Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sea (SE.US) and raises the target price to $165 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2024 reached $4.95 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.9%, exceeding market expectations by 6.1% [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $590 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was $410 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.3% [2]. - The e-commerce segment showed profitability improvement, with a projected GMV growth rate of 20% for 2025 [2][4]. - Digital financial services revenue grew by 55.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven primarily by credit business [3]. - Digital entertainment revenue turned positive with a 1.2% year-on-year increase in Q4 2024, and the company expects double-digit growth in 2025 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY23, the company reported total revenue of $13.064 billion, with projections of $16.820 billion for FY24 and $20.854 billion for FY25 [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from FY24 to FY27E [4]. - The net profit is projected to increase from $151 million in FY23 to $1.450 billion in FY25 [12]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market price is $132.31, with a potential upside of 25% to the target price of $165 [7]. - The company has a total market capitalization of $75.726 billion [7]. - The report indicates that the company’s various business segments are maintaining strong growth trajectories, particularly in e-commerce and digital financial services [4].

Group 1 - Global funds are beginning to rebalance, with renewed interest in the Chinese market. From January 30 to February 26, the Chinese market saw a net inflow of $1 billion, marking the first monthly net inflow since October of the previous year [2][3][9] - The US stock market experienced a significant reduction in net inflows, dropping from $39.9 billion in January to $20.2 billion in February, while the Indian stock market turned to a net outflow of $1.5 billion [2][3] - European markets also saw increased net inflows, with Germany and France recording net inflows of $2.8 billion and $2.5 billion respectively in February [2][3] Group 2 - The breakthrough in China's AI technology, particularly the DeepSeek language model, has shifted the narrative that AI competition is solely dominated by the US. This has led to a reallocation of funds from crowded markets to those with improved sentiment [4][9] - Despite the outflow of domestic funds, passive foreign funds have significantly net flowed into the Chinese market, totaling $2.36 billion during the same period [9][10] - The report indicates that there is substantial room for active foreign funds to return to the Chinese market, as their current allocation remains below benchmark indices [9][10] Group 3 - Domestic funds experienced a net outflow of $18.33 billion from the Chinese stock market, marking the largest monthly outflow in the past five years [10] - The report highlights a clear preference for AI-related stocks among southbound funds, with significant inflows into leading companies in the internet, telecommunications, and smart driving sectors [34][36] - Notable companies receiving substantial inflows include Alibaba, China Mobile, and Ideal Auto, reflecting strong market interest in AI beneficiaries [34][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Duolingo (DUOL.US) with a target price of $380, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of $295.23 [2][5][8] Core Insights - Duolingo reported strong revenue growth of 39% year-over-year in Q4 2024, reaching $210 million, which exceeded market expectations by 2%. However, net profit of $13.9 million fell short of market forecasts [8] - The company is optimistic about 2025, projecting nearly 30% revenue growth for the year, with strong user engagement metrics, including a 51% increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) to 40.5 million and a 32% increase in Monthly Active Users (MAU) to 117 million [8] - The introduction of Duolingo Max, which includes video call features, is expected to drive further growth, contributing to a 5% increase in subscription users [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for Duolingo are as follows: - FY23: $531 million - FY24: $748 million - FY25E: $976 million - FY26E: $1,242 million - FY27E: $1,556 million [3][9] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to improve from $94 million in FY23 to $544 million by FY27, with corresponding EBITDA margins increasing from 25% in Q4 2024 to a projected 27.5% for the full year of 2025 [3][9] - The report highlights a slight decline in gross margin to 71.9% in Q4 2024, attributed to higher costs associated with Duolingo Max [8] Market Expectations - The report indicates that the market expects Duolingo's revenue growth to continue, with estimates of 31.6% to 33.4% year-over-year growth in Q1 2025 [8] - The stock has shown a significant range over the past 52 weeks, trading between $145.0 and $441.7, reflecting volatility in market sentiment [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the AI and technology sector, particularly highlighting the potential of DeepSeek to drive investment interest in both primary and secondary markets [2][21][22]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has rapidly gained attention in the AI industry, with its models DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1 demonstrating capabilities comparable to leading global AI models, particularly excelling in mathematics and programming [2][4][9]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditure by Chinese internet giants on AI, potentially doubling previous investments, which is expected to initiate a super cycle in AI infrastructure in China [2][31][35]. - The emergence of DeepSeek is expected to alleviate the pressure from U.S. semiconductor restrictions, promoting the localization of AI data centers and related infrastructure in China [2][52][60]. Summary by Sections DeepSeek's Impact on AI Models - DeepSeek's models have shown performance metrics that rival those of top-tier AI models, with DeepSeek-R1 achieving 671 billion parameters and outperforming many existing models in key areas [4][9][10]. - The cost of using DeepSeek's API is significantly lower than that of comparable models, with prices for DeepSeek-R1 at $2.19 per million tokens, which is over 90% cheaper than OpenAI's equivalent [10][20]. Investment Trends in AI - The report notes that the success of DeepSeek is likely to reignite investment enthusiasm in the AI sector, similar to the surge seen with ChatGPT, with potential valuations for AI startups expected to rise significantly [21][22]. - Chinese internet companies are projected to increase their capital expenditures substantially, with estimates suggesting a rise from RMB 200-300 billion to RMB 400-600 billion, primarily focused on AI infrastructure [31][35]. AI Infrastructure and Market Growth - The report highlights that the AI data center industry in China is poised for growth, with significant capital expenditures expected in IT-related sectors, particularly in servers, which account for approximately 70% of IT costs [22][24]. - The Chinese AI chip market is forecasted to grow significantly, with a projected market size of RMB 1,412 billion by 2024, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [56][58]. