Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rebounded unexpectedly in January, increasing by 0.24 percentage points to 0.45%, surpassing the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - The overall CPI also accelerated by 0.11 percentage points to 0.47%, exceeding market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose to 3%, while the core CPI reached 3.3%, both up by 0.1 percentage points[1] Employment Data - In January, non-farm payrolls added 143,000 jobs, falling short of the market expectation of 175,400 jobs and the previous month's figure of 307,000 jobs[2] - The unemployment rate decreased for two consecutive months, dropping from 4.09% in December to 4.01% in January[2] - Average hourly earnings showed improvement in month-on-month growth, although year-on-year growth remained stable[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The rebound in core CPI was primarily driven by a significant increase in super core services, which accelerated by 0.46 percentage points to 0.71%[1] - Transportation services saw a notable rise in inflation, with car insurance prices surging to 2.0% in January from 0.46% in December[1] - Seasonal adjustments and price resets at the beginning of the year contributed to the inflation rate in January, while the previously resilient owner-equivalent rent has shown signs of decline[2] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The recent tariff increases on Chinese imports (10%) and Canadian/Mexican imports (25%) are projected to raise U.S. inflation by 0.15 percentage points and 0.77 percentage points, respectively, if fully passed on to consumers[5] - In extreme scenarios, if tariffs on all Chinese goods rise to 60%, the overall inflation could increase by up to 2 percentage points[5] - The forecast for the core PCE inflation rate for 2025 has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% due to these tariff actions[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to resume interest rate cuts until at least June, given the recent employment and inflation data[6] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in March and May meetings, with a potential reduction of 2-3 times by 25 basis points throughout the year[6] - The ongoing tariff situation and inflation concerns will lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach regarding interest rate adjustments[6]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the target price for Meta to $892 and maintains a "Buy" rating [3][5]. Core Insights - Meta's overall performance exceeded expectations, with strong advertising revenue growth. The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of $48.39 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $20.84 billion, up 49% year-over-year, significantly surpassing market expectations [3]. - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-over-year, while Reality Labs revenue remained flat. The guidance for Q1 2025 indicates a 12% year-over-year revenue growth, with capital expenditures expected to rise to $60-65 billion in 2025 [3]. - The report adjusts the 2025 revenue forecast to $187.5 billion and net profit to $62.63 billion, reflecting strong growth in advertising and the potential for AI to enhance advertising efficiency [3][4]. Financial Projections - The updated financial projections for 2025 include: - Revenue: $187.5 billion (previously $187.6 billion, change: 0.0%) - Gross Profit: $150.94 billion (previously $151.68 billion, change: -0.5%) - Operating Profit: $72.83 billion (previously $76.85 billion, change: -5.2%) - Net Profit: $62.63 billion (previously $66.09 billion, change: -5.2%) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon (AMZN.US) with a target price raised to $282, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of $232.76 [3][4]. Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 2024 revenue is projected at $187.79 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth, slightly exceeding market expectations. The net profit is expected to reach $20 billion, marking an 88% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing market forecasts. E-commerce revenue is anticipated to grow by 9%, while AWS revenue is expected to rise by 19%. However, the guidance for Q1 2025 is relatively weak, with revenue expected between $151.0 billion and $155.5 billion, which is 3.6% below market expectations. Capital expenditures are projected to increase to $105 billion in 2025 [1][2]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at $704.87 billion, a slight decrease of 0.1% from previous forecasts. Gross profit is projected at $349.94 billion, down 0.7%, with a gross margin of 49.6%. Operating profit is expected to be $80.58 billion, reflecting a 6.1% decrease, with an operating margin of 11.4%. Net profit is forecasted at $67.11 billion, also down 6.1%, with a net margin of 9.5% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US) with a target price of $40, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price of $29.2 [4][18]. Core Insights - The recent volatility in Luckin Coffee's stock price is attributed to a significant increase in coffee bean prices over the past month, raising concerns about profit margins. However, the report suggests that the short-term impact on Luckin's performance is limited, and the long-term outlook remains positive for market share expansion and profit margin improvement [1][2]. - Despite a nearly 30% increase in stock price over the past two months, the current valuation at 17.6x 2025 P/E is still considered attractive, with substantial room for growth [1][4]. - Luckin Coffee's high inventory levels and a significant order with Brazil worth RMB 10 billion for 240,000 tons of coffee beans from 2025 to 2029 are expected to mitigate the impact of rising coffee bean prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 13.293 billion in 2022 to RMB 50.520 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.9% in 2022 and 87.3% in 2023 [11][13]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 488 million in 2022 to RMB 4.268 billion in 2026, with a notable growth of 483.3% in 2023 [11][13]. - The report anticipates a steady improvement in profit margins, with the return on equity (ROE) projected to remain strong at around 25.6% in 2025 [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that rising coffee bean prices may lead to a consolidation in the Chinese coffee market, benefiting larger players like Luckin Coffee due to their stronger supply chain and purchasing power [2][3]. - Luckin Coffee's innovative product offerings and marketing strategies are expected to enhance brand loyalty and capture consumer mindshare, opening up long-term growth opportunities [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the coffee industry is described as intense, but the report suggests that rising coffee bean prices could lead to reduced promotional activities among major players, allowing them to maintain profitability through price increases [2][3]. - Luckin Coffee's ability to adapt its product mix, as demonstrated by the successful launch of its light milk tea product, positions it well to withstand cost pressures [2][3].

