Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of $61.5, representing a potential upside of 27.1% from the current price of $48.4 [2][24]. Core Insights - Same-store sales performance is identified as a key factor influencing the company's 2025 earnings and stock price. The company anticipates a slight decline in same-store sales for 2024 due to adjustments in customer pricing to maintain steady traffic. However, operational efficiency improvements are expected to offset the negative leverage impact, allowing for slight margin expansion [1][4]. - The management's cautious outlook for 2025 reflects uncertainties in same-store performance, which is expected to significantly impact restaurant profit margins. The company aims for systematic revenue growth in the mid-single digits for 2025, with a target of opening 1,600-1,800 new stores [4][6]. - The competitive landscape is observed to be stabilizing, with some industry players reducing discounts and slightly increasing menu prices. Yum China plans to maintain stable pricing for KFC while lowering prices for Pizza Hut to attract more customers [4][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yum China are as follows: - 2023: $10,978 million - 2024: $11,303 million (3.0% growth) - 2025: $11,720 million (3.7% growth) - 2026: $12,509 million (6.7% growth) - 2027: $13,281 million (6.2% growth) [6][9]. - Net profit estimates are projected as: - 2023: $827 million - 2024: $911 million (10.2% growth) - 2025: $924 million (1.4% growth) - 2026: $996 million (7.8% growth) - 2027: $1,099 million (10.4% growth) [6][9]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Yum China is approximately $18,253 million, with an average daily trading volume of $102.9 million over the past three months [2][4]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of $28.5 to $52.0, indicating significant volatility [2][4].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 业绩会要点及展望：1）2024 年，联发科旗舰手机 SoC 贡献约 20 亿 美元，超出管理层预期。2）天玑 9400 获得 OPPO 和 vivo 采用，公 司预期今年更多机型采用天玑旗舰芯片。3）今年汽车收入将逐季提 升。4）AI 趋势将为公司端侧 AI SoC 系列产品带来更多机会。 估值：我们采用 DCF（Discounted Cash Flow，现金流量贴现法）估 值方法。我们假设联发科 2030-2034 的成长率为 18%，永久增长率为 3%，WACC（Weighted Average Cost of Capital，加权平均资金成本） 是 13.1%，上调联发科目标价至 1,820.8 新台币，潜在升幅 19%，对 应 2025 年市盈率为 24.1x。 投资风险：全球经济持续疲软，智能手机、新能源车等需求不及预 期；地缘冲突导致关税上升，提前备货透支未来出货量；中国手机国 补带动需求持续性较弱；AI 智能手机渗透率上扬速度较慢，渗透中 低价格段手机速度较慢；半导体周期下行，行业竞争加剧，拖累公司 利润；研发等费用增速过快；AI 芯片迭代慢于预期。 图表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $55 for US shares and HK$43 for Hong Kong shares, indicating a potential upside of 100% from the current price [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve product net revenues of $104 million in Q4 2024 and $394 million for the full year 2024, primarily driven by the continued growth of Aigamod [2][3]. - Aigamod is projected to generate approximately $91 million in sales for the year 2024, surpassing the previous guidance of $80 million [3]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by the end of 2025, with significant catalysts expected in 2025, including the launch of Aigamod, DLL3 ADC data readouts, and potential overseas licensing agreements [1][4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net loss of $250 million for 2024, with a Q4 net loss of $63 million, while the gross margin is expected to be around 63.6% for the year [2][14]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from $394 million in 2024 to $538 million in 2025, with a further increase to $801 million in 2026 [15][17]. - The company anticipates a decrease in R&D expenses in 2024 compared to 2023, while sales and administrative expenses are expected to rise slightly [2][14]. Product Pipeline and Catalysts - DLL3 ADC (ZL-1310) is on track for multiple Phase 1 data readouts in 2025, which could lead to potential overseas licensing agreements [4][5]. - The company plans to submit NDAs for six additional drugs in China in 2025, including KarXT and TIVDAK, with significant clinical data readouts expected [5][13]. - Aigamod's commercialization team is expected to remain stable at around 170 personnel, supporting its growth trajectory [3][5].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 高通（QCOM.US）：FY1Q25 业绩好于 预期，端侧 AI 拉动公司长期业务增长 我们略微上调 FY2025 和 FY2026 年盈利预测，调整目标价至 205.7 美 元。潜在升幅 17%，重申"买入"评级。 重申高通的"买入"评级：高通 FY1Q25 业绩及 FY2Q25 指引均略高 于市场一致预期，其手机、汽车、IoT 业务均有较好增长支撑。首先， 从今年来看，中国出台智能手机补贴政策拉动智能手机销售，尤其是 高端旗舰机型，出货量增长明显。这为高通 2025 财年提供较好的基 本盘支撑。其次，我们预期高通智能座舱以及舱驾一体的解决方案将 在今明两年持续放量。最后，高通受益于端侧 AI 在智能手机快速渗 透，估值有望提升。高通当前远期市盈率 15.1x，仍然具备吸引力。 FY1Q25 业绩强劲增长，高于指引上限；公司指引 FY2Q25 业绩稳定 成长：高通 FY1Q25 收入为 116.7 亿美元，同比增长 17%，环比增长 14%，高于指引区间上限，高于市场一致预期。其中，QCT 业务收入 达到 101 亿美元，创历史新高，主要由于安卓手机出货量、IoT 及汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Spotify (SPOT.US) with a target price adjusted to $700, indicating a potential upside of 12% from the current price of $626 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance exceeded expectations, with FY24 Q4 revenue reaching €4.242 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a gross margin improvement of 5.6 percentage points to 32.2% [3][4]. - User growth remains strong, with FY24 Q4 Monthly Active Users (MAU) increasing by 12% to 675 million, driven by emerging markets [4]. - The company has demonstrated strong pricing power, with Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) rising by 5% to €4.85, contributing to a 16.9% increase in Premium revenue [4]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 Q4 revenue: €4.242 billion, up 15.