本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 工业生产总值连续超预期加速。工业生产总值同比增速加快 0.2 个百分点到 7%，远高于市场预期的 5.2%，两年复合增速亦反弹（1-2 月：4.7%，12 月： 4%）。除了出口增速在 1-2 月显著改善之外，低基数效应也是此次工业生产 数据远超预期的重要原因——作为优化防控政策后的首个春节，去年 1-2 月 工业生产总值增速仅录得 2.4%。我们仍然相信工业生产可继续得益于工业 去库存周期的结束，但仍需警惕疲软的内需、PPI 负读数持续时间延长以及 重新制定的节能工作目标的影响。 短期内，我们相信政策重点将放在"两会"制定政策的落实上。财政政策或 将继续领衔经济复苏。随着 1 万亿元特别国债和 3.9 万亿元专项债额度的发 布，稳投资依然是财政政策的一大主线。而且，依照"新一轮大规模设备更 新和以旧换新"细则的发布，我们初步估算该政策起码可以拉动 0.6 个百分 点的固定资产投资和 0.6 个百分点的社会零售额同比增速，具体成效仍需观 察地方上的落实情况。货币政策方面，尽管 3 月 15 日发布的 2 ...

新能源汽车行业 | 行业追踪 新能源汽车行业观察：价格竞争依然 沈岱 浦 激烈，电池降本让利用户 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6435 春节假期结束后，中国新能源车行业再次涌现了一波较为密集的 际 价格竞争。我们测算了去年以来上游电池原材料成本下降在整车 黄佳琦 成本端的影响，以衡量车企在利润端的变化。 科技分析师 sia_huang@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0355 投资建议：综合考虑车企降价行为和电池降本让利消费者的关系， 对于在今年具有能够支撑销量、具备强竞争力的新车型的车企， 2024年3月18日 行 售价端的价格降低和配置升级传递到利润端的影响相对较小。因 业 此，我们仍然看好理想汽车（LI.US/2015.HK）的盈利能力，也建 追 踪 议投资人关注零跑汽车（9863.HK）后续的表现。 进入 2024 年，中国新能源车行业竞争依然激烈，符合我们在展 望报告中对于今年行业增量竞争态势仍将延续的判断。春节假期 结束后，许多车企开始通过各种方式来实现直接或间接降价。在 车企纷纷进行售价下探、配置升级的过程中，为了厘清车企的降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 0.8, representing a potential upside of 19.4% from the current price of HKD 0.67 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see an improvement in profit margins in 2024 driven by better channel structure and retail discount stability, despite a challenging demand environment [1]. - The focus for 2024 will be on stabilizing retail discounts and improving profit margins, with a target of maintaining overall revenue flat while achieving a 1 percentage point increase in both gross and operating profit margins [1]. - The company aims for a long-term operating profit margin expansion of 1 percentage point annually, targeting a 7% margin by 2026 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly by 1% in 2024, following an 8% increase in 2023 [2][5]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to increase by 28% in 2024, reaching RMB 626 million, following a significant recovery from a low base in 2023 [2][5]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The operating profit margin is forecasted to expand to 4.2% in 2024, up from 3.7% in 2023, with a long-term goal of 5% by 2026 [5][7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 5.1 for 2024, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5]. Channel and Inventory Management - The company has successfully reduced inventory levels to a healthier state, which is expected to positively impact gross margins in 2024 [1]. - There has been a shift towards improving the channel structure, with a decrease in the wholesale and B2B channel revenue contribution, while B2C sales are anticipated to grow [1]. Store Performance - The company closed 570 stores in 2023, resulting in a 14% reduction in the number of direct-operated stores, but managed to achieve a 1% revenue growth in these stores, indicating improved single-store performance [1][6]. - The performance of existing stores will be crucial in determining whether the company can exceed its revenue targets for 2024 [1].

