Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.US) with a target price slightly adjusted to $143.0, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $120.2 [1][5][22]. Core Insights - Nvidia's revenue for FY4Q25 reached $39.331 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, exceeding previous guidance and market expectations by approximately $1 billion [2][15]. - The company anticipates a median revenue of $43 billion for FY1Q26, also above market consensus [2]. - Nvidia's gross margin for FY4Q25 was reported at 73.0%, a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to the ramp-up of Blackwell production [2][15]. - The net profit for FY4Q25 grew by 80% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing market expectations [2][15]. - The report highlights Nvidia as a key beneficiary of the AI large model industry's growth, driven by innovations from DeepSeek and the scaling law effects in various segments [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Nvidia's projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: $60.922 billion - FY2025: $130.497 billion - FY2026E: $201.305 billion - FY2027E: $252.321 billion - FY2028E: $292.164 billion - The net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2024: $29.760 billion - FY2025: $72.880 billion - FY2026E: $109.193 billion - FY2027E: $143.118 billion - FY2028E: $160.114 billion [4][13]. Market Performance and Valuation - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.9x, significantly lower than its July 2024 peak of 42.7x and below its historical average by one standard deviation, enhancing its valuation attractiveness [1][22]. - The report indicates that Nvidia's GPU products are positioned to benefit from the scaling laws associated with AI large models, which are expected to drive demand across various sectors, including startups [3][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $55 for US shares and HK$43 for Hong Kong shares, indicating a potential upside of +60% and +62% respectively [6][13]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q24 revenue of $108.5 million represents a 65% year-over-year increase and is in line with market expectations. The operating loss was slightly better than expected, primarily impacted by a foreign exchange loss of $23.42 million [2][3]. - For 2025, the company projects total product revenue between $560 million and $590 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 40.4% to 45.4%, driven by strong growth in its core product, Eiger, and stable growth in existing products [3][4]. - The report highlights the strong growth of Eiger, which achieved sales of $30 million in 4Q24, a 492% increase year-over-year, and is expected to reach approximately $150 million in sales for 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, the company reported a net loss of $81.68 million, a 14.4% decrease year-over-year, but a 96% increase quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin for products was 61.5%, stable year-over-year but down 2.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][3]. - The company’s R&D expenses decreased to $52.25 million, down 36.2% year-over-year and 20.8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating improved cost management [2]. Future Catalysts - The report suggests focusing on the upcoming data updates for DLL3 ADC and potential international expansion. Several drugs are expected to submit NDA in China, with key data updates anticipated in 2Q25 [5][13]. - The company plans to cover 85% of the market potential for Eiger by 2025, up from 65% in 2024, which is expected to further enhance sales growth [4][5]. Market Position - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately $3.716 billion, with a recent average trading volume of $22 million over the past three months [6]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of $13.4 to $36.6, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to USD 324 for US stocks, HKD 194 for Hong Kong stocks, and CNY 273 for A-shares [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue guidance for 2025 is stronger than market expectations, reaffirming the GAAP operating profit guidance [1][3]. - The company achieved a product revenue of USD 1.118 billion in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 77.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.5% [2]. - The adjusted non-GAAP operating profit for Q4 2024 was USD 78.6 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of profitability [2]. - The strong overseas sales of the drug Zebutinib contributed to a gross margin of 85.6% in Q4 2024, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Revenue Guidance - The total product revenue guidance for 2025 is set at USD 4.9-5.3 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29.6% to 40.2%, which exceeds both Visible Alpha's expectation of 27% and the previous forecast of 21% [3]. - GAAP operating expenses are projected to be USD 4.1-4.4 billion, aligning with market expectations [3]. Product Performance - Zebutinib's global sales reached USD 828 million in Q4 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of 100.5% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20% [4]. - The US sales of Zebutinib amounted to USD 616 million, a 96.7% increase year-over-year, while European sales reached USD 113 million, up 147.8% year-over-year [4]. Research and Development Progress - The company is expected to have multiple research catalysts in 2025, including the announcement of global phase II data for Sonrotoclax in the second half of 2025 [5][10]. - The company plans to initiate several phase III clinical trials in 2025 for various indications [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at USD 4.972 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 30.5% [12][16]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of USD 81 million in 2025, transitioning from a loss in previous years [12][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings with a target price of RMB 114.2, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of RMB 97.7 [3][5][9]. Core Insights - Transsion Holdings has shown a good sequential improvement in revenue and profit for Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for growth in 2025. The company is expected to rank fourth