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the competitive dynamics between Chinese and U.S. tech companies, noting that while U.S. firms have been more aggressive in AI investments, Chinese companies are beginning to ramp up their efforts [35][41]. - The report also discusses the potential for DeepSeek to mitigate the impact of U.S. restrictions on AI semiconductor exports, thereby enhancing China's capabilities in AI model development [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.US) with a target price slightly adjusted to $143.0, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $120.2 [1][5][22]. Core Insights - Nvidia's revenue for FY4Q25 reached $39.331 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, exceeding previous guidance and market expectations by approximately $1 billion [2][15]. - The company anticipates a median revenue of $43 billion for FY1Q26, also above market consensus [2]. - Nvidia's gross margin for FY4Q25 was reported at 73.0%, a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to the ramp-up of Blackwell production [2][15]. - The net profit for FY4Q25 grew by 80% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing market expectations [2][15]. - The report highlights Nvidia as a key beneficiary of the AI large model industry's growth, driven by innovations from DeepSeek and the scaling law effects in various segments [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Nvidia's projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: $60.922 billion - FY2025: $130.497 billion - FY2026E: $201.305 billion - FY2027E: $252.321 billion - FY2028E: $292.164 billion - The net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2024: $29.760 billion - FY2025: $72.880 billion - FY2026E: $109.193 billion - FY2027E: $143.118 billion - FY2028E: $160.114 billion [4][13]. Market Performance and Valuation - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.9x, significantly lower than its July 2024 peak of 42.7x and below its historical average by one standard deviation, enhancing its valuation attractiveness [1][22]. - The report indicates that Nvidia's GPU products are positioned to benefit from the scaling laws associated with AI large models, which are expected to drive demand across various sectors, including startups [3][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $55 for US shares and HK$43 for Hong Kong shares, indicating a potential upside of +60% and +62% respectively [6][13]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q24 revenue of $108.5 million represents a 65% year-over-year increase and is in line with market expectations. The operating loss was slightly better than expected, primarily impacted by a foreign exchange loss of $23.42 million [2][3]. - For 2025, the company projects total product revenue between $560 million and $590 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 40.4% to 45.4%, driven by strong growth in its core product, Eiger, and stable growth in existing products [3][4]. - The report highlights the strong growth of Eiger, which achieved sales of $30 million in 4Q24, a 492% increase year-over-year, and is expected to reach approximately $150 million in sales for 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, the company reported a net loss of $81.68 million, a 14.4% decrease year-over-year, but a 96% increase quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin for products was 61.5%, stable year-over-year but down 2.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][3]. - The company’s R&D expenses decreased to $52.25 million, down 36.2% year-over-year and 20.8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating improved cost management [2]. Future Catalysts - The report suggests focusing on the upcoming data updates for DLL3 ADC and potential international expansion. Several drugs are expected to submit NDA in China, with key data updates anticipated in 2Q25 [5][13]. - The company plans to cover 85% of the market potential for Eiger by 2025, up from 65% in 2024, which is expected to further enhance sales growth [4][5]. Market Position - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately $3.716 billion, with a recent average trading volume of $22 million over the past three months [6]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of $13.4 to $36.6, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to USD 324 for US stocks, HKD 194 for Hong Kong stocks, and CNY 273 for A-shares [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue guidance for 2025 is stronger than market expectations, reaffirming the GAAP operating profit guidance [1][3]. - The company achieved a product revenue of USD 1.118 billion in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 77.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.5% [2]. - The adjusted non-GAAP operating profit for Q4 2024 was USD 78.6 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of profitability [2]. - The strong overseas sales of the drug Zebutinib contributed to a gross margin of 85.6% in Q4 2024, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Revenue Guidance - The total product revenue guidance for 2025 is set at USD 4.9-5.3 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29.6% to 40.2%, which exceeds both Visible Alpha's expectation of 27% and the previous forecast of 21% [3]. - GAAP operating expenses are projected to be USD 4.1-4.4 billion, aligning with market expectations [3]. Product Performance - Zebutinib's global sales reached USD 828 million in Q4 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of 100.5% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20% [4]. - The US sales of Zebutinib amounted to USD 616 million, a 96.7% increase year-over-year, while European sales reached USD 113 million, up 147.8% year-over-year [4]. Research