本报告作者谨此声明：（i）本报告发表的所有观点均正确地反映作者有关任何及所有提及的证券或发行人的个人观点， 并以独立方式撰写；（ii）其报酬没有任何部分曾经，是或将会直接或间接与本报告发表的特定建议或观点有关；（iii） 该等作者没有获得与所提及的证券或发行人相关且可能影响该等建议的内幕信息／非公开的价格敏感数据。 浦银国际证券有限公司 宏观经济 | 数据点评 资料来源：CEIC，浦银国际 资料来源：CEIC，浦银国际 本报告是由从事证券及期货条例(香港法例第 571 章)中第一类(证券交易)及第四类(就证券提供意见)受规管活动之持 牌法团–浦银国际证券有限公司 （统称"浦银国际证券"）利用集团信息及其他公开信息编制而成。所有资料均搜集 自被认为是可靠的来源，但并不保证数据之准确性、可信性及完整性，亦不会因资料引致的任何损失承担任何责任。 报告中的资料来源除非另有说明，否则信息均来自本集团。本报告的内容涉及到保密数据，所以仅供阁下为其自身利 益而使用。除了阁下以及受聘向阁下提供咨询意见的人士（其同意将本材料保密并受本免责声明中所述限制约束）之 外，本报告分发给任何人均属未授权的行为。 2024-03-13 6 ...

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 哔哩哔哩（BILI.US/9626.HK）：广告 赵丹 首席互联网分析师 浦 增长保持强劲，目标三季度盈利 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 银 (852) 2808 6436 国 杨子超，CFA 际 业绩基本符合预期。公司4Q23收入人民币63.5亿元，同比增长3.4%， 互联网分析师 符合市场预期；调整后净亏损为 5.6 亿元，市场预期亏损6.3 亿元； charles_yang@spdbi.com 调整后亏损率同比收窄12.6pp 至 8.8%。日活用户数同比增长 7.9%至 (852) 2808 6409 1 亿，日均时长95 分钟，流量同比增长 7%，月活用户数为 3.36 亿。 2024年3月8日 财 务 哔哩哔哩（9626.HK） 广告增长保持强劲，自研游戏进一步收缩。公司4Q23 广告增长保持 模 目标价（港元） 98 型 强劲，同比增长 28%，其中效果广告同比增长超 60%，主要受益于游 潜在升幅/降幅 +14% 更 戏和电商行业广告需求增加以及公司广告投放能力提升。公司交易业 目前股价（港元） 85.65 新 52周内股价区间（港元） 67 ...

科技行业 | 行业追踪 浦银国际 行业追踪 科技行业更新： 基本面大体稳定， 市场情绪仍待进一步修复 科技行业更新：基本面大体稳定，市 场情绪仍待进一步修复 在春节之后，我们沟通了多家科技和新能源车行业公司，并且进 行了芯片行业的渠道调研。结合部分境外上市公司的业绩/业绩 会，我们对于大科技行业进行了更新。 在行业经历了 1 月份股价低位急跌后，大部分公司的股价在 2 月 份取得明显的反弹，尤其在春节之后反弹幅度更加明显，但是大 部分尚未回到 12 月底时的位置。所以，我们感受到二级市场情 绪逐步好转，但是对于 2024 年业绩展望仍然信心不足。我们期 待市场在终端需求稳定、能见度提升后，进一步修复。 在新能源车板块中，行业销量受到来自春节假期等季节性因素影 响。同时，渠道调研结果显示春节期间行业整体销售情况同比表 现亦偏弱，部分原因是今年春节假期较长。渠道端预期整体订单 的好转或要等到 3 月份，特别是车企集中动作之后。 春节假期结束后，行业再次涌现一波较为密集的价格竞争。这也 符合我们在展望报告中对于今年行业增量竞争的趋势判断。同时， 我们认为年初的销量表现，在全年维度对于行业销量和渗透率保 持向上趋势的 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 京东（9618.HK/JD.US）：股东回报加大，低 赵丹 价战略延续，业绩未见明显好转 首席互联网分析师 浦 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 银 (852) 2808 6436 国 京东业绩整体优于预期，但未见明显好转，股东回报力度加大。公司 杨子超，CFA 际 互联网分析师 持续加大投入低价战略，预计短期利润率改善空间有限，维持“持有” charles_yang@spdbi.com 评级及目标价 103港元/26 美元。 (852) 2808 6409 2024年3月7日 业绩整体优于市场预期，加大股东回报：公司 4Q23 收入为人民币 3061 京东（9618.HK） 亿元，同比增长3.6%，优于市场预期 2.1%，主要受益于带电品类增长 公 推动；商品收入同比增长3.7%，服务收入同比增长3.0%；调整后净利 目标价（港元） 103 司 潜在升幅/降幅 +15% 研 润 84 亿元，同比增长 9.9%，调整后利润率为 2.7%，同比提升 0.1pp。 目前股价（港元） 89.2 究 股东回报方面，公司宣布2023 年股息0.76 美元/ADS（合计约 12 ...

