.7, and a total market capitalization of around HKD 74.9 billion [5]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-sales ratio of 1.0x for automotive sales and 1.1x for other sales, leading to a target price of $5.3 for NIO and HKD 41.1 for NIO-SW [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, raising the target price to HKD 60.5, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HKD 52.05 [1][3][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth across all business segments by 2025, including acoustic, optical, precision sensing, structural components, sensors, and semiconductors. The short-term growth is supported by favorable policies in China for consumer electronics, with robust demand for components such as acoustic, optical, motors, metal frames, and cooling systems for mobile phones and laptops [1][11]. - The automotive acoustic business has begun to penetrate leading new energy vehicle manufacturers, indicating potential for significant growth. Additionally, the company is expanding into robotics, establishing a foundation for long-term growth [11]. - The company's financial performance in the second half of 2024 showed strong revenue growth of 44% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement to 22.5%. Operating profit and net profit also saw substantial increases, aligning with previous profit guidance [11][13]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in 2023 to RMB 39,767 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [2][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 740 million in 2023 to RMB 2,831 million in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2][12]. - The target price is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, applying different price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to various business segments, resulting in a target price of HKD 60.5 [11][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $26.5 for US shares and HK$41.3 for Hong Kong shares, indicating a potential upside of 64% and 60% respectively [1][6][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved sustainable profitability one year ahead of previous guidance, with a net profit of $37.73 million in 2024, significantly exceeding market expectations and driving an 8% increase in stock prices [2][4]. - The oncology segment's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach $363.4 million, aligning with prior guidance, driven by strong sales of drugs like furmonertinib and sugemalimab [2][3]. - The next-generation technology platform, ATTC, is set to be a key focus for future R&D, with plans to invest approximately $1.4 billion in cash resources [4][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects oncology segment revenues to reach between $350 million and $450 million in 2025, supported by the expansion of indications for furmonertinib and the approval of sugemalimab in China [3][10]. - The report adjusts net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 18% and 16% respectively, reflecting changes in milestone revenue predictions and gross margin estimates [9][10]. Financial Metrics - The company reported total revenue of $838 million in 2023, with a projected decline to $630 million in 2024, followed by a gradual increase to $943 million by 2027 [10][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 54.1% in 2023 to 53.2% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [12][13]. Market Sentiment and Future Catalysts - The early achievement of profitability has significantly boosted investor confidence, marking the company as the first biotech firm in China to reach this milestone ahead of schedule [2][4]. - Upcoming catalysts include data releases from ongoing clinical trials and regulatory submissions for various products, which could further influence stock performance [5].

宏观观点 美联储 3 月如期继续暂停降息， 强调经济不确定性增加 3 月美联储会议继续暂停降息，已连续两次会议暂停降息。我们认为 会议声明和季度经济预测更新（SEP）对今年的降息态度是偏鸽的。 浦银国际观点：我们维持美联储最快 6 月重启降息，全年降息 2-3 次， 每次 25 个基点的基本预测。从经济基本面来看，2 月核心 CPI 的超预 期下行以及失业率的上升似乎有利于降息。此外，在美国大部分实体 扫码关注浦银国际研究 金晓雯，PhD，CFA 首席宏观分析师 xiaowen_jin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6437 2025 年 3 月 20 日 美联储 3 月如期继续暂停降息，强调经济不确定性增加 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 浦银国际 宏观观点 1. 会议反映了美联储对经济前景不确定性与日俱增的担忧。会议声 明删除了就业和通胀目标风险大体均衡的说辞，称经济前景不确 定性增加。不确定性的增加也表现在 SEP 经济预测的调整上：首 先，SEP 大幅下调今年的经济增速预测至 1.7%（此前为 2.1%），更 接近 ...