globally in smartphone shipments in 2024, with a market share of 8.7%, continuing to grow from 2023 [9][12]. - The growth drivers for 2025 include strong smartphone shipment growth, expansion in digital accessories and energy storage products, and accelerated growth in mobile internet business, benefiting from operational leverage [9][12]. - The DCF valuation method estimates a target price of RMB 114.2, with assumptions of a 1.8% risk-free rate, a 10% growth rate from 2030 to 2034, and a WACC of 6.1% [15][17]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Transsion Holdings from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 62,295 million - 2024E: RMB 68,743 million (34% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 78,105 million (10% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 89,470 million (14% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 100,537 million (15% YoY growth) [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: RMB 5,537 million - 2024E: RMB 5,590 million (123% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 6,080 million (1% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,363 million (9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 8,511 million (21% YoY growth) [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of 24.5% in 2023, decreasing to 21.4% in 2024E, and then gradually improving to 22.0% by 2027E [4][10]. Performance Metrics - Q4 2024 performance highlights: - Revenue: RMB 17,491 million, down 9% YoY but up 5% QoQ - Net profit: RMB 1,687 million, up 2% YoY and up 60% QoQ [13]. - Adjusted forecasts for 2025E and 2026E show a decrease in revenue and profit expectations due to slightly lower than anticipated market share and gross margin improvements [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings with a target price of RMB 114.2, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of RMB 97.7 [3][5][9]. Core Insights - Transsion Holdings has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in revenue and profit for Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for growth in 2025. The company is expected to rank fourth globally in smartphone shipments in 2024, with a market share of 8.7%, continuing to grow from 2023 [9][12]. - The growth drivers for 2025 include strong smartphone shipment growth, expansion in digital accessories and energy storage products, and accelerated growth in mobile internet business, benefiting from operational leverage [9][12]. - The DCF valuation method estimates a target price of RMB 114.2, with a WACC of 6.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [15][17]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Transsion Holdings from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 62,295 million - 2024E: RMB 68,743 million - 2025E: RMB 78,105 million - 2026E: RMB 89,470 million - 2027E: RMB 100,537 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 34% for 2023, 10% for 2024, and 14% for 2025 [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: RMB 5,537 million - 2024E: RMB 5,590 million - 2025E: RMB 6,080 million - 2026E: RMB 7,363 million - 2027E: RMB 8,511 million - The net profit growth rates are 123% for 2023, 1% for 2024, and 9% for 2025 [4][10]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights the following key financial ratios: - Gross margin is projected to be 24.5% in 2023, decreasing to 21.4% in 2024E, and stabilizing around 22.0% by 2027E [4][10]. - The target P/E ratios are 16.6x for 2023, increasing to 23.3x in 2024E, and then decreasing to 15.3x by 2027E [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Budweiser APAC to "Hold" with a target price of HKD 9.36, reflecting a potential upside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 8.66 [1][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the Chinese beer market is unlikely to see significant improvement in demand until 2025, with sales, revenue, and profit margins expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1]. - The company's strategy to focus on high-end and core++ products may not yield immediate benefits, and the high revenue share from ultra-premium products could negatively impact overall sales performance [1]. - Despite having clear product and channel plans for 2025, the ability to translate these into improved performance remains uncertain [1]. - Following a significant stock price increase, the current valuation (19x 2025 P/E) is considered less attractive [1]. Sales and Market Performance - In Q4 2024, Budweiser APAC's sales in China fell sharply by 18.9% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 14.8% in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company plans to focus on high-end products, particularly the Budweiser brand, while being more selective in investments in ultra-premium brands [1]. - The shift towards high-end family channels may further tilt the channel structure away from on-premise consumption [1]. Regional Insights - In South Korea, Budweiser APAC recorded high single-digit sales and revenue growth in Q4 2024, with management confident that price increases will drive growth and margin recovery [1]. - The company raised prices for high-end and ultra-premium products by 8.1% in November 2024, which is expected to significantly benefit revenue and profit margins in 2025 [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected at USD 6.134 billion, a decrease of 1.8% from 2024, with net profit expected to rise to USD 790 million, reflecting an 8.8% increase [7][16]. - The report anticipates EBITDA margins to recover to pre-pandemic levels in the South Korean market, supported by price increases and operational efficiency improvements [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 190, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HKD 163.2 [2][3][20] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2H24 is projected at RMB 38.8 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2.0%, which is below market expectations by 3.3%. However, the gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points to 32.4%, driven by growth in online music service revenue and optimized cost control. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 8.2 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 5.9 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin increasing by 8.8 percentage points to 21.1% [1][2] - Online music services continue to show strong performance, with subscription revenue growing by 19% year-on-year. The 2H24 online music service revenue is expected to reach RMB 27.9 billion, reflecting a 20.0% year-on-year increase and a 7.9% quarter-on-quarter increase. The monthly active users (MAU) are steadily increasing, and the daily active users (DAU) to MAU ratio remains above 30%, indicating high user engagement and stickiness [1][2] - The social entertainment service segment is undergoing a strategic contraction, with revenue for 2H24 expected to be RMB 10.8 billion, down 33.4% year-on-year. The company is focusing on its core music business and has simplified its app to reduce distractions from non-core services. Despite the expected decline in social entertainment revenue, cost reductions are anticipated to mitigate the impact on overall profitability [2][3] Financial Projections - The report projects the following financial metrics for NetEase Cloud Music: - FY24 revenue: RMB 7.95 billion - FY25E revenue: RMB 8.08 billion - FY26E revenue: RMB 8.63 billion - FY27E revenue: RMB 9.16 billion - Adjusted net profit for FY25E: RMB 16.2 billion - Adjusted net profit for FY26E: RMB 18.1 billion - Target P/E for FY25E: 23.2x - Target P/E for FY26E: 20.8x [3][9]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the release of the AI model DeepSeek R1 has significantly improved market sentiment, leading to a notable rebound in Chinese stock indices, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which rose by 18% from January 20 to February 21, 2025 [10][18][19] - The report indicates that the valuation repair triggered by AI breakthroughs is just the beginning of a broader re-evaluation of Chinese assets by global investors, with private enterprises actively investing in advanced manufacturing, new energy, digital economy, and AI sectors [18][19] - The report suggests that the upcoming Two Sessions in early March may initiate a new round of policy stimulus, which could further enhance market sentiment and valuation levels [18][19] Group 2 - The report notes that foreign capital is beginning to flow back into the Chinese market, with a net inflow of $1.3 billion observed from January 30 to February 19, 2025, marking the first net inflow since October 2024 [42][43] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation levels of major Chinese stock indices remain reasonable, with the MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index trading at forward P/E ratios of 11.1x and 10.2x, respectively, close to their historical averages [19][20] - The report identifies specific sectors within the Chinese market that are expected to benefit from AI developments, particularly in the computing power industry, including companies involved in servers, data centers, cloud computing, and semiconductor manufacturing [8][10][18]

Trade Policy Insights - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China, with the latter effective from February 4[5] - The tariffs are intended to reduce the trade deficit and generate fiscal revenue for tax cuts[1] - If tariffs on most countries are implemented, it could slow global economic growth and increase U.S. inflation[6] Economic Data Overview - January core inflation rose unexpectedly by 0.24 percentage points to 0.45%[9] - The labor market remains robust, but signs of weakening are expected as economic momentum slows and government layoffs begin[17] - Retail sales in January showed a surprising decline, influenced by seasonal adjustments[24] Inflation Projections - The 10% tariff on Chinese imports is estimated to raise U.S. inflation by 0.15 percentage points, while a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico could add 0.77 percentage points[10] - If Trump's proposed tariffs are fully enacted, inflation could rise by as much as 2 percentage points[10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The forecast for interest rate cuts has been adjusted to 2-3 times this year, with the first cut not expected before June[3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by inflation concerns and the ongoing trade war[34] Financial Market Trends - The U.S. dollar index has seen a slight decline of 1.7% in February, attributed to weaker economic data and stronger currencies from trading partners[38] - The forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield is set at 4.1% by year-end, with potential downward pressure if rate cuts occur[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the smartphone industry, suggesting a favorable investment environment supported by government subsidies and technological advancements [2][3]. Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 reached 329 million units, exceeding previous forecasts with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4% and a year-on-year growth of 1% [1][5]. - The report anticipates a 2.8% growth in global smartphone shipments for 2025, with China's smartphone shipments expected to grow by 5.4% [2][7]. - The Chinese government's new policies are expected to significantly stimulate smartphone demand and shipment growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Global Smartphone Shipments - In Q4 2024, China shipped 76.36 million units, benefiting from local consumer electronics subsidy policies, while other regions like Asia and the Middle East also showed strong performance [5]. - For the entire year of 2024, global smartphone shipments are projected to be 1.236 billion units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [6]. Brand Performance - In Q4 2024, brands like Huawei and vivo saw significant year-on-year shipment growth of 21% and 13%, respectively, while Apple and Samsung experienced slight declines [5][6]. - The report highlights that Huawei and Xiaomi are rapidly increasing their global market shares, with Huawei's share rising to 4.1% and Xiaomi's to 13.6% in 2024 [6]. Future Projections - The report projects that by 2025, global smartphone shipments will reach 1.271 billion units, with a 2% increase from previous forecasts [7]. - The anticipated growth in shipments is attributed to the expected benefits from government subsidies and the rapid penetration of AI technologies in smartphones [2][3].