Industry Overview - The AI software industry is rapidly evolving, with Sora being a milestone product following ChatGPT, signaling a shift towards AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) [1] - AI is considered one of the most promising investment directions for the next decade, with AI+ expected to reshape most industries [1] - The report focuses on AI software companies outside the "Big Seven" (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta), highlighting 10 key players in the US market [1] Key Companies and Their AI-Driven Innovations Adobe (ADBE US) - Adobe is a leader in creative design software with flagship products like Photoshop and Acrobat PDF, boasting a high profit margin of nearly 40% [1] - The company introduced Firefly, a generative AI model, in March 2023, addressing copyright issues by using Adobe Stock for training data [3] - Adobe's revenue is primarily driven by its Digital Media segment, contributing 73% of total revenue in FY23, with Creative Cloud accounting for 80% of this segment [5] - The company holds a dominant market position in graphic design and PDF software, with a combined market share of 80% and 95% respectively [6] CrowdStrike (CRWD US) - CrowdStrike is a global leader in endpoint security, leveraging AI to prevent cyber threats through its Falcon Platform [9] - The company's subscription revenue accounts for 94% of total revenue, with a TAM (Total Addressable Market) of $100 billion, expected to grow to $225 billion by 2028 [10][11] - CrowdStrike holds a 17 7% market share in endpoint security, slightly ahead of Microsoft [12] Duolingo (DUOL US) - Duolingo is the largest language learning platform globally, with 88 million monthly active users, integrating gamification and AI to enhance user engagement [16] - The company launched Duolingo Max, a premium AI-powered product, in collaboration with OpenAI's ChatGPT-4 [16] - Duolingo's revenue is expected to grow by 36% in FY24, driven by subscription and advertising income [21] MongoDB (MDB US) - MongoDB is a leading NoSQL database platform, with over 200 million downloads and 30,000 customers globally [23] - The company's Atlas product, a fully managed cloud database, contributes 66% of total revenue [25] - MongoDB holds a 46% market share in the NoSQL database sector, significantly ahead of competitors like Amazon DynamoDB [26] Palantir (PLTR US) - Palantir specializes in big data analytics, with strong ties to the US government and a growing commercial business [29] - The company's AIP platform, launched in April 2023, integrates large language models into private networks for enhanced data analysis and decision-making [31] - Palantir's revenue is expected to grow by 20% in 2024, with a focus on expanding its commercial client base [32] Salesforce (CRM US) - Salesforce is the global leader in CRM, with a 23 8% market share, and has been expanding its AI capabilities through acquisitions and in-house development [34][37] - The company introduced AI Cloud in June 2023, offering generative AI services to enhance productivity in sales, marketing, and customer service [34] - Salesforce's revenue is projected to grow by 9% in FY25, with a focus on subscription and support services [38] ServiceNow (NOW US) - ServiceNow is a leader in IT service management, covering 85% of Fortune 500 companies, with a strong focus on AI-driven automation [40] - The company launched Now Assist for Virtual Agent in June 2023, leveraging generative AI to improve customer service experiences [42] - ServiceNow's subscription revenue is expected to grow by 21 5%-22% in FY24, driven by platform upgrades and cross-selling [45] Snowflake (SNOW US) - Snowflake is a leading cloud data warehouse provider, offering scalable and flexible data storage solutions [48] - The company's revenue model is based on usage, with a focus on optimizing storage and reducing cloud costs for customers [49] - Snowflake holds an 18 3% market share in the data warehouse sector, competing with Amazon Redshift and Databricks [50] UiPath (PATH US) - UiPath is a