and Development Progress - The company is expected to have multiple research catalysts in 2025, including the announcement of global phase II data for Sonrotoclax in the second half of 2025 [5][10]. - The company plans to initiate several phase III clinical trials in 2025 for various indications [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at USD 4.972 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 30.5% [12][16]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of USD 81 million in 2025, transitioning from a loss in previous years [12][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings with a target price of RMB 114.2, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of RMB 97.7 [3][5][9]. Core Insights - Transsion Holdings has shown a good sequential improvement in revenue and profit for Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for growth in 2025. The company is expected to rank fourth globally in smartphone shipments in 2024, with a market share of 8.7%, continuing to grow from 2023 [9][12]. - The growth drivers for 2025 include strong smartphone shipment growth, expansion in digital accessories and energy storage products, and accelerated growth in mobile internet business, benefiting from operational leverage [9][12]. - The DCF valuation method estimates a target price of RMB 114.2, with assumptions of a 1.8% risk-free rate, a 10% growth rate from 2030 to 2034, and a WACC of 6.1% [15][17]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Transsion Holdings from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 62,295 million - 2024E: RMB 68,743 million (34% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 78,105 million (10% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 89,470 million (14% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 100,537 million (15% YoY growth) [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: RMB 5,537 million - 2024E: RMB 5,590 million (123% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 6,080 million (1% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,363 million (9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 8,511 million (21% YoY growth) [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of 24.5% in 2023, decreasing to 21.4% in 2024E, and then gradually improving to 22.0% by 2027E [4][10]. Performance Metrics - Q4 2024 performance highlights: - Revenue: RMB 17,491 million, down 9% YoY but up 5% QoQ - Net profit: RMB 1,687 million, up 2% YoY and up 60% QoQ [13]. - Adjusted forecasts for 2025E and 2026E show a decrease in revenue and profit expectations due to slightly lower than anticipated market share and gross margin improvements [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings with a target price of RMB 114.2, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of RMB 97.7 [3][5][9]. Core Insights - Transsion Holdings has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in revenue and profit for Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for growth in 2025. The company is expected to rank fourth globally in smartphone shipments in 2024, with a market share of 8.7%, continuing to grow from 2023 [9][12]. - The growth drivers for 2025 include strong smartphone shipment growth, expansion in digital accessories and energy storage products, and accelerated growth in mobile internet business, benefiting from operational leverage [9][12]. - The DCF valuation method estimates a target price of RMB 114.2, with a WACC of 6.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [15][17]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Transsion Holdings from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 62,295 million - 2024E: RMB 68,743 million - 2025E: RMB 78,105 million - 2026E: RMB 89,470 million - 2027E: RMB 100,537 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 34% for 2023, 10% for 2024, and 14% for 2025 [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: RMB 5,537 million - 2024E: RMB 5,590 million - 2025E: RMB 6,080 million - 2026E: RMB 7,363 million - 2027E: RMB 8,511 million - The net profit growth rates are 123% for 2023, 1% for 2024, and 9% for 2025 [4][10]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights the following key financial ratios: - Gross margin is projected to be 24.5% in 2023, decreasing to 21.4% in 2024E, and stabilizing around 22.0% by 2027E [4][10]. - The target P/E ratios are 16.6x for 2023, increasing to 23.3x in 2024E, and then decreasing to 15.3x by 2027E [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Budweiser APAC to "Hold" with a target price of HKD 9.36, reflecting a potential upside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 8.66 [1][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the Chinese beer market is unlikely to see significant improvement in demand until 2025, with sales, revenue, and profit margins expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1]. - The company's strategy to focus on high-end and core++ products may not yield immediate benefits, and the high revenue share from ultra-premium products could negatively impact overall sales performance [1]. - Despite having clear product and channel plans for 2025, the ability to translate these into improved performance remains uncertain [1]. - Following a significant stock price increase, the current valuation (19x 2025 P/E) is considered less attractive [1]. Sales and Market Performance - In Q4 2024, Budweiser APAC's sales in China fell sharply by 18.9% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 14.8% in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company plans to focus on high-end products, particularly the Budweiser brand, while being more selective in investments in ultra-premium brands [1]. - The shift towards high-end family channels may further tilt the channel structure away from on-premise consumption [1]. Regional Insights - In South Korea, Budweiser APAC recorded high single-digit sales and revenue growth in Q4 2024, with management confident that price increases will drive growth and margin recovery [1]. - The company raised prices for high-end and ultra-premium products by 8.1% in November 2024, which is expected to significantly benefit revenue and profit margins in 2025 [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected at USD 6.134 billion, a decrease of 1.8% from 2024, with net profit expected to rise to USD 790 million, reflecting an 8.8% increase [7][16]. - The report anticipates EBITDA margins to recover to pre-pandemic levels in the South Korean market, supported by price increases and operational efficiency improvements [1][2].