Core Insights - BYD's launch of the "Tianshen Eye" high-level intelligent driving system marks the beginning of a new era in intelligent driving, aiming for rapid market penetration with 21 initial models equipped with this technology [1][2] - The pricing strategy for the initial models ranges from 70,000 to 200,000 RMB, with the entry-level intelligent driving model starting at 69,800 RMB, which is lower than previous expectations [2][3] - The report maintains a forecast of 15.78 million units for China's new energy passenger vehicle sales by 2025, representing a 28% year-on-year growth and a penetration rate of 53.7% [3] Industry Overview - The intelligent driving and smart cockpit Tier 1 suppliers are expected to benefit significantly from BYD's push for intelligent driving in the mass market, with entry-level intelligent driving domain controllers priced as low as 400-500 RMB [3][6] - The penetration rate for mid-to-high level intelligent driving in China's new energy vehicle sector is currently below 20%, indicating substantial growth potential for related chip solutions [6][7] - The demand for automotive cameras is anticipated to increase significantly due to BYD's Tianshen Eye C, which features 12 cameras, benefiting companies like Sunny Optical and Q Tech [7] Market Dynamics - The introduction of cost-effective lidar products priced below 2,000 RMB is expected to complement the mass market penetration of intelligent driving technologies [7] - The report suggests that the proliferation of intelligent driving in the mass market will enhance consumer awareness of autonomous driving products and services, facilitating the transition from initial to mature stages in the autonomous driving industry [7]

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度中国宏观洞察：消费动能尚可， 关税战提前增加经济不确定性 中美关系：关税战提前到来，4 月 1 日或是下一个关键时点。特朗普 在上任不到月余就开始加征关税早于预期，尽管循序渐进式的加征方 式符合预期。我们估算加征关税将拖累中国 GDP 0.6 个百分点。关税战 带来的高度不确定性将继续影响中国，接下来需关注在 4 月 1 日贸易 调查截止日到来时，关税战是否会进一步升级。 1-2 月数据回顾：消费表现尚可。从需求端来看，春节消费数据——不 论是耐用品消费还是服务消费（旅游、电影票房、餐饮）均表现不俗。 房产销售在春节前大致和去年同期持平。从供给端来看，数据部分因 为春节停工因素回落。 政策展望：2 月传统政策真空期或更重政策落实，重点聚焦 3 月初两 会制定的经济目标和财政预算。尽管关税战开始时间早于我们和市场 的预期，但在关税战前景未明、且 1-2 月缺乏硬数据发布的情况下，我 们认为政府并不急于加码政策支持。近期财政政策或侧重在升级的设 备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的落实上。"适度宽松"的货币政策短 期内或继续受制于汇债两市的压力。然而，如果金融市场条件允许， 那么 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of $61.5, representing a potential upside of 27.1% from the current price of $48.4 [2][24]. Core Insights - Same-store sales performance is identified as a key factor influencing the company's 2025 earnings and stock price. The company anticipates a slight decline in same-store sales for 2024 due to adjustments in customer pricing to maintain steady traffic. However, operational efficiency improvements are expected to offset the negative leverage impact, allowing for slight margin expansion [1][4]. - The management's cautious outlook for 2025 reflects uncertainties in same-store performance, which is expected to significantly impact restaurant profit margins. The company aims for systematic revenue growth in the mid-single digits for 2025, with a target of opening 1,600-1,800 new stores [4][6]. - The competitive landscape is observed to be stabilizing, with some industry players reducing discounts and slightly increasing menu prices. Yum China plans to maintain stable pricing for KFC while lowering prices for Pizza Hut to attract more customers [4][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yum China are as