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations by 1.9% [3]. - FY24 Q4 operating profit: €477 million, with a net profit of €367 million, achieving a record net profit margin of 8.7% [3]. - FY25E/FY26E revenue projections: €18.1 billion and €20.8 billion respectively, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be €2.736 billion and €3.552 billion [5][6]. User and Revenue Growth - FY24 Q4 MAU reached 675 million, with subscription users at 263 million, primarily driven by growth in emerging markets [4]. - Premium revenue for FY24 Q4 was €3.705 billion, reflecting a 16.9% increase YoY, supported by both user growth and ARPU increase [4]. Advertising Business Outlook - The advertising segment showed modest growth, with Ad-Supported revenue increasing by 7.2% to €537 million, although this was partially offset by pricing weakness [5]. - The company is enhancing its programmatic advertising technology and seeking more partnerships to boost ad inventory sales, with expectations for significant growth in this area by 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industry, particularly highlighting DeepSeek's potential to disrupt the market and challenge existing players like OpenAI [2]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has achieved significant cost innovation, with overall costs being only 5%-10% of OpenAI's, including training, inference, and commercialization pricing [2][12]. - The shift in the AI industry is moving from a "compute race" to "algorithm optimization," emphasizing the importance of algorithm density and ecosystem collaboration over mere resource monopolization [2][27]. Summary by Sections Cost Innovation - DeepSeek's training cost is $5.58 million, significantly lower than OpenAI's $1 billion, achieved through an efficient MoE architecture and sparse activation strategy [7][8]. - Inference costs for DeepSeek are $0.14 per million tokens for input and $0.28 for output, compared to OpenAI's $2.5 and $10 respectively, showcasing a cost advantage of 1/10 to 1/20 [9][10]. - Commercialization pricing for DeepSeek is $0.48 per million tokens, far below OpenAI's $18, making it more accessible for budget-sensitive enterprises [10][11]. Impact on AI Industry Chain - The low-cost advantage of DeepSeek is reshaping the AI industry chain, leading to a transformation in cloud computing, large models, and application layers [22][27]. - In cloud computing, the demand for inference is expected to exceed 70% of total GenAI demand by 2026, prompting hardware manufacturers to innovate [22]. - The rise of edge computing and hybrid cloud solutions is driven by DeepSeek's support for consumer-grade hardware, indicating a shift from centralized cloud to edge deployment [23]. Large Models and Open Source Ecosystem - DeepSeek's approach is breaking the "compute monopoly" and promoting technological democratization, with its open-source model achieving 1.1 million downloads within six days [24][25]. - The focus is shifting from pre-training to reinforcement learning and inference optimization, fostering the development of vertical models in sectors like finance and healthcare [25][26]. Application Layer Transformation - DeepSeek's low-cost API enables small developers to create AI applications affordably, unlocking potential in underserved markets [26]. - Traditional cloud providers are transitioning to high-margin "AI + industry solutions" models, creating new growth opportunities [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumption industry, particularly in the context of the Spring Festival, indicating an improvement in consumer sentiment and spending [6]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival data shows a record high in travel, with over 2.3 billion people traveling, a 6% increase year-on-year, reflecting a growing consumer willingness to spend [1][5]. - The overall consumption scale during the Spring Festival continues to rise, with payment transaction numbers and amounts increasing by 25.7% and 17.1% respectively during the first seven days of the holiday [1][2]. - Domestic travel demand remains strong, with 501 million domestic travelers during the Spring Festival, a 5.9% increase compared to last year [5][6]. - The introduction of government subsidies and consumption vouchers has positively impacted consumer spending during the holiday period [2][6]. - The performance of the film industry during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, with total box office revenue surpassing 10 billion RMB, setting a new record [1][2]. Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - The report highlights a significant increase in travel intentions, with the Spring Festival holiday extending to eight days, leading to a rise in multi-segment travel [2][5]. - The implementation of visa-free policies and the recovery of international flight capacity have contributed to a 6.3% increase in cross-border travel compared to last year [6]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending in retail and dining sectors showed resilience, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 5.4% increase in sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival [2]. - The average ticket price for movies during the Spring Festival increased to 50.8 RMB, up from 49.2 RMB in 2024, indicating a willingness to spend more on entertainment [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the progress of the Online Travel Agency (OTA) industry driven by cross-border travel demand and the recovery of hotel prices post-Spring Festival [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China, with China retaliating by imposing tariffs of 10%-15% on certain U.S. goods, which aligns with market expectations. This is not expected to cause significant market fluctuations in the short term, but the uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies suggests a structural market trend [2][5][26] - The release of DeepSeek is anticipated to narrow the valuation gap in the AI industry between China and the U.S., prompting investors to focus on stocks within the AI supply chain [2][5][26] Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights that the sectors most affected by the new tariffs include electronics, machinery, toys, and textiles, which are heavily reliant on imports from China. Conversely, sectors with lower dependency, such as fuel and minerals, will experience less impact [12][16] - The report also notes that the short-term market sentiment is likely to be cautious, with investors advised to avoid sectors negatively impacted by the tariffs and currency fluctuations [5][7][19] AI Industry Insights - DeepSeek's introduction is expected to accelerate the development of AI technologies by shifting the focus from merely increasing computational power to optimizing algorithms. This change is projected to foster the emergence of more efficient and cost-effective AI models [23][24] - The report suggests that the AI industry in China is likely to benefit from increased domestic production capabilities in response to U.S. restrictions on advanced technologies, which may enhance the growth of the AI supply chain in China [25][26] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that the market will exhibit structural trends rather than significant volatility in the short term, with a recommendation for investors to be cautious and to focus on sectors that are less sensitive to currency fluctuations, such as information technology and healthcare [5][19][26] - It is suggested that the AI sector, particularly companies involved in AI chips, cloud computing, and core technologies, will attract investment interest due to the narrowing valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. AI companies [24][26]

Core Insights - DeepSeek is expected to accelerate the development of AI, impacting the stock prices of major tech companies, particularly chip manufacturers like Nvidia, which saw a significant decline [3] - The long-term advantages of large tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Apple are expected to remain intact despite the emergence of new algorithms [3] - Nvidia is anticipated to continue benefiting from the AI industry's growth, as its software advantages and existing market expectations mitigate the impact of new algorithms [3] Industry Overview - The development of AI technology relies on three core components: algorithms, computing power, and data. Limitations in one area will drive innovation in the others [3] - The emergence of more efficient and cost-effective AI models is likely to stimulate growth in application layers, creating new business models [3] - The AI industry is still in its early stages, and while sentiment may be negatively affected in the short term, the long-term outlook remains positive [3] Short-term Market Dynamics - The introduction of DeepSeek may lead to a temporary decline in demand for chips from major tech companies, affecting sentiment towards chip manufacturers like Nvidia [3] - Despite potential short-term volatility, large tech companies are unlikely to drastically reduce chip purchases due to the competitive landscape [3] - The emergence of DeepSeek may weaken the competitive position of closed-source models from companies like OpenAI and Google's Gemini [3] Company Analysis - A list of 24 companies in the AI industry chain has been compiled for reference, highlighting their market capitalization and recent performance [4] - Nvidia (NVDA) has a market cap of $294.05 billion and experienced a 16% decline in the past week, while other companies like AMD and Microsoft also faced declines [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with a strong competitive moat in a rapidly changing industry environment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to face significant pressure in its 2024 performance, with a projected decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 70.47% to 75.36% year-on-year due to a transformation phase and a substantial drop in revenue from its cosmetics business [1][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 52.2, reflecting a potential upside of 7.9% from the current price of RMB 48.4 [3][8]. - The company is undergoing a reform in its functional skincare segment, which is anticipated to lead to a turnaround by 2025, although the timing of this recovery remains uncertain [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - The updated financial forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 5,188 million, a decrease of 9.6% from previous estimates - 2024E net profit is forecasted at RMB 159 million, down 61.3% from prior predictions - The net profit margin for 2024E is expected to be 3.1%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points [2][9]. - For 2025E, revenue is expected to be RMB 5,727 million, a reduction of 16.7%, and net profit is projected at RMB 457 million, down 35.8% [2][9]. - The 2026E forecasts show a continued decline, with revenue expected at RMB 6,420 million and net profit at RMB 520 million, representing decreases of 19.8% and 39.7% respectively [2][9].