global leader in RPA (Robotic Process Automation), with a 36% market share, automating repetitive business processes [53][56] - The company's revenue is primarily driven by subscription services, accounting for 51 4% of total revenue, with a TAM of $610 billion expected to grow to $930 billion [55] - UiPath's revenue is projected to grow by 21 5% in FY24, with a focus on expanding its cloud-based offerings [57] Unity (U US) - Unity is a leading real-time 3D development platform, used in 70% of the top 1000 mobile games, with applications extending beyond gaming to industries like film and automotive [59] - The company's revenue is split between Create Solutions (content development) and Grow Solutions (marketing services), with a focus on monetization and user acquisition [60][61] - Unity's core revenue is expected to grow by 3% in FY24, with a focus on expanding its non-gaming applications [63] Financial Performance and Valuation - Adobe's FY24 revenue is projected at $21 4 billion, with a 10% YoY growth, and an adjusted EPS of $17 8 [7] - CrowdStrike's FY25 revenue is expected to reach $3 92-$3 99 billion, with a 29% YoY growth [13] - MongoDB's FY24 revenue is forecasted at $1 65-$1 66 billion, with a 29% YoY growth [27] - Palantir's FY24 revenue is projected at $2 65-$2 67 billion, with a 20% YoY growth [32] - Salesforce's FY25 revenue is expected to be $37 7-$38 billion, with a 9% YoY growth [38] - ServiceNow's FY24 subscription revenue is projected at $10 55-$10 57 billion, with a 21 5%-22% YoY growth [45] - Snowflake's FY25 product revenue is expected to reach $3 25 billion, with a 22% YoY growth [51] - UiPath's FY24 revenue is projected at $1 28-$1 29 billion, with a 21 5% YoY growth [57] - Unity's FY24 core revenue is expected to be $1 76-$1 8 billion, with a 3% YoY growth [63]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) and identifies it as a sector favorite [5][22]. Core Views - Budweiser APAC's 4Q23 EBITDA growth exceeded expectations, driven by a significant increase in sales price, resulting in a 31.3% year-on-year increase in normalized EBITDA [5]. - The company is expected to outperform its peers in 2024 due to several factors, including continued premiumization in product offerings in China, sustained price increases in Korea, reduced raw material cost pressures, and ongoing cost control measures [5]. - The report highlights the strong brand matrix in the premium segment, which positions Budweiser APAC favorably against other Chinese beer players, especially given its lower valuation compared to peers [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 4Q23 sales price increased by 14.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than other Chinese beer players [5]. - The company reported a net profit of $852 million in 2023, with a projected increase to $1,089 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.9% [11][19]. - Revenue is expected to grow from $6,856 million in 2023 to $7,180 million in 2024, a 4.7% increase [11][19]. Market Trends - The report notes a strong demand for premium and super-premium beer products among high-income consumers in China, while lower-income consumers are becoming more cautious in their beer consumption [5]. - Budweiser APAC's lower exposure to mass-market products (less than 60% of sales) mitigates the impact of consumption downgrades in the mass market [5]. Valuation - Budweiser APAC's 2024 EV/EBITDA is projected at 8.2x, below the industry average of 9.6x, indicating a significant undervaluation [5]. - The target price for Budweiser APAC is set at HKD 16.7, representing a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of HKD 12.9 [6][22]. Regional Performance - In Korea, Budweiser APAC experienced a 23.2% year-on-year increase in normalized EBITDA in 4Q23, attributed to successful price increases [5]. - Despite uncertainties in the Korean market, the report anticipates a substantial expansion in EBITDA margin for 2024 due to the effects of previous price increases and a favorable comparison to last year's lower EBITDA base [5].