follows: - 2023: $10,978 million - 2024: $11,303 million (3.0% growth) - 2025: $11,720 million (3.7% growth) - 2026: $12,509 million (6.7% growth) - 2027: $13,281 million (6.2% growth) [6][9]. - Net profit estimates are projected as: - 2023: $827 million - 2024: $911 million (10.2% growth) - 2025: $924 million (1.4% growth) - 2026: $996 million (7.8% growth) - 2027: $1,099 million (10.4% growth) [6][9]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Yum China is approximately $18,253 million, with an average daily trading volume of $102.9 million over the past three months [2][4]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of $28.5 to $52.0, indicating significant volatility [2][4].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 业绩会要点及展望：1）2024 年，联发科旗舰手机 SoC 贡献约 20 亿 美元，超出管理层预期。2）天玑 9400 获得 OPPO 和 vivo 采用，公 司预期今年更多机型采用天玑旗舰芯片。3）今年汽车收入将逐季提 升。4）AI 趋势将为公司端侧 AI SoC 系列产品带来更多机会。 估值：我们采用 DCF（Discounted Cash Flow，现金流量贴现法）估 值方法。我们假设联发科 2030-2034 的成长率为 18%，永久增长率为 3%，WACC（Weighted Average Cost of Capital，加权平均资金成本） 是 13.1%，上调联发科目标价至 1,820.8 新台币，潜在升幅 19%，对 应 2025 年市盈率为 24.1x。 投资风险：全球经济持续疲软，智能手机、新能源车等需求不及预 期；地缘冲突导致关税上升，提前备货透支未来出货量；中国手机国 补带动需求持续性较弱；AI 智能手机渗透率上扬速度较慢，渗透中 低价格段手机速度较慢；半导体周期下行，行业竞争加剧，拖累公司 利润；研发等费用增速过快；AI 芯片迭代慢于预期。 图表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $55 for US shares and HK$43 for Hong Kong shares, indicating a potential upside of 100% from the current price [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve product net revenues of $104 million in Q4 2024 and $394 million for the full year 2024, primarily driven by the continued growth of Aigamod [2][3]. - Aigamod is projected to generate approximately $91 million in sales for the year 2024, surpassing the previous guidance of $80 million [3]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by the end of 2025, with significant catalysts expected in 2025, including the launch of Aigamod, DLL3 ADC data readouts, and potential overseas licensing agreements [1][4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net loss of $250 million for 2024, with a Q4 net loss of $63 million, while the gross margin is expected to be around 63.6% for the year [2][14]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from $394 million in 2024 to $538 million in 2025, with a further increase to $801 million in 2026 [15][17]. - The company anticipates a decrease in R&D expenses in 2024 compared to 2023, while sales and administrative expenses are expected to rise slightly [2][14]. Product Pipeline and Catalysts - DLL3 ADC (ZL-1310) is on track for multiple Phase 1 data readouts in 2025, which could lead to potential overseas licensing agreements [4][5]. - The company plans to submit NDAs for six additional drugs in China in 2025, including KarXT and TIVDAK, with significant clinical data readouts expected [5][13]. - Aigamod's commercialization team is expected to remain stable at around 170 personnel, supporting its growth trajectory [3][5].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 高通（QCOM.US）：FY1Q25 业绩好于 预期，端侧 AI 拉动公司长期业务增长 我们略微上调 FY2025 和 FY2026 年盈利预测，调整目标价至 205.7 美 元。潜在升幅 17%，重申"买入"评级。 重申高通的"买入"评级：高通 FY1Q25 业绩及 FY2Q25 指引均略高 于市场一致预期，其手机、汽车、IoT 业务均有较好增长支撑。首先， 从今年来看，中国出台智能手机补贴政策拉动智能手机销售，尤其是 高端旗舰机型，出货量增长明显。这为高通 2025 财年提供较好的基 本盘支撑。其次，我们预期高通智能座舱以及舱驾一体的解决方案将 在今明两年持续放量。最后，高通受益于端侧 AI 在智能手机快速渗 透，估值有望提升。高通当前远期市盈率 15.1x，仍然具备吸引力。 FY1Q25 业绩强劲增长，高于指引上限；公司指引 FY2Q25 业绩稳定 成长：高通 FY1Q25 收入为 116.7 亿美元，同比增长 17%，环比增长 14%，高于指引区间上限，高于市场一致预期。其中，QCT 业务收入 达到 101 亿美元，创历史新高，主要由于安卓手机出货量、IoT 及汽 ...